The Steep Stuff Podcast
Welcome to the Steep Stuff Podcast, your source for all things Sub-Ultra Mountain Running
The Steep Stuff Podcast
Broken Arrow Ascent Preview
Welcome to a special preview of what might be the most competitive mountain race ever assembled on American soil. As the Broken Arrow Skyrace approaches, we're diving deep into the Ascent competition (formerly known as the VK) where the stakes couldn't be higher – the top four American men and women will earn spots on Team USA for the World Mountain Running Championships.
The star power in this year's field is simply astounding. Patrick Kipngeno returns to defend his title against an unexpected challenger – the legendary Killian Jornet, who's taking a detour from Western States preparation to test himself on American soil. Perhaps most exciting is the Broken Arrow debut of American mountain running GOAT Joe Gray, bringing decades of uphill expertise to a course that rewards pure running ability over hiking strength.
On the women's side, we're witnessing what could be the making of a historic rivalry. Kenya's Joyce Njeru, undefeated in American races, faces rising star Anna Gibson, whose trajectory suggests she might become one of the all-time greats in mountain running. Veterans like Ali McLaughlin mix with breakthrough talents like Allie Ostrander and Oakley Olsen to create a fascinatingly deep field.
We break down the modified course (3.61 miles with 2,840 feet of gain), analyze the key contenders, and make our predictions for both podium spots and Team USA qualification. The international talent is so strong that Americans might struggle to crack the top five, especially in the men's competition, making this one of the most compelling mountain races to watch this season.
Whether you're filling out your FanTrail fantasy picks or simply wanting to understand the significance of this incredible event, our detailed preview gives you everything you need to appreciate the epic battle that's about to unfold on the slopes of Palisades Tahoe.
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What's up, boys and girls, welcome back to the Steep Stuff Podcast. I'm your host, james Lauriello, bringing you an episode today for the Baroques and Aeros sky race, the one you've all been waiting for. Potentially the most competitive race We'll see, we'll see. I don't know, it depends on who shows up but might be the most competitive race ever assembled on American soil, on the sub-ultra category that is. This is going to be a preview episode for the ascent, formerly known as the vk. I still like to call it the vk, so you'll notice. In this episode I mistakenly call it the vk very often. That said, I hope you guys get a lot of uh, hope you guys get a lot of value out of this one for your free child fantasy picks. Uh, this one meant a lot to be able to kind of preview this one. Uh, give us our give some picks, give some educated guesses on who we think is going to perform well, give some shout outs to friends and family at the podcast and do our thing. I'm joined by a very special co-host, good friend Mr Nick Tusa, and yeah, we had a really good time doing this one. So I can't believe it's Broken Arrow week. Hope you guys who are going to the race racing have a wonderful time, and those, those spectating, enjoy it just as much. So, without further ado, I hope you guys enjoy this one.
Speaker 1:Broken Arrow Ascent 2025 preview episode with co-host Nick Tusa. It's time. Thank you, ladies and gentlemen. We are live, nick Tussauds. Welcome back to the Steep Stuff Podcast. How's it going, man?
Speaker 2:Oh man, it's going great. I am so excited for this weekend. Been waiting a long time.
Speaker 1:I can't believe it, dude. This is year two, year two of doing these. Year two. Yeah, ladies and gentlemen, we're here for the well, I almost called it the VK. Here for Broken Arrow Weekend. We're going to be previewing the ascent, the 23k and the 46k. We'll probably break it up into into three episodes or three mini episodes for everyone, but we'll probably start off with the ascent, if that works for you. Yep, absolutely. Oh man, dude, I can't believe like we're finally here. Like this went by. This went by fast. It's like I feel like we just did sonipi with our boy tom hooper. And and yeah, I didn't include tom this time. Shout out to tom's too. He's too East coast for something like this.
Speaker 2:He's out there, though, isn't he? He is out there. Yeah, he is Okay, right on.
Speaker 1:Yeah, yeah, man, I don't know, what do you, what do you think it's so far? I mean, like I think, if all goes to plan with minus Jim Wamsley, I might be one of the most competitive races ever assembled on american soil. The ascent it looks to be um when you're looking at rankings from itcher scores, when you're looking at rankings from utmb indices, um between the men's, men and women's field.
Speaker 1:This is, I mean, it's just bonkers, man, it's bonkers oh yeah, this men's field is like 20 deep of like absolute studs, people that people that oh, do damage yeah it's funny I was texting paul kirsch and and, uh tom, like the, about us atf questions, just because, like dude, I don't really think outside of we have maybe three americans that can get in the top five. That's how loaded it is with international talent coming to this and there's a good possibility we might only get one american in the top three or top four, which is fucking crazy. Different, different style, a different story, I think, on the women to me.
Speaker 1:I see, on the women like more of a clear-cut winner I think there's someone that stands out to me um interesting potentially our reigning 2025, us mountain running champion. Um, that just like, kind of kind of like, just gave me the idea that, like, maybe, maybe she, she repeats I think it's, I think it's possible, so I think so too. We'll see what happens. Yeah, dude, how have you been, how's everything going? You, you've been racing a bunch.
Speaker 2:You just got back how was twisted fork?
Speaker 2:yeah, twisted fork was, was awesome it's. Uh, finn did a great job. If you guys didn't know, finn Melanson, a single track, he. He started up this race called twisted fork. Uh, I did the 30 K over the weekend. Uh, threw down with a bunch of a bunch of salt Lake city guys. Um God, they are crushers, man, they know, they know how to run in the heat. I don't know how to run in the heat, so that definitely hurt me a little bit, but uh, but yeah. So it was a great day out there and, um, yeah, great course, park city is incredible, beautiful right.
