Trump's Iran Decision Looms. What's the Solution?

President Trump is about to make the most important decision of his presidency. Here's how it could play out. 

Transcript

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I'm Dan Joseph. This is Bite Size Politics. So there are a couple of things I need to catch up on because there's been a lot of news. And since I haven't been doing the podcast, I've been doing it about once a week while I look for a job. There's more to cover. But I'll try my best to keep it bite-sized for you because that's what this is. That's what this podcast is for, to give you an idea. of what's going on in American politics without having to spend your entire day reading about it or watching the news, because who wants to do that, right? Who wants that? You've got a life to live, much more than I do. So Iran is obviously the first topic. This is, of course, a huge deal as it impacts the entire world. Of course, last week, Israel attacked Iran. They were going after strategic targets, primarily Iran's nuclear facilities. It has long been assumed that Iran is enriching uranium so they can build a nuclear weapon. It's imperative that Iran not acquire a nuke. That's really something there's consensus on, not just because they could bomb their neighbors as they have threatened to do to Israel on multiple occasions to wipe them off the map, but also because if Iran gets a nuke, that will be the beginning of an arms race in the Middle East. And Saudi Arabia will start trying to acquire one. Other nations in the region will want to protect themselves from Iran. It changes the entire geopolitical situation in the Middle East, and therefore for us. And as you know, that's not like the most stable region in the world to begin with. So no one should want Iran to get a nuke. So Israel attacked, and now the question is, will the United States actively help Israel... in the war effort, primarily by using one of the bunker buster bombs that only the United States has. Only the United States has the plane to carry it. And will they bomb Iran's most remote nuclear facility, which is located deep in the mountains, a place called Fordow. So now President Trump has a big choice to make, right? He could choose to help Israel and bomb Iran, or he can sit this one out, leave it to Israel, maybe simply Give them the bunker buster and the plane to carry it. Or Trump believes that he might be able to negotiate an end to the war with Iran. I think he believes this. He thinks that maybe he can convince Iran to give up their entire nuclear program. Can he? I don't know. I don't know if the Iranians want to negotiate. But that would be great, right? If Trump can negotiate a complete end to Iran's nuclear ambitions... And to enriching uranium with inspectors and third party groups there to ensure they do so. That would be a huge achievement. That would be a huge win for Trump. That's the optimal scenario for everybody, really, for everyone involved. But Trump has other problems because Trump has political problems at home where a sizable chunk of his base, the MAGA people, they are insistent. that Trump not involve the United States in any military action in any situation short of an attack on the American mainland, which will never happen, especially not in the Middle East. And this battle between isolationism and interventionism has split Trump's base. So that's an incentive for him to solve this through negotiations as well. And then there's the question of regime change. And look, the United States is not going to be putting boots on the ground. Iran to kick out the mullahs. That's not going to happen. The mullahs are the theocrats and the religious extremists who rule Iran. If regime change happens organically and the people of Iran rise up and topple their government, that would be great. But there's no way. There's no way troops on the ground or anything like that is going to happen. Don't believe people who say it will. We learned a lesson in the Iraq war. Although I will say Iran is different. from Iraq or Afghanistan. It's not tribal. You might actually be able to bring the country back to where it was before the Ayatollahs, where they were civilized, educated people, an educated society. It really wasn't a third world place. So the best case scenario is that negotiations work. Otherwise, the U.S. has to help Israel in some way if they can't do this themselves. Whether that means attacking the nuclear facilities, of course, that would enter the U.S. into the war. And it would probably spark retaliation from Iran. Iran could attack our military bases, right? We don't want to get into a military conflict in the Middle East where we have to go tit for tat. We don't want to do that anywhere. So I don't see why the United States doesn't just simply give the bunker buster and a plane to Israel and let them then conduct the mission. And I think Trump is struggling with this question. This is really the biggest, most consequential decision he has had to make as president. This is the hard part of the job. And Trump knows that a wartime president gets a lot of credit if the mission is successful. But if it goes wrong, it can destroy your presidency, as George W. Bush learned the hard way. The other story I'm watching this week was the Supreme Court's decision that let stand a Tennessee law that banned puberty blockers and hormone therapy for minors who are seeking to transition to match their age. gender identity. And they said, well, they said a bunch of things in their rulings. The ruling was six to three with the conservatives on one side and the three liberal justices on the other. And of course, LGBTQ activists said this was a huge setback for trans rights because they ruled that states can make their own laws concerning transitioning. But Robert said this. Here's what here's what Robert says. This case carries with it the weight of fierce scientific and policy debates about the safety, efficacy and propriety of That's what he wrote. He wrote more, though. So Robert makes an important statement. The fact that in terms of care for children with gender dysphoria, the science is anything but settled. There are studies that say transitioning is necessary for some kids. There are studies that say it's not. that say most kids with gender dysphoria simply turn out to be gay most of the time. Countries in Europe, including England and Germany, have scaled back their transition programs and laws. So even the progressive European countries are rethinking this. Everybody is. The pro-transitioning argument has been that there is a higher risk of suicide for young people who don't have access to the ability to transition. The stats don't bear that out at this point. Maybe it'll be true at some point. But Roberts is essentially saying, slow down. And he leaves it up to the states. Then the majority left it up to Tennessee to decide whether they're going to ban puberty blockers, whether they're going to ban hormone therapy. But a lot has changed in this issue since the election. Conservatives don't like the idea of young kids and teenagers getting hormone therapy and therapy and puberty blockers and making that decision for themselves at such a young age. In fact, I'd say this is about a 70-30 issue against letting kids decide when they're going to transition. I think if you ask most independents what they think, they will tell you the same thing. They don't think minors should be able to do something that could potentially alter their lives in such a way. And look, I know people whose kids are transitioning and relatives are transitioning. I have friends from college. I have met women who have embraced this idea of gender fluidity But most Americans simply aren't ready for widespread mainstream acceptance of children transitioning or widespread acceptance of the principle of the LGBTQ community that says we need to normalize transgenderism and ignore biology. And this plays out in the battle over women's sports, Dylan Mulvaney, locker rooms. It plays out in entertainment we consume. But I do think the backlash to Dylan Mulvaney and the 2024 election, where the issue certainly played at least a minor role, shows you that this effort has so far backfired on the LGBTQ activists. They thought transgender rights was the next gay marriage and they went all in. not realizing that they were working with unsettled science and demanding that we all change our fundamental definition of men and women. If they thought that was going to be an easy sell to the American people, they really miscalculated. That's about it for now. I'm Dan Joseph. This is Bite Size Politics. I'm currently working on building a real R-E-E-L, which is a sort of audition tape to send to TV news stations around the country. My educational background is in that field. I haven't been able to use the skill because my career has taken me in these weird paths, man on the street, political commentator, talk radio host, careers where there's not much demand for them. But broadcast journalism is really where my specialty lies. So I'm hoping this reel works out. I really do. I'll see you next week.