Digging Deep
Join a discussion with the brightest minds in the resource investing sector and learn how to navigate the complex world of mining investment. Kitco Mining's Digging Deep, hosted by Paul Harris, is your weekly appointment to understand the key trends in the resource investment space. Paul sits with experts to dissect investment trends and understand the dynamic landscape shaping the future of natural resource extraction. Digging Deep is your guide to understanding resource investment and how to profit from it.
Digging Deep
Mining M&A Hits Reality Check as Gold Stocks Pull Back | Christopher Ecclestone
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Christopher Ecclestone, Principal and Mining Strategist at Hallgarten + Company, joins Kitco Mining’s Digging Deep with Paul Harris to break down mining M&A, gold equity weakness, producer cash piles, copper dividends, lithium delays, and Ecuador’s gold sector.
Ecclestone takes a skeptical view of G Mining’s deal to acquire G2 Goldfields and the creation of G3 Goldfields, questioning whether repeated spinouts and recombinations create lasting value. He is more direct on Zijin Gold’s failed C$5.5 billion bid for Allied Gold, saying weaker gold prices and falling miner valuations changed the deal math.
Ecclestone says the Feb. 28 escalation in the Iran conflict disrupted a developing institutional rotation into mining, sending capital back toward AI and data centers instead. He also weighs cash versus bullion on producer balance sheets, dividends versus buybacks, Codelco and Rio Tinto’s delayed Maricunga lithium project, and Lundin Gold’s exploration success in Ecuador. With cheaper assets available, he says acquirers may not need to rush. “We've not seen the worst yet,” he said.
Recorded July 30, 2026.
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00:00 - Welcome and 100th Episode
00:32 - Guyana Deal Breakdown
06:47 - Zijin Walks From Allied
10:54 - Investor Lessons From Bust Deal
14:07 - Geopolitics Hits Metals
17:14 - Q2 Results and Cash Piles
19:58 - Gold on Balance Sheets
21:29 - Copper Dividends and Storms
24:34 - Chile Lithium Delay Debate
29:22 - Lundin Gold Ecuador Upside
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Disclaimer: The views expressed in this podcast are those of the author and may not reflect those of Kitco Metals Inc. The author has made every effort to ensure accuracy of information provided; however, neither Kitco Metals Inc. nor the author can guarantee such accuracy. This article is strictly for informational purposes only. It is not a solicitation to make any exchange in commodities, securities or other financial instruments. Kitco Metals Inc. and the author of this podcast do not accept culpability for losses and/ or damages arising from the use of this publication.
Kitco Mining, Digging Deep with Paul Harris.
SPEAKER_01Hello and welcome back to Kitco Mining's Digging Deep with me, Paul Harris, in which we take a closer look at some of the most interesting news items in the mining and the exploration space. Today is Thursday, the 30th of July, and the producer tells me that this is the hundredth episode of Digging Deep. So happy birthday to us. Joining me today to celebrate is Christopher Ecclesturm, principal and mining strategist at Hullgarten Plus Company. Chris, welcome back to Kitco.
SPEAKER_02Thank you.
SPEAKER_01Chris, uh, we are in celebratory mood, so let's start with MA. G mining ventures closed the acquisition of G2 goldfields to combine their respective Ocode gold deposits in Guyana. And G3 Goldfields was created from properties spun out from G2 Goldfields, and it will be funded with $45 million Canadian in cash, and it will get up to $200 million US of contingent payments tied to milestones at the properties that were acquired by G mining. Chris, what does the closing of this deal mean for G mining and its aims to become a mid-tier producer to be reckoned with?
