Flying Over the Limits, with Denise Auclair

In this episode we sit down with a guest from last year, Denise Auclair, Head of the Travel Smart campaign at Transport and Environment in Brussels, to explore new research that links the growth of air tourism to rising housing rents across Europe. The headline is hard to ignore: in countries facing intense aviation-driven arrivals, unchecked growth could push rents up by as much as €250 a year on average in the coming years, on top of increases already felt.

We follow the chain reaction from cheap flights to overtourism, then into the housing market and everyday budgets. Denise explains how the impacts are not shared fairly: renters and lower income households take the hit first, while property owners benefit from rising values. We also look at who captures tourist spending in the hospitality sector, why real wages can lag even as visitor numbers climb, and how investment can be pulled into property at the expense of more productive parts of the economy.

Then we widen the lens to the bigger contradiction. Governments are still planning airport expansions while aviation remains a major source of tourism emissions and while destinations face heatwaves, water stress, wildfire risk, and public services stretched thin. Rather than a neat “growth story”, we’re left with tough questions about limits, liveability, and what sustainable tourism policy should prioritise.

And we finish with a clear set of options: connect aviation policy with tourism strategy, pause expansion where destinations are already saturated, shift demand towards rail travel and domestic tourism, and build credible national plans for aviation decarbonisation. 

Have a listen! 

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Transcript

Welcome And Why Aviation Matters

SPEAKER_01 0:02

Goodgeist. A podcast series on sustainability. Hosted by Damla Eusler and Steve Connor. Brought to you by the DNS Network.

SPEAKER_04 0:22

Hello, hello everyone. You are listening to Good Guys, the message on sustainability, which is brought to you by the DNS Network, the global network of agencies dedicated to making the world a better place. This is Damlo from Mira Agency Istanbul and This is Steve from Crazy Kinsan in Manchester.

SPEAKER_00 0:40

This podcast series explores global sustainability issues, how they communicated, and what creativity can do to make positive change happen.

SPEAKER_04 0:48

So in this episode, we're going to talk to Dennis Alclea, head of the Travel Smart Campaign for Transport and Environment in Brussels, and who we talked to last year about some of the critical economic myths surrounding aviation. So we're following up.

SPEAKER_00 1:05

We are following up. So Transport and Environment, if you don't know and haven't listened to this the uh previous episode, shame on you. Working with the New Economics Foundation have continued their research work on aviation and now published a major report that unpacks the relationship between air travel and tourism and shows that unchecked growth in air tourism could fuel European rental heights for up to 250 euros a year. So some fascinating findings to dive into. So Denise, thank you so much for talking, taking the time to talk to Samber and myself.

SPEAKER_03 1:37

Thank you. Thank you. And very pleased to be back and to uh sharing uh some of this groundbreaking research again with your audience.

SPEAKER_04 1:45

So, Denise, it's so good to have you back with us on the Pelt Podcast. Last time we spoke, you said the thing that always made you smile was the sunshine. We're in a bit of a heat wave at the moment everywhere. Though, so you how are you getting in Brussels?

SPEAKER_03 2:04

Yes, well, I can say what gets me up in the morning now is really to get the cool breeze in the morning. So I'm motivated to get right uh going early and just open up all those windows, and and that helps to to push me throughout the day.

SPEAKER_00 2:20

I know. Do you know? I want to do, I'm interested. London have got a cool spaces network they've just launched, which I think is really interesting. We need to talk about that. Anyway, your new report came out last week, Denise, and it's great to be talking to you about it. It's the deeper examination there. And I urge people to download it and look at the whole thing because there's so much in it. But it's a deeper examination of the economics

Report Headlines On Rent Increases

SPEAKER_00 2:42

of aviation, looks at the really interesting sort of cascade effect of overtourism fueled by cheap flights that's sending housing rents up. So walk us through the headlines from the report.

