Ryan & Ana On MIA
Ryan and Ana cover all things Miami development and real estate, the good, the bad the drama.
Ryan & Ana On MIA
Migration Waves: Post-Election Shifts, Miami's Luxury Innovation, and The Future of U.S. Real Estate
What if you could predict the next big real estate shift? Join us as we unravel the post-election ripple effects reshaping the U.S. real estate market. We've observed a fascinating migration of people escaping high-tax states like California and New York for the sunny, low-tax havens of Florida and Texas. This movement is more than just a trend; it's a demographic revolution with political implications, including shifts in leadership and policy, from the streets of San Francisco to the halls of Florida's government.
Discover the future of luxury living without the price tag, as we spotlight Mellow's latest real estate venture in Miami’s Golden Triangle. Their innovative approach to cutting costs—like merging amenities and committing to vertical integration—offers affordability without sacrificing opulence. This isn't just about real estate; it’s about creating communities that cater to diverse lifestyles while attracting high-profile executives who seek both luxury and practicality in their living spaces.
Miami's real estate market is buzzing with potential, and we’re thrilled to explore the vibrant developments transforming downtown and Brickell. With over 36 projects in the works and a surge in cash transactions, we assess why this market stands resilient against past crashes and what the future holds. From branded residences to ambitious infrastructure projects and the intriguing possibility of a Trump presidency, there's an air of optimism surrounding the ongoing evolution of Miami's real estate landscape. Tune in for a detailed exploration that promises to enlighten and inspire.
Hello everyone, welcome to episode 29 of Ryan and Anna on MIA. It is post-election. We are still here, miami is still here. It was going to be fine either way, as we thought the whole time.
Speaker 2:Yeah, we didn't implode. No, Nothing crazy happened. It all just sort of happened the way it was supposed to, or did.
Speaker 1:Correct we were saying before. I felt there was something of a subconscious pause on the psyches of the world and the markets, no matter what one thought the outcome would be whether they were panicked or not. Whatever it was, there was this sort of weight. That's been lifted, and I feel like this pause has been over and now there's very much a feeling of on to the next.
Speaker 2:Yeah, I think, no matter what it was, whether it was the job market or real estate or just anyone making any decisions was completely paused there was an unknown. However, whichever way you looked at it, Like you just said, we knew that that didn't really affect us that much.
Speaker 1:Yep, we were never going to have a very distinct after reality from the before. Yes, because, again, the people are our trend stay, and I was on this topic. I was featured in a Daily Mail article about oh, time has fallen about two weeks ago and it was on migration patterns. The US Census Bureau releases annual data and they had just released it a few weeks ago and it was on 2023 migration, and they have this. It's public access, everyone. It's like a whole thing. You can download this data. So I, of course, downloaded it, parsed it, I made a whole little chart about it and I made a chart, a table, showing net migration inflow, outflow for all the states plus the District of Columbia, so 51 entries in the table, and then you can rank them by which states received the most and lost the most. So the patterns continued. Florida and Texas were the big winners. Obviously, texas edged us out a little bit we're neck and neck, but they are four times bigger than we are and then the biggest losers were California and New York once again, shocking.
Speaker 1:So when I look at this data, part of what I've been saying in this thesis of the country reshaping is that people are leaving high tax what were high lockdown states, which were blue states. That's just the pattern that I perceived. So I added a column to the table which showed the top marginal income tax rate for each state. And then, wow, is that a pattern? So one and two have no tax zero Florida and Texas. The last two were Florida, the worst ones, the worst losers. Each New York and California have over 10% top tax rate.
Speaker 1:And then I averaged it, you know, five by five, by five, by five down the list, and the pattern holds very, very clear. This is clearly a migration of citizens out of high-tax states to lower-tax states. And then I did another thing I added a column showing the party affiliation of the in-place governor, and eight of the top ten winning states in terms of net population had Republican governors. Nine of the ten losing states had Democratic governors. So it was an extremely strong pattern. And basically for the year, blue states with a governor who was a Democrat had an outflow of over 500,000 people and red states had an inflow of over 500,000 people. It was a shocking correlation.
Speaker 2:That is quite a correlation, yep, and it is interesting, I think, from what I've seen after the election and even before. Okay, I'm going to rewind a little bit. San Francisco San Francisco replaced their mayor.
Speaker 2:Right right, and I have said since I started this podcast we started this podcast like almost two years ago now that San Francisco, as an example, was going to have to burn figuratively to the ground. Yep, and they finally did. Yep Correct, they still have some people in there, whatever Right, but getting rid of that mayor and they replaced a ton of the board of supervisors too is a huge step, and so that never would have happened in like 2020.
Speaker 1:Correct. And then, similarly, on the same ballot as the presidential ballot, california overwhelmingly voted for a proposition. Oh, I forgot the number, oh the rent control.
