Ryan & Ana On MIA
Ryan and Ana cover all things Miami development and real estate, the good, the bad the drama.
Ryan & Ana On MIA
Miami's Real Estate Resilience: Market Misconceptions, Urban Dynamics, and Policy Impacts
Discover why Miami’s real estate market is far from crashing, despite what some major media outlets claim. As we unpack the latest data from the Q3 2024 report, you'll learn how soaring median prices and a surge in cash transactions bolster the city's robust property scene. We challenge the misinformation flooding the industry, shining a light on the necessity for accurate journalism that respects facts rather than fearmongering headlines.
Next, we're taking you on a journey through the rapidly evolving Miami landscape, where urban development meets community resistance. From the bustling growth on Northeast 6th Street to debates ignited by a new Target in Overtown, we explore the economic forces driving change and the identity politics that complicate them. Our discussion balances the need for new housing with the community’s concerns, arguing for progress while respecting history.
Finally, join us as we zoom out to compare homelessness policies and tax strategies across the United States, with a keen focus on states like California and Illinois. As Florida enacts new camping bans and Illinois proposes taxing millionaires, we consider how these policies might shift population dynamics, particularly towards the security and luxury that Miami offers. Dive into the allure of Miami's burgeoning cultural scene, highlighted by new hot spots like Casa at Gale, and see how these elements shape the city’s magnetic pull on buyers both local and national.
Hello everyone, Welcome to episode number 28 28. So this is an exciting week. I released my Q3 2024 report last week and the beat goes on. Shall we say, median pricing is at all-time highs for single-family. There's a bit of market divergence there because, as I keep saying, we can't add more inventory vertically. For single-family Pricing was up 10% and then for condos actually up 1% year over year with no segmentation. So despite that pressure at the lower end of the market, and the older end.
Speaker 1:Right, correct. Despite that pressure, overall the market is not plummeting, boys and girls, far from it. And also in my report, which you can download at analyticsmiami, I break down cash across the board of every little sub-segment that there is. And we have a very, very heavy cash market. And the higher up you go in price and the more luxury you get, especially on a price per square foot basis, the more cash it is. So I'm saying this point because there are still alarmist headlines that keep coming out. It's like this is the madness keeps going. Stop the madness, stop the madness. It's bubbles, fundamentally, are not built on cash.
Speaker 2:Yes, almost, I can't think of an example, you need that like on a t-shirt, I think I do need that like a sign Bubbles are not built on cash. Yeah.
Speaker 1:And bubbles are a phenomenon. Where a market, an asset class, crashes, it falls in price quickly. It's a market crash. It's usually that we see the bubble pops. So we look at bubbles, we identify them in retrospect and usually they're built upon easy usage, irresponsible usage of easy debt, and that inflates the price of the asset class. Lots of easy free money and then at some point the underlying assets can no longer service the debt and it crashes.
Speaker 2:Pretty basic math.
Speaker 1:Right. This is not what we have by any stretch of the imagination, Even at a million dollars. Miami-dade condos in Q3 were 72% all cash.
Speaker 2:That's insane.
Speaker 1:So, and again, the higher up you go past 2,000 a square foot. They were 81% or 82% all cash. So I'm saying all of this again because we keep seeing these ridiculous articles that at this point I'm starting to believe are politically motivated, or at least a little bit biased.
Speaker 1:You don't say I know you don't say so. I spoke back in July about a completely fabricated or misrepresented, we'll say, article in Newsweek that took this Realtorcom data. The Realtorcom data was not specific to Miami-Dade County, if you recall. It was an aggregate data, aggregate, kind of tri-county, whatever city data set, and the Realtorcom thing had asking prices year over year and it said it had fallen in this aggregate of Miami. Something else, something else. It was three areas. I couldn't reproduce those numbers for any of the areas or the aggregate, but whatever, it wasn't even specific to Miami. They even pretend to be specific to Miami and it was asking prices.
Speaker 1:Fine, that got picked up by Newsweek. And then that Newsweek thing got picked up by everybody and it was broken telephone, broken telephone, broken telephone. Now last week Business Insider publishes an article with a list like top 10 places where the market's going to crash and they have a 1 through 10, and they have a picture for each city and it's a vertical list and some data points. They have Miami as number one Most likely to crash, right, and they're completely copy-pasting the Newsweek article from July.
Speaker 2:And that was a copy-paste from Realtorcom.
Speaker 1:Right and it was incorrect what they wrote, correct. And now at least Newsweek 1 was dated like it referenced the date of the data that it misrepresented. The Business Insider article has no mention of when this data is from, so it implies that it's current and it is not current. It is incorrect. It's neither current nor correct, but it implies both in this article. And the article again says they're basing this top 10 list Miami's number one on the premise that the asking prices are down. Whatever the article said.
Speaker 1:11 point something percent right, asking prices for Miami. Now, is it the city? Is it the county? Is it condos? Is it town? Is it South Florida? What do they mean by Miami? And is it? What is it? What is it? But anyway, the point is, no matter how you look at it, be it condos, be it single family, be it county level, be it city level, none of these asking prices are down year over year. And the resale prices again, especially single family, are up 10% year over year.
Speaker 1:So what are they talking about? They completely copy pasted a Newsweek article that misrepresented weird data from Realtorcom that was regional aggregate and the Newsweek article said it was Miami data and it was not. That's where it started and now they're reprinting it in October, pretending like it's new information. And it's not and it was never correct in the first place. It's insane. It's so wrong, it's shocking and actually it makes me wonder this. I happen to know this is very wrong because I'm an expert in this niche subject. So I look at this and it jumps out at me as completely wrong. It makes you wonder how much else in the news is completely wrong and you are not aware. I don't think this is a one-off, because if they can publish, they can copy paste another article from months ago as new, never do any fact checking. We'll call it. Where's the journalistic responsibility? They have a huge platform and they are printing lies. I only caught this because I'm an expert. What else is a lie that I'm not aware of?
