Retirement For Life

The Hidden Roth Conversion Window - Ep 36

• Christian Cyr, CPA, CFP® • Season 2 • Episode 36

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To get the full RFL experience, watch the episode here at https://youtu.be/1a152r_o8Rg

The ticking tax time bomb in your retirement accounts could cost you hundreds of thousands of dollars. Most Americans approaching retirement don't realize they'll likely face higher tax rates in their 80s than during their working years, thanks to Required Minimum Distributions forcing withdrawals from tax-deferred accounts.

We're currently experiencing what financial experts call the "hidden Roth conversion window" - a perfect storm of historically low tax rates combined with looming tax increases due to skyrocketing national debt. This creates an unprecedented opportunity that won't last forever. For the first time in history, every major credit rating agency has downgraded the U.S. credit rating, and with a $2 trillion deficit that can't realistically be closed through spending cuts alone, tax increases become inevitable.

A typical 62-year-old couple with $1.5 million in retirement accounts could save $635,000 in lifetime taxes through strategic Roth conversions - potentially over $1 million when including benefits to their heirs. The key insight? You don't need to wait until retirement to start converting. Even those still working between ages 60-67 should evaluate whether beginning Roth conversions now makes sense, as the window could close sooner than you think.

Contrary to conventional wisdom, most financial planning software doesn't account for likely future tax increases. When Wharton predicts we could see tax rates increase by approximately 33% from current levels - returning to where they were 40 years ago - the urgency becomes clear. Acting now puts you in control of your retirement tax situation instead of leaving it to government requirements.

Don't miss this rare opportunity to potentially save six or seven figures in lifetime taxes. Whether you already have a Roth conversion plan or haven't considered one yet, now is the time to revisit your strategy with qualified financial professionals who understand both tax planning and retirement planning. Your future self - and your heirs - will thank you.

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Christian Cyr, CPA, CFP®:

If you are in the middle of a Roth conversion, you're going to want to hear this show today because it's going to change, perhaps, your plans for a Roth conversion. If you are 60 to 67 years old and have not started your social security, or maybe don't know what a Roth conversion is, you're going to want to listen and watch the show today because there's three things that are happening right now in Washington, and this country is in a unique position that it's never been in before, and I'm doing a video later today about the hidden Roth conversion window, and that's what this show is about today. I will say before we get started it's great if you're listening to the show, but there's going to be some great graphics that I think you're going to want to watch.

Intro:

Retirement for Life, your passport to a comfortable and confident retirement. The podcast that's equal parts education and entertainment, where we break down the retirement maze with a dash of fun and a heap of wisdom from your host, Christian Sear, CPA, the passionate retirement specialist and president of Sear Financial Wealth Advisors. The independent registered investment advisor specializing in the AIM retirement system.

Christian Cyr, CPA, CFP®:

So, emma, I've been a CPA for gosh 27 years now. I've never seen a circumstance like this in America. Where do we start?

Emma Bean, CFA®:

Yeah, it's a great time to do a Roth conversion, specifically if you're in that hidden window of what we call. You know, really it's from retirement age until RMD age where your income is probably the lowest it's ever been. You know you have no other income. You have a great window to convert, but also right now tax rates are extremely low and they're going to be low for the next few years. So these factors coming together, now is a great time to convert your tax-deferred money.

Christian Cyr, CPA, CFP®:

Potentially everyone's situation is different, but here's a few things that the average let's just let's make a stereotypical person. They are 62 years old. They have three more years left to work. They're going to retire at 65. They have done a good job saving for retirement. They have at least a million dollars in their 401k or their IRA. I talk to people like this on a daily basis. Here are some things they don't realize. They don't realize that we are at relatively all-time low tax rates. Number one they do not realize that 40 years ago and they all remember Ronald Reagan being in office Prior to 1986, income tax rates the average income tax rate was effectively 33% higher. They don't realize that. Here's another thing they don't realize what their tax rate is going to be when they are 80 years old. They have no clue. And they also don't realize that a Roth conversion will very often save them six to seven figures in taxes.

