Insight Out
Insight Out is a podcast brought to you by Pavel and Carolina as a side activity during their PhD studies. We are curious minds and science enthusiastics. Insight Out focuses on daily lives of academicians and entrepreneurs. We like to talk about all types of experiences in science, scientific commmunities and especially love personal stories of our guests. This is the place where science get unfiltered with honest, truthful and engaging discussions with our guests!
Insight Out
Amalie Halle Christensen: Labyrinths Of Labor Market Shocks
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Have you ever witnessed the intricate dance of numbers and theories weave a story so compelling it changes a life's path? Amalie did, and she’s here to recount the metamorphosis from a music enthusiast to a devotee of economics and mathematics. Through her eyes, we see how an advanced macroeconomics course at the University of Oslo wasn't just a class—it was a pivotal moment where the elegance of mathematics brought economic concepts to life. Numbers, intuition, shocks, labor market, inflation, wars, pandemics, economical predictions, AI, tenure track. Kick back, relax, and let the waves of wisdom wash over you in this podcast episode – where learning meets laughter, and knowledge is served with a side of chill vibes!
All music clips were used from the song "Jukka Tukka" after agreement with amazing band and friends 2+1 Jam band.
This podcast episode was created under the technical and official support of University of Oslo, Norway.
Economics and Mathematics Connection
Speaker 1Welcome to our next episode of podcast Inside Out , and today we have a very cool guest . We have Amalia today . Hi , amalia .
Speaker 2Hello .
Speaker 1Could you briefly introduce yourself , please ?
Speaker 2Yes , my name is Amalia and I have completed my master's thesis in economics and now I'm working grown up adult job . I like playing the cello . Like you , I like doing yoga . Yeah .
Speaker 1Nice , so this episode will be a little bit different . I'm very happy for that . So we will talk about economy and about mathematics . So my first question is why economy and why mathematics ? What led you to study those two topics ?
Speaker 2Well , I thought I would be studying music actually when I was young , but I tried attending music high school and figured out that the subject I enjoy the most was mathematics , which made me switch to international baccalaureate , and the selection of subjects at my high school doing that program was quite limited actually . So I had to do either history or economics or both , and I'm not really a fan of studying history .
Speaker 2I mean , I guess I regret that today , but I'm quite bad at remembering numbers and the years and names . So it was a bad combination for me and therefore I had to do economics . But I found out that I really enjoyed doing economics . It was my favorite subject , yeah , and I considered continuing with it . I actually thought I at that point . I thought I would do engineering . I think cyber engineering , like robotics and stuff .
Speaker 1Okay .
Speaker 2That was my original plan , but I just liked economics . So it was one day I was like , why don't I just do economics , okay ? So there's this website where you apply for universities , and I went into this website and switched my first choice from economics no , from engineering to economics . I made a mistake , though , because the Norwegian school of economics it has economics in its name , but it is actually a business school . I applied to this because this was all very hasty , right . I just did this on a whim and I was like , oh , norwegian school of economics , that's a good school .
Speaker 1So was it like I see economics , I apply .
Speaker 2Oh , it was like you know , budgeting and just business stuff . I just hated those three years . I did the whole bachelor's degree there but I quickly switched to UIO for my master's thesis to do a proper economics thesis . I mean I guess I could have continued at a new region's school of economics With master's thesis there they have an economics master's thesis . But I really like UIOs or University of Oslo's reputation of being more math oriented in their subjects . You know , some universities are kind of like intuition oriented or they kind of value different things , I guess . And University of Oslo it has a rumor of valuing or being quite math heavy , which I which I like and therefore I picked University of Oslo , of course is also very close to where I have grown up , so it was very practical .
Speaker 1Cool . So you , it seems like a , you know , mathematical person , like , because , of course , the aims are the study subjects . Since you mentioned you would like you wanted to study engineering as well . Yes , and it's like it seems to me that not many women like mathematics , like per se . What do you like about mathematics ? I know that also . You know a lot of musicians or also musical composers might have something to do with mathematics , maybe also like , maybe not intentionally , but like you know , the music itself is quite quite mathematical , I believe . So what was the reason to deep , or going deeper into into the math , and what do you like about it the most ?
