Monday Morning Cubs Show

Inside The Cubs’ Shota Imanaga Decision And A 2026 Rotation Blueprint

• Carl + Mahoney • Season 2 • Episode 69

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A World Series split is the perfect mirror for what the Cubs need next: a rotation that hunts outs, not headlines, and a front office brave enough to buy flexibility instead of false certainty. We dig into the big call around Shota Imanaga’s contract—three years at $57M with a no-trade if exercised versus a leaner path that prefers a $15M pivot year—then lay out how that decision ripples through the entire 2025 build. The question isn’t whether Shota is good; it’s whether the league adjusted to his fastball shape or health blunted the deception, and how much risk the Cubs should carry when Justin Steele and Cade Horton already set the staff’s tone.

From there, we zoom out to identity. Dansby’s power gain must meet better two-strike choices. Nico either adds thump or swipes 40 to keep the offense humming. Michael Busch’s role versus lefties can’t be a shrug. PCA’s winter needs a plan that turns elite defense into six months of impact. We argue that October baseball rewards teams that allocate innings to command-first, put-away arms, not just chase strikeout crowns.

We also survey realistic upgrades. Dylan Cease is electric but expensive and walk-prone; could Tommy Hottovy convert him from a whiff hunter into an at-bat dictator? Ranger Suárez brings fearless sequencing, Verlander tempts on short-term upside, and depth pieces like Colin Rea matter more than fans admit. Add in trade routes—if Owen Caissie or Moises Ballesteros force roster choices—and the path becomes clear: decline rigid commitments, keep options open, and spend where it truly moves October odds.

If you care about how the Cubs catch the Dodgers without copying them, this conversation lays out the map: grit over gloss, flexibility over vanity, and a rotation that competes every count. If this breakdown hit home, follow the show, leave a quick review on Apple or Spotify, and share it with a Cubs friend who loves arguing roster math as much as you do.

Thanks for tuning in!

- Carl & Mahoney

SPEAKER_00:

Good morning, good afternoon, and evening Chicago Cubs fans. Welcome back to the Monday Morning Cubs Show. Today is Monday, October 27th. It is Carl. This is a solo show. Mahoney is in Michigan right now doing IT installs. So everybody obviously go give him a quick little shout. Say, hope you're doing well. Safe travels. Good luck with the installs. Um, we just have a couple things to talk about. We're in the middle of the World Series. We're gonna come back later after the World Series is concluded with kind of a big package show about you know player grades and a little bit more serious evaluating the 2025 season as a whole. But I thought just for purposes of today's Monday morning cub show, I think we should talk a little bit starting pitching. That's kind of a sweet spot here. There's a big question going on with Shota Ibanaga that quite frankly, I think is hard enough for everybody to understand. Like if you hear people talking about what are the Cubs gonna do with Shota Ibanaga, I think it's a little bit more complicated, you know, than we give it credit for. So I want to get into some of that. Just some light news in the offseason. We're just trying to keep some momentum going. The Monday Morning Cub Show is gonna be an annual show. It's not going away in the offseason just because it's the offseason, we're gonna do our best. That said, I do think I'm gonna miss one. I think I'm gonna be missing one. I'm gonna be out of the country in two weeks from now. So maybe we'll see. Maybe I just lied to you guys when I said this is gonna be an annual show. We do have a day coming up. I am gonna be out of the country. Today I am in country. Literally in God's country, surrounded by beautiful fucking nature. Hopefully, everybody had a good weekend. Chicago Bears, unbelievably disappointing game against the Ravens. You know, are you in or out on Caleb Williams? We could probably just do a whole show right now. Are you in or out on Caleb Williams? You think this is bitter shtick? What's the difference between him and Mitch? No, what is? Is Kate was Caleb Williams the best quarterback in that draft class? Is Drake May better? I'm not asking you guys to crash a car right now. I'm asking you guys to answer a very simple question. Are you in or out on Caleb Williams? I know I'm in on Ben Johnson. I don't think Ben Johnson's in on Caleb Williams. This is a Chicago Cub show. If I want to sit here and talk Caleb Williams all day long, just pull a fast one on you guys. We're gonna take callers. Yeah, this is Jim for Burbank. I fucking hate Caleb Williams. Thank you, Jim. We could do that. I'm not going to. You know, theme of the show is let's talk starting pitching. Let's forget about the fact that a lot of people are out on Caleb Williams. Let's talk starting pitching so we don't have to worry and lament about the fact that just a game we should have won to be 5-2 with the Chicago Bears. Should absolutely have won that game. Holy shit. You know, we can't beat those bums on the road. No Lamar Jackson on the sideline. He he got some late night food the other night. I don't know if you guys saw this go viral. This isn't a YouTube show. I'm not gonna cut to a clip, but I'm saying if you saw it, you'd be familiar with what I'm talking about. A very stoned Lamar Jackson and a couple real big plates of food, if we're being honest. If those were just for him, I didn't expect to see him play Sunday either. It didn't matter. Tyler Huntley, you go play. Cooper Rush, you go play. John Harbaugh was gonna take a couple snaps. We stood no chance. So, you know, driving in territory, bad, bad interception, not in territory, trying to get out of our own fucking territory. This is a Cubs show. Are you in or out on Caleb Williams? That's my question for Cubs fans. And maybe you don't give a shit. Maybe you're Fort, maybe you're Alliance fan. You know, maybe you don't have to answer these questions for yourself. This is a solo show. Follow Mahoney. Also, guys, we have a we have a Stirk Family Farms promo code available to all Monday Morning Cubs listeners. 