Emma Bean, CFA®:

Yeah, we get a lot of potential clients coming to talk to us every day and it almost seems like the mindset of a lot of those people is I'm either just retired or retiring within the next year or two. I'm about to be done with everything I've planned, I've saved enough to retire and now I'm done. But really there's a lot of things that you can still do to optimize that time before you start your social security, to help eliminate those RMDs later in life and really set yourself up for a low tax retirement.

Christian Cyr, CPA, CFP®:

All right, let me tell you the story about Larry, my good friend. Larry is a next door neighbor.

Christian Cyr, CPA, CFP®:

And up until about a year ago he was just that a neighbor and a friend. And I want to say he's approximately 72 or 73. I'm not sure of his exact age. And he comes to me and he says I'm in trouble, I've been watching your videos, you've been a friend for years. And I said what's wrong, larry? You know, do you need help? Maybe do you need me to cut the grass? No, he says it's taxes. I'm getting nailed with taxes. I have what's called a required minimum distribution. I have this money sitting in my IRA, my 401k from work. I did a great job saving, my wife did a great job saving, and do you know how much I'm paying in taxes? He said to me, and I quote I am in a higher tax bracket now than I was when I was working.

Emma Bean, CFA®:

Yeah, and we see this a lot. I mean, it's almost like it comes out of nowhere. You know these RMDs are coming, but you don't realize what extent it is. If you've done a good job saving and most of your money is tax deferred, you can be stuck in a situation where your entire retirement is about to be taxed and you're going to be in a higher tax bracket than you were even when you were making big money working.

Christian Cyr, CPA, CFP®:

Yeah, but I'm telling you right now what I believe, what I'm staking my career on, is that the effectiveness of Roth conversions will be reduced significantly. Taxes are going to go up and we'll talk about that, but I just want to show something right here. So let's go to what people understand about retirement and taxes. Okay, so this is a picture right here of, I would say, a typical person retiring. This is that 62-year-old couple. They have $1.5 million in their IRA and their 401ks and they are going to retire in three more years, so they still have three more years of work. We go through their plan and, yes, what do you see right here? What happens when they retire?

Emma Bean, CFA®:

I mean their tax rate drops down right away to about 10%.

Christian Cyr, CPA, CFP®:

And so people. They're used to that. People always think, and correctly so when I retire, I will be paying less taxes. Yes, and that's generally true, because they're not making money anymore.

Emma Bean, CFA®:

For a few years.

Christian Cyr, CPA, CFP®:

This is a picture of how 98% of Americans visualize their tax situation in retirement. But it doesn't last, does it? So what's the first thing that happens? Essentially, at some point we start. What.

Emma Bean, CFA®:

Yeah, you start collecting social security and so that amount, you know, maybe it's not as significant as your working income, but it's still something it might raise, bump you up another tax bracket.

Christian Cyr, CPA, CFP®:

Absolutely.

Emma Bean, CFA®:

But then after that you know whether it's age 73 or 75, then that's where the real issue comes in, with required minimum distributions and you're forced to start pulling out all of your tax deferred money and it's treated as income. And that's where people really start to see their tax bracket jump up another level and possibly into a level that they really didn't plan for or didn't think that that would happen to them.

Christian Cyr, CPA, CFP®:

Pay attention If you are 60 to 67 years old and you saved more than a million dollars in your 401k or IRA, this is the picture of what your retirement tax is very likely will look like. And the tax rate is higher at age 85 than it is while you're working. So that's the point.

Emma Bean, CFA®:

Yeah, and you know, something about this is we do have a lot of very educated clients. A lot of our clients watch a lot of YouTube videos and come to us realizing that this is a real problem for them. But they also say, oh, I'll just convert everything in a few years and I'll be okay, I won't have any of these RMDs. But really, when we put together a full plan for them, the plan's a lot different than what they had thought it would be and it really requires us looking at your full situation what tax bracket you're in now, what your social security is going to be, how long the Roth conversion window is really varies by person and it's not always just the most simple convert it all within three years. It requires a full plan of us, you know, detailing each year what your incomes are to look at what the optimal I mean when you're talking about our AIM retirement system.

