We Bet Ya

02: Time to Talk Price Fluctuations and Market Manipulation

• Allan Hillzinger • Season 1 • Episode 2

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Discover the secrets behind picking winners as your host, Allan Hilzinger, teams up with gambling guru and Chase Bet CEO, Damian Harris. This episode of 'We Bet Ya' is packed:

  • Celebrating a punter's multi-bet windfall 
  • Deciphering the impact of box draws and market movements 
  • Learn how to edge out the competition with our expert analysis of recent shifts in AFL and NRL odds
  • Get the exclusive scoop on the greyhounds that are setting the tracks ablaze


It's not all about luck; sometimes, it's about the strategy. 
We're pulling back the curtain on the enigmatic world of betting markets, where a greyhound's opening at astonishing odds raises eyebrows and questions. 

Listen in as we discuss the perplexing world of price fluctuations and the potential for market manipulation, offering you a playbook for navigating these anomalies. Join our compelling conversation that could change the way you wager.

Don't miss Damian's insider perspectives on staying one step ahead in the high-stakes game of professional gambling.

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Speaker 1:

Welcome to we Betcha, a betting podcast dedicated to providing comprehensive information, tips and education that will take your punting entertainment to another level. I'm your host, alan Hilsinger from Chasebet, sporting CEO, professional gambler, now bookmaker. Tune in as I unleash my sometimes unconventional approach and views on all the current sports and races. Chasebet encourages responsible gambling. Imagine what you could be buying instead For free and confidential support. Call 1-800-858-858 or visit gamblinghelponlineorgau. Alrighty gang, let's dive into it. Episode 2 of we Betcha, and just to give a little bit of context of what you can expect each and every week from this podcast, we're going to have five key areas we're going to talk about. First one is we're going to have a look at the week in review, celebrate the big winners, talk about the big movers, who are the sporting teams that have now changed prices to win the premierships. Who are the race horses, the greyhounds that have changed in future markets some of the big movers, some of the big bets that came off. We're then going to talk about our black bookers, our greyhound black bookers. These are the runners that have been heavily backed in the previous week, which we believe you need to add to your black book, and they're going to win. Very, very soon. We'll then move into our third topic, which is better betting, where we just share some tips around how you, as a punter, can read the form differently or just highlight some of the areas that you may want to consider when you are actually looking at the form which horses, dogs, which sporting teams you want to bet on. Then we're going to move into what I believe will become many people's favourite area and it's called hot gossip, where we cross over and we have a chat with Chase Bet founder and CEO, damian Harris, on some of the most let's not just call them controversial, but hot topics. And today we have an absolute doozy. We're going to be talking about the starting prices, or the opening prices, versing the starting prices of greyhound races that we've seen recently. Now, for those that don't know, there's been some very interesting price fluctuations in the greyhound world and we're going to get his thoughts as to how this happens, why this happens, what you can look out for as a punter to potentially take advantage of any of these let's call them in exclamation marks errors or mispricings and how he thinks this is going to affect the market moving forward. And then we're going to have a look at the week ahead. What are the big tips? What are the big things that are coming up? The sporting events, the racing events, the markets that Chase Bet have on offer and where you can find a few winners as we lead into a massive weekend of sport and racing.

Speaker 1:

So let's start the weekly review with our top tip stuff for the week, or top punter for the week. I should say shout out to our top punter. Obviously we can't share names, we have to have the privacy, but I will share each week what we believe are our top is our top punter or top punters and the bets that they had. So this punter had a $150 eight leg multi, meaning he needed all eight scenarios to happen to get a collect. Calton to win. Asako to score a tried anytime. Katawa to score a tried anytime. Tupo to score a tried anytime. Felt to score a tried anytime. Coach to score a tried anytime. Mariner to score at any time. And Tarava to score at any time, and all eight scenarios across eight different games happened to occur and landed Our number one punner for the week $22,483.79. Massive congratulations there to the person who happened to hit that.

Speaker 1:

A lot of other different results across the weekend. It was a real mixed bag in the NRL and the AFL. I think overall the punners definitely had the better of it in the NRL. Most of the heavily backed favorites, I think mainly would have been the heaviest back with Chasebett, particularly at the line plus two and a half, and as it was they went on to win the game anyway against the Roosters. Afl was probably a split decision. I think it was a 50-50 across the board. There was some games there that were a lot tighter than I think most punners expected, with a lot of the favorites being taken at the line, and overall was probably a real split between the two of us.