Speaker 2I think , the reason why I like mathematics . I don't think it was my choice . I think it's partly my genes , because my mother's side of the family they are all mathematicians and so it was inevitable for you kind of .
Speaker 2It just not that I think that mathematics is easy . I think I just like working with it , like the way you work with mathematics and learn it . I like that way of working . You just go through the problems and try to solve them and try to puzzle it all together and you don't really like . As long as you understand the logic , then you can solve lots of problems right . So you don't have to like learn one specific fact , although of course there are special cases in mathematics as well but the way you learn it it's more logic based and I think that's what I liked about it .
Speaker 2And I mean it's lucky for me that economics also uses a lot of mathematics . I think engineering type mathematics could have been interesting as well , although I it might be a bit more difficult . Economic is more like statistics directed , although of course to solve economical problems you also have to know mathematics . It's basically a lot of math , at least when you get past the point of intuition , like intuitively understanding the mechanisms . But if you apply the economics then you have to know statistics as well , which is I think statistics is in a way different from mathematics , as least in why I enjoy doing statistics . It's more like interesting to find models , to try to model the reality , try to predict what will happen or find patterns , and also trying to recognize what might go wrong in those predictions and learning new techniques to find out what goes wrong . I mean , I think statistics to . When you get to this point , it kind of is mostly about what goes wrong .
Speaker 1Yeah , I see . Well , I will definitely ask more about those . But I would also like to ask the connection between the mathematics and the economy for you , what was the ultimate , let's say the best experience you had , for example , during your studies , like when you kind of started to understood the mathematics very well and then you can probably applied it for some economical topics or problems ? How was it for you , how well it went together or melted together , and for you that you find yourself very comfortable in that ?
Speaker 2I think it was very fun during my last autumn when I did an advanced macroeconomics course , because then beforehand I had had both an advanced econometrics course and also a mathematics course . That was kind of beyond what you had to do for this thesis and that subject , a macroeconomics course . It used formulas from both of those subjects so you really started to see how it all went together . I think for me I've never questioned why I need to learn this when I do mathematics , because there's always a way to apply it , even if perhaps for just curiosity or trying to figure something out . But this was very practical , this application of inflation and stuff so that was very fun to use . It also gave me an advantage in this course , of course to recognize this , that's even better .
Speaker 1So I'm curious about your master
Effects of Labor Market Shocks
Speaker 1thesis . What was the topic of the thesis and what did you find ?
Speaker 2So the topic of my master thesis , it was the effect of labour market shocks on workers and the role of contract permanence , which is quite a mouthful . But what I studied specifically was mass layoffs and if such a mass layoff affects workers differently or not , depending on the type of industry they work in . And the type of industry was separated by whether the industry used many permanent workers or many non-permanent workers . So , to put this more into context , let's say nurses or teachers , for example , if their industries are hit by some shock that causes mass layoff , which means that many people lose their job at the same time from the same company , are their wages affected differently because they are working in industries characterized by a high level of non-permanent contracts , or are they not ? How are nurses and , let's say , people employed in finance , affected differently if they lose their job or if they work in a sector of a specific kind ?
Speaker 2Yeah , I realize that this might be quite difficult to explain . That's fine , but it was interesting because it kind of depends on , let's say , what sort of skills you manage to work your way up to when you work for a certain company . Let's say that you work in finance and you get very specialized at what you do , you become quite valuable to the company , right ? But also , if you happen to lose your job , then you might struggle more to find a new job afterwards because you were so specialized in this . Yeah .
Speaker 1I see ?
Speaker 2Yes , especially if this shock affects the entire finance sector . Right , because if you are very specialized in doing something that can only be used in the finance sector and every finance firm has a problem then you might struggle to find employment , however . So I found that those who worked in industries characterized by a high level of permanent contracts , they struggled more to find new employment , which was expected , but their wages were more robust , which I guess also was expected , because you might have , let's say , higher expectations . You might have more value because of your specialized skill . There may be many reasons for this , but those were my findings . I guess I could have continued to build on this . It is , after all , only a master's thesis , so you don't really push the current knowledge as far as you might have wished . It's not very advanced and I think I could have made this more advanced , the analysis in particular , but I didn't have time .