20% off any order in store. Um promo code is MMCS. And the weather's changing. The skin is drying up. We have Wagyu eye cream for a little overnight treatment. You know, you look in the mirror, be honest with yourself. Do you see the same guy you used to see? Are those eyes starting to go? Do you need a Wagyu eye cream treatment? Do I have some for sale with 20% off? Do I ship internationally? Try me. Go ahead and try me. I dare you. Cubs fans in Bangladesh, come get some. Also do Indianapolis. I mean, I'll go, it'll go anywhere. Miracle bomb for hands or face. People love it for the hands. And of course, some good lip bombs, guys. That's 20% off. Promo code MMCS. Promo code MMCS 20% off. Alright, and then just some commentary. World Series is tied at game one at the time of recording. We get a game three tonight. Love a game three. Absolutely love a game three when it's tied 1-1 in Los Angeles. A lot of credit to the Blue Jays for just being weird, creepy guys. That's a creepy baseball team. Those guys are real close. That reminds me of a summer baseball team. These guys are talking about sleeping on the couch together in the fucking World Series. Everybody on the Dodgers gets their own suite. Everybody on the Dodgers is getting their own suite, staying at the Ritz-Carlton. You know, God knows what Otani's got going on in that bedroom. Guarantee you he's a big hooker guy. Not even gonna throw it allegedly on this one. This is an absolute fact when I tell you, show hey Otani and hookers go hand in hand like peanut butter and jelly, my friends. Otani, probably weird shit too. Not even sexually, I'm just saying. You know, I want you to squeeze the peanut butter in my mouth. I want you to squeeze the jelly in my mouth. I want you to wear full clothes. I want you to wear nice nice cotton sweater. You know, just something weird. Why is Shohei Otani so fucking weird? Why is he so good at baseball? He's a weird guy. My point with the Blue Jays, we got dogs in this clubhouse. George Springer's a dog. You may not believe it. He's a dog. Got bullied his whole life for having a stutter, which I'm not making fun of as much as I'm pointing out. The guy's got, you know, his legitimate, long-standing issues getting in front of the public and saying his piece on things. Big home run against the Mariners. Put him in the World Series. Ernie Clement's having a great season. Kevin Gossman's one of the biggest weirdos in Major League Baseball and a nice guy. Does not preclude you from being what? Weird, yes. Bo Bachet, obviously, some issues. Miles Straw. Uh outfielder Miles Straw. If he's not the biggest weirdo in Major League Baseball, you know, then Dalton Varsho is, and both of those guys look like serial killers and they're all in the Blue Jays together. I could keep going. All right. Alejandro Kirk, do you want me to keep doing this? Eric Lauer, relief pitcher, Chris Bassett. These are psychopaths on the Blue Jays. And the only question I'd have for you guys, in the same way I'd ask are you in or out on Caleb Williams, is are you cheering for the Blue Jays, even though they're Canadians? Because I do this in golf. If I see an American down the stretch, I don't have to know him. Who Maverick McNeely's a good example? And I know his dad's rich and all this stuff, but there's a golfer most of you don't fucking know. You see him in the leaderboard down the stretch, say he's playing in the Genesis Open. You know, and I'm just making this up as I go. But somebody's flying the South African flag. Not who stays in, he's live. But you know, somebody, Brendan Grace, he's live too. Somebody's up there. Some Australian. Who is it? I don't give a shit. Some European. Alex Norrin, there you go. He's not live. Alex Norrin, 43-year-old Swede. And you see the Swedish flag on the board. Then you see the American flag underneath. I believe I speak for every American when I say we're pulling for the American. I think in every single situation like that. Don't make me even do World Cup. That's crazy. But if you see an American on a soccer team, I think it's mostly an American inclination to be like, I want this guy to do well. Don't even get me going, Americans in the basketball. Okay, that's a little bit more of a split decision, some of you guys. So you know, the Slovakia team had a good team. Or whose team was it? With uh with Jokic? Who is he Slovakian or Vanian? They played well down the stretch. They got a lot, there were a lot of there are a lot of Chicago firefighters going, man, these guys play fundamental basketball. And we're getting so off topic, and which I think is a good place to be mentally as a Cubs fan right now, is just be this far off topic. That's just fine by me. This early in the show, and we're not gonna go for a whole we're not, I mean, what do you think? If you think I'm sitting here and gonna sandbag you with an hour and 15, you're out of your mind. You are absolutely out of your mind. What we are gonna do is talk about the Cubs starting pitching. And if you're paying attention to the playoffs right now, I would imagine so if you're listening to this, you gotta be kind of sick in the head to be out on the baseball season still in on the Monday morning Cub show at this point. You know, so big thing I'd say with the starting pitch, we have better starting pitching than the Toronto Blue Jays on paper with a healthy Kate Horton, and he would be healthy at this point in the season if we made it this far. He was hurt down the stretch. His ribs, of all the reasons to get hurt, the ribs, oof. That one's brutal. But this is just a quick observation from what I'm saying, and when I look at this team, and I'm being dead serious, our starting pitching matches up, at least against the Toronto Blue Jays. The Dodgers are a different beast. And as it stands 1-1 going into Toronto or going into Los Angeles, it's tough that it's very tough the Blue Jays couldn't get up 2-0. Because even then, I think it's like if they're up 2-0, they're not huge favorites in the series. The Dodgers are very tough to beat at home. Dodgers Stadium's insane. If you have not been to Dodgers Stadium, 55,000, four racks. They got an upper deck, upper deck. They have an upper upper deck that holds like 10,000. Most dangerous ticket in sports. Except for Mile High