SPEAKER_02Well, I think we shouldn't go back into the bit of the history here. Um they're they're a bit like m amoebas, some of these companies. They divide and recombine. I know we've seen a few companies like um originally uh was it Bima Gold, uh became B1 and B2 and all sorts of vitamins, and then we had um fission uranium spawned an F2 and an F3. Um, and in this case we're going for G1 and 2 and 3. Um, and then G1 and G2, from what I can gather, it's a very confusing transaction, uh recombining. Um the question is, why? Um uh I don't know if uh bankers uh are getting fees on this, on first doing the division and then doing the um recombination. Um but I suspect it's the company itself. Um they're trying, is it you know, I'm all for demergers. Uh, I I know you're not such a fan. I love D-Mergers, um, but demerging and then putting them back together again is sort of a bit of a zero-sum game, uh, involves a lot of costs, uh, and doesn't really bring um benefits uh equivalent, I don't believe. Um, and indeed, you know, some of these demergers um do create tax problems for some shareholders. Um I know that some uh US shareholders, for instance, in some of these spin-outs, um uh don't get the stock, they get cash instead or something uh like that. But uh so um I don't know. I think there should be a bit more longer-term thought given to these um these transactions if you're gonna do this type of thing of going uh backtracking really on on your original um rationale for um for breaking up. Um because if it's to set them free, and then you don't really set them free, but come back and uh and corral them back into the into the nest at a future date, um, what is the point?
SPEAKER_01I think that's a very interesting argument you're making, Chris, because um management often gives the rationale that they're spinning an asset out because its value isn't recognized in their their overall valuation or market capitalization. But then, as you suggest, at some point in the future there may be a reabsorbed when it seems uh okay, we need a pipeline now. Another couple of great examples there are what Lumina Gold did with its assets in Ecuador. I think they spread out, came back together two or three times. And of course, market darling, NGEX resources. If we go back what 10 years or so, NGEX pretty much had the whole of the Vicunia district. It span out Jose Maria, it spun out Philo. I think some bits came back, um, but obviously they're doing very well on their own. Um, I'm not, as you mentioned, I'm not usually a fan of spin-outs, as they uh more than often create another underfunded junior orphan in a sea of 2,000 other underfunded junior orphans, but this one is not underfunded, and it is run by team with proven success in the jurisdiction where they have had that proven success. So it seems that um this is an MA where everybody seems to have come out happy, Chris.
SPEAKER_02Yeah. Until they're not. Um you know we're we're in uh the tail end of a bull market here, so you can uh you can still squeeze some juice out of the lemon. Um but uh maybe they're they're doing this now while the going is good, um, because uh at some future dates maybe recombining these things, uh potentially at the loss, uh loss for some people. It's not like a zero-sum game where you've got um all the shareholders of G1 become shareholders of G2, and then several years later they recombine, so it's all six of one, half a dozen of the other. Um, because in the meantime, both groups have seen shareholder-based changes. People sell and buy and do whatever. Um, I wonder whether some of these transactions are actually um management driven. Management trying to um uh how can one put this tactfully? Um keep a job, have a job. Uh well, make more jobs, in fact. Um, you know, because they can replicate themselves like some sort of mutant. Um, and back to the amoeba analogy, um, the management uh actually mutate um and they get themselves a whole lot of new stock in a or options in a new vehicle. Um, and then ultimately they control the value of uh how they exit those new options if they end up buying back the company that they spun out in the first place and make an interesting deal to the option holders, which is largely them.
SPEAKER_01Chris, it sounds like your Amoeba analogy should perhaps be a virus analogy.
SPEAKER_02Oh yeah. Well that's the next step.
SPEAKER_01Okay. Well, an MA deal that's leaving no one happy is the 5.5 billion deal for Xijin Gold to buy Allied Gold, which has been terminated this week after the parties concluded that there is no reasonable likelihood that it would be fulfilled by July the 29th. The deadline there. The deal was originally due to close in late April. Allied's shares were down 15% on the news. Xijin in January agreed to pay 44 Canadian dollars per share for Allied, implying a 27% premium at the time, but Allied's price has since fallen below $30 per share as the gold price has come off, which would today have implied a premium of near 50%. The companies had got most of the regulatory approvals, but perhaps fell foul of the Chinese government intensifying its oversight of acquisitions across all sectors. Chris, um, was the falling gold price and therefore Allied's falling share price the nail in the coffin to this deal?