Speaker 1:

And it's an interesting one at this time of year with all of those different results. You're often seeing a few do'sies thrown in there. So what's it done to the market? That's probably the biggest question. What are some of these results from last week done to change the market? The biggest change I can see is in the AFL. Collingwood and Brisbane opened up $5.50 to start the season to win the Premiership. Both are now out to $9.00.

Speaker 1:

And certainly some questions being asked. It's only round two and there's plenty of season ahead and, as we know, both teams definitely have the capacity to turn it around very, very quickly and head back in towards favoritism, or even into favoritism at some point. Meanwhile, though, greater West Sydney $5.00 favorites, now Sydney $6.00, second favorites, and Carlton are into $8.00, third favorites. And then we've got a number of teams there at kind of the 10 through to $20 mark as well who are certainly in contention, while in the NRL, both Penrith and Brisbane stay there at the top of the market. Penrith just drifted a little bit. They're now $4.00, brisbane firm back a little bit into $4.20.

Speaker 1:

Biggest market mover by far and away, manly $26.00 into 13.00. Biggest question is going to be can Manley stay fit for the entire season, especially Tommy Turbo when it comes to state of origin? If they can stay fit, then that $13.00 probably still looks a little bit of value. They have to be a serious contender. If they have any injuries, then that $13.00 is probably under this point. The Rabbitos, meanwhile, they are out the gate. If you're a Rabbitos fan, you can get $17.00 about them to win the premiership, and I think, like Collingwood and Brisbane, they certainly have some of the players that could turn it around. Question is, are they going to turn it around quick enough While in racing? Now, what a ripper of a weekend it was with the All-Star Mile.

Speaker 1:

Pride of Jenny, how tough, seriously how tough. Pride of Jenny was definitely a losing result for us as a bookmaker. Pride of Jenny, mr Brightside they were the only two that the punters wanted. There was a lot of exotics between the two of them coming first and second. So well done to the punters finding Pride of Jenny Interesting to see the market there. Pride of Jenny is $3.80 now in the Australian Cup market for the futures, while Mr Brightside remains favourite at $2.80 after coming second. I don't think he lost too many admirers. Pride of Jenny obviously dictated kicked away. Mr Brightside gave a little bit too big a start. It's still how do you question a horse of Mr Brightside's calibre, absolute superstar and will no doubt be right there in the Australian Cup as well and deservedly. Still a total of 80 favourite.

Speaker 1:

Zugaccia was a strip out for the bookmakers, particularly us with Chase Bet. They wanted to back Zugaccia early, they wanted to back Zugaccia late and he literally said to us I gotcha too good, $3.20. Democracy manifest there was some good bets landed on democracy manifest as well, and in the Dubbo Greyhound country classic Bella Oona was a not a surprise winner but certainly was unwanted. In the betting there was plenty of money for a couple of the favourites and Bella Oona was certainly a result for Chase Bet. Across the whole weekend Again, real split decision. There was some races there throughout the weekend. Outside of the big races that saw some of the favourites get the cash, there was others that saw some real upsets and I think if you were someone that was backing the favourites, you'd probably finished up close to break even. It was a very tight decision for us and certainly interesting to see where some of these runners now go. Golden Slipper and we'll talk about that a little bit later coming up this weekend, so looking forward to it, my favourite part of the podcast, the black bookers and this is something that really gives you, the listener, an insight into Chase Bet late money movers Often people see the movers that have been moving from early in the markets.