Speaker 2:Yeah, oh yeah, so, and then, what GoPro games the week before. That was really well. I'm sure we'll chat about that. Some people in our in our list here did GoPro games and did really well, and I expect them to do pretty well here at a broken arrow.
Speaker 1:So sweet man off to a good start for the season I love to hear yeah, gopro is crazy, you got to. You get to see joe in action like oh man, that was.
Speaker 2:I can't wait to talk about that.
Speaker 1:That was something to behold. All right, so for the audience, I'm going to get into some like stats on the on the ascent course itself. So it's changed a little bit. Man, this I've heard. So jade bellsberg told me it's the same course from last year. I don't think so it's slightly changed, um, and the only reason I say that is it kind it ends kind of on wishy shoe and then excuse me if I butchered the pronunciation of this issue, but then it kind of looks like it descends a little bit into the finish line, like maybe close to like where that tram is, um, so there's like almost like a slight descent at the end, um, so it's not quite a vk, it's three, it's actually a little bit more. It's more of a runnable course. So it's 3.61 miles, so a little bit shorter than maybe the 2023 course, but only 2 840 feet of vertical. So it's still about four 400 ish feet, maybe a little bit less than that shy of an actual true vertical kilometer, which is, I guess that's why they called it the Ascent the.
Speaker 2:Ascent yeah.
Speaker 1:Yeah, make it a little more true and tried to. Yeah, dude, there's actually a section. I'd say it's probably it's about between mile 1.25 to about two miles, so there's maybe like a little bit less than a half mile section, maybe a little more. Actually, that's actually descent, like you're actually going down, just kind of crazy. That's going to shake things up. Yeah, it's a weird course, right Like we've seen this from years past where everybody goes out, you know, hair on fire, super crazy.
Speaker 1:It's obviously a mass start with everyone. There's no waves in this, but it goes up this like weird ski hill and I've actually been on the ski hill before and it depends on, like what, the type of like what's going on in the year, like something, how much traffic is on it, because sometimes it's kind of stomped out and it's a little more of a like a wider path and sometimes there's like plants on it, like last year, if you watched, uh, some of the videos, there's's plants sticking out of it. It just looks so weird. It's like a field and you got to run up that and then it condenses and squeezes out to a road and that's where it starts. I guess it's on a road for a, a weird course.
Speaker 1:It's gonna favor more of the runner, if you will like whoever can stay on their feet for the running, less the hiker, I think, in my opinion, like less the um, like I don't know if this, as much as I'm a giant fan of cam smith and I do think he's gonna make the team, I don't think this actually favors cam as much. He's more of a rut vk guy where it's all like, yes, you're running, I mean, in order to win that most of it, you're running most of it, but it's not as steep, if you will like the rut vk. If I remember right, it's like 3600 feet, it's like more than a v. So I don't know, it's it's gonna be interesting. I think this favors more of your patrick's, your joe's, potentially your killian's, your christians, your david sinclair's, um, you know those types of guys.
Speaker 1:And then on the women's side, I think it's gonna you're, we're gonna see probably a potential rematch between joyce and anna. In my opinion, I think anna wants that scalp. I asked anna on the pod on her post centipede interview. I was like you want that scalp, don't you just like? Well, last year joyce was really fit, but we'll see what happens. I don't know what about? What about you? Do you see any storylines? Obviously, I think the big one is like jim not being there this year.
Speaker 2:That's a bummer, you know jim not being there and joe gray his first time being here. Um, I mean, he's, he's a veteran in the sport, so to see him coming here for the first time is is pretty crazy. Uh, but he's coming here for for the competition. Like we said, this is so deep, this is where he thrives. Uh, I saw him two weekends ago at uh, at GoPro and the the climate. Gopro is about a 35 to almost 40% grade. He did not hike a step. He did not hike a single step. He hike a single step. He ran every single bit of it. So, like, like you were just saying, runnable, he's, he's here for it. I mean, I think he's gonna do really really well. Um, I'm mostly excited for him for sure I think so too, man.
Speaker 1:I mean joe, this would be joe's. Oh man, let's say he's the first if he's the first american, I think this makes him like that's like his 14th national championship. Something like that and I don't even know how many like world championships he's been Like. I think he's he's been a world champion two or three times. I should know that, um, he's going to be mad at me for that. It's going to be so many.
Speaker 1:It's hard would be special. I I reached out to him when we we talked for a little bit. I was supposed to have him on for a preview, but I think we we agreed that we're gonna do something post race and talk a little bit more, just because there's a lot of travel back and forth. He raced mount washington um last week the mount washington road race. Oh yeah, he got second to alex ricard um, alex got his number dude, that's not the first time alex has had again yeah, you got him at sunup he last or back in 2023 as well uh, in the sunup ascent.
Speaker 1:So, yeah, joe's I mean, like I said, arguably one of the greatest uphill runners of all time and you know for sure, the best american uphill runner of all time, alex ricard, is a canadian and still very much, I think, in his prime, in his low 30s. So I think he's just, you know, joe's getting he's in his 40s a little bit. So I think joe's gonna look the man in the mirror and he's got something to prove, I think, still again oh yeah, these young whippersnappers. What's up, man?
Speaker 2:yeah, do you think he is? It seemed like he's let his schedule into into this race, like this is his main kind of objective here.
Speaker 1:I think he's peaking for it I mean just based off of, like he.