Speaker 2:I think a lot of it also comes down to. You know, everyone is optimizing for the clicks and the views and I've learned this because I started venturing into YouTube stuff with live streaming and all that and the amount of I don't want to call it clickbait optimization, but I don't know what else to call it is like just insane.
Speaker 1:So yes, but then also the journalist who wrote this is based in California.
Speaker 2:Okay.
Speaker 1:And she actually contacted me a week before this article came out on LinkedIn saying LinkedIn messaged me saying, Hi, I write in real estate, you send me some information type of thing, and so I actually sent her a preview of my Q3 report. With current information that's accurate.
Speaker 1:Okay, and she never answered me and then they reprinted this fake stuff. That same journalist, young woman based in California so I'm sorry, my little spidey sense in my head is going off that and she went to UC Berkeley. She's young, she's female, no offense, I'm being sexist and categorizing here. I will bet money that she's a flaming liberal and that this is all contrary to her identity politics and the fact that Florida is doing well.
Speaker 2:Very interesting.
Speaker 1:Correct, and so I emailed the entire editorial board of Business Insider, of course you did All of them Super Anna.
Speaker 1:Yes, I did, and including one of the founders of the organization, and I sent them a link to that article. I sent them a link to the Newsweek where it all started, where they can see it's a copy paste of that Newsweek article. And then I also sent them the real numbers and I said, guys, this is urgent, you have a platform, there's some responsibility here and you're printing completely incorrect information. And they had not answered me. Granted, I sent it Friday night because I'm a weirdo. I did this at Friday at 1am. We do have a weekend. People who are not me take weekends and don't work and it's also a long weekend.
Speaker 1:Correct. So we'll give them until Tuesday end of day to see if they answered. If they answer, and if they don't, we're going to make a video saying stop the madness and call out this nonsense Because, honestly, it's egregious. There has to be some journalistic responsibility. Yeah, it's just awful.
Speaker 2:Yeah, I mean, I think, like I said, it comes down to something I've been saying all the time is that Miami is so far out of the norm that people don't understand why the market is behaving or doing what it's doing. Correct, correct, and, yes, there probably is some journalistic malpractice in there somewhere, but people just don't understand why it's doing it. So they're trying to do not Occam's Razor, not Occam's Razor. Occam's Razor is not that. Yeah, yeah.
Speaker 1:That's the simplest explanation. Is the explanation? But I don't think so, because I don't think it's an accent that she's in California. Okay, don't yeah I really don't. I think it's, I think it's media bias.
Speaker 2:I think it's like in her psyche to be biased and I think they're all angry that we're taking their taxpayers well, also I, you know, I, like I said, going back to youtube, I kept, I keep seeing videos like why everyone's leaving florida? Why the same?
Speaker 1:yeah, why? Why the? Why the market is collapsing? There's there's this guy I'm not the only one, you're right, there's this.
Speaker 2:is it acacenture? Look at that guy, reventure. I'm sure he's a nice guy but, like, all he does is clickbait videos about Florida and Miami.
Speaker 1:And apparently he's been doing it for years.
Speaker 2:Yeah, and he gets hundreds of thousands of views.
Speaker 1:It's the doom porn. We saw this with the hurricane yeah. People love, for some reason, entertain the notion of maximum destruction.
Speaker 2:Yeah.
Speaker 1:It's a. Thing.
Speaker 2:Yeah.
Speaker 1:They made these AI simulations of 15 foot quarters of water destroying everything in their site. People just get off on this. It's a thing.
Speaker 2:But it's just like I know you get the clicks for it and you get the attention. I wouldn't be able to put my face on that. I know I wouldn't. I wouldn't. No, I know I'm't, I wouldn't. I mean, I'm pretty shameless online, but like, but like. I wouldn't be able to put my face to that sort of clickbait.
Speaker 1:I couldn't. No, I couldn't either. It's just not in my nature.
Speaker 2:Yeah.
Speaker 1:But no, it's everywhere, and so this business insider is the latest egregious example of complete fabrication of what's happening. And so I mean single family median home sale price, resale prices, the month of September up 10% year over year. Wow, yeah and okay. Inventory levels across the board are up year over year, but they plummeted. This is not a bad thing. We need inventory.
Speaker 2:And I mean there's I keep saying like a broken record is the older bottom end of the market is in trouble. Yeah, it's the. That is no fabrication or, since it's in trouble, correct, and neither of us know or anyone knows what's going to happen there. We just don't unless I don't know. I just I don't know, no one knows, no, but the we said this last time is we have this bifurcated market that is going to cause the new stuff to do well and the old stuff to do badly.
Speaker 2:Simple math. Yep, I've been saying this for years, so this adds to the bifurcation, the market that is going to cause the new stuff to do well and the old stuff to do badly. Simple math.
Speaker 1:Yep, I've been saying this for years. This adds to the bifurcation. The bifurcation was already in play because the nature of the wealth and talent migration is also goes hand in hand with polarization, belief systems, wealth gap. All of that that's happening on a global scale actually Global scale at a national scale, where the super high end of the markets is outperforming the rest, because we are in a period of, one can say, wealth polarization across the board, and so I saw this happening years ago. I said it's going to benefit from that.
