Mining’s Political Risk Problem Is Getting Worse | Christopher Ecclestone

Christopher Ecclestone, principal and mining strategist at Hallgarten + Company, joins Kitco Mining’s Digging Deep with Paul Harris to break down a week of major mining developments and what they reveal about jurisdiction risk, politics, and project strategy.

Ecclestone discusses SSR Mining’s agreement to sell its 80% stake in the Copler mine in Türkiye for $1.5 billion following the February 13, 2024 heap leach disaster that killed nine workers. He said the company is “getting a good price to get the hell out of Dodge.” He also examines AngloGold Ashanti’s decision to sell the stalled La Colosa gold project in Colombia, arguing that “this gigantism in the mining sector is part of the problem” when large open-pit developments face strong local opposition.

Chris Ecclestone also discusses:
• Mongolia seeking a larger share of profits from Rio Tinto’s Oyu Tolgoi copper mine
 • Why governments often renegotiate once projects become too large to walk away from
 • Argentina’s RIGI investment regime and the push to accelerate mine development
 • AbraSilver’s Diablillos project and the return of precious metals mining to northern Argentina
 • Lundin Mining’s latest copper expansion in Chile

Don’t forget to subscribe to the Kitco Mining YouTube channel to stay up to date on the latest Digging Deep interviews and industry insights.

01:17 - Turkey Risk and Copler Tailings Fallout
04:25 - AngloGold Sells La Colosa Project
06:20 - Open Pit Mining vs Community Pushback
10:34 - From Emerging Markets Back to North America
13:27 - Panama Lessons and Self-Inflicted Mining Risks
15:22 - When Governments Move the Mining Goalposts
18:27 - Argentina’s RIGI and Political Risk
21:09 - Chile Mining Policy Under President Kast
25:46 - Argentina Silver Comeback vs Mexico
27:39 - Lundin Expands Chile Copper Exposure
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Disclaimer: The views expressed in this podcast are those of the author and may not reflect those of Kitco Metals Inc. The author has made every effort to ensure accuracy of information provided; however, neither Kitco Metals Inc. nor the author can guarantee such accuracy. This article is strictly for informational purposes only. It is not a solicitation to make any exchange in commodities, securities or other financial instruments. Kitco Metals Inc. and the author of this podcast do not accept culpability for losses and/ or damages arising from the use of this publication.

Transcript

SPEAKER_00 0:05

Hello and welcome back to Kitco Mining's Digging Deep with me, Paul Harris, in which we take a closer look at some of the most interesting news items in the mining and exploration space. Joining me today is Christopher Eccleston, principal and mining strategist at Hallgarten Plus Company. Chris, welcome back to Kitco. Hello there. Today is Wednesday, the 11th of March, the IJ Marts, which were a dark day for Julius Caesar. Who is it a bad day for today? Unfortunately, we have more than one candidate, so let's take a look. First up is SSR Mining, which agreed to sell its 80% ownership stake in the Kerplamine and related properties in Turkey for$1.5 billion, and it said it will conduct a strategic review of its 20% interest in the Hod Madden development project. Kruppla has been on care and maintenance since the February 2024 heap leach pad collapse that killed nine workers, and still sees some company officials under arrest in Turkey. The disaster has resulted in losses estimated at more than$2 billion for SSR. Cupla has reserves of more than 3 million ounces and was producing at more than 200,000 ounces per year. Chris, let's start here. Is this a large company extracting itself from a bad situation where it has burnt its bridges?

SPEAKER_01 1:35

Many people that are involved in Turkey do not want to blow the whistle on the pressures that are applied to them to sell out to local um parties, um, which at the time I called the FOS, uh, being the Friends of Erdogan. Um, and we were put under a lot of pressure, and ultimately um uh the project that we had, which was 1.8 million ounces of gold, was sold for$4 million. So um SSR um getting a good price to get the hell out of Dodge. Um Turkey is a a country where um if we go back in further, we will see that Newmont were forced out and uh forced into selling to one of the friends of Erdogan. Um so this comes as no surprise whatsoever. Um and um I don't know. I you know, when I saw Hop Martin having an enormous run a few years back, and Hop Martin was in uh very close proximity to the project that we had had, I thought, oh, this is this is fascinating. Maybe Turkey has made a turn for the better. And then lo and behold, you just cannot cure some things, and um the Turkish government is a bit of uh a problem more than the mining companies are.