Speaker 1:I think he was a little perturbed that alex actually beat him last week. I think that was a very good little tune up because it was against some of the same competition, like remy larue was there, david sinclair was there, I mean, and joe, just you know, like him, and alex had maybe a five to ten second gap on most of those guys. Um, so I think the shape is there. Um, I just think it comes down to, you know, this isn't mount washington, right, it's like that. Mount washington, too, is all with that race was only a three.
Speaker 1:It was not as steep. It was like a three mile, 3.6 mile, because it was cut short, uh more altitude yeah, race with only 2300 feet of vert, so maybe 600 feet, 500 feet lower of like less vertical so and it's on a road, whereas, like broken arrow, is going to be more steep, more technical, more opportunities to make mistakes.
Speaker 1:Um, yeah, I don't know. It's going to be interesting. I think a lot of it depends on. I think joe was peaking in my opinion. I think he is in the process of peaking for this um, and then maybe take some downtime and then, you know, peak again for worlds I see him making the team. I don't see him not making the team. I just don't know how many americans are going to be in the top five in my opinion not that many, um, but maybe I'm wrong. What?
Speaker 2:do you?
Speaker 1:think about killian. What's the deal with killian there?
Speaker 2:well, I've heard some things. Um, in his training. I'm sure people have been also heard about it. Um, he's been doing some pretty crazy stuff. He just PR a climb. That he does very often in training. So for him to be PR in a climb that is kind of a staple in his training says something. Um, he's very fit. I know he's training for Western, but Killian can do it all he it's. It's this is I mean he had the, he had the one, he had the vertical kilometer record in 2021 or something like that. Um, and he's good at this stuff. It's. Yeah, I won't say anything more about my picks yet, but uh, but yeah, I have him up there for sure.
Speaker 1:Let's talk. Let's talk some of the women. What storylines of what women stood out to you. Ali Ostrander, for instance, I think she shocked a lot of us. I just didn't say shock, it's a little bit much. I'd say Ali Ostrander overperformed to what. I thought, the expectation was at Sunapee. She had a great race.
Speaker 2:She did great.
Speaker 1:Yeah, in the top 10 there. So that kind of I would put her higher up on the board, like I think she's got a good shot at making team USA. A couple other names that I saw on there you know Jess Bray had had some success last year at the VK and she's going to be racing both the VK and 46 K.
Speaker 1:You know some new names too. I like Andy Cornish and Oakley Olsen, who are both alums of the pod. Some women they're going to be shaking it up. I see a lot less international women in the VK, as opposed to the men's race. I see, obviously, jade Bellsburg as a mainstay. She's gotten second at this race in 2023. She got top 10 last year, totally capable of winning it. And then obviously there's the you know the former champion from last year, 2024 choice naru, and joyce is a powerhouse.
Speaker 1:I'm kind of curious to see, like where joyce's fitness is at, especially you gotta remember kenyan athlete. So altitude's not a problem. They regularly train 8 000 feet anyway. That's kind of the high point of this course. So if anything, it's kind of going down in altitude for them. Um, I think there was how do I say this? Like she didn't really have the best of races, um, specifically in japan. I think it was what it was like. I think we had her pegged as the favorite um and sarah alonzo was able to. She kind of fell back um, so she didn't have the race that she was supposed to have, and I don't think she had a great race at great china wall either.
Speaker 2:So I don't know both technical, more technical races. I think that she shines on the more runnable stuff, like broken arrow is um. One thing to note about her is she is undefeated in the us. She's never lost in the us. She won the 23k last year, she won the vk and she won at Mammoth all pretty convincingly. And they're all at altitude. So clearly, altitude US not an issue for her. But I think the story, like you said, I think it's Ana versus Joyce and then Allie just having her back, like she comes back every year. It's so fun seeing her. She's done this so many times, so much, so much experience. And then then, like you said, jess excited to see her back after taking fifth.
Speaker 1:Um, yeah, it's joyce's oh man, she's fun to watch joyce undefeated. That's interesting. Yeah, you know what dude david um david norris made a really good observation we were talking about, uh, our, I was there the same day with him at uh cirque brighton and you've raced that race. That's a very technical course, like arguably the most technical circ series course that there was.
Speaker 1:Unfortunately it's not on the circuit this year, but and one of the observations that he made was patrick and philomon, like were, I wouldn't say, stupid slow on the technical stuff but significantly slower on the technical stuff granted granted, patrick still won the damn race, but like no, uh, if there is a weakness, um, as far as you know, you gotta remember, like patrick, one of the best in the world, um, you know, one of the most complete athletes there is probably going into this, um, joyce, I would imagine somewhere up there as well. Both kenyan athletes, I think. If there is a weakness based off of I did look a little bit into some of the strava data but, like um, it's just not technical running. They're not good at technical running. They are substantially better at, uh, you know, anything that's going to be fast. So I don't know. I, broken arrow is not a technical course. I don't know if there's any opportunities to exploit moves on them. If you find the most technical sections and you may try to, that's where you can try to make a move.
Speaker 2:But good luck with that, but you don't have to worry about technicality on the ascent At least. It's pure power, pure fitness. Yeah, see what?
Speaker 1:you can do, what do you? All right, so let's get into some questions here. What do you think fitness-wise is going to take to win this race, men or women? What's the 5K time? What's the 10K time?
Speaker 2:What's the translation there? 10k has got to be sub might be sub 28.
Speaker 2:I think it might be sub 28. Yeah, I think it might be sub 28, I think. And then 5k, I mean definitely in the 13s, yeah for sure. Um, I'd be curious when joe gray could run right now, but now he's just, I feel like he's so, just, so good at the ups. I don't know how he is, I don't know how his flat speed is, but, um, but yeah now, killian, right now. Oh my god, killian could probably run a. I bet he could run a 28, 27 minute five or, uh, 10k.
