Monday Morning Cubs Show
A show every Monday morning about the Chicago Cubs from Carl and Mahoney.
Monday Morning Cubs Show
We Sucked Against The Nationals + Breaking Down Nico's $141M Contract
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We react to the Cubs dropping the opening weekend series and sort the real problems from the stuff that will fade once the season settles. We also dig into the Nico Horner extension and what it signals about the Cubs building around defense, payroll, and pitching to contact.
• opening weekend recap and why 1-2 feels so familiar
• quick schedule check with the Angels at Wrigley and Cleveland ahead
• Cade Horton’s efficiency and why his style is so hard to face
• Ian Happ’s hard contact and handling a bigger lineup role
• missed chances on Sunday and frustration with solo homers
• Wrigley Field beer prices and the pitch clock concessions theory
• early read on Alex Bregman’s dugout vibe and on-field look
• Nico Horner’s six-year deal and how service time changes player pay
• why elite up-the-middle defense supports pitching to weak contact
• Shota Imanaga watch and why the whiffs matter
• Miguel Amaya versus Carson Kelly and the odd batting order usage
• whether Michael Bush belongs in extension talks
Guys, don't forget, tune in on Friday's show
Make sure you leave a five star review
Thanks for tuning in!
- Carl & Mahoney
Cubs Open 1 And 2
SPEAKER_02And we're clear. Good morning, good afternoon, and evening Chicago Cubs fans, and welcome back to the Monday Morning Cubs Show. Today is Monday, March 30th. It's your host, Carl. I am joined by my close pal Mahoney. And the Chicago Cubs are one and two after dropping an opening weekend series loss to the Washington Nationals. Mahoney, where are you at, buddy? How you doing?
SPEAKER_01I'm doing good myself. See, I myself am doing pretty good, Carl. The sun is shining, as I like to say when it is on this Monday. Uh yeah, kind of a stinker of a weekend. You don't want to drop a series to the Nationals. The whole idea of like happy baseball's back and you know all that comes with that, I think was like still a nice to have. You want to see the team win, especially with all the news, the excitement, the expectations, but it's baseball, and these sorts of things do happen regardless of if it's opening day weekend or middle of the season slog.
SPEAKER_02I think it's easiest to say we should have played better, we could have played better, and everybody expected them to play better. That's where we're at. But it is the first three games of the season. It's it's really just up to an individual. How mad do you want to be through three games?
SPEAKER_01I don't I don't want to be mad at all, but I did find myself being a little bit tipped, you know, just certain things. It's like, am I worried about Shota? Should I be worried about Shota because of last year carrying into this season? Am I worried about Shota? Matthew Boyd, seven strikeouts, and then blows up in the fourth or fifth inning, whichever it was. So there's like little things where it's like, oh, why? Like, I just didn't want to have to talk about that this morning.
Quick Look Ahead At Schedule
SPEAKER_02We could have easily swept them. I mean, you're right. Boyd looked awesome through the first three innings. Uh Shodi Managa got a ton of swing and miss. The three-run homer game up, he gave up. Like, it wasn't a great pitch, but it was it was out of the zone. You don't you kind of want to stay off back foot, opposite batter. So if you're lefty, you know, throwing down and into a righty, you're kind of creating a gap for him. Same thing, righties down and in on lefties. Like those are launch zones, and that's where Joey Wemer beat Shoda. But we only had three solo home runs on Sunday. It's an opportunity to win this series and salvage it. So I have at the end of the show some stuff that did actually like, you know, it didn't bother me, but like, you know, just some stuff I'd like to clean up. Uh, we'll look ahead. You know, we do look ahead here for a second.
SPEAKER_01Move forward, as we like to say.
SPEAKER_02Three home games against the Angels. So that starts today. Mike Trout comes to town. They've already played four games, so that means our number four, who is Eddie Cabrera, will match up against their five. And then Jamis and Taon, our five, will pitch against their one, and vice versa. Then Matt Boyd will pitch against their two. So it's a little funky change right away, right off the bat. Um, we are off Thursday, and then there's a weekend series in Cleveland.
SPEAKER_00Rolling in the Cleveland through the lakes.
SPEAKER_02I just want to that's fine. I just want to get the schedule up front so maniacs know what's going on. We have three more home games. We're off Thursday. Enjoy that off Thursday, and then our first weekend series in Cleveland. They're always going to play us fucking tough. Uh, and then last thing off the top, listen to Friday shows. We're officially into two shows a week uh for the rest of the season.