Speaker 1:

They opened up $6, started $3. It could be because they opened up the wrong price, it could be because of the money, but these ones are the dogs that have backed heavily and late in betting. And not only have they backed heavily and late, they're dogs that I view as worth following in the future that they're going to win races very, very soon, if not the next start. Continue to follow them and I've got no doubt that you'll be backing a winner very, very soon. So the first one each week. I'll give them three stars or value. So I'm looking at either giving you guys dogs that you absolutely have to follow or dogs that are potentially going to pop up at decent odds in the near future. I've got two, three stars for you. The first one's in Melbourne and it's Briley Riot Maiden Dog has had one start. Ren Second was heavily, heavily backed late. No doubt has ability worth following. The other one is in Queensland and it's Messi in heaven, not a Maiden Dog. However, when I say it was backed off the map late, it was backed off the map late. Every sharp pun. I wanted to come for this dog late and was an absolute moral beaten. It will be winning a race very, very soon. I would expect it wins its next start, wherever it pops up. The three that I have for you at odds are all Melbourne dogs, all Maiden dogs. Keep an eye out for them Big Jim, baby Time and Finis Bale. Good money for them, at fairly decent prices as well, in each of their starts, so watch them. I think you'll probably get a little bit of value about each of those as well.

Speaker 1:

The we Bet your podcast is proudly brought to you by ChaseBit. For a comprehensive betting experience, download the ChaseBit app today. Think is this a bet you really want to place? For free and confidential support, call 1-800-858-858 or visit gamblinghelponlineorgau. Okay, better betting time.

Speaker 1:

Now I don't want to say that too many times, too fast. In our better betting section, we are going to look at what professional gamblers call edges. Each week we'll have a different focus on a different edge. Some weeks we may even incorporate some professional gamblers, and we're currently having a chat with a few professional gamblers to come on the show and give you an even greater insight into what they think, what they look for, how they come up with their selections, pricing, all of those different things. Now, of course, this section is not designed to turn everyone into a professional gambler. This is designed to help you just have an insight into a professional gambler, give you a little bit of an extra edge so you can take your punting entertainment to another level of entertainment as well.

Speaker 1:

So today, what we're going to talk about for me, as many know, I love the Greyhounds. I've professionally gambled on the Greyhounds for a significant period of time. So, from in different weeks, I will also be giving my own insights into what I look for. So, to start with the Greyhounds, I'm just going to talk about box draws. Now there's two factors that I want to talk about here which are often not ignored but certainly not factored in as much as I believe they should be.

Speaker 1:

The first one with box draws is when a dog moves from one side of the track to the other. So I will always and myself I love looking at if a dog performs from that particular area. Does the dog like to be inside or outside? And you can do that. Many, many form guides will show you their overall statistics of box one, box two, box three, etc. All the way through to box eight. Now if a dog has a poor win percentage or win and place percentage on outside boxes and all of a sudden it comes back into an inside box, I will wait that significantly more. And vice versa. Don't think that every dog wants to have the inside either. There's dogs that you look at and they might have five stars from box one and never of one. Six stars from box two and never of one. But when they've gone out into boxes six, seven, eight they do have some wins they're always looking at the box draws. I'm looking not just at the box they have but their overall record in those boxes. Now when I see a dog shift from having had three or four times the boxes that they don't necessarily perform as well as well from out to a box or into a box that they do perform well on, then I will wait that a lot more.

Speaker 1:

Now the second factor in the boxes is vacant boxes. This is something that I just cannot believe. How often it's not taken into account. When you have a dog who has a vacant box next to it, be that through a scratching, be that because of the box draw, you have to wait that significantly and I say significantly in the sense that this is greyhound racing when those dogs come out of the boxes. That's that in the first 20, 30, 40 meters is when a lot of dogs can come undone. Now if you're drawn box let's say box four and you have a vacant box in box three and you're a dog that likes the inside, that's a huge advantage in my eyes. If it's, you've got a vacant box in box five and you like to move to the outside, that's a huge advantage.

Speaker 1:

Now, dogs that have double vacant boxes due to scratching, due to the vacant boxes To me that is something that you must, must, must. Wait a lot more than if it's just the one vacant box as well, because that dog is going to have every possible chance in the first 40, 50 meters to get into a position that it wants to be in and go on to win. So, in my eyes, make sure you're not just glazing over and looking at a dog and saying, oh, look, it's one, it's last four starts, but it's one, it's last four starts from boxes one, one, two, one, and now it's drawn box six. That's the type of dog that you can look at and go well, you know what a lot harder tonight in box six. So let's see what else we can find to win. And vice versa. If you're looking at a dog that's run fifth, sixth, seventh, but it's had boxes six, five, seven, and in the past it's one from boxes one and two, and now it's back into box one or into box two, make sure you don't ignore that dog. Look at it, go back, have a look and you can go through everything. These days there's so much information online. You can go back and find the the races that it actually won from. You can have a look at that replay. You can see how it runs. So that's my tip for you guys is, when you're doing your dog form, when you're having a look at Greyhounds, don't ignore the previous box draws and the current box draw and definitely, definitely do not ignore when a dog has a vacant box next to it.

