The Midterms that Matter for Israel

What should Israelis and the pro-Israel community be watching ahead of the 2026 U.S. midterms? Josh Kraushaar, editor-in-chief of Jewish Insider and Fox News political analyst, joins Yaakov to break down the key races, the shifting politics of support for Israel in both parties, and what JD Vance's recent rhetoric signals about the future of the U.S.-Israel relationship.

Transcript

SPEAKER_00 0:00

I'm Jakov Katz, and welcome to another episode of the Jewish People's Podcast by JPPI. The 2026 US midterm elections are still a few months away, but the campaigns are already reshaping American politics, and the outcome of some of these primary races could have profound implications, not just for Washington, but for Israel and the future of the U.S.-Israel relationship. To help make sense of what is at stake, I'm joined by Josh Crashauer, editor-in-chief of Jewish Insider and a Fox News political analyst. He's one of Washington's sharpest political observers, and Josh has spent years covering the forces, reshaping both parties, and has a unique understanding of how domestic American politics intersect with foreign policy. We also take a close look at Vice President J.D. Vance and his increasingly prominent role in shaping Middle East policy, his recent rhetoric on Israel in that podcast with Joe Rogan, and whether his comments signal just a tactical disagreement or something maybe more fundamental and a shift in what it looks like for the next generation of Republican leaders, their relationship with Israel. Stay with us. Hey Josh, it's great to have you on the podcast. Thanks so much for joining me.

SPEAKER_01 1:13

Yakov, it's great to be here. A longtime listener, first-time caller. So I'm very excited to be on with you.

SPEAKER_00 1:19

I appreciate it. I'm an avid reader and follower of you on X, Twitter, and uh a reader of Jewish Insider, where you are the the uh head guy, the the editor. And I have been following a lot of what you've been writing in particular, but also others, you know, Gabby Deutsch, for example, and other people have been following the upcoming elections and the midterms that are coming this November. And and and there's a lot to unpack in terms of how this will impact not just Jews in America, but I look at it from the state of Israel's perspective. We have something coming. And I feel to some extent that the Israeli government, the Israeli people don't fully understand what's coming. And and you guys are really tracking all of these different races that are really going to be consequential for the majority of the House and the Senate and what direction the Democratic Party is going in and what direction the Republicans' Party going in. So if you can maybe just kind of start us off, Josh, with like, what are the key races that we should all be aware of that maybe some people are not aware of?

SPEAKER_01 2:25

Yeah. So thank you for having me, Yakow. And let me start with like the big very quickly the big picture of you, and then we'll we'll talk about some of the races that we're watching closely that reflect the division really within the Democratic Party over support for Israel and a real hostility and and beyond, frankly, uh toward towards Israel, including using anti-Semitic tropes and even anti-Semitic rhetoric in some cases to to win elections in Democratic primaries. But look, we we just this past week we saw really what I think is going to be seen in the history books as a pretty uh consequential vote, symbolic for the most part, but um significant at the same time, where 103 House Democrats, that's about half of the Democratic caucus, voted to cut off aid to Israel. Voted with a Republican, the one Republican who is the most, you know, anti-Semitic, anti-Israel, the one, the one outlier who will not be coming back, also, right? He lost the lost the Republican primary, yes. Thomas Massey uh sponsored this amendment to cut off all aid to Israel, and 103 uh Democrats, uh, which is about half of the caucus, voted for it, including, and I think again, the names and the you may the, you know, we don't, it doesn't even matter the names and the individuals, but there were at least 18, I believe, folks who were reliably pro-Israel in the past, who had had been endorsed by APAC, who were moderates, who were, you know, Nancy Pelosi, probably most most notably, but but folks who are close friends of the Jewish community who felt so much pressure from their left in their respective districts that they felt that they at least had to throw away the, you know, use this vote to show I'm I'm I'm okay. I'm not one of the bad guys, you know, I'm not I'm not that pro-Israel, and please don't challenge me in a in a in a primary. And that's a really uh new dynamic, and it's one that is quite uh, you know, I think it should be very significant for the Jewish nation.

SPEAKER_00 4:15

Let me just open a parenthesis here because that's an interesting point that you make. I mean, they knew that this bill, that it wasn't gonna pass. Do you think that some of these folks would not have voted for it if it was actually gonna be on the line and might have actually passed?

