We Bet Ya

04: April Launches With a Flurry of Jabs!

• Allan Hillzinger • Season 1 • Episode 4

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This week on the We Bet Ya Podcast, prepare to be blindsided by the exhilarating world of sports betting as Ryan "the Pilot" Freedman and host  Alan Hilzinger dissect the past week of stunning upsets and intriguing wagers.

They discuss the twists and turns of:

  • Tim Tszyu's literal clash and how the weekend of boxing shaped up
  • The pulse of the AFL and NRL seasons (the underdogs and giants alike)
  • Mixed bag of racing results for punters 
  • And many more...

Unveiling the bets that set last weeks odds markets on fire: From Jeremy Cameron's miss to the resurgent Collingwood - they recount the gambles that had punters gripping their seats.


Strap in for :

  • A review of a big day of Saturday racing featuring the Doncaster & AJC Derby
  • The Golden Easter Egg
  • Sizeable bets already placed on the AFL & NRL 
  • The fast-paced action of the EPL and a three-leg multi special
  • Even a Celtic FC supporter's heart thrown into the mix as "The Pilot" suggests Rangers are a good bet. 

Strategizing over early and late bets, they've got the insider information to help turn the tables in your favour. 

The segment with Damien Harris, the mastermind of Chasebet Trading, provide's another exclusive look at the intricacies of independent bookmaking and he talks about "the Elephant in the room";  that being why nine independent smaller online wagering companies have closed in 2024 and how the market dynamics have and are likely to impact punters. 

Gain insights from our chat  —where the importance of community support is as paramount as a wise bet.  This week will not disappoint as the boys pull no punches in sharing their thoughts and views.

Connect With Us:

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Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/chasebet.com.au

Thank you for tuning in to the We Bet Ya podcast! To ensure you never miss an episode, hit that subscribe button and remember to leave us a like, review, rating and pass the pod along to anyone you know who needs to hear these updates and information. Your support matters to us and we show that by creating more up to date tips and information for all your betting needs.

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Speaker 1:

Welcome to we Betcha, a betting podcast dedicated to providing comprehensive information, tips and education that will take your punting entertainment to another level. I'm your host, alan Hilzinger from Chasebet, sporting CEO, professional gambler and now bookmaker. Ceo, professional gambler and now bookmaker. Tune in as I unleash my sometimes unconventional approach and views on all the current sports and racing. Excited to launch episode number four of we Bet your Podcast and joining me again back by popular demand. I didn't know whether this would happen. And joining me again back by popular demand, I didn't know whether this would happen. Ryan the pilot, friedman, he is back again. How are you champion?

Speaker 2:

Yeah, very well, thanks Al. How about yourself this fine?

Speaker 1:

week. Really good, mate, really good. So let's crack straight into it. Last week, what a ripper of a weekend. There was sports racing. It didn't stop all weekend over Easter. What were the highlights? Let's start with some of the bigger bets. What were some of the bigger bets that Chase Bet took and how did they go? I know there was a real mixed bag of winners and losers.

Speaker 2:

Yeah well, I mean ultimately, probably some of the bigger bets were actually on the boxing with Tim Zhu on the weekends. That was certainly worth discussing as well and ultimately, as we all know, he was rolled with that cut on the head. I mean all credit to Sebastian Fundora.

Speaker 1:

He'd done what he had to do, but yeah, what were some of the biggest bets we took on Tim Zhu?

Speaker 2:

Yeah, well, we took a bet of $5,000 at $1.20. And then we took a number of other bets when he shortened up to $1.18 and a couple of thousand-dollar marks. So, yeah, we actually had a lot of interest on the fight card, which was really really good to see. But yeah, very disappointing about Tim Diabolical card. I'm sure that he would have blasted Fundora out of there if he obviously didn't obtain that.

Speaker 1:

So the palliative rematch is on the card, so let's hope Do you think the betting will be as sparse in the pricing, like $1.20,? What was it about $4 for Fundora, $4.75.

Speaker 2:

Yeah, $4.75 was Fundora and I think, look, if the pricing does come out, my recommendation is punters, jump on it straight away, because I don't think it'll be there at fight start.

Speaker 1:

Fair enough, and there were a few multis and all those kinds of things as well with zoo, which obviously went astray. Were there any big bets the other way?

Speaker 2:

Were there any big winners on the boxing? Well, actually, yeah, there was. We actually had some decent bets on Arizona Lara, but he was short, once again as part of multis, so it was included in a lot of multis. Yeah, we actually had some bets on another one of the undercard fights as well. It might have been Romero versus Cruz. Yeah, it was. Yeah, pitbulls fight, so just have a look here. Yeah, so we held, you know, some $1,000 bets on that particular fight too. So, look, boxing was a fantastic, fantastic day of action. And, yeah, certainly the punters certainly, you know, were drawn to that fight card.

Speaker 1:

That's for sure, mate. What else we had? The AFL and the NRL. They were again, as we've been seeing all season, long in both a few unexpected results and a few favourites. That did it probably even easier than what a lot expected. What's the changes there? What big bets do we have? Take all the listeners through. Let's start with the AFL.