Christian Cyr, CPA, CFP®:

The reason I trademarked it was because I felt it was complete, and you're absolutely right, you can't put the cart before the horse. There are several other things that we have to do first before we layer the tax planning on top of it. So this picture that we talked about typical, not unusual, situation retirees in a higher tax bracket than they were when they were working. Along comes the tax planning. The Roth conversion is a key piece of this, and Roth conversions can be difficult to understand. I've made hours and hours and hours of videos, haven't we Brooke on Roth conversions, but it can be really just very simplified and crystallized into one common sentence, which would be you know, the government is going to, the government is going to dictate how and when your taxes occur in retirement. A Roth conversion puts you in control of your tax situation when will you be taxed, how much will you be taxed? And so, if you think about this, if you put a team of CPAs, certified financial planners and CFAs in charge of your overall plan, including taxes, chances are they are going to be able to come up with a way that can reduce your taxes compared to how the government wants you to take your taxes. That's a Roth conversion. You're basically taking control of your situation. Take a look at the potential savings. So I come up with a formula that I say if you have a million dollars in your 401k, you can save about a half million dollars in taxes. That's just a rough formula.

Christian Cyr, CPA, CFP®:

Everyone's situation is different. If you have $2 million, you're going to save at least a million dollars in taxes between you and your family. Everyone's situation is different. But over 200 Roth conversions in. That's the general basic formula If you're just looking for a rule of thumb. But this particular 62-year-old couple by doing a Roth conversion, they save how much in taxes? $635,000 in taxes over the rest of their life. That's a lot of money. We're going to talk about $635,000. That's between now at age 62 and when they pass away. But what's the difference between? Because the Roth conversion in this case? Yes, you're saving $635,000 in taxes because you took control of your situation, but why is the total Roth conversion worth a million dollars to this family?

Emma Bean, CFA®:

Yeah, so when you hand down tax deferred money or your 401k IRA money goes to your beneficiaries and they have to liquidate it within 10 years and that's taxed at their income tax rate as well. So the additional savings from your beneficiaries is really just like a cherry on top. You're handing them tax-free money. They can take it out without having to worry about how it will affect their tax return.

Christian Cyr, CPA, CFP®:

Yeah, and if you look at that, do you want to hand your kids a bunch of money that's going to be taxed or do you want to hand your kids a bunch of money that's probably never going to be taxed? It's obvious right Now. Can we go back to that number? 62-year-old couple. Hey, do this Roth conversion. Put yourself in control of taxes. It's worth a million. Want to pay taxes up front?

Emma Bean, CFA®:

Typically, when we walk through the plan and show them the savings, they'll be more convinced. But the second thing is when people say, oh, I won't live that long, I won't be paying RMDs for very long. So that's the thing that we have to come back to people and really say well, you know, it's going to save you money whether you live to 95 or 80. But also you're saving money for your kids too, which is, like I said, a cherry on top.

Christian Cyr, CPA, CFP®:

I think they're skeptical when they hear there's no way I'm going to increase my overall multigenerational net worth by a million dollars. And I think this is the part of financial planning what I call the financial planning void. And I think a lot of CPAs I'm a CPA, I've been a CPA for a long time right, I just said that I'm talking about my brethren here. They're so good at doing a tax return. They are so good at it. But 99% of CPAs if you have those initials after your name you can pretty much rest assured they're going to kill on your tax return. They're going to do it right. They're going to get it down to the last penny and they are going to get it done, hopefully before April 15th yeah, but nobody's.

Emma Bean, CFA®:

CPA is coming out to them and saying hey look, I've got a great idea that over the next 30 years is going to save you a million dollars. It just doesn't happen. I think the biggest complaint is proactive. They're not proactive, yeah, and their main goal is to reduce your taxes.

Emma Bean, CFA®:

now they're trying you know, everything they can do to reduce your taxes in the current year, when we really have a much longer term view, a 30 plus year view of your full plan and we're not just looking at. You know, yes, your taxes may be higher in the next three years, but over the long-term you're going to be saving a huge amount of money.

Christian Cyr, CPA, CFP®:

And it's not a bad thing about CPAs. They're just not comfortable doing long-term financial planning, but they're excellent at doing tax returns. Oppositely, there's software that financial planners use to look on a long-term basis. The problem and we're going to talk about the hidden Roth conversion window in here in a second the problem is that a typical financial planner has never done a tax return for a client. And frankly, the majority of financial planners who are doing well for themselves, don't even do their own tax return.

