Insta‑FootPol. AFCON Fallout, Iran World Cup Participation and Iranian Women’s Asylum

In the FootPol Podcast's latest episode, Francesco Belcastro and Guy Burton unpack the latest political storms that have shaken the football world in the past week. They start with the AFCON 2025 controversy, examining the dramatic reversal of Senegal’s victory against Morocco, the refereeing disputes, CAF politics and the political fallout for fans and federations. The discussion then moves to the looming 2026 World Cup in the United States, where Iran’s men’s team faces unprecedented challenges due to the ongoing US–Iran conflict, FIFA’s scheduling decisions and political pressure. Finally, they cover the Iranian women’s football team in Australia, whose asylum claims spotlight the complexities of migration policy, international politics and sport. Across these stories, the episode reveals how football, geopolitics and international regulations collide, shaping the future of the game on and off the field. 

Transcript

Francesco Belcastro 0:09

Hello and welcome to the latest episode of the football podcast. This is a special episode, also known as an Insta Football by some. I'm one of your co-hosts, Dr. Francesco Bel Castro. Here with me is my other co-host, Dr. Guy Burton. Hello guy, how are you?

Guy Burton 0:24

I'm hi Francesco. I'm doing well, thanks. Uh good, yeah. I who else calls it the Insta football?

Francesco Belcastro 0:30

Only me. Only me, really. I really like the name, so I'm not gonna drop it just because it didn't be. Fair enough.

Guy Burton 0:34

And it also, I mean, and it's I think in a way, actually, it is it's nice because it sort of distinguishes these kind of episodes from the other kind of episodes that we generally do, isn't it? Yeah.

Francesco Belcastro 0:42

Yeah, it does. I mean, it's particularly important now since there is there's so many things going on in in relationship between football and politics that would you know we'll struggle to keep up. So what specifically got us to do this recording, Guy? Why are we here?

Guy Burton 0:56

Yeah, so just so listeners know, this is kind of uh you know, comes in between. We normally do episodes every sort of two weeks, every Monday. Um, but we've allowed ourselves a little bit of space to talk about things that are a bit more topical. Most of the podcasts that we do tend to be a little bit researched with a bit of um, you know, bringing in a guest who's worked on something and getting them to talk about their uh their work. Uh but this but we've been finding in the last few weeks, well certainly since the start of the year, there's been so much news going on, and we felt we needed something to respond to the things that are developing. So we've talked in the past a couple of weeks ago about um the US-Israel war on Iran, what that means for the World Cup, and we're going to touch upon a little bit of that. Um, but with regards to the men's uh part men's team's participation in the World Cup happening in a few months' time, but we also wanted to touch upon what this means for Iran's women's football team, because some of you may be aware that the Iranian foot women's football team was playing in the Asian Cup uh down in Australia uh a few weeks ago, and then there's been a whole bit issue around uh asylum claims uh by some of the team, and yeah, we want to talk about that. But we really want to get started, Francesco, with the other stop story that's been in the news in the last week, don't we?

Francesco Belcastro 2:09

So, yeah, what has been uh in the news is that the Confederation of African Football, after 56 days after the famous or infamous final of the African uh Cup of Nations between Morocco and Senegal, has decided to change uh the uh decision or the outcome on the field, which was um a victory by uh by Senegal and give the cup to Morocco. Now this is interesting from a football point of view, it's it's probably unprecedented uh in terms of major tournament. Uh listeners might or might not remember that the final itself was quite controversial because of the refereeing, which was perceived by many as favoring uh the All-Snations Morocco, and Senegal decided to leave the pitch um uh on 90-something minutes, and they came back and won the cup. So that's just to sort of uh so the the Federation has now decided that uh the match was abandoned by Senegal and they've given the cup to Morocco. Now, why is this important from a political point of view? Um why it's been discussed. Well, first of all, there is sort of a politics of of the Aust Nations, so you know, the kind of favoring the Ost Nation, but there is also the sort of uh FIFA dynamic to it, which is the fact that A, the Moroccan Federation, is perceived to be um supportive of um FIFA President Gian Infantino, uh, but also the president of CAF, uh Patrick Montsepe, is seen as a close ally of President Infantino. So there is a dimension which is sort of FIFA politics. Now, obviously, as you were mentioning, there is also the fact that we had a few months uh before uh the World Cup, so it's it's difficult not to keep in mind um the politics, the the connection between these uh mismanagement by FIFA and by sorry, by FIFA and by the CAF, and and what will happen in a few months. That's our starting point, I think.

