Week 11 Preview and Predictions

Tune in to hear picks for the biggest games of Week 11 and T Huck and Marler's Best Bets!

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SPEAKER_02 0:36

Welcome back, everybody, to Fourth and Wrong. I'm your host, Tylan Huck. With me as always, Chris Marlar. Chris, it's already week eleven, buddy.

SPEAKER_01 0:44

Dude, that sucks.

SPEAKER_02 0:46

But we're not gonna we're not gonna wallow.

SPEAKER_01 0:49

We're gonna swallow. We don't we all swallow or wallow. We spit. Roll tap. We're about to hit these parlays, brother. Do you guys see the video from today?

SPEAKER_02 1:05

Uh from our guy on Instagram?

SPEAKER_01 1:07

Yeah.

SPEAKER_02 1:09

No, no, I don't follow him actually.

SPEAKER_01 1:11

What the fuck, Tyler? Are you even do you even care about anything? Do you care about anything besides your family, your kids, your job, but being great in the community? Is there anything that you care about besides that selfish crap? I don't care about sports anymore. I know that. Y'all won last week by like a bazillion points.

unknown 1:34

Good.

SPEAKER_02 1:35

Now we'll keep Mike Norvell and we'll have another season of this.

unknown 1:39

Okay.

SPEAKER_01 1:40

Well, I mean, that'll be.

SPEAKER_02 1:41

Okay, we're not gonna wallow. We're not we're not wallowing. We're not gonna worry about how bad the Falcons are after spending you know four or five straight years on first round picks, still being bad on offense. We're not gonna wallow in that.

SPEAKER_01 1:55

Yeah, well, I tell you what, I've had a crazy week down here in Baton Rouge because we didn't do a show last week.

SPEAKER_02 2:03

Yeah. Which is my thought. So let's talk about that. What's going on down there? It seems crazy.

SPEAKER_01 2:09

Well, I have high blood pressure, so I was in the hospital, and then Brian Kelly got fired. Equally big stories. Um better booze? That's much better. God, you sound odd.

SPEAKER_02 2:22

Um it switches when we go live. It's done this three weeks in a row.

SPEAKER_01 2:27

Should we just cancel the show?

SPEAKER_02 2:30

Is it a Prabuza thing? Prabuza. All right, anyways. So governor's involved, interim ad fire the ad, interim ad is now the current ad. What's going on down there?

SPEAKER_01 2:43

It is wild. Um, it's wild. It is like the the AD thing was the weirdest part because like the governor's saying, I just what's like genuinely what's weird down here, guys, and I'm not trying to like make like light of it or be funny or anything. I've never been in a state where this has ever happened. Like, I've never heard of that happening. Where the state in in in this day and age, where the governor is like, right, no, I'm doing this, and it's what I say goes blah blah blah. Like, dude, he was at the governor was asked about it when he was at a snap benefits press conference.

SPEAKER_02 3:21

Like they were like, who the uh the AD is gonna be or who the coach is gonna be, or what somebody mentioned Scott Woodward's name.

SPEAKER_01 3:29

Why is this why am I blurry? Oh boy, I will that sucks. Yeah, um, I just all I did was sit there. Is that better? What's happening?

SPEAKER_02 3:40

No, you gotta get it right up there as close as you can get. That's what's clear. Okay, well, I don't know why it was it was in the four yet. Closer.

SPEAKER_01 3:51

Yeah, there you go. See, perfect. Hey guys, anyway. Um this is fucking bullshit. What is happening right now? Brambuza, what's happening? All right, all right, we're back. So anyway, guys. Um we're live. It just means more Blair Witch Project. Okay.

SPEAKER_00 4:14

I'm so scared.

SPEAKER_01 4:16

So, anyway, we're out here in the fields, and uh, here's basically what's going on. I'm reporting live from the ground here. As you can tell from behind me, a lot of fighting going on here in Baton Rouge. Um, thank you, Doc E Rock.

SPEAKER_02 4:30

Uh, anyway, a lot of uh teeth, it's pearly whites, they're pretty white.

SPEAKER_01 4:35

They are, they look good. Um one fell out, but we don't talk about that right now. Um, anyway, so this this whole like the governor comes in and is like, Well, I would I would let uh Donald Trump make the hire before I even let Scott Woodward make the hire. And it was like, yeah, we're talking about kids not being able to eat um with snap benefits. So, like, what's what do you have to say about that? And he's like, and another thing about I don't even know what snap benefits are, I'll be honest with you.

SPEAKER_02 5:02

Uh is that a Cajun accent or does he have a speech impediment?

SPEAKER_01 5:07

A little bit of this, a little bit of that.

SPEAKER_02 5:08

Okay.

SPEAKER_01 5:09

All right, yeah. So he then waited on that, and then like then he the the AD quit or fire was fired the next day, and then and then like what were your thoughts on that, by the way?

SPEAKER_02 5:22

Because I mean, I obviously football, you know, everyone's talking about he gave Jimbo that huge contract, and then he you know doubled down on this with the Brian Kelly thing, right? But then the argument could be made like all these other sports uh LSU are really good. Now, football's all that matters, but like Jay Johnson was a fantastic hire. Obviously, you got the women's basketball, the women's basketball coach, uh Kimby.

SPEAKER_01 5:47

Um 61 to 6 at half, by the way.

SPEAKER_02 5:51

Oh, nice. Okay, so like you want me to get into women's basketball, not you, but just the royal like, but it's like I just want you to be happy. Can we get a little bit more of a like bunch football speed? Or we're just we've we spread talent across the board, so we don't have these 75 to 7 at the half scores, like yeah, that's it. How could anybody watch that and have fun? Male or female.

SPEAKER_01 6:23

That's true. I mean it's funny, and it is funny the the scores themselves are fucking hysterical.

SPEAKER_02 6:28

Like they won by 102 last week, and and also the teams are rather just see that in a tweet than have to watch the entire thing.

