Monday Morning Cubs Show

Cubs-Padres Game 1 Debrief and Game 2 Blueprint

• Carl + Mahoney • Season 2 • Episode 55

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Two swings changed everything. Wrigley went from tight to electric when Seiya Suzuki tied it and Carson Kelly followed with another blast, and that jolt carried into a bullpen masterpiece—14 straight outs that turned a knife-edge game into a conviction win. We walk through what truly decided Game One: clean middle defense from Dansby and Nico, smarter sequencing that put mistake hunters in the right spots, and the quiet advantage of a deeper, steadier roster.

From there, we build the Game Two blueprint. We’re opening with Kittredge to neutralize the Padres’ righty-lefty top four and give Shota a softer on-ramp against the bottom of the order. Shota doesn’t need whiffs to win; he needs edges, deception, and early rhythm. Yesterday’s reads on Tatis and Machado—hyper‑aggressive, pull‑happy against challenge pitches—set up that plan perfectly if we control the first inning. On the other side, Dylan Cease brings explosive strikeout stuff with walk and homer volatility. The path is clear: starve the chase, foul off the fastball, and make him throw strikes. Cease cruises with big run support; without it, the pitch count spikes and the mistakes arrive.

We also revisit the calls that hit: Padres bullpen depth falls off after Mason Miller, Jerry Estrada has been sloppy, and Carson Kelly thrives when he can hunt. Add a defense‑first identity—Pete Crow‑Armstrong’s reads, Dansby’s game‑saving calm—and the Cubs’ formula sharpens: structure beats volatility in October. If we keep the zone discipline tight and the defense clean, the opener-to-Shota bridge can tilt the night our way quickly.

Roll with us as we map adjustments, matchups, and the mindset that travels from first pitch. If you’re feeling this playoff run, follow the show, leave a quick rating, and share this episode with a Cubs fan who needs a pregame plan. Your takes make this community; drop your score prediction and the one matchup that swings it.

Thanks for tuning in!

- Carl & Mahoney

SPEAKER_00:

And we're clear. Action. Welcome back to the Monday Morning Cub Show. This is Carl, just a quick solo special edition playoff episode. We're going to talk a little bit about game one. Gonna get our heads on straight for game two. With first pitch coming up here in a couple hours, want to thank everybody who tuned into the playoff preview show. We're gonna be much quicker here today. So let's keep it under 30 minutes. Let's talk a little bit about game one. I was there, I got some notes from the recap, some interesting observations. I've been doing my homework, continue to do my homework on the San Diego Padres. Um, and just a special edition doing it this morning. No Mahoney this time. I believe he'll be with us for the series recap, hopefully, which is tonight. So just a couple other things off the top, some announcements. If you guys get a chance, please review the show. I think I just on Spotify, all you can do is do a five-star. I don't think you can actually submit a written review on Apple. That'd be great if you guys review. Show's booming. Huge. It's exploding with each and every Chicago Cub postseason game. We're gonna be here down the stretch. Um, a couple other announcements. I wanted to do this yesterday. I said I would do a post-game show directly after game one. I ended up getting a last second ticket from my friend Leah at Yaksy's through her friend Dave, name dropping a little bit here, but I told him I'd give you guys shout-outs on the show. It's very nice to take me to the game. Went to Yaksi's with the folks from Thirsty Vicero, you better believe there's an ad read coming on those guys later. But went down to Yaksi's to drop off more cases because Yaksis had sold out. And so while I'm there having a play to wings, they just won Wing Fest. Leah looks at her friend Dave and she goes, You know my buddy Carl. He's trying to get to the game. Dave's going, I can't give these tickets away. I've asked two dozen people already. Friends are working, friends are traveling. Dave's a season ticket holder. We'll say he's 35 to 40. We're in the same sweet spot age range. You know, we're peers. And I'm going, what do we got on the face? You know, I'm counting out the 20s here, guys. I'm a straight shooter. I'm peeling 20s off. I'm looking Dave in the eyes. What do we got, Dave? And he's going, I can't, Carl, in good faith, good conscience. I've asked two dozen people to go to the game. Everybody said no. Tickets on the house, my friend. Now, what do you think I say to Dave there? Beers are on me. Just a couple. What do we have? Four or five beers, Dave? We had a great time. Now, the Wrigley atmosphere yesterday, if you had FOMO watching the game, I can say I don't know if it was that well deserved until Saya hit the home run. And again, we're just doing light announcements. The only reason I'm telling you guys this stuff is because I meant to say I wanted to do this after the game. Me and Dave had a good time. And then it's tough to leave Wrigley. You know, I like to sit around for a little bit. I like to walk around for a little bit. I like