Your Work Friends | Fresh Insights on the Now and Next of Work

New Week, New Headlines: The Job Market Is Shrinking, Will the Modern Worker Act Kill Full-Time Work, and Is Religion at Work Getting a Green Light?

Francesca Ranieri Season 2 Episode 78

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This week, we’re breaking down three headlines that could reshape the American workplace:

  1. 📉 The job market cool-down continues, with new JOLTS data showing longer unemployment durations and more people dropping out of the job hunt altogether.
  2. ⚖️ The Modern Worker Employment Act could redefine what it means to be an “employee”—and put traditional full-time roles at risk.
  3. ✝️ A new Trump-era memo gives federal workers the green light to evangelize at work. Is this the start of a new wave of religious expression in corporate spaces?

From layoffs to labor laws to religion in the breakroom—we’ve got thoughts. If you care about where work is headed, this one's for you.

#JobMarket2025 #Layoffs #ModernWorkerAct #GigEconomy #WorkplaceReligion #EmploymentLaw #FutureOfWork #HRNews #LaborMarket #YourWorkFriends #WorkplaceTrends

Disclaimer: This podcast is for informational purposes only and should not be considered professional advice. We are not responsible for any losses, damages, or liabilities that may arise from the use of this podcast. The views expressed in this podcast may not be those of the host or the management.

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Speaker 1:

A whole shit ton of people are about to lose their health insurance. A whole shit ton of people are about to lose their bonus structures.

Speaker 2:

It will happen, it 100% will happen. Welcome to your work, friends, where we break down the now and next of work so you stay ahead. I'm Mel Platt.

Speaker 1:

And I am Francesca Ranieri. What's up over there? Listen, you know what I did today. I treated myself to a Diet Coke.

Speaker 2:

Oh my God. I just saw a meme that said a Diet Coke is like a fridge cigarette. It made me crack up because I was like there is nothing like an ice cold Diet Coke on a hot summer day. It's just delicious.

Speaker 1:

It is delicious. It was that or a cigarette, so I went for the Diet Coke.

Speaker 2:

I've never smoked a cigarette.

Speaker 1:

You've never smoked a cigarette in your life.

Speaker 2:

Ever no, not once. I never even tried it. I thought it was so gross. I hate the smell, I just never did.

Speaker 1:

But I still got the reference. I am not mad about it.

Speaker 2:

Ah, I love it. Listen, we are back with New Week New Headlines. Friends, we took a little mini hiatus. Please forgive us. New Week, new Headlines is one of our favorite things to do because, let's just face it, there's a lot of shit to talk about and we like to talk about it. So today we are covering a few different topics. Francesca, what are you talking about? Okay, I?

Speaker 1:

am talking about the job market cool down that continues to deepen. I want to talk about what's coming out of the latest Jolt's report and the three big numbers. I'm looking at that. I hate to say it, folks, if you think this job market is crazy, town USA, it is, and I have the numbers to prove it. I also want to talk about this latest Trump memo that came out about. Evangelizing at workplace is now fair game if you're a federal employee and what this kind of Christian religion creep might look like if it comes to corporate America. What are you talking about?

Speaker 2:

Mel and creep might look like if it comes to corporate America. What are you talking about, mel? I am talking about the House Bill, the Modern Worker Employment Act, and what that might mean for folks and how that might change how we define what it means to be an employee in America.

Speaker 1:

Yikes. The Jolt Report was released this week and it showcases that the job market cooldown is deepening, with more Americans filing claims and longer unemployment durations. Headlines are focusing on things like falling job openings, but the story underneath it, in terms of long-term unemployment and also how long it's taking to find jobs, I think is the real story here. Mel, as you're talking to people, what are you hearing about the job market right now?

Speaker 2:

One. I do career coaching for individuals and so I hear that all the time by people who are trying to pivot, people who've been impacted by layoffs. What I'm hearing is it is taking them incredibly long amounts of time, not just to get the interview, just to get the job Six months, some folks up to a year or more and these are folks who just based on credentials they are hot talent they would be picked up in a second in normal job markets. And, having worked in talent acquisition, I've seen every market right. I survived 2008,. Folks, we talked about the frozen job market last year. In talent acquisition, I've seen every market right. I survived 2008,. Folks, we talked about the frozen job market last year in the fall, but I think that frozen job market just getting icier and icier.