SPEAKER_01 6:37

Yeah, well, I mean, definitely retweet the tweet for sure. Um, but no, so anyway, the Scott Woodman thing I think was odd because it's like I get the Brian Kelly part of it, but he also he uh what from what I was told around here, and I don't know all the ins and outs of this place. Um, nobody seemed shocked that this was the way all this went down. Like nobody nobody seemed like it was a abnormal thing. Am I so fucking blurry? Um abnormal thing for this to be happening, and that's wild to me because it's very abnormal. And then I went to that press conference for Virg Osbury on Friday, and I just I wasn't even thinking, and I I just took a picture, posted what he said, and it was like, We're not broken, we are LSU. And I didn't realize that the front of the podium had his like had like a purple like tablecloth, and they they never ironed it. Oh, and so it was just like this fucking wrinkled, like horrible looking tablecloth. Everyone's like, what the fuck is going on? And of course, I never noticed it, but everyone has had a field day with that. It's just been a while.

SPEAKER_02 7:43

And then and then it makes it way worse when you're like, We're not broken, man.

SPEAKER_01 7:47

Right.

SPEAKER_02 7:48

The shirts like all wrinkled and shit. Yeah, I've been shaved and I don't know.

SPEAKER_01 7:54

It's it's been it's been a while. I it'll be interesting to see this week. I think we'll talk about that game for sure. Florida State won. That feels like it's a good thing.

SPEAKER_02 8:01

No, no, I mean, I'm never gonna root for him to lose, obviously. It just seems like the most perfect thing to happen. And when I say perfect, I mean the worst thing to happen. We just run the table, and it's like, well, you know, hey, look, granted, we did lose to Stanford, who's probably the worst power five team or power four team. Yeah, granted, we lost to Virginia, who I know they're ranked whatever in the top 15, but Virginia's smoking ears, they're not that good. Um, got crushed by a Miami team who's not very good. So, I mean, like I just I don't want them to lose ever, but it's like I'm kind of hoping they don't rattle off a few wins here at the end of the season, so we could just move on. I know it's a crazy cycle. Um, I'm not sure that we'd even be in the market for the highest paid coaches, anyways, just because I don't think that's the move they need to make next. And really, in college football, you know, it could be argued like is it worth it to pay somebody like $15 million a year or just get like an up-and-coming coordinator and then build like an NFL type back office behind him that like handles all the NIL trans report, all that shit, and just this guy is a great recruiter, that's all he does. He coaches and recruits. I think that's the way to handle it, especially if you're a team like Force 8 who just got done paying a massive buyout and now is gonna have to pay another one.

SPEAKER_01 9:27

I it feels like it's an endless cycle unless you get it right. Because in this day and age, like what's good enough to have somebody have like any sort of job security or longevity in their career? It's it's like, yeah, eight wins is great, but it's not good enough for us. We need to move on from this and and figure out it's like it does feel like it's a never-ending cycle. I've said this since 2020 or before that like money's not real in college football. It's becoming closer and closer to being real because it's like it is the like the the uh amount that people are paying. Like, I thought Auburn got off pretty, pretty like pretty good, I guess, with the Hugh Freeze thing. Uh what was that? Like 18 million.

SPEAKER_02 10:10

Yeah, that's kind of shocking. It was that low, to be honest.

SPEAKER_01 10:13

Well, but that was one of the reasons they hired him because it was like he had very little leverage considering his past, and they're giving him a second chance at this program. That it made sense from both sides. The other part of it, like they Auburn fans got all fucking butthurt about it, but it was like, well, they've had three coaches in the last six years, they've had to pay buyouts to or five years, and it's like they paid him 53 million. LSU is supposed to pay Brian Kelly 53 million, they are not going to pay him 53 million. Um, but yeah, like it like the way that you set all these things up, that's also interesting. I think you're gonna start seeing some Klarna shit. I really I think you're gonna start seeing deals that I would have made. Like, listen, you can pay 50 million, or you can pay me 40 right now instead of a 50. Like, I think you're gonna see people build those into like some plans because that's what that's why Mark Stoop sells a job because he has like they owe him 31 million and they owe half of it in the first 30 days. And they're like, We're not gonna fucking do that.

SPEAKER_02 11:08

Well, it's gonna be interesting to see the first hire that happens. I mean, like, do you think LSU is gonna go all out for Kiffin?

SPEAKER_01 11:17

Um, they're gonna offer Kiffin. I think the thing that's interesting is there's like some fucking old Miss fans that are out of their minds saying that like he's worth 20 million. It's like, no, he's not. No, he's not. Like, like no coach is worth that.

SPEAKER_02 11:30

He's never he's never won a title, he's never what made the playoff. I mean, Kirby doesn't make 20.

SPEAKER_01 11:39

No, he makes 13. Yeah, like it's I I think that after the governor stepped in, what you what I think Jeff said this to me earlier, it's like that's the best job in college football at LSU, and then it quickly became not the best job because the governor had to go into a fucking clown show, and it's just so stupid. I think what pissed me off more than anything, Tyler, is that he didn't um he didn't have uh what do you call it? Um he didn't have enough uh what was the word I'm looking for here? Like he didn't say anything factual in what he was talking about, like he he didn't say anything factual about what he was talking about. He was like, Yeah, you know, he's they're gonna the good the the taxpayers are gonna have to pay for this. And then there's also this part because if they had the same agent, it's like no, they have different agents, the taxpayers are not gonna have to pay for this, they've never had to pay for this, and he's going on like Pat McAfee, and like we had him on our show on with Matt, like he had on AFR, and he was like, it was fucking wild. He he made a comment, Tyler, about how he thought it the biggest travesty is like they they weren't a winning program, they weren't even gonna be in contention for the Bowl Championship series. Oh, yeah, I did hear that. Yeah, like so I that part was very surprising to me. I think that they'll go after Kiffin. I think if you're Kiffin, you stay put. What I've heard is that it's him, Lincoln Riley, and and Eli Drinkwood's of the top three down there.

SPEAKER_02 13:04

Well, I did hear Josh Pate drop the little nugget. Did you see that?

SPEAKER_01 13:08

I I heard about this about like a week ago from from somebody at Florida, and I was like, I'm not gonna fucking say a word about this because I don't feel like that's a that's a wild thing to just say. Um and then Pate said it, and I was like, okay, now we can probably talk about it. But yeah, that's like it's a very real interesting. I mean, how would you feel about that? Um I'm gonna gain 100 pounds after the wedding.

SPEAKER_02 13:40

Who is this? Did Prabuza just ban? Did you ban somebody? Hell yeah. Um Booza was always the enforcer. I love it, dude. He's always been the enforcer.