Stadium, been there too. Almost fell off of that place. And someone would say, Well, that's what you get for drinking so much. And I would say, Oh, control, my friends. It was the elevation, it was the lack of oxygen in my brain. That was what was contributing to my poor balance at Mile High Stadium. Dodgers Stadium 55,000 on their feet the whole fucking time. And I think they go to 58 if they open up the outside a little bit more. So this is just for the Blue Jays, they need game three just about as bad as they would need elimination game. Because you know the Dodgers are going to win two out of three at home. So if you're the Blue Jays, the sooner you can get the win on the board, the better. Now, a good reference point, just as we're talking about World Series and stuff, I hope people, at least good Cubs fans, you know, are the Dodgers ruining baseball? Absolutely not. You know, is a 35-year-old Freddie Freeman ruining baseball? The Braves could have kept him. They had to pay more money. The Dodgers offered him more money, a whole lot more money? No. But enough for him to say, I should go take more money. The Red Sox are ruining baseball by not keeping Mookie Betts. You know, and fuck off. Max Muncie is a chubby catcher from Baylor. Anyone can have Mike, uh, Max Muncey. You know, Michael Conforto fucking blows. He had under 200 this year. MILF, great mom. Big Rack. You know, Teoscar Hernandez finding it in his early 30s. And even so, one and a half war. Like, people are sucking, they're sucking the Dodgers' dick for being like, well, can you believe they only play pay Oscar Ternade? Teoscar Hernandez 22 million a year. That's a tough one to say, by the way. Did get through it. Teoscar Hernandez,$22 million a year. I mean, the big thing there is show Hey Otani and going back to him. That's a fraudulent guy. That's hookers in the bedroom doing weird stuff. That's having his buddy take the fall for him on the gambling stuff. He's a weird guy. He's he does not, he's he's he is not what you think he is. Say that 7.7 more as a DH. Incredible season. You know, Barry Bonds has seven MVPs, though buddy. Like, I'll suck your time when it's good and ready. You know, it's not right now. That's my point. And as Cubs fans, we and I talk about this lineup, the Dodgers, don't get me wrong, great fucking team. Great team. You know, but the fact that Tyler Glass now, the fact that Yoshinobu, Yamamoto, the fact that Blake Snell are all finding themselves in the playoffs here dominantly. You know, those guys, those guys sucked in May. Those guys were dog shit in June. No, most of those guys were on the DL. You know, Yamamoto threw 173 innings. I'll be respectful to him. Congratulations. The 30 starts. He's been here all season. Absolutely dealing. Absolutely filthy. Big strikeout rate. So as we look at the Cubs starting pitching, we just think generally about next year, you know, yeah, we'd have to beat the Dodgers in the playoffs. I think everybody kind of accepts that. All right. There's a lot of rumors here, talks. Kyle Tucker going to the Dodgers. Okay. So be it. So big theme we talked about last week in the show is having that culture and having that chip on our shoulder. And having that, what I would say the 2013 Red Sox had, the 2018 Red Sox had, by no means are those great championship ball clubs on paper as much as they are in practice on the field because they play so damn hard. Like I think that's very fair. Obviously, 18 Red Sox benefit from having Chris Hell. And so this is what we're going to talk about with the starting pitching today with the Cubs. Okay? The first identity issue here thing, and going back to last episode, having the culture of great, gritty, tough baseball. And I think Matt Shaw is a huge step forward in that. Dansby Swanson is a mainstay in that across Major League Baseball. I think the quality of Nico Horner's play can be interpreted from that. I'd like to see him steal a little more bases next year. If he's not going to slug, which is fine. We haven't bitched about him not slugging, but I want to see Nico get a little dirtier, get to that 40 mark. Can he do that? And am I even being ridiculous in saying this? But as I talk about being tough here, is there a way I can get Michael Bush in against lefties every year? You know? Is that crazy? And if we aren't gonna have Michael Bush in against lefties, do we have a better platoon situation at first base on Justin Turner, who we have a club option on that we pick up on? I think I'm just walking in the river. If we pick up a club option on Justin Turner, you guys are gonna be floating out of the Chicago River. That's him, officer. That's a guy who didn't want Justin Turner on the Cubs. You'll confirm it. You'll confirm the body. I got a cactus tattoo on my left arm. On my mother's life. Nico Horner, 29 stolen bases this year, despite you know, despite having just about his highest career on base percentage, we hit him a lot in six this year. So that's just a good question, Mark. Another good question, Mark. We will talk about the pitching staff. Don't worry about the pitching staff. I was talking about cultural identity here. I'd like to see Pete Carl Armstrong improve this offseason. He was great this year, obviously a huge slump. But what's his state of mind for improvement? Is it physically getting stronger? Does he feel like he broke down towards the end of the season? If you're Pete Crow Armstrong right now, PCA, you are, whoever you are listening to this, your name could be Pete. That'd be trippy. You know, Pete, listen to me. Did you slow down in the second half because of body issues? Were you too tired? I don't think Pete parties. I don't think Pete Crow Armstrong gets after it. I don't think this is like a booze thing, you know, go to bed thing. And there are guys like that on the Cubs before. All right? Hobby bias. Hey, pal, slow down, amigo, put the fucking booze down. No, can I say that? Yes, I can. Speculatively, sure, fine, whatever. There I go, defaming a guy with$200 million career earnings. But I'm saying historically in this game, we have we have a litany. Slow down, young man. That's just a thing in baseball. That and it'll always be, or will it? Because people say the modern generation, much more video game, you