Speaker 1Yeah , so you worked on your thesis during COVID period , partially , partially yes . Do you think it was good for you in terms of because it seems that COVID was definitely a reason for the topics you studied ? Did you you know it's a little bit bad to say it , but find it useful to do the thesis on this topic during COVID time ? You think ?
Speaker 2Well , I think it has certainly . Covid has certainly been good for my future , because I'm going to do a PhD about effects of COVID oh , nice , yes , or , well , the effect of produced labor access to the industry which you would find during COVID when they close the borders , so it has certainly been useful for this . My data for my master's thesis didn't actually span across COVID , because it takes some time to create those data , yeah , so I think it's only now that we have 2022 data which we would need if we wanted to capture , like , the whole shock or at least the after effects , I think . Well , covid to me , was also quite nice , although I know it might be bad to say this , but I enjoyed the solitude , or , yeah , I actually I still could see my friends outside and we went for walks . So I didn't I wasn't as affected by this loneliness , but it did give me a lot of time during my week to yeah .
Speaker 1For yourself and for myself .
Speaker 2Relax study . I felt like I had a lot of time during COVID and then , and then the society opened back up and I felt like I never had time to do anything because everyone was so eager to do stuff . Again I was like no , no , please let me be .
Speaker 1Yes , I must be alone . So I would like to ask you a little bit about inflation . So , of course , there are different types of inflation , there are different reasons for inflation . So , firstly , I am interested in modeling of inflation . How can you model inflation and what tools are there and like how difficult and how precise the task is ?
Speaker 2Yes , so inflation is measured using a consumer price index , which is basically what you call a basket of goods . So you take different goods , let's say books and clothes and houses and food etc . And then you bunch this together and then you figure out how expensive it is to live . And if the basket of goods , if the price of the basket , has increased over time in a nation , then there has been inflation . And inflation can be caused by different mechanisms . So there is demand side inflation and supply side inflation , which means demand side is when demand increases , so when many people want the same good , then they will have to fight amongst each other to get this good right and that would push the price of the good up . And supply side , on the other hand , is if the supply of a good is reduced , then the price would have to go up in order to meet the market .
Speaker 1Yes .
Speaker 2So , in terms of how difficult this is to model , this is not my specialty , but I know that there are methods you use to model this and that there are many disagreements amongst those who are in the field on how you should model this . Recently , I think there was this fight among the professors at the Institute of Accounting actually on some inflation models and , I think , some prediction models or something about inflation . It was a very heated debate , was there any winner ?
Speaker 2Yes , there was a winner , but that was mainly because one of the professors got very rude so he kind of lost his credibility . Yeah , that's not good . Yes , but I know that both sides of this are quite valid , although I think one of them is the most popular one and the one used by the central bank , which was the opinion of the not rude professor , if I remember correctly .
Speaker 1Because to me it sounds very chaotic to predict to some degree , because the inflation , of course , as you said , there are different reasons for that and , of course , different triggers , like it could be again . We saw it during the pandemic . It was like a worldwide event , but you have also the local triggers probably , I guess , as local wars , as we saw during the Ukraine war and now also in the Middle East . So there's like a lot of unknown factors that you kind of need to put into your model , right .
Speaker 2Yes .
Speaker 1But how can you ?
Speaker 2yeah , how can you ?
Speaker 1model it if basically almost everything can cause this ?
Speaker 2Well , what you're describing now is shocks .
Speaker 1Okay .
Speaker 2So let's say that nothing ever happened and things were just normal and chill , then inflation would be relatively easy to predict , because it depends on factors such as the interest rate . If the interest rate is lower than inflation increases because people take up more loans , for example , which they can use to spend , and also things such as government spending . If the government decides to spend more of their funds that they have available , then this will also be a sort of demand . It will funnel money into the economy . But then sometimes things happen , as you said , such as COVID shock or the Ukraine war shock , which are very hard to predict . I think then you would have to predict the future .
Speaker 1So you're not there yet .