Speaker 1:I could see that yeah, christian yeah, oh, christian christian's slim reaper bro slim reaper. Uh, what do you think of the women's side? What do you think? I'm curious because, like I, I would wonder what anna. I don't even know what Ana's 5k or 10k PR. I should know that, given the fact that she's had so much trading.
Speaker 2:Sub-15 5k, definitely sub-15. Yeah, I don't know about 10k, sub-32s, 31?.
Speaker 1:That makes sense. Hard to say, do you think? I don't think there's going to be any surprises. I think the usual suspects- Yep 100%.
Speaker 1:Yeah, I don't think anyone's going to come out of the woodwork here and surprise us. I think, maybe, where the surprise and the opportunity to make a superstar is like what Taylor Stack did, for instance, at Sunapee, where you're maybe in the podium mix or maybe in the top five, top 10, where you're going to surprise some people. Now remember, this is for men, for women, so there's no resume. This is show up, throw down and the best men and women on the day are going to get their spot to Worlds, which I think is better. It's a knock down, drag down kind of fight, whereas, like, it's all comes down to who's fitter, who wants it more, who's going to be the man or woman on the day to to pull this off? Yeah, it's going to be, it's going to be interesting. So I don't know.
Speaker 1:I think there's opportunities to make some superstars, like I guess it's itsen's able to do on the women's side, like uh, last year 2024 national champion, our collegiate national title holder, I should say um, you know, had a great race at cirque series snowbird. Like has all the potential in the world. Like ncaa steepler. Uh, like arguably could have been fitter this year than like anna was last year coming off a track season, so it's like how does that, how does that factor in? You know, I don't know, yeah.
Speaker 2:So so much talent from the trail team I'm one of them is gonna, is gonna break through, I think, here this weekend. No, I agree all right, you want to do picks.
Speaker 1:Let's do picks. All right, you want to start. What do we want to start with? Let's start with the women.
Speaker 2:Ladies, first the women okay, um, I'll start down. I'm gonna do five, five to one, and let me see, here is that one, two, okay, yeah, I got my four women. Four women, right, make the us team. Four women, make the us, yep, okay. So on fifth um, I have rachel to my check. She's been here before. I think she's hungry after after centipede um, maybe didn't have the result that she wanted there. She is very good at uh, at climbing, so I expect her to, I expect her to make the us team. I, I, just I. I feel like it wouldn't be a us team without her um on some team. And she finally gets her last opportunity and I think she's gonna, I think she's gonna follow through here. Um, and then fourth, I have jess jess brezzo. Uh, she took fifth last year. I don't know if she's done a ton of racing this year so far. I didn't look at her ultra sign up but uh, chianti, chianti, she okay.
Speaker 1:Oh yeah, it was like the. I don't care remember if it's the 50k or the 25k, but she did have a good race there, awesome yeah, she's like I said she's been here before um, great climber still, probably.
Speaker 2:Um, she was in the alps with with jim for so long and I think she gained so much, so much strength and so much fitness from that. Um, I think it's still carrying over. Third, um, ali mclaughlin. She's been here so many times. Uh, I just feel like third. I feel like there are two runners that are better than her at the moment. She, I mean she's getting older, but I mean she's just, she's like Joe Gray. She's been here for so, so long. She's been on so many teams. This is absolutely nothing new to her. She was third last year, uh, so I expect her to be to be third again.
Speaker 2:Um, and then a second, uh, I have Joyce, uh, taking Joyce Nauru taking her first loss on American soil and, uh, that's going to be because of Anna. Uh, I think Anna's on a different level right now, but we saw a couple of weekends ago at Sunapee. It was um, it was special. She, uh, she put on a show and, uh, I expect that to to carry on. Um, there's probably not much she needed to do in between now and broken arrow, maybe a few sharpening workouts, but, uh, but if she has that fitness that she had. Um, yeah, I expect her to win this Um again. She's been here before. She took second last year. Uh, she's here for redemption. She, like you said, she's gonna. She's gonna get that scalp on joyce, she's hungry dude.
Speaker 1:I, I brought it up like I, even like I. I asked her on the pod. I was like yo, you, you trying to get that job, like what's like I and I I basically said it that way and she was like she there's a very clear and concise answer like she wants to win this race. Um, it's funny, dude, I don't I, and I'll say that I said this before.
Speaker 1:I said this again and you and I have said this behind closed doors, like I don't think we really know yet like the potential of Anna Gibson, Like I think on a Gibson might be like turn out to be like one of the greatest female mountain runners of all time. When it's all said and done, I really do. I just don't think we've seen um, we just have. I think we've only scratched the surface is what I'm trying to say.
Speaker 2:Like, I think she's going to have an amazing career she reminds me of, like 2019, grayson murphy, like just just just started winning and it's just going to continue on from there yeah, no, I agree, I agree and she's only got, like I said, only gotten better, only improved, only gotten more stoked. So yeah, it's just only 20, 26, 25, something like that.
Speaker 1:I think she's at mid-20s young, yeah, at least a decade left in this. So yeah, she's it's. It's crazy to see like what, what, how things are gonna unfold, especially given that she's already won her first mountain running title all right, but yeah, there's a few names, too that I want to mention, just like that.
