We Bet Ya

07: Aussie Battler Snags a Beauty!

• Allan Hillzinger • Season 1 • Episode 7

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Ever wondered how a $20 punt can spiral into an $18,500 triumph or just miss a colossal $60k windfall? Strap in and join Allan, Ryan & Damian as they recount some  betting stories that were full of mixed fortunes. 

Allan and Ryan are your guides through last week's adrenaline-fueled escapades where the underdogs had their day, and the punters tipped the scales with savvy multi bets that paid off handsomely. It's a roller coaster of highs and lows, and they're here to break down every turn and twist.

The boys also pull back the curtain on last weeks rugby league and AFL which left fans and bettors alike feeling the unexpected turns. 

Allan's not just about the thrill of the bet; he's here to arm you with knowledge on how these shifts could impact your pocket. This week he discusses greyhound racing form, revealing how a deeper understanding of form and looking at grades can give you the edge when the hounds hit the track – insights that could mean the difference between a win and a walk home.

Finally,  with Damo, stepping into the ever evolving arena of bookmaking, where the point of consumption tax and Victoria's racing review have the potential to shake up the game. 

Finally, a special shout out to the Newcastle listeners, who if they make their way to The Gardens this Friday night can hav a betting battle with Damian on track for the $500k to the winner "715" meeting. 

Remember, there's always more on the horizon, so add "We Bet Ya" podcast to your favourites and don't miss  any episodes. And as always – bet smart and gamble responsibly.

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Speaker 1:

Welcome to we Betcha, a betting podcast dedicated to providing comprehensive information, tips and education that will take your punting entertainment to another level. I'm your host, Alan Hilsinger from Chasebet sporting CEO, professional gambler, now bookmaker. Tune in as I unleash my sometimes unconventional approach and views on all the current sports and races. Chasebet encourages responsible gambling. Imagine what you could be buying instead. For free and confidential support, call 1-800-858-858 or visit gamblinghelponlineorgau. After a week off, we are back with the pilot. How are you, Ryan?

Speaker 2:

Mate, I'm well. I'm still not very rested after the battering we took last week, but I'm here, I'm kicking.

Speaker 1:

Let's start with that, mate. There were a couple of really good winners and on our social media we did make a post which obviously a lot of people wouldn't see as well. Just run us through Anzac Day Racing and the outcomes there, in particular one as you've referred to him as Aussie Battler, who had a series of $20 multis I think it was about 20 lots of $20 multis or something like that. Run us through what those bets look like and what the day and the whole week last week was like for ChaseBet.

Speaker 2:

Yeah. So on Anzac Day, one for the battlers here for sure. So very appropriate. And we had one just you know sort of I guess weekday punter having you know, sort of I guess weekday punter having you know chucking a few hundred dollars into their account, having a bit of a go and doing combinations around five particular runners. And those five runners were, you know, a combination of Randwick and Flemington, and starting off with it was, I think, race four, number three at Randwick, kokoro, which won Race six, number two, Jetty Bill at Randwick, which won Flemington race five, number three, ebby Mellis that won, and Flemington, race six, number 11, ahuriri that won. Now, so he had combinations, five runners in fact, and then had four runners combinated, three numbers, two numbers, et cetera, et cetera. The fifth number that he had was this gentleman was in the last at Randwick and it was beating the neck, flashing down the outside.

Speaker 1:

That's one favourite back then, wasn't it Heavily backed?

Speaker 2:

Yeah, it went in the amour and it was, you know flew down the outside and ultimately this gentleman was lucky enough to still win $18,500 on the day, but it very easily could have been over $60,000 for this small playoff. So a wonderful Anzac Day for this gentleman.

Speaker 1:

A neck away from winning $60,000 and, as you said, it was like a $400 deposit or whatever it was somewhere around there. Yeah, you know what that's significant for some, and probably more than the average punner even.

Speaker 3:

However, what a day, what a day.

Speaker 1:

What a day. Yeah, going into that last leg, it's one of those things. As a punter yourself, you know you're excited. You've already won the $18,000. That's locked in, You've already been paid out. But getting beaten in the neck on a heavily backed favourite is a heartbreaker as well. Emotions all over the place, there isn't it.

Speaker 2:

Flashing as well, Like literally. If I'm not the tale of Phil flashing down the outside, you can see it building up ahead of Sam. You just thought this gentleman was destined to get it too. Too late, brother.

Speaker 1:

Too late brother, as the old dogsy Dolan, Paul Dolan, would say too late brother, but well done. Well, but well done to him as well. Anyway, winning the 18,000. The way it goes, that horse is an absolute moral. To just bolt in next start, I would imagine as well throw that in the black book, Mate. Outside of that, let's have a look at the rest of the races. Was it a good kind of weekend for Chase Bet? Did the punters get the better of it? Mixed bag what did we have on both Thursday and Saturday in particular?

Speaker 2:

Well, as you know, we had a week off, you know, to relieve the stress and stuff like that. We should have saved an extra week because, yeah, it wasn't a great week for us. Certainly the punters were on top last week and that continued obviously from Anzac Day into Saturday, where we saw another gentleman have a couple of thousand dollars on a runner at $7 each one and then backed it up with a $200 multi, that same runner at $7, into Edison. In the last event of the day, at Caulfield, that was $23 into $8.50 and a $200 multi turned very quickly into $24,500. So $2,007, $14,000, and then $200 at big odds to get $24,000. The gentleman walking away with $38,500. And, yeah, certainly lent us over a little bit there.