SPEAKER_01 4:29

Very possibly, but I but I think that obscures the larger point, which is that you know, you're you're kind of playing with fire. You you kind of set you move the red lines to to different points. And then then in the end, what do you actually stand for as a lawmaker, right? Right. And and that's the I mean, these are folks who, I mean, I know some of them personally. They are frankly pro, I would consider them pro-Israel in some cases. Um, and they just are plain politics because the voters in the party have gone from, you know, general like five years ago, I would I would have said at least there was a pretty sizable share of Democrats who supported Israel. President Joe Biden was a supporter of Israel, called himself a Zionist. That was where at least, you know, the main the mainstream of the party was. In the last two years, that's shifted uh dramatically. Trump's election and Trump's outspoken support for Israel, you know, in a time of great partisanship, has certainly kind of put the nail in the coffin for a lot of uh those Democrats who might not have paid attention to the issue as closely. But look, this is um, this is a huge shift. And what we're seeing, I think the the the going to the your initial question about the races to pay attention to. We just finished in the month of June uh a number of primaries in key states, New York, Colorado, New Jersey. Um these are areas with sizable Jewish constituencies. This is these are these are states that used to only elect pro-Israel Democrats who would campaign with the Jewish community.

SPEAKER_00 5:55

Colorado has a Jewish governor, right?

SPEAKER_01 5:57

Yeah, Jewish governor, Jewish, you know, like the very these are not like we're not talking Montana, we're not talking, you know, Vermont. This is these are like very the heart, the heartland really of the Jewish community in the United States of America. And these districts, uh from Denver to Philadelphia to New York City, um, these are very, very heavily blue districts, very democratic districts, but they voted for candidates aligned with the Democratic Socialists of America, whose platform is as, you know, basically wants to wipe Israel off the map. I mean, read it for yourself. But but this is not just debates over Israel policy. This is this is a radical view that has percolated within the Democratic Party in these deep blue areas, and has been, and I think more importantly, has now been accommodated by the party leadership. They're not, they're not indoor, they clearly have problems with these people, but they understand where the energy in the party is is is growing and they want to accommodate this movement rather than say, hey, we're gonna set a red line. These socialists, these extremists are not welcoming the party. They are welcoming them as part of them. They're trying to, you know, they're trying to bring them in and trying to moderate them. But the reality is, I think we know how that story ends when you try to take on uh people with with with these ideological underpinnings and bring them along with the institutional backing of a of a mainstream party.

SPEAKER_00 7:16

The I mean sometimes it seems, and and you know, we see this also in Israel, but definitely in the United States, is that when there's a primary race, everybody's gotta pull to the to the extremes, right? So you know, you see that when by both sides of the aisle, whether it's Republican or Democrat. Uh is that what we're seeing, or is this really a uh an inflection point or a turning point in the sense that the the party has completely changed? The the DSA now is is is inside, is deeply embedded, not just in the constituents and the voters and the base and deciding, you know, whether we're gonna, like you said, we'll primary you uh as like this threat against sitting uh uh and serving congressmen, but this is actually where it's at today.

SPEAKER_01 8:07

Certainly the energy of the party among young voters. I mean, this is this is a young, progressive in the city dynamic. Uh you asked me about the races that I'm watching most closely. And one thing we've learned is that if you live in a city a major city with a highly progressive population, so we, you know, New York, Philly, Denver, the DSA has a very strong foothold in the Democratic Party or in the in the larger left in those areas. But they also have proven to be toxic in everywhere else, whether it was in a more red area or even in some of these battleground races that um that they're also trying to make inroads in. So when you talk about the races that we're watching closely, that I think may tell a bigger story about where the future of the Democrat where the future of the Democratic Party lies, it's not going to be in these deep blue urban districts, which are very safely Democratic. They're gonna be in the battleground states that are currently also being contested within the Democratic Party. So the you, I'm sure your listeners are very familiar with the Michigan Senate race, uh, which is getting a lot of attention nationally now, which features a moderate Democrat by the name of Haley Stevens, who is a you know, traditional rank and file Democrat. Currently in Congress. Currently in Congress, represents a suburban district, used to be a swing district. She won a you know a bunch of battleground district races. So she's gotten that political medal that that allowed her to be supported by party leadership, strong ties to unions, strong ties to the black community in the state, uh, started out as like an early frontrunner, yet she is vigorously strongly being contested by a guy named Abdul El-Sayed, who not only is running on the far left, but is actively using his opposition to Israel as a opposition to AIPAC and its and its funding and involvement in that race as a as a um argument, as a and I would argue using like tropes that are very um much designed to rally anti-Israel and frankly anti-Semitic voters to the left fold and to vote for him. This is a very close election. Uh, everything everyone I've talked to thinks this could go down to the wire, and it's gonna have dramatic implications.