SPEAKER_02Yep. Yep. I think far more than the Chinese government because uh Xijin has been one of the Chinese government's um darlings, and I don't know that they would have gone ahead with this transaction without consulting uh the higher-ups. Um, I just I doubt that. So um this is a case of a bull market deal, a tail end of the bull market deal, um, that is having the carpet pulled out from underneath it by um the uh lackadaisical gold price, and the even worse situation of um valuations of many gold miners. I mean, we've seen gold has gone down um 20% from 5,000 to 4,000. Um, but many of the gold miners uh and gold I mean even worse, some of the others, um, the smaller ones, um, have gone down 40%. So um if you can get out of the transaction um without having to pay a break fee, yes please. And then you can circle back at some future date uh and do some other sort of deal, break up Allied, maybe um something like that. But uh uh I do not see this as um uh action by um Beijing beyond Beijing saying, well, maybe guys, you bid too much, so maybe you can get out of it and then um go do some better deal uh well on what some other beaten-down minor, or um come back and uh do a mercy, a mercy bid at some future date when allied is way, way lower than it is uh at the at the current time. I don't know, there's usually some sort of clause that doesn't allow you to uh to come back after you've walked away. Um but um such clauses can be uh can go by the wayside if the shareholders are desperate enough um to get a deal and they can't find anyone who's gonna buy them.
SPEAKER_01Well, that's uh an interesting perspective, Chris, because as you mentioned, there was no break free. In the original deal, there was a $220 million break free, but um with the Chinese government not approving it, it's neither the fault of Xijin nor of Allied. Um, however, Xijin has agreed to make a $295 million US dollar strategic investment in Allied at a premium for a 9.2% stake. Chris, um in light of what you've just said, do you think do you view this as a perhaps a toehold for Xijin that may result in a future offer for Allied or just a face saver given that Allied cannot claim the break flea?
SPEAKER_02Time will tell. Time will tell how that will play out. Um do they need a toehold? I don't know. They made a beer for it and then they've walked away from it. Um maybe this is uh some sort of cunning device that um gets them a seat at the table, seat at the board table. Uh they're getting a board seat with this, I have not seen. Um if I was them, I'd definitely want one.
SPEAKER_01Okay, that I I I don't know. Um, but Chris, what lessons can investors learn from this? This deal was struck in January, let's say pretty much the top of the recent gold price cycle. Um, is the lesson here that it's perhaps better to take the share price bump after a deal is announced and leave a few points on the table than perhaps to try and let the the deal conclude and get the full valuation that was bid?
SPEAKER_02Yeah, absolutely. I I don't know why anyone would have hung on after that point, except uh maybe thinking that there might be a higher counter bid come in somewhere. Um, but hope springs eternal in the breast of uh uh gold bugs, and uh they always think that there's uh uh another party going to come in and pay an even higher price for something that is overpriced already. Um, and in this case, um, I think the big lesson is uh well, the big lesson is sell as soon as you can, you know, take your money off the table, particularly as we sailed into um the events of uh February the 28th. And the other lesson is that um Donald Trump has been really bad for mining equity markets. Um may have been okay for the few sort of wonder stocks that um that Jared and friends are involved in in the US markets, but for the general mining space that was having a rock and rolling time from mid-last year until February the 28th, um, the actions of the Trump administration have been really bad for miners. Really bad for most metals. I can only think of two metals that are actually holding their ground. Um, that's tungsten and tin in the face of this. But the the treatment of gold and silver has been brutal. Um, I mean the treatment of the the underlying um stocks has been even worse. Um disastrous. Um, and you know, it's a pity because you know, we wait so long to get a big secular um bull market in uh in mining. And what's more, I think that the first months of this year started to show that there was um a genuine rotation from big institutions into mining, and that has been knocked on the head by the events of February the 28th. And subsequent to that, we've ended up with um you know the rotation into mining ending, and the rotation being instead into data centers and AI, and uh, you know, those guys can go crying all the way to the bank because um, you know, many of those transactions are now falling apart. Maybe um mining will get a second win, but um how many you know, chances do you get to finally get institutions to regard mining as part of the real economy? And we were on the cusp of that. Um, and we were seeing evaluations for the metals and for the stocks associated with those metals, and February the 28th has just been like dire.
SPEAKER_01There's an awful lot to unpack there, Chris. February 28th, that's when uh the US started its attacks on Iran, and uh following that the straight of Kormuz was effectively closed. Um, you you mentioned uh tungsten and tin have held up. You know, copper's held up. I was looking at the the copper futures at $6.45 a pound, they've held up pretty well. Um, but I take on board your point about precious metals cratering. Um, AI stocks have been starting to sell off because of the uh concern about the amount of money companies are borrowing to build out those data centers. So um that's in line with your your thesis of the the investors starting to rotate into other things. And yeah, I take on board your point about the the the conflict in the Persian Gulf, perhaps derailing mining's recovery. And if anything, that looks like it's only going to escalate. More more parties, more countries in the region seem to be getting involved in in that conflict. Um what's your view for how that is perhaps going to play out over the coming months?
