How Will Canada Be Affected by the Iran War?

🇨🇦🌍 How Will Canada be Affected by the Iran War? | Global Intelligence Weekly Wrap-Up

This week on Global Intelligence Weekly Wrap-Up, Neil Bisson — retired CSIS Intelligence Officer and Director of the Global Intelligence Knowledge Network — examines the growing ripple effects of the escalating conflict involving Iran, Israel, and the United States.

As military strikes and retaliation unfold across the Middle East, intelligence agencies and security officials around the world are asking an important question:
How far beyond the battlefield could this conflict spread?

In this episode, Neil explores how modern conflicts rarely stay confined to one region. Instead, they expand across covert intelligence networks, cyber operations, proxy groups, and geopolitical alliances — often affecting countries thousands of kilometres away from the original fighting.

Drawing on open-source reporting and real-world intelligence experience, this week’s episode looks at what Canadians should understand about the potential security, cyber, and geopolitical implications of the Iran conflict.

From alleged Iranian sleeper cells operating in the Gulf, to warnings from Europol about terrorism risks in Western countries, to Canadian cybersecurity alerts about potential Iranian cyber retaliation — this episode connects the dots between events overseas and Canada’s own national security environment. 
2026 03 06 Global Intelligence …
🎧 Before you press play, consider these questions:

❓ Could Iranian sleeper cells or proxy networks operate outside the Middle East — including in Western countries?
❓ How could tensions between Iran, Israel, and the United States trigger cyber attacks against Western infrastructure?
❓ Why are European law enforcement agencies warning about terrorism and extremist activity connected to the conflict?
❓ Could a wider war with Iran divert intelligence and military resources away from counter-terrorism operations?
❓ Are Canadian critical infrastructure operators prepared for potential cyber retaliation from Iranian state-linked actors?
❓ What does the growing intelligence cooperation between Russia and Iran reveal about the emerging alignment between Western adversaries?

All of these questions are explored through intelligence tradecraft, geopolitical analysis, and real-world national security experience.
If you want to better understand how global conflicts can affect Canada’s security environment, this episode is for you.

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Transcript

2026 03 06 Global Intelligence Weekly Wrap Up

INTRO:

This week, Neil Bisson — retired CSIS intelligence officer and Director of the Global Intelligence Knowledge Network — takes a deep dive into the growing ripple effects of the escalating conflict between Iran, Israel, and the United States.

As military strikes and retaliation continue across the Middle East, intelligence agencies and security officials around the world are increasingly asking the same question: how far beyond the battlefield could this conflict spread?

In this episode of the Global Intelligence Weekly Wrap Up, Neil examines how Iranian sleeper cells and proxy networks may already be positioned outside the region, including recent arrests linked to the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps in Qatar.

European law enforcement authorities are warning that the conflict could trigger terrorism, cyber-attacks, and influence operations across Western countries — raising concerns about how geopolitical tensions overseas may translate into security risks closer to home.

Neil also explores how a wider confrontation with Iran could strain counter-terrorism resources, potentially creating openings for extremist groups that intelligence agencies have spent years trying to contain.

And importantly for Canadians, the episode looks at warnings from cybersecurity officials that Iranian cyber actors may attempt retaliatory attacks against Western infrastructure — including systems here in Canada that are closely interconnected with those of the United States.

Taken together, these developments highlight a key intelligence reality: modern conflicts rarely remain confined to a single region. Instead, they unfold simultaneously across military, cyber, intelligence, and political domains.

As the confrontation involving Iran continues to evolve, Neil breaks down what Canadians should understand about the risks, the warning signs, and what we may need to prepare for in the weeks ahead.

Let’s get started.

MUSIC

Hello and welcome back to the Global Intelligence Weekly Wrap Up. 

I’m your host, Neil Bisson, a retired intelligence officer with Canadian Security Intelligence Service and the Director of the Global Intelligence Knowledge Network. 

Every week, I take news articles from around the world on foreign interference, national security, espionage and terrorism and provide you with the insights, analysis and intelligence to give you a better understanding of how the shadowy world of intelligence has an effect on your career, your sovereignty and your safety. 