SPEAKER_01 13:52

Um buddy, I'll gain 100 pounds before the wedding. What the fuck are you talking about? Don't challenge me. That was the um no, I I I think that Kivin is he's not worth 20 million. I think that this whole realignment stuff and and like the the issue with with what LSU's had happened. I think you kind of recalibrate where your head's at in terms of like like he has the longest leash at all miss. He has the longest leash there. Now, there are people here in Baton Rouge that have said they are prepared if they want to go after a big coach, they're prepared to go after somebody in the the process of buying out Kelly, all the the other coaches, and the entire thing of hiring a new person, they are prepared to to have a budget of 100 to 115 million um to pay for that, if if if need be. But there's also a very strong case to go after somebody like Calvin Shepherd, um, Joe Brady, where you could they're already making like I think Brady's making 1.8 million at the bills, and so you could probably offer him five and then still not have. That's what I'm talking about.

SPEAKER_00 14:52

Yeah, yeah.

SPEAKER_01 14:53

And I think that's a good I think it's a good spot.

SPEAKER_02 14:56

Dude, the game's crazy right now. I mean, I'm sitting here looking at a top 25 where number two is Indiana, yeah. Number seven, BYU, like number eight, Texas Tech, Virginia, Vanderbilt, Georgia Tech. Like the game has changed where I don't think you need a $15 million coach to go out and at least make the playoff. Yeah. And I mean, like, I think for LS even guy like Summerall would be great. I mean, he's got SEC experience. I mean, he's clearly done very well at both Troy, like he built Troy, and then he took over a good two-lane team and sustained what they had going. Like, I think he'd be a good candidate. Like, I don't think you have to, but then again, in the SEC, it just means more. I don't think Summerall would be good enough for the for the fan base there.

SPEAKER_01 15:43

Well, what's weird about the LSU thing, too, I didn't know this either, is that they they have a very real hang-up on the fact that like this is you can't hire somebody from a lesser school in the state. LSU is the premier school. There's 13 schools, I think, in state of Louisiana, like LaTeX, UL Monroe, Tulane, ULL. You're not gonna name all 14, are you? I don't think I know what they are anyway. But like, um, but I think that I appreciate you saying, but I I don't think that they're they're good enough. There that would be a such a downplay or a downgrade from the in their eyes, something like that. I don't know. Do you want to play a game of a predictable result?

SPEAKER_02 16:22

That was the whole thing with Napier back in the day. Like when he was at Louisiana, they were like, We we would never stoop to that level, right? Which I guess well, the guy they picked and the guy that and Napier, neither one turned out. Um, but dude, it's just so crazy, like yeah, naming all the Louisiana schools, like sitting there thinking too, like you're stuck on like six.

SPEAKER_01 16:45

Oh, I knew I knew one of them. I knew what Southeastern, Southeastern is the other yeah, yeah.

SPEAKER_02 16:51

Um, but then and like I just named those schools on the surprise good side, and then you look at a team like Florida State last year or Penn State this year, three wins when they had all these guys come back. I think about a team like Penn State or Clemson this year, even worse than Florida State last year. Because at least last year, Florida State lost all their good players, and they were trying to recreate what they had in the portal, and it didn't work. Yeah, Penn State and Clemson, like they returned everyone they had, especially on offense, and neither one of their offenses are that good. Clemson's defense, they got Tom Allen from Penn State. Everyone thought that was a great hiring, me included. Yeah, their defense has been terrible. Penn State hired Jim Knowles, right? Three million a year. So, I mean, who like you don't need a $15 million coach?

SPEAKER_01 17:41

That's all I'm saying. I I think you're right. And also, I think in this day and age, dude, how many times do you talk about the Jimmies and the Joes versus the X and the O's? We've talked about that forever. Like, it's like more Jimmies and Joes, next to the N's like each other the most recruit. So it's like we've we've all abided by that principle that that's a real factual thing. So why would you go pay someone? Like, I'll say this. You know who I have more love and respect for Nick Saban than any person maybe in my life. He's not even in my life. But I mean, like, Nick Saban, I I will hold on the highest pedestal of all time from a coaching standpoint. There's rumors that he was like, they're like, they're gonna call him and they're gonna offer him 20 to 25 million for three years, and then no, but the so listen, I will tell you this. What's up, Charlie? 40 to 25 million a year, and I I will tell you without hesitation, there was a call made and there was a conversation that was had, and he's not gonna come tell us you, but like I don't know if those are the ins and outs of it. Tallahassee, baby Big Dig Nook, come down Tallahassee, baby. Um, but I think I think that we make that call, and I think that's a good business decision to say, is it worth it if he comes back and then figure it out? But here's the other part too. If you give that guy three years and he doesn't win, which he's only what he only won one in his last six years, like it's a phenomenal clip. Went in 2018, 2020, 2021, playoffs in 2023. But like you're putting so much investment into you better fucking win a national title in three years, otherwise, this is all for nothing.

SPEAKER_02 19:21

I don't and I mean I guess you could, but didn't he leave the game because he hates the what it is today, anyways? Pretty much, yeah. So why would he have a mess? Well, besides the money, I mean, obviously, like you pay him that money, and it's like, how bad does he even really want to be there?

SPEAKER_01 19:38

I mean, I at 74 years old, yeah, right, exactly.

SPEAKER_02 19:43

So, um, I mean, there's other 74-year-olds out there killing it right now. Think about Bill Belchak or Pete Carroll. Big win. Um, all right, should we get in the slate this week? I I'm not seeing the board as well as it did last week, but I think there's some that I like.

SPEAKER_01 19:59

Wait, how about this? Let's play a real quick game of just matchmaker of who you think goes where. So let's bring Pabooza in, and he's gonna say, oh no. Let's bring Paboo back in. Stop being a bitch. So stay there.

SPEAKER_00 20:17

All right.

SPEAKER_01 20:17

So you say a school that has an opening, we'll start the SP for sure, and then and then we we'll just real quick, we'll tell them who think goes there. Texas. They already have a coach, you don't get the fuck out. All right, we're done. Yeah, you know what, we gotta fire him, dude. We can't afford anybody neither. That's the problem. Um Arkansas. Oh man. Arkansas. Uh the guy from Memphis. I actually think Petrino is ends up being the hire.