SPEAKER_03 2:55

Okay, I'm I'm happy to do that. What we have seen, as you mentioned at the start, is that this increase that's taking place, particularly in southern Europe, not only in tourism that's facilitated by arrivals by air, is making a significant contribution to increasing uh rent prices. So, notably in Spain, uh, Portugal, uh, Greece, Italy, but also Ireland. So you mentioned this rise by up to 250 euros per year. That would be annually over the next five years, and that would be following on from a similar increase in the last five years. So, what does this mean? Of course, this varies across countries. So Ireland would be seeing the largest rise. So this would be that 250 per year average, and then you have also relatively uh large rises in Greece, Portugal, and Spain, where the rises would be between about 160 euros and 220 euros annually. So this is a national average and would then be varying uh significantly between different cities, different regions based on the tourism demand, so uh as well as a few other other factors as far as rental uh policies as well, uh, so as to say that we could see larger uh increases in some of those tourism hotspots and then less effects in in other types of regions. And I would say the the new uh groundbreaking element of this research is really to isolate the contributions specifically of air transport. And so, and that is compared to then the overall total rate of tourist arrivals. And this would be varying quite a bit between different countries. So you have Greece and Portugal, clearly, where the majority, so actually 90% of the overnight uh international arrivals uh travel by air. But then you'd see other, you know, continental, more central uh countries, France and the Netherlands, and that figure would be closer to about half. So happy to go into more details, but that's a bit the the kind of start of the picture.

SPEAKER_04 5:12

Not only groundbreaking, but also myth breaking. So this look at how airborne tourism destabilizes local housing markets once again undermines the relentless narrative that airports represent a driving force for economic growth. So, in fact, it appears from the report that it could have the opposite effect, right?

SPEAKER_03 5:36

Yes, and that's exactly one of the objectives of these series of two studies that we've published with the New Economics Foundation, is to dig deeper into some of these industry claims, into some also of these, let's say, myths that are repeated by governments and show that the reality is not so rosy as is indicated. So here we could really say that in so the first report was really looking at the kind of overall economic growth figures, comparing a little bit and looking to see where there are still cases where increasing air traffic can drive some economic growth, especially where there's, let's say, lower connectivity to start, but also then cases where it can be that rising incomes then create more demand for air traffic. So it's not actually creating that economic growth. What we've done here is to dig into below the surface of those national or regional uh averages in terms of what's happening uh with economic growth, and also look into then where is where are these costs and benefits, economic costs and benefits being felt? And is there a fair distribution amongst different regions, amongst different social groups? And I think what we can conclude here is that there is economic growth. However, this economic growth is benefiting some, but at the expense of others. So I think where that comes through most clearly is the with associated with the rise in the rent prices. And that is that we looked as well. So the research looks both at the increase in the house prices and in the rent prices. And what we see there is that the increase in the rent prices will primarily affect lower income households that tend then to be more in the group of renters. Um, and at the same time, their income is not going to be able to keep up at that pace that of the rise in rental costs. And what does that represent? So you have on the one hand house prices that are rising. So property owners are benefiting. They pass on that rise to the renters, and so this ends up being a wealth transfer from the renters to the property owners. So that's one of the primary inequalities, let's say, in the share of costs and benefits. The other interesting look that we've we've taken is at the share of economic value creation in the hospitality sector. So in the accommodation as well as food services. And one of the findings then is that there has been a trend towards larger businesses capturing larger, increasing shares of the tourist spending, for example, that's going into accommodation. So you might have rather multinational hotel chains that are reaping the benefits of increased tourism, whereas you'd ideally want to see a good share and a fair share going into, for example, locally owned businesses. A second example is relating to investment in the economy. So when you have rising property prices, that tends to draw in investment into property. And that has a trade-off, an opportunity cost that means that the investment is going less into other sectors that are economically more productive. And so that could be, for example, transport equipment like electric vehicles or trains, or could be information technologies. And looking, so there's some very interesting data across the different countries. And what is coming through is that indicative figures, let's say, is that Spain and Italy, for example, could lose out on 1 billion euros annually of productive business investment during the next five years. And I think what we're really saying here is that these types of considerations are entirely missing from the present debate. So you'd have some discussion about aviation, air traffic, and airport expansion, growth, economic growth, uh, jobs in the in the industry. You might have discussions

Fairness, Wages, And Who Pays

SPEAKER_03 10:12

in parallel about the tourism sector, but you wouldn't be connecting those two phenomena. And this is what we're arguing for.

SPEAKER_00 10:20

See, I I think that's that bit of the, I want to come back to the fairness piece, Denise, because I think we should drill into that a little bit more. But that is quite profound in this report, that idea. Because I'd always thought that the assumption that investing in airport air travel growth is a bit of an economic myth because actually, certainly in the UK context, you're actually investing in infrastructure that takes money out of the country to other markets, which kind of math. But what your report is starting to show this clear impact that I can totally get it. You might have a region in Southern Europe where they make an investment case for airport growth when a more holistic view of the economic reality of that is that they're potentially damaging other sectors, it's extraordinary. But going back to the fairness piece, there's a very you're you're starting to explore very human impact and quite an ironic one, aren't you? Because, and I might be overstretching a little bit here, but in the areas hardest hit by overtourism, the poorest are the ones hit hardest by this disruption in the housing market. And there's every chance that those are the very same people who are trying to make their ends meet in those local tourism markets, aren't they?