Emma Bean, CFA®:

Yeah, you need somebody that can combine the two, and really more than just those two things, but combine everything into one plan so that you have the best possible situation and you're saving the most in taxes.

Christian Cyr, CPA, CFP®:

So that's the retirement planning void. I would agree a hundred percent. So when somebody says to me there's no way I'm going to save a million dollars in a Roth conversion, I say, okay, let's bring our CPA from the team in and let me show you what your tax return is. So this right here. Brooke's got this on the screen. This is the same 62-year-old couple that's going to save a million dollars between them and their children over a lifetime. Very interesting, this is when they're age 82. So as a CPA, the CPA can say well, this is what your tax return is going to look like at age 82. So what stands out to you on this tax return at age 82?

Emma Bean, CFA®:

Extremely large distributions $190,000.

Christian Cyr, CPA, CFP®:

Required minimum distributions. Why are they taking $190,000? Do they need $190,000?

Emma Bean, CFA®:

They don't need it. They're not using it to live on.

Christian Cyr, CPA, CFP®:

The majority of that is just required by the government to be taken out and pay taxes. Yeah, so I love it. They'll look at this and say, well, I'm not taking, I don't need $190,000 when I'm age 82. It doesn't matter, you may need it, you may not need it, but you're going to be forced to take it out. And there it is on your tax return. And then what about that social security?

Emma Bean, CFA®:

The other thing too social security. You know a portion of your social security is taxable depending on your income. Additionally, your Medicare premiums go up when your income is high. Those things will forever be higher than they would be if you had no RMDs.

Christian Cyr, CPA, CFP®:

So this is the 62-year-old couple we talked about. They were making about $200,000 a year right now working, and their total income is going to be over $300,000 at age 82. And they're not even working. Okay. So then I bring up hey, this is what the same tax return at age 82 is going to look like if you do a Roth conversion. What do you think the tax savings is? You can see, instead of $330,000 of income, they have $28,000. I don't know what the tax savings there is. I mean, it's obviously thousands and thousands of dollars in tax savingsing and that's just one year. So that's how it all adds up. Here's the problem. It's all going to go away potentially. So we're actually talking about what's happening in Washington. So why don't you talk about? Tell people what I am scared about and why I have dreamt up this word called, or this phrase, the hidden Roth conversion window, and why this potential savings could drastically decrease in the future.

Emma Bean, CFA®:

Yeah Well, we're at the lowest federal tax brackets that we've been at for quite a long time, and that's only guaranteed for a short amount of time. We have a few years where that's guaranteed, and after that, with the federal deficit, we really have a huge gap between our earnings and what we spend. We've already gone through. We have plenty of podcasts talking about how the government's tried to reduce that deficit by decreasing spending, and as much as they try, we're not going to reduce the $2 trillion deficit between those two things. So really an easy solution then is to raise taxes, which is not unheard of. We've been there before. We have just seen 33% higher tax rates not that long ago, and that's ultimately what we think the government will have to do in the future. So that's why we're calling this the hidden-.

Christian Cyr, CPA, CFP®:

Hidden Roth conversion window. I love that phrase. I'm good at coming up with phrases. So, brooke, let me ask you a question. Do you remember that little children's fable called the boy who cried wolf? Yeah, and what happens to this boy is he's always saying oh, something bad's happened to me, something bad's happened to me, and pretty soon people are like well, nothing bad happened, you're just kind of faking it.

Emma Bean, CFA®:

And then, when it really hits the fan.

Christian Cyr, CPA, CFP®:

It's like it's right there. We have been hearing about the United States debt problems for years. Let me tell you what has changed and why it is coming to the forefront Number one. Finally, for the first time ever in the history of the United States of America, every single major credit rating agency is now saying the US debt, the US credit rating, is no longer pristine. We've never, ever had that. You know, 50 years ago it was the most pristine credit in the world.

Emma Bean, CFA®:

Literally Triple A.