the traffic to marinate and then obviously decongest. So we get home late, no condition to do a show. Had a double cheeseburger from McDonald's. Thought to myself, we'll just squeeze it in this morning. I'll just make an honest note to the maniacs where we at now. At the time of recording, it's about 9.30 a.m. I'm just telling you guys, we're gonna be back right after today's game because I won't be in Wrigleyville. But I was yesterday and while on topic, just a couple observations. If you had FOMO watching, that should not have really gotten triggered until say it hit the home run. Then it was unbelievable. Until say it hit the home run. People were so nervous. Until say it hit the home run, there was a lot of tension and groaning, Piker Armstrong swing and miss. Fuck. A lot of moaning and groaning and kind of like, here we go again, bullshit. Which I didn't love. I told Dave that right away. We sit down and go, this is not how it was in 03. This isn't what it was like in 15, which were the you know different years with some magic, some juice in them. You know, 07-08, I was in college. I didn't go to those. Those were rocket. Manny Ramirez Manny Ramirez put just did absolute numbers on the uh crowd atmosphere at Wrigley when he hit the changeup off the ground out for a home run. Are we getting too specific here? Am I am I too far down the rabbit hole to start this solo show? My point is that I thought the atmosphere yesterday was mild and timid until Saya hit the home run. Now it was a tense game up until the point Padres were putting a ton of people on base. Say it hits the home run, people go nuts. Then obviously Carson Kelly's home run. So I I guess I can't even isolate Saya's home run because the two happen so closely together. So I'd say when we got the back-to-back home runs, and then obviously it gets turned upside down. So I would say going into game two, I would hope, a ma I would hope, I would imagine, I dearly hope, that the same spark and momentum that we had at the through the last couple innings in game one, it better be there from the start, from first pitch. Okay, a couple other announcements. I might have a little COVID. I woke up today, I thought to myself, this feels this feels tighter than normal. This this congestion, the scratch at the back of the throat, might have a little COVID. And so why is that important to you guys? It's not. But if somebody else, if someone has something, or if you know there's something going around, is it that season? Is it that time of the year? I think Mahoney had a little COVID last week, but I didn't see him. It's not like we squared up for a pizza. I didn't get a pizza smack. There's your pizza smack. Alright, last announcement. I'm very proud of the Cubs. Uh sitting through that game yesterday, the quality of the defense, the way the pitching staff rose to the occasion with runners in scoring position, um, you know, Saya being able to come back to the way he has with six Homers in the last five games. You know, Pete Crow Armstrong's first step in center field and just how tight and close those guys play. As tense as it was in the crowd, I mean, they really were like um extremely sharp. Extremely sharp defense up the middle from Nico and obviously from Dansby Swanson, who I have this for a note later, I'll just bring it up now. Here's my thirsty. This is brought to you by Thirsty Vaquero, the whole show. A Mexican-style soda, and a spicy take for you guys is to shut up about Dansby Swanson. He is so good in the field, he's so good, it's irreplaceable. There's nothing like Dansby Swanson. Just like there's nothing like a good Thirsty Vaquero, which if you haven't had yet, I'm telling you, it's so good. It sold out of Yaksis in a week. Multiple cases, a truckload of cases gone in one week. So we had to make another delivery yesterday. It's a Mexican style soda. What is that? Think of like a seltzer. Think of a topo chico, think of a LaCroix. Think of something you're comfortable with that is very heavily carbonated, a lot of bubbles, very seltzy. Okay, it's less seltzy than that. It's got then there's a combo flavor profile here, and that's where the real juice comes into play. Is it watermelon? Is it a mango? Is it a lime? It's real juice. 10% of the formula is real juice, folks. So that flavor's there, there's a signature spicy finish, whether it's a jalapeno which pairs with the watermelon, a habanero with the mango, a chile, am I saying that correctly? A chile with the lime and the salt. And it's available on Amazon. They're all the official beverage partner of the Monday Morning Club Show, lineup previews and post-game videos, and it's really good stuff. Now, I don't have to tell you guys the sentimental side of how I'm real close friends with one of the founding partners, how it's three guys, lifelong beverage industry guys that I've known for 15, 20 years, going back to my first days on college campus, some real old close friends who've had a ton of success. They didn't need to start a beverage company. These guys have had a ton of success. They want to do the beverage company, they think this is a product. And a lot of people in the industry were like, if you guys, you guys should probably just do this