Speaker 1:

It's a little bit. It's one of those ones, too, where you know yourself as a punter. Whenever you've had be at a multi quaddie, it almost feels like it always finishes up a little bit like the other one we spoke about where you get beaten the neck flashing. That horse in the last was never, ever getting beaten. It went to the front. It went to the front easy and literally if you were betting live it would have almost 300 meters into the race been into favorite and at the top turn it was long odds on like how good is that as and I'm talking from a punner point of view, not as a bookmaker how good is that when you actually get a multi up? And it was realistically an easy watch?

Speaker 2:

it was and and it wasn't known to obviously us, but a lot of sharpies around the country with speed mapping and stuff like that saw that it was going to be an easy lead for Edison, hence the large support that we found out obviously later, yeah, but $23.58. That horse started and you can certainly see the reasons behind the plunge obviously saluting, getting tired the last 100, but still being miles in front to hold on. So, yeah, a massive result for the punters last week, al, and certainly one that I'd like to forget about, to be honest with you.

Speaker 1:

Yeah, absolutely, mate, absolutely. The sport, though, wasn't so bad. Take us through the sport. I know there were some mixed results, real mixed results. Take us through. And then also, well, let's start with the AFL. And where are we at at the moment in the premiership market? Not a lot of change. Or have we seen any teams go significantly out the gate or firm in?

Speaker 2:

Yeah, well in terms of sport last week. So AFL was probably on our side last week. However, once again, rugby league not to our liking at all, but yeah, as we did touch on very tough week for us, not just in racing front but also in sport. To a degree, the AFL was one area that we actually did okay in. But GWS, yeah, $5 favourites Equal along now with the one that we spoke about. That was well over the odds at $13, only a couple of weeks ago. Our Geelong Now into $5, equal favourites with GWS $5,.

Speaker 3:

equal favourites with GWS $5.

Speaker 2:

Yeah, big, big plunge there on Geelong Sydney $6 still. I still think they represent unders. To be perfectly honest with you. Carlton $7. Melbourne $8. Collingwood are starting to find a little bit of form at $10, then further out to Port Adelaide and Brisbane, lions around the $15 and $18 mark, respectfully.

Speaker 1:

Brisbane. Just one of those teams, aren't they where one week you think, gee, these guys are right in the premiership, and then the next week you're just yeah, yeah.

Speaker 2:

The less set of our Brisbane, the better at the moment.

Speaker 1:

And the Western Bulldogs were the best back last week. Obviously got beat.

Speaker 2:

Yeah, we had some large wages on the Western Bulldogs Big hits.

Speaker 1:

It was multiple big hits on the Western Bulldogs. It always tears me apart. I'm a Western Bulldogs supporter and have been since I was a young fella this bookmaking business. Whenever we have big bets on the Western Bulldogs, it's like, oh, I can't cheer them on tonight. All the rest of it, same with when Manly play, and I know you're the same with your own sports as well. But at the rest of it, same with when Manly play, and I know you're the same with your own sports as well. But yeah, at the end of the day, freeman, a little bit too good. Western Bulldogs another team that are just so inconsistent at the moment.

Speaker 2:

They show so much and deliver so little. A little bit like Arsenal, but Arsenal are still up. Arsenal beating Tottenham on the weekend and, yeah, keeping the dreams alive from the Premiership.

Speaker 3:

They're a champ.

Speaker 2:

They're a big champ yeah, I just say that just for one of my good friends that listens in, so I just stir him up being an Arsenal fan.

Speaker 1:

Love it, mate, not AFL, nrl. Looking at the NRL and as you said, it probably wasn't a great week I mean it wasn't bad, probably wasn't great in the results, the results, particularly the early results the Thursday and the Friday nights. I know there was some very decent bets that came off. Take us through that and take us through the new premiership market. Any moves there?

Speaker 2:

Yeah, well, ultimately we saw some money for your beloved Sea Eagles late and over the Eels, which was probably to be surprised. But where we really copped a battering was on the Melbourne Storm. Melbourne Storm at the line to defeat the Rabbitohs. That was quite hurtful. And then also we saw a lot of heavy money on the Roosters to beat the Dragons as well, and that obviously prevailed too, by a massive 60-18,. Can you believe it? I mean you saw 78 points in that game, 74 points in the Storm and Rabbitohs game. I mean it just shows you the class variances between these sides at the top and some of the sides at the bottom.

Speaker 2:

To be perfectly honest with you, the Broncos-West Tigers game was another one where we actually took some money on the Tigers but we actually still lost in the result due to a number of multis that were done earlier in the week on the Roosters storm into the Broncos. So you know that just turned out to be one of those results for us. And of course, we took some bets on the line at the Raiders and the Sharks. Go out and belt them. We think it's a good result. Once again we see Mouldies, knights and the Sharks. So yeah, tough week in rugby.

Speaker 1:

Yeah, definitely, definitely was, Mate. What was the? There was a game as well off the top of my head I'm just trying to think which game it was where it was the unders and overs and I think one of the teams scored right on the death. Was that in the rugby league?

Speaker 2:

That was the Titans Warriors, obviously. Last week we saw the draw in the Essendon-Collingwood game too, where we took a lot of money on that on Collingwood to win the game. Obviously we were cheering on Essendon hard and that ends up being a draw, so it's a voided situation there. But yeah, I'm pretty sure it was the Titans game, wasn't it, where they scored in the last couple of minutes against the Warriors, which turned out to be a good result for us, but then it backfired downhill for the rest of the week from there.