Speaker 1:And then the wealth migration sorry, the migration to the United States is very much of people who have some resources. They're moving to places that they feel are more conducive to whatever it is they're doing. But the higher people who earn money are the ones who are moving at a larger percentage than those who do not, and so that's where the country is reshaping, and so the higher end of our market would have benefited from that anyway. It was already bifurcated, but now this actually makes it even more so, because the lower end is getting extra hurt. So lower end was basically never attracting the wealth and talent migrants. It just is what it was, but now it's actually getting hurt by this law too. So it's kind of getting a double whammy.
Speaker 2:Yeah, and that's it. Just, it is what it is. Speaking of math, I was scootering around yesterday and I went to my favorite spot on Northeast 6th Street and First Ave and I was looking, I took my photo and I take photos there and I was posting about it and there was people in the comments were like oh no, it's like condos for rich people and investors, investors that was sort of what people were saying underneath that tweet and I was like I just it just boggles me. Listen, I'm not very good at math, but I do understand the basic math of supply and demand and I just I can't understand why he will not get through their head like supply and demand is like the simplest economic thing in capitalism.
Speaker 2:it's like literally the simplest thing and I just I don't try to understand what don't get it like they struggle with it. Oh no, I. I hate that we're building this new thing because it's it's going to be for rich people and whatever, and I'm just like every unit that comes online, from ultra luxury to section eight, helps the housing market every single one correct and that's why I was talking about northeast six.
Speaker 1:There is, you know, ultra luxury to Section 8. Helps the housing market. It all goes to the housing supply, every single one.
Speaker 2:Correct and that's what I was talking about. Northeast 6. There is, you know, you have condo hotel, you have attainable luxury, you have short-term rental, you have actual hotel, a condo hotel, like you have every, basically every possible product in that little section and that's fabulous. Like it's not all, for investors, there's going to be multifamily rentals there that will start at probably $2,100 or $2,200. So it's all there and it's all helping the supply and demand.
Speaker 1:Correct. It's all part of the same equation. Yeah, but people can't separate away from their own identity politics. That's what it is, and it ends up being colored somehow.
Speaker 2:I agree what it is and ends up being colored somehow, I agree, but a lot of the the hate mail that I get is from local people here in miami.
Speaker 1:No, for them too, I mean yes correct, because their identity politics is somehow tied to. This is just for rich people it's bad yes and they can't extract. They can't separate from that enough or their own feeling of whatever being wronged in some capacity to recognize that's actually adding to the entire housing stock.
Speaker 2:Yeah, that is what I don't understand, because I do get the point that I understand gentrification, I understand the mechanics of it, but if you don't build, you end up in San Francisco land or New York City land. It's a predictable script, yeah it's so predictable, and the fact that people say, oh no, another high rise, more concrete, whatever. And I just like. I see these tweets and I'm just like oh, I also posted about the new Target in Overtown it just opened, which is oh.
Speaker 1:I didn't know that. That's exciting.
Speaker 2:It's fabulous. It's an urban Target, that's their term. It's a little smaller than normal Target, but it has all the stuff, and one of the local personalities in Miami retweeted the tweet that I did of it and 80% of the tweets from that person's retweet were negative, like gentrification. Oh my gosh, Overtown is. You know, Overtown is over.
Speaker 1:God forbid. We have stores where we can buy things, and it's not Hermes, it's Target.
Speaker 2:And I just I was sitting there thinking about it and I'm like do you realize that since the 1970s or 80s, overtown by any measure has been I don't want to call it a wasteland, but nothingness, right, nothing, I mean it's been.
Speaker 1:Why would you wish that upon people?
Speaker 2:Yeah, like, why would you want to go back to that? And it hasn't been the overtale people have in their minds since like the 1950s, that is, half a century ago.
Speaker 1:People say the same things in Miami Beach to justify NIMBYism. It's the same psychology everywhere. It's a thing.
Speaker 2:It just rocks my brain that this Target is this Target and everything associated, and this Target also has 500 actually affordable housing units with it for seniors, like actually affordable, I'm talking like $900 rents, wow, for a brand new unit. That's amazing. It's not Section 8, but whatever the-.
Speaker 1:Senior housing Senior housing.
Speaker 2:But like actually affordable. It's also going to have an Aldi, a Burlington Coat Factory, a Starbucks, whatever Sounds great and I just I don't know. It just kind of makes me like how do people are that ingrained that new development equals bad? That to me, is wild. It's one thing, coming from California, where people have a political leaning on it, but like locals like what do you? What do you want Miami to be Like? Do you, do you want it to be a backwater, you know, a tropical backwater forever?
Speaker 1:I think people, some people would be happy with that People feel fine comfort in what they know, and I think that all of this stems from some type of insecurity where they feel left behind. But it doesn't have to be that way. This is one of those life lessons that if you pigeonhole yourself and say that you're being left behind, then you will be.
Speaker 2:Yeah, and people tell us like oh, you know, I want to go back to Miami before COVID and I don't know, before 2017 or whatever, and I'm like those are not helpful.
Speaker 1:mental games yeah, it's not helpful.
Speaker 2:You. Those are not helpful. Mental games. Yeah, it's not helpful. You can't. Yes, would I like my rent to be $1,800 for a penthouse and a brickle? Sure, I would. But that's not that delusional fantasy land, it's just not helpful to even think this way. Yeah, it's like nothing works that way and all those units we're talking about, they will help, they will keep my rent from being $8,000 a month. Correct, like San Francisco Correct. But the world doesn't go backwards, it only goes forwards.
Speaker 1:Yep.