SPEAKER_02 20:55

I kind of hope the guy from Memphis takes it, and then Memphis is like, hey, Mike Norvell. Run it back. Run it back. Nobody goes to buy out. Florida State's like, you know what? You don't even know us anything, just take him. It's so bad. Yeah. Uh so yeah, I that one makes the most sense. I mean, I remember when Arkansas opened up uh before Pittman was hired, there they were there was the thought that Norvell was going to come from Memphis that time. You know, I guess regionally kind of recruit the same areas and stuff like that. So and Silverfield's done a good job in Memphis. I think I don't know that Arkansas fans would be excited about that, but I don't know what would make them excited at this point, though. Yeah.

SPEAKER_01 21:41

Uh Auburn. Summerall. Summer all. I think Summerall, but I'll I'll tell you the other thing too. I I said this other day keep an eye out for Kenny Dillingham. He's gonna go somewhere because he is not getting anywhere close to the amount of resources he wants at Arizona State. I think he's gonna end up being on. like like if lsu swings and misses on the first two or three he he is a a viable option I think in in uh uh uh what do you call it in Baton Rouge dude he's the you want to talk about a culture fit like with his personality at LSU oh it would be awesome it would be unbelievable like I think he would that would be that would work well I think yeah and I but I will say I think DJ Durkin ends up getting it because here's the thing second chance yeah the guy they killed the guy I know I know who he is but I mean he got in trouble for throwing Snickers at his players for being too fat it's honestly pretty sweet move yeah Allie does that to me all the time um no I I think I think he ends up going there and then I think that uh or I'm sorry I think I think Durkin gets a job there because they're gonna get him on the cheap who's gonna go to Florida drinkwits I think it's I think it's Lincoln Riley or I think it's I thought you were saying I thought you were saying Lincoln Riley was going to LSU no Florida oh shit yes that's well I was I was told Lincoln Riley a week a little over a week ago but I was specifically told Lincoln Riley at Florida not Lincoln Riley at LSU oh okay it came out and I think everyone assumed it's at LSU but after what happened last time yeah that's a tough sell damn dude Lincoln Riley at Florida that well at least I know they'd never have a a defense which is nice but damn that would suck a little bit I don't know I guess he does a good job recruiting that's really kind of what matters yeah um I don't know the USC is just now I feel like establishing himself in the top 25 after how many years he's been there.

SPEAKER_02 23:45

Mm-hmm still a lot of season left too okay what what other schools Penn State um I don't care drinkwoods is a viable option there. That's what I was I didn't realize he was from Pennsylvania.

SPEAKER_01 23:58

Makes sense he does he's got a couple of Amish tendencies I feel like he look he he does he looks like an Amish guy he seems like the kind of person that has like an abacus you know just for fun um do you think anyone will try to get Clark Lee I I do I think they will do I don't think he's a great fit for anywhere like that turnaround at Vandy took for fucking ever I know and it's like we're gonna have it when Pavio leaves kind of deal well the but they also signed like 87 25 year olds right and then they turned it around like I think he's also a guy that's like if I'm South Carolina I'm going after the fucking opposite coordinator immediately um somebody's probably gonna like that's that's the next iteration the guy that Jerry Kill just eating fucking ice cream yeah well you know he's the guy that brought Pavia to Vandy yeah yeah so just go right just go get him maybe Pavia comes back for another year you know actually you never know at this point um what do you think about the slate this week it's a little for late in the season I it's a little weak yeah there's a lot of teams on by like across the country Indiana Penn State is like what is was supposed to be a pretty big one um Mizzou AM is supposed to be a little bit bigger but they have like the injuries at quarterback right that's interesting because both those teams are going to buy and even LSU Bama like LSU just fired their coach so it's just like well that that makes that game kind of who knows what's gonna happen.

SPEAKER_02 25:37

No one's talking about it enough and I'm starting to get worried.

SPEAKER_01 25:39

Alex Atkins is a terrible OC though yeah but they're so I've said this for a bunch if we want to start with the Bam game we can the other one I was going to say earlier by the way Clemson Florida State is wild that no one's talking about that nobody nobody I mean I get I get why but like yeah no I get why too but I mean it's crazy that that's just the Clemson to me is crazy. I mean I had them in the I had them in the championship game insane like on on paper they still have like three top 15 picks on defense and they just give up 45 fucking points.

SPEAKER_02 26:09

The Duke I mean it's crazy um I the the BYU Texas tech game I'm kind of that's I actually think that's gonna be a good game.

SPEAKER_01 26:21

It's weird it's a 10 point line and I know I know this is eight and one against the spread this year.

SPEAKER_02 26:29

I got some notes here lead the way Tyler lead the way I'll shut up go ahead I'm excited all right okay so a game that I'm excited about um because I think it's a a very interesting spot is the 12 news that's the other one nickel state is the other Louisiana school I'm just fucking with you oh yeah McNeese McNeese go ahead all right uh Georgia number five going into Mississippi State's a noon game spread right now at least earlier today was Mississippi State plus nine at home um this is not a game that I think like uh oh watch out Georgia you know here comes the upset it's just one of those Georgia to me this year is that team that like maybe losing at some point during the game or they're definitely not winning as much as you would think but ultimately they're gonna pull the game out and win. It's just like I still I still am not as impressed with them as I I guess I wasn't really expecting to be because I didn't know what Gunner was going to be and he's been pretty good. I mean pissed me off that he kneeled I know he's a damn good dog for doing it damn good dog for doing it but DGD baby doesn't help me with the betting line no it didn't um so Mississippi obviously has been I think much better than expected this year. Even in these some of these games like maybe they don't have a ton of wins but like they they took Texas Tech or I mean sorry Texas to overtime and Tennessee to overtime to overtime who who else did they recently play close they blew it against Florida.

SPEAKER_01 28:14

Yes Florida yes exactly eight and one dude like it's crazy and so they're at home it's a 11 a.m local game Georgia's got to go on the road who's Georgia got next week Texas yeah there's a little sleepy spot sleepy sleepy I like Mississippi State here.

SPEAKER_02 28:33

I don't you know it's just a kind of a scenario that I like more so than anything.