Speaker 1:

Yeah, the data backs that up. A couple of things to look at. Which is initial and continued claims are climbing, which is a sign of weakening momentum. Weekly initial unemployment claims slipped to 217,000 in the week ending July 19th, which is healthy, but it's continuing to get worse, rose slightly to about 1.96 million, suggesting consistent layoffs or difficulty in rehiring, largely reported by the Wall Street Journal. That's number one.

Speaker 1:

Number two people are unemployed for longer than they were a year ago. The average duration of unemployment in June was about 23 weeks, that's about 5.3 months. That's up from 21.8 weeks in May. Keep in mind that these are lagging indicators and I know everyone has been saying, okay, the job market's still healthy, unemployment's still relatively low. But as we keep going from April to May to june and now july, these numbers keep getting worse. They're lagging indicators and my gut is they're going to continue to keep getting pulled down because, to your very good point, it's harder and harder to land a job. That amount of time is just getting longer.

Speaker 1:

And the other last thing I'm looking at too is long-term unemployment is rising. In June, the number of people jobless for 27 weeks or more rose to 1.6 million, accounting for 23.3 of all unemployed. Meanwhile, the marginally attached population those who want to work but haven't looked in the past year increased to 1.8 million. So what this is telling you is more people are getting laid off. It's taking longer to find a job. People that are considered long-term unemployed and or have just given up on finding a job because they've been out of work so long is getting larger.

Speaker 2:

If you've been impacted by a RIFF. You can get burnt out really quickly and it becomes defeating. It's a full-time job itself to find a job. You and I talk about this all the time. That's what we hear from our friend people who reach out to us from the pod. It's a lot of work. I think this trend is going to continue as organizations continue to evaluate what the future of their business looks like and how their org is structured to support it, and with technology like AI, I think we're going to see a lot of this going forward.

Speaker 1:

I think we're going to see a lot of it. Listen, we're in an environment where, for instance, Wall Street Journal just published an article with CEOs celebrating the amount of layoffs they're doing right now. The name of the game is efficiency and when you're in this type of market, if you're gainfully employed, what I would try to do if I were you is don't have just six months of cushion, have 12 months of cushion if you can, just to give yourself that float. The other thing I would consider to your very good point about organizations making different decisions, we're seeing a pretty significant uptick in contracted gig work. If you have been unemployed for a long time, if you haven't considered fractional or gig or contract, I would look into that and I think gig work's here to stay. I know we'll talk about that a little bit later on, but this is something where I think we're at the doors of. Gig work is the main work.

Speaker 2:

We've been talking about that for over a year now. You said it multiple times that we're going to get down to these skeleton crews and I think that's what we're starting to see, and if you haven't started to think about your brand, what that might look like, now's the time to start thinking about that. And it's not impossible. Phone a friend, phone us if you're in that position, like we'd be happy to talk with you. So reach out to us if that's something you're struggling with right now.

Speaker 1:

It's not only possible, it's actually fun. It's fun, it is fun.

Speaker 2:

Yeah, and listen. The current market doesn't determine your value. So for anyone who's in that position, please know we've been there, we get it, but it doesn't reflect your capability or your value. These are things outside of your control. So, when you think about that sphere of control, what's happening right now in the market is so unique and we've seen it all, but we are in a unique time, so don't let what's outside of your control determine your self-worth in this moment. That's my soapbox.

Speaker 1:

What's happening with the employee? Okay, four, five, six, seven, eight, nine.

Speaker 2:

So this is Bill HR 1319, the Modern Worker Employment Act. This was proposed back in February. We touched on it lightly when it first got proposed, but not enough had come out yet. So what is this bill discussing? Are you an employee or are you a gig worker? Are you independent? So this bill could redefine what an employee means.

Speaker 2:

In America as we know it, this is a fight over freedom, benefits and the fine print that's going to decide who gets protected at work and what you get from work. This is a Republican-sponsored bill. It aims to reshape how the federal government is defining employee versus an independent contractor. That line determines whether you get benefits, overtime pay, labor protections and the legal right to unionize today. Here's why this matters. Under current federal law, whether someone counts as an employee is based on a very broad economic realities test that includes things like whether you wear a uniform or not, whether you follow company rules, whether you use company tools like a laptop, whether you work full time for just one company. This bill is going to throw out most of what we use today for those realities tests and instead it's proposing a narrower standard that focuses on just two things. One, whether the company controls how you do the work, not just what the final result is. And two, whether you operate your own business and take on economic risk.