With the recent US and Israeli attacks on Iran, this week’s episode is going to focus on the ripple effects of that conflict, and what we should know to prepare for the weeks or possibly months ahead. 

Specifically, how and where Iran might strike back against surrounding countries, western allies and potentially Canada.  

As we all hold our collective breath in anticipation of what could happen next, I break down what is happening and how you can try and be aware and prepare for what’s coming.  

MUSIC

For our first story we start in Qatar where an Al Jazeera news article discusses the arrest of two cells that were operating for Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps or the IRGC. 

Qatari authorities say the suspects were tasked with espionage and sabotage, at a moment when the regional security environment is highly volatile following the start of joint U.S.–Israeli strikes on Iran and Iran’s retaliatory attacks across the Gulf.

According to the Qatar News Agency or the QNA, ten suspects were arrested across the two cells. 

Seven were tasked with spying on “vital and military facilities” in Qatar, while three were directed with carrying out sabotage operations. 

QNA reported that, during interrogation, the suspects admitted affiliation with the IRGC and said they had been tasked with espionage and sabotage missions. 

Authorities also reported finding locations and coordinates of sensitive facilities, plus communications devices and technological equipment in the suspects’ possession.

The article situates the arrests inside a broader escalation: Qatar’s Ministry of Defence said it detected the launch of three cruise missiles, 101 ballistic missiles, and 39 drones toward its airspace since Saturday, which it said were intercepted. 

Qatar’s Foreign Ministry spokesperson Majed al-Ansari is quoted describing Qatar as surprised by the attacks and stating there were attempts to attack Hamad International Airport that were prevented.

From an intelligence perspective, the allegation of two cells with distinct tasking — surveillance and reconnaissance on one side and sabotage on the other — matches a familiar operational logic. 

One component gathers target intelligence and situational awareness; the other component is positioned to be operational if activated. 

Even if no sabotage occurs, the existence of pre-positioned networks increases coercive leverage and crisis options.

Sleeper-cell allegations highlight a recurring feature of modern state conflict: while missiles and drones are visible, covert networks operate in parallel to cause confusion, misdirection and further destruction. 

If security services believe these networks can be activated and become operational, dismantling them becomes urgent because the threshold for activation can drop quickly during escalating state-to-state confrontation.

This story is a reminder that in high-tension regional conflicts, states and security services are not only watching the battlefield — they are racing to detect and disrupt covert infrastructure that could enable sabotage, intimidation, or strategic disruption behind the scenes.

The warning for Canada here is this. 

The potential for sleeper cells of Iranian agents or proxies becoming activated in Canada becomes increasingly likely as this conflict continues. 

Either as way to deter Canada from assisting the US and Israel, or to send a message to the US that Iranian sleeper cells in Canada can be activated against the US. 

MUSIC

We head to Europe for the next segment where European law enforcement authorities are warning that the escalating conflict involving Iran could increase the risk of terrorism, cyber-attacks, and extremist activity across Western countries. 

The warning comes from Europol, which says geopolitical tensions in the Middle East often trigger security repercussions far beyond the immediate conflict zone.

According to Europol officials, the confrontation involving Iran could motivate extremist groups and state-aligned actors to conduct retaliatory activity in Western countries. 

The agency warned that cyber-attacks against infrastructure and government networks may increase as pro-Iranian groups attempt to demonstrate support for Tehran’s position.

Officials also expressed concern that militant groups aligned with Iran’s regional network — often referred to as the “Axis of Resistance” — could attempt destabilizing actions abroad.

These organizations include armed groups operating in countries such as Lebanon, Iraq, and Yemen.

Authorities say the conflict is also creating opportunities for cyber criminals and influence operations. 

Online misinformation campaigns and politically motivated hacking activity often intensify during periods of international conflict, complicating efforts to distinguish between state-directed cyber operations and independent hacktivist activity.

Iran maintains relationships with a network of proxy organizations across the Middle East that have historically been used to exert influence beyond Iran’s borders. 

These groups have been involved in conflicts across the region and have occasionally been linked to operations targeting Western interests.

At the same time, pro-Iranian hacktivist groups have become increasingly active online. 