Speaker 2:So I just I don't know I was feeling some type of way about that. I was like and I don't even respond to those because I see them, I don't just there's nothing you can say to those people to let them know this is helpful.
Speaker 1:Well, we have that one guy whenever we make often make a tweet about something happening in New York City. That guy who answer I don't know this guy, I don't answer him. He'll answer 10 tweets with some links about something happening in New York I'm like that's great, oh, fantastic.
Speaker 1:I mean I said New York is not going to die Wonderful. I grew up in New York City. I love New York City. I'm so glad that something is happening there. I've never wished bad things for New York City and what I've always been is that London is a huge, amazing city, but it was not the capital of the world at one point. New York didn't mean that stuff was not built in London. It didn't just decay and go away. But it shifts. There's a circulation it's not.
Speaker 2:It's nothing is a sum nothing is a zero-sum game, not in this case, no, yeah um, listen, I mean you had the, the not paradigm, but with paradigm of, you know, new york city and san francisco and la and dc chicago like being super cities and covid changed that speaking the topic of chicago and illinois okay I saw a tweet right before I got here that the current governor, or so what?
Speaker 1:what was it in Illinois that they are just proposed a 3% tax on millionaires to close their budget gap?
Speaker 2:I mean speaking of budget gaps. I was reading that San Francisco is closing schools because they have a budget shortfall.
Speaker 1:Amazing.
Speaker 2:And these are they're closing schools, like in urban inner core areas, not like far-flung suburbs, because they can't afford them.
Speaker 1:Wow.
Speaker 2:Yeah so.
Speaker 1:California also stopped, or was it Los Angeles? Los Angeles, san Francisco? Probably the same psychology they stopped accounting for how they spend money in homelessness.
Speaker 2:Oh yeah, Because it's just.
Speaker 1:The slush fund needed to exist Well that was.
Speaker 2:I think we talked about this, but there was a ruling by the Supreme Court recently that so up until very recently, california had this law that they couldn't take. They couldn't forcibly remove someone in to help unless they had a bed for every single homeless person in the city. So I need to help you. You're homeless, right, but there's 800 people in the city that are also homeless. I don't have 800 beds, so I can't force you to go get help because I don't have beds for the rest of them.
Speaker 1:That makes no sense.
Speaker 2:Yeah, and that was the Supreme Court ruling, that that is ridiculous law. So now they don't have to have beds for all of them to help one person.
Speaker 1:Well, that's good.
Speaker 2:Yes, that's at least logical. It is logical and there's a whole other problem with homelessness that we have to solve and whatever, but that was a good thing. And also you can take this as negative or positive, but the no camping outside went into effect in Florida October 1st.
Speaker 1:That's right, that's right, that's right.
Speaker 2:So you can't camp in public areas. So you know it's. And the interesting is that cities have to enforce that they can't not do.
Speaker 1:It can't right yeah all this sets a tone. I found the tweet. It says illinois is considering a three percent tax on millionaires to solve the state's property tax problems per business insider. Illinois is hemorrhaging taxpayers and general population, as is the city of Chicago. So I've been saying forever, haven't I been saying this? I said that our feeder jurisdictions are going to double down on their hostilities to capital. I think I've said this in every talk I've given and I'm kind of having deja vu.
Speaker 1:Not deja vu, it's schadenfreude, but, like part of me wishes, I wasn't correct because I just see it. I see the primary forces making this happen and the motivations behind it and I don't see it reversing because, as I keep saying, these politicians are going to keep pandering to the growing percentage that does not pay in, because their only objective is to stay in office. So shit like this is going to keep happening. So what's going to happen?
Speaker 2:Oh my God. So shit like this is going to keep happening. So what's going to happen? Oh my god, you're already losing this population. More of them will leave. Welcome to florida. Yeah, one of my favorite lines about taxes. I'm not sure who wrote it or who said it, but they said trying to tax your way into prosperity is like bombing for peace. Right, correct?
Speaker 1:no, I mean well, what's gonna happen here? It doesn't work and we get things like this that are so obvious. You already have a state and a city within that state that is hemorrhaging taxpayer population, tax-paid population, and you're going to impose a tax, another wealth tax. Yeah, what do you think is going to happen?
Speaker 2:Look what happened in Seattle. Jeff Bezos left.
Speaker 1:Yes, well, they had a tax targeting five people. He accounted for 40 or 45% of the projected revenue.
Speaker 2:Him, Bill Gates. Steve Ballmer Just left. He's the boss Bye. He lives in Coconut Grove now or somewhere. No, oh, Billionaire's Bunker, the.
Speaker 1:Indian Creek. He bought three properties there.
Speaker 2:He spent a quarter billion dollars there. It's like the other change you find in your couch cushions $250 million is more than change for him.
Speaker 1:Maybe it's like a nice dinner he had to sell a couple more stocks. It's not like buying a Ferrari. That's nothing. This is more. You know. He had to call his accountant.
Speaker 2:I saw a story recently. I don't know who it was from, but it was about the security on Indian Creek. It was very interesting.
Speaker 2:They have like private Israeli security forces Basically, and then they have cameras with infrared things that like you can like there's like beams around it. So if you like, trip it, like and like, people will find like that they have and they have private cops on jet skis. So if you try and even get close you're going to get. They'll be like hi, but yeah it's, I mean that'll be some special forces guy and it's very. It was very interesting. I'll send you the article when I find it. But it was a really interesting article and it was like some. I think it was like Business Insider or New York Magazine. They did an actual like in-depth story about. It was. It was very interesting, fascinating.
Speaker 1:I'm surprised yeah. And there definitely was an Israeli connection, because they they're using some sort of like software something.