Speaker 1:

Yeah, very much so, mate. What are we seeing in the changes? Again, as you said, there's, I think, very, very clear discrepancy between the top teams and the next tier teams. You're kind of looking at now, those handful of teams. I mean, the Panthers were pushed, yes, but they're still not necessarily at full strength. So what are we looking at in the market?

Speaker 2:

Yeah. So the Panthers at $325, still solid favourites over the Brisbane Broncos currently at $4.10. Melbourne Storms $6. Sydney Roosters $8.50, further out to Cronulla at $11. And then your beloved Manly Seagulls at $13. The Warriors on the drift out to $26 after that early firm in the earlier part of the season.

Speaker 1:

They've shown a lot of promise. I think you kind of get a feel of a Brisbane Lions about them, where one week they look extremely good and you're like, wow, these guys actually might be right in this, and then the next week you just go. They couldn't possibly win.

Speaker 1:

It's a really, really interesting team. So the next few weeks, I think, will really dictate their season. But it does look a standout, doesn't it? It's hard to see any of that top handful. I mean even out to the Sea Eagles. Yes, they've got the capacity to, if they stay healthy, cause some upsets, but are they consistent enough? Probably not. I think it's really down to kind of the five top favourites there.

Speaker 2:

Yeah, it does look that way. And ultimately, penrith obviously they've been such a great side for the last couple of years, and the Broncos obviously coming into it last year it does look a season where those regular features are going to also do so again this season.

Speaker 1:

Mate, what have we got this week? Have we taken any bets across the AFL NRL early, any big bets early? I know there hasn't been a lot of movement on our end. I mean there's been bets coming in but nothing what we would consider super sharp money early where they think the pricing looks good early. Anything else that you've been able to find for us?

Speaker 2:

Yeah, not really. I mean we've taken some money on Adelaide to beat Port Adelaide in the showdown which is obviously on Thursday night at 7.30, so I think we'll be out by then. We have taken money on Adelaide. But other than that, I think up and down the east Coast with this rain and stuff like that it could be just causing a bit of havoc with some of the lines and some of the information coming out for some of the sharper clients this week. But yeah, it has been pretty quiet on the AFL front outside of Showdown, which is obviously tomorrow night, thursday night at 7.30, where we have seen Adelaide's line shorten up from plus 11.5 into plus 6.5. So $1.90 plus 6.5 minus our court Adelaide. But they're pretty quiet in the AFL.

Speaker 1:

Actually an interesting one on the weather, and we've had these discussions back and forth. And isn't it interesting how we've seen it the AFL the weather has such a big impact on the unders and overs, where obviously it's harder getting downfield, and all the rest of it. But unusually we haven't seen that in the rugby league this year. We've had some games where the rain's poured down and it's actually just opened the game up. And looking now as the season's unfolded, would you say that that is because of the discrepancy between the teams and the rain just exacerbates that and it just opens the game up.

Speaker 2:

Yeah, it's interesting because I mean, ultimately, we saw some sharp money a few weeks ago when we had that deluge in Sydney and it was at Brookfire, which is obviously known to be swampland when it does rain, and it was all on the unders and we started taking bets early in the week. I think it was like under 44.5, then under 42.5. The money just kept streaming in. I think the game ended up finishing like around 60 points.

Speaker 1:

Yeah, there were a couple of games that were just a try-fest no one could tackle no one could get their hands on them.

Speaker 2:

Yeah, crazy, crazy. So very unusual stuff going on with the weather, but very unusual stuff going with the under-zones this year because, ultimately, I think a lot of the professionals do obviously wait to see what the weather's doing, but they have been off a little bit at times this year and that was a perfect example of that profile game. But look, I think that's what they're doing. I think they're just going to wait and see what the dust is going to look like over the next couple of days and we might see some late action on the AFL and the league this week.

Speaker 1:

Mate. The other one is any other bets outside of that. I know you love the.

Speaker 2:

English Premier Premier League and the football over in Europe. Anything there? Any other bets on any other sports of note? We've taken some money on Real Madrid to win the Champions League. We took a bet of $2,000 on Real Madrid and another bet of $1,000 over the last few days and they came up with a two-all draw against Bayern Munich this morning. We have seen some money on Paris Saint-Germain tomorrow morning in the Champions League, but ultimately, clients here will miss out on that. Nothing. So much for the Premier Leaguers this week. But yeah, as we did touch on Arsenal earlier, we have seen some money coming in for Arsenal to win the title, being on the second line of betting behind Manchester City, but probably one bet I'd like you to put your mind to. We took a bet today of $17,000 on an Indian cricket game, believe it or not, so we've taken a bet they love their cricket, don't they?

Speaker 1:

And I mean obviously, not necessarily. The pun is not necessarily Indian, but, gee, the cricket over there is massive, isn't it? And the betting on it is massive. What exact was the bet, mate?

Speaker 2:

Yeah, I'm just kind of bringing it up for you now. So what was the Shen Wan Kings versus the oh the?

Speaker 1:

Punjab Kings versus the Chennai Super Kings.

Speaker 2:

Yes, the Chennai Super Kings versus the Punjab Kings, and so they were $1.65 and $2.70, and the punters backed the roughy in the field mate. So, yes, $17,000 at $2.70, then obviously shortened up accordingly from there and I think they're into it short of $2.10 now. So all the money on Punjab, and I believe that game starts at midnight tonight, so it's going to be a late one for me in the trading desk, that's for sure.

Speaker 1:

And some of the listeners will be listening to this, saying we've either been hit hard and the smart money was there, or we've got the cash, so go Chennai.

Speaker 2:

Yeah, absolutely Definitely go Chennai, El Chennai, el Chennai.