Speaker 2:Have a chance to it at being in the top top five Jade Bellsburg, ninth last year. Sydney peterson, 12th last year. Andy cornish, 17th last year. Laura hamilton she was 19th. Then you have ali ostrander I don't believe that she's. She's raced this before, but we saw what she did a couple weekends ago. Uh, janelle links, another one excited to have her back. Uh, race for a ton 2023. Uh, at zerk series, at all the zerk series events, she's. She's a heck of an uphiller. Um, wouldn't be surprised to honestly see her up there too. Um, laurel moyer I believe she's an east coaster. Uh, oakley olsen, like you mentioned, and then it'll be fun to see. I don't know how she's gonna do because she's pregnant right now, but mk sullivan, it's, yeah, it's super cool that she's going out't know how she's going to do because she's pregnant right now, but, mk Sullivan, it's, it's super cool that she's going out and she's she's doing this while she's I don't know what four months pregnant.
Speaker 1:I should not confirm with Danny if she's actually racing. I didn't even ask she she.
Speaker 2:she raced the other weekend at a race in Reno and she took second on a half marathon. She did on trail in 130-something, so she's still a pretty dang fit. Wow, shout out to MC.
Speaker 1:Sullivan, really cool, cool story, yeah, no big fan.
Speaker 2:Big fan.
Speaker 1:It was cool getting to chat with her at the Sunapee thing.
Speaker 2:That was so fun.
Speaker 1:You listen to these people on there. I don't know, maybe it's the same for me, but you listen to these people on there. I don't know, maybe it's the same for me, but like you listen to these people on their podcasts and then, like you get to like actually meet them, it's like, oh, this is weird, I don't know. I, I, all of these names, I, I just have an in like different order of like people that I think are going to do pretty well here. I'm going to Team USA that are foreigners.
Speaker 2:Got it.
Speaker 1:They're foreigners. That's not a right way to say it Are people of, not of American, not Americans. All right, jesus Christ.
Speaker 2:It's going to be a long day.
Speaker 1:Okay.
Speaker 1:So I'm going to start Sixth place, I'm going to go sixth place, I'm gonna go oakley olsen. Um, yeah, I, I definitely think, like dude, I I'm just like very interested to see she didn't race at sunipi and I think if she would have raced at sunipi she would have given reena a run for her money. Reena was um, she was kind of a standout there. She took fifth place. Like reena crushes. She just won them out.
Speaker 1:Washington rotors oakley is interesting to me and the reason I'll say is because, like steepler, super fit, just made ncaas um coming off in like an insane road and track season. I don't know I, I just have a feeling that, like she, the fitness is there. She's at grand, she just finished up the block um at grand lake with the trail team, with the trail team. Yeah, I, I don't know she's um, I don't know. I think it has a lot of potential and she's backed it up Like dude. She got eighth at the most of last year's most competitive Cirque series race, on the women's side, at least at Cirque Snowbird. So she can back it up on the trails and she was the collegiate national title holder for the trails as well at Cirque Snowbird. So I don't know for the trails as well at Cirque Snowbird, so I don't know. I just have a weird feeling that it's a different Oakley that has more experience and possibly fitter and can throw down with a bunch of these ladies.
Speaker 2:So we'll see. And I think track fitness for some reason track fitness really translates well to ascent and DK races. There's something about it, it really does. If this was maybe the 23K, maybe I wouldn't say that as much, but this type of race it's. Yeah, I like that pick.
Speaker 1:I do. I think it's like you said it's something with and I would say it, I don't know how much about the 23K, but for vertical races and like, maybe like an up-down, like mountain classic, the track is a great place to train like. It is just an amazing place to get super fit. You could build a crazy run economy. You just do really well. So, yeah, I don't know, I think it's that's like the secret weapon to. That was a secret weapon on my block until I got hurt, fuck. But yeah, the track does great, it's good stuff. Um, all right. Moving on, fifth place, I'm gonna go. Ali ostrander um, I think ali did enough to show me that ali's got more fitness and maybe more more upside for this year than I originally thought. Um, I don't know, I don't want to say we counted her out, but like when we did the sun and pea preview, we got kind of mixed information that like she had just had done her first track workout, her first workout, um, in several months. So like we weren't really sure where to put her. And she goes and shows up and takes a top 10 spot at Sunapee, which was insanely competitive. So yeah, I don't know. I have a funny feeling that Allie is going to do pretty well in this race. I could definitely see her performing to expectations or above her expectations. In fourth place I'm going to go Jade Bellsburg Jade top 10 last year.
Speaker 1:I just had a good chat with her on the pod Top 10 last year and I think she got what Second in 2023. So she's been on the podium. She knows how to race these races Incredible range. She can race these long ultras and she can race middle distance and the vk just like super strong athlete. And she kind of like was kind of gave me the play-by-play on how she intends to race this race. She said last year, coming in, she was a little bit more confident and the confidence was a problem for her. Like she got a little too overzealous and blew herself up. Remember the course in 2023 changed to the course in 2024. It was two different courses technically, so she kind of blew herself on that. In my opinion, because this is a very similar course starts off in the same area. Jade knows how to race this. Start off a little bit easier. Don't necessarily blow yourself up Once it funnels out to the road. You can make your move and I think that's what she intends to do so, if she has any degree of the similar fitness that she's had in previous years.
Speaker 1:I, I see her there in the top four. Um in third place I have same as you. I'm gonna go with ali mac um. Got to witness a couple, you know. I saw ali mac uh absolutely demolish a stair master when I was at the pt a few weeks ago, just before son of p, and I was astonished. Um, obviously it's a little home cooking because I'm a friend of alley's. Alley's a friend like I. Just, she's an amazing human and I want her to do well and I want her to get on the podium. So, but she also has the ability to do it and has been there before. So I, I, I see alley being a repeat. I think she gets on the podium.