Speaker 2I guess some people can do this , but I'm not one of them . Yeah , and they offset whatever plan the government or the central bank has . And these sort of happenings and these two , the COVID and the Ukraine war they affected the Norwegian economy in different directions , both increased inflation , but for different reasons . So if you remember what I said about the man side and the supply side inflation , yes , then the COVID was sort of for the man side inflation Because , first of all , in order to save the economy , I guess then the central bank lowered its interest rates to like very low I think it was almost zero at some point which made people take up more loans because this was cheaper and the central interest rate can be seen as the price of money in a way . So the price of money was very low and , yeah , people spent more , I think , or at least they would have more reason to do so and one of the things people spent their money on was their homes they stayed home a lot and goods such as construction materials . The prices of those went up and if you put construction materials into the basket of goods , then consumer price index rises . Yeah , when didn't other companies know about that at all ?
Speaker 2And when it comes to the Ukraine war , it has the opposite mechanism in a way , because war tends to offset both production of goods In this case it was especially food but also the delivery of goods , like the whole supply chain gets disordered . And this means that in order to import goods , let's say food , into Norway , this became more difficult and therefore also more expensive . And those prices , instead of the industries or the businesses pillowing those prices , they just put it onto the end product prices and that increased the price for us consumers . So ultimately we pay the price , although the price was higher for the producers at first . There's also quite weak corona right now , or the currency is doing not very well , which means that imports are more expensive as well , because the purchasing power using one corona is not as high as it used to be when the corona was stronger . So there are many reasons leading up to inflation now , which means that the interest rate has been set up by quite a lot , causing problems for many .
Speaker 1It's very interesting , since you mentioned you wanted to study history . What can we learn from the past examples of inflation events , because in the past there were so many of them ? I mean , of course , it's difficult to compare today and 100 years ago or something right , but is there anything in common that we can use it for being better at tackling this .
Speaker 2I think this is more my opinion than some sort of fancior with lots of facts , but I think the economy should be led with stability in mind , so the end goal should also always be stability . So well , the interest rate is a very powerful tool for steering inflation , and perhaps we were a bit too hasty with lowering the interest rents during COVID . Might be , I haven't really studied this that closely . But again , what could we have accepted when it came to difficult times during COVID ? Perhaps we should have done some sacrifice there in order to not have this very high interest rate right now .
Speaker 2So I think stability is a good goal . This might also be unrelated , but I think that we should be careful with how much loans we have , or the central bank should try to minimize the amount of loans that people take up and how much they spend . I mean , that's what they're doing now . They're setting the interest rate high because they want people to have more difficult times , because they want people to spend less , because this is the only way to reduce the inflation . But that is , of course , hard now and we used to have very good times before COVID and also , for many people , during COVID , and I think that if we had sacrificed those good times by , for example , having less purchasing power , then we would have better times now .
Speaker 1Yes , Okay , but yeah , it's always like the decisions right to be made .
Speaker 2And there are many people it's not just consumers who have an interest in whatever the central bank or the government does . Yes , it's industries , and yeah , nice .
Speaker 1Okay , I will ask you actually one more question before we will move to another topic . Yes , so AI and economic . What's your thought about that , and is there any way that you are applying artificial intelligence in your daily life , as an economist or not ?
Speaker 2I do use AI a little bit , but that's mostly for coding and I write my codes at work and I'm stuck and then I will use chat GDP to get unstuck .
Speaker 2The little helper , yeah , I think it can also be useful for asking simple , intuitive questions . I think one of the issues with getting up to a certain level at least for me in economics is that you start to look at it in a very mathematical sense and you look at the numbers or the equations and stuff and you sometimes at least I sometimes tend to forget the intuition behind this , and chat GDP can be very useful in just explaining the intuition behind what happens and actually happens with the equations or stuff . When it comes to actually using AI at this point in time , I guess some people do it . I'm not sure I would trust it . I still don't trust it .
Speaker 2For my codes I always double check what it does , and it's often not correct , yeah it's good to do yes so yeah , I don't have very high expectations for it , but I might be conservative in that sense .
Future PhD Project and Academic Aspirations
Speaker 1I think it would be nice to talk a little bit about your future PhD project , since you've got the offer and you accept it . Yes , I have , yes , so I know it's very early , but could you just like spill some beans to us and say what the project will be and like ? What do you expect out of that ?
Speaker 2The project is on economic shocks and how this affects industries . So , although I have written my project proposal on the effects of well , in particular the COVID shock for me , but I think the method I use could be applied to other shocks as well yeah , I'm going to look at how that affects industry performance . I haven't yet figured out how I will measure industry performance , but I think I'll get there . I guess I should have learned something about this during my three years at business school , but it's somewhere there , yes , somewhere inside my head , I'm notoriously bad at business .
