Fueling Change in Venezuela

How do we understand what just happened in Venezuela in the greater context of coups and regime change efforts? Will fresh US investment and the revitalization of Venezuela's oil industry be enough to propel the nation forward towards becoming a vibrant democracy once again? And what kind of intelligence will be required along the way? 

Join us for a discussion of this momentous event.

Transcript

Julia (00:01)
Welcome back to Straight From the Shoulder, where this week we're going to be talking about the topic that everyone is speaking about, and that is the US capture of Venezuela's Nicolas Maduro. Now, this was remarkable in several ways. The US obviously captured a sitting leader of a foreign nation and brought him to the United States of America for trial, and yet, the regime is still intact in many ways in Venezuela as Maduro's vice president, Delcy Rodriguez, and a lot of the most powerful government figures, I'm thinking here of the Interior Minister, Defense Minister, are all still in place. Jack, how would you describe what just transpired here?

Jack Devine (00:44)
Well, I think it's one of the major, regime change moves in modern history. There are precedents sure, but we put the full American US power right on the border and basically went in with a highly sophisticated operation, which is very risky. People have no idea if all you have to do is look back at every risky operation and losses and dangers and chance for flap. The way it was handled, you just have to give it an A plus in terms of the technical snatching. But as far as regime change, it's actually quite different than most regime change.

Julia (01:19)
Right, so what happened here was that the regime was altered, or the regime was shifted kind of one level up. Have you seen anything like this happen before in history?

Jack Devine (01:31)
I have, and I think I'll share--but Venezuela's on steroids compared to the one that I want to tell you about, but it does show you the dynamic involved. And I want to make the point because, you've mentioned it a couple of times that the incumbents are still in, but they're not in, in the sense that they're on even playing ground. They know they cannot withstand American power. I mean, I'm just telling you as a matter of fact that I know that their military is well aware that they cannot withstand a direct attack. So the event I'm thinking of is back in '94 when I was Chief of Latin American Division, President Clinton had promised to put President Aristide back in power in Haiti. And because of my menacing look or what do they call it, sinister look, they sent me down there.

Julia (02:17)
It's really too bad the audience can't see you right now, Jack, because he looks scary, everyone. Very scary.

Jack Devine (02:22)
Yeah, I was born this way and that's why the CIA hired me for the look. They hired me for the look, nothing else. But they sent me down and I sat down with the chief of police, basically their internal security, and said, look, it's time to leave town. He thought I threatened to kill him and his wife and children, which I did not mention his wife and children. But at the point, was an intimidation effort. You don't do this, you're out. They kept negotiating. In fact, I give Jimmy Carter credit- although he disobeyed a president, no new former president could do that. He stayed at the bargaining table. But what they knew was that we had our Air Force ready to leave Florida and I had prepared our field teams and everything else to deal with it. We actually had a unit centered to us in advance. So what happened is the minute the planes took off, they ran away. They packed up bags and left town. As menacing as I look, there's nothing like the United States Air Force to really scare you. So I think we're looking at that in the Venezuelan case.

Julia (03:18)
So why didn't the intimidation campaign work against Maduro himself?

Jack Devine (03:22)
Well, because I think the execution of the operation to yank him out is about as intimidating you get. Before that, it's jaw-boning, right? The intimidation begins the minute the Air Force takes off. It's not when Jack Devine is sitting across the table offering you opportunities, financial opportunities, or telling you to get out of town. But once the Air Force takes off, once they snatched them, that was the big intimidation. But it's not that they snatched them. They destroyed their Air Force's ability to fight back. They're like the Iranians. The Israelis can bomb them tomorrow, next week. That is intimidation. Now, that's why when we talk about, we have this group in and when are we going to get them out? I would say this is the Zelensky play. They do not have cards. Now, it doesn't mean that it isn't difficult and we're going to require a very high level of statesmanship, but it's not a negotiating state like you give me one and I give you two. It's how you orderly get out of town or else.

Julia (04:21)
So how important was it, how significant was it, that Maduro's immediate security/intelligence apparatus seemed to be mostly comprised of Cubans? Is that an indicator that his Venezuelan interlocutors had already fallen into a distrustful position where he couldn't rely on them anymore? Or is that more of a testament to Cuban expertise?