know, on your butt cheeks, ordering bad Chipotle online, sitting in your hotel room. So where does Pete Crow Armstrong fall in the spectrum of, hey, you probably shouldn't be at Tavern on Rush right now, chasing that 38-year-old with a big set of hooters? Or is he the type of guy who's home, you know, Call of Duty too late? Is he playing Call of Duty too late then? Or does he need to play more Call of Duty? Is he Fortnite? And does any of this stuff matter? I don't know. Why do I why am I even trying to speculate between the two? But what I'm trying to say is Pete Crow Armstrong, as we're improving this offseason, right? He's gonna go see his trainer, he'll be doing his workouts, he'll have the bat in his hands, he's hitting off the team, all that stuff. Now, mentally, where's that state of improvement going? Now, for Dansby Swanson, as a contrast for the last two years, has largely been about developing more power, simplifying a swing and adding power, which he has. Right? So now I think it's fair to look at Dansby and say, hey, off-season game plan here, buddy, would be can you now take some of these adjustments you've had towards power and let's curb strikeout? You know, 140 strikeouts, my fucking ass, pal. Seriously. My fucking cheeks. You know way too much about this game. Way too prepared towards a starting pitcher. So, or is this a is this approach simplification stuff with Dansby? He obviously has a lot of room to improve within the approach aspect. Too many strikeouts, not reliable runners in scoring position, which dictates approach, which to me dictates working off of fastball for power, who's a guy who's already a great fastball hitter. But we reflect on the last couple years of changes from Dansby. And if you if you're gonna hit under Mendoza 200, right? If you're gonna be Michael fucking Conforto here, with runners in scoring position, even worse with two outs, you know, looking like Steve Traxel in the box with less than two outs. So then what are the adjustments? Now some people just say, hey, use right center, etc. Now the fact is easily identified, and as per purposes of comparing it to Pete Crow Armstrong, I don't know what his adjustments are. Because his chase wasn't there, meaning it wasn't like his chase rate spike in his slump. And I don't believe his whiff rate was particularly worse. So he didn't strike out more, he took more strikes. So this is this is just that cat and mouse game that the 2026 Cubs are gonna be enduring within this core, and there's some adjustments, and just to run through them again, Michael Bush, hit hit lefties. Nico Horner, you have one of two choices. If you are gonna slug at 400, you're gonna have to steal 40 bags. 29 this year, he's had 43 before in the past. That's a fact. Now we're being am I being picky? Fine, I don't give a shit. Yes, I am being picky. And to those that say, well, these people outperform their projections, fuck your projections. Those things are trash. The the reason you have projections are so you can individually tell who's way underrated. The fact we're gonna add all these projections up because these guys say play for the same team, and then we're gonna say this is what this means about what this team's gonna be this year. Seriously, let me just say it again. Watch my language. Take those projections and shove them up your fucking ass. Cubs project to win 86 games this year. Why? Because when we totaled their 40-man roster, 40-man roster projections. Again, below me. Team projections, trash. Trash. Trash. Did they outperform the Vegas Lines? Yes, they did. That's a good team. It's a good baseball team. Alright. As we talk about this, it's a delicious iced coffee. And just take a moment here to just say, dang. You know, and I know it's not ice coffee season, but it is sunny and just a breeze the way this thing hits. Woo! And those are those little moments you just have to enjoy in life. You know what is it? It's a good grilled onion from Wrigley, that's for sure. I know it's I know I know concession prices are high. And we're gonna we're gonna talk about that at some point down the road. Because, ladies and gentlemen, I bitched about Tom Ricketts last week. I got my hands on some interesting documents, most of which a 160-page PowerPoint document that Project Northside, which is the group of the four Ricketts children, used as a basis for modeling the Cubs to secure the$845 million worth of debt they used to buy the team outright. What I failed to mention last year is that may uh last week is that Major League Baseball carries a at the time, I would say a limit, a maximum, a threshold as to how much uh debt you're allowed to carry as a team, and it's about 10 times your interest, uh 10 times your earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization. Otherwise known as EBITDA, otherwise just call it earnings. Earnings 10x earnings is what you're allowed at at the time, Major League Baseball said. And I believe the Cubs, I believe the number that they had loaned against was something like 30. So riddle me that they did that. Now I've done some prep work. I'm gonna come back like Dan Carlin, the guy that's hardcore history. I'm in my notes, research, well written out, and I'm gonna take you guys. Maybe this will be my Christmas present to you guys. How arrogant is that? But it'll be the Christmas episode. We'll just be exactly with specifics how messed up it is at Tom Ricketts, how they bought this team. And I should stop calling it Tom Ricketts because it is the Ricketts consortium. I don't think Joe wanted the four kids to do it, but the four kids came together to do it, and then they latched on to Tom for media perspectives. And we can argue about why that is. I don't know. I don't know if Tom wants that, I don't know if that was a decision. I don't think Laura likes it. I think Laura had a big problem with it. You know, I think Todd Ricketts is a governor of Arkansas or Nebraska, so you gotta keep him out of the mix. You know, there's some juice there. So we're gonna come back. We're gonna talk about that stuff. If you listen to me bitch and whine about it last week, though, all that stuff holds true. I just wasn't I wasn't overly tight on numbers, but the theory is there that the Tom Ricketts, you know, family