These groups frequently claim responsibility for disruptive cyber-attacks such as website defacements, denial-of-service campaigns, and data leaks targeting countries perceived as hostile to Iran.

Security officials say that geopolitical crises often produce a surge of activity across multiple domains simultaneously. 

Military operations may take place on the battlefield while cyber operations, propaganda campaigns, and proxy activity unfold in parallel.

With large Lebanese, Iranian and Israeli communities in Canada, the potential for conflict between these groups and aggression to them increases. 

The warning from Europol illustrates how regional conflicts can generate security risks far beyond the immediate war zone. 

As tensions involving Iran continue to escalate, governments and security agencies across Western countries are increasing monitoring for signs of terrorism, cyber-attacks, and influence operations linked to the crisis.

Groups from these separate diaspora and immigration communities will likely place pressure on municipal, provincial, regional and federal governments to act in ways that are most reflective of their concerns surrounding the conflict. 

This may result in a number of clashing protests that could result in violence. 

Canadian authorities and intelligence should be focussing on monitoring any individuals or groups who may use this conflict as an excuse to justify acts of violence targeting opposing groups or to influence governmental decisions.  

MUSIC

In our next segment we discuss a CBC News article which examines how the escalating conflict between the United States and Iran could affect American national security priorities, particularly counter-terrorism operations. 

The article looks at warnings from U.S. officials and analysts that a large-scale war with Iran could divert military and intelligence resources away from monitoring terrorist groups.

The situation follows U.S. military strikes on Iranian targets, conducted in coordination with Israel, which significantly escalated tensions in the Middle East.

The strikes targeted Iranian military infrastructure linked to missile and nuclear programs. 

In response, Iran has launched retaliatory missile and drone attacks across the region, raising concerns that the confrontation could expand into a wider regional conflict.

U.S. defence and intelligence officials warn that if the conflict grows, it may require the United States to shift substantial military and intelligence assets toward the Middle East. 

Naval forces, intelligence surveillance platforms, analysts, and special operations units would likely be redirected to track Iranian military activity and support allied forces.

The concern raised in the article is that this shift could weaken the United States’ ability to maintain pressure on terrorist organizations operating in other regions.

For more than two decades, U.S. national security strategy has focused heavily on counter-terrorism operations against groups such as ISIS and al-Qaeda. 

Intelligence agencies and military forces have devoted extensive resources to tracking terrorist networks and disrupting plots.

At the same time, defence planning has increasingly shifted toward preparing for potential conflicts with state actors such as Iran, Russia, and China.

Security analysts note that large-scale conflicts between states often consume intelligence and military resources quickly. 

Surveillance aircraft, satellites, cyber capabilities, intelligence officers and analysts, much like munitions and armaments, are finite resources.

The developing confrontation between the United States and Iran highlights the complex challenge facing national security planners — balancing the demands of potential state-to-state conflict while ensuring that counter-terrorism operations remain strong enough to prevent new threats from emerging.

MUSIC

We look inward for our next segment where we discuss how Canadian cybersecurity officials are warning organizations across the country to prepare for the possibility of cyber retaliation linked to the escalating conflict between Iran, the United States, and Israel. 

The warning, of course, follows the launch of U.S. and Israeli military strikes against Iranian targets and growing concerns that Tehran could respond through cyber operations targeting Western infrastructure.

According to Canadian cybersecurity officials and government advisors, organizations that operate critical infrastructure — including energy systems, telecommunications networks, transportation infrastructure, and financial services — should review their cyber defenses and ensure that systems are hardened against potential intrusion attempts.

Iranian cyber actors have a documented history of conducting disruptive cyber operations against countries they perceive as hostile. 

Canada’s shared critical infrastructure with the United States is a clear indication that if an attack happens here, it could affect the US, increasing the likelihood that Canadian infrastructure interconnected to the US could be targeted. 

These operations often involve distributed denial-of-service attacks, network intrusions designed to steal information and attempts to disrupt public-facing digital services.

Security experts say that Iranian cyber groups frequently target poorly secured internet-connected systems. 

These can include remote access portals, operational technology systems connected to industrial control networks, and organizations that rely on outdated software or weak authentication practices.