Speaker 2:

Yeah, okay. Well, collingwood showed that they still had some teeth left and defeated the Brisbane Lions by 20 points, which is obviously good for a lot of the Collingwood fans. Gws remain on top of the table with a 58-point win over the West Coast in Perth, which was very good, just like here. Look how Just like living in South Australia the power blacked out, losing by seven points. Geelong Cats were excellent. In fact, that's one of the big bets and I feel for this punter. We had quite a large bet on Jeremy Cameron to kick three goals with four marks and in the last quarter he got the ball five metres out and decided to handball it to Tommy Hawkins for his memorandum game and cost his punter a large sum of money. So I do feel for that guy, that's for sure. But no big bets. Yeah, we took 4K on Geelong to win and over 156.5 points and obviously that was successful. And yeah, we took some other big bets throughout the weekend as well, like on Fremantle and stuff like that against.

Speaker 1:

Adelaide Any big movement in the overall premiership mate? Have we seen teams go up and down Collingwood obviously getting that win and being on the board. Has that changed anything? Obviously the Brisbane Lions. They're very, very vulnerable right now after opening up as one of the equal favourites with Collingwood.

Speaker 2:

Yeah, Brisbane Lions are out the gate to $12 now. Collingwood now firm back into $9 after they defeated the Brisbane Lions on the weekend.

Speaker 1:

And they were $12 last week. Is that right, Ron?

Speaker 2:

They were $12 last week, so once again shortened back up. Carlton continue to firm into $7. Now clear third line of betting GWS on top of the ladder and at $5, in front of Sydney at $6, who were disappointing once again at the MCG continue to fail.

Speaker 1:

So Sydney were they $5.50, I think off memory last week. So they've only drifted back out to $6 despite that loss.

Speaker 2:

Yeah, and that's a surprise, but that's just the way that the market's obviously working currently. And yeah, look $6 to me about a side that there's still question marks on how they travel. A lot of things you know is unders in my opinion.

Speaker 1:

Port Adelaide. What about Port Adelaide mate With their loss as well? Has that impacted them? They were right there in contention for the premiership and in betting as well.

Speaker 2:

They're still at $12. Port Adelaide, geelong are also just tightening up from $17s into $13 and Freeman are at $18. But yeah, look, port Adelaide, I think you'll find they're going to hover around that sort of 5th, 6th line of betting, as they have done for the last couple of years. And look, although they lost to Melbourne, I don't think there's. There wasn't much between the two sides, to be perfectly honest with.

Speaker 1:

Well, let's kind of mix this up this week In the past we've been doing last week and then next week and kind of changing that up. Let's just have a look at the AFL next week while we're on the AFL, if that's okay, Ryan. What's coming up, what are the big bets that have already taken place and what are the punters in for this weekend with the AFL?

Speaker 2:

Yeah, okay, we actually have already taken some really good bets on this. This is the South Australian round for everyone that is out there listening, so all games are to be played in South Australia, as a reminder, and we actually have taken some really good bets on Adelaide to defeat Melbourne. So Adelaide currently at $2.41. We actually have taken bets at $2.25. But once again, we have to obviously stand up and be competitive with our competitors and we've been forced to drift Adelaide out, despite those good wages. They're now at $2.40. Wow, so that's really bad.

Speaker 1:

What's the line there, Ryan? It sounds like if punters are coming in and a little bit of what you would probably call smart money at $2.25, the line might be a smart bet. What's the line at the?

Speaker 2:

moment, absolutely yeah. The line is currently at $8.50. So you can get $1.90, $8.50 for Adelaide. So plus $8.50 Adelaide, minus $8.50 Melbourne. But yeah, we have had some sharp money on Adelaide to defeat Melbourne.

Speaker 1:

People may be believing that it's hard for Melbourne to. This is a game for them that will, I think, determine a lot of their season as well. Mate, what other games have we got of note?

Speaker 2:

Well, the feature games. We haven't seen much action at the moment, like Bulldogs v Cats, richmond v St Kilda. We have actually taken a good amount of bets at Collingwood at the line against Hawthorne at minus 23.5. So we have seen some money on Collingwood, but the other one that we have seen some money on is Brisbane to finally get back on the winner's board with a strong win over North Melbourne. We've seen a couple of four-figure bets with Brisbane Lions to defeat North Melbourne at minus 35.5.

Speaker 1:

So at the line minus 35.5.

Speaker 2:

Yeah, at the line Head-to-head. There's not much value there at $1.13 Brisbane Lions. But yeah, we've taken some really good bets at the line at minus 35.5.

Speaker 1:

I suppose the big question there is if Brisbane do find their let's call it their true form or what many would have thought on paper would be an extremely tough team. If they can find that form, then 35.5 probably is certainly not insurmountable on their recent form. You certainly have to be questioning that.

Speaker 2:

Yeah, absolutely yeah. Couldn't agree more with that answer. To be perfectly honest with you, mate, yeah, brisbane, you know, at their best, should clearly take care of North Melbourne. It ultimately is they have to reach it, and they have to reach it soon, because otherwise the season is going to slip away from them?

Speaker 1:

Yeah, definitely, mate. So switching to the NRL, our other form of football that is extremely popular. I mean, there's plenty of forms of football, but the other one that's extremely popular right now is the rugby league, the NRL Last week. Take us through a few of the bigger bets, the bigger games, the lucky winners, the unlucky winners. Whatever you got for us, mate.