Speaker 1:

Alrighty, let's head over to the bookies desk. This is one of what I expect to be our listeners favorite topics called hot gossip, and we've got a doozy to start. I'm just going to give a little bit of background here and then I'm going to fire the tough questions at founder and CEO of Chase Bet, damien Harris and, for those that don't know, damien Damien is a second generation bookmaker who has spent many, many, many long hours in some of the biggest trade rooms in Australia. He's seen some of the biggest rorts, he's seen some of the biggest plungers come off, and we're going to talk about different topic each week, but I'm going to mention a few names here. Get to Ignite, blue Sky, magic Luxa, picture Francis Teresa Goldsbright, miss.

Speaker 1:

What are these dogs having common? They're from the same litter, which happens to be a litter that has been opening up at prices from five through to $9. And most of them are starting long odds on $1.50, $1.30, $1.70. How is this possibly happening and we've got more examples of this and I'm gonna fire this straight at you, domo How's that possible? How does a dog open up at $9 and start $1.50? How does a dog open up at $5.50 and start $1.30?

Speaker 2:

Well, al, we've got two options here. One, the traders just have no idea on how to assess a market, or two, which I'm probably leaning towards, is that this is more a targeted approach to mislead the market, and benefit.

Speaker 1:

Let's jump into the first one first, then Domo, because in this day and age, is it realistic to think that traders could get it so wrong so many times On the same litter, the same dogs, maiden races, first starters. Are traders seriously willing to put that level of liability and yes, I know that the company they work for is large, significant, all the rest of it Can they seriously? Could they seriously get it that wrong? Do you genuinely believe they could get it that wrong?

Speaker 2:

Look, everyone can make a mistake once, al but once you make a mistake more than once, it's intentional.

Speaker 1:

And that, if certainly feels that way, it smells off, doesn't it?

Speaker 2:

It smells off it doesn't pass the pub test.

Speaker 1:

as far as I'm concerned, no, and I know you've had a lot of conversations with different people when you're at the track last week certainly highlighting that to you. So the alternative option is that it's done with a level of intent. Why? Why would they do that with a level of intent? Why would anyone intentionally put up markets incorrect?

Speaker 2:

Well, I think it's to intentionally profit off the markets. They're trying to influence the markets and obviously the bigger the bookmaker, the bigger the influence they have on the overall market. Not everyone's like Chasebeth that understands that these first starters are out of a good lit up and have been trialling sensationally on the Northern Rivers. But no one should be opening first starters from well-established camps at silly prices. Like you know we're gonna. We'll move on to another examples at a double on a Monday meeting. That Maiden's just that opened ridiculous process.

Speaker 1:

Well, it was Monday. Let's talk about that because I think it all ties in. So last Monday or Monday week ago, we had a dog in the what I would consider the biggest, strongest camp, particularly around Maiden's in the Central West. Opens $8.50. Starts at $1.50.

Speaker 2:

Look, I've spoken to big and small punters, a lot excellent form analysts, and they're shaking their heads. They're going in what world should this dog open up past $3? Now we bet $3, which I still think so was. You know, the dog run fourth, but that's irrelevant. It started at $1.50. We were still 33% out on our pricing. Now, any bookmaker that consistently does that will not be winning.

Speaker 1:

So why I still need and I think that the listeners really wanna get their heads around this too Damo. So understanding how it works is this and we're not saying it is or it isn't, but there's. I'm listening to you and there's only two real scenarios. This is happening for self-benefit, so somebody is doing something very, very wrong in these organizations and no one's called them out, no one's investigated, no one's looked into it.

Speaker 2:

Well, not that we know of. There should be internal investigations. Yeah, and you're right, yeah.