Guy Burton 4:00

Yeah. I mean, there is a number of other things to add about this. So you're right. I mean, it the the refereeing, it was but the issue comp there were concerns about refereeing not just in this game but in the tournament as a whole. Um, I mean, we don't really want to go down the path of conspiracy theories or anything like that, but there was some reporting throughout the the conferen the tournament that Morocco's Morocco seemed to be getting a bit of a bit of an easier ride from referees throughout the tournament. Um there is of course the question as to why um you know you would you would have thought that with this game, with the Senegalese walking off for 14 minutes in in during added time and having just had a goal disallowed um when they conceded this penalty, that why on earth would um you know why why was the game not called off then and there? Why did the referee not just say match abandoned? Um it's come out in the last couple of days. Um it's been reported on Canal Plus, you know, the French channel, um, that apparently the referee did want to stop the game, but was told by the refereeing commission's president to just pr to not not apply the rules strictly and to continue. Um I guess perhaps because the context of the game itself, uh there was a little bit of disrupt, there was some disruption and tension, uh violence in the crowd uh in the lead up to the Senegalese players walking off. A number of Senegalese fans were clashing with um secure with security officials, riot police were called in, um, the uh seats were started to be thrown around. Um this actually did have consequences after the game because uh about 18 Senegalese uh fans were prosecuted and given jail times between three months and a year, as well as fines for uh hooliganism, um, which actually has also another political uh dimension here because the Senegalese Prime Minister Um Usama Sonko actually criticized that decision uh taking place in Morocco uh along with the Senegalese FA criticizing it. So, you know, there has been political consequences as a result of this this final, even before this happened.

Francesco Belcastro 6:01

Yeah, I think there is a there is obviously like we can discuss about the decision at the time, and there might have been ground at the time to to suspend the match. Uh as you said, there were security considerations, but I think a lot of people were surprised by this decision now. I think that what the media was expecting probably a fine against the Senegalese Federation, potentially uh some points being docked in the next uh qualifications, but I think the sort of uh subverting the decision has been uh has been quite surprising, and the reaction in Senegal and other African countries as well has been quite uh quite strong at high political level. Um so I think it's the first round. I think is uh I think we're gonna hear from these um story a lot, and and it it seems to me that it it speaks also a lot about uh um power relations uh uh and the perception that some federations that are closer to to FIFA and to the FIFA presidency tend to get the best uh outcome in terms of decisions, uh, which is not a great start a few months before the the World Cup because of what else we're gonna be talking about, right, guy?

Guy Burton 7:09

Yeah, but yeah, but let's also just note as well that you know after the match, the Moroccan FA did lodge a complaint uh with CAF, and uh it was and and initially CAF said uh no, the result stands. But about a day later, it was uh Infantino said these are disgraceful scenes, and with FIFA coming out, suddenly CAF was like started to look into the issue again. So, what we actually have is the decision was made by the appeals board on that first decision. Uh the appeals board effectively forfeited Senegal's uh win and cancelled it, awarding Morocco to the title. Now, as you know, Senegal's FA has also said we're not stopping here, we're going to take it to the Court of Arbs, Court of Arbitration in sport. Some people think this this is like a Supreme Court that can reverse decisions, although it should be said that CAS operates more on technicalities like was the process followed rather than you know was the decision made a correct one or not. So, you know, the idea that it's yeah, we are still in flux with this, but this doesn't necessarily mean that the decision that was taken by CAF is going to be overturned.