Canadian authorities have emphasized that while there is no indication of an imminent attack, the heightened geopolitical tensions mean that organizations should assume the threat environment has changed and take precautionary steps to strengthen their cyber resilience.

Iran has spent more than a decade developing cyber capabilities that allow it to project influence and retaliation beyond the Middle East. 

Iranian cyber groups have previously targeted financial institutions, government agencies, and infrastructure operators in the United States, Israel, and other Western countries.

Unlike large-scale cyber operations conducted by countries such as Russia or China, Iranian operations often focus on disruptive or symbolic actions designed to send political messages or demonstrate the regime’s ability to retaliate against its adversaries.

Because many Western infrastructure systems rely on interconnected digital networks, cybersecurity officials warn that even organizations outside the immediate geopolitical conflict can become targets of opportunistic cyber activity.

Cybersecurity analysts note that cyber retaliation has become a common feature of modern geopolitical crises. 

When military tensions escalate, cyber actors aligned with state interests often launch operations intended to disrupt services, gather intelligence, or signal political defiance.

These operations can be carried out directly by state-sponsored groups or by loosely affiliated hacktivist networks that support a government’s geopolitical position.

The warning issued to Canadian infrastructure operators highlights how international conflicts increasingly extend into cyberspace. 

Even when the battlefield is thousands of kilometres away, Canadian organizations may still find themselves in the crosshairs of cyber actors seeking to retaliate against Western governments and their allies.

MUSIC

For our next segment we look at how previously identified threat vectors are under attack. 

Cyber operations are increasingly becoming part of the broader confrontation between Iran, the United States, and Israel. 

Security researchers report that hacking activity has intensified following the launch of U.S. and Israeli military strikes targeting Iranian facilities, demonstrating how modern conflicts often unfold simultaneously across physical and digital battlefields.

Cybersecurity analysts have observed an increase in hacking campaigns targeting Iranian digital infrastructure and government-related systems in the days following the strikes. 

Some operations have targeted Iranian websites and applications, while others have attempted to disrupt online services connected to Iranian government institutions.

At the same time, pro-Iranian cyber groups have reportedly increased their own online activity, including distributed denial-of-service attacks, website defacements, and attempts to disrupt digital platforms associated with Western governments or companies perceived as supporting Israel or the United States.

Cyber operations linked to geopolitical conflicts often involve a mixture of actors. 

Some groups operate directly under the direction of state intelligence services, while others function as loosely affiliated hacktivist collectives motivated by political or ideological alignment.

In many cases, these groups use relatively simple tactics — such as flooding websites with traffic or exploiting known vulnerabilities — to create disruption or send a symbolic message rather than achieve long-term strategic damage.

As previously mentioned, Iran has invested heavily in cyber capabilities over the past decade, building a network of cyber units associated with the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and other government institutions. 

These groups have previously been linked to cyber espionage campaigns, destructive malware attacks, and influence operations targeting Western governments and private sector organizations.

Cyber operations have become an increasingly common element of international conflicts because they allow states to retaliate quickly while maintaining a degree of plausible deniability.

Governments can benefit from disruptive activity carried out by sympathetic hacking groups without always claiming direct responsibility.

Security researchers note that cyber activity often spikes during periods of geopolitical tension because cyberspace provides a relatively low-risk environment for retaliation. 

Compared with conventional military strikes, cyber-attacks can be launched quickly, require fewer resources, and allow states to operate below the threshold of open warfare.

This makes cyber operations an attractive tool for governments seeking to demonstrate power, retaliate against adversaries, or influence public perception without triggering a direct military escalation.

The surge in cyber activity surrounding the Iran conflict illustrates how modern warfare now extends beyond traditional battlefields. 

As geopolitical tensions escalate, governments and organizations around the world are increasingly forced to monitor the digital domain for signs that a regional conflict could spill over into global cyber operations.

With this in mind our next segment will discuss the threat to Canada in this space. 

MUSIC

For our next segment we back to Canada, as Canada’s Communications Security Establishment, through the Canadian Centre for Cyber Security, has issued a cyber threat bulletin warning that Iran is very likely to use cyber operations as part of its response to the escalating military confrontation involving the United States and Israel. 