Speaker 2:

Yeah, so last week was interesting. We took a range of bets actually largest style bets, as you know. We actually mentioned a couple of them last week on last week's podcast. But yeah, we continued to see money for Gold Coast Titans right up until kickoff. It would have been a horrible result for us if the Titans had beaten the Dolphins but luckily the Dolphins got us out of that trouble. We ultimately got absolutely buried with a $5,000 bet on the Warriors versus the Knights. That really hurt. One of the interesting games was in a game that we actually thought we probably would have won on, being Parramatta versus West Tigers. We actually took a bet right near the death of 4,000 at West Tigers to defeat Parramatta and ultimately they got the biggies. So we probably broke even on the Chase, probably broke even on the rugby last week, but ultimately it was a very touchy go there for a while.

Speaker 1:

Yeah, mate, there were interesting results there too. The Tigers are they. Do you think they're genuine or is this just a blip at the moment, playing off energy, playing off the underdog tag, and do you think, as they win a few more games that we're going to see, do you think they'll sustain that? Or are we in for a little bit of a crash, because I dare say they're almost going to be favourites in a couple of games, coming up as well right against a few of these teams that are really struggling early.

Speaker 2:

Well, I think they're lapping up the attention. To be honest with you, because I don't think they've had this much attention since Benji Marshall last went to court.

Speaker 1:

To be honest with you, because I don't think they've had this much attention since Benji Marshall last went to court and the boys at the Westlife podcast. They've come on board with Chase Bett as well and we're working with them. So big shout out to those boys and I'm sure we'll come to love the West Tigers working with them. Mate anything this week. Let's start with the changes first, in the premiership market. Have we seen any big movers? What are the Tigers now? Has anyone actually backed them and what price are they?

Speaker 2:

So currently in the futures market. So Penrith Panthers remain obviously strong favourites at $3.50 after their terrific win against the Roosters last week, despite being the outsiders in that game, which was interesting.

Speaker 1:

We talked about that, didn't we? We talked about the class across the board and how the Panthers at the line was probably a great bet. Well, forget about at the line, it was head-to-head in the end, even better.

Speaker 2:

Yeah, absolutely Well, the West Tigers. If you are part of the West Tigers fan base and have joined Chase Bet $67, you can get on the West Tigers winning the flag this year. But ultimately the Panthers at $3.50, Brisbane Broncos $4.20, the Brewsters at $8, melbourne Storm $8.50, the Cowboys a little bit easy at the $15, after getting absolutely hammered by the Bucking Broncos on the weekend.

Speaker 1:

Disappointing, wasn't it? That was quite disappointing, I thought, From a rugby league fan point of view. I thought the Cowboys were extremely disappointing.

Speaker 2:

They were absolutely shocking and, as I did touch on, like the Dolphins got us out of the bit of the crapper last week, the Dolphins have been absolutely hammered this week. We've taken a bet. I can just tell you right now here live only just recently taken a bet of 5,000 on the Dolphins to beat the West Tigers at minus three and a half.

Speaker 1:

Wow, that's going to be a good game, isn't it? It's like two of the teams that have had question marks coming in. People were wondering are they going to be any good this season? Are the Dolphins going to back up some of the form they had last year? Are they going to? You've seen those new teams come in and get off to a bit of an energetic start and then the following season struggle, but mate. Their form is strong and obviously the Tigers have gone, as you said, on the back of Benji and some energy and lapping up the attention. They're really starting to come into their own. So, looking forward to that game. I definitely would not have said at the start of the season that coming into this round, that the Dolphins-Tigers would be one of the more intriguing games of the round.

Speaker 2:

Yeah, absolutely Crazy, thought it is, and probably one of the other big games to touch on for this week would be Manly Penrith. That's going to be an absolute cracker.

Speaker 1:

Manly were disappointing. As you know, I'm a Manly supporter and, yeah, well, we took. That's the other one we took, didn't we? We took a very, very large bet, actually a five-figure bet, on St George to beat Manly, sorry, on Manly to beat St George last week Manly to beat St George last week At $1.35, we did.

Speaker 2:

Yeah, we took a $10,000 bet You're right.

Speaker 1:

That was one of the ones for me where, as a ardent Manly supporter ever since I was four years old not sure I should share that publicly was torn because obviously, with Chase Bet, we were cheering on the Dragons. However, my heart always continues to cheer on Manly. They were disappointing. Do you think they can bounce back to cheer on Manly they were disappointing. Do you think they can bounce back?

Speaker 2:

And what's the line there, mate? Well, just to reiterate, yeah, we have taken that bet of. I'll just tell you here, we've taken two $2,000 bets on the over-under markets of Manly versus Penrith at under 40.5. So they've actually gone for the unders there in that game. And Manly.

Speaker 1:

Do you think weather comes into that at all, mate? Is that something Absolutely? And saying, hey, we can get ahead of the weather forecast and potentially it's a lot harder to score, obviously, in that kind of weather? Or is that something that you usually see from the smart punters?

Speaker 2:

I think that is incredibly sharp by these punters, obviously seeing that a deluge of rains is going to be coming, and they've jumped on straight away when they've seen the line at that. So you know, we are expecting anywhere between 100 to 200 mil on the East Coast this week. So over the next few days, shall I say and yeah, it could ultimately hinder that game in particular, under $40,500 looks like a very good bet. So we've taken two $2,000 bets in that game Head-to-head $235,000 manly, $160,000 Penrith, the 160 Penrith, the line's three and a half, mate, going to be an absolute cracker, racing-wise, racing-wise.