Speaker 2:No, no, no, no, no, no no no, no, no, no, no, no.
Speaker 1:We want people to be criminals again for the crimes they commit.
Speaker 2:Is it like the $900 thing?
Speaker 1:Yeah, I think it was related to that. I forgot Proposition number, whatever Correct. So it was to roll back decriminalization, okay, and the state of California overwhelmingly went that way. So perhaps things have swung too far even there.
Speaker 2:Speaking of swinging too far, California also voted against rent control, like statewide rent control, yep.
Speaker 1:Same pattern, all part of the same thing.
Speaker 2:Yeah, and there's like one guy who's been trying to push rent control through in California for like I don't know 20 years and they actually had a separate ballot just for this guy that he could no longer use this money whatever money he makes to do rent control ballots, because he's done it like four times.
Speaker 1:Wow, he keeps spamming them yeah he keeps spamming them yeah he keeps spamming them. They literally blocked him. Wow, so I think it's very very interesting Yep and on a Florida front we have how many cabinet members from the state of Florida and appointees? It's like the whole administration is Florida.
Speaker 2:Yeah, Also. You know, we have a little revolving door there too. Oh, we do More.
Speaker 1:I have a little bit of a revolting door there too.
Speaker 2:Oh, we do More Florida people. They got rid of one and picked the other one. Yes, the girl's hotter though.
Speaker 1:She is hotter, better optics.
Speaker 2:Yes.
Speaker 1:Yeah.
Speaker 2:She looks sort of like that Fox News sort of anchor the trim kind of blonde. Yes, so I think it's funny, it's, you know, they—.
Speaker 1:The mayor of Miami is in shape.
Speaker 2:Yes.
Speaker 1:Shout out to Mayor Suarez. He's a good spokesperson for our city.
Speaker 2:I mean, if you're going to be a mayor in Miami, you've got to be hot.
Speaker 1:You've got to work out.
Speaker 2:Yeah, but I think it's interesting. I think I said this in the last podcast or maybe the one before it. Billy Corbin always says he says that the Miami of today is the America of tomorrow. I don't know if he said it, but he says it all the time and it is true. It's funny because he says it in a negative sort of way. I say it, I took it as a positive in a positive way, because there are a lot of positives about this city that should be exported to other cities in this country.
Speaker 1:Yep, agree yeah.
Speaker 2:So, but yeah, I mean like listen, we are. Things are continuing to boom here.
Speaker 1:Yes, they are.
Speaker 2:I mean we, you can't keep track yeah. I didn't bring with me today, but this is some of my notes for the thing, some of them, some of them we print out like a lot of pages. Sorry, trees, but there was like a stack that was bigger than this of residential condo projects that are either in construction, very closest to breaking ground or completing soon, and it was like twice it was tri-counted, it was twice the stack of this, and that's just condos.
Speaker 1:Not multifamily. We have 80 projects under construction in the pipeline.
Speaker 2:Yeah, yep In.
Speaker 1:Miami-Dade alone Correct.
Speaker 2:And what are some of the projects that we're excited about?
Speaker 1:Oh my God, there's so many. My brain feels inundated, I know, but we had a groundbreaking recently the St Regis Brokeout.
Speaker 2:Yes, that's an exciting story, one of our favorite projects.
Speaker 1:Correct. This is tying into our single-family home replacement thesis. So the single-family home market is very, very tight. It will remain very tight because we can't add more inventory vertically and in fact I made a post on this recently. October numbers for single-family Our median pricing Miami-Dade is up 9% year over year. Inventory remains 29% below where it was pre-COVID.
Speaker 2:Wow.
Speaker 1:Yep, and then the tightest areas. For example, talking about relevant to that project, the urban core is Coconut Grove, for example, which is the closest low-density neighborhood to the urban core.
Speaker 2:Yeah.
Speaker 1:And that market is on steroids. There's nothing.
Speaker 2:Speaking of single-family home replacement, we visited a sales center last week.
Speaker 1:We did of Aria Reserve.
Speaker 2:Yes.
Speaker 1:That was a great project, highly impressed.
Speaker 2:Two towers yep, they were the tallest waterfront twin towers the tallest twin waterfront towers in the United States.
Speaker 1:Over 50 floors each. I believe yeah.
Speaker 2:I think there's taller ones that are on the ocean. I don't know. I think they're banking on the fact that it's on a bay and twin towers, and twin towers.
Speaker 1:But they're tall.
Speaker 2:That's not why I like it anyway, and twin towers, but they're tall. That's not why I like it anyway. Yeah, it's going to be. Anyways, I was just really impressed with that project, like the amenities, and they've done some really thoughtful things too. Like one of the things is they built the first south tower and now they built a north tower and they learned some things.