Francesco Belcastro 8:15

Another thing to keep in mind is that um these uh Morocco lost in the um the African Cup of Nations was seen by many as a run dry for the World Cup that Morocco we lost in 2030, together with uh France, sorry, with Spain and Portugal, not France, and partially with with a couple of South American countries. Um and the feedback from the tournament had been extremely positive by the media in particular because of the infrastructures, uh, because of the stadium, because of transportations, because of how the tournament was run. And these as this is risking throwing a bit of uh some doubts uh uh on what has been uh what has been uh what is seen as a success. I think it's a lot of comparison between this edition and the previous ones by media and journalists that have been present, and they've been commenting on how good the train system is between Moroccan cities or how impressive the infrastructure is. I'm wondering whether this is gonna be something that um yeah kind of hides that a bit uh and and uh maybe perhaps raises some doubts.

Guy Burton 9:20

That's a very good point to make, which is that this has been a very well well successfully organized um tournament and the infrastructure has been in place. So the so making this ruling actually sort of undermines or weakens a little bit of the credibility associated with Morocco. And it's also interesting to see that this hasn't necessarily percolated through to the Moroccan team yet, because if you if um the Moroccan captain Ashraf Hakimi, who's uh also a defender of you know PSG, he said, you know, I'm rejecting this. I'm not saying I'm not going to accept this that Morocco won. We lost to Senegal. Um so it's interesting that you know it's been the Moroccan FA that's been sort of taking this and pursuing this this uh this this um this change in the decision, and and Morocco's captains saying no. However, that said, let's keep in mind that Morocc that you know Hakimi is only one player. He still has to persuade the rest of the team not to accept it. And even if they reject it, you know, the Moroccan FA also has to has to be persuaded about that as well. So you can see that there's something interesting here as well, which is political, that you know, there's a discussion about narratives, perception, which are important here. Um the perception was you know, Senegal won after a very controversial final. Uh CAF's ruling has basically up-ended and disrupted that our understanding of that and has put thrown everything into question. It's also not only undermined the Moroccans' credibility, but undermined itself. So that's AFCON, and we will keep tabs on that. So maybe when we might revisit this, as and when CAS uh puts down a ruling in a few months' time. But now let's move on to the World Cup itself, right, Francesco, because we you know you alluded to the fact that there are sort of the we are coming into that, and there is obviously another controversy that's been brewing and which we've talked about in the past. What was that?

Francesco Belcastro 11:08

Well, we are first of all, we are three weeks into this senseless um uh war by Israel and and and the USA on on Iran and things got incredibly uh more um complex and and worse since when we uh recorded a couple of weeks ago. Um and obviously these we're not saying that football is the main thing or the world cup is the main thing here given the loss of lives, the impact on the economy, there are obviously more important things, but it has uh an effect on on football, keeping in mind that the world cup uh will take place or should take place uh in the US in two months' time, in a bit more than two months' time now, US, Canada, um, and Mexico. And in particular, and we have spoken previously about the participation of Iran, the involvement of Iran in this uh World Cup. Now, we're discussing last time, guy. We still think it's an unprecedented thing, right? That a country that uh is hosting a major tournament wages war on one of the countries that are meant to be playing in this tournament a few months before the tournament starts. So obviously the question is what will Iran do? Will Iran participate? And you have been following that quite closely. It's been a quite interesting um meridance of diplomacy, should we say. So, what has happened, guy?

Guy Burton 12:22

Diplomacy and people desperate to not have to take the first move or make the make the decision, right? Because at the time when we we when we last spoke about this a few weeks back, um the Iranian uh football association was saying this is deeply problematic. How are we going to be able to play um you know, given the circumstances? Um, we talked a little bit about what's what the consequences of Iran pulling out might mean in terms of it being sanctioned and and and penalized by FIFA. Um now the Iranian FA has simply put the ball into FIFA's court uh in the last week by saying, why you know we don't want to leave the World Cup. We still want to be in the World Cup, but why do we have to play in the United States? Can't we move our games to Mexico, for instance? Um, to which the FIFA has finally broken uh its silence because it was very quiet when we last looked at this. FIFA has responded by saying, no, you can't. The games are taking place in the United States, in Seattle, in Los Angeles. Um, interestingly enough, uh Mexico's president, Claudio Schenbaum, has said we are happy to host the Iranians if they wanted to play in in Mexico. Although it should also be said as well that Mexico's FA and the organizing committee, the cities themselves in Mexico, haven't said anything. They've not made any decisions about this. Um, in a way, they're waiting for for FIFA, I guess, to come back with that. Also, keep in mind that in the last week we've had Trump uh on his Truth Social uh post talking about the dangers that the Iranian players and officials might face um, you know, should they come and play the game their games. So, you know, this is the host.