on your own because it's that good of an idea. And then when you have it, you're like, holy shit, these they're not lying. What is this? This is Thirsty Vaquero, a non-alcoholic, Mexican style soda with a signature spicy finish. It is all bite, no rattle, my friends. Available on Amazon. I've linked below, I've posted about it before. Just be comfortable with the brand. We talk about a Thirsty Vaquero. And a spicy fucking take I have with my Thirsty Vaquero today. A watermelon sangria. A watermelon sandia. Sangria. Sandilla. Sandija. Um my spicy take is Danzby Swanson so unbelievably important that anybody who's actively criticizing him, disappointed with him, etc., you're an idiot. Now I tease and joke around about the fact we pay him$28 million, we hit him eighth. That's more a matter of circumstance. And the other thing is the$28 million, I'd say roughly 19 of that is for his play in the field, his leadership in the dugout, and the fact he's probably more important to the day-to-day functioning of this team than our manager, Craig Counsel. I think that's a fair thing to say. The day-to-day. Craig's going to be more important with the bullpen, obviously, but as far as position players are concerned, I don't think I don't even think it's up for debate. So let's not debate it. So let's instead do this. Um there's a couple top well, how about that? Um there's a couple topics I want to talk about. Obviously, just some quick technical recap stuff from game one. And then there's some stuff that we got right on the Monday morning Cubs show throughout the year leading into the playoffs. I just want to take a quick circle back on. There's seven topics, and this should feel good for maniacs. It should feel good for anybody who's closely followed the Cubs. And these are observations from game one. We have some other extended observations. This other stuff pops into my mind about like, here's what I think about the Padres now based on this. Uh, and then a whole bunch of notes on game two, particularly starter Dylan Sees. Let's see if we can do this for the next 20 minutes. Let's see if we keep the show under 30. You know, I'm a long-winded guy, I got a lot of passionate things to say about the Chicago Cubs because there's a lot of passionate feelings inside of me. Um, and a lot of this stuff came to the surface yesterday, being there in the crowd with Dave, having an IPA, having a kosher steak sandwich, which you can get behind home plate at the 200 level, never had that before. Having a great time at the ballpark, and we're very lucky that we beat Nick Pavetta yesterday. Nine strikeouts and five innings. Now he did give up back-to-back home runs, but he is so filthy. He has so much good glove side action that it was hard not to sit there the first three, four innings when I talked about the crowd. I mean, Pivetta is a huge presence on the mound. This guy's absolutely gigantic. And the it's not just swinging and missing, or I should say it's not just dominating and striking people out. There's a whole bunch of ways you can get to a strikeout. He's getting there, just it's all swing and miss. It's not like foul ball, foul ball, caught you looking. It's like here's 97 with eight inches of glove side run movement, I should say. Quick inside baseball thing. When run usually means arm side, run usually means two seam. Run usually means it's running. If it goes glove side, so I I misspoke there, and I want to take the opportunity to educate people on a technical baseball term. If someone says the fastball runs, it means it moves from the arm side in on a right-handed hitter, from a righty in on a righty. What Pavetta has is cut. Cut is when it moves away from a right-hander, cuts away, runs in. That's a good thing to remember. Cutaway, run in. So I misspoke, but just opportunity to educate here. Pavetta's cut, natural, his movement, the same stuff Cade Horton has, was suffocating. I can't say enough good things about Say Suzuki setting the tone because when he brings the crowd in with a home run, it's so loud, it was so obnoxious. There's no doubt about it. That Pavetta makes a mistake leaving a pitch up over the middle of the plate. And this goes into the next segment when I'm talking about is things we've gotten right on the Monday Morning Cub Show. We've talked a lot about Carson Kelly. Is he a four-hitter? And I've said repeatedly, I'd like to see him more comfortably in the six-hole, where it's more of a you can just hunt mistakes. And we've talked about this on the Monday Morning Cub Show. So we should be familiar with the fact that like the golden opportunity to get a mistake, Wrigley Fields turned upside down. Say Suzuki just ties the game. And the way the lineup's constructed, you want to bitch about Ian Happ, bitch your socks off. Go right ahead. I think he's been our best player down the last two months consistently. And I think him hitting third, we don't know we get from Kyle Tucker four. That means Suzuki can hit five. The benefit of that yesterday is in the fifth inning, you have say Suzuki in a meaningful, nobody out situation against Pavetta. To do what? To drive the ball. And he hits his six homer in five games, which rattles Pavetta. So here's here's our first