SPEAKER_02Um well look, gold has just sort of lost its fig leaf as um, you know, uh uh a place of safe haven uh because things could not really be um sort of worse, except if we had World War III start, and even you know, some pundits are using these as the first um you know swallows of of World War III. Um uh but uh no one's hiding in gold. Um and if anything, um the conflict has precipitated the large number of holders in the Middle East to offload their gold. So they were buying it as a safe haven, but now they're having to sell it because they're finding that there's their own countries are not safe havens, um, and that they've got to try and plug their budgets that are uh are not seeing oil revenues coming in anymore. And they're also seeing uh, you know, some of these economies that were totally um have been totally devastated, um, most particularly uh Dubai's um, you know, it was the new Hong Kong and now it's looking like the new um Mogadishu. Um you know, it's and so the so the the governments of the Emirates are having to toss everything overboard that is not tied down, and the gold holdings are you know the first ones to go, and they're they're selling these things off to buy US munitions, and the US can't even provide them with the munitions. So um I don't know, it's it's it's like it's not a scenario that um anyone was looking for.
SPEAKER_01It is quite fascinating, even though it is also quite scary. Um, gold has sold down from 5,000 to 4,000, as you mentioned, Chris, but still that's let's roughly double what it was a year ago. So gold is to a certain extent held up quite well, and it is maintaining itself above that 4,000 US dollars per ounce. Um, I want to use that as a stepping stone into the second quarter results because um a number of companies have reported results by and large continue to impress. Kim Ross Gold reported last night with record net earnings of 844 million US dollars. It now has 2.7 billion dollars of cash on its balance sheet. First Majestic Silver reported this morning, and it has joined the $1 billion Cash Balance Club. Many companies have yet to report, but so far more than $10 billion has been returned to shareholders this year in the form of dividends and share briaks. Uh, Chris, as the financials are coming in, who is impressing you?
SPEAKER_02Um you know, the thing I worry about most with these companies is that the next thing they're gonna do is they're gonna say, well, you know, we're looking backwards here. Those results were for when gold was 5,000 or was 4,500 on the way up, and uh now we're at 4,000. We need to tighten our belts and sit um on this these cash piles that we've got um and and preserve them in case things get tougher, and that is good management strategy. But as we've seen with some of these um big miners in the past, money burns a hole in their pocket uh and they make bids using this cash that uh they shouldn't do. Um Kim Ross, of course, was the poster boy for bad deals over 10 years ago. Um, they seem to have learned their lesson there so far. Um, but uh there are shareholders out there who um, you know, not necessarily retail shareholders, but these institutional people who who have the ear of the board and they say, oh, you've got to do a deal, you've got to do a deal. Um, no, I would say no, you don't have to do a deal. Um, it's not a good time necessarily for doing a deal unless what you're buying is, you know, totally bombed out. Totally bombed out is good. Um, but anything else, um, you know, why pay a premium?
SPEAKER_01Okay, um I listened to the Kim Ross Gold Conference School and the analysts always ask about MA in any gold producer conference school, it's MA, MA, MA. Um, to your point about Kim Ross, it does seem that Paul Rollinson has learned his lesson because he was very adamant that Kim Ross has got enough on its plate. And he basically said paraphrasing you right out. We're not interested. Um, you know, with some of the, as you say, some of the share prices have come off 40%, so it does seem that there potentially is some bond out stocks out there. But um, taking a different viewpoint on this, Chris, I recently wrote about Gold Coast holding some gold billion on their balance sheet rather than billions of dollars in cash. Where do you stand on that issue?