Speaker 1:They did. They learned to expand one of the units and decrease the floor plate to allow for a larger unit. I believe the first tower had seven on a typical floor plate had seven units, yeah, and then past, I think, the 27th or 28th floor, past the mid-level floor in the second tower, they expanded one of the corner units to give it more frontage, more water frontage and more square footage to accommodate larger and this is going back to our single-family home replacement theory.
Speaker 2:Yeah, yeah, and I think that is interesting because most we're basically kind of building three products. As far as condo goes, right now we're building the ultra-luxury single-family home replacement St Regis, Una, Villa, Villa those places we are building condos that are short-term rental-friendly and then we're building like micro-units.
Speaker 1:Well, those are the condo hotels. Usually they're all micro I'm sorry, all the micro-units are condo hotel units pretty much.
Speaker 2:Yes.
Speaker 1:In the condo space, yeah.
Speaker 2:Yeah, and then we're building some slightly large ones that are also short-term rentals.
Speaker 1:Right, that's basically what we're building that middle ground, there's a paucity of the middle ground.
Speaker 2:There's none, almost none, I would say Aria is.
Speaker 1:Yeah, aria is interesting, aria is not as expensive as the St Regis or the Mandarin.
Speaker 2:Yeah, and we were shocked by the HOA 75 cents a foot, that's right. That's crazy.
Speaker 1:That's exceptionally low for our market. For those that don't know, we asked them how they achieved that.
Speaker 2:Yeah.
Speaker 1:Yes, do you recall what they said? It was a good answer.
Speaker 2:He said, because Mellow is one vertically integrated Two, it's because they didn't do a brand.
Speaker 1:And by vertically integrated you mean they do their own construction. Architecture and their own financing. I believe right. Yes, so they've kept those costs down. And then economics of scale for amenities and the lot.
Speaker 2:Yeah, it's really interesting because they built.
Speaker 1:And no branding, as you were saying.
Speaker 2:Yeah, and they built the two towers right on the bay and then the parking and amenities is like a block west of it.
Speaker 1:Right.
Speaker 2:So they put it all together so they didn't have to build two different amenities for both towers.
Speaker 1:But 75 cents a foot is.
Speaker 2:It's crazy. You can't find that anymore in existing $2, right.
Speaker 1:Yeah, it's not unusual at all. Wow Over $1.50 is quite typical Over a dollar. I mean what's below a dollar? Now I don't even know. Yeah.
Speaker 2:That's great. Anyways, it's just a really good project overall.
Speaker 1:The price points are not cheap, but again it's below the Uber high end, correct, and they're around $1,200 square foot or 4,000 square foot, like we're seeing some of the Uber luxury. So it's the best attempt, I think, at that middle ground. It's not no one's saying it's cheap, but you have units there at one to three, one to four that are larger floor plan, which is not cheap, but it's less than five to 10.
Speaker 2:Yeah, and it's also interesting because you're going to get an interesting mix of people, because the penthouses and whatever the sky holds, whatever, and whatever the sky holds, whatever they're calling them, are going to be very expensive.
Speaker 1:Right.
Speaker 2:And those even have staff quarters.
Speaker 1:Correct, that's right, so you could bring your, and their top ones are bi-level. They have all those things.
Speaker 2:Yeah, so you could bring your nannies and cooks and whatever. But then they're also going to have sort of standard one-bedroom. They're just basically anyone with a semi-high income can have, correct.
Speaker 1:Correct.
Speaker 2:So it's going to be an interesting mix of people and one of the interesting. I don't know if it's tea or not, but so, if you know this, it's on 24th and they have the two towers in the bay and then it sort of goes all the way back to the amenity deck. There's a blank space directly west, so keep an eye on that space.
Speaker 1:That's also owned by Mellow, because you asked them. That's right yeah.
Speaker 2:I was joking that they made a better Parisio district and it is because I think and also the Aria Reserve has like four or five retail spaces in the amenity deck, Right. Everything that I saw about it, was it Padel. Court. Yeah, Padel and Tennis, I believe.
Speaker 1:All the units are pass-through. Yes, oh yeah, they're all flow-through and they have pools on both sides, so you can choose your light exposure yep, and the baywalk there is really thoughtful.
Speaker 2:It has like a really wide baywalk. They're doing a restaurant that's open to the public.
Speaker 1:That's right.
Speaker 2:Which is nice.
Speaker 1:The entrance is separate. That was the point. Yeah, that's right.
Speaker 2:And I think you said the minimum rental. There is one month, 30 days.
Speaker 1:Yeah, that's right. One month, yep.
Speaker 2:So I think, anyways, I just think it's a good project.
Speaker 1:It's a very well thought out project.
Speaker 2:Yeah, yeah.