Speaker 2:It was like Massad, I got this. So on to some more positive stuff. Like I said, Sixth Street's popping off Gale is fully open. That restaurant I sent you the photo of the restaurant that's going to be opening At the Gale. Yeah, Casa.
Speaker 1:The first floor one, the huge one. Yeah, it's a great spot. Casa something yes, it has an.
Speaker 2:the huge one. Yeah, it's a great spot, casa something.
Speaker 1:Yes, it has an enormous pizza oven.
Speaker 2:Yes, I can't wait.
Speaker 1:I know it's not open yet. I think it opens November or so it's in November?
Speaker 2:yes, yeah, yeah.
Speaker 1:It's a really cool space Inside. It's really nice. I've been there like 100 times during construction. Biggest pizza oven in Miami. I could be wrong, but it was the something like the something best pizza oven.
Speaker 2:It's going to be an Instagram wonderland because the outdoor area is very like aesthetic with lights and trees, and all the influencers are going to be there for sure Super nice.
Speaker 2:Think of influencers. The Museum of Ice Cream is still popping in my World Center. We need to go. It has a line every weekend. That was very smart on the developers thing, because I thought at first it was kind of an awkward space because it's literally right on the promenade and it's just sort of there. But it has a line all the time and it makes my world center look like there's a million people there. None of the stores are open yet.
Speaker 1:Oh wow smart.
Speaker 2:So it's a line. The other restaurant that's open there across the street is 60 Vines. It's a line. The other restaurant that's open there across the street is 60 Vines. It's a wine bar. So every basic girl in Miami will be there and all the guys that like the basic girls will be there as well. I can think of a few people we know that will be there, but yes, that's there. Earl's is going to be opening, ray-ban's already opened. My World Center is really starting to sort of come together. It's taking its very sweet time, but there's also going to be a very high-end gym there as well. Club Studio Container store is opening in November. It's all happening, and the Apple store is nearing completion. There's a lot. Oh, speaking of my World Center, adam Neumann.
Speaker 1:Oh yes, Flo House House Is that called Flo. Flo is the apartments. Flo House is speaking of my world center adam newman.
Speaker 2:Oh yes, flow house, house, it's not called flow. Flow is the apartments. Oh yeah, flow house is the condos. It's very interesting. My developers are feeling that, feeling that whole let's build this as an apartment and then at the end switch it to condos. Because pmg did that with society to ulcer, and then they went from flow tower 2 to flow house.
Speaker 1:So it's, I don't know. I think they're realizing oh, we can sell these real fast and get our money back to Elser.
Speaker 2:And then they went from Flow Tower 2 to Flow House, so it's I don't know. I think they're realizing oh, we can sell these real fast and get our money back.
Speaker 1:The model works Well. I think that they're seeing the demand is holding.
Speaker 2:Yeah.
Speaker 1:That's what I think they're seeing.
Speaker 2:It's going to be very interesting I'm not. It's going to be very interesting to see who they think is going to buy these Flow House things because because Flow was targeted to young mobile like Gen Z, maybe slightly younger millennials- Like a magic mushrooms room.
Speaker 2:I'm sure they have it. So at my World Center they built like a sales center, but they made it. I think I sent you the pictures. They made it like a cafe and like a sales center. So I'm like, oh look, you can go get your coffee and a condo and then join the cult of Adam Neumann.
Speaker 1:That's what it is. No, I know, I know. All in one they're psychedelics, though they have to be somewhere.
Speaker 2:Is he going to be barefoot, like selling the condos? Might be.
Speaker 1:I would not be surprised.
Speaker 2:I would not be surprised either. But you can look at the photo on my Twitter it and there's like a single chair up front. I'm like, oh great.
Speaker 1:I mean look, the cult model works. It works for those super churches.
Speaker 2:Scientology.
Speaker 1:There's tons of people who want to be part of a cult.
Speaker 2:Yeah, I would be really bad in a cult, me too.
Speaker 1:We both would be. That'd be horrible.
Speaker 2:We'd be kicked out and, like the military and a cult, we would both be really bad. We'd be like really bad, be like, do that, why, why, who are you? Excuse me, who are you? We'd probably be like locked away in like their back rooms, and they would separate us from the others, because we would breed dissent. Yes, exactly, we'd put ideas in other people's minds.
Speaker 2:Yeah, we're not. We'd be a contagion in a cult. They would separate us. We would be good leading cults, not being cult members. Yeah, sorry, it's Sagittarius straight, I know, but anyways it's very interesting. It's also interesting because they're going to share an amenity deck, so you're going to have the renters and the condo owners mixing on the pool deck. Oh, usually they separate them. It's going to be Not in the flowy new age. I guess there's no poor dork in the new age.
Speaker 1:Yeah, no, poor dork.
Speaker 2:It's going to be a very interesting combination and I'm kind of just watching an interest because it's going to. It's something new.
Speaker 1:Something's coming, yeah, percolating.
Speaker 2:Yeah, it's different. Also, I also noticed that he's getting right. So you have Flo slash Kayoba on this side. You have the little pedestrian walkway there. They're getting ready because they're going to build a five-story retail and co-working space in between the pedestrian and my World Towers. So there's going to be like a little thing. They're getting ready to build that. So there's a lot happening in my World Center and also there's a lot happening in the 11 District. The first 11 Tower is like soaring yeah, it is, it's already. It looks like it's getting close to topping out and beyond is like three stories out of the ground.
Speaker 2:It is, and then West 11th is getting ready for site work. They're flying. I think they either did really well on selling the towers or they sold them for too little, and so they have to make the money up on the other projects.