Speaker 1:

look at that. Listening to live bets coming through from you, even as we record this podcast. Absolutely love it, mate, for anyone that can hear those beeps going through. That is Ryan, hearing some of the sharp punters coming in and having bets. If any of them are sports bets, I'm sure he will share with them or even early racing. But, mate, last week in the racing, what was the overall result? Was it a good day for the punters? Was it a good day for the bookmakers? And what have we got to look forward to?

Speaker 2:

Now, look, I've got to be honest and say it was a good day for the bookmakers on Saturday. I'm going to put my hand up, but ultimately it was largely due to our result in the Australian Cup because ultimately, being one of the feature events, we actually held obviously quite a good amount of money in the race and unfortunately for me, because I lost my money on a tissue. Running third but Cascadian, a nine-year-old winning the Australian Cup once again making it back-to-back terrific effort and yeah happened to just get there and knock off Prada Jenny, who actually ran tremendous. Again, I've got to be honest, it was a terrific race.

Speaker 1:

Yeah, it was fantastic, wasn't it? What do you think of Mr Brightside?

Speaker 2:

I think they'll be looking for a new jockey.

Speaker 1:

Do you think it's just been up for too long? I mean, obviously they're athletes and you can, only you can't run at your ultimate every single week. Where do they go now? Do they keep Mr Brightside up or go away now and come back in the spring fresh, or what do you think is going to happen there?

Speaker 2:

Well, they've got a choice, haven't they? They've got a choice whether they continue on to the Queen Elizabeth or not. I think, personally, after the weekend's effort, I think they'll still go to the Queen Elizabeth. My opinion is, I think they should just tip it out and focus on the spring again. But I don't think we'll see that. I think we will see Mr Brightside again going to Sydney, maybe you know. I mean, ultimately he did win the Don Car, so that's how he announced himself a couple of years ago. He won't be in it this week and it looks like they'll save him for the Queen Elizabeth, but I hope they tip him out.

Speaker 1:

I'm with you, I think, from a racing point of view, getting fresh, bringing back for the spring and hopefully we see the absolute best of him, Mate, this week coming. The one that intrigues me and I know there's a number of great races and you mentioned the Doncaster coming up. Just before you dive into a couple of those races Storm Boy, Storm Boy. We talked about Storm Boy being potentially a very, very good thing beaten in the slipper, and how the slipper is traditionally let's call it a favourite's graveyard or has regularly become a favourite's graveyard. Storm Boy, any money early, Does Storm Boy bounce back? What price have we got Storm Boy and what's your own personal view?

Speaker 2:

Okay, so Storm Boy is currently at $2.50. Lady of Camelot is where the money is. With Chase Bet we have taken literally as soon as Lady of Camelot won, two days after we started taking in bets for the English, and the money has continued to come for Lady of Camelot $6.50 into $4. Lady of Camelot, clear second pick next to Storm Boy, who does remain favourite at $2.50, but the money's dried up and all the money has come for the Yellow Silks of Gay Waterhouse and the Golden Slipper winner, Lady of Camelot.

Speaker 1:

Yeah, I'm intrigued by this race. I'm looking forward to it. So, the Doncaster mate, let's switch to that. It's a race that often throws up some nice value. There's always well, as you mentioned before, mr Brightside the odd star emerges out of the Doncaster, I shouldn't say the odd star. Many a star emerges out of the Doncaster, be that as a winner or be that as a great runner. What's the market look like there and what are we expecting? Like you mentioned before, there's this massive rain predicted. Is that going to change the market? Are we going to see some smart money coming in? What are we expecting?

Speaker 2:

Well, this is Democracy Manifest, Another wheel. Another wheel is where all the rage is at, alan, absolutely all the rage. We have not stopped taking bets on another wheel. All week it actually got out to $4.20. Earlier today I can tell you it's now at $3.70. So it out to 420, back to 380, back to 420, as we ultimately do try to be competitive, as we touched on earlier, back to 370. Now in Otherwheel, absolute raving favourite 50 kilos. Jamie Carr, kieran Marr trains it Down low on the weights. The awkward barrier is probably the question mark. But yeah, after last week's absolute demolition job from another wheel, it's a deserved favourite in this year's Doncaster, that's for sure.

Speaker 1:

What else have we got on this weekend? Racing-wise mate, A couple of races. Any other races you want to touch on there?

Speaker 2:

Yeah, well, look, arguably probably one of my favourite races across the entire year is the AJC. Australian Derby Always has been. You know you go through history and there's been so many of Australia's greatest ever racehorses have obviously won this event all the way back, you know, to the Barb and you know you've got a Farlap In race recent times. Some of the winners that I can remember are Octagonals fantastic win, you know. Deferty, white, saintly, nothing like a day in Volante. You had Starcraft not long ago. The list goes on and on and on. Absolute, tremendous race and we have taken, I can tell you, some very large bets on number 14, zardozzi, to win this year's edition of it.

Speaker 1:

Yeah.

Speaker 2:

That's right.

Speaker 1:

What price can the punters get right now, as we obviously record and should also interject is probably the word I'm looking for there to say to any of the people listening to this. Obviously, we are recording slightly before this goes live, so prices may vary. But as of recording this right now, mate, what prices are we looking at?