Speaker 2actually it's a handicap for me , but I will have to return to it by force . So that's basically what I will do . I think it will be mostly empirical work , but I have thought about trying to expand on a model with the labor reduction and labor access .
Speaker 1Nice . Yes , so do you expect to use a lot of mathematics ?
Speaker 2Yes .
Speaker 1Hopefully Perfect . So of course people don't do PhD just out of fun . Maybe there are some rare persons . So what's your aspiration in your career , especially after PhD ? What would you like to do ?
Speaker 2Well , of course , to become a professor . That's what I would like to do , although I know that this is very difficult , especially if I want to become a professor in Oslo , which I would prefer , of course . I really enjoy living in Oslo . So I do have a plan B . I could go back to the industry . Some firm , I think also working at the central bank could be interesting if what I'm doing is relevant for them . But ideally I think I would take a postdoc or try to somehow get a tenure tracker . But we'll see .
Speaker 2I try not to think too much about this .
Speaker 1So you don't have a plan now for 10 years with achievements and milestones in mind .
Speaker 2Well , I do kind of have a 10-year plan .
Speaker 1I thought you would .
Speaker 2I'm the kind of person who has the , I think when it comes to being successful in academia , oh yeah , that's a very interesting question .
Speaker 1Please tell me yes , because that's the key right to becoming a professor .
Speaker 2It's being successful . I think there are more aspects to this than just being a good student . I have an uncle one of these mathematicians , at my mother's side . He's a professor in mathematics in Italy and I talk to him about what I need to do in order to have success .
Speaker 1It's very nice to have someone from family doing the same or been there done that .
Speaker 2He keeps telling me don't do this . He's encouraging , but he does give me a reality check on what I'm signing up for now . But he has had many PhD students and that one thing that separates one PhD student from another is the ability to communicate what they are learning , because being in academia it's also largely about communicating your work right , publishing and presenting your work . Publishing in good papers or journals . I think you have to have this sort of direction on what sort of articles you want to push out and where you want to push them . But in order to actually get them out on the market , you have to be a good writer as well and a good communicator , and I think many people forget this , that they think that if they're just smart or work hard enough with the mathematics , then they will be successful in academia . But you can know a lot of stuff and if you're not able to communicate this , then no one cares , right ? Yeah , yes , and then it will be difficult for you , I think , in academia .
Speaker 2So I know that there are many weird and strong personalities in academia as well . So this is not the only thing , yeah , but being a good writer . So I think I think it's not perhaps a plan like a specific step-by-step plan . It's mostly just a focus Like how will I go into this ? And , yeah , I will try to have a direction when I write my papers , because I , yeah , as I said , you have to publish well in order to have success . Not just publish for publishing sake , but publish well , like good papers and good journals . Yeah , so that's my goal .
Speaker 1Yeah , I mean the entire publishing . You know culture it's sometimes not that good , neither , like you know . Also , like researchers are forced to publish a lot to get the grants and stuff , and sometimes yeah , then the quality might also be affected by that yeah , I heard . Yeah , I mean again . You know working in the private company , right ?
Speaker 2So you can State owned .
Speaker 1State owned , yeah , so then you know how it is working there , and you can also like work in academia , which is completely different setting and culture as well .
Speaker 2I work in statistics Norway right now . Yeah , in their research department not as a researcher yet and I guess , yeah , yeah , so I do collaborate with scientists there and they publish as well , but it's more like policy directed . So their end goal is necessarily to publish in popular journals , but to impact policy and to inform . So it's very Norway directed their work . Yeah and yeah , so it's a different sort of publishing culture . It's not as tough as statistics .
Speaker 1Norway .
Speaker 2Yeah , I think it is in academia Nice .
Speaker 1So I think it's very nice that you have this in mind already , because , again , it's not easy . It's a path and definitely not one of the easiest aim to have . So it's good to think about that and what do you want to achieve ? And I will definitely wish you the best .
Speaker 2Thank you .
Speaker 1And I really hope you will enjoy . Enjoy your PhD .
Speaker 2I hope so too . I'm not turning up for something stupid .
