Keeping it Real

Ep. 32 Now "Might" Be the Time! Plus Mosquito Creek Marina Evictions

• Jacquie McCarnan • Season 1 • Episode 32

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Is the Vancouver real estate market poised to flip in favor of sellers this fall? Join us on this episode of Keeping it Real as we unpack the latest shifts in the market dynamics. We analyze recent statistics showing increased sales activity and a reduction in new listings, pointing towards a healthier and potentially seller-driven market. For those considering selling their homes, especially downsizers, we offer strategic advice and actionable tips on preparing your home for sale, illustrated through the journey of our fictional clients, James and Peter. 

Wondering if now's the time to sell your home? We explore market strategies and timing, using James and Peter’s situation to highlight the benefits of capitalizing on current conditions. Discover how selling now can lead to better financial outcomes and opportunities to purchase lower-priced condos or townhouses. We'll emphasize the critical importance of personalized realtor advice and sprinkle in some unique local knowledge about the Mosquito Creek Marina and its boat sheds, adding a touch of charm to our discussion.

Finally, we shift our focus to a pressing local issue: the significant changes at the Mosquito Creek Marina. Learn about the engineering assessment, the disrepair findings, and the resulting eviction notices affecting boat shed and boat residents. We delve into the community's response and broader implications for affordable housing. Plus, we wrap up with some exciting Labor Day weekend updates, including a seller's and buyer's guide, and a few local events to enjoy. Tune in for valuable insights to help you navigate the Vancouver real estate landscape and more!

Seller's guide: https://www.northvanhomesales.com/_files/ugd/22bc2a_416ed26947184f3d8430e9dffc8c5c46.pdf

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Speaker 1:

Hey friends, welcome back to Keeping it Real, the Vancouver and area residential real estate podcast that aims to cut through all the noise that you hear about real estate here in the Lower Mainland and in other parts of British Columbia as well. My name is Jackie McCarnan and I am your host for Keeping it Real. I am a North Vancouver, west Vancouver, downtown Vancouver, east Vancouver, some New West Tri-Cities, a little bit Vancouver West yeah, there's lots of places that I cover. Anyway, I'm a realtor, if you hadn't guessed that already, and I spend a lot of my time diving into statistics and figuring out exactly what's happening in the market and providing you with, hopefully, some entertaining content that helps to demystify what the heck is happening in the lower mainland. I've been an agent for a good long time and I've seen lots of different phases of our market and I think that there's a lot of confusion around what happens in the real estate market. So that's why I created this podcast, podcast, podcast, in the first place back in January of this year, 2024. And I think that well, I mean I know that people are getting a lot out of it because they tell me they are. So pass along to your friends if you think that they would be interested in the info. Pass it along to your friends if you think that they would be interested in the info. I always add a disclaimer at the beginning of all my episodes just to tell you that anything you hear on Keeping it Real is my opinion, based on research that I've done on the topic and my experience in the real estate industry in the Lower Mainland, which I think I've said Lower Mainland enough so far on this episode.

Speaker 1:

On the last episode, I talked about not listing your home for sale right now, because in mid-August the statistics, the numbers, were definitely not in favor of selling in a quick market. We were very firmly in a buyer's market and it's just if you didn't have to sell, it really wasn't the best time to list your home. Fun fact that episode was recorded two weeks ago because, as most of you know, there was a glitch with my um, my email marketing system that I send out my hi-fi fridays, and so I got the week off, which was cool, except that now I'm not going to hit 52 episodes for the year, but I can live with that. Anyway, in the last two weeks things have definitely changed a little bit actually, and it looks like it's trending toward more of a balanced market. Now we have currently in North Vancouver, we have almost 60, 257 homes that are currently listed for sale and there were 20 sales, which is a whole lot better than the 400 plus homes we had listed with only, I think, 15 or 17 sales, which we did in the last episode. So, even though it's still summer, still August I mean tomorrow, I think, is the 31st of August so, even though we haven't quite hit September yet, we are seeing a little bit more buyer activity in the single-family homes and I think that is indicative of what's to come in the fall.