Speaker 1:That actually is the challenge with selling too quickly.
Speaker 2:Yeah.
Speaker 1:Because you can increase prices at milestones.
Speaker 2:Yeah, I think both 11s sold out.
Speaker 1:They sold very quickly. Yeah, the Lofty sold very quickly and that was a challenge for them.
Speaker 2:That's still a challenge.
Speaker 1:And that may or may not be why they're deleting their construction now.
Speaker 2:Well, they're going full stream now. Okay, speaking of new projects.
Speaker 1:Ooh, this one's exciting Ryan sent me some pretty pictures today.
Speaker 2:Someone a source who does not wish to be identified sent me some tea today.
Speaker 1:Let's spill it.
Speaker 2:So, as you know, is it car properties C-A-R? Is that car? I think so Car. They've been trying to make one over point work forever, forever. I mean. I think they were trying to make work when I moved here in 2017.
Speaker 1:I've lost track. Yeah, it's been a while.
Speaker 2:And they've launched it three times, and it's just. They've actually tried to make that parcel work since they built Mint and Wind in Ivy 2008. Because that was supposed to be another part of it.
Speaker 1:They've been trying to make it work forever.
Speaker 2:I haven't thought about Mint and Wind for a while, but yes, yeah, so, anyways. So today I saw a source that they're bringing one of her point back, rebranded as a faena residences how interesting the first one and the pictures, or I mean that first one but. But it's, it's the same architecture, it's the same thing.
Speaker 1:They're just, they're just slapping yeah, they're slapping fine, but the architecture was fine. That wasn't the issue. It was beautiful.
Speaker 2:I like it. I like it too, but it is interesting that they're branding it because I think they've seen it. That works. In Miami, we're getting every branded thing under the sun. Like all of them, including Elle magazine.
Speaker 1:I was just going to say that I don't understand that branding at all. How to alienate straight male buyers 101. I don't know. I can't imagine a straight man buying there, I wouldn't Okay.
Speaker 2:I'm being concerned like a baseline, I mean.
Speaker 1:Who's the buyer? I?
Speaker 2:don't know, they're going to buy it for their wives or sugar babies, or I don't. I just I mean, I get the idea. I just I don't know if there's enough women that are in that bracket. And also, as a woman, do you want to buy?
Speaker 1:no, but you're right as a woman. If you have such resources, do you want to buy in a building that has no straight men? Yeah, what would?
Speaker 2:it. I don't know that would be my thought. I don't know it'd be like. It'd be like there'd be like a motor trend building right like they're being like a Motor. Trend building Right. Like women, aren't going to buy in Motor Trend. No, they're not going to want to be in a Motor Trend building. It's just weird. I mean, listen, I can understand. You know Fendi and Aston Martin and whatever. Those are neutral-ish.
Speaker 1:Right, right, but. And you could have a partner who lives there with you. Yeah, it's not one way or the other.
Speaker 2:But Elle, come on. So speaking of edgewater I just saw news.
Speaker 1:So amco sold the hamilton and the land next to it to kushner. Oh wow, yes, there's a lot of interesting things.
Speaker 2:Yeah, amco is doing some interesting moves. They're selling a lot. They sold that assemblage and also they own the yacht club and brickle and the office tower next to it. That's for for sale unpriced, but both of those could have super tolls on them.
Speaker 1:Oh, we had that big office tower sale.
Speaker 2:Yes, bank of America, that who bought it.
Speaker 1:No, no, that was the building that was sold.
Speaker 2:Oh, who bought it?
Speaker 1:I'm blanking right now.
Speaker 2:Naveen, no Naveen, who's?
Speaker 1:owned it. It was the highest price, largest Miami office building sale.
Speaker 2:Nice. I think that that person is probably going to demolish the parking garage because it's like a waterfront parking garage. Yeah, it is, but the property itself was just renovated.
Speaker 1:Well, yeah, I think they'll leave the tower Right, but that parking garage has to go, yeah, I agree, I was just looking at it yesterday because the building itself, I think, had a $30 million renovation recently.
Speaker 2:That's great. I think the SEC is in there too, in that building, maybe In that building Maybe, but anyways the tower's got. I mean, the parking garage is like has 100, 200 feet of waterfront. It's dumb. So I'm 100% sure that's. Their plan is demolish the bill super tall there, which would make sense. What else? Oh, you went and visited a sales center.
Speaker 1:I did, I visited. Yes, it was quite interesting.
Speaker 1:Tell me about it and it's a great vantage point. There I got to that office building and I could see where, where the citadel office tower is coming, and then banks and tend to sit down and make, and you just look at it there and you're like, wow, it all makes sense when you, when you visualize and see it. But mandarin is interesting, it's large units also throughout the building. They have a combination. They have like a. It's a was it 55 or 65 floors? I figured I think 65 well, there's two towers right the resident.
Speaker 1:They're not selling the other tower yet.
Speaker 2:Oh, okay, which which tower is first?
Speaker 1:The residential tower.
Speaker 2:The tall one or the short one?
Speaker 1:The tall one is the residential tower. The shorter one is going to be at the site of the current hotel. They have to demo.
Speaker 2:Okay.
Speaker 1:That one is going to be a hotel and they're also going to have a said they had 50% reserve. They're converting now Wow.
Speaker 2:I know, and does it start at $4 million?
Speaker 1:No, a little bit less.
Speaker 2:Okay, just a few million.