Speaker 1Yeah , you mentioned the reading . Oh sorry , you mentioned the writing is an important part . Do you enjoy writing ? I do enjoy writing .
Speaker 2actually I have written both creative works . I really enjoy that .
Speaker 1Like poems , or poems , yes , yes , sometimes poems .
Speaker 2I tried starting on a book this winter , which didn't . I think I got half ways and then I lost inspiration . But I might pick it up again . Yes , of course unedited . So yeah . But that's not academic at all , that's more like young old genre .
Speaker 1Yeah , but it's quite impressive still it's fun .
Speaker 2You get very stuck up into this , like the story that you're trying to tell , right .
Speaker 1That's all I think about the story , right , even if you think about the articles later on , yes , yeah , I also done some journalism at the Norwegian School of Economics .
Speaker 2I used to be a magazine editor-in-chief there for a magazine Like a student journal , which was fun . I think that was actually great because you were pushed to write . I think the downside was trying to find stories or stuff to write about , but once you had this , then it was fun to write . Yeah , I did that for a couple of years , so I do actually really enjoy writing , although what I write differs a lot .
Speaker 1I mean it's probably a very good benefit to have , or a good skill . I know that not many people like writing , oh yeah . So I mean , again , it will be different story for your research , but again , the principle is still the same .
Speaker 2I think sometimes writing academically can be quite a pain , to be honest , I'm not gonna lie . You have to be so structured in the way you write . You cannot just create a picture with your words . You have to have a topic sentence .
Speaker 2Everything has to make sense and there has to be a string between it all . I think when I work , when I write , it starts out very messy and then suddenly it just sorts itself out . It's a very strange process . I always have panic when I write Like , oh , this is just a lot of mess , like jumbled down words and yeah . And then I think over the span of like one or two days I can like revise the thing and it suddenly makes me think , oh , I'm gonna write a book . And it suddenly makes sense , like it's like as if I just sort it all out into their correct spots . So it's the same process every time . I get equally as amazed every time or confused .
Speaker 1I see Perfect , so I think I will have last two questions that we should end on the live note . So does Norwegian Academy needs more women in the faculty , do you think ?
Speaker 2I think . But I think they have also been very good at creating a gender balance these last few years . I mean , of course , among the older professors there aren't many women , but among the fresh prospects , then the gender balance is doing quite well . So I can see that they are working on it , which is good .
Speaker 1Cool .
Speaker 2Yes , I don't know about older faculties , of course .
Speaker 1I think . It seems to me it's balanced to some degree , at least in our institute .
Speaker 2Yeah , and yeah .
Speaker 1And I have a question . Of course , that is more fun than very serious
Bergen
Speaker 1. So what do you think about Bergen ?
Speaker 2Bergen , oh Bergen . It's a beautiful city . I really enjoy being downtown and seeing the mountains surrounding the city , especially when there's fog . That's actually quite nice Although , of course , bright day is also beautiful but there's something about the fog that makes it all very magical , like as if there are trolls there .
Speaker 1Yeah , but there are right .
Speaker 2Oh , there might be . However , living there day by day basis I would not recommend . You think you know rain , but then you hear that there's a new rain record every autumn in Bergen , like it's never ending . You can never look good . You can never leave your house looking good because you have to have a raincoat and rainboots and umbrella and you cannot even use the umbrella because it's a windy , so you just have to pack yourself into like this rain material and your hair gets all frizzy and you cannot wear makeup because that just gets off right in the water as you come to school looking like a drenched rat and luckily everyone else does as well .
Speaker 2But there's always someone who knows how to handle the rain and always look good in the rain , and they set the standard right . You always feel bad . I mean , of course , if you don't care that much about looks , then it's a perfect place to live . It's very beautiful and you can go hiking a lot . But I care about looks and it affects my mood . So , yeah , nice , that's my little rant , yeah difficult rant on Bergen .
Speaker 2But we love the system .
Speaker 1But the rain is not fun .
Speaker 2Yes , I would recommend Oslo More and more Better .
Speaker 1Okay , so thank you very much , Amalie , for being the guest today .
Speaker 2Thank you for having me .
Speaker 1And I wish you only all the best in your future endeavors . Thank you , bye , bye .