SPEAKER_00 3:08

Okay, um, so uh your view is that this is a good business business sense for the company, it's uh managed to recoup you know$1.5 billion. Um, but on a on another sense, Chris, does this perhaps reinforce the message that miners walk away from problems that they you know inadvertently cause here? Obviously, a tailings pad collapse.

SPEAKER_01 3:28

Yeah. Well, you know, telling stems collapse, they happen all the time. Um that could have been carelessness by the company, or it could have been carelessness by a contractor, or it could have been something else. Um the companies generally, when they have these problems in Turkey, are not gonna say what really caused the problems. So um we're gonna remain in the dark, but um SSR are probably well rid of their exposure to Turkey.

SPEAKER_00 4:01

Okay, and it sounds like you would expect the sale of the 20%, the 20% stake in Hot Maddam will follow at some point as well. So make a two-breaker.

SPEAKER_01 4:13

Yeah, yeah, you want to get out of Dodge.

SPEAKER_00 4:16

Okay, SSR has been pivoting more towards North America for some time, uh, particularly as a result of the 2025 acquisition of the Triple Creek and Victor mines in Colorado from Newmont. Um, let's turn to Angler Gold Ashanti, which this week agreed to sell its 28 million ounce La Colossa deposit to Moneros for 10 million dollars and a 60 million dollar contingent payment. Uh, big contingency there is getting permits to get into production. La Colossa um is the Helen of Troy of Columbia's gold sector. The premature announcement of its maiden resource by former President Alvaro Aribe in 2007 kick-started a gold rush in the company, which saw it become the hottest exploration destination in the world until poor policy decisions and the bear market of sort of 10-15 years ago saw interest there wane. Angler Gold's efforts to develop an open-pit gold mine were frustrated by community resistance that culminated in a 2017 referendum that saw residents in the Cajamarca municipality vote against exploration and mining activities, which was subsequently upheld by the courts. Even the appointment of Colombian Alberto Calderón, a former junior minister as chief executive 2021, did not change the company's fortunes in Colombia. In late 2025, Angler Gold saw the concessions for its Kebradona Copper Gold Development Project in Antiochia expire, with the government unwilling to extend them. Angler Gold was a pioneer in exploring Colombia, but having spent more than a billion dollars in the country over the past 20 years, the only returns it has to show for its efforts is the 20 million it obtained for its 50 fifth, sorry, its 50% stake in the Gramolotti Gold project in Antiochia, which it sold to B2 Gold in 2023, plus potential contingent payments of$40 million and$5 million it obtained from Junior Royal Road Resources, which bought a great part of its exploration concessions. Chris, the same question as we started with with SR mining. Is this a large company extracting itself from a bad situation where it has burnt its bridges?

SPEAKER_01 6:24

Uh yeah, it could have been a case of burning its bridges. It's a different case here. You know, I'm not necessarily persuaded that the Colombian government is out to get Anglo gold, as may be the case in other countries. You know, there's some mining companies, and I keep running into them, who when it's clear that a large open pit or any open pit is not going to be acceptable in a certain area, they persist. And they persist and they persist. They will not change their modus operandi. The question is then, why are Moneros paying anything for it if it's a dead duck who pays that much money for a dead duck? And I would suggest that Moneros are probably thinking there are different ways that we can skin this cat, ways that we'll get it approved. And um we have once again this obsession of big miners with big pets. They cannot get over it. Um they cannot, you know, adjust themselves to the idea that possibly underground mining is the way to go. Um, and if the grades are so low that that's not justified, then why did they pay so much in the first place? They're obviously not taking the temperature of the room before they go into the room. And um once they get in there and they complain that it's too hot, um, is it the government's fault?