Speaker 1:And I think was on the money. It's on the market, it's a great product.
Speaker 2:Yeah, because I think they learned a lot from the Aria over here. Mm-hmm, that makes sense, and they applied it to that. You should like this. This is my little drawing I made of your.
Speaker 1:Ah yes, Ryan Drew.
Speaker 2:We have the.
Speaker 1:Bermuda Triangle, which is rather ominous. This is where Citadel is coming Yep. And then we have the St Regis Yep, and St Tenderbank will be in there too, somewhere.
Speaker 2:And 830 Brickell.
Speaker 1:And 830 Brickell.
Speaker 2:Yeah.
Speaker 1:There's a whole lot coming in this golden triangle here. Yeah, this is Ryan trademarked. This Class A off is coming. Yep, two amazing projects coming.
Speaker 2:Yeah.
Speaker 1:And yeah.
Speaker 2:And then also 1428 Brickle's in there.
Speaker 1:Oh, it is. Yes, that's correct. That's inland right there, mm-hmm. Yes.
Speaker 2:That's pretty amazing, yeah, brickle.
Speaker 1:Golden Triangle. You saw it here first. Everyone Trademark Ryan.
Speaker 2:So I think the interesting did the whole analysis of the Citadel St Regis. I think this really plays into that.
Speaker 1:A thousand percent.
Speaker 2:Because you have the people executives at Santander, at Citadel, at 830 Brickell, whoever's there. They're going to want properties that are basically walkable or extremely quick.
Speaker 1:Some of them will.
Speaker 2:To get to the office Yep.
Speaker 1:Yep and there's really not much product. That was one of the points we're discussing. That will shock most people. The only project really delivered in the last five years in Brickell is Flatiron, and Brickell Flatiron is not a family building per se.
Speaker 2:Yeah.
Speaker 1:It's a lot of units almost 600 units, I think. It's not a short-term building, but it's a lot of smaller units. Yeah, so it doesn't really have an expanse of larger floor plans. It has some, but that's not the majority of the building and it was never meant to be like a family. It's like a young professional's building, but that's the only one that's new in the last five years.
Speaker 2:I was shook by that.
Speaker 1:Yeah, I know it's a shocking stat. This is why, as I keep saying, older buildings like the Santa Maria or even Echo, which was built in 2018, right below my threshold there it are getting very high prices per square foot because they are the single family replacement and there's nothing else if you want to be in the urban core, or they go to Coconut Grove, where you can't get much for $5 million anymore.
Speaker 1:Truly it is what it is. You're going to get an older house that needs work. You're not going to love it. Love it at $5 million, and also not even that alone.
Speaker 1:I grew up in New York City and I have never lived in a house, and so for me it's actually very normal to live in an apartment or a condo, and for many people who grew up in New York City that's the case. I actually get creeped out when I'm in a house at night because I feel like somebody could come knock on the window, because I've never lived in a house. So there are people like that too, people who are used to living in dense urban environments and environments, and I'm like, for example, Echo Brickle is reselling. They had a resell at 1,800 a square foot, which I find not to offend Echo Brickle, but I find it a little bit surprising. Similarly, also, which one was it there on the water at Santa Maria? No, which one was it? The old building from the 90s? We sold it like 900 a foot. Wow, because it has larger floor plans and it's within the urban core.
Speaker 1:And then we have the Apogee in South Beach, built in 2008, which is reselling at $3,500 a square foot, and that building, when it was built, was considered too fancy for its area. The area grew up around it and it's four units per floor plate. The corner ones are over $4,500. The middle ones are like $3,500, $3,600 square feet. So it's a real single-family replacement. That's what it's tapping into and these new ones, not to insult the Apogee it's a nice building but the new ones the Mandarin or the St Regis, they'll make the Apogee look not to sound rude, but middle class in comparison it's just a different generation of building.
Speaker 1:And it's getting $3,500 now in resale.
Speaker 2:Yeah, and to go back to St Regis you were going into about how it sort of stands alone, because it's really like, let's say, una, una has been under construction for a million years and it really hasn't been optimized.
Speaker 1:It still hasn't delivered actually.
Speaker 2:It hasn't been optimized for the current cycle Right.
Speaker 1:It was designed at the Right, that's why it was delayed and so forth, correct.
Speaker 2:Yeah.
Speaker 1:It's still a nice project, but yes.
Speaker 2:And you know we've said before projects. But yes, and you know we've said before, but the St Regis was originally designed to be two towers, mm-hmm, and they shrunk it and then made the tower larger and increased the floor plates and then people modified there, I think it's down from like 160 to like 120.
Speaker 1:Like, a bunch of units were removed from the list because people combined to make them even larger.
Speaker 2:Nice.
Speaker 1:It's just straight up single family replacement.