SPEAKER_03 11:39

Absolutely. So, what we have seen is that also you can put side by side the growth in the number of tourists that are coming into the country, and again, facilitated by this expansion of air uh traffic in places like Italy or Spain, also France. And strikingly, these are the very countries that are performing the worst when it comes to salaries in the tourism sector. So essentially, there's a look back at the last 15 years, and these countries, so France, Spain, Italy, haven't managed to increase the real wages of the hospitality workers. And you can see also as a comparison for some, I think it's in Ireland where the average wage in the hospitality sector is around a third of the wages in the broader uh economy as an average. So quite striking in terms of the poor picture presented in uh hospitality sector wages. And so that's again, yeah, as you as you say, it's it's creating this real dilemma where you have local tourism workers that aren't seeing a benefit in their salaries and at the same time they're facing these rising living costs, including the rent price increases. And so this leads the the to the conclusion in the study to say that many communities in these tourism receiving hotspots are actually experiencing a welfare loss from increased airport arrivals, and particularly where there is this saturation, essentially, where you have you know the the number of of tourists that that can be welcomed is has essentially been been reached and and and in terms of also the then the arrivals by by air.

SPEAKER_00 13:32

Made all the more grotesque Damler when they're British tourists, because at least 65% of them will be quite drunk the entire duration of their stay.

SPEAKER_04 13:43

Well, all over is the word we are fighting for almost like 50 years when we talk about the boundaries of the planet and everything. Over is our problem, maybe. And Denise, while these impacts are being felt and people are protesting against over tourism, we are seeing a surge of governments funding airport expansions, aren't we? I mean, all the while aviation is the main source of carbon emissions related to tourism. You must stand back from these findings, Denise, and think this is literally madness.

SPEAKER_03 14:24

Absolutely. I mean, I think what what uh we see is that the aviation sector is responsible for over half of the global tourism uh industry's direct emissions. So that's one element in Europe specifically. So there are some figures showing that on the current path, the emissions from the international tourist arrivals by air would rise over 60% between 2016 and 2030. And that's at a time when really we should be doing all we can to reduce emissions and to avoid temperature increases. And that is reflecting the fact that aviation is the fastest growing source of EU emissions, while other sectors are managing to get on a reduction pathway. So it's really a vicious circle. We see also quite interesting analysis in the study that there the regions that are registering the highest volumes of arrivals, foreign tourist arrivals, with the vast majority landing by air, such as the Balearic Islands in Spain, such as Crete in Greece or Madeira in Portugal. These are regions that are also facing the most intense backlash. So you probably have heard or seen, or or maybe some have even directly experienced or heard heard stories about protests taking place in Barcelona. There was the use of water pistols, you know, to really just express this anger, no? And I think it's on uh uh the the anger and the the difficulties that they're facing with overcrowding and also with resource shortages. And again, it's understandable where, you know, if tourism was making your rent go up, you'd be angry too. Uh and so despite this growing housing crisis, a number of governments are planning to keep expanding airports to bring in even more visitors. A couple of examples that show that the really excessive scale of these plans. So in Spain, there are plans to expand 13 airports across the country. In Barcelona, the passenger rise would be 25% in an already saturated estimation. In Portugal, they're planning to move the Lisbon airport to a new location across the river and increase the passengers from 36 million today to 100 million. And in Dublin, the government is moving fast to remove a long-standing cap on the airport of 32 million passengers and then take this to 40 million. And there's even talk of going up to 60 million down the line. And this would be all while exempting the airport from Ireland's climate legislation. So really astounding. And I think it's also maybe instructive to compare this dynamic with uh what's happening with cruise ships, because you could say, okay, there were also, you know, a lot of tourists arriving by cruise ships. Uh, well, an interesting developments in several European cities that have already imposed restrictions in the last few years on cruise ship passenger arrivals. So there's Venice that banned entirely, but also Barcelona, as well as Nice and Cannes in France, have put limits on the number of arrivals. So I think there's uh you know an insight into what can be done, what what cities are doing, because they also have the the competency uh to be able to put these restrictions on the on the cruise ships. And this is then more complex at the level of airports, where it's generally tends to be the national government that has to take the final decisions.