SPEAKER_00 10:21

And that is in the beginning of August, that primary?

SPEAKER_01 10:24

First Tuesday in August. So that is gonna be a race and the results are gonna be interpreted endlessly. But frankly, the winner is gonna have bragging rights. If Haley Stevens wins, despite the energy and the momentum and all the social media attention that Abdul El Sayyed has been getting, if she nonetheless nonetheless wins with the institutional support and as as the mainstream candidate, it's a strong message that Democrats are gonna send telling their activists, hey, you might be able to win these very far left districts, but in the areas that we need to win races, the mainstream is still alive and well. But if El Sayed wins a statewide race, which is far, you know, far far much, far broader and bigger constituency than any of these other House districts, if he can win a nomination in the state of Michigan, um, that would be a seismic moment that shows uh and then by the way, yeah. And then it's a general, and by the way, it's uh it's not the end of the story, it's also a general.

SPEAKER_00 11:22

Whoever wins goes up against Mike Rogers, right? You know, on the Republican side. And so it's not, it's not it, they're not a shoe-in definitely to the Senate. But but but your your point is different, right, Josh. Your point is this, this, if he wins, this this is a moment for the Democratic Party because it shows this the DSA is making further inroads, it's taking over, it's now Gary Peters right stepping down, vacating his seat, and that's why there's this open race. And here's somebody from the far extreme who says, like you said, I mean, anti-Semitic tropes and whatnot, uh, is able to get the nomination from the party.

SPEAKER_01 12:01

Yeah, and and Stevens has Gary Peters' endorsement. I mean, the institutional backing is overwhelmingly with Haley Stevens. So if El Sayed is able to overcome that, and and frankly, like there is a lot, I mean, he he is facing a financial disadvantage on the television airwaves. So if he nonetheless is able to mobilize the grassroots in a big state and upset Haley Stevens, um, it would show you where the Democratic Party is headed, not just in the deep blue parts of the country, but frankly, in the run-up to the 2028 presidential nominating contest, where the the AOC wing of the party and even beyond uh the AOC uh the now Democrats that are decidedly to the left of AOC, that is the faction of the party that will have a lot of momentum and energy going into that election. Now, I want to bring up the other part of the story though, too, which is also important, because if Al Sayyid wins the nomination, it's it's far from the end of the story. The second part of the story is that he's going up against Mike Rogers, the a very, you know, pop, you know, well-liked Republican moderate from his time in Congress. And um, you know, this this is where like you're double or nothing the bet. You know, the bet this is where you know the the the that the DSA is in, the socialists are in all the way for El Syed, the far left is in anti-Israel folks, in all the way for El Syed. So they're gonna put all their chips and double it on the table in the general. Now, there's a lot of polling and there's a lot of hand-wringing in the Democratic community that says, look, we we think El Said is gonna underperform what a Democrat normally would do in a general election, and he could lose the seat for the Democrats. So if that happened, if Republicans win a seat that Democrats should have in the bag because they nominated El Syed, things could reverse and all of a sudden, so that would give uh uh the Democratic moderates a an I told you so moment. But boy, I don't think it's a guarantee either way. And El Sayyed may underperform, but he still poll show has a chance to actually win a Senate seat, despite all of the baggage he has. And that would be a moment that would be even more dramatic and more problematic.

SPEAKER_00 13:58

How crucial on the heels of what you were just talking about, how how how crucial is the seat in the open seat in Michigan right now? Like what when you're looking at the bigger picture of the breakdown of the potential Senate after 28, after uh, sorry, the November election, what are what are we seeing in in terms of who right now is predicted to retain a majority uh or or get the majority? Either Republicans get it or they don't get it. Um how is that gonna play out? And and that would also inform us more about the importance of the Michigan race.

SPEAKER_01 14:31

Yeah, I mean, the the way to get Democrats' attention is not about ideology. Sadly, it's you know, by saying someone's extreme, they care about winning if if someone's ex ideology is gonna cost them an election. And if Democrats don't win the Michigan Senate race, which is a a seat that they already hold, that the Gary Peters is a Democrat, he's retiring. If they don't hold that seat, they basically have no chance to win the Senate majority back. It's already a challenge. They have to win a lot of state states to get the Senate majority back. But if they lose Michigan, it's all but over. So this is not just uh a factional battle within the Democratic Party. It's not just one race out of many on the Senate map. This could be one of, I mean, this is one of the most important tests, not just in the primary, but in the Democratic's hope, Democratic Party's hopes for putting together a Senate majority. So the consequences are you can't oh you cannot understate the consequences of of this race and what it's gonna mean for the Democratic Party's future and for the Senate majority writ large.