SPEAKER_00 7:53

Okay, well, a very intriguing point there. I think it'd be fair to Angligold Ashanti when they went into Colombia, the the opposition to open pit mining was not there. Colombia has large open pit mines in the nickel space and in the thermal coal space. Um the opposition to large-scale open pit gold mines hadn't yet uh arrived. Angler Gold is also seems more intent on its future being in North America, particularly on the Arthur project in Nevada. Um, 10 million dollars for 28 million ounces, grading what, 0.8, 0.9 grams a ton. Sounds an interesting bet for Mineros. Um, a key part there, as you suggested, will be skinny looking to skin the cat uh a different way. Uh, but I guess one of the questions there that at the moment is perhaps unanswered is is there underground potential there? I don't recall seeing a high grade core in past resource statements for for La Colossa. Mineros said it's going to spend its initial time consulting with local communities uh to work out what could be a feasible way forward, and it will look to rename the project in conjunction with the local communities. Chris, any any potential suggestions there? Maybe Anglos folly.

SPEAKER_01 9:06

Well, uh yeah, Anglos Folly, yeah. You don't need a high grade core. If it's a veiny deposit, quite frequently you see these cases where um there are deposits that are veins and they have lots of high grade that you could exploit as an underground mine following the veins. You don't have to have an enormous mass of high grade somewhere in there. You just have to find the high grade and pursue it through the mountain, and that's how you get the material out. Um, you know, too easy, it's too much of a uh what they thought was uh an open door to lean on by just saying, well, we'll take out the side of the mountain, it doesn't really matter, you know, but gigantic uh strip ratios, uh gigantic piles of overburden, we'll fill up this valley here, and we'll fill up that valley there, and you know, the locals will give them a you know a few palm trees to plant, um, and you know, they'll be happy. Um, you know, these locals aren't that dumb. Um, and they know that the devastation is wrought, and then they're left with it. These companies, once they see the writing on the wall, should start thinking, how do we rework this? Um, and why do they have to sell to Moneros to um to rework it? Uh whatever Moneros magic they're gonna do, why can't Anglo do it? Um, you know, they're they're just this gigantism in the mining sector is part of the problem.

SPEAKER_00 10:37

Okay, I think one interesting aspect of both these stories is that you've had you've got large mining companies looking to uh develop their businesses in emerging markets, then when that doesn't work for whatever reason, they then turn back to North America, jurisdictions where they face tougher regulation and a legal system with more teeth when things do not go well. Um interesting pivot.

SPEAKER_01 11:02

Yep. No, absolutely. I mean you can go to the developed West and not necessarily find that it's any better than the undeveloped South.

SPEAKER_00 11:12

Okay. Now, another jurisdiction where such things are playing out is Mongolia, where the government there is demanding earlier profit payments and a larger share of the revenue from the massive Oyotolgoy copper mine it co-owns with Rio Tinto. The government holds a 34% stake, and now it seems it wants 60% of the profits. Uh, Chris, does this really come as a surprise?

SPEAKER_01 11:37

Yeah, look, I'm I'm you know, these governments change and then they want to move the goalposts. Uh, and the bigger the project is, the harder they fall, as we can see from the uh from the previous example of SRN. Um, you know, you've got to uh once you once you're in there with such an enormous investment and so much of a part of your uh your business model, then the government can apply the squeeze to you and you're much more vulnerable. Um it's better to cut one's coat to suit the cloth and and you know try and try and minimize the risks there of these uh things. But you know, in that case, I don't know if there's any sort of uh international tribunal that they can go to because quite clearly there was an agreement at the start and they're changing the agreement. Um can they get away with that? I don't know. Maybe uh you know Rio Tinto don't want to go to the courts to resolve this and they just want to sort of roll over and avoid getting totally nationalized. But um I would think that one really needs to, you know, probably look towards a legal solution or the threat of a legal solution. Um because really uh once the Mongolian government has done this, then it effectively uh you know kills off anybody else going in because everybody else is going to know that no matter how attractive the initial deal is, that initial deal is um you know off the table as soon as you've made an investment that is too big to fail or too big to walk away from, and then the government can um you know squeeze the lemon over and over again until there's no juice left in the lemon for the multinational that has uh wandered into that space.

SPEAKER_00 13:31

Now, this seems to be a similar situation as has been playing out in Mali in the past couple of years. The government wants more, it wants more, it wants more. And I want to sort of project this onto other development projects. Um, one that obviously springs to mind is first quantum minerals. Hopefully, the company is looking to get a chance to negotiate a new operating contract for its Cogbury Panama development in Panama. Um, and presumably it's gonna face a government that's eager to do something similar in terms of maximizing potentially it's an ownership stake, and certainly maximizing the amount of the profits that it gets. Um, that must be a very difficult position to enter a negotiation into.