Jack Devine (04:44)
My experience with the Cubans goes back a long way. In fact, my first assignment with the Allende government, the core group defending and protecting Allende were the Cubans. And they were among the last fighting off the military. It was not successful, obviously. So what Cuba sells around the world is that type of protection. And they have a very good intelligence service way above their fighting weight but I'm not so sure it's as good as it used to be. But once America and Venezuela got crosswise, Venezuelan, the Russians, the Chinese, the Iranians saw it as a new playing ground, just like they saw Chile, or almost the same way. And what I'm saying is the same ingredients came to play. You're not gonna be allowed in this, whatever you call it, the Monroe Doctrine, You're not gonna play indefinitely here. So I'm not surprised they were the group but what it did show is the almighty power of the US military and its intelligence to go uninjured. Oh, that's not true. With no loss of life, but there were injuries. That was an impressive deed, and by anybody's standards in the intelligence area.

Julia (05:51)
And what kind of intelligence was required by the US military to do this capture in such an effective way?

Jack Devine (06:01)
I think you have to think of Bin Laden and Saddam Hussein and how you go about finding these people, their locations. But today with technology, there's an awful lot of power. You can run, but you can't hide. And because the country's such dissatisfaction, there are so many well-placed people who are still patriots of their country that are prepared to assist. So, my assumption looking at it is there's a combination of technology and well-placed sources and that they were able to identify where he is. We can do these tactical things very well, but the hardest part to do is what's happening inside the administration of a hostile government because it is so tight and the penalties are so high if you break it. I'm hopeful that our intelligence agencies have been working hard and they're well positioned for it. Because two things have to take place in the intelligence field now. We have to know every move that the incumbents are taking and everything they're thinking. And we need to have good intelligence in support of the democratic forces. In other words, the democratic forces have to come back to power. They have to know when they're coming back. They need to be prepared to take over every ministry. So there's a lot of work that has to be done by the practitioners of regime change.

Julia (07:20)
Let's jump into what's happening right now, Jack. Do you believe that Delcy Rodriguez, given these multiple pressures that she's under, both by the holdovers of the Maduro regime, the ideologues, the militias, and then simultaneously pressure from Secretary Marco Rubio, Trump, Stephen Miller, how is she going to be able to maintain control and how long do you see her holding on to control for?

Jack Devine (07:49)
Remember my position. And that position is that the US government can't walk away from this. You can't leave it this way. We're not going to leave it this way. So when you're going into it, you can negotiate all you want and think you're going to negotiate. Basically, she's going to be given an opportunity to leave in an orderly fashion, her country in an orderly fashion and hold the military together. But when you talk about various opposition groups, as long as the military is behind her - and everything I've seen is, Padrino Lopez and the military supporting her. And most Latin American militaries do follow the chain of command unless there's a particular crisis. So as long as she has a good relationship with him and Cabello, and I think it's in their three mutual interest to cut the best deal they can for themselves. And if they are any people of principle and for their institution. So I think time is President Trump's main enemy. The longer this goes on, the closer it gets to failure or chaos. This is where high form of statesmanship is required in making this thing work well and quick. So if we're here next year and they're still in power talking about election in another year, I hate the word failure in this, but for my standard, we're certainly in the wrong place. I expect this to move smartly. That doesn't mean tomorrow morning, but she's not hanging around and building a new villa and hanging up new paintings. She ought to be looking at nice warm places to go to spend her twilight years.

Julia (09:20)
The way that I understand President Trump's efforts in Venezuela, he's looking to move businesses in as quickly as possible. He's looking to help rebuild Venezuela's electricity grid, all of the broken infrastructure that's in shambles, looking to obviously exploit and profit from Venezuela's oil industry. And I think he sees economic development as helping to fuel the ground for the democratic process. However, it's going to take a lot to convince businesses to go back there, right? They're worried about their security. They're worried about legality, the perceptions, the stability. What do you think Venezuela needs right now in order to have US businesses comfortably or even remotely comfortably move in?

Jack Devine (10:07)
I think it starts with aspirations. You talk to the world and say, listen, a new deal here for you, new opportunities. The same thing with Ukraine, if the Russians are gonna get a ceasefire. There's so many people sitting on the sidelines looking at it. But you need to have plans, you need to start jawboning. I think President Trump is mindful of the fact no one's gonna put money on it until we're moving towards those elections. It's a very rich opportunity. Remember it was a hallmark of wealth and oil in its day. And it's been only in the past few decades that it's been such a disaster. It's a country with rich resources. So there will be no loss of opportunity, but there have to be democratic elections, before you feel the full weight of it. That's why I'm telling you time is the enemy. The sooner you get to that, the happier the population is gonna be, the country is gonna be, the world is gonna be. If the country becomes a vibrant democracy and an economic, this event will not be disputed. It is now because you can make arguments for uncertainty. I'm not in that category. But what I'm saying is this needs to move crisply. I see no reason to think that the incumbents in our government are going to drag their feet on this. There's too much at stake for US interests to do that.