Speaker 2:

Zardozzi, you could have got $5 on Sunday. You can now only get $3.50. Okay, so Zardozzi, five into 350. Definitely clearly the best back runner with us all weekend at Chase. Bet is on Zardozzi to win the AJC Australian Derby Second and third favourites. So second and third favourites. Riff Rocket is technically the favourite.

Speaker 1:

Oh, of course sorry.

Speaker 2:

Easy, easy in the market, as you would think, 350 would be a favourite in a derby, wouldn't you?

Speaker 2:

But also Riff Rocket was 240 out to 320, with chase bet next in line. We're actually starting to see a bit of money for why mark, who has made it four on the bounce, including that really good win over noisy boy last time out does draw awkwardly. That's the issue with why mark, as we do see some other money coming for a roughy in seal wolf from 14s into 10 dollars mate, and outside of that, racing racing obviously fantastic Saturday of racing ahead.

Speaker 1:

What else have we got? I know you're a massive, massive EPL fan and you're an extremely good judge. For those that are out there listening, this is where Ryan's mastery really comes to the fore in the English Premier League. He knows it inside out, mate. Have we got a little sneaky tip for the listeners out there for the English Premier League? And he knows it inside out, mate. Have we got a little sneaky tip for the listeners out there for the English Premier League and also any other sports or racing of note?

Speaker 2:

Yeah, okay, just before we do leave the racing, I better mention the TJ Smith as well, al.

Speaker 1:

Of course.

Speaker 2:

Sorry, mate. Yep, you're okay. You're okay. Imperatrix is $3.20. I wish I were in $4.20. I wish I were in $420. Pretty quiet betting front, but I just thought I'd just mention that in there we have seen some money for a couple of roughies Aft Cabin 26s into 21s. Private Eyes 26s into 21s. The one that we actually have seen money for with us at Chase Bet is number 11, sunshine in Paris $12 into $8.

Speaker 1:

Mate, and again I'm going to actually say we've almost forgotten my favourite race, or one of my favourite races, that's for sure the Golden Easter Egg semifinals. Just give us a quick rundown, our all-in market at the moment. Who do we have as the favourites in the all-in? Just quickly read us out the kind of top five or six in the market there to still win the Golden Easter Egg with the semifinals this week, Four semifinals, top two go through to the final.

Speaker 2:

Yeah, we've got the Easter Egg markets all in and the Association Cup market all in, available for our Chase Bet punters. And in the Golden Easter Egg, no surprises here McKenna, the clear favourite, at $4. Tim Zoo $6. Smooth playing at $8.50. August Bob $10. You can get $12 about Zippy, megatron, nangar, larry and All Natural. And ultimately, back in the Association Cup, it's going to be the punter's favourite is Palo Joaquin, and deservedly so. The $3.30 favourite in front of Val Polichella at $4.50. Zulu Blast $4.50. Drill Sergeant $7.00. And further out to Al's Entity at $11.

Speaker 1:

Al's Entity. What a cool name. Hey, very cool.

Speaker 2:

Not the pilot.

Speaker 1:

Not the pilot, just to finish us off, mate, epl and any other sports or racing that you just want to mention on the week ahead.

Speaker 2:

Yeah, sure, well, we'll start. The big game for this weekend is actually the Glasgow Derby, and I am a crazy.

Speaker 1:

Oh, we're not even on the APL here. I am talking the APL up and you shift across to an entire different country, Entirely different league.

Speaker 2:

I've got to do it to you, mate, you know I'm a.

Speaker 2:

Celtic fan. I am a crazy, crazy Celtic fan and we are playing in the Glasgow Derby this week. Ultimately, it's going to determine the Scottish Premier League. In my humble opinion, celtic a game in front of Rangers. Rangers have a game in hand. Celtic two points clear after winning on the weekend. This game is going to determine the season for both sides and I don't think, unfortunately, for my beautiful hoops. I will be singing the fields of Athenry. I am using my head, not my heart, alan.

Speaker 1:

I think Rangers are going to beat us. And what unders or overs mate, if we go for the punters out there, if they were taking a same-game multi Rangers to win outright into, or would you take? Draw, no bet.

Speaker 2:

No, I personally would go Rangers to win at home. I think that Rangers are the better side. We need some Kyogo Furahashi or Hatati magic or something like that to happen for Celtic. I believe playing away.

Speaker 1:

And overs or unders mate Over two and a half goals or under two and a half goals.

Speaker 2:

I think it'll be under two and a half goals. I'd go Rangers under two and a half goals. I think Rangers will win, probably 2-0.

Speaker 1:

There you go. I like it. That might be the other sneaky little bit. We'll check in next week on how that goes. And is there any other sport you want to touch on? Mate or racing?

Speaker 2:

Yes, we'll just touch on the Premier League. So ultimately, we saw man City and Arsenal draw and Liverpool win, so Liverpool go to the top of the Premier League. After doing so against Brighton last week, the Blue Moon are actually struggling to pick up points in recent weeks, so Arsenal and Liverpool are looking the most likely. So for your all-in and future betting, I would sort of focus around Arsenal-Liverpool to win the actual EP girl this weekend's games, I think. Just back those three to win. I think Liverpool, arsenal, man City and your three-leg multi, I think you'll be getting the biggies. It probably won't be much odds, but I'd be taking that.

Speaker 1:

Any price a winner, as they say mate. Yeah, any price a winner.