SPEAKER_01 14:14

Um, well, I have very little sympathy. That's what I've got to say. Um, they should have pursued their Taka Taca project in Argentina, which they paid 600 million for like 15 years ago and did nothing with. Instead, they thought that Panama was an easy alternative, and uh it has not proven to be the case. Um, once again, you know, there are a lot of self-inflicted injuries in the mining space, and the mining companies are the first ones to call out the government and say the government did it, they're evil. Um, but you know, they they this some of these companies do not tread carefully enough uh to guarantee that their project um does not run into problems. They're almost invited, and then when it turns into a problem, you know, that they're they're sort of stuck. Um, you know, this has not been clear sailing right from the beginning, and they should have uh threatened the government, frankly, a bit of stick and carrot here, and said right back at the start, this is a big investment for us. Um, if you're going to put stones in the road later on, we're not gonna do it. Tell us now, we're gonna go away.

SPEAKER_00 15:26

Okay. Um, I want to uh continue extrapolating this theme and building your comments about you know the government's looking to squeeze the lemon. Um, this has echoes in some ways with what happened in the oil sector going back several decades when you know the Middle East was developed. Initially, it was united the American companies, the French companies, the British companies going in, and they perhaps had 80 or 90 percent of the profits that subsequently changed to the 50-50 split with the host nations. The host nations subsequently took more and more, and now it's perhaps they get 90% up to take or nationalizing. Yeah, Marden was originally uh um uh you know, Saudi Aramco was originally uh a US company, and now it's um obviously a state company. So given that this has already played out, this is a story that's already played out in the natural resource space, why miners seem to be slow to learning that this is perhaps the eventuality for the very large projects?

SPEAKER_01 16:23

Yeah, I think they should put a sign in their offices if this is too good to last, then it's too good to last. Um they should realize that uh, you know, if they cut such a sweet deal that leaves very little on the table. And to go back to Mali, you know, I quite have the suspicion that in many African countries the foreign miners uh begin to transfer pricing. Um the local you you know, we see profits of certain amounts coming out of big gold companies from this mine or that mine and enormous numbers of ounces. And then the local government, you know, the and the treasury sort of you know, count the coins that have landed with them from royalties or their share of uh um free carry, and they think this doesn't add up to the amount of money that we should be getting from a mine that's producing 300,000 ounces a year. And then you find that there's lots of uh inter-company payments, uh transfer pricing. You know, the Chinese are not the only ones who acknowledge transfer pricing. And frankly, they didn't invent it, it was Western multinationals. So um, you know, uh gotcha, they've been caught out doing these things, and then they cry foul when the local governments say, hey, we're getting not enough benefits from this. Because if it is such a great cash cow for the local government, they would not be threatening it. And they are threatening uh these concessions because the concessions have not been good enough. They've not they've not shared the gains, they've brought in lots of FIFO workers at very high salaries, not trained enough locals, not uh built up the infrastructure beyond the specific mine or oil field site. Um, they've left very little um, you know, goods um for the what is in many cases uh rapidly expanding local populations that um you know you know poverty in the midst of some great mine development is not a good look.

SPEAKER_00 18:30

Okay. Um I want to take this uh part of the conversation over towards Argentina, a country you know very well, Chris. Um one of the big news stories in the mining space has been uh President Javier Melee's Riggi, his large investment uh uh scheme seeking to encourage large investments by offering tax stability, legal stability, tax advantages, etc., etc. All that sounds very good. A number of companies have signed up for that, and the government is, you know, seems to be successful in sort of kick-starting natural resource investment in Argentina again. However, Millet's not going to be in power forever. Are we gonna see a rinse and repeat of what's happened in Argentina? A subsequent government will say, you know, this isn't good enough. We want more.