is just so overly leveraged on the Cubs and COVID set them back. I think they lost like$40 million cash this year that year, and I and I want to say that cash is leveraged against Wrigley Field, you know. Which means, hey, you don't make do on these loans. You know what that means. That means daddy gets a keys at Wrigley Field. Who's daddy? I think JP Morgan. I I gotta go through the numbers. So this is a long-winded note, though. The Cubs are good enough to compete in the World Series, they're good enough. We would have competed against the Dodgers, I think. They have elite pitching, they're not ruining baseball. You know, we can be just as good. Cade Horton's sensational. So let's just talk about the Cubs pitching stab. I might take a couple questions. You know, where are these questions coming from? I'll worry about that. All right. Next year, though, just get a couple guarantees. Cade Horton and Justin Steele, one, two, is a ferocious punch. All right, Matt Boyd has another year left on his deal. Jameson Taon has another year left on his deal. Between those four, we're rolling, baby. Like between those four, we're absolutely rolling. Now, the show to question why is this so difficult? And and it's difficult because they structured what I perceive to be the most difficult contract I've ever heard of. And when I say the most difficult con, I mean like we're talking about the fact the Cubs right now have an option to pick up three years in$57 million on Shota Imanaga. So that's the number one thing to start is that the Cubs can pick up an option on Shota Imanaga, which is three years fifty-seven million dollars, they make that decision by the end of this season. So by December 31st, 2025, the Cubs have to decide we can give Shoda three years 57 million. It's 20 million next year, 20 million the year after that, 17 million in 2028. Now again, anytime we talk free agency long-term contracts right now, I guess we have to weigh the fact that there should be a strike coming after the end of next year. And I think the big issue there is salary cap, salary floor. I'm very much against the salary cap. Maybe that's another addition. You know, I'll do my research on why salary caps basically and socialism go hand in hand. Like the Bolsheviks. That's what I think of salary caps. I think we're overthrowing a government. I think we're about to execute somebody's family in a basement. I think Czar Nicholas, I think the whole Ivory Anastasia, the whole kids wiped out by machine gun fire. That's what I think of when you think when you when someone even says baseball salary cap, I think here comes the violence. So as far as Shoda's concern, you know, why does this matter when we talk about are we gonna invest in stuff? Is stuff gonna change? Do we want what are the things we want to lock in? Now at the start of the season, Shodi Imanaga 20 million a year for two years and 17 in 2028. Like, who says no to that? Right now, at this point, we saw wheels fall off. Now the question is, is it health or did the league adjust? If the league adjusts, he ain't worth 20 million. If the league adjusts to the rise on the fastball, which is it looked like they did, or is there no rise on the fastball? It's probably both. When you talk about a player falling apart, oftentimes it's health leads the way, then adjustment comes. And if you're doing this along the way, if you're if the health is compromised and then you're making an adjustment based on the fact, hey, my heel bleaks a little, my ankle's not as firm as it used to be. I can't land as hard. Now I have to make an adjustment. Now, if we do these two things at the same time, the league's making an adjustment and saying, hey, that ball's over the plate. Actually, you're better off looking right field. Whatever that adjustment is against show, it happened. Something happened. He didn't look like$20 million. 20 million? 20 million. Hey, I like the guy too. Now that's option, that's the first thing that has to happen. We're talking about Shodi Minogue. It's a$357 million option. Cubs have to make a decision. Can they trade him? Yeah, you can trade this. You can. However, if the Cubs pick up this option, he gets a no-trade clause with it. So number one. Now I'm gonna walk through this. This is from Chief Cub on Twitter. He laid this out perfectly. Five-step design for me. At Chief Cub. The guy wants it. Cubs can exercise a three year option 26, 7, and 8. 26, 20 million, 26, 27, 20 million, 28, 17 million. Just package that baby up. Now the cub's gonna say we don't. We do not. And if I'm Jed Horrier, I don't. I've spend that money elsewhere. Somebody said, Carl, who you who you gonna spend it on? Carl, who you spend it on? I'll spend it on whoever I want. No, I'll I'll spend it on whoever I want. It's not gonna be Shoda Imanaga. Serve it up. Because what we need to do is take a step forward. You know, he was fine. He went a little backward. Did he not? Did he not? So that's where my head's at on Shoda Imanaga. Because if the Cubs decline, now Shoda has the option to come back and say, I would like to pick up a player option. I'm gonna play for you guys for 2026. That's gonna cost 15 million. And then Shoda might say to himself, I need this$15 million a year to prove I'm better so I can go get a bitter, bigger contract. I think that's more there for injury purposes. I think that's more there actually, though, in this case, for regression purposes. Now, step one, Cubs say, Do we want to give you$357 or not? Say they say no. Shoda then has a choice. Do I want$15 million a year from the Cubs? Now this I get a little wonky on. If he says no to the$15 million player option, the Cubs can then come back and counter with a$22 million qualifying offer for this year, one year only. They can if they want. I think that would be crazy. I don't think that's gonna happen. I think that would be the weirdest situation. I think that's extremely weird. If they do get after 2026, if he does take his player option in as well, now it triggers a two-year$42 million extension that the Cubs now have. Does this make sense? If if after 2026 the Cubs then have a two-year option, if they don't pick up the two-year option, Shoda has another$15 million player option. I'll walk through this just slowly again, one