Speaker 2:

What I will give for the punters is a couple of little things that we've got here from the trading room. As I touched on ranges, I think Adelaide will beat Melbourne, based on the money that we're seeing the Cowboys to beat the Titans in the NRL At Caulfield. I'm going to give a horse to some runners, One Caulfield. I'm going to give a horse to some runners, One that's been in our Chase, Bet Black Book. I'll give it to him. Now is Race 5, number 7, Furious. We've seen some early money for it $7 into $4.80. Mckenna to win on Saturday and just to stamp itself as a clear, outright golden Easter egg favourite. I think we're the punters should look out for this weekend's action.

Speaker 1:

Love it, ryan, much appreciated mate. Appreciate. Love it, ryan, much appreciated mate. Appreciate the time, the energy. I know the listeners. We've had some great feedback. They love the insight into the behind the scenes of what's going on with Chase, bet the bets, hearing the bets and following along. Mate, look forward to seeing how the results go and look forward to hearing how the weekend goes when we have our next episode next week. Thanks, mate.

Speaker 2:

And I did behave myself a little bit more this week. You were mate and I did behave myself a little bit more this week.

Speaker 1:

You were, mate. You're under control, always, mate. I think the punters listening and the listeners out there love your personality, mate, appreciate it. You have a great night, mate. See you, buddy. Thanks, al.

Speaker 1:

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Speaker 1:

On to our black bookers. I love this Particularly looking forward to one of these weeks down the track, rewinding and just having a look at how some of these Black Bookers have performed, how many have won and where they've progressed through to. So our Black Bookers this week we have two maidens in Victoria to keep your eye out for Ryko Walter and Hibiki Blue, h-i-b-i-k-i. Hibiki Blue are the two maidens to watch out for in Victoria, as well as one that I think is on the verge of breaking back through, called Hot Lips. This is a dog that in its early, early career, was lid pinging and looked like it could be an absolute future star. Had a little bit of a let up and since then hasn't quite come back. The same now today in a race I felt like it began significantly better, was really running through the line a lot harder and and I think it's on the verge of winning. So if you can see hot lips going around, particularly if it's boxed on the inside of the outside, I think you want to have a look and have a little something on hot lips. It's one to mark down that's not a maiden Out of the New South Wales Maiden Series.

Speaker 1:

So the New South Wales Maiden Series was run with a few interesting results. Some favorites got beat, some went through. One thing that I know for certain is out of this series. The heat performances are not always an indication of where the dogs end up going through, but the money, the weight of money, is often correct and usually in the next start or two these dogs perform and the two best back runners out of the heats that did not win a heat were power of cinder and cade. So they were the two best back runners. Heavy money for them. They didn't quite have. Let's call it the luck, particularly early on how. I'm super confident that both of these dogs will go on and win races when they next appear. Keep an eye out for them. But Power of Cinder C-I-N-D-A and Cade are the two to definitely follow in New South Wales of the maiden runners and shifting gears into our better betting.

Speaker 1:

A couple of areas that I wanted to talk about tonight. The first one is when you bet and this is something that is really important to understand is that you can either bet early or you can bet late, and there's ups and downs to both. Now, if you're betting early, as a rule, the percentage, the total percentage in the market that the bookmakers are offering is going to be higher. The upside is that you can seal that price in and if that runner continues to firm, you could have the absolute, what we call the top of the market. However, if you're not confident or it's not a runner that you look at and say, hey, this is a runner that I know is going to be heavily backed, or you're expecting it to firm significantly then you want to be looking to bet in the last few minutes of racing.

Speaker 1:

The last few minutes is when bookmakers have taken bets elsewhere. You can look around, you can see the fields and how the prices have changed, you can see the fluctuations. But in general and I know this is certainly the case with Chasebed and many other bookmakers is that in the last few minutes the percentage is generally at its best. You've had time for the market to balance out. The prices are as close to correct let's call it correct as they're going to be and that percentage is at its lowest. And when the percentage is at its lowest it's in the best odds for the punter. So you've got two options. So when you're having your bet, just think about it. If you think your runner is going to firm, and firm fairly significantly, you bet early. Don't worry about the percentage because it's going to firm in anyway. If you're unsure, if you're thinking to yourself, no, it's not really going to get backed in, or it's a runner that may, even in your own mind you might think it's going to be drifting out. The best time to bet is in the last few minutes when the percentage offered by bookmakers is at its lowest. So that's the first one.

Speaker 1:

The second one I wanted to talk about was another little form guide aspect, particularly for myself in greyhound racing that I look at and that is the trainer's win percentage and the trainer's win percentage at the track Massive guide in both areas, particularly when it comes to young dogs, early runners, having their first start, having their first handful of starts. Now if you see a trainer who has a win percentage of 2% one in 50 with a first starter then to me personally I question whether that dog is going to be worth backing, particularly at the price, because you're looking at a price comparison versus the percentage. If I see a runner where the trainer's win percentage is 40%, well, as a rule that trainer probably doesn't have slow greyhounds. Probably all of their runners are fairly handy to have a 40% win percentage. Obviously the more runners and the more starters they've had and the higher the percentage is, the more powerful it becomes and the less they've had, then that's the reverse as well, something to absolutely look out for.

