Venezuela, What Happens Now?

On this timely episode, Nico Sabogal of The Arkin Group shares an update on the latest happenings in Venezuela and the country's political outlook.

Transcript

Julia (00:02)
Today, we are joined by Nico Sabogal, Latin America expert at The Arkin Group, who will be sharing some insights on the latest status in Venezuela.

It's been just over a month since the US captured Venezuela's long-standing leader, Nicolas Maduro, and brought him to New York to stand trial. But it's less clear to me how the rest of the Venezuelan leadership is handling the dramatic leadership shakeup and how the new standing president, Delcy Rodriguez, is balancing the demands of Washington with those of her own party.

Nico (00:41)
That's right. Venezuela's political landscape is entering a strange and very uneasy recalibration after Maduro's capture. After years of hardline repression under the Maduro regime, the acting government led by Delcy Rodriguez is signaling flexibility, at least on the surface.

Julia (00:58)
And what are some of the indicators of that flexibility?

Nico (01:02)
For example, the announcement of a sweeping amnesty bill for political prisoners, the release of all known detained US citizens, and the planned closure of the notorious Helicoide prison in Caracas marks one of the most significant shifts in state behavior over the last decade. It's a country used to symbolic gestures that rarely produce structural change. So the central question now is whether this moment reflects a genuine lasting political change or it's merely a tactical pause under extraordinary US pressure.

Julia (01:33)
Given that the regime is trying so hard to navigate this really tough balance between the US demands and what the government in Venezuela needs, Have you seen any signs that there's been a rupture within the country's leadership?

Nico (01:48)
With Maduro removed from the center of power, the ruling movement has swiftly moved to redistribute authority and project cohesion. There's no visible rupture at the top. Chavismo has a long history of closing ranks during moments of crisis. And from the outside, this makes near-term regime collapse seem unlikely. What has emerged is a cautious rebalancing designed to keep the state firmly under regime control while buying time amid deep uncertainty.

Julia (02:15)
Along those same lines, I had seen an article describing the way that Venezuela's current leadership dresses and what that might symbolize. For example, President Rodriguez dresses like a businesswoman, whereas Interior Minister Cabello dresses like a revolutionary or a Chavismo. Is there more to this than meets the eye?

Nico (02:37)
That's right. I mean, those factions aren't new. Behind closed doors. There's always been bitterness between the what we would call the security hardline faction. That's the is Cabello and Padrino Lopez. And then on the other side, we have the civic political faction, which is headed by the Rodriguez siblings. That's Delcy Rodriguez, the acting president and Jorge Rodriguez, the leader of the National Assembly.

Maduro was a key cog in balancing these interests. So the civilian leaders always wanted to appear as policy-oriented technocrats and the military security apparatus almost always favored confrontation, brutality, and cruelty to retain control.

Julia (03:14)
So should we think that Delcy Rodriguez, given her own history and opposition to external powers having impacted Venezuela, do we think she's going to be better, nicer, kinder, or more fair than Maduro?

Nico (03:27)
I don't see the Rodriguez siblings as better people. They're just more squeamish and conscious of their image. They and others in this civic political faction have long benefited from the dirty work carried out by Diosdado Cabello. Over the last decade, they were quite aware of the murders and torture that was used to sustain the regime, and they didn't object. In fact, they took all kinds of proactive steps to pass legislation that would make it easier for the state to round up and disappear dissidents often in the name of combating domestic terrorism or fascism or some other such label.

Julia (04:01)
Wow. So are they trying to clear their image now? I know that President Trump, one of his latest messaging against the government of Iran is certainly regarding how the Iranian leadership treats its own people. How is Delcy Rodriguez going to fare given that there is new attention to the domestic treatment of leaders abroad?

Nico (04:22)
Right, so I have the same assessment. I think Delcy and Jorge are trying to retroactively clean their image. Jorge Rodriguez gave an interview last week in which he was quick to point out that Hugo Chavez at one point mulled over the possibility of giving him the job of Minister of the Interior. But he decided against it because apparently Jorge was too nice and he would let all the prisoners go. This is the kind of behavior that is likely to anger the hardliners in the regime if they perceive that Delcy and Jorge are laying the groundwork for a transition and are primarily focused on protecting themselves from accountability, possibly at the expense of the military elite. It could trigger a palace coup or a more visible regime rupture at the top.

Julia (05:05)
And what's the role of business here? Does the passage of legislation opening the oil sector to privatization represent real change?

Nico (05:14)
The oil privatization measure is a big deal because it abandons one of the movement's most core ideological pillars. This is arguably the biggest legacy of the movement's spiritual leader, could say, Hugo Chavez, was the nationalization of the oil industry. So it highlights the awkwardness of the moment. It's reform driven not by conviction, but by necessity. For all the flexibility we see on display, there's little to suggest that the regime is preparing to voluntarily relinquish power. The concessions on oil policy and the release of political prisoners reads less as confidence. It's more restraint. It's an acknowledgement that the leadership understands its weakened position after Maduro's capture, and it's eager to reduce the risk of further US pressure. But that strategy carries its own significant risks.

Julia (06:02)
Yeah, I like what you said there about oil being kind of the spiritual or ideological facet of governance. When we think about what's happening in Iran and what happened with the nationalization of Iranian oil back in the 50s, how this was such a massive point of contention for all kind of Western interested powers, right? And so when you lose the oil or you open that up, you do lose this position of self. However, given that President Trump has made that an absolute requirement, how do you see this moving forward? Do we think the government's going to continue to comply?

Nico (06:40)
The regime has survived for years with minimal popular support, largely because of its repression machine. So loosening that apparatus even partially could create the political space for the opposition to mobilize in a way that it hasn't in over a decade. Keep in mind that essentially all of the major opposition figures left in Venezuela were behind bars until recently. So if fear recedes faster than the government anticipates, Delcy Rodriguez might find that her efforts to placate the Trump administration could be her undoing.

Julia (07:13)
So should we expect democratic elections in Venezuela anytime soon?

Nico (07:20)
It's hard to tell. What's clear is that the regime is weakened, it's licking its wounds, and it's primarily focused on the immediate task of maintaining its grip on key state institutions. Releasing political prisoners is, as I said before, it's a telling act of desperation, not a genuine heartfelt act of goodwill. At the same time, the Trump administration appears to have opted for preserving the regime's remnants rather than dismantling them outright. So in that context, elections begin to look like a plausible mechanism for managing a transition in an orderly fashion.

Julia (07:51)
And just to wrap it up, Nico, because it's hard to tell from the outside, there's the opposition leader Maria Corina Machado, who won the Nobel Peace Prize famously, but who was not put into power in Venezuela when Maduro was captured and removed. Does she still hold clout as a leader or a potential leader of the country from the perspective of Venezuelans?

Nico (08:17)
She's at the forefront of any democratic transition in almost any scenario. Maria Corina Machado is the unquestionable central figure in the opposition. And whether or not she herself is allowed to run, she would galvanize the vote and she would be a decisive factor in any election. Whether or not she's allowed in the country, she is the central voice of the Venezuelan people for the moment. So we need to keep an eye on her and not discount her influence.

Julia (08:41)
Thanks so much, Nico.

Nico (08:44)
Thank you.