SPEAKER_00 18:14

Yeah, I do, I find it extraordinary. I mean, it also if you

Airport Expansion Plans Meet Protest

SPEAKER_00 18:18

talk to say the Barcelona City administration, they they totally get how they're in a really stretched and pushed position on over tourism and how the and so it's just incredible to see such big investments in expansion going on, just as cities in particular are having these debates about how much can we actually take it. It's extraordinary. Going back to the climate impacts a little bit on this, Denise, and the other irony that's in the in the mix here is that the some of these regions are seeing really extreme climate impacts now, set to be even worse this year with those kind of Super El Nino impacting. We're on heat wave number three already this year, so it's it's quite extraordinary. And and these make the temperatures for tourists genuinely unbearable, if not dangerous, because of things like wildfires. So it's do you know, is there any indication that the climate impact risk could undermine some of this tourism growth?

SPEAKER_03 19:17

Yes, I think it's a really good question. And I think to to kind of take a step back, it's important to recognize that Europe is the a destination, then as a region that is drawing 50% of global tourism. So definitely the top global destination for tourism. And at the same time, it's the the region that's warming twice as fast as other global regions. So this is really a a kind of you know essential question and and dilemma for Europe to be confronting. So I'd say there there are these couple ways also that that this is playing out. You've seen already, for example, for sightseeing that in France, the Eiffel Tower, the Louvre have already closed early, closed uh on on certain days. So there is uh you know an impact on the the whole infrastructure around the major sites in different countries. You have issues around accommodation and the exposure to to heat. And then you have, I would say, this kind of cluster of issues around uh services and where you know the prime the primary purpose of the services need to be also caring for residents, right? Relating to health. You know, we've seen these these very difficult um health uh uh impacts and and that the the services can be then overstretched if there is then the need to additionally uh deal with even a let's say a larger uh number of visitors during these these periods. So when there are issues of cooling or issues of water, water shortages, this is putting a real stress on these tourism destinations. What I have seen is that the impact on the destinations is a little bit nuanced, which is to say that it's not necessarily decreasing the number of arrivals in these countries or in the specific destinations, but it's perhaps spreading them out a bit more during the year. So I I took a look at the figures for Spain for the past year between April of 2024 and 2025. There were increases in tourism arrivals every month above the previous year. And most months this was of a range of 7 to 12 percent, so quite significant. But the biggest rises were in the spring and the fall. So it's likely then that some families, groups are. Displacing a little bit their their visits to visit these countries than when it's when it's a bit cooler. This was also the case in Greece that saw a 20% increase in spring tourism in 2024 compared with the same period in 2023. So there is shifting of holiday patterns going on. There are also people choosing different destinations or choosing domestic destinations, but it it isn't happening yet on a large scale to be to be able to have a very clear impact on this broader continuing trend.

SPEAKER_04 22:36

So here is the vital question: what can be done? What are the solutions? What does your report have as a roadmap?

SPEAKER_03 22:47

So, what we have done is to lay out a couple of recommendations that we think are really important to take up and to act on in the coming period. At the European level, there is for the first time being developed an EU sustainable tourism strategy that's supposed to be published this fall. So it's a really good moment also for us to bring in some of these new elements into the debate. But of course, um the area of action is also happening at national level. So these are things that will be important at the national level as well for different European countries. So one is going back to what I mentioned, which is to say that until now, these discussions on aviation and on tourism have kind of been happening in parallel. And what we really want to do is connect these two areas and to say that as there are these multiple plans for expansion of airports, also of air traffic, that these uh when there's an assessment of what would be the impact of such increases, that these different impacts relating to tourism really need to be taken into account. So that means property and rent prices, it means then as well, what I mentioned about the distribution of the creation of economic value across different social groups from an equity perspective and across types of businesses as well. The second thing that we recommend is to recognize that as a number of these tourism destinations are facing a rise, a serious and urgent rise of house and rent

Heatwaves Shift Tourism Patterns

SPEAKER_03 24:36

prices, is that there it there is the possibility to help to slow this rise by reducing uh international air arrivals. So amongst the different kinds of levers and policy choices, this is also a policy choice that would have an impact uh on those very dire situations that are being faced across Europe. So this is one element there. And we would say definitely in those regions where there is tourism saturation, that definitely that there's actually a very strong argument to just put the the airport expansion plans on ice. And this would also then be a contribution to help to redirect redirect investment into other productive economic sectors. And I think that comes back to that essential question, which is you know, is is this aviation industry and expansion driving economic growth? Not necessarily. In fact, there are different trade-offs. And so if you if you're looking for alternatives, you can say, okay, well, if if we do actually slow the growth or even downsize a bit in the the aviation sector, that can actually have beneficial impacts elsewhere. And the final element then is really to look at some specific elements of tourism strategy and also the connectivity, the mobility aspects. And that is to say that one of the striking findings of this study is that the arrivals by air tend to be more highly concentrated. So, in fact, in the top three destinations within a country, you'll have a higher concentration of international tourists, most often arriving by air, than of domestic tourism. So, if you want to avoid that extreme concentration and over-tourism, one way is to rebalance both the types of arrivals. So to prioritize rail arrivals. That's also just a different level of kind of capacity and yeah, in terms of uh rail connectivity, which is very much improving with new routes uh announced uh very often these days, and also looking to rebalance as well towards domestic tourism that is then these two elements trying to facilitate a better spread of tourists and also the spending, and to to also look at ways to direct that spending then to locally owned businesses and of course to improving wages in the hospitality sector. And I could also what we'd like to do.

