A Volatile August

In episode 11 of Don’t Buy The Bull, Cassandra Toroian delves into the current state of the market amidst political and economic turbulence. She emphasizes the importance of staying informed and engaged with current events to make sound investment decisions. 

Tune in to learn how to navigate market fluctuations and make informed choices for your investments.

TIMESTAMPS

[00:02:42] Market volatility and caution.

[00:08:34] Labor force impact of immigrants.

[00:12:46] Impact of Tax Cuts reversal.

[00:17:01] Fact-checking election statistics.

QUOTES

• “Let your eyes be your guide right now in terms of who is really winning in this election. really do your homework when you hear statistics being thrown out there or facts or things that are being portrayed as facts, go look it up for yourself. Go directly to the source information, not a newspaper, but the actual source of the information.”
• “So what we have is a situation where the volatility is going to continue until we have an election. And when they keep talking about, and I don't see personally how this is even a rational possibility based on what my eyes tell me and what the numbers tell me historically.”

SOCIAL MEDIA LINKS

Cassandra Toroian

Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/CassandraToroian/

Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/CassandraToroian1/

LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/cassandra-toroian/

WEBSITE

Cassandra Toroian: https://cassandratoroian.net/

FirstHand Research and Consulting LLC: https://1sthandresearch.com/

Don’t Buy The Bull: https://dontbuythebull.io/

Transcript

Welcome to Don't Buy the Bull, a podcast dedicated to unmasking the truth behind how so-called trusted Wall Street institutions and the American government really work. I'm your host, Cassandra Torian. You can call me Cass. I'm a seasoned former equity analyst, investment manager and former Wall Street Journal All-Star analyst. And I'm passionate about helping people think for themselves by teaching them about things like investing, which may not be their forte. My only goal is to help you figure out how to use your own discernment and instinct to make good investment decisions for yourself. I have no skin in the game. And to do what I'd like to help you do, we have to look at the world around us, since the stock market does not operate in the bubble. So let's dive in. OK, hey, everybody, it's Cassandra Torian with Don't Buy the Bull. It is the first week of August and it's hot and we're supposed to get a hurricane or some sort of tropical storm coming up the East Coast here. That'll be happening all week. So we've got just a lot going on, a lot going on. And that's what I wanted to talk about, because the markets are reacting to a lot. And that's what they should be doing because markets hate volatility. We've got a lot going on, both politically, economically. And so even though it's August and this is normally when the market is quiet because folks go away for vacation with their families, usually in August on Wall Street, a lot of them, This is not a set and forget it kind of August. I've been through several of those kind of Augusts. And well, you just got to do what you got to do. Doesn't mean you run and hide. It means you've got to really just watch what's going on and be careful, careful about dipping back in, but not panicking because it's not worth panicking. So let's start with the list of things going on right now, because I think that's probably the best way to start. So we have had a really strong market year to date, right? I mean, markets been up about 20 some percent up until the last couple of weeks. So we've had a huge run up in NASDAQ, of course, caused by this what they call magnificent seven. Everybody and their mother wanting to pile into NVIDIA. We've been cautioning, saying this looks a little bit like some sort of dot com bubble. So not surprised to see some of the air coming out. It's just overbought. So that's number one. Number two, we've got a bunch of labor numbers coming out, a bunch of economic numbers, and they're sending mixed signals, right? They're sending mixed signals. They were expecting some strong employment numbers last week. They came in fairly weak on Friday. Markets sold off. And basically that's leading to more speculation that we're going into recession. Now, recessions are really hard to define until after the fact, because you really need to look at the growth in GDP or lack of growth. in hindsight, over a couple of quarters to see if, in fact, it went negative and stayed in that negative growth for a couple of quarters. So we can't say that definitively yet that we're truly in a recession or going into one. But I think a lot of people feel like we are in one because, jeez, the cost of goods for us folk have not decreased. Gas is expensive. Food is expensive. Housing is expensive. Utilities are expensive. So at some point, we all are going to run out of the extra funds for the extra consumer goods out there. And that means some belt tightening. I think we're kind of at that point. We're in earnings season. We're hearing from a number of companies who are refreshing their second half outlooks in a downward way, talking about the weakness in the consumer. So that's a huge signal. So that, coupled with the weak employment numbers last week, obviously is signaling to some boop, boop, boop, boop, recession, recession. and they're starting to pull money off the table and just kind of hang back and see what direction they want to go going. Nothing wrong with garnering some cash, being a little patient, and then finding an entry point to get into some really, really good stocks that have just gotten really beat up. So The next thing I want to talk about is this concept of a soft landing or a hard landing. If in fact we are in recession or about to head into one, then we have to figure out, well, is it going to be a hard landing, mean a really deep, long recession, kind of like we had back in 2008, 2009, uh, or, Is it going to be very light, meaning it's more of, let's say, corporate recession versus the average consumer or, you know, the workforce really shrinking type of recession? I think there's consensus out there as of right now that it's probably more in the soft landing category, and that's because we do have a shrinking labor supply of American citizens because many are retiring and we have a smaller population in the younger generations coming up through the ranks. So we do have some pressure there. However, however, we've got, Thanks to this current administration and our border czar slash VP Kamala Harris, we have what over 10 million immigrants that have come here illegally in the last couple of years. So guess what? We