Speaker 2:Yeah, and they also broke ground yesterday.
Speaker 1:It's pretty exciting.
Speaker 2:They demolished and broke ground on that very rapidly.
Speaker 1:Yep and then the Mandarin will break ground next year.
Speaker 2:It's crazy. Somewhere in this list of papers I'll find eventually is the delivery schedule for Brickle. And there's almost nothing for two years.
Speaker 1:It's really not that much, guys. That's the thing that people don't realize. It's because construction news is exciting and it gets announced. You see all these unit counts, all those things, but really it isn't that much when you look at how it's spaced out and the distinctions in unit type, because they don't overlap. The market for a larger, expensive unit does not overlap with a condo hotel product. You have to look at them as separate things and it really it's not that much, given what's happening in the area.
Speaker 2:Yeah, and here it is. So there are 5,254 units coming to market by 2009 in Brickell. By when? 2029. Right, and there's almost nothing in 2025. Right, it's Oona and Smart Brickell 3. Right, you get more in 2026 and going forward, but yeah, I mean you're not going to get anything for a year and a half at least.
Speaker 1:And then a few years, a lot of deliveries, and then it's chill.
Speaker 2:So that's what I've been saying for a lot of these podcasts is Miami really had a sort of never-ending super cycle, because normally you would have this sort of look and then there'd be no projects at all because we'd be in a crash. But there was no crash no matter what the press wants to say. No, there has not been. Anna loves making those videos.
Speaker 1:Give me another truth video. I still have to make one about UBS's bubble index which deeply offended me, but it's just very oh.
Speaker 2:and here is the price per square foot on the new ones.
Speaker 1:Right, yep, so it's ranging right $1,000. Smart Brickell 2, it says up to 2,500 men. Yeah, correct, you can't really deliver below 1,000 a foot, we know this. Yeah, those are going to be small units, kind of hotel units.
Speaker 2:Yep. So I just find it interesting, and it's sort of the same. Look for downtown Miami as well. Correct? There's like three or four products delivering in the next year, and then 2026, 2027, there's a lot.
Speaker 1:Honestly, guys, these 1428 Brickell, st Regis, mandarin, at 2,000 a foot, I think that's a deal when the Apogee is reselling at 3,500. I think the Apogee reselling at 3,500 shows what people are willing to pay for larger floor plans. The Apogee doesn't have a marina. It doesn't have a Michelin restaurant. It doesn't have any. It was built in 2008,. It was fancy for its time, but these are very, very different realities, right now.
Speaker 1:So I think all these buildings have that upside because we know people are willing to pay it and Brickell will continue developing around them.
Speaker 2:And Apogee is technically a dry lot.
Speaker 1:How so.
Speaker 2:Well, it's not on the water directly oh. Oh, it is yeah, okay.
Speaker 1:Yeah, it's a government cut, but no more yeah.
Speaker 2:No, marina.
Speaker 1:Not its own. It has the Miami Beach, marina, yeah, yeah.
Speaker 2:Yeah, and this is an interesting map. This is a development map of everything happening in downtown in Brickell. Just look at the map. Look at that. It's wild. Like there's how many are on here? There's 36 on here, and that's not even really all of them, because this is a little out of date. There's been announcements since then 36 projects by 2028. It's crazy. So I am oh and then, on that same note, this is from the Brickle Mag, Brickle Rising.
Speaker 2:I love that picture, yeah, this is Miami and downtown Brickle by 2030, I believe they did a really cool job with the rendering on it. They did it's just, and there's new things getting announced all the time. Who is buying the Amco assemblage right here? I don't know, but it's in negotiations for $500 million.
Speaker 1:That's right. That's right. That's right. Correct, I just blanked on it. Yes, yeah.
Speaker 2:So you know, I think it's. I don't know, I'll have to research that, but that's a huge lot and they could develop three, four towers there and those are wet lots.
Speaker 1:Yep, it's exciting. It is exciting and our airport is at all-time traffic highs. It keeps breaking records.
Speaker 2:Oh, and they want to build a new one.
Speaker 1:There's talks of building a new one, exactly.
Speaker 2:I sent that to my friend Max because he thinks we should do like an actual high-speed rail with Brightline, like an actual one, and have like the terminus be like the South Dade Airport, I don't know, and then have like the terminus be like the South Dade Airport. Hmm, I don't know.
Speaker 2:And then have like a high-speed rail to Naples or something I don't know. But interesting, interesting things. Oh, look at this. This is the pre-construction condo by units for the whole thing, 18,000. Yep 18,000 under construction and that's just condo. Yep 18,000 under construction and that's just condo. Yep, not multifamily.
Speaker 1:Yep.