thing that we've gotten right about the Monday morning Cub show. And that's Carson Kelly Hammers mistakes. Hammers them. And it was categorically the difference maker yesterday. It's nice what we did in the eighth inning to get against Jerry Estrada, which is the second thing we got right. Because if you listen to the playoff thing, the playoff preview show, I said their bullpen is top heavy. Mason Miller's very good. We got that right, obviously. You saw him. 13 pitches, three strikeouts. Crazy good stuff. But they're weak afterwards. And I told you guys, the Padres community, despite if you look at Jerry Estrada's numbers, and I'm sure the broadcast was blowing this guy when he came in the eighth inning. Big strikeout, you know, strikes out 13 per nine, whatever the fuck it is. He's been sloppy lately. He was sloppy lately. That was a difference. Secondary difference. So we got that right. We got Jerry Estrada being shit right. We got Carson Kelly smashing mistakes correctly. Um we got our but we we got this right. How about this? Our bullpen's good plenty good. Our bullpen's plenty good. Four and two-thirds perfect. You know, we've talked about this down the stretch with the Cubs bullpen. Is it good enough for October? Ball or strike. We said that's a strike outside corner. We didn't say it was a ball. We've never called that a ball. When they added Kittrich, I said that was perfect. Now Kittrich is an opener today. We'll talk about that. Kittrich yesterday looked superb. The bullpen yesterday, superb. Palencia was dialed. I love him at 99. Hate him at 102. We're right about say Suzuki being back in red hot. We're right about that, folks. We're right about the bullpen being good enough. Bullpen 4 and 2 thirds scoreless yesterday. I hope that's good enough for people. I hope 14 straight outs. I hope that's good enough. Matt Boyd comes out in the fifth. Quick hook from Craig Council. I hope 14 straight outs from the bullpen is good enough for people to at least take a deep breath. And shut up. Shut up. Stop complaining. Stop complaining. We don't have a Rollis Chapman. Whatever. We have Kittrich. We have Taylor Rogers. We got Drew Pomerance who is who is hitting golf balls this time last year and making plans for his wife to probably travel Western Europe, I would guess. Monaco, lovely. I think Pomerans was trying to leave the country extended period of time for a vacation, backpack through Europe with his old lady, leave the kids with the au pair. He was that deep into retirement, is my point. No, he's actually out there yesterday working just a real clean, just getting his way through the 6-7-8. Which we ham we nailed the Padres lineup perfectly in the playoff preview. We did get Luis Raz playing first base wrong. I did think Ryan O'Haren would be there instead of DH. So we'll see if they stick with that today. But we just we're getting stuff right. We got we're getting stuff right. I know Kate Horton's out. I know we that sucks. We said he'd be the best. We said he would pitch game one. We were wrong. He's out. But we were right. Bopen's good enough. Padres Bopen holes in it. Jerry Strata looked not great at all. After Mason Miller and before Roberto Suarez. Before Mason Miller. Before Suarez. I mean Wandy Peralta? Okay. You saw Wandy Peralta. I thought, no, you have to be Wandy Peralta. That's serious. That's serious stuff from them. So did we say Nico Horner complete baseball player? Do we get cred do the maniacs, do we want to take credit for how good Nico Horner is and how we We have talked about how good he is and complete he is. Maybe we should have done a better job. Maybe the way I glaze Dan's B. Swanson in mercilessly blow him. Proverbially? I mean figuratively. How about that? Figuratively, I've deep throated Dansby Swanson at an alarming rate. Up for an award, I should. Seriously. Guy on guy blowjob of the year. Carl on Dansby Swanson. That's how I've just loved him. I have always loved Dansby Swanson. Should I have directed a lot of that more towards Nico Horner? Is Nico Horner more deserving? I'm pantomiming the blowjob technique I've been giving Dansby this year right now. And I'm thinking to myself, does Nico get one of these instead? Do they both get them? Is that too much? Does that make sense? That's a question. Alright, last thing, hey, last thing we got right, Matt Boyd be a great matchup against the Padres. He did put guys on. Jackson Merrill's a good player. You know, that was the lollipop double. Uh makes a mistake to Xander Bogartts. But overall, I thought he would be a great matchup. And I thought the thing he did well against Tatisse and Machado is kind of inherent to Matt Boyd's presence, which is those guys want to hammer him. They see 93, they're like, fucking hey, time to tee off. And the perfect situation for Matt Boyd against a right-handed hitter is when they're very aggressive. Bogart's not so much. And we talked about this in the playoff preview. I'm sorry to go back and just continuously pat myself on the back. But Xander Bogartts, his chase is fucking quality. He does not expand the zone. His discipline is still there. All the metrics are still there for Xander Bogartts. The reason he's just been major league average this