Speaker 1:

Mate, what have we got in racing, what this week shapes up on? Well, Friday night we'll talk about that. Last. We'll finish off with the 7.15 with the Gardens. Both you and I absolutely love our greyhound racing. What have we got on Saturday that the punters can look forward to? And it's interesting, as we're coming kind of out of the autumn carnival and we're moving into the winter carnival and we have that little bit of a transition with different racing. But gee, there's some good fields around.

Speaker 2:

There is in particular in South Australia this week. So we've got the feature races, the feature racing game in South Australia this week and, as you know, behind the trading desk we had a little sneaky little tip on one at 101 last week.

Speaker 1:

Oh, mate, don't talk about that. Oh, oh, that was sick that thing. I think it would have won. But anyway, sorry to interrupt you. No, no, I'd wipe that out of my memory, mate.

Speaker 2:

I know, I know we actually backed one last week on satellite that's going to be running in the South Australian Derby. It was 101. And yeah, unfortunately the jockey decided to try to do weird things instead of sticking to the fence and, yeah, cost it. But it's racing in the South Australian Derby this week and I can tell you right now it's 101 into $41. And the name of that horse is Wariel the Warrior. Go back and watch this last replay. I encourage all people out there listening to us this week's podcast, Wariel the Warrior, seven-channel derby. It's 40 to one. Definitely looks a lot.

Speaker 1:

Is that your money? Have you pushed it from 100s into 41s already?

Speaker 2:

No, I was just. You know, probably, maybe a little bit of it. I've had a sneaky little dabble at Warrie on a Warrie at $101 and $26 a place. I'm just looking here now it's at 41s and 11s and a lot of other places now. So it's certainly taught that. So keep your eye on that. But ultimately in that particular race and a deserved favourite in that race is Coco's son who's been heavily backed $6.50 into $4.40 for the South Australian Derby. Coco Sun for Tony McAvoy and Jamie Carr Warmonger was the early market favourite $4.80, drifting slightly to $5.50. Bold Soul $7.50. The money we actually have seen at Chasebet. We're seeing some money on the local Galloper at Soul $26 now into $19. We've taken a number of $500 each way bets on aerosol South Australian Derby. So that's probably the first one to go through.

Speaker 1:

Mate, who's riding your horse?

Speaker 2:

Who's riding your tip? Warriata, warriata. Well, deacon McClellan was on it last week and he's sticking on, so they've stuck with him, maybe he doesn't get lost going the other way again this week. Yes, I know.

Speaker 1:

Did I say that out loud? Did I just?

Speaker 2:

voice my thoughts. You might have just voiced them, that's okay. That's what we're here to do. We're here to ruffle some feathers. That's what we do at Chase man.

Speaker 1:

You know what? 10 out of 10 for every jock. I know I say that tongue in cheek, but 10 out of 10 for any jockey that jumps aboard and it's. You know, especially in those big fields and those big races, it just couldn't be easy right.

Speaker 2:

Mate. I feel, mate, it must be very, very difficult then to hop on a horse. It's probably the same difficulty for my missus to ever do the same to me. So but that's a story for another day. With the Queen Elizabeth Cup, the map is the clear favourite, mate. We've taken some really good bets and it's probably the best back runner. All weekend we opened up at $2.90. I can tell you it's in the $2.40, the map In the Queen Elizabeth II Cup At Moffaville.

Speaker 1:

Clearly the Sharps Think it maps well mate.

Speaker 2:

They obviously do. Yeah, mate, absolutely. And yeah, first Immortal and if we're equal Favourites, first immortals. Out in the gate 270 to 320, the map, yeah, 2.8, 2.90 into $2.40 and clear favourite now for the Queen Elizabeth II car. Let's go to that.

Speaker 1:

Some great racing and, as always with Chase Spett, some great pricing, great markets, great promotions. Let's go to the 7.15. And I'm talking a little bit later with Damien about this. He's out there fielding at the gardens, he's out there bookmaking. What's your thoughts on this race? The 7.15? It's a half a million to the winner. It's the richest staying race, greyhound staying race in the world. Give us the market and give me your tip and any roughies that the punters out there that just like to have a little bit of an interest at a bit more value Give us that.

Speaker 2:

Sure. Well, ultimately throughout the Chasebet team has been keen on Raiders Guide and our pricing reflects that. Val Palachella $2.40, with us here at Chasebet Raiders Guide, $2.90. Canyon Amy $7.00. Ritzer Piper $8.00. Like a Wildfire $9.00. And then furthering out to Redeemer Blue, $7.00. Since that Explode, 26 might have been $31.00. And then you've got the Reserve Zippy, neutron and Owls Entity, both around the $12, $13 mark.

Speaker 1:

What about might have been? What about might have been? Last week we took a bet of what was it? $50 at $100 a month? Yeah, at $101.

Speaker 2:

Yep, that's correct. Yeah, we did. We took some money on. Might have been just before jump actually, and we saw the dog plummet from $101 across Australia into $34, $26 by jump. So somebody had word out there of something going on. It might have been a jump straight to the lead. You just assumed it would get tired. It just didn't. It just kept going. It just kept going.

Speaker 1:

Yeah, no, it wasn't to be. It was to be for the punter, but it wasn't to be for Chase Bet. So what's your tip there, mate? What have we got? Who are you going Sticking with Raiders, guys?