Speaker 2:Spread out, though, aren't they? Yeah, it's all over the place. I'm just going through these because there's some really interesting data in here. I like this one. This is the condo market cycles. That's right. Like I was just saying about super cycles, right. And they said by the end of it we will have, by the end of cycle three, we'll have 55,000 units delivered. That's wild, mm-hmm. You did an interesting article or video last week about bubbles, because you always love talking about them.
Speaker 1:Yes, it's because people keep making things up about how to define a bubble like UBS. I think it's broken telephone law for UBS, because they had the global bubble index and they used Miami as their headline, probably to get views.
Speaker 2:Okay.
Speaker 1:And they defined our placement on the list solely upon speed of price appreciation. They said the price has risen so much, what can really support it? It must be a bubble. Okay, so that's not the only factor to look at when you look at a bubble, especially real estate. So in the last market when things crashed in the last real estate crash, it's because there's a whole lot of over-leveraging in the market and when the underlying assets couldn't no longer support the debt, it all, as I was saying, crashed like a flammable house of cards. It went down.
Speaker 1:Okay, that's not the setup that we have now at all. We have a very, very heavy cash, all-cash market. Now we're talking about all this condo development. Even at a million dollars in the resale market, condos were 72% cash in Q3 of this year and the higher up we go per square foot, very high and resale past 2,000 per square foot 82%, all cash. So this market has been buoyed up by cash. The higher up we go, the more it is cash and it's relatively it's strongly cash all the way down.
Speaker 1:So this is not a what's it called an over-levered setup. That's been fueled by irresponsible usage of debt and also our inventory levels have not spiked. Overall inventory, as with single family, remains about 30% below pre-COVID. We do have at higher price points. We have more inventory than pre-COVID, but we're selling many, multiple times more. So actually supply relative to demand hasn't kept up. So I don't see the spike in supply. I don't see the usage of debt. Where is the bubble? I don't understand. You can't justify the bubble based on price. But I think people are just not willing to see what's really happening. Maybe it's contrary to their identity, politics, their perceptions of how things should be, or they just want a headline, I don't really know. But UBS should know better. Shame.
Speaker 2:I love Anna's setting the record straight.
Speaker 1:They're my favorite. I can't help myself.
Speaker 2:You can see the intensity when she's talking to these people in the press that are just like in some sort of oh, I was in a South Florida Business Journal article about bubbles also.
Speaker 1:Actually Eric Boydansky wrote it and he did a good job in quoting different perspectives. He gave me a few paragraphs on this topic where he quoted these cash percentages and so forth. The headline hurt me. The headline hurt me. The headline was Miami tops list of global bubbles. But the article itself was very well balanced. Maybe that's just the title they had to use, I don't know.
Speaker 2:Okay, yeah, nice. Well, moving on from bubbles, there have been some more official announcements. Faina is officially launched and pre-selling. That's right, you heard it here first. That's right, you heard it here first.
Speaker 1:That's true. Sorry, that's partnered with Fortune, right.
Speaker 2:Yes, yeah, hopefully they can get one of our point off the ground this time.
Speaker 2:Right, but now it's called Faena, it's called Faena, but the whole thing is they want to do a whole district around it. Yep, so there's a couple more lots they can fill in, so we'll see what they can do with some fine money or name. And then, across the way, they started selling the standard Brickell residences, which is another part of Lofty, second Tower and Lofty. I find that interesting because they are very clear that even though it's a standard branded, it's a regular condo and no short-term rentals 30-day minimum. Yeah.
Speaker 1:Yeah, yeah, harvey told me that.
Speaker 2:Yeah, and then Lofty is short-term.
Speaker 1:I believe yes.
Speaker 2:So it'll be interesting to see what they do with a third tower, what the makeup of that will be, If it'll be multifamily or a regular condo or it's a— Evolving, yeah, because—well I I think that's the story sort of with all these things is that Miami has learned a lot from its past in real estate and they evolve quickly now. Developers do.
Speaker 1:That's a good point Adapt and evolve.
Speaker 2:Yeah, if they see the market heading one way or a trend heading one way, they adapt their market and they're not afraid to. They couldn't sell River Point for whatever reason. It didn't work. They realize that there is a crazy boom in branded properties. People love it, boom Branded property, and now it has positive forward motion.
Speaker 1:Good point.
Speaker 2:Yeah, and Lofty was not having the best of luck with sales. Boom Branded property. This is true, and there's still a third tower to come. Also, they're really moving fast on two projects that I sort of keep an eye on Casa Bella across the street here and Viceroy in Brickell and Baccarat too. But Viceroy is there, they're flying on it. It should be a fairly quick completion. So I am excited about that. And you know, there's just there's so much like things that we haven't even covered before. There's season one, millock's Place yeah, just so many things happening. That's the one across the street from Mercedes-Benz.