year is he cannot get the barrel on the ball. He cannot get to the sweet spot. He just can't back. So his exit velocity is down, even though the launch angle's there. His hard hit rate is plummeted. He just hasn't been getting to the sweet spot on his barrel. And honestly, that's a give this guy torpedo bat or something. But more importantly, as we were talking about in the playoff preview and as he pertains to a matchup with Matt Boyd, the double that Bogart's hit that drove in Jackson Merrill was a solid balls up over the plate mistake. And Bogart's had seen a couple pitches. The reason Boyd matches up well, more with Machado and Tatis in relative relative to righties, because I'm calling out Bogarts to say Bogart's actually a pretty good matchup, because he's going to watch some pitches, he'll foul it off. He'll take a look before he kind of gets locked in on alright, I need time to unload. Tatis was free swinging at shit. Oh my goodness. The ground ball he hit to Danzby Swanson was a two-seam fastball up and over the middle of the plate, where if he was more like, I'm going to take this guy to right center, that ball is that ball is on Sheffield. That's an opposite field home run outside of the park. I'm talking about Tatis Jr. second at bat yesterday, so these are just observations, and this will go into game two. I'm going to get to game two in a second. But just ideas and thoughts I have about the Padres. I'm watching Boyd against Tatis Jr. and Machado yesterday, and they just are using those guys' aggression against them, against themselves, to take bad swings. Machado was spinning out. Machado's trying to hit the ball as hard as he can. Now that's just the nature of these guys. That's why they're very good players, but they're aggressive players. And so Boyd was able to get them, I think, to get an advantage early and threw good pitches early and challenged them early and used their aggression against themselves. And I thought, you know, it was like weak contact. I didn't think at any point in time that those guys were, you know, was it threatened? Those are the two big, you know, those are the two big bad boys. And I'm just going back, Matt Boyd being a great matchup because he ate those lefties for lunch. You know, there's three lefties at towards the bottom of the order. Jacob Cronenworth, Ryan O'Hearn, Gavin Cheats. And to me, they're all very similar players. Like extremely similar players. Sure, they're different. They're name one's named Gavin. Um, but generally speaking, like, I think that Matt Boyd would be a good matchup against those guys he wasn't. A lot of this translates to Shota because Shoda can tap into much of the same psychology Boyd does from hitters. I think he's a real tough matchup lefty lefty, and I think that Shoda today is a very tough matchup for Machado and Tatis, more so from the standpoint of those guys are just naturally so aggressive. And that's really important because if Shoda's getting his stuff over the plate and he's commanding, you know, the sweeper and he can throw the fastball at the top of the zone. If he can pitch to the edges of the strike zone with command, um, I think the circumstances are in favor of Shoda. I know he's given up 12 homers in the last 34 innings, and we're kind of going down a rabbit hole. I didn't really intend here, but we're here. So just for purposes of today's game, if Shoda's commanding to the edges of the strike zone early, the fact the Padres are down one game, the fact that Tatis played poorly yesterday, Machado played poorly yesterday, those are the type of guys that are gonna get in the box today and then have just a little bit more. I want to get it going. They're gonna have just the psychology of the way those guys play the game, which is in favor of Shoda as a guy who pitches under barrels, who's not necessarily a swing and miss whiff guy. He's more of like a deceptively, I'm gonna try and throw your timing off, I'm gonna throw your visuals off. So this all kind of works well together that Boyd yesterday frustrated these guys. The bullpen frustrated the Padres and a lot of the way that Padres approached the game, not the bottom lefties we're talking about. Those guys will still be a little patient. Those guys still have their 330 to 370 OBPs, they've got the good spread between their batting average and their OBP. They'll be patient. But I do think for purposes of the top of the lineup, and in particular, Tatis and Machado, that works basically how Boyd pitched yesterday and what those guys saw from him. I do think it lends itself well to Shoda then coming in today, if he can tap into the outer strike zone or the edges of the strike zone. If he's over the heart of the play early, that's a problem because again, now we're just going to shift it back. Then that's huge advantage to the Padres because those guys are getting in the box looking to hammer it. So it really just comes down to Shoda today. It really, as crazy as this sounds, obviously, right? As crazy as I sound, it comes down to the starting pitcher, but that's specifically how I think it comes down to the starting pitcher in the psychology of the hitters at the top of the lineup for the Padres. So just other quick observations