SPEAKER_01 28:38

Yeah so I like I like Mississippi State to cover the nine um and give me the over to you know Georgia's uh Georgia's defense man I'm just I'm not I'm not impressed so here's I love the first half spread I think it's I think it's like 10 and a half or seven and a half I want to say um I love that and let me tell you why because I got some numbers for you Tyler thanks for coming out James O'Quinn yeah it's been a minute since I've seen that guy um he looks great by the way in the in the in the chat um let me tell you let me tell you a number okay um Georgia is playing Mississippi State yeah yes how much of the public money is on Georgia 75% total money is on Georgia it's point spread now the point spread has risen to nine and a half it's currently at nine now but do you want to know how much of the point spread I'm sorry yeah the point spread money is on Georgia uh 75% three three percent of the money is on Georgia I'm looking at it right now on the Action Network 27% of the bets three percent of the money okay so that's all public money then right I no it's that's some sharp money too it's just that the total number of of our total amount of money okay so what are you saying here?

SPEAKER_02 30:18

Is it I don't know Tyler I thought you'd be smart enough to fucking decipher it for me I don't know what these numbers mean um you just said the number expecting me to then decipher that I thought you would have like an aha moment I'd be like yeah I know right that's crazy all right what's the numbers three percent three percent of the money is on Georgia let me let me let me read this again you ready so this is I'm reading on action network right now okay yeah I was I'm with I'm with Evan in the chat like I thought the game opened at minus eight no is it opened at seven and a half and it rose to it's at currently even more more of the point like three percent of the money's on Georgia and all of a sudden the mine's at nine and a half that doesn't make any sense 70 73% of the bets are on Mississippi State 97% of the money is on Mississippi State it says sharp action is on Georgia big money is on Mississippi State okay what are you what's your pick probably Georgia okay so you think they cover the spread um I think it's close to the beginning Mississippi State is top 10 in the country I probably should open with this number because I know what it means um it's they're top 10 in the country in in first quarter points per game against FC's opponents is like 9.56 points per game in the first quarter Georgia is around like 96th.

SPEAKER_01 31:47

They've had a lot of slow starts I don't know why um and they're on the road also here's another fact too um Mississippi State's 8-1 against the spread that's tied for best overall in all of FPS along with Texas Tech and someone else I thought Cincinnati so it feels like Mississippi State is like the correct play but I also just feel like they're coming off a huge win they finally got a win at Arkansas. Georgia's also coming off a big win but Georgia's they're a better team and I I don't feel like you're gonna have a letdown spot. It's an 11 a.m kick too so it's not like the Cowbells will be that crazy all right so you're taking Georgia on taking Mississippi State we're we're head to head on that one. And I'm going over on that game too I think a lot of points only four percent of the over number is under two percent is bro you even using VSI or what does that mean?

SPEAKER_02 32:43

I don't know um all right another big one in the SEC 330 number three Texas AM going into number 22 Missouri uh Missouri is a seven point underdog at home yeah total is 47 and a half I'll look up some useless numbers for that game too and tell you about them here in a second if you want them I think this is just a pure vibes play everybody's been talking about AM a lot recently especially after some of their big momentum wins and everyone's like ah Missouri you know they got this freshman quarterback he's actually kind of good yeah Madden Mollers yeah he's a true freshman I get it but I mean what what I think he came in what did he make one start 20 of 30 for 213 yards two touchdowns no picks I mean not bad they've got one of the best running backs in the country um I'm not saying that they're gonna beat AM but it just seems this is a pure vibes play Chris this is the vibes play of the week as we do every week you know the vibes play we've been doing everyone's that we all we've been doing that roll vibes so yeah um I just think Missouri covers the spread um I think it'll be close AM maybe it's just a couple turnovers have a little problem on the road one of those games that they've got to get through to get to where they're trying to go even though it's a ranked I mean it's a tough game but it's just a backup QB but I'll still take Missouri cover the spread I kind of like the over because like maybe they I don't AM's defense isn't great.

SPEAKER_01 34:19

Yeah I agree with that I will I will also tell you I um have seen this drop down to five and a half in some places and you know how I fucking feel about a five and a half point spread Mizzou coming off the bye AM coming off the bye it is it's in Como which I love. I just I I think you're the biggest thing I I think you're right about is which team comes out more focused out of the bye. I love I love um Mike Elko I also feel like Draco it's their it's back's against the wall they have they have to win out if they're gonna have a chance to make the playoff I don't think he's letting any outside noise in so I think they keep it close. I do think a true freshman quarterback against Mike Elko is a tough sell for me. And they might be able to put up points especially early when they're more on script and all that kind of stuff. I have zero doubt in my mind that at the end of this game though AM will pull away I actually think they're gonna cover and I'm gonna hate it the entire time because I think Tyler it's gonna be it's gonna be a six point game the entire fucking time and then he will have a a strip sack late in the fourth quarter and they will end up turning it into a touchdown or like and win by 14. It'll be something stupid like that I feel like I could definitely see that.

SPEAKER_02 35:34

Thanks for putting that in the air my bad um any thoughts on like the Auburn Vandy game because I find it interesting that Vandy so freeze is gone who's the interim Durkin six and a half point Vandy's at home less than a touchdown favorite against Auburn who presumably I don't know who's calling the plays I don't know what's going on there but they didn't know that year before though so it's like that's fair um I it's weird because it dude Vandy still has all their playoff hopes in front of him it does feel like in one week everyone forgot about him.

SPEAKER_01 36:10

Like this is a big game. Like it's a this is a really big game here's the one thing I do know I I don't know who covers in this game. I do know that Vanderbilt has a better quarterback by a long shot they have probably maybe they don't have a better defense but they have a very good and capable defense and they have a much better offense that doesn't turn the ball over a lot that doesn't like put themselves in bad positions stuff like that like Auburn does all those things and they're on the road and it's in a fucking horrible environment where you can't really get super fired up. I don't know if their fans are going to travel for it but I just like this is the only team in the entire fucking SEC besides Texas that Vandy has an all-time 500 or better winning record against is Auburn. The all-time record is 22 and 22 and one I think Vandy wins I I think they cover I think you see some very inspired football for the first quarter first half maybe they're they're they're doing dumb oop-ty-doop bullshit on on on offense and throwing like reverse screens or reverse um wide receiver passes and and shit like that I don't know but like I just think that Vanderbilt is a much better football team and they're at home and they have way more on the line um I don't really have any I don't really have any interest in like covering the Florida Kentucky game all I'll say is just give me the under.