Speaker 2:

Yeah, look as well. As you know, I took Raiders guide early in betting at $11, $12 elsewhere around the country early on before the start, before everything came out. $11, $12 Raiders guide. I'm glad to see it into a clear second favourite, doing the form this week for the 7-15,. I like one each way. I think Ritzapipe is beautifully drawn. I think it's going to get a great run. Al Politella is going to be very hard to beat, there's no denying it. But I'm just a little bit worried about that dog that we just spoke about might have been. Does it keep Raiders Guide out?

Speaker 1:

there, you know, does it.

Speaker 2:

Keep it working, working, working. And Ritzapipe sits on their backside and has a beautiful gun run and the way that it it kind of looks like that might happen. So lower back Raiders guide. I'm going to go to the punters out there. Ritzapai Marijuai.

Speaker 1:

Love it, mate. I my roughy. I'm with Raiders guide as well. I just think it it's a box eight banded as well. It if you wanted a box for it, I think you want a box eight. It got off on that. What do you call it? The first turn, really, the first main turn? I just think it's going to improve. And yeah, it's the old adage too in any final I know it's a 715 metre race, but any final if you can find the leader, gee, it's a massive advantage. The one I like is like wildfire and I know it's. Yeah, it's been that dog that in its early days could have been anything or still could be anything, and everyone wanted to tout it potentially the best stayer in Australia or future best stayer in Australia. I just think if it can get out $9, you're not. We laid it last week. We laid it last week when it was much, much shorter. It's the type of dog I think that now that it's got out and people are forgetting about it, it's almost been written off.

Speaker 2:

Absolutely. When you lob it. It's almost been written off. Absolutely when you're lobbing If it gets clear galloping room and, you know, doesn't get crowded out like wildfire without it out. It's probably the fastest individual dog in that field.

Speaker 1:

Yeah, if it can jump and it does, it's not like it doesn't have pace early. I mean, if it doesn't begin and gets crowded up, it'll be out the back and it's not picking them up. But if it somehow landed third right behind Raiders' guide and might have been, yeah, I just think that there might be a sneaky there and it was actually a really really good run to run second year come on.

Speaker 2:

Absolutely. Yeah, no, absolutely. I mean you only have to watch the dog you could say wasn't keen to go under dogs, et cetera. And if it was in a situation where those dogs weren't there and it had clear running, I had no doubt a lot of wildfire would have won at St Blasphemy, like you could see, there was so much left in the tanks. And let's not forget the Masters training it at the moment. You know Peter Lugogiani, obviously. You know a million-dollar chase winning trainer, as well as other group ones around the country. So you know, the master of New South Wales has got this greyhound in his more than capable hands and I'm sure that he'll pull off some little Gorgiani magic for the final here with White Wildfire and the dog will run very well, you know. I've got no doubt about that, yeah.

Speaker 1:

Yeah, absolutely mate. Thanks heaps for that, ryan, I look forward to. Is there any other out left field tip-tap? Well, is there any?

Speaker 2:

other left field tip you have for him, because we were away last week we never got a chance to gloat. Oh we didn't.

Speaker 1:

That's what we were going to do.

Speaker 2:

Yeah, we were going to gloat.

Speaker 1:

Chance is an opportunity to talk about how good we are tipping.

Speaker 2:

Yeah, we tip clients into blindsiding at $7, end up starting $4.20. Magic time we tipped them into I think it was Pereira to finish in the top 10 in the golf that weekend. We tipped Collingwood at minus three and a half and, more importantly, you asked for the Premier League soccer tips as well and the multi got up as well.

Speaker 1:

So it was a really good week.

Speaker 2:

Yeah, we did. We had a fill up and we hope the punters out there certainly did too. So we only get one chance to gloat a week, and this is the chance, so I thought I'd better remind us to do it. I love it mate Love it.

Speaker 1:

Thanks, steve. So, ryan, look forward to seeing how the week rolls out and chatting next week. I hope it's better than last week for us to chase bit buddy, Otherwise you might not be here, mate, we might not be. You're good. Thanks, brother.

Speaker 2:

Thanks Al See you, buddy.

Speaker 1:

And moving into our Black Bookers. So I was just having a look through for this week I have, so a new black booker I want to throw in into the mix. However, I wanted to go back and just have a look at some of the black bookers that have yet to win and just reiterate the ones that I feel you want to keep following, but put a little bit of context around them. So the first one I've got there for you is Twisted. You, queensland maiden dog, went up a Capella bar last week. You, queensland maiden dog, went up a Capella bar last week. I think if we see it return back to Ipswich, you really want to have a look at getting on, especially if you can draw the fence. If it does return back to Capella bar, probably worth having something on as well. Obviously, if it goes back to Capella bar, the trainer thinks it's a chance of breaking through in the maiden, but I'd love to see it return back to ipswich, get an inside draw and we can have an absolute fill up on twisted u and that's u, y, e, w. The other one there is untethered, so untethered. It's a dog I've mentioned a couple of times. I really, really want to see this dog go over the 500 meters or further in one of the country, one turnturn tracks. I think if we can see it come over the 500 at Bendigo or at Ballarat, then we want to be on spacious track, a little bit of room, a bit of time to wind up. If not, then alternatively we'd love to see it get over the 600 at the Meadows or Sandown. So keep an eye on untethered Messy in Heaven. I know we spoke must be now around four weeks ago. Now I did notice that Messi in heaven is with Greg Brennan and Greg Brennan is an absolute masterful trainer. It's been off for a month. Keep your eye out because I'm going to say when it resumes, you absolutely want to be on, no matter where it resumes. What it resumes in, the run that it put in last start before its break was absolutely phenomenal and you know it'll pop up somewhere in a fifth grade and it'll be well and truly worth a bet.