SPEAKER_01 19:14

Uh yeah, some of the Ricky deals are pretty generous. And um, up until last year's midterm elections, you know, there were even doubts that that Millet would do well in those. He ended up doing well in them, but that doesn't necessarily mean that he'll get elected, re-elected um at the end of his four years. Um you have to ask the question, you know, what about the future? And in fact, you know, the most of these projects, all of these projects, would have gone ahead without Ricky. So maybe they were overducing the projects uh by giving them special tax benefits to make them happen faster. And I suspect that that's part of it, because the Ricky is very much timed to sort of uh limits of time within which people have to do things. So it's not like you get a special tax deal, and then if you feel like it in 10 years, you can develop the mind. No, Rigi is very much you, you know, you've got to put the pedal to the metal now because he wants to see the financial benefits now, and he wants to see them, uh, he wants to see the jobs created now, he wants to see the uh the foreign direct investment now. He doesn't want to see it in five years when the mining company says, well, we're just waiting for a you know eight dollars per pound copper or some you know, some other number um before they get uh before they get motivated. Be interesting to see to come back to first quantum, first quantum with Taka Taka, if they're going to Riggy, uh they get a Rigge, they're they're gonna have to start developing the thing, whereas they've just been sitting on it like an ostrich, or Nyandu, the Argentine equivalent of an ostrich, sitting on this egg for enormous amounts of time and never hatching it.

SPEAKER_00 21:07

Brilliant. Um, okay, well let's uh on that note, Chris, let's uh hopefully have some positivity now for the remainder of the show. Let's start with Jose Antonio Cast. He's going to be inaugurated today as Chile's new president. Um, media reports, expectations are that he's going to be positive for mining. What's your your view of uh what's to come under the Caste administration?

SPEAKER_01 21:28

Oh, could be great. Could be great, but Chile is constantly disappointed, both on the right and the left, because there is a sort of like a consensus of de regist policies. The state loves to meddle in Chile, whether they're on the right or the left, and so they become Tweedled and Tweedled um. So Castro's really got it right from the start, as Millet did within days of getting uh his ascension to power, start showing some difference. Not only from the left-wing government that sucks that he preceded him, but to previous right-wing governments that basically did nothing except feather the nest of the 1% in Chile. And Chile's 1% really is a 1%. There's phenomenal income disparity in Chile, and it's one of the big problems there. And there will be left-wing governments again unless that is dealt with. And so the policies need to change. We saw, we've seen this, you know, sacred cow of Cadelco can do whatever it damn well likes, moving into the lithium space by effectively government blocking foreign lithium companies. And what happened? All that business went to Argentina. Because Chile could not get out of its own way. And he's really got to get out the um, he should buy, and yeah, I think wasn't when Leigh lent or gave his chainsaw to Elon Musk. He should get it back and give it to Kast. Because Kast needs it a lot more than Elon Musk does.

SPEAKER_00 23:06

Okay, and an illustration of your point there about uh lithium and uh the Chilean government meddling in it is the fact uh can be seen today as Salta received uh an investment, sorry, Rio Tinto in Salta for its Rincon project, announced this morning a financing package with the International Finance Corporation or IFC, given the seal of approval with a 400 million US dollar loan towards that 2.5 billion starter uh development project. And IFC also brought in another a number of other investors as part of a$1.2 billion financing package. Also in Salta, Abra Silva aims to advance his Diable Silver project uh to a construction decision by the end of the year for potential 13 million ounces of silver equivalent production after being incepted into the Riggy tax regime we've just been talking about. Uh Chris, um again, let's continue with uh a conversation with Riggi. How is important is is this acceptance into Riggy for AbraSilva? Obviously, AbraSilva, a much smaller company than Rio Tinto, much smaller company than First Quantum.

SPEAKER_01 24:11

Yeah, well, yeah, John Me the Artist, the CEO, was uh named CEO, mining CEO of the year um just this week. So that was uh yeah, it's like double plaudits for the company there. Um, you know, this is very important because where uh uh uh Diabligios is located, uh visited the project, it's in the altiplano of uh of the Andes, uh in the part of Salta that's in the Altiplano. And um up there, all of the projects, all of the projects are lithium projects. So this is going to be the onset of a precious metals project in a zone that up until now has been um uh virtually all lithium. And we should know, going back to first quantum, that Taka Taca is the other big potential project in the Aldiplano. So we would be seeing a change in the um, you know, the focus of the Aldiplana, away from being just a lithium district into being um a diversified mining district with a whole lot of different um elements being pursued by um big companies. I would say the Arbor Silver will probably be taken over within the next few years. Um it's too good and too big um to probably advance by itself and too juicy a target.