SPEAKER_02 37:34

I mean Florida Florida actually their defense is actually still pretty good and they still try hard even though they don't have a coach um like the interim's is he still out too for punching the guy we we don't know right who's coaching them oh Billy gets Billy gets us yeah so their defense is still playing hard Kentucky's offense is horrible um vice versa on Florida their offense like I all the receivers are hurt now yeah also I know the the total is 44 and a half um but I still like the under.

SPEAKER_01 38:10

Other than that what a bullshit game so how about this how about how about Kentucky has lost they or I'm sorry they have won four times against Florida in the last 39 years.

SPEAKER_02 38:23

Three of the four have come in the last four years four total wins since 1987 three of those four have come in the last four games so I it's on the road i flo Florida's just they're a supremely talented team I will say cutter bowley's been a lot better he's been a lot better as a as a um QB over the past couple games I I have to say Florida I think that like after what we saw last week especially they're gonna be able to control the clock they don't do dumb shit like turn the ball over um they're a better they're a better team even they have 13 players out in this game Kentucky has eight by far the most in any of any matchup um in the SEC I think I think Florida gets it done though last game to cover in the SEC here uh 730 ABC game LSU goes in Tuscaloosa number four Alabama Bama currently a 10 point favorite total 49 and a half yeah I'm just gonna tell you right now I I I I think Bama rolls here I I mean I just don't see a scenario where LSU's like goes in like if it was a home game and they just fired Kelly and it's like oh we've got all this relief and now maybe maybe you go on the road and maybe that's all the relief you need get away from Baton Rouge and you come with your coach play free I get that that angle but I just think Bama is a very good team um I know they can't run the ball but their offense is still very good Ty Simpson I gotta imagine is going to be in New York at this point barring something crazy. And I just don't LSU haven't seen it all year they they still can't run the ball I don't I guess Nelsmeyer I don't know if he's hurt but he's just I mean we were talking about the Saints taking him with the number overall number one overall pick at the beginning of the year and it's like I haven't even I feel like I've barely even seen him play. Like no like highlights anything like they're not on the field a lot.

SPEAKER_01 40:29

And when he they are he's running for his life I mean so it's like I think you're right. I do think this is gonna be an interim coach bump. I think they're gonna like I listen I I've brought up this stat a bazillion times and I'll continue to do so Bama owns LSU in general and they own them in in LSU in Louisiana more than uh um than any uh any other team I think ever has. Like they they've had six losses there since 1957. LSU playing away from home is a much better I think thing for them as a team than it than playing at home because that that's also you've created this environment now where it's a very apathetic crowd they're all like frustrated they they leave early they're booing so now you get to get a Tuscaloose that you just have a crowd that's going to stay in it and you have a chance to shut them up we're we're gonna do our best bets after this right yeah these are some of my best bets but yeah I've got more um because I have three from this game that I think will be good two are props but I think this this matchup the one thing I keep saying about Bama is I don't feel like they if you if I I don't feel like any team has lined up and run the football consistently at them the way they should. Georgia got away from it late in that game I thought um what do you call it I thought that Vanderbilt did the same thing. I thought Mazoo I mean Ahmad Hardy had 11 carries for for like 48 yards going into the fourth quarter in that game against them against Mazoo and he ended up with 12 carries for 52 yards like like they they went away from their bread and butter. Tennessee never really got a chance to do that. I feel like LSU is horrible at running the football but they're also the interim coach has been very vocal this week Frank Wilson about that they are going to be intentional about trying to establish the run and they're gonna do it early. Bama's ranked rush defense is not great. They're like they give like four and a half yards a carry it's it's ranked pretty pretty low um their strength is in the secondary so I think you're gonna see more intent to run the football and the interim coach by the way was the running backs coach. So that's what I think you'll see from from them. The other thing is what Bama does Bama can't run the football like they cannot run the football. They don't do it well I don't know if they're gonna have all of a sudden great success doing it against LSU I'm not saying they will or won't I I don't I don't know. But they do throw the ball a fuck ton and if there's one strength of this LSU team regardless of who the coach is or who's hurt or whatever else it is pass defense and the secondary because they are loaded with Monsort Delaney the safeties are two of the best probably the best tandem in the country they are very very good um at in the secondary so I think you're gonna see a struggle early.

SPEAKER_02 43:01

I think it's gonna be a lot closer than I'm comfortable with or that I want to see um they are at home and I feel like they will pull it out but I feel like it's gonna be fucking miserable dude yeah for you definitely um quickly the one uh ranked matchup in the Big Ten number nine Oregon goes to number 20 Iowa uh Oregon is a six and a half point favorite on the road total 41 and a half I like the over in this game um I get it I mean Iowa's defense whatever but Oregon's one of the most talented teams in the country and I'd like to say that they're probably going to cover this game as well. But I you know Iowa's offense is still not great but it's not what it has been in the past. So I think at home, you know 330 game I think they could rise up and and score enough points to go over the 41 and a half that's a pretty low total. I mean I think that's the lowest total of the week. Yeah. That that side was Stanford UNC, which um so I think Oregon's got enough firepower on offense to score enough points to go over that total. Um okay. And I mean six and a half points. I don't know. I I probably wouldn't take a side because Kennick Stadium, everything about Iowa, just that screams like stay away from that. Yeah. But Oregon is a much, much, much more talented team than Iowa.

SPEAKER_01 44:27

Who's Oregon's lost to? Indiana at home? There's something about what they do on the road, it feels like, where they they get real excited about getting away from Alison and going to shut up an entire stadium. Um, I don't think they're gonna be super freaked out about playing in front of 80,000 people. I mean it might even be less than that. Like, I don't I don't think now the game continues to go on, and in in Iowa can like drag them down into the muck and get this into some shitty looking low-scoring game, then yeah, like the the longer that that plays, like the better I would feel for um for Iowa, but I I I'm with you. I think Oregon wins. I think they cover this right. I think it's probably close, but I think seven is not a bad spot for them to win.

SPEAKER_02 45:14

Um no particularly like ranked compelling matchups in the ACC. Obviously, four state goes to Clemson. Clemson opened as a two and a half point favorite. I think they did down to one and a half at this point. Yeah. Um, dude, this is like a battle of just sheer terrible when it comes to the the situation for both these teams. Forestate hasn't won a road game since 2023. Right. I I believe the I believe that the streak now for Clemson. I this can't be right, but I want to say it is nine straight home games to power four teams they've lost.