Speaker 1:I see her going back to team usa. Um in second place. I am gonna go. Joyce naru uh. You know, dude, I see joyce going anywhere from winning the race to falling in the top five.
Speaker 1:Um, I don't know, like I said, if it's the same joyce that shows up. Um, that was in japan or china, maybe not. Maybe that was too a little bit too early, like we talked about before she is, uh, she does train at altitude. She is very good at this race. She is undefeated at this race, um, in both distances. So I I do see her getting her first defeat, though in first place I'm going to go on a gibson, uh, like we said, I just don't think we scratched the surface on anna gibson yet. I think we'll go down, uh, when it's all said and done, as one of the greatest females of all time, and I think she's just getting started. In my opinion, I think we are very early on in her career and this is just, this is just the beginning. So I see Anna, I see Ali making both teams. So team USA, the top four women going to team USA, going to confrank are going to be on a Gibson Ali Mac, ali Ostrander and Oakley Olson. That's my pick Women to watch out for.
Speaker 1:First one. First and foremost, andy Cornish. Andy is a beast. She lives in the Tetons. Um, jackson, wyoming, very solid uphill athlete, very focused on this race. This is an A race for her, so I could see her doing very well. Um, janelle links to someone I wrote down as well, sydney Peterson. Uh, sydney most recently had an amazing top 10 finish at sunupy wouldn't be surprised. I see her easily as a top 10 in this race. Uh, wouldn't be surprised to see her make the team. Uh, can't leave out jess brayu.
Speaker 1:Um lara hamilton. Australian athlete, very good in the vk, very talented. Um had a extremely good result at work, both at worlds, um, when she raced for Team Australia back in 2023 now and last year, 2024,. She had a good result racing in the vertical in Italy. So very good VK racer. It's going to be interesting.
Speaker 1:We're going to see a lot of dichotomy here. This is not a super steep VK course. It's who is the best suited for this type of course. Right, it's not so much a hiker's course. You got to be able to run this thing. So, yeah, I don't know, it's going to be interesting there. Another name, and one we definitely cannot sleep on, is Rachel. To my check dude, rachel has been on every US team. Basically, yeah, I see her either getting in or just being just off, so it's going to be interesting. She's a little bit better of an up-down mountain classic athlete, maybe a little bit less of a vertical athlete, so but I still nonetheless can see her getting on this team. Just from experience, from fitness, all these things you can, never cannot, rachel. So yeah, that's what I got for the women there Solid.
Speaker 2:All right. On to the men, all right. Uh, so I have six. I've topped six year because four four of them right Are going to worlds. Uh, so in six I have one of the best climbers, I think, in Colorado, tyler McCandless. We saw him a couple of weekends ago at Sunapee. He had a phenomenal. His climbs were phenomenal and the downhills kind of got to him. I heard you talk with him after that. He was having some trouble with some stuff in his eyes coming down, eyes watering, just couldn't figure that out. Well, guess what? He's got a chance to redeem himself here. You don't need to run downhill, you just need to power it up. That's why I think he's going to make Team USA. He's going to be that last slot.
Speaker 2:Fifth, I have Andy Wacker. He's done some pretty incredible things this year on the road. He's done some incredible things on Gold Hill and Boulder. His climbing is next level. I think that the descents is maybe what held him back a couple weekends ago. So I think that the dissents is maybe what held him back a couple of weekends ago. So I think he's going to redeem himself here and we're going to see him right up there.
Speaker 2:And in fifth, fourth, christian Allen, he's fourth last year. The dude shows up. He last weekend, 15 K twisted fork, destroyed, like it was. It was, it was a pounding Like. He just went out there and and did his thing and I expect him to to come here he's, he's a guy that can just empty the tank, uh, like no one else. And I know he's was dealing with some injury and whatnot, but I know he was training with you know, some of the best marathoners in the world prior to that and his leg speed is probably as good as it's ever been, even though he was injured. Like you're still going to get, you're still going to take in all of that. That doesn't just disappear. And then, third legend Joe Gray really wanted to put him in first, but I just think that there are there.
Speaker 2:This is the most competitive, one of the most competitive races we've ever seen, and it's just, it's. It's hard for me to to to put him above some of the people that I'm going to mention here, but uh, but I can't wait to see him be sporting a usa kit in his 40s. It's going to be so cool, uh, so great for the sport. He's, he, he's. He's a legend, uh, yeah. And then second, uh one.
Speaker 2:Last year, patrick kip and yago. I don't think he's going to win. This year I think he's, and the reason I say that is because Killian's here. As much as I want to pick Patrick to win, I think that Killian what I have seen him do on Strava lately has just been ridiculous. I think he's ready for any type of weather, if it's hot, if it's cold, if it's windy, if it's whatever it is. Killian is just, he's Killian man and he doesn't lose. And I think that this would be incredible for him to double back. Win this, win Western. That is a statement. He can retire, he can do whatever he wants after that and he is first ballot Hall of Famer. No, but no, it's going to be a really fun scene Seeing people that are older in the sport.
Speaker 2:Joe and Killian go after these young guys like patrick. Patrick's still very young, um, yeah, it's just. And christian allen, it's just. And then andy wacker and tyler it's. It's actually a lot of these, these older athletes, that that I actually noticed, that I picked, but, um, but this type of race just vks in a sense. I think that's something you can do so much later in your career. I mean you for these people that are getting into ultras and stuff, like you know, throw yourself in an ascent or a vk once in a while to test out your fitness, because this is, it's not hard on your body. It shows kind of where you're at in your fitness. Um, yeah, I think it's great and I love that they're coming here before. I love that killian's coming here before western. It's similar to what Jim did. He couldn't get it done last year, but I think Killian can get it done this year.