The bulletin provides an assessment of how Iranian cyber actors may attempt to retaliate against Western countries in cyberspace.

According to the Cyber Centre’s assessment, Iranian cyber threat actors could conduct a range of cyber activities in response to the conflict. 

These may include disruptive cyber operations targeting internet-connected infrastructure, cyber espionage campaigns aimed at gathering intelligence on Western governments and organizations, and online influence operations designed to shape public perception.

The bulletin warns that Iranian cyber groups have historically targeted organizations in countries they view as adversaries or supporters of Israel and the United States. 

These operations often focus on exploiting weak security practices, such as poorly secured remote-access systems or unpatched software vulnerabilities.

In addition to direct cyber intrusions, Iranian actors may also engage in cyber-enabled information operations. 

These campaigns can involve spreading propaganda, amplifying divisive narratives on social media, or attempting to undermine public confidence in government institutions.

Iran’s expanded cyber capabilities has resulted in developing a range of offensive tools that allow it to conduct cyber espionage, disruptive operations, and influence campaigns. 

Iranian cyber actors have previously targeted financial institutions, government agencies, academic organizations, and private companies in several Western countries.

Canadian authorities note a potential increase in cyberattacks during periods of geopolitical tension is likely. Especially, when states seek ways to retaliate against adversaries without escalating the already direct military confrontation.

Canadian Cybersecurity officials emphasize that Iran’s cyber operations will allow them to try and project a form of power globally even with their relatively limited resources. 

Because attacks can be launched remotely and attribution can be obfuscated, cyberspace will provide Iranian hacking groups and activist with a flexible tool for retaliation, intelligence collection, and strategic messaging.

Canada’s Cyber Centre’s bulletin highlights the evolving nature of this conflict, where the military confrontations are increasingly accompanied by cyber operations which target governments, infrastructure, and private sector organizations. 

For Canada, its allies, and western nations, the challenge is in ensuring that our digital defenses are strong enough to withstand cyber activity linked to international crises.

With that in mind we will see an increase in the requirements of government departments like CSE and CSIS to help stave off further attacks or minimalize the damage from them. 

Unfortunately, given Iran’s alignment with other countries who also participate in cyber espionage or cyber-attacks against Canada. Russia, China, North Korea, I’m looking at you. We may already have compromises that have not been identified and could be exploited. 

MUSIC

And just like that, we come to our last segment of the week, we look at new reporting that indicates Russia may be quietly assisting Iran as tensions in the Middle East escalate following U.S. and Israeli military strikes. 

According to U.S. officials, Moscow has been providing intelligence that could help Iran identify and potentially target American military assets operating in the region.

The development adds a new dimension to an already volatile conflict and highlights how global rivalries are increasingly intersecting across multiple theatres.

U.S. officials believe Russia has shared intelligence with Iran regarding the location and movement of American military forces, including warships, aircraft, and other assets operating in the Middle East. 

The intelligence reportedly comes from Russian surveillance capabilities, including satellite and signals intelligence, which could allow Iranian forces to more accurately track U.S. military activity.

This information could potentially help Iran plan missile or drone attacks against American targets. 

While officials say there is no definitive evidence that Russian intelligence directly enabled specific strikes, the type of data reportedly shared — such as location information for ships and aircraft — would have clear operational value for targeting purposes.

The alleged intelligence sharing comes as Iran has launched drones and missiles in response to U.S. and Israeli military operations, increasing the risk of a broader regional conflict. 

The growing coordination between Moscow and Tehran did not emerge overnight. 

Since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022, the two countries have steadily deepened their military cooperation.

Iran supplied Russia with large numbers of attack drones used against Ukrainian targets, while Russia has increasingly turned to Iran as a strategic partner in countering Western pressure. 

In recent years the relationship has expanded beyond weapons transfers to include intelligence cooperation, joint military exercises, and long-term security agreements.

From an intelligence perspective, this reflects a broader alignment among states that view the United States and its allies as strategic competitors. 

Rather than forming formal alliances like NATO, these countries increasingly cooperate through opportunistic intelligence sharing, technology transfers, and coordinated diplomatic positioning.