Speaker 1:

I mean, I'm definitely not the only one saying this fall. I mean I'm not definitely not the only one saying this. Most people who work in this industry realtors or mortgage brokers or financial planners or anybody is saying that there's an expectation that we are going to start moving toward a seller's market pretty rapidly into the fall. The other thing that happened over the last two weeks is that there have been fewer homes listed. So there are only 66 new homes listed, which is great, because that just means that our inventory isn't so huge like it was. Two weeks ago. It was over 400. So now we have, we really are in the mid 200s, which is a much more manageable figure to sell through in a reasonable amount of time.

Speaker 1:

Usually and I'm only saying this from experience and from some of the stats that I've pulled over the years but usually when we see the single family home market moving, it means that the condos, townhomes and triplexes what are they called? Duplexes, not biplexes. That's weird. They usually move a little faster and that's certainly been the case over the last two weeks. So we had 148 homes listed that were either condo, duplex, townhouse so they're called attached and 47 sales, which is great. So that is actually firmly in a balanced market and moving toward a seller's market, which is so, if you have a um, a condo you want to sell, not a bad time to list.

Speaker 1:

Which brings me to the question that I get asked more often than not uh, should I list my home for sale now? Should I buy now? I think that there is a whole lot of opportunity here for somebody who's been thinking about downsizing for a little while. Number one I'm going to attach this in the High Five Friday newsletter. If you don't get it, you can also get this on my website. I have a seller's guide. It talks about how to prep your home for sale in a month or two before you actually list and it's worth taking a look at if you are thinking about listing your home. But with regard to should I list right now, it depends. So I always say that it depends Was it depend on? It depends on whether or not you are going to buy in the same market. So let's say, let's say you want to sell your home and move somewhere else probably a really good time to sell. If you want to downsize into a condo from the family home, it might be the right time to sell, but it is going to require some strategy.

Speaker 1:

On that note, let's have a story time time. I know how you guys love my stories, so I made up a little story here about um to fake clients, imaginary clients. James and Peter. They've been living in the big house, as their kids call it. These are not real people, but I'm just making all this up. Anyway, they've been living in the big house in Edgemont for about 30 years. Kids have all grown up, moved away and they have homes of their own.

Speaker 1:

So Jay and Pete are thinking about selling and they come to me and they say, hey, jackie, should we sell our house? Now we sit down and we have a conversation and I say, well, like what do you want to do? So if you sell the house, what's the plan? And they say we think we want to buy a house in Spain or Pender Island, some kind of vacation property. And these guys are dreamers, they think big right. Also, if you do sell your house in North Vancouver and it's a single family home, you could probably buy a place in Spain without much trouble. But I digress. Anyway, wherever they do, wherever they decide to buy, they also want to buy a little pierre de terre here on the North shore so they can have a foothold here still and hang out with their grandchildren who are on the way. Probably maybe I mean they're not pressuring the kids or anything, but you know hopefully one day soon.

Speaker 1:

So for James and Peter, this is actually not a bad time to sell. If they, they should spend the next week or two or three even getting the place ready, so getting rid of half the stuff, selling anything that they don't use anymore, making the kids come and grab all their crap that's been sitting in the basement or in storage forever, and anything that they can do, like, let's say, they have a I don't know a bright blue bedroom. They should probably paint that white Anything they can do to make the home presentable to the highest number of people. This is a really great time to prep all that. You don't want to be doing that when you're about to sell because it puts too much pressure on you. So if you have an inkling that you're thinking about selling soon in the window that is coming up, then, you know, do the little chores. That will really help people when they walk in, see the potential for their own family living there, and I'm always happy to come and help and do a walkthrough. Sometimes I'll even paint a wall, although I doubt that's going to happen right now I'm kind of busy, but who knows? Anyway, call me and I'll come and do a little assessment and tell you. You know, to change out these doorknobs or to paint this room. But this is a really good time to start thinking about those things and all that stuff's in my seller's guide that I will attach to the.