SPEAKER_00 15:28

You mentioned that Haley Stevens is currently outspending, I think, El Siyad in uh on the airwaves, but but I read a story by you that talked about how the anti-Israel wing is getting major uh uh financial fuel from from this like new this donor network. Also, there's packs out there now. Like if we're and and and and I so I there's I want to tell us about that, but I also then want to get into the APAC component here, which has become very toxic, specifically in the race between Stevens and El Sayyad. Like what where's APAC's role or how it's being used as a hammer in and or weapon in all of this?

SPEAKER_01 16:07

So it's important to delineate individual candidates' fundraising and the outside group's fundraising. So when it comes to individual candidates, uh El Sayed is actually outraising Haley Stevens by quite a bit. And not to get too into the weeds, but the pro that when I started covering politics not all not that not that long ago, the notion of someone who was backed by many senators, was backed by unions, was backed by party leadership, the notion that they ever would get outraised by someone who was running as an insurgent was unheard of.

SPEAKER_00 16:38

Right.

SPEAKER_01 16:39

And not only is Haley Stevens being outraised, I mean, she's raising decent money, but she's, you know, the amount of money that Abdul El-Sayed is raising, about $5 million, just under $5 million in the last quarter, is is, you know, really unbelievable. Like it, and and I I haven't porn over, you know, there are a lot of people who kind of pour over all the different donors and all the different contributors. But there's no doubt that in the wake of Zoran Mamdani's victory in New York City, it opened up sort of a a box of people who are anti-Israel and certain communities in this country realize that I can give $100, I can give $1,000 to like-minded candidates, and it actually might make a difference. And we want to be in this fight. So you you have seen writ large, uh, Yaakov, that the anti-Israel donor communities' pocketbooks have been opened up really in the aftermath of the Mamdani victory in New York. He kind of proved you can win. You actually can win a Democratic primary by being anti-Israel. So not only have you seen, we we reported in Jewish Insider, I wrote an analysis, the the the DSA anti-Israel socialist candidates that uh were either were won or were were running in in key races, they raised huge amounts of money, like unheard of amounts of money in the last few months.

SPEAKER_00 17:52

That the energy and the donor Ram Plattner took in 9.1 million dollars. Yeah.

SPEAKER_01 17:57

I mean 9 million dollars, this guy. The the the there's a cut guy in in New Jersey, Adam Hamawi, who uh we reported had ties to uh the the blind sheikh. Right.

SPEAKER_00 18:07

And he himself was the doctor who came to Gaza, right, on a couple of occasions.

SPEAKER_01 18:12

That's right. Virulently, a virulently anti-Israel uh platform, uh easily outraised everyone else in the field and almost raised a million dollars, which is unheard of, again, for a house race. And it was you know, a lot a lot of Arab and Muslim donors that were um in the in the in the report. So the you can see, and then and you also mentioned the the rise of this new super PAC called American Priorities, which um, you know, it basically a lot a lot of enterprising progressive consultants were like, oh, well, now that we can show with Mamdani's victory that you can actually prevail in an elect in a democratic primary, we we want to actually lend our expertise to collect, you know, to basically uh f you know, start an organization to collect these donations and to actually engage and serve as a counterbalance to APAC money in in uh in some of these democratic primaries. And they've had some some that they've actually been quite successful um in that regard. And and it's certainly they've been, and I would add that they it helped money follows message, right? Money follows it's not the money that creates. They see the opportunity, they see where the Democratic Party is headed and they're willing to fund the campaigns that they think.

SPEAKER_00 19:15

And money is, I mean, money is consequential here, right? Like it's it's the the more you have, obviously. I mean, this goes without saying, but maybe everyone doesn't understand. The more money you have, the more ads, the more presents, the more rallies, the more commercials, whatever it is, that's what gets people, right? That's what gets voters.

SPEAKER_01 19:35

Absolutely. You need a critical mass of money to be able to run a credible campaign. Now, the the one with the most money doesn't always win, but but you need to have that level of fundraising to make yourself viable. And for many, many years, and even until fairly recently, Yaqov, these radical candidates, these socialist candidates, these anti-Israel candidates, they were viewed as so exotic, no one, even people who agreed with them, didn't want to write a check because they were not gonna win. These people, these are crazy people, you know, they're not they're not gonna win an election. Why would I write you a $1,000 check if you have no chance of winning? You're too, you're two out there. But now that the the tide has changed within the Democratic Party, the political winds have changed, and now they want to capture that that that momentum.