SPEAKER_01 45:53

I think it's seven. Seven six, yeah.

SPEAKER_02 45:56

And then that includes obviously this isn't a power four game, but where they were they were down to Troy like 17 to nothing at home.

SPEAKER_01 46:04

Yeah, and they were also down dig to do 28 to 7.

SPEAKER_02 46:08

So I I'm too close to the situation. I'm willing to recognize that. Um, this feels like an opportunity for Clemson to say, if not now, like quitting on Dabo. Like one last effort. You you at least have a big logo coming in home. It's a conference rival, no matter how bad both of us are. Let's get up and and win this game. And Florida State's been so bad on the road that they're so inconsistent, they're so hot and cold. It's not gonna surprise me at all if they looked very good last week, they come out and look terrible next week on the road. I just I can't, I don't trust them enough. I I think they're a better team than Clemson is. Yeah, but I just every close game that they're in, they lose. So what makes me think if they're in a close game with Clemson that they're gonna win it?

SPEAKER_01 46:57

I think that's fair. Um I think it's really fair. I I the funniest thing I have seen anywhere um on Action Network earlier today. This line I it had to be a typo. I mean, it had to be a typo, but it had it was 12 and a half in the offseason. But it said plus one and a half now. And it had both teams listed at plus one and a half.

SPEAKER_02 47:24

Yeah, I mean, that's obviously a typo.

SPEAKER_01 47:26

I mean, but it just was yeah, yeah.

SPEAKER_02 47:29

That's uh neither one of these people really should be technically favored to win a game.

SPEAKER_01 47:36

Um, I you know, I will pull for I will pull for Florida State harder than any other game, I think, of of the past two years. This is gonna be awesome. I like one, I need you guys to fucking pick up the slack for for Bamma to have like not such a black eye with the loss to you guys. Um but also did like like Clemson, they they could not look worse. Like they did, they just they couldn't look more beatable, and they couldn't look more like like no matter who's playing quarterback, no matter like again, they have three bona fide first rounders, two top ten defensive linemen, and they're giving up 46 points to Duke. And and I Mensah's a good quarterback. Minsa is a lot like Cassianos, man. Like it's like like it's it's a similar type of of of uh of player, I feel like. And so I don't know, man. Maybe this is a Gus Malzon special, and he's just in his fucking bag because that's the that's the one thing, too. Is I I don't think the thing that's beating Clemson anymore is like lack of talent, clearly, because they have talent everywhere. But the thing that's beating them more than anything is I just don't think Dabo cares enough to change the what what he's doing. Like, like I think he's so fucking stubborn and arrogant that he's just like there is no reason for us to change anything that we have done and do anything differently, like regardless of the the outcome. That's that's fucking wild, man.

SPEAKER_02 48:58

Dude, it's crazy. I mean, every after every loss, he gets into a press conference and he starts getting mad at everybody. He's like basically saying, like, what I've done for you guys around here, like I win. You guys are you guys are idiots for thinking that we suck because I'm like six years ago we won championships. So it's like, dude, that's that that would scare the shit out of me if I was a Clemson fan hearing that. Like, you're really digging in on this, huh? Like, yeah, we weren't good last year either. Like we got the playoffs because the ACC is terrible.

SPEAKER_01 49:27

The scary thing is too, man, he he got he got a new coordinator on defense and a new coordinator on offense in the past two years, and it's like he did he he got players from the portal. He like he finally did the whole like no no no I'm I'm fine, I'm I'm doing it, I'm changing. And then it's gone so bad so quickly.

SPEAKER_02 49:54

Yeah, I mean honestly, if I was unbiased, I would think I would think that Florida State could go in there and and win the game, but I just yeah um and then in the Big 12, obviously BYU, number seven BYU uh at number eight Texas Tech. Uh Texas Tech, 10 and a half point favorite, like we said before, total 52 and a half. Um every time I've bet against BYU, they've proved me wrong. They have a quarterback that wears a stupid number. 47. I mean, I think so. For all the talk about like uh you can't just be these this these teams, I think you can have these teams that are flashes like Texas Tech. Yeah, where it's like their entire team was just purchased out of the portal. And I mean both their offense and their defense are top ten in the country.

unknown 50:47

Yeah.

SPEAKER_02 50:48

SP Plus.

SPEAKER_01 50:49

What?

SPEAKER_02 50:49

Um SP Plus has them as the fourth best team in the country. So yeah, behind Ohio State, Indiana, and Texas AM. Uh yeah. Damn, I didn't know any of that. No, Ohio State, Indiana, Oregon, Texas Tech number four. So they're a very good team. Um obviously they're at home. But BYU, man, they've been resilient. They've got on the road, they've had some, they've had some nice games on the road. They they beat Utah, who speaking of SP Plus, SP Plus loves Utah. Um so I think they got enough resilience, at least. I love that I don't know if it still is, but when I was taking notes on the game, it was 10 and a half, which I loved the hook. I think if it was like nine and a half, I would hate it. Um, at least being on the BYU side. Yeah. But uh if anything, I think both these defenses are very good. Um and I think this game goes under the what is it, 52 and a half? Yeah. Yeah. So I'm gonna take the under in the game. And because I like the under, I I think that lends to BYU covering as well.

SPEAKER_01 51:52

I'm with you on BYU covering. I'm a little bit nervous because it seems like that's such an obvious play. Like they're a top 10 team, they're very good. They haven't really stuttered, I feel like, on the road. Like they've been they've been good on both sides. You brought up how good Texas Tech is. That's a very valid point. They're ranked top seven or five in the country in scoring offense and scoring defense. Like they're they're fifth in scoring defense, um, giving up 13.2 points per game, I want to say. Let me make sure I'm right about this. Uh, yeah, 13.2 points per game, and then on scoring offense, they're ranked third, scoring 43.6. Like that's very impressive. But you just keep scrolling down, and a top 20 offensive defense is also very good. And BYU is top 20 in both those things as well. Um, I like the makeup of that team a lot better. I I think I think that they are playing with like a bigger chip on their shoulder. I know that Texas Tech is out of mulligans because if then they have a loss to somebody.

SPEAKER_02 52:46

They lost to Arizona State.