we have about the Cubs. This applies to general postseason going forward to this series, to the future, etc. Just how we feel about stuff. Daniel Palencia overall is a Swiss Army knife to come in and get very important outs as opposed to saving him for a run. I like that a lot more. I like putting him into games earlier like this. I I love seeing him in the fifth inning yesterday. I love seeing him in the fourth. I love seeing him in a situation to dominate with a lot of ball game left. And I thought it was freer and it was easier. So just observation about Palencia. Like, I saw a lot of 9,900 from him, which is much better than 102, 103. Because 99, 100, he can repeat. It's smooth, it's comfortable. It's more, it does feel easier for him to repeat it in the strike zone. And that's way more important than like, oh, gee whiz. Did you see the 103? Like, great, dude. It's a ball. Up and out. Those guys don't give a shit. Get it into the strategic parts of the strike zone. Number two observation obviously, I talked about this before. This was our thirsty of a carroll point here. Just Dansby Swanson in the field, the difference that guy makes having just an elite defender, multiple big moments. Runner on third base, less than two outs. Dansby Swanson's making a play, staring guys back to the bag. And the same can be said for Matt Shaw. He did a good job, and then Nico Horner made a bunch of routine play, made some good routine plays, I should say. Quality routine pressure plays. But Dansby Swanson setting the tone, being able to run into center field, catch that ball comfortably over his over his shoulder, get the ball back into the field. The bat's the bat. The nice thing is it squares up fastballs, and we got a big, big fastball pitcher on the mound today for the Padres. So just like be open-minded about Danzby Swanson. That's an observation now and forever. We were sensational, even runners on base yesterday. Early, that was a difference in the game. There were times runner second, runner third, early, pressure. Pivetta's very good. And getting out of those innings and feeling the momentum kind of put yourself in a position where we can get that home run, and then obviously say it does it. And then you flip it around, you deliver again with Carson Kelly right in that moment. Right when you get Pivetta rattled, it's like, here's a mistake. We got the perfect guy to hit a mistake. Again, four and two-thirds perfect from the bullpen. Set a tone. So when these guys show up to the bolt the field today, we have four guys that contributed to that that get to walk around with a little air, a little zest, a little life. Your starting pitching staff also, they get to walk around knowing man, bullpen picked 14 straight outs yesterday. Bullpen really has our back. So observation today, tomorrow, whatever, future. We question the bullpen. I mean, we start a series, you start the playoffs with a four and two-thirds perfect. People have the confidence. Guys are like, this is it. We're rolling. And to have a group of guys do it, it's not just like, but I'd almost prefer it the way it happened yesterday than Boyd throwing 95 pitches going into the seventh or the eighth inning. You know, maybe we only use Palency then. Maybe we only use Keller. No, like everyone gets a little bit of a taste there. And Boyd fresh, which is important. Like we he's probably gonna have to pick if we get out of the series. I would imagine Boyd pitches twice in an NLDS. We would want him to, right? If Kate Horton can't go till the CS. Did I say that? Am I getting too far ahead of myself? These are just observations. Last one, Kyle Tucker looked a little poopy. Kyle Tucker looked a little poopy, guys. Weak contact, foul ball left, weak contact, roll over right. Um, I don't know how mental it is. I the guy's weird. I guess he's weird. I don't know. The fact I don't know is alarming because I watch this as closely as I can, and all I've done is look for an answer on Kyle Tucker. And now that he's back, it's just like, what the fuck? And I've been trying to limit my F words, but I think that was a good one. So nice thing is he moved Saya down to five, and that just put so you can't be bitching about we won the game yesterday, we're out here tomorrow. You know, eyes are peeled on the lineup as it could drop here. And then just quick observations about Padres before I get into Dylan Sees for today. We have a better team. I talked about that. We did the roster wars, I scored it. We're better at first base, we're better at second base, we're better at shortstop, we're better in left field. We got a way better defender in center field, we're better at catcher, you know, we have better starting pitching depth, and we already beat their top pitcher. And I told you, the guys that are 2 3 4 5 for the Padres would have a hard time being our 1-2-3 in this series based on how they've performed throughout the season. We have a better team. The reason we won yesterday is because we're a better team. We didn't walk eyes, we made all the plays in the field, we literally did everything you could possibly ask for from a baseball to in that game. And I said three runs would win. I'm not trying to say I'm gonna start fucking