Francesco Belcastro 13:55

Absolutely shameful declarations by Trump. Absolutely shameful declarations by President Trump.

Guy Burton 14:01

And yet we don't have FIFA doesn't seem to be standing up or set or condemning this uh to or criticizing its its first Peace Prize recipient uh for saying such things or suggesting alternative um you know organizing. Now, why is that? I suppose perhaps the reasons for this is because everything seems to be locked into place. You know, players and teams have already started already know this is where they're going to be playing. Uh federations have been uh arranging and organizing, you know, hotel accommodation, playing fields, and all that sort of thing. Broadcasters have um you know know that these are going to be the games take taking place at this particular time times, you know, Iran's opponents as well would have to be affected but if the games were to be moved as well. Um and it would be problematic, for example, like for the Egyptians who would face the difficulty of getting visas, not just for the United States, but also for Mexico. I'm thinking about fans there.

Francesco Belcastro 14:53

Yeah, can I say, guys, that there is there is a bigger political problem there, which is the fact that Infantino has essentially put all of his uh eggs in one basket, which is a support for President Trump, and and essentially cornered himself put himself in a corner. He's got no other alternatives now, but to go with uh with President Trump as as the man proves to be more and more insane and and keep waging this war. That's that's not much that FIFA can do. Because Infantino and FIFA cannot risk upsetting President Trump. So essentially, as you said, they've been just keeping quiet and hope that the Iranian team just decides not to show up and doesn't and solve that problem for them. As that's I think like uh um reflecting upon it now. It's and we mentioned a lot of people mentioned it before, it's very risky um to invest every day in the relationship with uh with the US president, and now we we're seeing why.

Guy Burton 15:41

Yeah, but it's also ironic that you know here we have a World Cup where it's not just one country um hosting it, it's it's three countries. There are other co-hosts, there's a Mexico and Canada. Um, you would have thought that you know it logically it would be possible to move uh the games, but I suppose you know, also in FIFA's thinking is now that everything's been locked in, it's going to be that much harder, and it may also risk you know demands for compensation from the cities involved uh that would have to that would lose the games, those that that would have to host them, uh that it would open up the whole tournament schedule. And there's also obviously the question of what happens you know beyond the group games themselves. I mean, there's it's very unlikely that Iran's going to even if they even if they do play that they're going to get through the group stage.

Francesco Belcastro 16:26

It's not it's not impossible with the with the current format guy, yeah. I mean it's the group, it's it's open, it's not you know, it's not a done deal. We we've seen strangers things happen. But I think it's would the US administration be happy with with Iran playing its matches in Mexico? I don't think so. I think part of the deal is that there is you know that whatever FIFA does, does it uh through the with the approval and agreement of of the US of President Trump. So I'm not really sure that that this possibility was there to start with. That's that's my opinion.

Guy Burton 16:57

Possibly. It's I mean I don't I don't discount it. I mean ultimately I think FIFA would pr much prefer it if Iran were to just uh you know to just withdraw and it would be less of a headache for them. But then of course, then with that, Iran would then face you know sanctions and fines for you know withdrawing at such a late stage, you know, being penalized getting so you know it's it's it's kind of it's it seems I it seems ironic that it's it's the country that you know is being attacked that's going to also be uh penalized doubly so if it was to withdraw. And there doesn't seem to be any kind of corresponding sanction on the United States at all.