SPEAKER_00 20:14

So I mean, we know the squad, right? We know Rashida Taleb, we know uh Ilan Omar, we know some of the former members of the squad who've since been, you know, voted out. Um how how how much bigger is this potentially gonna be in the House, let's say, come November? What what are we gonna see in terms of? I mean, you mentioned Hawaii uh for in in New Jersey. He's gonna win, right? He got he won the primary for now, but he's gonna get he's gonna win the election also. Um that group is going to be m m significantly bigger.

SPEAKER_01 20:50

Yeah. Um, you have at least what, six or seven Democrats who won nominations and deep blue seats who are affiliated with the DSA, either endorsed or affiliated with the DSA. So a Malat Kiros, who whose political awakening came when she spoke out, you know, that she was, I guess, fired by her her law firm because she was upset that they that law firms were trying to raise awareness about anti-Semitism and extreme anti-Zionism, and she ended up losing her job because she could, you know, she rate raised, she was upset about them calling awareness of anti-Semitism, and now she's gonna be a congresswoman. Uh Adam Hamawi in New Jersey, uh, there's a guy, Chris Rabb, in in Pennsylvania in the Philadelphia district. Um, you're gonna see um, boy, the New York three, right? Uh or the New York Two, uh, Daria Lisa Avila Chevalier and Claire Valdez. So like those are seats that were held either by pro-Israel or sort of neutral on Israel Democrats, and they're now going to be represented by people who are even to the left of most of the squad, right?

SPEAKER_00 21:44

But Josh, I mean, you know, to some extent, like here's a race I was just personally interested in, right? So uh Chicago, where you had the, the, the mayor of Evanston, a small little suburb where we would drive through to look at, you know, the colors of the leaves changing. In the fall, because they have these beautiful trees there, but um in a beautiful little town. The mayor of Evans and this guy, Daniel Biss, Jewish, right, grandson of Holocaust survivors, with, you know, right around kind of my age. So I'm like thinking like similar upbringing, Jewish schools, Jewish camps, you name it, uh, goes up against Laura Fine, state senator. APAC becomes the issue. Daniel Biss, who has family in Herzalia, Israel, I mean, spent a ton of time here, been here who knows how many times, distances himself from Israel. So he's not DSA, right? It's not the, you know, it's he's not, he's not the squad, and he's not, he's not uh El Sayad or you know, Ilan Omar. But this is a guy who's coming in who should be your best friend, Israel, right? Should be your best friend, and he's not. So there's a lot of those, right? Oh, yeah.

SPEAKER_01 22:51

I mean, look, Rama Manuel, I mean, I let me let me take one step back. Because the the the environment in the Democratic Party has become so hostile to Israel. In fact, in the in a lot of primaries, if you don't call Israel's self-defense against Hamas and Gaza a genocide, you are disqualified from being underconsider but but for voters considering you. Uh in fact, we've seen a lot of moderates, again, that are being pre-s it's not it's Daniel Biss, but I think Biss is the better example is Scott Wiener, who is a high profile. He was trying to run in California. He's in San Francisco, San Francisco, district of the city of San Francisco, very deep blue, Nancy Pelosi's seat. Uh he is the head of the, or was the head of the Jewish caucus in the California state legislature, you know, someone who was pretty to the left, uh Zionist progressive, but someone who was unmistakably pro-Israel. He for a long time was opposing people pressuring him to say what Israel did was a genocide. But then he was getting polling showing that, you know, the progressives in the district were actually gonna vote for someone else if if he continued to kind of hold the line. So he, you know, uh recorded in in what can only be described as a hot like a hostage video, where he came out and flipped his position uh in in the middle of the campaigns, and he now considers uh Israel's self-defense against Hamas as a genocide. He did win the nomination, or he did move into the he finished in first place in the primary, but that did not win him any goodwill from the same people who had been pressuring him in the first place. And the the another hostage-like video, or two hostage-like videos, came out in the last month where he was essentially accosted at a at a gay rights uh rally for for even being, you know, for you know, for for supporting Israel at all and its existence at all. And and frankly, like some of the rhetoric was out and out anti-Semitic. It was, it was not about Israel, it was about him being Jewish. Um so I mean that that's that's the game that Democrats are playing. Like Rama Manuel, very pro-Israel, but even he needs to kind of come to Israel and throw some punches to get his uh credibility uh at least uh, you know, to not lose credibility with with the party as it moves to the left on the issue. You have other Democrats that are, you know, in the in the Congress that may not have um, you know, may have voted in a generally pro-Israel way, but they just want to protect themselves from primaries, and they're trying to figure out how to show that they're more in line with the base. So this is, I mean, I look, I think there are a lot of the the biggest and and more, it's not the squad members and even the newly elected uh squad members that are gonna be consequential. It's gonna be the rank and file Democrats that aren't Jewish, that don't really have any connection to the issue, that are just putting their finger in the wind and trying to survive a primary, and they're gonna end up becoming more hostile as time goes on, and they may even embrace some of these radical positions.