Speaker 2:Places Short-term rentals yeah short-term rentals, and that's West Brickle. West Brickle is popping off it's now a place. Yeah, there's so much happening there and because there's so many older buildings and empty lots, they're really sort of getting to. They have more flexibility than they did in like actual Brickell, so they can make projects that are a little more intentional.
Speaker 1:Correct, actual Brickell had a lot built in the previous cycle. Yeah.
Speaker 2:Speaking of previous cycles, some of the hot tea not really hot tea, but it's causing some consternation. So Ken Griffin has the waterfront lot there on Brickell Bay Drive.
Speaker 1:This is in the Wall Street Journal that Ken Griffin cooped.
Speaker 2:And he also bought the office building on Brickell Ave and in between those is Solaris. Right. Solaris was built by Harvey Hernandez I don't know what's his last name.
Speaker 1:Hernandez Hernandez, yes, it was built by him in 2006.
Speaker 2:And apparently there has been anonymous Delaware LLCs buying up half the building and they've gotten to like 60 or 70 percent and the Wall Street Journal was like, hmm.
Speaker 1:Oh, they blew his cover. Yeah, they blew the cover.
Speaker 2:They did a whole story and now owners are freaking out because you know it's interesting. I mean, if he buys that he will be able to make one hell of a combined project. This is true. That is a lot of space in Brickell I think they're denied.
Speaker 1:They didn't comment or deny it. Odds are it's them yeah, like yeah, and I think, or somebody being even sneakier Doing that and then trying to extort him for even more.
Speaker 2:That would be. That would be. That would be very Miami. That would, yeah, there's been a lot of very Miami things that have been happening recently. It's true, it's yeah, a lot of legal things. A lot of things are sort of shaking out. Oh, speaking of legal things, biscayne 21 slash. The Addition is sort of jogging along. They finished the seawall on it so it has a complete seawall. They had to raise a seawall and they are. The rumors I hear are they are telling me to expect demolition of Biscayne 21 in January. Oh, wow.
Speaker 2:Okay, which means that they think that their court case is about to come in.
Speaker 1:Yes, that's good news.
Speaker 2:Yeah, I mean honestly the people at Biscayne 100% was nonsense.
Speaker 1:That'll never happen.
Speaker 2:They just need to take their check and move on.
Speaker 1:And they can't come back.
Speaker 2:The building is doomed, doomed and dead. Anything else you'd like to talk about?
Speaker 1:Hmm, hmm, hmm. Hmm, I had something that just slipped, my mind.
Speaker 2:You, I had something that just slipped my mind. You've made so many videos recently.
Speaker 1:Oh, I spoke at stuff, I spoke at the. Real Estate Congress. I did something for the Real Deal which we're waiting a video from them. I spoke with the head of analytics of CoStar.
Speaker 2:Okay, how'd that go?
Speaker 1:Very great. He's a great guy, Juan. Actually, I spoke to him yesterday and I contributed some stuff for a CoStar article coming out soon. Okay, and stuff for a CoStar article coming out soon.
Speaker 2:Okay, and you were in the South Florida Business Journal, weren't you?
Speaker 1:Yeah, yeah, on the bubble article that I mentioned, where I didn't like their title, but Eric did a great job. He wrote a very well-balanced article, but the headline hurt me.
Speaker 2:What was the?
Speaker 1:headline Miami Head's Global List of Bubbles, or something.
Speaker 2:Oh, no, Risk of Bubbles.
Speaker 1:Yes, but his article was good. He actually gave well-balanced things. He gave me four or five paragraphs. It was not just me, other people too.
Speaker 2:It was actually a comprehensive, well-rounded article, but the headline- yeah, I think I told you that most times, journalists don't control the headlines.
Speaker 1:Yeah, that might be it's editorialized. The headline. I felt did the article a disservice.
Speaker 2:It was a very well-balanced article. Yeah, oh, here's something interesting. This is the. In Brickell alone, there are 5,254 units coming to market by 2029. 5,000 units. It's fascinating. And there's a couple here that I'm very interested in. I'm very interested in the Mercedes-Benz places the Aura by Casa Tua, and in the Mercedes-Benz places the Oro by Casa Tua, and the 120 Residences 120 Residences by PMG.
Speaker 1:With the hotels, with the offices.
Speaker 2:Yeah, you're going to get deeded offices with each condo purchase. That's pretty cool, which I think is a really cool idea, and 120 Brickell is actually only one side of that. There's actually going to be two towers there.
Speaker 1:What's the other one Unnamed?
Speaker 2:Unnamed. Okay, but it was called Central before, and then they rebranded it.
Speaker 1:And what do we see in the press today? That Terra Group might be trying to get at something else past. Oh my God. So they came in at 12% ownership or something like that with the Morelos. At some point they bought in and now they're trying to. This was initially so. Stephen Ross, a related co, was initially under contract contingent upon Like for $500 million North Beach and Miami Beach Contingent upon the passage of a referendum that would allow them to build something there that was in excess of in-place FAR.