Speaker 1:Yeah, so it has. I'm thinking a lot of it because it has how they explained it was. They call them collections. So they have throughout the I think it's 60, over 60 floors, I believe it was. But they have like a certain number of floors going up the building are like collection one and collection two, and so basically, as it goes up the building vertically, there are fewer units in the floor plate, got it? So collection one is like five units per floor plate and then it just decreases from there, got it.
Speaker 1:And so they have two bedrooms in collection one and I think that the smallest two bedrooms if I recall I don't remember exactly, but they weren't that small for two, but they're big for two bedrooms they were like 23 or 26 square feet. So no, you're right, it is at 4 million starting, because there's nothing under 2,000 square foot really. So you're absolutely right, correct. And then they have, and then it just goes up and there are fewer units. So as it goes up the building, you have these 4,600 square foot floor plan that had this kind of recessed nook off the kitchen where it's like balcony and it goes. It's like it's like a protected area but it's outdoors, so hopefully it protects from some of the wind. It was quite nice. And then the higher floors. They had a two bedroom. They call this super two.
Speaker 2:Super two.
Speaker 1:Yeah, it's huge. It's 3000 square feet or something ridiculous for a two bedroom. It has a giant retaining area, a giant suite like a master suite, the library, all these things. It was pretty cool.
Speaker 2:How's the sales center?
Speaker 1:Very nice. They spent $13 million in the sales center. They're going to demolish it next November when they break ground.
Speaker 2:Next November. Yeah, okay.
Speaker 1:So they're not going to break ground until next year.
Speaker 2:Okay.
Speaker 1:So the sales center is still there.
Speaker 2:It, it's beautiful.
Speaker 1:It's very nice. I really like the design, lots of textures and so forth. The units are not real size, model size. They don't have the space, but it is the real fixtures and real everything else and it's very nice. So it is. I wanted to see it because it is like a single. It could be a single family replacement, like the St Regis.
Speaker 2:Yeah, I was just about to say that, like all these things are being timed sort of around citadels.
Speaker 1:Yeah, so they're going to deliver around 2029. And yeah, so again, the people in the residence tower they're going to have. The whole property itself has eight pools between the hotel tower and that one. If you're in the residence tower you can use the whole set of amenities. If you're in the hotel tower you cannot. They'll have a hotel program for those. But the units in the residential tower are not going to be short-term friendly. There's no hotel program, so they're just residences Nice.
Speaker 2:Yeah, I think you know a lot of people are timing. You know you're going to have Manor Oriental, you're going to have St Regis, you're going to have Dolce Gabbana. They're really counting on. I think it's important to note that in the past, in the past cycle, the people that would have bought these would have been foreign investors.
Speaker 1:Right, so I asked the question. It was 80% domestic buyers so far.
Speaker 2:There you go. That's what I was saying is that you're getting people now who are going to be working in Brickell or nearby. That's what they're buying. That's why they're launching these Dolce Gabbana and St Regis because those people want to be steps from the office.
Speaker 1:Correct to be steps from the office Correct. And 80% domestic buyers for Miami condo pre-sales would have been unheard of 80% domestic buyers for a condo project.
Speaker 2:Speaking of, I sent you pictures this weekend of the sales center for Cove Miami is open. Oh yes, it's on 26 or something in Edgewater, 26, 27. And that's an interesting project because that is specifically stated for families because the units are big. They're large units and, yeah, the sales center is open. It's a cool spot. It's right next to Icon Bay and it will complete the Baywalk there. On that same street, villa Miami has started site work. Oh wow, yeah, finally the whole end of the street there is closed off. That's a cool project too, Half-floor.
Speaker 1:Wow yeah, finally the whole end of the street there is closed off.
Speaker 2:That's a cool project too, half-floor units. Yeah, really nice, could be a really beautiful it's like the same floor plan as 1000 Museum.
Speaker 1:It's the same developer.
Speaker 2:Yeah, they had to tweak the design a little bit. Yeah Right, People were like but yeah, that's going to be a nice project.
Speaker 1:Helipad also, it pad also it's pretty.
Speaker 2:I like the fact that they're going like that bronzy look yeah I like it a lot.
Speaker 1:I think it's not just white, it's. I agree it's nice. It's a great spot.
Speaker 2:I like where it is yeah, also I keep forgetting about it, but vita over there in edgewater okay, oh, that's right it's a. I think it's short-term friendly seems, but it's nice it's. It's not skyscraper, it's 12 or 13 stories, but it's good to have some, some variation and it's short-term friendly. It looks nice, the pool's on the roof. Oh, speaking of short buildings, they announced the one in South Brickell, on the west side of Brickell Ave.
Speaker 1:Oh yes.
Speaker 2:Mexican or Brazilian developers. Anyways, it looks nice, it's shorter six stories but like only 18 units or something crazy. They're massive, massive units.
Speaker 1:More single family replacement.
Speaker 2:Yeah, you know, I think it's a story Like Miami is sort of, at least for me, you can tell me this. But the way I see it, miami is doing three things right now. It's doing ultra super luxury, I mean large. It's doing short-term condo rental friendlies, the Gale 600 Mile World.
Speaker 1:Center, the Crosby. That's where you can deliver a product at lower prices, because there's small square footage for that model right, or they're doing sort of regular multifamily.
Speaker 2:Those seem to be the three things that we're delivering in progress right now, Yep agree. So I think it's good, because you have to have the Mellos and the PMGs.
Speaker 1:You need all of it, yeah.
Speaker 2:Yeah, like I said, you need all of it. But yeah, there's, like I said, I was just scooting around and there's just I feel like that things have slightly changed or accelerated after the rate cuts. I was thinking about this last night. I was falling asleep. If you watch, like I do, you're a little nerdy about it. You can like sense the energy of a project and where it's going. You sort of understand it Even just by looking at the site. I'm talking about getting news just at the site and you can see when it's going and when it's not.