SPEAKER_01Yeah, Carl, I love to see that pop up on my feed with Spotify and Apple Podcast. Give me the notification almost simultaneously. They're fantastic episodes. I love the ability that you have to one. Really break it down without thinking and having to pass things over to me. But I digest a lot of that information. You dove into some of the contract stuff with PCA, which was really, really good. Listen, um, you know, the fact that he's probably worth more. That was a big key takeaway for me. But he's like, hey, I want to be in Chicago, I'm a superstar, I'll take this cash, let's roll. So, yeah, listen to the Friday shows, guys. They're excellent breakdowns, and it frees us up not to just go over that entire week of news and information and try to squeeze it into a, you know, a 45-minute window.
Friday Shows And Sponsor Shoutout
SPEAKER_02How good does it feel that we don't have to? I have a little bit stuff follow up here for the Nico Horner contract deals, but like, yeah, we got in front of it. The PCA stuff talked all through it, you know, different motivations, speculated about Nico Horner's contract. We'll get into that later. Uh, some of the contract specifics. So we do like the Friday shows. I'll have a guess when appropriate. Maybe it's Moni, maybe it's other people from the crowd. We're gonna figure it out as we go. The most important thing is that we're gonna have those published, and the reason we're gonna have them published is because of our good friends at Thirsty Vaquero, a Mexican-style soda with the signature spicy finish. That is what, Mahoney? All bite, no rattle. God damn right. It's so good. Organic agave juice. I was pounding thirsty vaqueros this weekend on the couch. It goes good with food, it goes so good with food. It's a standalone beverage. Mahoney, how many how many TVs did you have this weekend?
SPEAKER_01I had at least four. Funny enough, I went to a little Final Four party, or not Final Four, but an Alliineye game party, and there was Thirsty Vaqueros in the refrigerator.
SPEAKER_02Love it.
SPEAKER_01Unbeknownst to myself, I opened it up and I'm like, what a thing of beauty. Gorgeous. So that was not that was nice to see in the same token opening day. I got more pictures sent to me of people enjoying a thirsty vacaro than I had, you know, throughout last year. So I'm I'm happy that the word is being spread throughout Cubs Nation and the Mid Monday morning maniac. So keep it rolling, guys. Thirsty Vacaro, it's delicious. It's it's an experience in the can. I I love the stuff. I'm happy to see it really spread throughout Cubdom.
Cade Horton Sets The Tone
SPEAKER_02Yeah, and you can get it on Amazon, three bold flavors, obviously sponsoring the lineup preview. So you're just gonna see a lot of thirsty Vacero content, but that's because it's my good buddy's company that has supported the Monday morning cub show that has launched us into two episodes a week. Um, and that's propping up the lineup previews because I do have other work in my life, you know, that it will never get talked about in ideally. But when you set aside the time like this between you and me, it's a hey, we got to do this. At some point, it's got to be worth it. At some at some point, you're trying to grow it to a point. And so we're just very lucky that Thirsty Vaquero has stepped in at a critical moment to just say we got to keep the ball roll, we got to keep it moving. So check them out on Amazon, guys. It's Thirsty Macaro. Um, let's do a quick weekend review. Okay, so I just have I don't know if you want to take the top or the bottom. I I have good, I'll take the first one. I just think that's Cade Horton, like picking up right where he left off, looked awesome Saturday. It's not a must-win, guys. It's not a must-win. But he didn't get the ball opening day. Matthew Boyd did. And the reason we lost opening day is because Matthew Boyd shit his pants in the fourth inning. All right. So if you're Cade Horton, you're sitting there and you're like, I'm probably a better pitcher than Matt Boyd, and he's competitive enough, he wants the ball. Then to take the off day Friday to show up Saturday, 75 pitches, six and a third inning, right where we left off. I mean, the guy is so efficient, pounds lineups, uh pounds of strike, uh strike zone. He's just a very difficult guy to get into a rhythm against, to string hits against, to get multiple runners on base against because he fills the strike zone up with stuff that's very difficult to hit hard. I love Cade Horton. That was my biggest takeaway from the weekend that like he just picked up right where he left off. 75 pitches, 75 pitches, six and a third.
SPEAKER_01Yeah, that's one thing you had mentioned was the efficiency and the way he operates and having you know, the opponent having a struggling to get into a rhythm. Cade Horton operates with efficiency and with such a rhythm on the mound where he is just staring and onto the next pitch, and he's like just a worker. I don't know if it's because of the pitch clock, what have you, but the guy is just consistent and the way that he delivers you know, next and next and next, he's just constantly working. So I'd imagine that's extremely tough for the opposition.