Speaker 1:

Hot Lips is another one that just cannot break through at the moment. And if we can see Hot Lips, it's another dog that look, I would love to see it again over, say, a 500 meters at bendigo or balarat myself. It's a dog that is missing the start. In its early days it used to lid ping like literally lid ping. It's been missing the start and really having to push hard, kind of petering a little bit in the middle and then finishing off its races. If it can get the right draw and actually get out of the box again, I think we're going to see it win. If it doesn't win in the next couple of starts we're definitely going to have to scratch it. But as soon as we do I'm sure it'll get the win.

Speaker 1:

And then today there was one that I liked up at Capalaba dog by the name of Brendan Nath. Now it was extremely weak, late it come out of the eight, banged into the seven, burst to the lead. I think it was last month or the month before it had the fastest or second fastest. It might've been slightly faster. Or just off Valhalla in its second sectional which is absolutely motoring and you could see it was humming in its second sectional. I think the run, the fitness, is going to do it the world of good and you want to be on next start. I think it'll run out the 366 much stronger. It's not easy to run out that 366 first up on the drag lure up at Capella Bar. So follow it along, especially if it draws the right race. I think you're going to see a much improved dog the next time, and that's Brendan Nath. So our black book is again Twisted. You Messy in Heaven, untethered Hot Lips and Brendan Nath. Add them into whichever black book you have and take notice of when they appear.

Speaker 1:

I myself, I love to use thedogscomau to keep all of my dogs in there, shifting into our better betting. And one of the topics I want to talk about today. Again, as always, I like to talk about things that a lot of people don't take notice of or are what I would consider undervalued, and that's class dropping. And I again, as you, you guys, know, I talk about greyhounds. That's, that's where my expertise is, that. It's been what I've done my whole life studied greyhound, study greyhound racing, study form, and it's great droppers.

Speaker 1:

Now, in particular, what I love to see and you see it a lot uh, dogs, yeah, northern new south w, there's a lot of them, not just Northern New South Wales, across New South Wales there's a lot of them, in particular, where you see dogs that have been in non-graded races or open races, particularly if they were third and fourth grade dogs and they were making up the numbers for a couple of starts as they went up in grade when they dropped back to fifth grades. Take notice in the form guide, especially dogs, that are not bad beginners. They're pretty good beginners. What you'll find is as they go up in grade it's a lot harder to lead the race. Just that little bit of extra, half a tenth of a second, is making the difference to whether they lead or they're sitting third or fourth. They drop back into a fifth grade. Going into that first turn there's less pressure. They're able to find the front or they're able to get into second or third rather than being pushed back into fourth or fifth. Huge difference.

Speaker 1:

The double to this is if you can find a runner who is dropping back in class and is in a better box draw. If they're an inside box dog, they've got a good inside record, they're dropping back in grade and they're drawn inside. That, to me, is a fantastic formula and it's often underlooked. People are, or the pricing is based on their current form, so to speak, and hasn't taken into account the fact that they are dropping back in grade. They're into the right box or let's say it's the outside box and they'd love to be on the outside. Huge, huge difference. So when you're doing your form, when you're looking at pricing, when you're looking and you're summing up if it's value, if it's not value, make sure you're taking into account and looking at the dogs that are coming back in grade, and particularly those coming back in grade that are also better drawn than what they have been against the higher grade. So that's my tip to help you be a better, better and I've got no doubt. Love any feedback. I have received some different feedback from people. Love any feedback or any topics you'd love me to talk about. Please feel free to reach out and continue to share different little tips and ways that you can read the form even better.

Speaker 1:

The we Bet you podcast is proudly brought to you by Chasebet. For a comprehensive betting experience, download the Chasebet app today. Think is this a bet you really want to place? For free and confidential support, call 1-800-858-858 or visit gamblinghelponlineorgau. All right, damo, I am going to circle back.

Speaker 1:

I know we spoke about this a few weeks ago, but this has been a topic that a lot of people have continually spoken to us about, asked about. It was a really intriguing topic, and that's the one of bookmakers, of corporate bookmakers, that have let's call it stopped trading, while on the other side we have new bookmakers that have come into the game. Now my calculations say there's more that have gone out than come in at the moment. Mate, just break this down for us again. I want to talk about a couple of other things. Where are we heading with all of this and what's going on, particularly for the punters that are listening? What do they make of this? Do they where's Chase, chase bet, sit in the scheme of this, or a whole bunch of loaded questions for you, mate as always, al, you've loaded the questions up um firing the gun.

Speaker 3:

Look, the market we're going into is you know it's going to contract. You know we've got lots of macroeconomic pressures that's making it hard for everyone. But you know I'll go into my old um favorites popped and increased charges. Look, there are new entrants coming into the market but a lot of them are recycled bookmakers they're, they're rebranding, they're re-changing, they're trying to get around popped. And you know, and you know I might call something.

Speaker 1:

Is that something the government needs to look at? Sorry to interrupt you there, mate, I know you're on a roll. Is that something that the governments need to look at, or is it a good thing? Or are bookmakers doing that because Pocked is out of control? Like again, that's a real loaded question. Like is it a good thing bookies are doing it, or is it a good thing?

Speaker 3:

bookies are doing it, or is it a bad thing? Look, I think bookmakers have got to do what bookmakers have got to do. We're running a commercial business. Look, I am really excited that Racing Victoria is having a review into their settings, which I think they're taking the lead from Racing Queensland and they're looking at. You know, tiering turnover.