SPEAKER_02Well, they've if they'd held dollars, they wouldn't have lost anything. Uh, and they've held gold and they've lost 20% of the value of that gold. Say no more. Well, it depends where they bought it. Yeah. If they'd have bought it a year ago, they'd be like, Yeah, but it seems to be a bit of a recent phenomenon, rather a long-term one. You know, buying gold is um and putting it in the portfolio is actually like the old practice of hedging. And we remember what hedging pre-2000 was the demise of many, um, many a company. It was not necessarily a bad strategy, uh, and big miners had very good reasons to do that because they'd seen the swings and roundabouts of the um the mining market, the metals markets, and um saw hedging as a way to protect themselves. But um, you know, that was financial instruments, you know, selling things forward and futures and whatever. Um, but holding gold is also a form of hedging um that um can turn around and bite you on the behind. And I see it now as being something that is leaving teeth marks in the posteriors of quite a few companies that have indulged in that practice.
SPEAKER_01Fair enough. Let's turn to copper as the red metal continues to give. Futures, as I mentioned, are about $6.45 per pound today. Hudbei posted strong second quarter earnings of $138 million with self proclaimed industry leading margins due to a C1 cash cost, net of byproduct credit credits of negative 40 cents per pound. High gold prices combining with high copper prices there. Meanwhile, dividend darling Americo Resources reported net income of more than 18. Million US dollars for the quarter and declared a four cent quarter dividend plus a special 18 cents dividend. Chris, um interesting this. Why aren't we seeing more companies declaring bonus or special dividends given that uh metals prices are riding relatively high?
SPEAKER_02Well, Amerigo has always um uh essued the um the Bay Street myth that investors don't like dividends, um, which is a total um falsehood to put it bluntly. Um and uh so you know they're doing the right thing. Uh, and some of these other companies uh, you know, should not be indulging in uh on-market buybacks of stock, but they should be paying out dividends to the shareholders, and then the shareholders can go and either buy more of the stock that they love, which is the stock that just paid them the dividend, or they could go and buy stock of something else that they feel is even more bombed out. Um, and uh it's ultimately it's the shareholders' choice, not the management's choice to sit on an enormous pile of cash like an ostrich sitting on its egg. Um, because that egg is not necessarily going to hatch into anything if it's just a big pile of US dollars or even worse, a big pile of gold.
SPEAKER_01Okay, some potentially more drip programs needed. So that's uh dividend reinvestment programs. The picture is not so rosy for miners a bit further north in central Trile in the Afsacama district, where massive rain and snowstorms have impacted operations at mines operated by Codelco, Anglo-American, Antivagasta Minerals, and London mining. Barrack gold is also barrack mining as well. Uh, Chris, while these closures are temporary, do you anticipate that they will have an impact on the copper market?
SPEAKER_02No. No. Temporary, totally temporary. I mean, it may be that the the Atacama Desert is the driest place on the earth, um, but it's it seems to be getting um surprisingly large amounts of rain and things in recent years um that uh make putting the lie to that um statistic. Um so the the mining companies should maybe spend some money on on bracing themselves um for uh climate change, um impacting them rather than just their bottom line.
SPEAKER_01Absolutely. Staying with Codelco, which is Chile's state-run copper company, it recently said the development of its Maricunga lithium joint venture project with Rio Tinto has been delayed by four years to 2034 due to what it calls slow permitting. Uh, Chris, a couple of things here. If Codelco, the state copper company, can't make Chile's permitting system run smoothly, who can?
SPEAKER_02I think it's a total fabrication. It's because they don't want to bring uh more production on at this stage. If the Chileans know anything about lithium, it's how to um amassage the price. You know, the cartel um that existed until maybe 10-15 years ago um, you know, had chili as one of its key props. And uh they do know that if you overproduce, um you come to grief. And Maricunga, I have been to visit, I know Maricunga very well, and it could be uh there's no reason why it couldn't be built there. There are no residents living around, there are no flamingos. Um uh the permitting is a matter of choice, and I would say that you know, Rio Tinto is saying, well, look, we've got all these assets over in Argentina, uh, we've got assets elsewhere, you know, that they picked up from the Liban deal. Um no, we don't need to do anything more with this at this stage. And Cadelco itself should not be involved in Maricunga. Um, if the Chilean government had wanted to uh you know start meddling in the lithium space, it should have just come out and set up a lithium entity in the same way that uh Bolivia has and that Mexico has. Um instead of disguising it under the umbrella of um the world's large, what is it, the world's largest copper company, or it's a large world's largest state-owned copper company that really knows zip about lithium. Um so it should have been done in another way. Um, but I suspect it's it's a bit of market timing that's going on here, nothing, nothing to do with permitting.