Speaker 2:

Okay, under this definition, if you're working full-time but you have flexibility in how you get the work done, you could potentially be classified as an independent contractor, not an employee. What this means in practice? Just to give you an example, let's say you're a salaried employee today. You work for a big org. You're salaried, you're a manager, you're fine, but you work remotely. You use your own equipment. Maybe you make your own schedule how the work gets done. Under this new bill, your employer could argue that you're not truly an employee anymore and you get reclassified. You lose employer-provided health insurance, you lose paid sick or family leave, you lose unemployment insurance, you lose protection under federal wage and hour laws and you lose the right to organize under the National Labor Relations Act. What do you think about that, francesca?

Speaker 1:

Let me tell you what my reaction to this is. It is very expensive for organizations to carry employees because they have to pay for things like yes, your insurance, yes your bonuses, yes, any litigation. That happens because you are unionizing, plus all the people they need to employ to make sure that all of your protections are there as well and all of that gets operationalized. It is very expensive for organizations to carry employees, and if you think organizations will not take advantage of being able to reclassify human workers so they don't have to bear that expense, I'm telling you right now, in this ecosystem, in this world of efficiency I'm not trying to be dramatic You're wrong. You're wrong. We have seen this over and over again with offshoring, with layoffs, with AI. Where there is money to be saved, organizations will say it is their fiduciary responsibility to their shareholders and to the company to do that, which basically means a whole shit ton of people are about to lose their health insurance. A whole shit ton of people are about to lose their bonus structures. It will happen.

Speaker 2:

It 100% will happen. We just we just talked about it and just covered I, we, this is where things are headed, folks, which is we're not saying this to scare you, we're saying this so you're prepared, and so these are things that you need to look out for. So I just want to give a little bit of information if you're curious. This bill, as I mentioned, was proposed back in February. However, it just passed out of the committee, the House Education and Workforce Committee, july 23rd, so last week. Right now it's waiting for a vote on the House floor. So it's not law yet, but with a Republican it's a Republican sponsored bill and with Republican control of both the House and the Senate, it's likely going to gain real momentum and it could advance quicker than you think.

Speaker 2:

Okay, what happens if this passes? Things you need to be aware of friend to friend National impact it's going to apply to all states changing how federal labor laws are enforced under the Fair Labor Standards Act and the National Labor Relations Act. As I mentioned, it could also override state rules. California we love California. There are huge workers. Right State love them. New Jersey, california's AB5 test, new Jersey's ABC test those are more protective of workers today. This could actually override that and typically when you see federal law passed, usually states will make up for it, right? That's why you hear people saying, oh, that state does this. You always hear about California. But this could override that and then the worker classifications could drastically shift. Businesses may review their entire workforce structure and they will. As you just said, francesca, they will, they're going to take a look and they're going to legally see who they can reclassify. Some of the industries that they anticipate could be impacted immediately media, healthcare, tech, trucking, education, contractor versus employees already contested in these industries pretty heavily. So these are likely industries that are going to be impacted first. If you work in them, you might want to start thinking about what's next, what happens if this passes? Gig workers you're going to be okay. It's not really doing much. It's redefining full-time jobs. It's more freelance at scale.

Speaker 2:

We've been talking about this for over two years now. That's what's going to happen here. One of the positives and you and I we've talked about this a million times this starts the conversation of what needs to get out of being tied to your workplace package, things like healthcare. That conversation needs to happen. This is why people care about things like universal health care, because you shouldn't lose health care. Health care should be a human right. I'm sorry, that's my stance. I'm going to share my POV. You want to disagree with me? Totally fine. But this health care, this is where health care as a human right comes into play, because a lot of people here might lose health care as a result of this Friend to friend.

Speaker 2:

This might sound like, oh, nothing might change with your job or how your job is categorized, but nobody is immune from recategorization here. If this passes, if you're full time, working remotely, making your own schedule, you could be impacted, so pay attention to that. I don't know the shift work's going to be restructured in a few years, maybe sooner. Our jobs are posted, what companies expect, what protections come with your paycheck? That's worth paying attention to, so keep your eyes open and your ears open, all right.

Speaker 2:

Stage Stage advice hey, call us if you want to chat about it.