SPEAKER_01 52:52

Um, yeah, so yeah. Um with a backup quarterback. I don't know the quarterback situation. I do know that I feel good about BYU. The 10 and a half is scary, though. And I'll read you what Action Network says, it's very confusing, and I don't get it. But it says sharp money, uh, big money, and pro systems all favor BYU. 42% of the bets on BYU, 92% of the money is on BYU.

SPEAKER_02 53:19

See, that set makes sense to me. That means that even though it's not as much how as many bets coming in on BYU, there's more dollars. That means that sharp money, the bigger money's coming in on them. So I like that for us. Best bets of the weekend. Let's do it. You go first. I've already hit a couple, so I'll cover those. Oregon, Iowa, over 41 and a half, Mississippi State plus nine, and the over 57, Missouri plus seven, uh Texas Tech BYU under 52 and a half, BYU plus 10.5, um, and Florida, Kentucky under 44 and a half. To add to that USC Northwestern on Friday night, USC at home, um, I like over 50 and a half. I like that. Um, they may they may put up 50 themselves on Northwestern, and and I think the defense is bad enough to give up at least some to Northwestern. Um give me Indiana minus 14 and a half on the road against Penn State. I mean, they beat the shit out of everybody they play.

SPEAKER_00 54:17

Penn State sucks.

SPEAKER_02 54:18

Like, if if Penn State was gonna rally and get off the mat, it was gonna be last week against Ohio State, and they got blown out. So it's like uh Indiana is gonna wreck them. I'm actually extremely excited for the Indiana Ohio State Big Ten Championship game.

SPEAKER_01 54:32

I am too. I think they're the best two teams in the country.

SPEAKER_02 54:34

Yeah. Yeah. Give me six six on the road, minus fourteen and a half. Um, I've kind of been battling on this one, but I think I'm just gonna go ahead and go with my gut here. Virginia minus six and a half against Wake. Dude, Wake, first of all, this whole fucking YouTube ESPN thing is killing me.

SPEAKER_01 54:53

It's awful.

SPEAKER_02 54:54

I had to go watch the game, the Wake Force Force 8 game, on like a YouTube condensed game the next day.

SPEAKER_01 55:01

Their offense is terrible. Yeah, and for they're off they're averaging like 5.5 points per game in like the second half of games this year.

SPEAKER_02 55:10

Dude, they're they're so bad. And Virginia's Virginia's offense is pretty good. I think Virginia's smoke and mirrors, like I said, I think they're by far the worst team in the top 25. Um, but I'll take them at home. Um, Lake Forest just looked terrible. And then my last one, this is just a pure spot play. Yukon plus nine and a half uh at home against Duke. Duke coming off the Clemson win. I believe they have basically a game because the ACC is so screwed up this year, just like it is almost every year. But it's like Pitt, Virginia, Duke like all battling it out at the top. They have a big matchup next week. Go on the road to Yukon right in the middle of conference play. Random. I think the game's at like one o'clock in the afternoon, something crazy like that. Yeah, and Yukon's actually pretty good too. Jim Moore is still there. I mean, they're they're a decent team, so I think they can cover the nine and a half at home.

SPEAKER_01 56:01

Few Australia's in America. They have one turnover all year. Yukon. I love I love that pick. I'll follow you on that one. Um, all right, I'll give you this. I I pussied out a little bit this week because we just need wins. We just need wins. I'm not worried about units, okay? Um Indiana to score first. It's minus 200, but I'm taking it. It's the it's the lock of the week. Like them to score first over Penn State. I've also got Penn State team total under 17 and a half. Indiana leads the country in scoring. They are third in defense or score. Uh, I'm sorry, yeah, in total defense, um, giving up 10.8 points per game. You're you're playing a true freshman quarterback. I know it's on the road, but like I think we're giving way too much fucking credence to how good the Happy Valley is with how bad this team is. Um, speaking of defense, uh Miami's playing Syracuse, and they're coming off a loss. But Syracuse is one of the worst defense in the country. It's 113th uh in a cut in America, giving up 31 points per game. Um, they were good last week against UNC, but UNC sucks. And I think this is at Miami. So giving Miami team total over 34 and a half points. I feel like they might get that in the first half. Memphis money line. This game, I got it at 165 for the money line instead of three and a half. Um, it's gone up to six in some places. So I like that. Um that's a good Friday night game. There's some there's some good ones on Friday that I'll definitely watch. BYU plus 10 and a half. I'm with you on that one, man. I I just like it just I think they're too tough. 10 points seems like way too much. In the LSU Bama game specifically, I got three, I got three plays, two of them are props, I think. Um Harlan Barry, the running back for all LSU, over 45 and a half rushing yards in this game. Alabama's rush defense is not great. Harlan Barry's had over 55 yards in each of his past two games. The running backs coach is now the interim head coach. He's the ones that keep saying they're gonna run the football. Harlan Barry is their best back right now. Give it to him. Ty Simpson under 272 and a half passing yards. Um I know that the bread and butter is gonna be throwing the football, but it's still a very good LSU secondary that has not allowed more than that amount of yardage through the air, except twice this year. One of those was against Florida when Florida had the ball for like 40 minutes. So I'll take that. And then Alabama under 31 and a half points. I think I think it's LSU, they might score 31. I don't think they're scoring over 30 points on on or 31 points on uh on LSU's defense, especially with how rejuvenated this team apparently is coming out of the buy. I got two more. I got a moneyline parlay that is plus 272, five picks, Oregon, AM, Georgia, Duke, and Indiana. All five have to win. Plus 272, and then 10-point teaser, three teams, DYU plus 20, Georgia plus a half point, Southern Cal minus four. Can I interest you in any of those?

SPEAKER_02 59:10

I'm taking all of them. I ride. Love it.

unknown 59:13

Love it.

SPEAKER_01 59:15

Not on both eye, we don't.

SPEAKER_02 59:18

Wow, wow.

SPEAKER_01 59:19

Not anymore.

SPEAKER_02 59:21

Okay. All right. Well, hey, listen, appreciate you guys tuning in. Good luck this week against LSU.

SPEAKER_01 59:27

Thank you, sir. Good luck this week again, Sister Clemson.

SPEAKER_02 59:30

Thank you, sir. All right, guys. That's been real. See you next week. Peace, everybody.