Speaker 1:All right, I like it. I love all these takes are possible, dude. It's funny how I don't know I'm not a Killian hater but I'm also a skeptic. I don't know, I just am a Hawaiian, I'm a Joe guy man. It is what it is. All right, let me get into it. All right. So I'm going down all the way down to eighth. I have to go down to eighth to find my fourth American.
Speaker 2:No way.
Speaker 1:Oh yeah, dude, there's so much European talent in this and they just spank our ass, dude, when it comes to these vertical races. All right, so in eighth I'm going to go David Sinclair. David did race a very close race to Joe on Saturday at Mount Washington, like he was like I don't know, it might have been like 10 or 15 seconds off of Joe and Alex Ricard. So Sinclair's fit man and the only thing he could do right now is run uphill. So this is do or die for him. He'll probably like just off a resume alone. He's probably the easiest person to pick from a resume spot for the marathon distance, but nonetheless I'm sure the dude is a voracious competitor, wants to earn himself a spot, or at least going to try to. So I'm going to go eighth place with David Sinclair. In seventh place I'm going to go Slim Reaper, mr Christian Allen. In seventh place I'm going to go Slim Reaper, mr Christian Allen. I think we haven't seen much out of Christian because he's been coming back from injury, dude, and I think he's slowly but surely getting better and better. I mean, he went and won the Twisted Fork 15K on Saturday and beat Devin Pancake, who's no joke, beat some dudes. So in my opinion, I think Christian's coming back and might be peaking at the right time. I see him in seven. He's a very good VK athlete. He was right behind him and Mika were right behind Jim last year and it was pretty impressive to see. It's crazy to think that Jim beat that man, because I think of Jim as like a dinosaur at this point, but shout out to Jim no offense to Jim, but it's just crazy to see, like, where Christian, you know where he's at and where he's going. So I see Christian getting seventh and the only reason I have him a little bit lower down there is just because of, like you know, the comeback from from injury, from that stress reaction he had in his leg.
Speaker 1:In sixth place I'm going to go cam Smith. You know, after cam got himself on Team USA for the up-down, I texted him and he's like this is what we do, baby. And I was like, oh my God, cam's the best. Oh, boy, dude, the nicest, kindest human I've ever met in my life. I'm such a fan of Cam's. It's interesting.
Speaker 1:This particular course doesn't suit Cam as well, but we didn't get the best version of Cam on this course Last year. You gotta remember cam was coming back from injury. That's why, like, if you look at his his stats on this particular course last year, like kim's always, like he's delivered some of the most amazing performances in the broken arrow vk. Like, think back to when we first learned about eli right him and cam back and forth racing each other on the live stream. We were all watching it like it was like one of the most amazing like things in our sport we've ever seen. Cam would make a move and then Eli would cover and then finally Cam got away in the last I don't know how many seconds, dude, that was the best race I have ever seen in my life. When you think about it. So, yeah, I get so excited thinking about it.
Speaker 1:And I just know Cam. I talked to him. He said he's locked in. This one really matters for him and the reason is because, yes, he's stoked that he, his true opportunity to shine, is going to be and these are his words is going to be in the vertical when it comes to Ken Frank. So, dude, I think we're going to get a Cam that's ready to rock and roll. So super excited for that Fifth place. I'm going to go. Killian Jornet, I'm giving him back. I'm putting him back a little bit and the only reason I'm going to do that that I think killian's fit. I just wonder how bad much and how bad he wants to win this race and how much it matters to him. Um, like, he's gonna be doing a bunch of media obligations before. Are everybody gonna follow him around the camera? Um, does he care? Is he just there to like have a good time? Like I wonder why he even signed up for this race.
Speaker 2:It's a good question.
Speaker 1:I think it was a power move against jim because was pissed that Jim whooped his ass. I'm just going to say this Jim did whip his ass at Keontae. I don't know, I still am a fan of Killian, but it is what it is. I'm going to call it like it is, okay. So I have fifth place in Killian. I think Killian is one of the fittest in the field, no doubt. I just think that how bad does he want it? Where's the fitness at? Where are things at right now? Are you more focused on Western States? Do you care? Are you going to show up? We don't really know. So yeah, in fourth place I'm gonna go Lucas Earl, a six athlete, etc champion of 2024. Also last year in 2024, second in the up down. He's like the. He's like the German, dan Kurtz, amazing downhill runner.
Speaker 2:Sorry, sorry I don't know.
Speaker 1:Uh, I got I got jokes today, dude uh the second in the up down and then third in the europeans. Uh, third european for the uphill championship. So very legit, very solid. Uh, can race at altitude. Ran an old miss, or old miss like ran uh, that's why he's here.
Speaker 2:Then I was wondering. I was like we don't have a ton of people from from Europe coming over here. Um, so that must be why I must have family friends here, something yeah, it's gonna be cool to see him mix it up.
Speaker 1:I just think the euros are so solid. Um, in third place I'm gonna go. Henry Armand, the Italian Last year won the. What is it? The Fule Lelefali VK has historically gotten third place at this race. Has been here before. Both competed at the VK and in the 23K.
Speaker 2:That's correct, yep.
Speaker 1:So got in third place. I mean, he could very well spank everybody and go win the race. I would not be surprised. He's a VK specialist now Really, so very much so focuses on the VKs. So this is something. The reason he's here is for the WRMA VK World Cup, so he's here for points for that, so don't be surprised. And then obviously it's always a boost to go race the 23K for the Golden Trail points. But don't be surprised to see him on the podium. I think he's going to do extremely well.