SPEAKER_00 25:28

So I mean, let me ask you, because there are real votes that that that are important to Israel and to the Jewish community, right? I mean, there's the combating anti-Semitism, there's Homeland Security, I mean, there's a lot of issues for Jews in the United States, education, et cetera. And for the state of Israel, like right now, like the NDAA, right? The the National Defense Authorization Act or whatever it's called, where you have now the Israel-America defense cooperation um clauses in there that are important for Israel and the United States to cooperate on emerging technologies, missile defense, uh tunnels, uh counter uh unmanned aerial vehicles, whatever, a lot of that. Part of that 103 Democrats was kind of around that whole issue, because that's coming up. Like there are real votes that you need people to support. And if you have a Democratic majority in the House, which is very highly plausible after the the midterms, um you could you you'll run into some difficulty passing this type of legislation. So, like, what is what does Israel need to do? What or or can or is it is has that ship sailed? Is there is there nothing that can be done anymore?

SPEAKER_01 26:40

Well, look, if you talk to a lot of Jewish leaders in America privately, I think what they would say is it w it takes a new election and it's gonna take a new leader to really kind of at least I think A new Israeli leader. A new Israeli leader. So for for pri you know, I think Netanyahu has become such an easy um attack line, and it's become even among some of the I mean, you saw Ram and using Netanyahu as a punching bag in Israel. Look, I don't think the reality is that the the disconnect now between Israel's and the Israelis' view of their security needs and the Democrats' view of what they want to do to help Israel is so so at odds with each other. I don't think a new prime minister is gonna really change things. But from a PR and image point of view, you look, it would be a first step, and it is what a lot of Jewish leaders think is at least a prerequisite to start getting the relationship a little bit more back off track.

SPEAKER_00 27:26

I I would also say that the the from though it, Josh, let me push, because I mean you know this, I know this, and I think people who understand know this also. Okay, Bibi's gone, he departs the stage, he walks off. The the temperature drops. I agree, right? It's less toxic, it's it's less of a lightning rod. But let's take Gaudi Eisenkarter and Neftali Bennett, their policies on Gaza are not going to be really that different than what Bibi's been doing in Gaza.

SPEAKER_01 27:52

So absolutely. Uh one thing I would underscore, just as a big picture point, is the opposition to Israel is vibes-based. It's not substance-based. So, I mean, in a way, like the image of not having someone who just kind of triggers a whole lot of American progressives, I think helps from a symbolic and PR point of view. It doesn't change the substance. That said, I don't know how much of this is about substance. I mean, we this is where we live in like a post-factual, post-literate world.

SPEAKER_00 28:18

Substance is not relevant anymore.

SPEAKER_01 28:20

I mean, it's all about like what you're seeing in 10 seconds on your on your phone. I mean, I I I thought, Yaakov, that after the the the hostage deal was finally, you know, after the all the hostages came home and then there was sort of a a chapter closed, that that would have been a point for, you know, to that that would have been the point for basically Israel to to kind of build back some of the capital it lost with the Democratic Party and the Liberals. And instead we, you know, re-re-engaged with Iran. And look, I think, I think there are arguments both for and against. I'm not here to litigate that, but you know, from a PR point of view, that there was an opportunity to kind of build back, use that as like a symbolic jumping-off point to build back some of the lost capital during the relationship. And and it was, you know, for a lot of reasons that that never happened. I also would would point out on the US side, I mean, look, I this is the dilemma that a lot of uh pro-Israel and I guess more specifically Jewish groups are dealing with, because plenty of the 103 Democrats who voted to cut some at least symbolically to cut off aid to Israel are also allies on anti-Semitism, are also allies on, you know, even uh other issues like Iron Dome, right? That that may not, you know, that that they're not, you're right. They're not gonna they're they voted on this to get themselves out of a political pickle that republi that frankly Republicans kind of set up for them. But when put you you raised the question at the outset, when push comes to shove, if Israel's actual security was at threat, would they take the same vote? And I think that's very much more of an open question. And and it's not even just about Israel. There are a lot of other areas affecting the American Jewish community, whether it's funding for the synagogue security that that is also handled at a at a federal level, like making sure you have those allies and other fronts that are in areas that are very much near and dear to the Jewish community's interests. That you can't just, I mean, I think AIPAC is in the most difficult situation because they have prided themselves as a bipartisan organization, have a lot of friends. Um the reality is we live in partisan times. You have to pick Ukraine has become a republic, uh, sorry, Ukraine has become a depth, the the same issue, the same forces that bedeviled Ukraine five years ago when uh Republicans, which supported the taking on Putin and as a grip, I mean this is the party whose DNA is it fighting the Cold War aggressively. And all of a sudden, the same dynamics that changed uh democratic public opinion from pro-Israel to anti-Israel, it's what happened to the Republican Party on Ukraine not that long ago. It's the social media, it's it's the it's the 10-second clip. And you know, look, I I think you know that the Republican Party has muddled along. Trump has certainly um not been nearly as anti-Ukraine as as his campaign rhetoric in 2024 suggested. But I mean, I think that's the hope vis-a-vis the Democratic Party in Israel, that that there's some political, political bones to throw to the base, but fundamentally, still most of those lawmakers understand the nature of the importance of the U.S. Israel relationship.