Ian Happ Steps Into The Three Spot
SPEAKER_02He kind of reminds me a little bit with Mark Burley with the pacing of like, give me the ball, I want it back. Even if I just miss my pitch, I'm not gonna. He doesn't walk around the mound and he doesn't like create these deep breath distractions for himself. It's really like one pitch after the other, but he is pitching with just much more elite stuff. I I don't want to call him an anomaly because there's still much more to watch with him, but I do think ultimately he will become the most fascinating pitcher in Major League Baseball because he's not a strikeout hunter, he's a weak contact hunter with strikeout stuff, but he has a finesse mentality of like, I'm gonna I'm gonna come at you and I'm gonna entice you to take swings you don't want to take. So, off the top, Cade Horton, that's my number one thing. Um, you and I talked a little bit about a left fielder. I know you were excited about this one.
SPEAKER_01Ian Hap on his way to that five season.
SPEAKER_02Yeah, yeah. We made it we made in our season prediction podcast with Alex Cohen that Ian Hap Mahoney says Ian Hap, this will be his first year over five B-war baseball wins, baseball reference wins above replacement. He is hitting the shit out of the ball. Like, I know I thought I saw it was two for ten with two homers and three RBIs, but if you extrapolate that over the course of a season, I'll take a 200 average for medium app with 60 homers, 61 homers.
SPEAKER_01Um, what was that you'd pointed out to with the wind blowing in from left? It was like 28 mile an hour across a ball that he had hit would have been destroyed, out of the out of the park, destroyed, and it was just high enough where it caught that vortex and the wind beat it down. Go look at Carl Sochals. I because I know that they posted a diagram, but yeah, he's hitting the ball extremely hard. So even with the you know, a couple pop-outs, but they're all hard hit balls, and he does look thunderous.
Sunday Loss And Missed Chances
SPEAKER_02Opening day, Ian hep registered the greatest discrepancy in the recorded stat cast era of batted ball expectation for total distance and batted ball actual total distance, where the expectation for total distance was somewhere in like the 450s, and it ended up being like a 345-foot uh fly out to left field just in front of the warning track. Truly remarkable. But I want to stay on this because Ian Hab's kind of forced into the three-hole with say a Suzuki being out, and like he will hit three, you know, he's probably much more comfortable hitting five or six just based on his profile and what he's trying to do. You know, he's not trying to hit home runs, he's not a guy who wants to necessarily-I mean, he he wants to hit home run, everybody wants to hit a fucking home run, but his approach is much more predicated on hard contact and not swinging at shit, and like that's not necessarily your three-hitter approach. So, just early in the season, you're gonna need a three-hitter because say is not here. So you just love Ian Hap stepping up into that role, and there were a lot of situations where he was turned around hitting from the right side, looked good from the right side. Usually that's that's kind of a little bit of a struggle bus with him compared to the left side. So those are really just the two good things that we have. Kate Horton looks sensational, Ian Hap thunder from the right side. Uh, moving moving on from that, though, some bad stuff. I'll say like losing Sunday, that's just bad. Like, like, I'm not mad, it's just bad. It's right tacky, and it's bad to lose 6-3 to the Washington Nationals in a 1-1 rubber match. Just go win the fucking game. Like, Jake Irvin's not a good pitcher. We made that guy look so much better than he was. I don't think Shoda looked awful, but just as far as bad is concerned, you have a chance to win the series, move on from a shitty opening day, and we can't string two fucking good games together out of the gate. This is the fourth year in a row they started one and two, the third year in a row underneath Craig Council. Like, let's get it going, boys.
SPEAKER_01Yeah, we got to get it going. I hate losing on Sundays. You know, my brain was a little foggy from watching the allian eye the night before, going to the final, you know, winning that game, going on to the final four, and neither here nor there. I was kind of just in a positive mindset, but still tired on the couch, and then just seeing the Cubs kind of like slog their way into the week is not the way that I like to finish things. And a lot of missed opportunities too. I feel like there was runners left in scoring position, you know, and there was times that we could have capitalized and really just didn't.
Wrigley Beer Prices Get Wild
SPEAKER_02Did not. No, and you're actually you're kind of pulling me into this Illinois conversation, which I've staunchly tried to avoid early in the show because I know people listening to this are like, Carl's going to the final four on Saturday. Like, uh Illinois's in the final four. I'm a final, I'm going to the final. I mean, I don't know if I'm personally going yet, but like I'm in the final four, you know what I mean? Like, that is lingering over the weekend too. And I don't know how much that is personally can. I actually I'll say I'll be very professional right now and say I don't think it has any impact on how I feel about the Chicago Cubs. Like, I'm I've done a good job of isolating these thoughts into just compartmentalized very well. Always have, you know, always have, always has been a strength. Um, did you have something you didn't like you thought was bad from the weekend?