Speaker 1:In second place, I'm going to go the GOAT, mr Joseph Gray. I'm going to throw him up there. I think that Joe just has a ton of experience. He's super fit. Obviously he's going to be peaking for a race like this. You know it's a rare sighting of the goat. Like we don't normally get him a broken arrow unless, unless there's a few things that have to. Stars have to align and we got him there this year, which is going to be very cool. Obviously, you know for where Joe's at in his career. It's always a you know, a blessing and amazing to see him go like out and compete at a race like this. So so yeah, I have him easily second place. I think he's going to get one over Dude. Killian's been beaten this year, so I think he gets one over on Killian.
Speaker 1:Jim broke the curse. You know, joe well, I don't know if you know this. Like Joe and Killian like go way back, dude. They've had some battles at series and all. You know. In fact I can't remember what year it was Joe must be killing at series and all. I think I can't remember if he tripped and hurt his leg or fell or something like that, and killian passed him late in the race. So they've had some historical battles. I don't know how much they like each other, but I will say one thing I think that joe is a more vertical specialist.
Speaker 1:Uh even the and you gotta remember killing lives at at sea level and joe gray doesn't live at sea level. Joe's been up training jo. Joe's been putting in the work, not the killings, not. I just think it's a very there's a lot of specificity. Like Killian likes to say, if you want to win a race you have to train specific for it. I think Joe's been training very specific for it. I think Joe's up there and I think the only man that's going to beat him on the day is Patrick. I think Patrick, reigning world champion, hasn't shown any cracks in his game, if not only gotten better. Um, as we've seen, you know, when it comes to the, you know the vertical stuff as well as you know the golden trail series stuff. He won it last year. He made jim look, so I think he beat him like two minutes last year. Um, yeah, that's stupid dude. He's so good. Uh, I've stood on the start line before with him. I was astonished. The man runs like a gazelle. It's amazing. So, yeah it, patrick kipaniego.
Speaker 2:I think first place takes the dub this is patrick's year, though for sure, like I did have him in second. But I mean, this is his year he's. He's gonna win golden trail. I I said that in past spots before it's. He's getting better yeah he's speaking.
Speaker 1:he's amazing and I I probably will eat my words with killian, but but hey, we'll see, we'll see.
Speaker 2:And then a few, just a few people. I just wanted to highlight as well that we didn't mention Remy LaRue, sixth last year. Philemon, he was seventh last year. Ryan Becker, eighth last year. I mean, we're getting all these guys returning. It's so fun.
Speaker 2:Grant Colligan, not a Golden, he's trail team as well. He's 15th last year. Joe to more 17th. Kieran, nay, another colorado guy, 22nd last year.
Speaker 2:Uh, casey campbell, he just took 10th at centipede. Um, really great up and comer. Uh, noah williams, he's won kendall mountain, he's, he's good at. He's good at this vertical stuff too. Josh Eberle fun to see him there. Chris Myers, fun to see another ultra guy kind of stepping in here, a little pre-states race.
Speaker 2:And then two young guys too that I wanted to highlight Ali Papalan, who used to train out of Boulder, then the Springs, then Boulder and now he's out in the Tahoe area. So he's out in this area. He's the future of the sport 100. I mean, the dude's 20 years old, he's, he's been here before, he's, he's been like top 20. I want to say a lot of times top 15. And then another one I want to highlight um, 21 year old, benjamin town said uh, he's, you know, it's, it's. He's another one future of the sport. Super fun to see them uh, throwing it, throwing it out there, with these big guys that are. Just hopefully they'll learn something when they go there and can take it in the future Because, like I said, they're the future. So fun to see.
Speaker 1:Fun to see them. I agree Two things. I don't know if I added Did you mention Phil Amon at all? Phil Amon, yeah, yep.
Speaker 2:Yep, now Phil Amon. So one thing about Phil Amon is like he's good at the uphill, but I mean he's very good on downhill, like he almost beat Killian last year at Sears and all. I don't think that this is his specialty, but we could very well see him up there. I mean, if he just he trains with Patrick so much, if he just hangs on to him as long as he possibly can, who knows? But maybe that last downhill bit some people just break and some can just send it down.
Speaker 2:Because let me tell you, when I did Pepe's at GoPro a couple of weekends ago, what it takes to flip your turnover from going uphill to downhill. It's a skill and it's something I think you need to practice. You are going in slow motion when you're when you're, when you're cresting that and that's going to be a time where people are going to make passes. I guarantee we see moves. So I hope who's ever listening, I hope somebody at broken arrow put a camera in that spot, cause we need to see it, cause they are going to be moves that are going to be made, a hundred percent.
Speaker 1:For sure, yeah, we be made 100 for sure. Yeah, we need. I mean, dude, I'm so happy that we're gonna have finally, finally, live stream shout out to mountain outpost. Oh, glad to make that happen, all right. So one thing I did not say was my team, team usa, the picks that I had, um, because I was kind of all over the place with a lot of the euros. Um, joe gray, david sinclair, cam smith and, uh, mr christian allen, I think those are our four.
Speaker 2:I'm gonna going to be signing.
Speaker 1:Awesome. And you know what dude and I got to say for Christian? I don't want to say just do or die, but this is your opportunity to get on Team USA, because I know you just kind of coming back from it at Sunapee, the stars just didn't align. This is the opportunity to do it. If you're going to do it 100%, yeah, All right. Sweet, all right. I'm going to do the break and we'll go to the Broken Arrow 23K.
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