SPEAKER_00 31:02

So let's walk across the aisle for a moment and talk about what's happening on the Republican side. Um, less I I think we see, or I'm uh from what I've seen, less kind of in the House, less in the Senate. But what we what what's most uh striking is is the recent comments, definitely by J.D. Vance, the vice president, in his uh podcast, I think three and a half hours, which is pretty remarkable. Somebody who does this weekly, sit for three and a half hours talking to someone, might be a bit too long, too much for me. He didn't just talk to Joe, he he went to Austin, Texas. He traveled, yeah, yeah. He was in the he was in the studio. So um, so that's quite the commitment. But hey, Joe Rogan has quite the following. With that said, I mean, what is what's happening with fans? What is is so is this also because he's creating there's some serious daylight, lots of there's the accusations that Israel, the government's running campaigns and funding influencers against him and stuff has come out on that. Without getting into the actual details of it, is he all is he doing this to kind of warm up or cozy up with the mega right wing flank of the party ahead of because after the midterms, correct me if I'm wrong, that's kind of when we're gonna start to find out, okay, who's the front runner for the presidential uh in two years?

SPEAKER_01 32:25

Yeah. So let's lay out a few, a few points. Um, number one, Vance, compared to most other Republicans, has a decided, forget about whether he's anti-Israel or anything, any other like use labels that aren't useful. He has had a decidedly less warm view towards the US-Israel relationship through his time in public office than almost any typical Republican. So, I mean, it doesn't mean he's anti-Israel, doesn't mean he's anti-Semitic. All these labels get thrown around, but it means that, you know, he time after time coming from a different place. Coming from a different place. And he and he's he's outlined his his views even as early as before he was on the Republican ticket. Um, number two, I think it's worth underscoring that um his base, who he's appealing to, is a younger group of Republicans. And and and when you look at the issue of Israel, and I'm sure you've cover this so much so often on your on your podcast, but it's a generational issue as much as a partisan issue, in that you know, you're seeing, you know, any Republican over the age of 50 is is unanimously supportive of Israel, almost almost everyone to a person supportive of Israel. But a young, you there there are fractures emerging among people uh under the age of 35, 40, or give, give or take. You see this on the college campuses. You see kind of the the rise of the podcast, the rise of social media also having an impact on the right in different ways. So Vance, I think, from a political perspective, views that his ticket to success in the Republican Party is ingratiating himself with these podcasts with these podcast, uh, these populist, anti-establishment, very, very extreme, I would say, uh, podcast voices. I don't think that's a good political strategy. One of my favorite maxims in covering politics for 20 plus years is that social media is not and is not real life. It doesn't reflect at the reality of how you get votes to win elections. But JD Vance, and he, you know, even Susie Wiles, the chief of staff, in a joking way, said that like JD like believes every conspiracy theory he he sees online. He he is immersed and marinating in that space. And that's just who he is, the fundamental reality of his background. So look, uh, I think the third point is that when you look at the votes in Congress and you look at public opinion polls, um, I think it's important not to overstate that the Republican Party, how it's turned towards. I mean, I think it's still a very supportive of Israel party at the moment. Um, if you look at most public opinion polls, what, 70%, 80%, if not more, of Republicans view Israel favorably. Right. Um, and and you look at the vote in Congress, and outside of Thomas Massey, who sponsored the Massey amendment, every other Republican voted uh in a in a resolution that Republicans were using to kind of split the Democratic Party, they voted uh in unison for Israel and not the cutoff funding. And and they're not an and I cover the, I mean, I I I always like to say that covering local elections is sort of an early warning sign for where the parties are headed or where the party is headed. Uh there aren't many races. There are a couple, but there aren't many races in which um there are divides over Israel or divide, you know, the law the line that J.D. Vance is arguing is not reflected by hardly any Republican candidates who are trying to win seats in Congress, which tells you that this is very much a podcast, you know, this is something that's bubbling up among younger voters and in the podcast space, but it has not at all translated into the into the and for him it's a because you know it's interesting, like after after the 12-day war last year in June of 25, there were already then a lot of reports of how J.D.