Christian Cyr, CPA, CFP®:

Now nobody says that anymore. What else has changed is that we have spent so much money in the last five to seven years. The debt level has now come to a point where even elected officials are starting to hold up bills and policy because they understand that there's a debt problem. Now I want to bring this up on the screen, brooke, if you bring this up, let's be very clear about this. We have a major problem with the debt. There are two ways to solve it, and you think about just simple, simple, brooke. Let me ask you a question. Okay, ready, let's say God bless you. Your household is having financial problems. Okay, there are two things you can do. Okay, just think about you and your husband Gosh. We're not making enough money. There's two things you can do. One is you can spend less.

Emma Bean, CFA®:

Yeah.

Christian Cyr, CPA, CFP®:

Or you can go get a job and make more. Which one? Honestly, and I don't know if there's an answer what do you think would be easier for you guys to do? If I said you have to come up with $1,000 a month, would you say, oh, I'm going to cancel Netflix. Or would you say my husband needs to get a better job?

Emma Bean, CFA®:

Honestly, Probably a better job.

Christian Cyr, CPA, CFP®:

It's easier, right? I mean, we are not in the United States trying to cut out 50 bucks out of the we're trying to cut $2 trillion.

Emma Bean, CFA®:

And there's only so many places you can cut. I mean, you've heard everyone talk about it there's only so much discretionary spending. Do you really want to go cutting people's social security or their health care? It's hard to. You can say yes, we should spend less, but a $2 trillion gap is much larger than the amount that we can realistically cut. It's not going to happen?

Christian Cyr, CPA, CFP®:

It's not going to happen. The richest man in the world, elon Musk, came aboard and said I'm going to save $2 trillion. He said, well, maybe it's only $1 trillion. And now he's not even there anymore, because it's not like you're cutting Netflix. Sure, can you cut Netflix in your household, yes, but can you turn the electricity off? No. You know, medicare is the electricity you can't turn off. Medicaid is the electricity you can't turn it off. Social Security can't go away. It's just not possible.

Christian Cyr, CPA, CFP®:

So therefore, wharton says what's going to happen is we're just going to go back to the way taxes were 40 years ago 33% increase. So here's what the hidden Roth conversion window looks like. The debt is the green thing on the screen. It's going up and it's going up and it's going up. The tax rates have been going down and down, down all time low tax rates. Why are they low? Because we had the tax cuts and job deck, which says tax rates are going to be low until the end of 2025. This is 2025. So what's going to happen at the end of 2025, tax rates are going to go up a little bit, back to the way they were in 2017. Right now, we're using the number one rated financial planning software in the industry and when we say what's the best Roth conversion is saying how often do you see, emma, a Roth conversion suggested by the number one rated financial planning software industry that says let's do a Roth conversion over the next 20 years?

Emma Bean, CFA®:

Almost never.

Christian Cyr, CPA, CFP®:

But it happens.

Emma Bean, CFA®:

Yeah, it does.

Christian Cyr, CPA, CFP®:

It happens, and that's exactly. This picture is exactly what financial advisors are saying hey, you're smart, mr Customer, you want to do a Roth conversion. Mr Customer, let me see what my number one tax planning software says Do a Roth conversion over the next 15 years?

Emma Bean, CFA®:

Yeah, it will propose it, but I think we're smart enough to realize that likely we don't want to rely on those tax rates being the same, because we know about the window.

Christian Cyr, CPA, CFP®:

Exactly, and that's the whole point. And so this is bad advice, very likely bad advice. And so what's really going to happen? And this is where you start to see has the current administration in Washington DC proven anything? I think if they've proven anything, they've proven that if they set their mind to something, they're going to try to get their way.

Christian Cyr, CPA, CFP®:

They're going to damn well do it. Yeah, okay, and right now, as we are recording this, as you are watching this, what are they doing in Washington? What are they trying to do in Washington with these taxes?

Emma Bean, CFA®:

They're trying to extend the previous tax cuts. It's going to happen.

Christian Cyr, CPA, CFP®:

So, first of all, that low tax rate is actually going to last for at least another two to three years. But what else do we know about these tax cuts that are coming? We know that they're going to increase the debt even further, and so what happens is you're going to eventually, as Wharton says, have a 33% increase immediately in effective tax rates. And now here you are doing a Roth conversion when taxes are jacked up that high and what you have is this hidden window of opportunity. That's what the hidden Roth conversion window is.