Speaker 1:

Well, actually, you know what? I'll even put a link in the show notes now if james and peter list their home in the next couple of weeks as the market is heating up for single family homes, they are very likely to get a fairly good price for their home, and it gives them opportunity to buy something like a condo or a townhouse that has been sitting on the market all summer, because anybody who's had a condo or townhouse that is a stale listing so it's been sitting on the market for quite some time are probably going to entertain offers at lower than list price. So that's probably a great time. You sell your place in the next three weeks and you get an offer on another place that's been sitting stale for quite some time. That would be great.

Speaker 1:

I'm not saying that's a guarantee that it'll work out like that, but sometimes timing is everything, and I had some exceptional timing for some clients in 2022 where they sold their house, got quite a lot of money for it and bought into a condo that was still slightly undervalued because it had been sitting on the market for quite some time. So, even though James and Peter might not be selling, it had been sitting on the market for quite some time. So even though James and Peter might not be selling at the very top of the market, they also aren't selling at the bottom of the market because, despite the fact that things haven't been moving super fast this summer, we haven't seen much of a price drop in single family home values. So they're still going to get a reasonable amount for their single family home and maybe they're going to get a deal on the buy side and even if they aren't getting the top of the market in their home, they're probably going to make up for it on the buy side. So I don't know, I think it's probably, strategically, it's probably not a bad time to sell and, again, happy to take a look and let you know If your place needs a ton of work. You're probably going to miss this window over the next two and a half months.

Speaker 1:

So all of September, all of October and then into the middle of November, very likely going to start seeing the market take a big run. I think I mean again, this is just based on my historical experience talking to colleagues understanding the economics of the interest rate drops, that sort of thing. It might not happen. So don't come at me in six weeks and tell me that I was out to lunch, okay. So the answer to the question, hey, jack, is this a good time to sell? Is maybe Sorry about that, but again, it's going to depend on your product.

Speaker 1:

It's going to depend on what you want to do and that's why, when I talk to you on these podcasts, I try not to make sweeping statements that are meant to apply to everybody, because they just don't. Everybody's situation is slightly different and everybody has different goals about what they want to do if they do sell the family home. So we, just in order to get it right, we have to sit down and have a conversation and, again, always happy to do that. But if you already have a realtor, I really value when people have a realtor that they're loyal to, because that's what I want from my clients. So, if you're finding this information useful, send it to your realtor and ask them what they think. I mean they might have an entirely different opinion and that's cool, too Happy to have a conversation with them about. But I mean, anyway, either way it's, it's always going to be up to you, the client, what you want to do, but we can help because we have the benefit of, first of all, stats that back up opinion and experience. So you know whatever you want to do if you want to make a decision to sell now, probably not a terrible idea over the next couple of weeks and months.

Speaker 1:

Okay, so just because I knew this was going to be a bit shorter of an episode, because I knew I was just going to talk about the current state of the market, I wanted to add in something fun for you guys, and mostly people on the North Shore are going to be interested in this, but maybe people elsewhere are too. I don't know, that it's fun, it's just fascinating and interesting. So, for those of you living here, you know that we have a marina called the Mosquito Creek Marina that is at the bottom of is it Fell or Mahon? One of those? Yeah, mahon, and it's been around for a really long time. It's owned by the Squamish Nation and there are about there's 500 boats in the marina, 38 boat sheds, and if you've never seen one, they're pretty cool. It's a kind of a giant garage where you drive the boat into the bottom and then there's a suite above, like with, you know, kitchen, bathroom, bedrooms, that sort of thing. They're really neat, like beautiful. Some of them are terrible. And then there are a bunch of float homes and if you've ever taken a walk east of Lonsdale Key toward Marine side, whatever it's called you've walked past these really cool colorful float homes, which I'll talk about those in a second.

Speaker 1:

Anyway, so back in December the management company for the Mosquito Creek Marina, the Squamish nation, got a new management company and the first thing that they did was they got an engineering assessment of the state of the marina and it was not good. And I don't know if any of you have ever been down there, but I've shown boat sheds in there and it's perilous to walk along the docks, especially the the fingers. So you have the main dock and then you have the fingers that go out where boats kind of um tie up alongside, and those fingers are in extreme disrepair, big holes in them, the planks move like it's all wood. So it's just anyway, it's just a mess. And so this engineering report came back and said this is super dangerous. Liability is through the roof. Can't believe you guys have been operating like this for so long. Now. The Marina staff have done Herculean efforts to shore up these deficiencies, but you can't really do that piecemeal. You have to kind of take everything apart and put it all back together again like fix it.