SPEAKER_00 35:47

Vance had been really uh opposed to not just Israel's attack, but then famously Donald Trump's decision to send those beautiful, as he called them, B-2 bombers to strike the nuclear facilities. And I actually had the opportunity to speak to uh two people who had gone, two Israeli officials who had spent who went to Washington in the run-up to the the operation, met with a bunch of officials, including J. D. Mance. And their impression walking away from those from that meeting was that he was fully on board and totally supportive of not only Israel's operation, but also later what Donald Trump decided to do. Now, again, what happened now on February 28th with the with the current war that's still ongoing as we speak, right? Without that's something else. But like it it sh to me, I'm wondering, is this real? Is this and you say, yeah, he'd started somewhere else, but what would we what will we see as a candidate by him?

SPEAKER_01 36:47

Well, I I would I would say that A, I think that's very real, that he didn't he did not publicly or privately oppose the the the strike against the Iranian nuclear facilities. I will also say that look, he's vice president of the United States, and vice presidents have to salute the president and follow their follow their position. And that's the awkward position that JD Vance has found himself in vis-a-vis Iran, in that he's trying to like internally fight a certain battle, but publicly he has to kind of stick with where the president is. And that that has changed, by the way, and on any given day, what the president's tweeting or what he's posting or whatever.

SPEAKER_00 37:22

You never know, right?

SPEAKER_01 37:24

I I think the danger, and I will I I kind of outline sort of the where the politics are right now. The power the most powerful, you know, being a party leader, uh, I mean, a lot of support for Israel in the Republican Party, some of it is Jewish Republicans and evangelicals, which is a very core moral, like stuck. I mean, that that is the core of support with within the Republican Party, and it is, it runs deep. But a lot of a lot of Republicans who don't follow foreign policy are also, you know, because Trump is supportive of Israel, that's why they're supportive of Israel. So, I mean, the danger is if Vance wins the Republican nomination in 2028, he essentially takes over the party infrastructure that his views would all of a sudden be the be the views that everyone has to salute to, and and he may use that to kind of reorient the party on foreign policy. And that that's, I think, where why people are nervous. It's not um where the politics are right now, and it's not even what where the young, I mean, I think even young voters are still generally more supportive of Israel than not. The risk is that if Vance ends up being the nominee in 2028, he has a lot of power to just redo, like people overstate the the degree to which we pay attention to policy, no less foreign policy, right? They they follow the the the the cues of their party leader, and Vance being one of the few Republicans that, again, has different views on Israel and doesn't have that same Kishka, he doesn't pass the Kishka's test. Whatever you think of, he doesn't pass the Kishka's test at many, many Republicans, namely Lindsey Graham, but I can name you two dozen Republicans off the top of my head that deeply, deeply have close ties to to the U.S. Israel relationship. Vance does not, and for him to take over the party and for him to have allies that have markedly different views on foreign policy, that is where I think the partisanship could follow and it could switch the Republicans in a way that you know you you saw with the Democratic Party not that long ago.

SPEAKER_00 39:04

That is a, I mean, that's a super important and very interesting point. And and let's just say that um these stories and this news of the Israeli government allegedly paying and funding people to go after him does not help the the issue, right? This is not sound strategy or policy if this is if this is what the Israeli government is in fact doing. Um Josh Crash Hour, I want to really thank you uh for joining us. And and and you know what, allow me, I'm gonna come back to you when we get to uh the midterms because uh you'll give us kind of the the the analysis of what what what has now happened. So I really appreciate this. It was great. Thank you so much. Thanks, Yakov, for a pleasure being on and and and we'll we'll talk soon. Thanks for joining us on today's episode. As always, you can find us where podcasts can be found on Spotify, Apple, YouTube, the website of Times of Israel. We'll be back next week with another episode of the Jewish People's Podcast. In the meantime, have a great weekend. Shabbat Shabbat from Jerusalem.