Emma Bean, CFA®:

That's why we feel we need to talk about it today, because if you miss the window, you know between now and our MD age where, because you're doing a Roth conversion, you've planned it out.

Christian Cyr, CPA, CFP®:

Maybe you have a financial advisor you should ask about this window. You should say to them look gosh, what if tax rates go up 33%, like Wharton says they're going to Now? Am I still doing the right Roth conversion plan? Wouldn't it be better, maybe, to get it over with now? Can I tell you about the 62-year-old couple? Remember I said they had three more years to work. This, as I said at the beginning of the podcast, it's great for people who have not started Social Security, and I said the age ranges of 60 to 67. These are the people who can take advantage of this window. Now that 62-year-old couple were they retired right now or are they still working? They're going to work for three more years. Contrary to what popular opinion is, it actually might make sense to start doing this now, even if you are working.

Emma Bean, CFA®:

Given the tax brackets, we have more room to work, and so even if you do have some income from work whether it's one or both of you you still might have some additional room to fill up and convert that amount.

Christian Cyr, CPA, CFP®:

Absolutely Like without going to the next tax bracket. And you know okay, yeah, you're in a tax bracket right now and you're making $200,000 a year. You're already paying taxes To your point. You could still fit some Roth conversion into that window.

Emma Bean, CFA®:

And again, that's why it's important to have a full plan, because then you can play what-if scenarios. What if I start now, even though I'm still working? Or does it make more sense to wait until three years from now? So it's important to look at what your income is and really what the best conversion strategy is.

Christian Cyr, CPA, CFP®:

All right. So what have we learned today? If you have a Roth conversion plan, revisit it. Ask your advisor or your CPA about the hidden Roth conversion window. Will taxes go up in the future? Will it reduce the effectiveness of my Roth conversion plan? Will it reduce the effectiveness of my Roth conversion plan? What if you don't have a Roth conversion and you don't have any plans, but you have done a good job savings? Okay, say you got a million dollars and you're 62 and you got a million dollars in your 401k. What would you advise somebody to look into? How would they approach it?

Emma Bean, CFA®:

It's good to find an advisor that can gather all of your information and make a full plan for you Make a plan, just so that you don't miss that window. If you're waiting, even a year or two years, you're missing out on one or two valuable years where you could be converting and avoiding a lot of those RMDs.

Christian Cyr, CPA, CFP®:

It's not for everybody. We have clients that are in a very specific situation where they will come to us and they'll say gosh, I saw that video you did on Roth conversions. It sounds really sexy and it's not right for everybody. Some people are not in a position where it's going to say them anything at all.

Emma Bean, CFA®:

Right, but we always, regardless of who it is, what their situation is. We'll revisit it fairly often to see if it does make sense at this point.

Christian Cyr, CPA, CFP®:

We're planning on taxes going up. When you ask the typical American, do you think taxes are going to go down, do you think taxes are going to stay the same or do you think they're going to go up? Pretty much everyone says the same thing they're going to go up. Take advantage of the Roth conversion window. Take a look at it. Make sure you plan for it. If you have a plan already for a conversion, revisit it. If you are 60 to 67 and you have not looked at a Roth conversion yet, I highly recommend you look at one, even if you are still working. Emma, this was a great cast today. Thank you so much. And, brooke, do you feel like it was a good cast?

Emma Bean, CFA®:

I do yeah.

Christian Cyr, CPA, CFP®:

Did I do a great job you did. How would you rate my performance on a scale of 1 to 10?

Emma Bean, CFA®:

Probably a 7, 8. You know how I feel about that.

Christian Cyr, CPA, CFP®:

You can always improve. All right, everyone, we'll see you in the next one. Thanks for listening to the Retirement for Life podcast Take care Investment advisory services provided by Sear Financial Inc.

Outro:

SEC-registered investment advisor. All content on this podcast is for information purposes only and should not be considered investment, legal or tax advice. Material presented is believed to be from reliable sources and no representations are made by our firm as to another party's informational accuracy or completeness.

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Christian J. Cyr, CPA, CFP®

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Andrea Brannon

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Emma Bean, CFA

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