more time. The Cubs right now have a decision to give Shoda Imanaga three years$57 million. If he gets it, no trade clause. They love him. Three years he's here on the books. I don't think Jed's gonna do it. Then it goes to this. Shoda has a$15 million player option. I bet he picks it up. He could say no to that, and now he's a free agent. He could say no to that, then the Cubs, as a free agent, they can make a qualifying offer of$22 million for a year. Which maybe he does pick that up, but then he's absolutely just a free agent after that. If he takes the$15 million, then he opens up the opportunity for a two-year option following 2026,$24 million and$18 million for$42 million. So technically, if he it would still pay him the same$57 if they exercise the three years to start this year. Now he could say no to that. The Cubs could say no to a two-year option. Imanaga would have a$15 million player option in 2027. Who needs a cigarette? Woof. What a decision. Now, I don't think Jed does it. I think he declines the three-year option. I think he gets the$15 million. I think he opens up some flexibility. I don't think you trust, I don't personally think you can trust Show to Imanag. If Justin Steele is coming back healthy, lefty, and Kate Horton's as good as he is. I mean, we just don't have room for Show to Imanaga to pitch like a four. Because that's who he was in the second half of the season. What I'm saying is it's either health or the league adjusted. He's just over the plate. I mean, he's serving it up. He got absolutely tattooed by the Chicago White Sox on the road. Is he tipping? Is he salvageable? I don't know him well enough. I know if I have to make a bet on 91-92 that is deceptive, that is obviously no longer deceptive, then I tend to want to walk away from that situation. As much as Ben Brown, no. Push him off a cliff. In theory. I'm not saying if you're out there, he's taking pictures, push him off a cliff. I'm saying in theory, in your mind, there's a cliff, there's a ledge. You drop stuff off of it when you don't need it anymore. Ben Brown, right there. Throw that motherfucker off the cliff. That's a messy option with Shoda, though. Now, when you take that messy option, we don't have that with Kate Hortons guaranteed. Rookie deal. He'll get paid$800,000 next year. He'll get paid$900,000. Justin Steele, what's he making? Pre-arb two? His arbitration just went through the orbit. The only thing that can hurt you in arbitration is getting hurt. Good luck. Hope you have a good agent, Justin. And not just a buddy in the family like Anthony Rizzo. Hopefully you have an actual good agent who can go out there and negotiate for you because you just missed. Yeah, no, we I hate to do this to you, but your arbitration money is going to get absolutely cooked by the fact that you just haven't played. It's literally the only way that you can take an arbitrary. Normally, you'd be looking at this guy in the teens. He'll be lucky to get a cup of coffee. Jamison Tayan has one year to prove it, and I just thought the way he pitched down the stretch, it looks like he's just fully settled, which is crazy to think. Matt Boyd also sensational this year. Will he get better? Will he regress? I just know that these guys are in the rotation. They're in the mix. Javier Asai did not get a chance to pitch at all this year. Does he come back? Does he come back healthy? Does he come back fresh? Colin Ray at club option six million. You got to be morons not to pick that up. Colin Ray in a pinch outstanding, way overused last year. Is he a long relief guy? Can he mix out of the bullpen for inning? Can he make a spot start? I think for six million bucks, we're absolutely for sure putting Colin Ray on his team. I think you've got to be a complete moron to say otherwise. And I'm not calling anybody here a moron. I'm saying you guys have to be a complete moron not to. Now, where can we add? I think that gives you a chance to add at the very top. Now, I don't like the first the first name anybody's going to talk about is Chris Sale. And the reason you're going to talk about Chris Sale, and that just because he's obviously very good. You're going to talk about Chris Sale because he's one of the best left-handed pitchers of my generation. It's a club option. So that's a problem. That's an Atlanta Braves club option for Chris Sale. And how much is it? You'll have to excuse me. The club option for Chris Sale, not to be dramatic here, guys, is only$18 million. Yeah, you pick that up. You absolutely pick that up. 125 innings, 21 starts. Because if not, then you circle Chris L. The Cubs are heavily linked to Dylan C's. The thing you like about him, he's 30 years old. The thing you don't like about him is Dylan Czes is a weird guy. And I mean that weird from the perspective of somebody you would be giving$35 million to,$30 million to. He's every bit of five years,$150 million. One. Two, he's also every bit of incentivized by the fact to go out and make as much money as possible based on personal conversations. He's represented by Scott Boris. He's somebody who very much sees his profession and his obligation is getting paid as much as possible. And I don't think he would take five years. I think he has arm injury issues. I think he's got health issues. I think he'd want a no-trade clause. I think you're looking seven years,$200 million, five years,$160. I haven't read a lick of predictions on Dylan Cease. He's obviously a huge strikeout guy that would fit perfectly in the Cubs rotation. I also like the fact that he's a young guy. He's kind of neutral minded, meaning like all that, he didn't give a shit if there's a lot of people cheering at Wrigley Field or if there's no people at all. Like he really is just going to go out there and throw a slider as hard as he wants. He didn't have a great year, too. 32, 32 starts, 215 strikeouts, 168 innings. You know, led all of Major League and strikeouts per night innings. Why wasn't it any better? 