Speaker 1:

Also, looking at the track, there's certain trainers. They may live in an area, their greyhounds are brought up, learning and being educated at that track and the percentage may be higher at that track than if they travel away. So they're little things just to just to look at. They help be a guide. They're not the obvious be all and end all of of what you're deciding, you're betting, but they certainly can have a factor on what price you take, or what price you're willing to take as well. So I trust those two little tips around the pricing and around the form guide of the win percentage help you to become a better bettor. So we switch to the bookies desk and, as has become a custom, very, very quickly the hot topics with our CEO and founder, damien Harris. Damien, how are you champion?

Speaker 3:

Mate, I'm good as always.

Speaker 1:

The topic we have for you tonight is independent bookmakers and just bookmaking in general. Independent bookmakers and just bookmaking in general. So to give a little bit of context to the listeners out there, in 2023, we have seen a number of bookmakers either sold or bought out, I should say, or bookmakers walking away from their online wagering business. I did a quick tally and I believe it was nine in 2024 so far. I want to dive into what's causing this. Where does that position Chase bet? Where does that position other bookmakers? And, most importantly for the people listening, where does that position the punter and is betting with a bookmaker like ChaseBet, who is a new emerging? Obviously, we're growing extremely quickly. Bookmaker a good thing or not so good thing? And they're the questions that I have for you to answer tonight. So let's start with it. Let's start with the real crux of it. Why start with it? Let's start with the real crux of it. Why? Why have we seen nine bookmakers no longer continuing to bet as we know them?

Speaker 3:

look, I think it's a very multifaceted issue. If you go to one extreme, you'll get the smaller independent guys go. We can't compete with the big guys and just throw their hands in the air. However, they've also possibly gone into the business a tad naive. They've thought just open the shutters, they'll roll in. You know, we've got, you know, bonus betting syndicates. We've got all these sort of things that we've got to combat, not to mention large syndicates that are price manipulating and doing unsavoury things.

Speaker 3:

That doesn't help integrity within the sport, which affects the recreational. Anna.

Speaker 1:

So do you think then?

Speaker 1:

So listening to that just a real capture, hearing you talking about this and I know we've had many discussion personally, but not on, obviously, this podcast as you're talking through it Do you think a lot of that has triggered on the back of COVID, on the back of you know? We did see, in wagering, covid saw a big spike increase. So, as you said, some independents moved online because they couldn't bookmake. They didn't necessarily look at what the pitfalls could be, a couple that you just mentioned then being that they weren't looking at the bonus hunters, they weren't looking at the syndications, and it was just a matter of put the prices online, bet, see what happens, put some promos up, see what happens, and not to discredit anybody that's gone into the game, because, as you know oh so well, having been in this industry in so many forms of bookmaking, it's not that simple and it's not discrediting anyone because it is a tough game. Do you think that's part of it as well, that there's this big kind of sugar hit rise and then these other things start to kick in?

Speaker 3:

Well, I definitely think during COVID. You know, on-course bookmakers couldn't work on course, so they had to diversify and they had to do it very quickly. However, I've spoken to some of these exiting bookmakers and we've got things such as hot compliance costs. They're really not only the cost but the time. It's very time consuming for smaller operators. They don't have large departments like the big guys and if they outsource it, it's very costly. You know, we know ourselves that. You know you've got to have a legal team with you. There's sharks out there, you know, and you've got to protect yourself against the sharks.

Speaker 1:

Well, sorry to interrupt there, Damian. I was going to say I think some of this stuff is even going to lead into some future conversations. I've just taken notes for some of our future calls. But sorry, mate, to interrupt there. Do you think as well, outside of that, that the smaller guys can continue to compete? So you were talking about these guys. We've lost them out.

Speaker 1:

The back end, as you said, pocked, or what I know you refer to as integrity issues around market manipulations, syndications, bowlers for those that don't know what a bowler is listening a bowler is an account, that is, a person is using another person's name or identity or using their account to have bets. Obviously, a lot of this stuff is coming into play and it's been around forever and a day. Don't get me wrong. We know that. I think it's probably more prevalent with so many bookmakers there. How do you, how does Chase bet out of the independents that aren't yet and I say yet because I think there are a few that are emerging that will be very, very much up there in the near future how do they compete right now and what is the advantage for the punter to bet with those guys Betting?

Speaker 1:

with us specifically, I suppose Well, look I think it's based around service.

Speaker 3:

That's where the independent or smaller bookmaker can beat the bigger guys. You know we can be more personal. Generally, if you reach out to us, you're going to get a CEO or GM response much more quickly. You know you're not going to get to the top guys, you're only going to get to the middle managers. And obviously we you know bookmakers you know, and the word care doesn't always come across very well, but it's a customer service.

Speaker 1:

Is that an oxymoron mate? It is no. I know it's not with you, but it certainly sounds like it sometimes, doesn't it?

Speaker 3:

But we're in the customer service business, yeah, and if we're not looking after the customer? You know, I'm all about the, you know, fair price, fair bet mantra and we've got to take a bet of some description, of some description. And I think if all operators applied to, let's all take a fair bet. Then there's 100 operators, punters can get set. You know Liquidity in the market is key. Punters need to be able to get set or they're not going to bet. Simple as that.