Speaker 1:

The residents of the boat sheds and about 500 boats notice that by the end of May 2024, they had to vacate so that these repairs could be done. The float homes would stay where they are. They're more solid You'd have to see it to understand, really but they're actual, real homes with three levels of living and probably a concrete floaty base, sort of thing. To give you a general idea, a boat shed might be $450,000, but these float homes are one and a half million dollars and they're all on the kind of right against the shore, so none of them are out into the marina itself. Anyway, obviously so. Also, I should mention too that Mosquito Creek is one of the only places where you can live aboard, so they have like a certain number of tickets where people can live there all year long.

Speaker 1:

So a lot of people who had a bit of home insecurity were living on boats in the Mosquito Creek Marina. So, needless to say this, for all intents and purposes, eviction notice was really upsetting and many of the owners fought against it and several people, like almost everybody's left. But there's still 130 boats and 17 boat sheds remaining and they have now been given until I think it's September 2025 is what I read to vacate, I suspect. I mean, I couldn't find any information about this online. But perhaps the management company engineering team can fix the parts of the marina that need fixing and then those boat sheds could be moved to the new parts. While they fix where those boat sheds are now I don't know. I mean, that seems like a solution that might work, but there's more. So you know how I like to pop over to Reddit to find out what people are actually thinking. So people are freaking out. Obviously, the people who live there were really worried and many of them have been rehomed. Many of these boat sheds have been rehomed and almost all of the boats are gone.

Speaker 1:

But a lot of people were speculating that the Squamish nation was going to develop the marina into something else. I don't really know how that would look like. Maybe, I guess maybe a whole bunch of float homes, which would make sense because they certainly are a money maker like they cost a fortune to buy and also they have to pay a mortgage, right. So, anyway, the management company is called Niche K Niche K I hope I'm pronouncing that right. I apologize if I am not, and please somebody let me know otherwise. Anyway, niche K has said that there are no plans for any kind of redevelopment at this time. Who knows? I think Vancouverites are pretty jaded when it comes to what governing authorities say about development, but I don't know.

Speaker 1:

Maybe I had hoped to interview one of the residents down there at Mosquito Creek, but I left my podcast recording to the last minute because I am working on a huge project which I'm going to announce in the next couple of weeks. But I, you know, I really wanted to talk to somebody who was still living down there, but I wasn't able to get in touch with anybody. So if you know somebody who is still living down there who will would like to be on the podcast and talk about how they feel about all of this, I would be delighted to speak to them. I really, you know, I think it's probably it's a mixture between much needed repairs and then where are all these people going to go? Right, I feel pretty bad for the people who rely on that very inexpensive living arrangement. Like, what can they do? It's not like they could go from you know what they pay now to a one bedroom condo, which is $2,500 a month in North Van. So who knows? I hope that they are okay. If anybody wants to speak to me, please reach out, which is $2,500 a month in North Van. So who knows? I hope that they are okay. If anybody wants to speak to me, please reach out. All right, kids, that's it for this week.

Speaker 1:

Because it's Labor Day weekend, I am going to limit my High Five Fridays to just a couple of points, including the seller's guide and a buyer's guide and maybe a couple of things going on around town this Labor Day weekend. But I hope you have a happy and safe Labor Day weekend. Please, please, be safe. It's going to be gorgeous out there. I'm jealous because I'm going to be in my office all weekend working on the big project that I just sort of referred to a minute ago. All will be revealed. I trip over my tongue. You can get Keeping it Real anywhere. You get your podcasts, including Spotify and Apple Music, or at northvanhomesalescom slash podcasts. This is the 32nd episode. I love bringing them to you. If there's something you want to know about around town and you want me to research it and do a podcast, I would be more than happy to do so and, as always, I am here to answer any questions you might have about the real estate market in and around the North Shore, right, so hit me up anytime.

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Jacquie McCarnan

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