71 walks. He's walking almost four guys per night innings. He's a very difficult guy to watch. And he's hardly putting up five outs and change per start. Now, is that somebody Tommy Hotovy can approve? Probably. And he's also pitching for his big contract. So that's just like a big strikeout guy in the first place. I don't like guys who get on the mount and try to strike people out. I like guys that get on the mount and try and put people away. That's what Justin Steele does. That's what Kate Horton does. I don't like guys that get on the mound and try and throw big power everything. You're looking for somebody who's getting in there and trying to control it bad and dictate success. So is Dylan C-Set guy? That's the question. The answer is no, not yet, not necessarily. But I like him way more than Frambert Valdez and Ranger Suarez. Because I think those two guys are both very settled in their ways, which are fine. Framer Valdez has had a ton of success, throws a heavy ball. You know, I just don't love him. And I think he's very emotional, and I think he's very sensitive to the feel of his pitch. I think if he doesn't have his sinker going, he gets real cranky and stuff. I just don't necessarily love him in the mix either. Like I think we have a mix of guys I want to see somebody fit into. I think Dylan Sees fits into that mix. And could Ranger Suarez, yeah, probably. People love Ranger Suarez. People love him. Big league players would call him a gangster. He'll throw fucking any pitch in any count, doesn't give a shit, pitches inside, talks a ton of shit, fucking wants every strike call. People love Ranger Suarez. Supposed to be extremely swaggy. This and that. You know, the question is like, do we need that? We kind of have he's kind of Justin Steele and Ranger Suarez would be very similar. Just in that we kind of have that already. I've the thing about Dylan C S out of all of this would just be more interesting. We can't trade for Freddie Peralta. You know, and then there's some names I just kind of like a lot. I really like the name Zach Gallen, Merrill Kelly, Zach Latell. Like I like these guys a lot. I think Justin Verlander's a free agent. I think that's kind of interesting. You know, Kyle Hendrickson didn't necessarily retire. That's that's pretty crazy. Chris Bassett. So there's some good names to be like connected to out there to be paying attention to. I personally don't love Dylan Sees individually. I do think he fits into the pitching staff well, and I would like to see what Toby Hotovit would do with him. But if we get the Dylan Sease we got this past year that was had a 1.1 ERA or 1.1 war while strike while leading the major league in strikeouts per nine innings, that's kind of interesting, right? He doesn't, you know, he doesn't give up a ton of hits, does give up a ton of homers, 21 homers with that much strikeout stuff. You know, 71 walks is a lot of walks. He's led major league baseball and walks twice. He's led Major League Baseball wild pitches twice. He's better at this stuff than he was now. But to strike out that many people and have a one point, have a one, have a one have a 1.3 whip is pretty crazy. In 22, he did lead the American League and wins above replacement at 6.4 as a starting pitcher. So you gotta give him some credit where it's due. It's absolutely there. I do know it's motivated from a sense of getting paid as much money because that's quite literally the only thing he that's like that's the reason he's playing. If he did if he wasn't very good at this and wasn't making a lot of money, this guy would be playing disc golf at an orchard in Georgia with his brother. When I say I'm not, I'm not, I think he's interesting because I'm interesting. I think he's weird because I'm weird. I'm weird. I know weird, I know weird guys. He's a weird guy, and I like that a lot. I like that a lot because I don't think that clashes too much with people. I think weird just kind of just kind of comes and goes, my friends. Would I like to see him be better? Yeah, and maybe he can get better, but as it presently stands, he would have to improve drastically for me to justify$200 million to him. And I just don't know if Tom Ricketts has that money or that cash. But if we are gonna make this move, it would probably have to start with declining Shodi Imanaga's three-year$57 million extension, hoping that he would take the$15 million player option. Because if he takes that, then he can always take the$15 the next year and guarantee himself$30. If he takes the 15. But he's got to get right and he's got to get better because I don't know who would pay him that much more money. Maybe the Giants, maybe the Giants would swoop in, or the Seattle, the Seattle Mariners don't need the starting pitching, you know. But it would it would be a West Coast team, it could be the Padres that would sweep in and say, here's four years, you know, here's four years and 65 million dollars or something. Then he probably ends up taking that. So that's a delicate, you know, game we're gonna have to play. And then lastly, last not least here, trade situation. Like keep obviously just keep your eyes peeled. Cubs have some great young players, you know, it just drafted well too. Arizona Fall League is going on right now. Some of these guys on the Cubs are playing quite well, and so what this means is starting November 5th will be the GM meetings, and that's when they'll get this sense of who is in the market to be traded, so that when the winter meetings roll around in the first week, that gives them all of November, and the first thing teams want to do is figure out a blockbuster trade before they hit free agency. And I would definitely put the Cubs in that category, most notably just because of that simple conversation we've had between Moises Biasteros, Owen Casey, and Say Suzuki, assuming Kyle Tucker's out. Because most people they've been talking about Matt Shaw, just shut up already. If Matt Shaw get traded, it'll be the greatest trade that the Cubs have ever made in their lives because whoever they get for him will be like Babe Ruth reincarnated. That's what it would take for Jed Hoyer to trade Matt Shaw. I'm talking about simply the DH in the right field situation with say a Suzuki. And people that are like, would could we trade Ian Hap? Probably not. Maybe the Giants would take them. Like, why do I go to the Giants? Because maybe you know they're smart enough to value him. The fact that Cubs fans don't see him as a valuable player, he does everything like slightly above average, but people don't