Francesco Belcastro 17:35

It completely reflects the the unfairness and injustice of the international system because whatever you think about the the Iranian regime and uh and what it's going on domestically in Iran, is there's no debate that from an international uh law point of view, Iran is under attack. Uh and plus as you as you mentioned before, the the those country has has a duty to guarantee uh safe participation too and and the US is not even trying to do that. Uh I mean as we mentioned before, that some of the declaration by President Trump for essentially implying the risk of violence on on Iranian players, it's uh it's unheard of. And I think as you said, like there is a risk that Iran will be double penalized, and uh, whatever you think about this, there's no way that this is fair and and and it should be accepted. Um I personally I find it outrageous.

Guy Burton 18:23

Yeah. So really the decision is sort of sitting in Iran FA's court, I think is is the is the best way we can put it. But of course, the it's it's not just um the World Cup that's being affected by the US uh Israel attack or uh war on Iran, is it? There's another aspect to this story as well, which we wanted to touch upon.

Francesco Belcastro 18:43

Yeah, there is the issue of um the um Iranian uh women's football team and their refugee status in in Australia. What has happened there, guy? And why is it important from a political point of view?

Guy Burton 18:55

Well, a number of reasons. So if if you if you recall, um I think we only touched upon this very briefly the last time we did one of these insta-football football episodes where we talked about the fact that the Iranian women's football team was out in Australia playing in the Asian uh cup out there. Um and there was going to be questions, there were questions as to what does this mean for them to be able to when they if if and when they do come back. Um so what happened was that uh seven of the players were initially uh granted asylum in Australia, uh, although in the end five of them uh chose to return with the team back to Tehran. Uh two of them are now still remaining in Australia. And as you can imagine, given the context of what's going on at the moment, um the Iranian, Iranian foot, well, the Iranian authorities, the government, has uh made a big use this as a big PR uh exercise victory. Um saying that you know this is, you know, the the players wanted to come back, that they, you know, that that they didn't seek try to escape from from Iran, that this is a victory for, you know, for for the Iranian people in a in a way. Um so so there's that political dimension in that sense that they've been treating this as a victory. They've also been talking about um how many of the women that were being uh interviewed um for asylum for asylum claims were being pressured by the Australian authorities to take it. Um so and also interestingly enough as well, uh Trump himself had uh indicated his desire for the Australians to grant these uh women players uh asylum as well. So you can see how all of this sort of feeds in and and and affected perhaps the the women's decisions on whether or not to accept asylum in Australia or to leave. Um there's also another dimension to this as well, if I may, Francesco, which is about you know setting this in the wider context of Australia's asylum uh system. Uh Australia has a, you know, not it's in this respect, Australia is not much different to other Western countries. As you know, over the years, over in recent times, um, Western countries have become a lot more um how how might I put this um negative towards uh immigration and asylum, which they often confuse, even though the two things are very different, uh, but they treat it as the same. Um, Australia's asylum system has been getting much tougher, much harsher towards people who make those kind of claims since the 1990s. This has happened under both kinds of governments, whether Labour governments or the Liberal governments. Um, what you've seen is them making it harder for people to be able to claim asylum, particularly those arriving on boats, um, because of course there was an awful lot of uh Cambodian and Vietnamese um boat people, if you recall back you know, sort of in earlier times. Um so they made it a lot harder for people to claim to claim asylum. They've made it a lot harder for them to get permanent protection, uh, which is the kind of asylum off asylum offering that they were considering with regard to the um Iranian the Iranian women's football players. Um and in Increase and there what has been over time the use of temporary protection, which means that uh people are only given a certain limited amount of asyl of uh rights to remain in Australia and that constantly stays under review, which makes it very hard and difficult for people to be able to uh make you know to live their lives, to be able to prepare for the future. Um when you're having your asylum claim heard, you're not allowed to access uh healthcare, you're not allowed to work, you're not allowed to, you know, it's very hard to make any kind of plans at all. Um in Australia right now, we have around 30,000 people still awaiting decisions on whether or not they will be granted their uh their their asylum claims. Um deportation cases have risen from around 50,000 to over 100,000 uh in the last five to six years. Um the processing time can take between six to two, six months to two years. Um, you know, it and this is for a country, by the way, where, you know, only around in the last four three, you know, in 20 between 2012 and 2022, so in that decade, 180,000 people were granted asylum, right? That's less than 1% of global claims for asylum. This is a country that's really, really hard, harsh, really difficult on people trying to get asylum, has introduced offshoring. So people have for for a number of times for a number for a period of time, uh asylum claims were being heard on Nauru, on Papua New Guinea, on Christmas Island. They didn't want these people on the Australian homeland.

