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Most track records handed to you in a manager meeting were built in a world that no longer exists — falling rates, suppressed volatility, bonds that actually hedged equities. Does that history tell you anything useful about 2026? Or is it a museum exhibit dressed up as a roadmap?

Vincent and Saâd go at it properly. Vincent argues that pre-2020 data is actively misleading in many strategy categories. Saâd argues it's necessary context — and that throwing it out is its own analytical mistake. They work through the CTA counterexample, the 2020 vs. 2022 stress test distinction, the narrative coherence trap, and a genuinely hard case that the framework doesn't cleanly resolve.

No tidy conclusion. Just a sharper way to think about evidence that most manager evaluation processes are still over-weighting.