Speaker 1:Yep Agree.
Speaker 2:And I was in Wynwood and it looks like the link Wynwood died. It's like an office product in Wynwood and it's like really far west. It's almost 95 and I like just had this feeling ever since they announced the project like this is not, it's just not gonna in this current iteration it just wouldn't work. It's too far away from everything. They've had trouble leasing at 545 win because it's so far west.
Speaker 2:So anyways, I'm just saying you can feel it, yeah yeah, active construction sites have a certain feeling to them yeah, and so I'm just saying going around winwood and edgewater and downtown things are they're doing stuff, at least from what I can see. Yeah, and the plaza winwood's about to open or soon. Ish, that is a massive, massive project and the standard is topped off oh, it has yes, that's going to be a fun project it's interesting spot there, yeah the there's a, there's a fence up for one midtown.
Speaker 2:Okay. So that's like the last lot before 29th Street on the east side that's going to make a 50, 60 story building. Yeah, there's just. There's a lot happening and I know I sound like a broke record when I say that, but but there really is, there is. And it's, it's still, I think.
Speaker 2:I think we're moving into a new type of cycle and it's, you know, miami's defined boom and bust cycle is a thing of the past, I believe I agree too personally I agree a little bit to the point of bubbles not being built on cash yeah, it goes back to, you know, the that the domestic buyer, the domestic buyer, the fact that we're no longer so heavy on credit, I think is starting to starting to insulate Miami from those.
Speaker 1:When the Latin American boom bust cycles of the of the buyer surges from there, which are tied to those economies also. So what I've been making is that we have this base now of domestic buyers that we did not have before. We'll always have a Latin American demand for all the reasons that we always did before that did not go away.
Speaker 1:But we're sort of shielded from the volatility of that because we have this base of domestic buyers now too, and the Latin American buyer, which comes in its own waves, is now on top of or in addition to the domestic buyers. It's a big difference.
Speaker 2:Yeah, I like it. I like the fact of getting more domestic buyers, because the people who buy those tend to be in the city. I mean, they might buy it for an investment, but they probably live there too, correct? Yeah, I mean. A couple months ago we went to Fort Lauderdale to visit Andara residences. A percent of the people there were domestic. It's not just Miami, correct, it's all South Florida. It's South Florida.
Speaker 1:Correct, correct. So I predominantly publish reports on Miami-Dade, but sometimes I'll do tri-county data. I've done tri-county data reports on cash usage. I'll do tri-county reports on pricing. Whatever it is right, it's the same patterns. So good that you brought that up. Palm we're seeing it like that project. Now Broward has sales past 1,000 square foot for condos, whereas before it did not. So the patterns are all the same, just the starting points are different.
Speaker 2:Interesting.
Speaker 1:And then Palm Beach, by the way, has more all cash than we do.
Speaker 2:Well, because that's where you have the real money. I mean the money you don't hear about In Miami.
Speaker 1:people want to show you In Palm Beach they're like I want to know you.
Speaker 2:Yeah, your next door neighbor is the heir to the tobacco something.
Speaker 1:It's that. It's always that story. They're like how sold in Palm Beach Heir of whatever sells to whatever I'm like, oh, those people are all over there.
Speaker 2:Yeah, I don't know. Listen, I want to be wealthy someday and I know I will be, because I just know. But I don't know if I want to be that wealthy, because then you just get problems that come with being that wealthy and I'd rather not be, you know, have to have a like I don't want to have to have a bodyguard with me when I walk out to the grocery store, do?
Speaker 1:you know what I mean.
Speaker 2:That's also a question of visibility too, yeah, but I mean, when you get to that level of richness, people know you're rich. They can just look up the list of top rich people.
Speaker 1:That's like being a stalker.
Speaker 2:Yeah, that's like public. But I'm saying like I want to be wealthy, but not like where I'm getting kidnapped off the street.
Speaker 1:We'll have all my MMA friends. Yes, oh, boy, we'll have a training center in the compound for struggling MMA athletes.
Speaker 2:Yeah, like my mom was one moving with us. That's the best. But yeah, so it's good. There's a lot happening and I think the next couple of months are going to be a lot.
Speaker 1:It's going to keep going. The beat keeps going. What's the expression? I'm misusing it. The beat goes on. The beat goes on. The beat keeps going. What's the expression? I'm misusing it? The beat goes on. The beat goes on. The beat goes on. That's what I have to look at. When I see the data, the beat goes on 100%. And and hearkening back to this little tweet I saw about Illinois proposing new wealth taxation, as I keep saying, feeder jurisdictions will keep doubling down on their hostilities towards capital and this will contribute to the beat going on.
Speaker 2:Well, I mean, it's like they have to Like to the beat going on.
Speaker 1:Well, I mean, it's like they have to. They'll correct. They would have to clean house and change the operators completely.
Speaker 2:No, I'm saying, once you start on that path, you'd have to go down to the end or give up on it, right, or somehow everyone gets replaced, which isn't going to happen.
Speaker 1:So, exactly right, exactly.
Speaker 2:Interesting Any other news that we wanted to talk about? No, okay, well, there was a lot to talk about, and I hope you enjoyed the exclusive tea that we had there. I think that actually might get that project off the ground Right. Finally, I really hope it does. I hope so too, it's a great spot, great architecture it's a great spot and that's one of the last pieces of Baywalk. Correct that thing, Yep.