Domus. It's just close tight end season base, like playoff baseball, end of the season baseball, I should say, you know, and the matchups are there in favor of the Cubs. And they have so many slightly above average lefties, that's like a death sentence. You have these guys with like 105 OPS pluses. You have these guys that are like 8% better than average. You Jacob Cronenworth, fine, milky, not really good at anything, you know? Like he's better than most second basemen at stuff kind of not that good in the field. He hits lefty, most second basemen don't. He can hit for a little bit of power. Most second basemen don't. He's bull he's below it. I'm not trying to curse, I'm just saying when I look at the team, hey, watch game one as I'm thinking about game two. Ryan O'Hearn I liked. I liked his approach. I got to I was nice to see him in person, his presence, how these guys take, you know, how how is he taking his at bat? And I loved his approach early, lefty on lefty, to look to the left side of the field, which is probably why he's hitting close to 285. Now I think it's weird a guy like his size would hit 285 with a f with an 800 OPS, which then squares his slug around 425, 430. He's a big guy, but he's more approach-based. He's not trying to swing out of his shoes. Gavin Sheets is swinging out of his shoes. Gavin Sheets has no approach. Ryan Hearn is all approach. And Jacob Cronenworth is somewhere in between. And none of the three of those guys are particularly very good. So. And neither is Luis or Ice. And I'm not doing this to talk shit about the Padres. I'm doing this and saying this and putting these thoughts out there under the pretense of we match up against this team, we're playing this team. How do we square up against them? And I'm looking at it going, well, I mean, we're way better at second base. We're way better at left field. We're way better at DH. We're way better in right field. Not right field, am I talking about? At Tatis Jr.'s first ballot Hall of Famer. But the positions we're better than them at, we're way better than them. So all right, game two. We're using an opener today. Here's why. And it has a lot to do with the Milky Lefties I just talked about. The Padres are going to go one, two, three, four, righty, lefty, righty, lefty. They're going to go Tatis leadoff. They're going to go rise two. They're going to go Machado three. They're going to go Jackson Merrill four. And so you we just have to get through one, two, three, four as much as possible to start this game. And a lot of that has to do with Dylan Case on the mound opposite him. So there's a bunch of considerations into why would we use Kittridge over Shota? Shota's never done this. I don't think Shota's ever pitched in the second inning. So when you're using an opener, you're going to change the routine a little bit. But be honest, Shoda's been trash his last 34 innings, 12 home runs surrendered. Last six, seven starts, he's been meat. He's given up two, three, two, one, two, three. Just giving up so many home runs. So, as we prepare, you know, for game two, knowing Shoda lefty, like that could be a situation, we're just giving him a different environment for his to get settled. And maybe this works. I know Kittridge is a better option in the first inning than Shoda. For the way the Padres lineup is. And even though I spent all that time on how Shoda could match up well, this side if what I understand to be true, Tatis is going to be ready to fucking hit the first ball as hard as he possibly can to set a tone. And I know Machado will be the same way. So if Kittridge is out there early, commands it. Now we're we're in the dugout quick. Kittridge is in the dugout quick. Cubs are in the dugout. It's bottom one. Dylan Ces is on the mound. Now Shoda then presumably would take the mound. And the first batter he would face would either be, you know, hopefully, Jack Tamarill, who's the cleanup hitter, or the five. And then again, six, seven, eight, nine of the Padres. If that's where Shoda can get comfortable, that's so great. Third inning, Shoda goes out there, he sees Gavin Sheets, Freddie Furman, two quick outs, flip it over, two quick outs into seeing Tatis Jr. in the third inning, that'd be great. I mean, that's literally a perfect scenario here where he settled in, he's comfortable, and now we got to talk about Dylan Sees. So Dylan Sees, big fly ball pitcher, because if we can get to him early, if we can get to Dylan Sees early, Shoda settles in, and there's a statistic I love, and that's pitching with run support. When Dylan Sees gets six plus runs of support, his ERA is 3.2. He cruises, he's rolling, he's very comfortable when he has run support. In all other situations, less than six runs of support, six or more, that's 103 innings. So the guy's throwing 160-something innings. 65 of these innings, he has six plus runs of support, 3.2 RA. 103 innings. Anything less than six or more runs of support, his ERA is 5.4. That's that pressure tight. When the team, when the opposition, the opposing batter, is tight and is trying to get on base and really work a situation against Dylan Sees, then the flaws start to expose from Dylan Sees because he's such a strikeout-minded pitcher. With that in mind, he does lead all of Major League Baseball in strikeouts per nine innings from starting pitchers. It's 11 point something. 