Francesco Belcastro 23:30

So are you suggesting guy that that the Australia is using this for a true political point, for a bit of PR? Is that what you're saying?

Guy Burton 23:37

I wouldn't go so far as to say that, but I would say that it does seem very striking that given a very harsh politic harsh asylum system that is in existence, how it seems to open up and move very quickly when it came to the Iranian women's football team players. Those seven players received heard and received their asylum decisions in a very, very quick period of time. And I think that tells you a lot about how political this issue was. Absolutely.

Francesco Belcastro 24:09

Okay, guy. So I think our listeners are now up to speed with with the latest. You want to add anything or I was thinking about it.

Guy Burton 24:17

It's three different stories. I mean, okay, the two the two regarding Iran are are somewhat linked, but you know, trying to link this also with the earlier AFCON uh controversy that we started out with at the top of the show. What pulls these things together? I think it's really this this issue that there's a bunch of rules that seem to be operating here, but it ultimately it comes down to power whether those rules are enforced or not enforced. So whether it's in the case of AFCON, right, we've had you know the rule of whether or not you uh forfeit the game if your players leave the pitch. Uh, that was initially decided, no, we're not going to do it. And then when FIFA and others got involved, yes, we are going to do it. Uh, when it comes to uh the Iranian women's football team, you know, this is, as I've just said to you, this is an asylum system in Australia which is really harsh, takes a hell of a long time for people to get their asylum claims uh heard, considered, and passed. In the case of these seven players, it was done very, very quickly. And then finally, I suppose in the case of the ongoing issues, which I don't think are going to finish before 20, you know, before the start of the uh regarding the World Cup, you know, this is a decision where FIFA is not, you know, has made it clear. We we don't want these games to be moved from the US to Mexico. The ball is back in Iran's court. What are you going to do about it? And the choices seem to be narrowing for Iran there. It's either we accept that or we withdraw.

Francesco Belcastro 25:38

Yeah. Guy, we also need to tell our listeners that we we're gonna update them soon on the latest development on Israel and Palestine because there's been interesting things going on there. But that's for uh that's for another insta football. Yeah, yeah, yeah. Guy, thank you very much. It's been really interesting. What do we need to tell our listeners before we go?

Guy Burton 25:56

Well, as ever, so I mean, if you found this of interest, uh please do uh get back to us and let us know. We always would love to hear your feedback, uh topics that you think that we should also be covering in the future, for maybe for an another another Insta foot poll like this. Um, so do email us on our uh foot poll page email group address, which is footpolpodcast at gmail.com, or you can reach out to us on the various social media channels that we have. We have a Facebook page, we have a LinkedIn page, well, sorry, Facebook page, Blue Sky page, Instagram page, and then Francesco and I each have individual LinkedIn accounts that you can uh reach out to us there. Um, also if you would consider please liking, sharing, and subscribing to the podcast. This ensures that you will receive it uh straight into your inbox in future. And we'd also really welcome it if you would share this podcast uh with people that you know who might enjoy it, who might find it of interest, uh, and simply because it helps grow the audience. So when are we going to be back?

Francesco Belcastro 26:54

Well, in a few days, but it's gonna be a Monday episode this time, uh a regular one, so Monday morning for our listeners.

Guy Burton 27:02

Brilliant. Well, let's listen, Francesca, it was good talking to you, and I'm sure we will probably come back and revisit one or more of these uh issues in the next couple of weeks, months. Uh it seems like football and politics cannot be uh way separated from each other, yeah. Exactly. Yeah. Anyway, okay, so we'll talk again soon. Bye. Thanks.

Francesco Belcastro 27:23

Bye bye, bye, bye, bye.