SPEAKER_01Okay, I think the uh intention of the Gavril Boric government was to create an independent uh state-owned lithium company, but uh they never got around to it, which is perhaps why Codelco assumed that particular mantle. Um I was gonna ask you, Chris, does this perhaps emphasize the view that Codelco should not be in the lithium business? You've expressed that very clearly, but uh your initial comment about um being able to massage the the lithium price, the lithium market, if Codelco's an active actor in one of the key development projects, presumably that would enable the government, you know, give the government greater ability to do that by not bringing it on stream as as quickly as perhaps it could be.
SPEAKER_02Yeah, yeah, but you know, chili is not the axe anymore in um in lithium. Sorry to tell them. The the um the dominance has moved over to the much more prolific um you know Argentine uh projects, of which there uh quite a bunch of actually in production and coming into production that make Marikunga look like a bit of a sideshow. Um, I think the Chileans are not wrong though, uh, because um I have a dim view of the future for Spodgy Mean, and um the the Chileans, um, if they sit on Marikunga long enough, we'll be able to turn it on at the phase when uh the price of lithium plunges and um the spot the hard rock crowd are ultimately driven out of business. We've seen it happen in uh with the underground mines in uh Quebec. Um, because also um the old Namaskar uh property, Wabuchi, uh in Quebec is in sort of like permanent um deep freeze. Um and there Rio Tinta is a partner as well. Uh so I think that they're looking for a scenario in which um the price of lithium goes down, and then uh then you know they'll be in a much stronger position. And a lot of these projects in Australia and these underground um uh lithium proposals uh will sort of disappear. And then, you know, probably that's also uh grim news for um for the mica and clay crowd in uh Nevada. Uh so um yeah, Brian Trumps everything. Pardon the party.
SPEAKER_01Absolutely. Well, let's end with some real sort of positivity. London Gold's exploration team at Fruto del Norte in Ecuador continues to hit it out of the park with results from FDN south of 11.75 meters, grading 109 grams per ton gold. Reports from Australia say the company is looking to pick up, expand there to pick up the nearby Rio Zaza and Valley de Inca mining concessions from Somerset Minerals. Um, Chris, um London's gold performance as a as a mine has been amazing. The performance of its exploration team producing results like this in uh near mine and outside mine and regional drilling is absolutely incredible. This really is something else, isn't it?
SPEAKER_02Yeah, it really goes to show that Ecuador is uh you know the the new frontier of um of gold. Uh it's it's and but the irony is that Fruta del Norte was in the freezer also for like eight years because of the ornary actions of the um the Ecuadorian government. And um, finally, uh now this is getting going, and a few other projects that are getting going there, they'll start to see jobs because, of course, um uh Ecuador suffered from the uh what's called the Dutch disease. Um that the oil industry was very sexy and the mining industry was not, and um you know it wasn't producing jobs, but now it's starting to produce jobs. Mining should be something that won't end up um you know being a whipping boy in Ecuador in the way that it was during that dark period where um Futa del Norte was just sort of like on the bottom shelf, uh and unwanted and unloved. Um, but now um doing well, doing well. A lot more to come in in Ecuador, I think, in copper as well. So um, you know, it's gonna it's gonna be really interesting.
SPEAKER_01Definitely. Um London Gold gives us a chance to weave together a few of the themes we've been talking about this week, Chris. Um, its performance has been amazing, and the company's been very active and progressive in returning a lot of those uh those earnings to its shareholders. However, many investors ask as and when uh London Gold will seek to leverage its cash pile and its highly valued stock into acquiring other assets. Uh the pullback in valuations would seem to be a great time to do so. Um, if you were in the London camp, if you were running the company, what would you do?
SPEAKER_02Wait. We've not seen the worst yet. Yeah, more bargains. More bargains out there. You know, some of these stocks were uh having lost 40% of their value, still too expensive. Um yeah, you know, there's more stuff out there that you can get cheaper. Just need to get let them get sort of like frogs more boiled in the boiling water. Um, and then you have you have your frogs already cooked.
SPEAKER_01Okay, well, on that bombshell, Chris, um that's all for this week. Christopher Elkwistern, thank you very much for joining me. Thank you very much. And of course, if you like what you see, don't forget to hit that subscribe button. I'm Paul Harris, digging deep for Kitco Mining.
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