Speaker 1:So that was voted out. Voters did not vote to Miami Beach.
Speaker 2:Voters did not approve it by like a large amount, by a large amount.
Speaker 1:And then Stephen Ross pulled out and it's been like two years or so, and now David Martin and Tara have stepped in and now they're asking for more.
Speaker 2:Way more. God bless them. But they're— but in exchange there's a— they're putting a carrot in front of the people. Yes, they're saying they will reconstruct the historical parts of the Doaville that are historically important in exchange for adding three towers.
Speaker 1:They want to build like 40 floors.
Speaker 2:But I think the way that they're trying to do it this time is they're trying to make it not go through a referendum, because if they can get it through the design, something board.
Speaker 1:So my friend Michael Larkin is an attorney. He trains jiu-jitsu where I. So my friend Michael Larkin is an attorney. He actually trains jujitsu where I train. Hello, michael Larkin, he's actually quoted the article and apparently he's the person counseling them on this.
Speaker 2:Okay.
Speaker 1:So he's very smart. So if anyone can do it, I'm sure he's figured it out.
Speaker 2:That's going to be a very interesting thing to get it through with that. It was going to be a fascinating process to watch, Because the Dough Bowl didn't really have a ton of historical stuff.
Speaker 1:But you know, the preservation board is quite strange. They'll pretend something does.
Speaker 2:Okay.
Speaker 1:And I have no problem saying that I think the results.
Speaker 2:Yeah, I mean, it had like an interesting entryway Right and that was it. The rest of it was a box.
Speaker 1:They're like oh, the Beatles performed there. Listen, in 20 years, is anyone really going to care? Yeah, probably not. No, it's like, I guess, my topic of glorification of the past, putting it on an undue pedestal, because, remember, back then, black performers also couldn't sleep on the beach and had to go off the beach. So when Sammy Davis Jr was performing there, technically speaking he couldn't sleep there or go through the main entrance, I believe. So, listen, you can't cherry pick the past is all I'm going to say.
Speaker 2:You really can't. And I mean, look, they're also redoing the standard on the.
Speaker 1:Venetian, that's right.
Speaker 2:And it's kind of a big deal because the daughter of the original architect is on the board. That's like a carrot that makes people feel better. But there's drama there because they tried to pay the Belle Isle Resident Association. They gave them some money. It wasn't a bribe per se, but it wasn't not a bribe. And so here's a couple million dollars to fix some things. If you guys don't go against this project. Ah and so now it's a big drama because apparently that's not legal. You just, oh, you can't bribe neighborhood associations.
Speaker 1:Why not? I'm kidding.
Speaker 2:It's Miami, but anyways, I think, you know, I think a lot has happened, a lot will continue to happen.
Speaker 1:Agree.
Speaker 2:And there's a lot of good projects happening. We have a couple projects we're working on as well, which should be happening in the next couple weeks, so I think it's good. I think there's going to be a lot happening in Miami. Keep your eyes and ears open for it.
Speaker 1:I think, in fact, stuff is going to speed up now post-election. The pause has been lifted whatever there was in terms of a subconscious pause in the world and I feel like we're going to just continue along our path now.
Speaker 2:Yeah, and people keep saying that you know Trump winning is quite good for Florida.
Speaker 1:I think it is. Oh, I was quoted on that. Ah, yes, I was in the South Florida Business Journal a few times. Okay, that was two articles ago and I actually am quite proud of my quote on this. I'm going to read it so I don't misquote myself. And what I told the South Florida Business Journal was that, given the team that he has assembled, most notably and this was on like the day after the election, they called me. I was like, okay, I got it Given the team that he has assembled, most notably, elon Musk, I believe that a Trump presidency will be aligned with entrepreneurs and creators. Since South Florida is attracting taxpayers and creators, our housing market will be further supercharged by an administration that fosters entrepreneurship.
Speaker 2:Wow.
Speaker 1:That was my quote.
Speaker 2:And also rates will probably come down and all of those fun things. Excellent. We made it through the election and now we're almost to the new year. That's right, our birthdays. Through the election and now we're almost the new year.
Speaker 1:That's right, our birthdays.
Speaker 2:Oh my God, yes, our birthdays, december 4th to December 5th.
Speaker 1:If you guys want to guess anything, feel free. December 4th to December 5th.
Speaker 2:Yeah.
Speaker 1:But I'm much older than him.
Speaker 2:Not by that much. You look great, but Thank you. Today we had a marathon content. This is our like third hour of content, but some exciting things. Thank you, guys for watching and we shall see you very soon. Ciao, ciao, bye, guys.