Speaker 1:

Okay, so this week the Trump administration released a memo saying that evangelizing at work is now fair game. If you were a federal employee, have you heard this? No, I have not. It's basically signaling a pretty seismic shift in how personal beliefs, especially religion and I want everyone to key on this, especially religion show up at work, even if you're not in the government. This could really easily ripple across corporate norms and spark some pretty fresh tensions around what's appropriate in the workplace. And there are three things about this memo again, even though it's just targeting federal employees that really struck me, if you will. One is the memo loosens the rules. A new memo, the memo from the Office of Special Counsel, says federal employees can now encourage co-workers to rethink their religious beliefs at work, even in shared spaces like break rooms or team meetings, so long as they're off the clock and not being disruptive Actions.

Speaker 2:

I'm a fan of religious freedom. What our country was founded on right. I am all for people having religious freedom, but work is so stressful as it is. I just think there are things that are personal that you don't need to bring into the workplace. What is the purpose of this exactly?

Speaker 1:

Yeah To your point. The second piece for me, which is it's drawing a line between sharing your faith and pressuring others. But many legal experts say that line is murky and there's a real concern that it could open the door to coercive or even exclusionary behavior. Here's my question with this. Here's an example. I was born and raised Catholic. I don't go to church anymore. I don't really talk about religion anymore. I've gone a little woo and I believe in the universe. That's my thing, right. But what happens when my boss is a born-again Christian and, in the break room, as I'm getting coffee, wants to talk to me about family values?

Speaker 2:

Yeah, is this open for all religions? And, like you, I think it gets really murky. Just last week there was an article that came out about a woman who shared that her doctor refused to give her prenatal care because she was a single mother and he didn't agree as part of his religion to which, by the way, doctors take an oath that they're supposed to help everybody. So how, I don't know. I just think where's the line? And that can get really tricky really fast, because what if you're super religious and your religion, again, doesn't agree with single mothers? So does that impact someone's performance? Does that impact the way they get promoted? Does that impact, like, where's the line? And you can't tell me? It's just oh, you know they're going to turn it off after they leave lunch in the break room. No, that carries through to everything. I just think it should remain separate.

Speaker 1:

Yeah, it doesn't feel like this is just about free speech or this is about opening up for all religion.

Speaker 1:

It really feels like it's a broader push for bringing honestly Christian values into public institutions. We're seeing it in K-12 education, we're seeing it now in the federal workforce and if this gets upheld, it could really embolden similar shifts in corporate and nonprofit workspaces as well. And again, I think it's just something to consider. Especially if you're in an organization, I would expect layoffs, especially around what counts as evangelizing versus harassment. That is going to be a really hard thing to draw a line about, much like pornography. It's going to be one of those. You know it when you see it. I also think there are some power dynamics here that can absolutely be in the mix. And then I think corporate America is really going to need to clarify their own policies around religious expression to avoid some pretty major PR backlash. There's one thing about what this administration is pushing through. There's another thing around what most Americans really are looking for, which is freedom of religion. So it's interesting With everything we've talked about today.

Speaker 2:

It's going to come down to organizations, private businesses, etc. Making decisions like what is your social responsibility here, just in terms of caring for people as well as your business? I don't know. I think we're gonna.

Speaker 1:

It's gonna come back on the organizations to make their decisions here and how they run their business yeah, one of the things I know in our prediction show at the top of january one of the things that we asked what do you think this is going to be? And one of the things I know in our prediction show at the top of January, one of the things that we asked what do you think this is going to be? And one of the things I said about this year was it is going to become very clear what organizations do and don't stand for. Or you can evangelize your one religion that you want in your organization. If you really want to. You can lay off your employees, no problem. In fact, it's going to be glorified Now.

Speaker 1:

It is going to become very clear what your organization stands for and what it doesn't. It really behooves organizations to get very clear about who they are, what they stand for and how. That lens is going to guide a lot of these decisions, because it's going to be way too easy to just say, cut it and we're just following governmental rules. It's going to be way too easy to do that. Stand up, who are you?

Speaker 2:

Yeah, who are you and have the guts to show who you are, who you are. This episode was produced, edited and all things by us myself, mel Plett and Francesca Ranieri. Our music is by Pink Zebra, and if you loved this conversation and you want to contribute your thoughts with us, please do. You can visit us at yourworkfriendscom, but you can also join us over on LinkedIn. We have a LinkedIn community page and we have the TikToks and Instagrams, so please join us in the socials. And if you like this and you've benefited from this episode and you think someone else can benefit from this episode, please rate and subscribe. We'd really appreciate it. That helps keep us going. Take care, friends. Bye, friends.

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