SPEAKER_00 27:14

Sorry, gone, Denise.

SPEAKER_03 27:15

Yes, no, no. I was uh just going to to uh mention that one one way that that uh listeners could uh could follow up is that we have a really nice, for the first time, a 20-minute mini documentary uh on this topic. So you can find that on Transport and Environment's

Policy Fixes And Smarter Travel

SPEAKER_03 27:34

YouTube channel. And we also have for our Travel Smart campaign a LinkedIn channel where we share a lot about the our kind of ongoing recommendations and what what can be done and different types of developments that are relevant for sustainable travel.

SPEAKER_00 27:50

Brilliant, brilliant, brilliant. Yeah, well, let's get watching that YouTube mini documentary. So fascinated today. So, last question, the very, very last final question, because we've we already know that what makes you smile is sunshine and a nice breeze coming through the window. So instead of that, we're gonna flip it and ask about what does get you out of bed in the morning. What's the next plan? What have you got in the pipeline for transport and environment? What where does this research go next? Or are there new topics that you're planning to start exploring?

SPEAKER_03 28:19

Yes, so we're building up some of the different pieces that we feel are missing pieces in some of these debates about the the size of the aviation sector and where aviation needs to go to get on a credible pathway towards the decarbonization. So the next piece that we're going to bring in is a a study looking at how when you do have these national plans, legislation, commitments for decarbonization, that oftentimes, actually, in the majority of the countries, there isn't really a specific plan for the aviation sector. So you might have, you know, a kind of overall goal across a number of sectors, but there's nothing specifically to say to the aviation sector, well, this is the expectation over the next years. You do have that in the UK. So it's uh the the uh carbon uh budget, and there's one then specifically for aviation, so UK in the lead there. And there are also some elements of that also in the Netherlands and in France, but in the majority of countries, this kind of specific sector plan for the next years to show what is in line with a safe climate scenario of a 1.7 degree temperature rise. And this is what we want to bring in to help policymakers to have this kind of tool and also to really bring bring in then a discussion about sensible limits and what needs to be done in the next years to keep us on a trend for sustainable mobility in Europe.

SPEAKER_00 29:58

Brilliant. Well, I think we need to do Damla, we should do the the aviation carbon budget chat when Denise is ready. Because I find it fascinating. I generally find it fascinating.

Where The Research Goes Next

SPEAKER_00 30:10

We had a terrible badge given to that alliance here in the UK, Denise. You probably know it's called Jet Zero rather than net zero. Yes. Like, oh guys, can't why did you do that? It's not okay.

SPEAKER_02 30:24

It sounds catchy, but you know, once you dig dig a little beneath the surface.

SPEAKER_00 30:29

It's ridiculous.

SPEAKER_02 30:30

Maybe a lot of efforts were put into the the name.

SPEAKER_00 30:33

Oh, yeah, no, no. Or it was just in a bar one night and it just came out. I don't know what the reason was, but it's ridiculous. Anyway, Denise, thank you so much. That's been really fascinating and so good to get into all of that. And it also makes me think a lot, and we didn't get into it, but maybe want to pick up again another time is the kind of personal response, personal responsibility of those people sort of taking those trips. It's a really interesting one to have a think about. But Damler, we've run over terribly, and I think it's my fault.

SPEAKER_04 31:03

No, it's not, but we have. So thanks to everyone who has listened to our Goodgeist podcast, brought to you by the Do Not Smile Network of Agencies.

SPEAKER_00 31:13

And make sure you listen to future episodes where we'll be talking to more amazing people about how we can work together to create a more sustainable future. So, Damla, Denise, Caesar.

SPEAKER_03 31:22

Bye. Bye bye, thank you.

SPEAKER_01 31:26

Goodgeist, a podcast series on sustainability, hosted by Damla Ozler and Steve Connor. Brought to you by the DNS Network.