What makes this development particularly significant is the indirect nature of the support. Russia does not need to deploy forces to influence events in the Middle East. 

By simply providing intelligence, Moscow can shape the battlefield without firing a shot. 

This kind of intelligence cooperation is a classic example of what analysts often describe as “horizontal escalation.” 

Conflict in one region — in this case Ukraine — begins to spill into other theatres through proxy relationships, intelligence sharing, and strategic retaliation.

From Moscow’s perspective, assisting Iran may also serve as a way to impose costs on the United States for its continued military and intelligence support to Ukraine.

The reported intelligence cooperation between Russia and Iran underscores how interconnected today’s global conflicts have become. 

Events in Ukraine, the Middle East, and other regions are no longer isolated they are now part of a wider contest between major powers.

If confirmed, Russia’s intelligence support to Iran would represent a significant escalation in that competition — demonstrating how adversarial states can influence conflicts far beyond their immediate borders.

For Canada and other western allies, Russia’s intervention in this conflict could lead to a larger escalation of hostilities outside of the current zones of conflict. 

Well, that’s going to wrap things up for this week’s episode.

I want to thank the National Security Centre of Excellence for asking me to be a panelist at the Maple Sheild Conference earlier this week.

I attended this two-day event and was able to contribute on 3 separate panels discussing issues of national security, foreign interference and Transnational Criminal Organizations. 

I met some amazing individuals in government, private industry and academia.  

This event showcased how collaboration between these groups and individuals can help to ensure that Canada remains a safe and sovereign country.

Until next week. Stay curious, stay informed and stay safe. 

OUTRO: 

That wraps up this week’s Global Intelligence Weekly Wrap-Up.

Thank you for listening.

From the discovery of alleged Iranian sleeper cells in the Gulf, to warnings from European law enforcement about potential terrorism and cyber retaliation, to the growing concerns from Canadian cybersecurity officials about attacks on critical infrastructure, this week’s stories highlight how quickly a regional conflict can create ripple effects far beyond the battlefield.

Modern conflicts are rarely confined to a single front.

They unfold simultaneously through military operations, cyber activity, covert intelligence networks, proxy actors, and information campaigns — often targeting societies thousands of kilometres away from the original crisis.

For Canada and its allies, the challenge is understanding that even when the fighting happens elsewhere, the consequences can reach our infrastructure, our institutions, and our communities.

Producing the Global Intelligence Weekly Wrap-Up requires continuous monitoring of global reporting, intelligence assessments, and emerging national security trends to provide clear, fact-based analysis each week.

If you find value in this work, you’re encouraged to support the podcast by visiting Buzzsprout, where you can make a one-time or ongoing contribution. Your support helps sustain independent analysis and ensures the program can continue without interruption.

Don’t forget to subscribe, share the episode, and leave a review — it helps more listeners discover the show.

And as Neil always reminds us:

Stay curious, stay informed, and stay safe.

LINKS:

Segment 1) Qatar announces arrest of Iran’s IRGC sleeper cells

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/3/3/qatar-announces-arrest-of-iranian-irgc-sleeper-cells

Segment 2) Europol warns Iran conflict could trigger terrorism and cyber-attacks in Western countries

https://www.reuters.com/world/europol-warns-iran-crisis-raises-threat-terror-extremism-cyberattacks-2026-03-05/

Segment 3) U.S.–Iran war could strain counter-terrorism efforts and complicate government funding fight

https://www.cbc.ca/news/world/u-s-iran-war-counter-terrorism-government-shutdown-9.7113767

Segment 4) Canada warns critical infrastructure operators to prepare for Iranian cyber retaliation

https://globalnews.ca/news/11712814/canada-critical-infrastructure-iran-cyber-attack-risk/

Segment 5) Cyber operations escalate alongside U.S.–Israel strikes on Iran

https://www.reuters.com/business/media-telecom/hackers-hit-iranian-apps-websites-after-us-israeli-strikes-2026-03-01/

Segment 6) Russia aiding Iran targeting US forces
https://www.cnn.com/2026/03/06/politics/russia-aiding-iran-targeting