SPEAKER_00 25:36

Okay, well, I'll be finding out more tomorrow. I'm boarding a flight to Falta, I'm visiting Diablios, I'm visiting Takataka, and I'm visiting El Quivar. So next time we talk, Chris, uh be able to swap notes on that. Um, Chris, Diablios is a predominantly silver project. How important is the ability for the company Abra Silver to take the project forward in the context within the context of what is happening in Mexico, where there are another of similarly sized, you know, large silver development projects. Will Argentina regain the silver edge that produced its name in the first place? Um, as an investor, what do you think is worse? Threats to physical security a la Mexico, or threats to fiscal stability, a la Argentina?

SPEAKER_01 26:25

Uh definitely the fiscal stability. There are no security issues whatsoever in Argentina. So that's not a problem. Uh and as for Argentina being named after silver, it's actually a bit more of a marketing job than anything else, because Argentina, even in the Spanish colonial days, was not a major silver producer. But you're you are right because uh there was the very large Las Perquitas mine, which was owned by SRN back in the days when it was silver standard, um, that closed a few years ago, and Argentina was a major silver producer, and since then it's only been um a secondary uh producer as a byproduct of the mines down in Patagonia. This is going to bring um, you know, a very big um uh precious metals mine into operation in the north of Argentina, which since Las Perquitas closed, uh has not been a zone with precious metals operations. Um, it's been almost exclusively in Patagonia and a bit in San Juan, where um we've seen gold mines operating uh and silver mines. So um this is going to be a change and a pivot back towards um you know precious metals mining in the north of Argentina.

SPEAKER_00 27:42

Excellent. Well, let's have uh another bit of positivity. Londine mining agreed this week to buy an additional 5% interest in the Caserones Copper Molybnum mine in Chile and a 30.9% interest in the Los Jolados Copper project, uh, both of those in the Atacama region. It's paying$215 million for that. This will increase London mining's 2026 attributal copper production by about 7,000 tonnes. The deal also consolidates Los Holados ownership into London hands, as it is 69% owned by sister company Njex Resources. Los Alados is 17 kilometres from Caserones. Potential possible synergies there for the Los Alados development scenario is include the potential to truck or convoy or convey or from Los Alados to Caserones. Chris, um broader picture here. Could Caserones and Los Alados feature in the future development of the Vicunya joint venture between London mining and BHP just across the border in uh San Juan in Argentina, where they're looking to exploit the Jose Maria and Filodosol copper deposits?

SPEAKER_01 28:51

Uh I really don't think so. Uh, you know, cross-border issues with the death of Pascualama, which was the barrack project that actually straddled the border. Um I think everyone would be very wise to keep their um their cattle separated, as is a very um common expression amongst the gauchos in Argentina. Don't mix your cattle. And so um London may be owning assets on both sides of the border, but better to keep them you know well fenced away from each other.

SPEAKER_00 29:26

Okay, so the message here is sort of curb your enthusiasm. Um, interesting because the proposed third stage of the Cunha project will require the development of infrastructure in Chile, such as um a concentrate pipeline, desalinated water pipeline, potentially the use of ports in Chile. Um, another aspect of this, um there was also a royalty that uh Londine mining um obtained there. Um, Chris, what are the odds you think that London mining will subsequently sell that royalty on to London? Sorry, Lunar Royalties, the London's royalty company.

SPEAKER_01 30:04

Um highly possible. Highly possible. We've got this proliferation of single purpose, single project royalty companies and or uh single owner royalty companies or controlling force royalty companies. I think it's excessive, but it's it's going on, it's the trend of the day. Um ultimately they're all going to get knocked together again into something big that might over might all be owned by Tether. The world will be owned by Tether. But um, yeah, they could do that. They could do that. But um, you know, royalties sometimes are worth buying back. So say if uh, you know, there's a 3% royalty on your project, 3%, 4%, it's too high, you buy it back, and then you sell it as a 2% royalty to somebody else, whether it's yourself, as in this case, or to another royalty company, but you can get the royalty um uh you know component down by rebuying it for probably a bargain price and then uh shrinking the royalty to make it uh you make the sums look better for both sides.

SPEAKER_00 31:09

Okay. Uh well, Chris, that's all we have time for today. Chris Eccleston, many thanks for joining me. Thank you. And of course, to our viewers, if you like what you see, don't forget to hit that subscribe button. I'm Paul Harris, and this is Kitco Mining.