SPEAKER_01I mean, I know beer prices are up again at Wrigley, and people aren't too happy about it. Not how about it?
SPEAKER_02How about it, dude? I thought I saw$17.99 for a beer that is brewed in the United States. I thought$17.99 was like I thought I saw$19.99 for like premium craft. Like, are you fucking kidding me? What is that? A 16-ounce anti-hero? I can go get that at a gas station for a dollar ninety nine. Are we really doing thousand percent markups at Wrigley Field?
SPEAKER_01No, it's insane. It has nothing to do with the ABV, and it's more so just them price gouging anywhere they can. It's it's unfortunate because there's nothing more than I do like to go to the ballgame and kind of suspend you know my financial responsibilities and just buy whatever I want there. I know I'm gonna spend a lot of money, but now it's gonna be even beyond noticeable. Like, I can't in my right mind buy more than maybe one beer a game when I attend, and I still would feel pretty obnoxious in doing so.
SPEAKER_02How about picking up a round for the boys going with the four person? Maybe you get sneaked into the first round where it's like, yeah, I'll get the first round. One round with the boys after tipping tax is going to be a hundred dollars.
SPEAKER_01The last thing I want to do is check my credit card bill, see how much you know left over I have, which card am I going to put this on? I shouldn't be looking at credit card statements to see how much availability I have within my balance to pay for beers at Wrigley. I should just be worried about my checking account, and that's it in those cases. But it's it's insane, it's kind of sad. Um, sporting events across the border are really obnoxious. But the last thing you want to do is go to Wrigley Field and then be disappointed because you're spending out your ass for a beverage.
SPEAKER_02How much of it is pitch clock where they crunch the numbers and they go concessions are down because pitch clock moved the games along faster. So now we got a press, like then major league baseball needs to come in and subsidize the Wrigley Field beer consumption, you know, and set aside whatever it is. If they're losing a couple million bucks in revenue over the course of the year because of the pitch clock and concessions are tightened, so you're losing an hour of drinking time per game, which means people are down per beer. So now we're gonna you know increase the price. There could be a deeper economic relation, is what I'm trying to explain here.
SPEAKER_01Oh, yeah, dude. Somebody had on their pivot tables in an Excel sheet to equate for the time of the baseball game going down in loss of concessions 100%.
SPEAKER_02Baller strike. I'm about to move on to the ugly part of the weekend.
SPEAKER_01That's a strike, Carl. Yeah, down the middle. Ugly.
Why The Slow Start Stings
SPEAKER_02Good, bad, ugly. Just the ugly thing. I had, and this is where it's like, I know we lose Sunday, and I said that was bad, but it the uglier part is just the totality of starting one and two for the fourth straight year. And like Major League Baseball's throwing us a bone. Here's the Nationals, here's the Angels playing four straight, no rest, having them travel up to Wrigley Field. They could not make it easier for the Cubs to jump out to like a six and one start because it's so good for marketability. So, my ugly aspect is nah, dude. Fuck this. It's Monday morning, and we're one and two for the fourth straight year against a team that is absolutely categorically fucking trash in a league where it's in becoming increasingly impossible to be trash, like average is all over the place in major league baseball. There's average everywhere, there's so limited, like pure trash. And this isn't a conversation about the Dodgers are elite, they're always gonna win every world. So I'm talking about at the very bottom baseball. There's only a handful of organizations that really occupy the bottom of baseball, and the nationals are one of them. We get them to start the season, and when we're one and two against them, so that's just like fourth straight year, no juice, didn't like that. I'm gonna get to some other stuff I didn't necessarily love from the weekend, but that's the ugliest part. Major League Baseball is making this easy for us, and we just can't get out of our own way.
SPEAKER_01Yeah, to trying to do us a favor, send us to Japan last year to play the Dodgers, you know, not the best start there, and then they literally invite the Nationals to come to town. And the last thing you want talking on this Monday following the opening day series is having the Cubs flag floating on the bottom in last place of the division.
SPEAKER_02Yeah, it just is what it is. So I my big takeaway or my big selling point to maniacs is like obviously don't overreact. Season's not over, you know, like pick and choose the stuff you want to be mad about. I think earlier in the season, it's easier to be more specific about what you want to get mad about. You know, it's not that they're remember like last year in August, like we're just not playing hard. You know, then you're talking in big generalities like Craig Council doesn't have the fire in his belly. Like in this case, I suppose we could just be a little bit more specific. Like Matt Boyd, you had an opportunity, came out, you were cruising, and the fourth inning, you just kind of fucking gave it all away. And then the offense, like we had no action on the bases on Sunday, like none. We had no action, you know. We tag him for three homers, and there's nobody there for it. Like, I think Alex Bregman got on in the first inning on a bad air, and like that's not a clean baseball team at all. We just can't get guys on base. So, again, don't want to overreact, but uh, I'd be remiss not to point out like one and two for the fourth straight year is kind of fucking ugly. Mahoney, what do you have that's ugly?