Julia (11:22)
And just to push back a bit here, US oil and gas companies, they operate in countries all over the world that do not have democratically elected leaders. So what's different here about Venezuela that would be a prerequisite for what you're saying in terms of Trump's legacy and investment. What's different about Venezuela than most of the countries that have oil?

Jack Devine (11:43)
Because it's been a neglected country. It needs new power, it needs new gas stations, it needs schools. I mean, it needs everything. So no matter where you are, it's not just oil, but it's a business proposition and it's a rich opportunity. If it had no wealth and it just went through this and it was, this is your economy and this is all you get, businessmen would say, well, good luck. I hope your aid program works out. There's a real business opportunity. Ukraine needs to be totally rebuilt. They're sitting there and people are going to be patriotic, but they're also going to be businessmen. If you don't have a real business environment, you can jawbone til your dead. And right now it's a credible jawboning. Understanding everybody realizes you're not going to drill tomorrow. It's a couple of years in infrastructure, but the movement towards it will be very encouraging. Even the movement towards it will have a therapeutic effect on the economy.

Julia (12:31)
And do you think that the Chinese who obviously receive a lot of the Venezuelan oil and the Russians that have a lot of joint ventures on oil with the Venezuelans currently, some have been fairly recently renewed. How do you see them exiting or making deals with the Trump administration moving forward?

Jack Devine (12:48)
Boy, do you have a way of opening up a big session for next time with this? This is the, we're talking about this. 

Julia (12:53)
Okay, that's fair.

Jack Devine
I know, wait, no, but you're just absolutely tormenting me with you because you then insisted I get it done in 30 seconds. So I'm gonna do the 30 second version. You don't play in America's background. China, Russia, Iran, goodbye. Goodbye assets. Now, how is that done? How are the laws done? But I'm saying, if this is carried through, and we got three more years and that'll be an election. If I were the Chinese, I wouldn't be looking for more investments. I'd be like, how can I cut a deal with trade? Something that I've got over here with the Trump administration and try and get out of there. This is saying goodbye to you. It's not saying goodbye to you in Venezuela. It's saying goodbye in the hemisphere. So this is so much bigger than just Venezuela. This is a huge event. And again, one of your colleagues, Zach, who torments me consistently brought to our attention the National Security Policy Paper. And if you read it carefully, it's all spelled out there in the opening about the Western Hemisphere and where we're going. People don't pay enough attention to what's written and said. So this is momentous, this is a world changing event and I think the rest of this hemisphere is looking at this very carefully and I think the Chinese are very practical. One last note, when I was in Chile, there was the view that the Russians were looking to come to power through the democratic process. When it failed, they packed it in. They've been looking at this economic opportunity in our hemisphere and I think they just saw it fail in a policy way and that they're gonna have to be tracks, there'll be a lot less investment, the Iranians, I mean, who are very tight in Venezuela. So I think this is worthy of a longer discussion, but this is a big event and I believe many of the people watching it carefully understand that.

Julia (14:44)
That's fair, Jack. And I have slightly differing opinion on the Chinese just fleeing Latin America because of this one event. Certainly they have substantial and very important investments everywhere from Peru to Brazil, where the local governments are happy to work with them. So I will check this for another conversation.

Jack Devine (14:58)
We just differ on fleeing. Leaving, fleeing has a different connotation, which you don't have your shoes on or your pants pulled up all the way and you're running fast. I'm saying they're leaving.

Julia (15:17)
Interesting. And since we began on the note of intelligence, let's just wrap it up on intelligence now. What kind of intelligence, both on the public and private sector levels, will be required to open business and have a more stable Venezuela moving forward?

Jack Devine (15:35)
I think it would begin with the types of relationships you have with the new government. mean, if I were a businessman now, I'd be looking at the next leaderships in the economic arena, political arena, and I would be having discussions in the marketplace of where you think you're going to do business. in terms of intelligence, I'm more concerned about how we transition to the election, that the election is carried out as a democratic election. And I do believe we'll have our finger, and I know this will irritate nationalists, but we have to our finger on to make sure that that process is indeed democratic and the right leaders come to power so that the country moves forward and doesn't slide back into the abyss again. Intelligence is key here and knowing what's taking place in the government, when it's transitioning. And I think you have to be very careful, as we've often discussed, on where you turn for your source information. You need to stay out of the spinners and they're almost universal. You need to look at it. What's practical, cold-eyed reporting? Get it and run with it. And as Zach would say, come to The Arkin Group.

Julia (16:41)
Okay, thanks very much, Jack. This was fun and elucidating. I hope your optimism on a more positive future for Venezuela continues to manifest and that we get to continue this conversation.

Jack Devine (16:54)
The alternative is very scary.