Speaker 1:

I shouldn't say that it hasn't been done, so we don't know if there's been internal investigations and this is going to change, but we certainly know it's been going on for longer than one or two occasions that we know of. Or is this part of a bigger plan, with larger organizations putting up their pricing? Other organizations then take that feed, so the price goes up at, let's say, $8.50. Other organizations then open up their price from what we call the price feed at $8.50. And then that price is quickly being taken. Is there a greater picture here as well? That's impacting your second level of bookmakers. Well, let's call them your second level in size terms. I think these days they're starting to become certainly as competitive, if not more competitive, as we know from our own pricing. Is there more to it? Well, and what can be done about it? Where does it go from here? How do they actually start highlighting this? How can the punter feel confident?

Speaker 2:

Well, I think this opens up a very big gray area, because one of the major competitors in this industry is not forced to bet minimum bet limits. The joke they can put up any price and refuse to take a bet.

Speaker 1:

So in effect, they could put up a price, somebody could come and back it. They could say, no, we're not gonna back it, but meanwhile other bookmakers who have taken that price feed are betting that price and are forced to have to bet to the minimum bet limits, correct?

Speaker 2:

Wow, so Is there fairness in the wagering market when it's dominated by not necessarily dominated, but severe influence, and they're not under the same set of rules as online bookmakers.

Speaker 1:

It's an interesting conversation, so where does it go from here, damo? What does this mean for the punter? Will it affect the future pricing?

Speaker 2:

What should?

Speaker 1:

they be doing Like where does this go?

Speaker 2:

Look clearly. Punters have got to be quick to obtain these exorbitant prices, but I think it's possibly a good thing, also in the market, that they're making mistakes. Chase Betton, capitalise on these mistakes also, but we'll also have other opinions within these races.

Speaker 1:

So there for some of these other. If you like something else in the race, then there's a chance you're going to get an even better price. Particularly if Chase Betton's taken a bet on one of these dogs, then you're going to likely get a better price about something else. So it's a hot topic though, damo, and what's the long-term impact of this? Is this going to see more bookmakers putting up prices at later times? Is it going to see more bookmakers putting up their own prices, or what's the long-term impact here?

Speaker 2:

I think what is going to happen is prices are going to continually go up later and later, which gives the punter less opportunity to find an error, like here at Chase Betton. On all our meetings we're looking to ensure that we're up four hours before the first, so that service is there. Price feeds we make errors. No one's perfect. That's part of the game.

Speaker 1:

And I think, moving forward in talking about as we're this topic, a little bit talking about Greyhound pricing, we'll kind of divert a little bit there. Damo, looking at pricing, can you just give the listeners a quick understanding of why Chase Bet, why you can often find a better price on Chase Bet than most of our competitors in different races as well, and not that every dog in the race is a better price. But why can you be looking at a race sometimes and see maybe one or two runners might be slightly less odds with Chase Bet, but then four runners are much better odds with Chase Bet?

Speaker 2:

I think the key is we trade to the market. Now we react to smart players and we've got some smart players that bet with us Australia line. So we want to use that intel to shape our markets. So if we're going to be betting better, there's a reason we're betting better. We either don't like the dog or the market's telling us that we shouldn't like the dog.

Speaker 1:

And that's a lot more traditional, right, damo? It's a lot of the companies now, a lot of the bookmakers now it's all automated. Everyone's kind of betting virtually the same price.

Speaker 2:

However, and that's the key in our trading, in our trading races. Not just me now, that's trading, there's a whole team trading. But my mantra is I want to be competitive, the first two in the market, always, unless professionals on it. You know. That's the only reason we won't be betting. The market is, someone smart is on it. We don't trade the liability here. We trade to the correct price and the correct information.

Speaker 1:

Which leaves a great opportunity for punters to take advantage of great pricing if they like a runner with Chase Bet. Always worth checking it out. Daymo, massive thank you. I'm looking forward to these every single week. You touched on MBLs. That's going to be one of our topics. There's a whole bunch of topics that we're talking about and, as we've said, they're called hot gossip. We certainly hope that they stimulate some conversation out there and positive change for the wagering industry so that the punter gets a fair go. So the bookmakers continue to offer great pricing and great servicing and everyone is able to keep moving forward in a really positive way. Thanks so much, mate.

Speaker 2:

Cheers, no problemo.