Speaker 1:

As in, just to clarify for punters and people listening. So, tiering being what, the smaller you are through to, the bigger you are will vary how much percentage you're paying, or how much you pay, or what the maximum is, or how does that work?

Speaker 3:

Well. So on a brief reading of it, it looks really good. They're trying to stimulate the on-course market with a much lower percentage, which is a very small part of the market now. But then you know, you've got your operators that are under $30 million you know, I think, know, I think 30 to 250 millions, the next bracket, and then obviously the big boys, 250 million plus which.

Speaker 3:

That we've got to fund the industry, no problem. But we've got to get a fairer model or it's just going to be all push to sport, which is a much cheaper competitor, and we're all in the entertainment game now. That's what wagering is.

Speaker 1:

It's a form of entertainment and, as you said, as a business, you've got to look at the business model on what's best for you. So some of these bookmakers then so-called, as you said, splitting or having multiple brands on one hand, it can be a good thing, but on the other hand, it can also cause a little bit of confusion in the market and dilute as well. So, yeah, it's a really, really interesting one, mate. Just back on the victoria racing review, so you're talking about them breaking, uh, bookmakers into different and you mentioned on course. So are they looking to try and drive bookmakers back on course, or is it more to say thank you and reward the bookmakers that are continuing to be on course?

Speaker 3:

And how does that?

Speaker 1:

help the punter.

Speaker 3:

Well, firstly, it should help the punter in lower fees, more competitive markets, on course, it's probably what I harp on about on metropolitan race days. Your bigger operators are operating in the low to mid 120s, where we try to get ourselves down to 118, 117. Percentage-wise, yeah, and that's the key to the punter, you know, trying to be more competitive so they're getting more out of their entertainment dollar.

Speaker 1:

And the worst part is I mean this is probably a topic in itself and it's one that you know I'm passionate about is the amount of bookmakers that are then using promotions or bonuses for their punters, but then they will offset that with they might say, hey, here's a deposit match for 50 to some of their clients, but then you go in and they're betting at 126 128 on their markets, like I understand if, if runners have been backed and you're moving the book and that kind of stuff, but it's every race they're doing. But that's also part of that is coming back to what you said as well right, because of the constraints, they need to try and attract the punters in, but you can't do it all. You can't offer 115% market and bonuses and promotions and survive.

Speaker 3:

Turns into a self-fulfilling prophecy. Once your hole drops, once there's no turnover, you're not willing to take as many risks and then you just close up. I think if you just try to offer a fair price and a fair bet now, you can say today, we took on some new punters today and they were betting in thousands. We were taking them on, price was right, we'll let them on.

Speaker 1:

Well, a great example is we've taken a bet on the Indian Premier League cricket where we're standing, one for what was it? $17,000 bet at $2, whatever it was $2.25 or $2.30 or somewhere around that mark. But we've taken the bet on and I think a lot of bookmakers with a new client and a lot of bookmakers are not taking those bets. And I know I spoke to Ryan a little earlier around some of the bets we had last week where we had our multi-winner collect $18,000 and would have collected another $42,000. That's a $20. When I say $20, punter, yes, it was multiple bets, but they were $20 bets. They might have spent $500 to $1,000 over the whole weekend, which is still a decent amount for the average person.

Speaker 3:

It's a bit like on Saturday afternoon our little multiplayer that turned $200 into $24,500.

Speaker 1:

Yep, and you've got to be able to take those bets for the punters too, right, they've got to have the ability to have that win. Now, that's not everyone, it's not everyone you're going to do it, but the genuine players need an ability to have that win. So where does it go from here, mate? Are other states going to follow? That's the big one. I mean. There's some states that really like they do your head in, right, they really really do your head in with how it's all set up. Are they going to follow? Are they going to see this, or is it going to be too late for those states, or too late for some of the racing codes?

Speaker 3:

Well, my hope is that New South Wales follow the lead of Victoria and Queensland and if you have the three main eastern states, that's where the majority of your turnover comes from, in my opinion.

Speaker 1:

Is this racing New South Wales? Is it Greyhound racing New South Wales, harness racing, new South Wales? Is it Greyhound Racing New South Wales, harness Racing, new South Wales? Or is it the state government and treasury or is it? Who is it going to take to drive? And look at this now, because the reality of this is, when it comes to these organisations, it takes time. So if they don't start now, we're having this conversation in 12 months, in two years, and they're only starting. It's too late.

Speaker 3:

Well, we'd like to hope that Racing New South Wales is leading it in New South Wales, obviously because they're 70% of the turnover. Look, I'm a passionate supporter of Greyhound Racing New South Wales. They're the best in the business. They've got the lowest price product in the marketplace. I'm all for robbing the team over at GRNSW, but PVL needs to understand that he's in a competitive marketplace. So if we but also If locked as well right, because that's all of them.

Speaker 1:

It's the racing organizations and the government.

Speaker 3:

Yeah, that's right.

Speaker 1:

That was the second part of it Fox, the one that will destroy us if they raise it from the 15 to 20 percent, which that's quite significant, that on an operation like ours on an operation like ours, well, being transparent, like if you have a look at the second half of the year and what you have to pay in turnover and turnover taxes is astronomical, and you understand why a number of let's call them the big boys and hopefully we're talking about ourselves as a big boy well, we're certainly heading in that right direction to be amongst the big boys. Very, very soon it's chalk and cheese, isn't it?

Speaker 3:

Mate, sometimes I shake my head at the money that I pay to state government treasuries.

Speaker 1:

Yeah.

Speaker 3:

And it's not going back into the racing code. You know they're using it as consolidated revenue. Yeah.