215 and like 160 innings. He's just a big strikeout guy, but he wants those strikeouts. And with those strikeouts come two things home runs and walks. And that's where he should be much better. For a guy with his stuff, he should not give up. He should not give up the same home run rate as Matt Boyd. But he does. And it's not a high home run rate, it's just relative for his stuff. 71 walks, that's big walk. That's a lot of walks in 160 something innings. Now he is an interesting, unique guy. I've spent a lot of time with Dylan C's, personally. And I'm not saying this jokingly or whatever. He's a unique guy. This does not matter to him nearly as much as you would expect it to. And I'm not saying it doesn't matter to him. But if the season ended tomorrow, he would be like, cool, I'll get to go home and play disc golf with my brother. So mentally, I don't think he. But that also works in the way he doesn't give a fuck. So I don't think you'll see some drastic change from Dylan C's. I don't think it's like you're gonna have this locked-in playoff guy because I don't think that guy exists. I think the best version of Dylan Sease is when he just doesn't give a fuck. His stuff's nasty, moves all glove side, cut heavy. He does not throw a change, doesn't throw a sinker. He has it in the repertoire, but he'll never throw it. It's 85% of the time it's forcing fastball or slider. Both pitches are very hard. Sharp, break repeatedly, and then he's got a nasty curveball similar to Pavetta's in that it has probably 70% more downward break than an average major league. Pavetta had 100% more. Pavetta had a hundred percent more downward break than a curveball. Dylan C says like 70. So it's filthy stuff. That's the pitcher. He's got a 1.3 whip, almost 1.1.35 whip. That's huge. That's that's just way too. That's like Colin Ray has better numbers. I think Colin Ray has a better whip. That's insane to me. 71 walks. That's so much. He was fourth in Cy Young last year, second in 2022. He has been very good his last five starts. His best month was September. He has been at his absolute best lately. Terrible in the first half. Now, why is that? I think he's at the stage in his career. Does it really does it really matter? And he is a little bit worn for the type of pitcher that he is. We're at 37 minutes. This is a game two, just a little preview special. I don't expect, as now, as I say this, I'll pull up and see if the Cubs have posted their lineup yet. I don't anticipate the lineup to change at all, in the least bit. As I say this just posted, the lineup hasn't changed at all. How about that, folks? That's a nice moment for me. Sitting here doing a solo show, getting ready for the playoff game, a little bit of COVID, staying at home, drinking a tea, holding my dog, just getting ready for the Cubs playoff game, gonna tap back into the theme of yesterday's show. Just so grateful to be here, to be doing this, to have the community of the maniacs, to be out slinging Thirsty Vaquero, to be going to the playoff game with Dave, to be part of the part of the just best playoff atmosphere I could ever imagine any sport in just about the best stadium for any sport in the entire world. All surrounded by Chicago people. Good old fucking Chicago Cubs fans. You know, cheering the boys 3-1, clean game. Now game two. Now an opportunity to just get some rest, beat the Padres. I think we I predicted yesterday we'd win the game 3-4-1. I'm gonna say today. That's so douche of me. I predicted accurately that I did this correctly. I'm such a douchebag when I want to be. No doubt about it. But do a solo radio show. Some of the stuff comes out, guys. Do a solo show. Some of your do it's hard to keep your douchebag inside for this long alone. I was right. All hell me. I was correct. I am the man. I'm such a fucking douchebag. I think Cubs win this game today. I think realistically, I think we get to Cease early. I think it's 8-2, 8-3. I think it's I think it's Cubs. I mean, I'm not telling you to bet this, but if like you were taking bets, Cubs minus one and a half Cubs team over, game over. I mean, I think that's fair. But most importantly, I hope and sincerely pray that the Cubs are not the first team since the new playoff format has been introduced for us to not advance after winning the first game. That's such a terrible way for me to do say that. I'm such a moron. Alright, there's 12 series in the history of this format. In all 12 formats, winner of game one has moved on to the wild, has moved on to the NLDS round. We're 12-0. So the Cubs just won. We're trying to make it 13-0. We don't want it to be the 12-1. This is the Monday morning Cubs show. This is just a quick game two, pre game one recap, game two prep. I gotta hit, I gotta shut up and hit play on this. Um, thank you to everybody who's tuned in. Please review the show if you get a chance. Check out Thirst of Vicaro, and I will be back immediately again. There will be a second show out tonight. Hopefully, Maho hopefully it's a winner, so Mahoney's with us. If it's a loser, I'll be solo again. Uh love you guys go.