have a net net in labor force, whether they're here legally or not. They're not American citizens. They're immigrants and they are adding to the labor force. So maybe that's good. Maybe that's bad. I suspect that the kinds of jobs where there are a lot of openings are more of skilled labor and tech. So I'm not sure really how much of that is going to help out, you know, I don't know what kind of skill sets they're coming with, although I'm fairly certain it's probably not a huge percentage of them that are coming with, let's call it tech skills, which is really what we need a lot of right now. The other thing that's really causing a rout, I was shocked a couple weeks ago when President Trump got hit by a bullet and almost killed that the market did not tank because it should have, in my mind, been a realization that, oh, my God, if this guy gets taken out, frankly, we're screwed. We're really screwed because the other folks that are there now clearly are not fit to run. not fit to serve, not fit to be in these offices on so many levels. So what we have is a situation where the volatility is going to continue until we have an election. And when they keep talking about and I don't see personally how this is even a rational possibility based on what my eyes tell me and what the numbers tell me historically. But they keep saying now that Kamala Harris is basically running neck and neck in the polls with Donald Trump. I cannot see how. that is even a possibility given this woman had never won a primary election, let alone made it through the entire primary season. She was one of the lowest, she received some of the lowest votes in any of the primaries she was in. So this notion that she's running neck and neck, I think, For those people that believe it, it's causing some fright, I think, in the market. People saying, you know what? Got to start taking some money off the table. Got to start taking some gains. Got to start going into more gold. Got to start positioning for that. If if, in fact, this woman were to become president, that we've got. Another four years of really bad policies, both domestically and internationally. I don't really think how we can make it four years through that. So anyway, they may think those that are talking about her being neck and neck is helping them in some way, but it's actually hurting hurting us all because we all have 401ks, we all have money in the stock market for the most part. And so be prepared, your portfolio is going to suffer big time. The other reason why it's going to suffer is, as of right now, if in fact she were to win, that's the end of the tax cuts that were given to Americans under Donald Trump. And that's going to have a significant impact on everyone because that deduction that was raised for the average person that was not able to itemize their deductions, they got the standard deduction. Well, under Donald Trump, they doubled the standard deduction. So I know a lot of folks that really benefited big time from that, a lot of retired folks. And so if that gets reversed, that means you're going to be paying more taxes, not getting a refund check. I know a lot of folks that got refund checks because of his his tax cuts. And I'm not talking high tax brackets here. So it's a big deal. It's a big deal. This is not rich people's issues. This is the average American. We're talking about a standard deduction. And last but not least, we've got volatility because we may be entering literally World War III. So think about that. We've got things heating up in In Israel, these poor folks are getting hit from all sides. It seems like Hezbollah is involved and, you know, all of these these different factions. Iran is really angry because I guess we took out some senior leaders of theirs that they are going to now claim revenge for that. And so we're stepping closer to a global war issue, particularly when you throw in China and the South China Seas and what they're doing there with Taiwan, South Korea, and then, of course, you have Russia and the Ukraine. And oh, let's not forget that we had Russian and Chinese, I believe it was military aircraft flying around the Alaskan area last week as well. Yeah, just to kind of test the waters and see if our current administration would notice, let alone do anything about it, which of course they did. So all that to say is don't panic, but there's a lot going on. And until we get real clarity, you're gonna see this volatility. I was shocked to see that the volatility index, which is the VIX, V-I-X index today had spiked this morning over 70. I have not seen that since COVID 2020 when the market tanked. And before that, I had not seen that since 2008 when the markets were nosediving. They seem to have for the day subsided a bit. But just keep in mind, there's money to be made in volatility. It's a great entry point sometimes. but you don't need to step in and be the first one in line because you don't want to catch a falling knife. So just wait a little bit, get those stocks, your research ready, figure out those names you've been itching to buy, but just felt like, oh, I just missed the boat and maybe haven't because now it's going to be another time for you to have a second bite at the apple. So patience is a virtue. Use some right now. Keep your wits. And hey, if you want to have access to these kinds of little sort of video snippets that aren't necessarily a podcast like this one is for Don't Buy the Bull. I am doing some snippets every now and then when I see things out there that maybe I take a minute or two to explain. If you want access to that, go to don'tbuythebull.io, don'tbuythebull.io, and just put your email address in there and we'll add you to our email list for when we have an alert come out for any new and more timely commentary on what the heck is going on. And one more thing, do not buy the bull. Do not buy the bull. Let your eyes be your guide right now in terms of who is really winning in this election. really do your homework when you hear statistics being thrown out there or facts or things that are being portrayed as facts, go look it up for yourself. Go directly to the source information, not a newspaper, but the actual source of the information. And you will see for yourself what the real numbers show. So with that, have a great rest of the day and stay cool out there. It's going to be a warm and wet week, I suppose. So until next time, ciao. Thanks so much for tuning into this episode. I really do appreciate it. Be sure to subscribe to the show, and that way you'll get updates about new episodes. Or if you really liked it, maybe you can share it to other folks you know. That I would really appreciate. So until next time, this is your reminder not to buy the bull. Ciao.

Cassandra Toroian