Speaker 1:

Or they are looking at ways to, as you mentioned before, syndicate and manipulate and all this kind of stuff to get their own edge. You talk about service there, damo, and I think you're spot on. I'm just going to touch on this. Obviously, yes, we can call ourselves biased. However, I think this is a reality as well is, and we see day in, day out, some of our customer service team in Steve and John and Tony and Matt and a few of the others doing a great job in servicing. It's the little things like can I get an OSCO payment for the guy that reaches out and wants to get his money straight away? Or talking about reaching out and just asking for a bet that they have a question about. They're confused as to why their bet did lose, or it could have been because of a dead heat, or it could have been because of something else.

Speaker 1:

All of the guys are hunters themselves. They love sport, they love racing, so they can answer the questions. You're not being diverted to another country. You're not being diverted to somebody who's never had a bet in their life, and the guys genuinely do cheer people on when they win. Yes, they're working for Chasebet, but they genuinely enjoy having a chat and cheering people on. So I think what you touched on there with the service is definitely the case. Pricing-wise, are you more nimble or less nimble as a bookmaker right now versus let's call them for the one of a better term right now? The bigger guys, the bigger corporates.

Speaker 3:

I think we've all got constraints with especially pocked, and I think this is. It's just no good for the industry because it's taking the efficiencies out of the market and at the end of the market and at the end of the day, the punters are the ones that have to pay. The margin has to come from somewhere. However, I like to think that we you know we are more traditional, want for a better word. If the smart guys are backing one, we're pushing others out, and vice versa. So you know, I'm not saying we're always going to be the best price, but it should be fair price.

Speaker 1:

And I think we talk about this often on SEN, on the Lids Fly program. Shout out to those boys is that you do and that's how you have set up Chasebet from a trading point of view. Is that every now and then well, not every now and then. Quite regularly you will see runners in our market that are the top of the market from any other bookmaker out there, while other runners may be slightly shorter and it kind of counterbalances because of exactly what you said.

Speaker 1:

Somebody's come in and had a significant bet on a runner at firms in traditional bookmaker, no different to when you're at. I remember when I was a young fella standing there first learning about bookmaking and watching the bookmaker take a bet, winded in, but then what did he instantly do? Wound out some of the other runners, and I think what you just touched on there is a great one for the listeners to hear as well. Where does it go fromo? Is this the end of it or do you think are we in for a little bit more of a consolidation first, and is there actually any concern for the punters out there, or is this actually ultimately a good thing for the punter?

Speaker 3:

No, that's a loaded question too.

Speaker 1:

That's a very loaded question.

Speaker 3:

So I don't think it's a good thing for the punner that there's less competition. I think there's going to be further contraction over the next 12 months and if we see a popterising New South Wales, obviously New South Wales being a very popular state, it's going to have a big effect on profitability you know, so it's all in the hands of the new south wales treasury department. Really, if they want to start racing in this country, I'll give it a good run, won't they?

Speaker 1:

yeah, it's going to be an interesting one to see how everything plays out there, how it actually unfolds and, as we mentioned in our podcast previously, if they actually take on the advice and engage some people that have been in this industry for a fair period of time. I know that ChaseBet obviously is in a great position, with numbers growing, increasing. Obviously, different things that ChaseBet is doing allows the punter to be a part of that, as you mentioned the service and the pricing and everything else. Any last thoughts that you have around some of these independents and I know this is certainly not a slight on anyone that hasn't continued Some of these people that you know personally that have left. They haven't just all left purely because they have what's the word? Financially folded. It's just been a choice that they no longer want to put that same time and energy into their business. But is there any kind of last words you want to share around the topic, matt?

Speaker 3:

I think the effort levels to be an independent online bookmaker are high. It's seven days a week and you know it's effectively 24 hours a day. So, you know, hats off to some of these guys who have been doing it for two, three, four, five years and done a great job. We're early in our journey, but you know we may be in a similar position. You know looking to sell or you know even. You know we may even consider expanding.

Speaker 1:

I was about to say. Knowing you, damo, I don't think it's the sell one. There's so much the thought pattern. I think it's more of the potential acquisition and purchasing and the continuation of expanding on the trajectory that Chasebet has been on, which is a fantastic thing, and it's thanks to so much support and so many people that are sharing the good word of Chasebet and sharing how much they're actually loving being part of ChaseBet, from everything, as you mentioned the customer service, the promotion, the pricing, everything along that line. So, mate, thanks so much again.

Speaker 1:

Some of these topics are tough to talk about and I don't give you a lot of time to prepare the answers for this, which is part of the beauty of this whole podcast. They're kind of sprung on you a little bit. The questions are sprung on you, but we want to do that. Just, I want to clarify that for the listeners. It's not like this is a plan. Hey, damo, say this. This is putting Damo in the hot seat so you can actually hear what his thoughts are, and you can often hear him pause because he's actually thinking about the answer at the same time, and I absolutely love it. I get to see you and how you react to some of these questions. We might have to take some videos in future weeks and pop them up on on socials of some of these as well.

Speaker 1:

Thanks, steve stamo, really appreciate the time mate beautiful thanks for joining us on the we Bet you Pod. Please follow the show so you don't miss a thing. If you know a mate that needs to hear this episode, make sure you share this episode with them too. Rating and reviewing the show makes a big difference, and I really respect the time and energy that takes. In return, I can guarantee I'll be showing up every single week with another action-packed episode. Chasebet encourages responsible gambling. Imagine what you could be buying instead For free and confidential support. Call 1800 858 858 or visit gamblinghelponlineorgau dot au.