Speaker 1:

And yet what they don't understand is they're going to actually shrink their consolidated revenue with the current model.

Speaker 3:

Yeah, I think even the New South Wales Treasury has already predicted lower returns of up to $400 million out of the pot, but they keep continuing. Now let's shrink the pie instead of enlarging the pie. One of my great mentors always advised me sure we should be increasing turnover.

Speaker 1:

Massive, isn't it? So what's going to play out then, mate? Are we going to? Are some of these guys just going to be? I think that some of them will be just fly what do they call it? Say, fly by night, or whatever it happens. Is that saying where you just they're in and they're out? Are we going to see some new good players? I mean Chase Betts in there, I know there's one or two other really genuine players in this market offering a great service. Are we going to see more of them, or is it just this is more the bookies throwing in their second and third brands that we're seeing some bookmakers kind of collaborating and merging together?

Speaker 3:

I think what you're going to see is you're going to have your good independent, you know, and we'll call ourselves a lower mid-tier bookmaker. At the time being At the time being. And then you know, I know that there's been some new bookmakers that I respect highly in the industry that have come online and have good, strong family pedigree, you know.

Speaker 3:

And I think that's the difference between your better operators moving forward will be the guys and girls that have, you know, got the runs on the board, been around the block. You know, We'll be here in six months' time. We'll be here in six months' time. We'll be here in 18 months' time.

Speaker 1:

We have a model and it's been from the day and as you said we've got players that understand that. We will bet Our genuine players. We will bet our fair bet.

Speaker 3:

And that's you know. I never sit here and say I'm the biggest or the best. I just want to say I'm the fairest. Yeah, and I think greed in this industry and ego is what brings people down. If you just stay consistent and try and offer a fair service, fair bet, you're still going to.

Speaker 1:

It's no different to a lot of the professionals I bet with us too. Right, let's say 90% to 95% of them play fair and those ones we absolutely are. In return, we respect it and we have a great relationship. Yes, you're always going to get your 5% to 10% who are always going to try and skirt things and do things differently, and of course you have to treat them slightly differently.

Speaker 3:

but the vast majority do right. It is the game 99% of people really are pretty good. It's just the one percenters. Don't worry about the one percenters, We'll just worry about the 99%.

Speaker 1:

I like it, mate. So, talking about the 99%, there's going to be 99% of people in New South Wales turn up to the gardens because they heard Harris Bookmaking is turning up to bet them all night long. That's the rumour that's going around New South Wales. Is it true? Is?

Speaker 3:

Harris.

Speaker 1:

Bookmaking standing at the gardens.

Speaker 3:

Yes, the big man is going to be on track.

Speaker 1:

In his purple shirt? Is he going to be standing out in his bright purple Barney shirt? Mate, Are you turning up as Barney or are you turning up as Damien?

Speaker 3:

No, I'm turning up as Damien, but they'll find me. I'll be betting nice and competitive. I'll be above the New South Wales tab. Fixed odds at all times.

Speaker 1:

I like it.

Speaker 3:

And if you want to be backing box one in the 7.15, you better be coming and seeing me.

Speaker 1:

I love it, damo, I love it. Well, that was my next question. My last question was what are you going to lay? What are you happy to lay? It's a silly question because I know when I ask you it's whatever the favourite is in a big race, you're going to be laying it, you're going to be top of the world. What do you actually like in the race demo? I know, as a bookmaker, it's always about you know what can you lay? The pricing, all the rest of it. Is there a sneaky pick? If you were a punter, put yourself as a punter. I know that's not easy for you. What would you back and what would be a rough tip?

Speaker 3:

that you would back. Look, I thought the Tasmanian dog went really well and I think there's plenty of upside.

Speaker 1:

Yeah, I think Santa's Raiders Guide was very, very good, wasn't it?

Speaker 3:

Yeah, but then you know there's tips around for Ritz at Piper Like.

Speaker 1:

Wildfire. He's like Wildfire. We spoke about this last week because we laid like Wildfire. Now it's a dog that can be extremely hard to catch, but it's extremely talented. If you liked, it is it value? It's, it's yeah, it's going to be around the eight, nine, ten dollar mark, I would imagine.

Speaker 3:

I think each way, I think each way. And if it lobs lobs near them, it can blow them away. But it's a typical 700 meter, isn't it?

Speaker 1:

You know too many variables, too many variables.

Speaker 3:

And look, the Queenslander is going to be very, very strongly supported off what people may think is a good draw.

Speaker 1:

Yeah, it's an interesting one, especially with the pace that's going to be in that race. Raiders Guide loves the eight. I know I spoke a little earlier with Ryan about it Really really good. But one thing we do know with you out there bookmaking, whoever's out on track is going to have a great night. You always, as you said, you're betting absolutely great percentages, great odds. You're looking after the punters and I'm sure they'll enjoy a chat to you and a bit of banter as well.

Speaker 3:

Let's have the fun and the banter you know, bring it track side.

Speaker 1:

Love it, mate. Look forward to chatting to you next week around how you actually went at the gardens and if you got the better of the punters or if the punters got the better of you. They're pretty smart up Newcastle, mate. Thanks, eve. Stay, mate, chat to you later. See you, buddy Cheers. Mate. Thanks for joining us on the we Bet you, pod. Please follow the show so you don't miss a thing. If you know a mate that needs to hear this episode, make sure you share this episode with them too. Rating and reviewing the show makes a big difference and I really respect the time and energy that takes. In return, I can guarantee I'll be showing up every single week with another action-packed episode. Chasebet encourages responsible gambling. Imagine what you could.