Speaker 1:

Looking at the weekend ahead, if you cannot get excited about racing and sport then I don't know. You definitely shouldn't be listening to this podcast, that's for sure. What a weekend we have with the Golden Slipper Definitely the feature on an amazing racing card on Saturday. Storm Boy, the big question, the big name on everyone's lips. One what price will he start? He's in Black Odds. I would anticipate he probably starts Black Odds. Still, there's plenty of punters that want to tell you that he's unbeatable. There's plenty of bookmakers that want to tell you that he's too short for a Golden Slipper and I love that different viewpoint. We know Damian Harris, our CEO, loves to take on a favorite and his own words, golden Slipper favorite. No happy to take it on. So let's see what happens there. With Storm Boy, you'll no doubt get some great Odds there. With Chase Bet Imperatriz. In the William Reid, we've got the Galaxy. We've got just great cards all across from Mooney Valley through to Rose Hill. We've got Eagle Farm, morpherville and Ascot Great cards.

Speaker 1:

We then have a look at the sports, and Penrith versus Brisbane is a really, really interesting one. Penrith are $1.25 at the moment, lines 10.5. Now I know we've got a few players in question. A few player changes, a few players out. 10.5 to me seems extremely generous for Brisbane. I'm not sure Penrith are necessarily at the point of domination that they have been. Brisbane will have a point to prove. So I'm happy to stick with Brisbane at 10.5. I think that's nice value there. Not sure if they're necessarily going to win, but I think it's going to be a lot closer than some of the markets are currently indicating.

Speaker 1:

Para Manley is the other game. Manley at $1.98. If they play the way that they've played in the first two weeks they are going to be extremely dangerous. Yes, para Matter are playing at home. Yes, para Matter are also playing well, but for mine, manley at $1.98. I'd be surprised if they don't potentially even start favourites for that game. Whole card is fantastic.

Speaker 1:

These are the rounds that are really, really interesting. Teams that have lost two games, that are needing to get a win, teams that are started hotter than what most expect. Are they going to continue on with it? Love, love, love. This time of year, with the AFL and the NRL In the AFL, sincuiter and Collingwood no doubt the marquee matchup this week, collingwood can they bounce back? How are they going to react after what I would consider a flogging at the hands of Sydney, and that was at home. So now going and playing Sincuiter, can they bounce back? Where are they going to be after this round? A lot of favourites in the AFL this week. A lot of short price favourites. It'd be interesting to see some of the lines. I don't think all of the favourites are necessarily going to have it as easy as what they may appear in the pricing and on paper early on. Great round of footy coming up.

Speaker 1:

Other sport that we've got let's not forget about the MBL. Mbl finals are on Tassie Friday night, looking to level up one all against Melbourne. They're $1.80. Melbourne are $2. Melbourne were definitely too good at home for Tassie. In game one, however, we have seen that Tassie are extremely, extremely strong, especially at home. So looking forward to seeing that game. Australia versus Lebanon. Australia short price favourites to win that qualifier.

Speaker 1:

Plenty of other markets there the Unders and Overs, their same game, multis, any time goals scorers, first goal scorers. So a lot of markets there to pique your interest. And March Madness let's not forget about March Madness. The basketball fans out there, the American College basketball. It's an extremely popular sport. We know with Chase Bet we have bets on the college basketball every single day. We have some great options there. Throughout every game we will be betting on. Every game you'll be able to bet on a head-to-head, on the line, unders and Overs. So if you're interested in the basketball that kicks off this weekend and it's going to be an absolute ripper I'm looking forward to it.

Speaker 1:

I'm not too sure how much sleep I'm going to get over the next week with all of this sport, all of this racing, but it's exciting. It's a great time of year. Thanks again, guys. We look forward to bringing you another exciting podcast next week. Thanks for joining us on the we Bet your Pod. Please follow the show so you don't miss a thing. If you know a mate that needs to hear this episode, make sure you share this episode with them too. Rating and reviewing the show makes a big difference and I really respect the time and energy that takes. In return, I can guarantee I'll be showing up every single week with another action packed episode. Chasebed encourages responsible gambling. Imagine what you could be buying instead. For free and confidential support, call 1-800-858-858 or visit gamblinghelponlineorgau.