like him, so that's your prerogative. Go ahead, don't like him. But I would see last year of a$21 million deal. Yeah, we should trade. Yeah, a lot of teams are looking for that. Impact seven hitter. Get over yourself. No, the trade pieces I would say are Owen Casey, you know, didn't love his debut. Mo Baller did love his debut, want him to be a cub. They used him in the eighth inning of game five in the NLDS against Yuribe. Wasn't good enough to be in the everyday lineup. Just the problem with him, too, is you know, I wish he hit righty because then we could always find room for him with Michael Bush, but that's not the case. And these are the things we're thinking about. I said I'll get to some questions. I will make I will make time for one simple question. Which Cubs players have been nominated for awards this week? I think we have six guys for silver sluggers. You know, Pete Crow Armstrong's gonna get one. I mean gold gloves. Pete Crow Armstrong should get one. And, you know, if Matt Shaw does, you know, that'd be interesting. Should Nico Warner get one? Probably. I thought I saw Carson Kelly on the list. You know, maybe I'm making that up. I thought I saw Matt Boyd on a list. Did not see Danzby Swanson. That's okay. Did see Mason win. Um oh, and then the last thing, how about this? Status of the Cubs bench coaching and managerial staff. This is great because all I've seen is Ryan Flaherty moving on. And and one big issue you run into so many times in a baseball season is losing the coaching staff after a great year. So it looks like we'll be able to keep the nucleus together, which I really do think matters when you get to day one spring training. You don't have to be sitting there bullshitting with somebody you hardly know. So we can build these offseason relationships and just continue to take it to the next next level. So this is the Monday Morning Cup show. This is a solo show. You know, we talked extensively about Shodi Imanaga's contract situation. I'm interested in what you guys think about that. And then I will come back later this offseason with more information on Tom Ricketts. I was pretty emotional last week complaining about just the fact generally that he's not a cash-rich guy. That even though it's a big organizational value, the way that they made the purchase and to finance the team were setting themselves up for more cash in the long term, but the COVID hit in how much like far back they went into having to pay down this interest, and they are just kind of slowly clawing out of some of the hole that they built for themselves, and they did it selfishly. And the media is afraid to ask questions, they have a horrendous relationship with media. There's no honest reporting that goes on with the Chicago uh Chicago Cubs. There's not one person in the room who can ask a tough question. It's state-sponsored media now, you know, which was something that they prioritized to make more money on. And it's not just Tim as much as um, it's not just Tom as much as it's the entire Ricketts family. Joe, Todd, Laura, the whole kit and caboodle. So I want to do more research and get more into the weeds and exactly some of these relationships and and why I think it is now uh, you know, really the way that it is and why it can be frustrating. You know, we should not get outspent by the Blue Jays.$255 million this year to$211 million of the Cubs. You know, eighth or ninth, tenth payroll, that's okay. But when you think about it, it's like there's really no situation I should be in the same conversation with the Diamondbacks, you know, eating shit out of Manis and Bumger, uh, Manis and Bumgunner conversation, but that's a different blog. You know, that's a different blog for a different day, guys. So this is the Monday Morning Cub Show. If you guys are so inclined, throw a review on Apple or Spotify. It's the only two places to find the show right now. Spend some conversations about making video, uh, but I don't like that because you know I get left holding the bag on these thumbnails. You know, that's a pain in the ass. Uploading that stuff's a pain in the ass. You know, sad the camera's up's kind of a pain in the ass. You know, it's just it's not, it's just what am I trying to say here? It's not it's not fun. It takes away from the conversation. Because then you're in your head before the show, you're like, I gotta get this shot. You know, this doesn't fucking work. What are we eating dinner after this? I got time, I gotta, you know, buffer this. And this isn't a call for help. I mean, at this point, you know, we're doing just fine. What I'm trying to say is like, there's some this and that that goes into it. You're just like, you know what? If we're trying to have a good conversation, try to build a good community, the best place to start is a nice conversation. And the stuff that gets in the way of that, not particularly interested. You know, thumbnails do that does get in the way of it until it doesn't, until we figure out a process where it actually can be pretty fun. Uh, but in the meantime, I appreciate you guys subscribing to the show, uh, reviewing the show, and more importantly, use some of this stuff as basis points in your group text and your conversations. You know, when the show to stuff drops, it's like that's a layered fucking conversation, baby. You know, and you should be ready to have the is he worth 20 or 15 million this year? You know, personally, I think he's worth 15. And what you're guaranteeing and saying and giving him the 15 this year is that you're gonna have the flexibility next year. You can guarantee yourself 20 million next year in flexibility. And however that means, does it mean an extension of Pete Crow Armstrong? Does it mean an extension of Matt Shaw to somebody we really like? You know, we didn't even say Miguel Amaya's name today. So there's just a lot of different moving parts, and so that's it, that's a good motivator here with the show that's trying to empower you guys with some stuff to argue with your friends about. So, you know, review the show, subscribe it, give it to them, and talk all the shit you guys want. That's the that's the point of this. Uh, you know, in the meantime, thank you guys very much for showing up and tuning in. I love you. Go cut.