SPEAKER_01Also ugly is the fact that this is an easy cupcake schedule, Carl, and it is going to get pretty impossible here in short order. So it's not like it's well, there's a lot of average teams in major league baseball playing well. There's a lot of good teams, too, that we're gonna be seeing on the schedule coming up within the next few weeks.
SPEAKER_02Yeah, the top end of this isn't great. Like, Cleveland's always gonna play hard. I don't want to go into Cleveland. Obviously, it's cold. Like, Tampa's always gonna pitch well and run the bases hard and do all that shit. So, like, as soon as we turn around from Cleveland, we're back in Tampa, and it's shitty to go from a 12-10 game on a Sunday into a 3-10 game on a Monday. Like, you really want Monday night games. Obviously, you want Mondays off, but like if you're playing on Mondays, you want those Monday nighters, and the fact that we got to play a Monday day game uh against the Tampa Rays blows. We're probably gonna see Paul Skeens after that. Then we're in Philadelphia, we're playing the Mets, and we're home against the Phillies, then we're in Los Angeles, and we're in San Diego, then we're home against the fucking Diamondbacks.
SPEAKER_01You know, like that's really good squads. Okay.
SPEAKER_02Now we're lucky that this is coming early in the season before guys really figure out roles and guys emerge and establish themselves. We've made this argument before on the Monday morning cup show. I'd rather see great teams earlier in the season than see them later in the season. You know, I mean, there's a bunch of different ways you want to spin it. I guess this just comes back to like, yeah, blows we start one and two, and you know, if we're not gonna beat the cupcakes, like there's some there's some really good teams we're gonna be playing in the next couple weeks.
SPEAKER_01So yeah, no, that that's the thing too, and especially just with all the pop and circumstance around Bregman coming in and everything, it's just the last thing you want just because the expectations were ramped up, and then you know, you kind of put a stinker out there on the weekend, and it's not gonna get easier.
Reading Alex Bregman Early
SPEAKER_02Well, I was gonna say this, but I'm gonna bring it up now. Because you just said his name. And I love him, and I gotta get to I gotta get used to watching him play on my team. But Alex Bregman, there's two things early on. I'm like, I don't know about this. And the first is well, I'll start with the first thing. Yesterday the Cubs were losing in the six six three in the ninth inning, and they cut to the dugout, and Alex Bregman, who's two for four with two home runs, was all smiles and was trying to talk to Pete Crow Armstrong and Matt Shaw. I think Michael Bush was next to him, and the camera was zoned in on him for about 10 seconds, you know, five to ten seconds it was in the dugout, and Bregman was the only one smiling and laughing and trying to talk and being and engaged in the dugout. And I don't I'm this is me reading way too much into stuff. But we're down six, three at home, bottom nine. You are getting paid$35 million. I know you went two for four with two home runs today. Like, wipe that fucking smile off your face, buddy. I know that type of guy who's in a good mood because he's two for four, who's who's who's who's totally fine with the situation. And here's the messed up part personally and deep internally, Alex Bregman should feel good. He was two for four with two homers. But it's the manifestation. While the game was going on in the dugout, in those critical moments at the end of the smiling and the laughing and the bullshitting, where if Alex Bregman was 0 for 4, would he be smiling, laughing, bullshitting in the bottom of the ninth down three? No. I don't think so. And that was my first little taste of something I saw. And people can think I'm crazy. I am. But I've been around this game a long time. I have extremely trusted instincts when it comes to this stuff. I just hope he's not one of those guys that plays well and is okay with losing. I don't think he is. I don't think he is. But I saw a little glimpse of it, and I thought, if he's gonna be one of those guys who's okay with losing because he plays well, then I have to start scaling down just how much I love him. Because Dansby would never.
SPEAKER_01Yeah, no, I know what you mean. You don't want the guy who's just trying to light it up, you know, lighten up the mood when everyone else is in a shitty one in any circumstance. You know, especially in these with these professional ball players who have, you know, been around quite some time in that dugout and are trying to win a baseball game. Now, there's nothing wrong with positivity, and if you're feeling good about yourself, that's great. But you know, read the room.
SPEAKER_02Ball or strike, I could potentially be overreacting.
SPEAKER_01That's a strike, very much potentially overreacting. He might have just been trying to tell a joke that wasn't that fun.
SPEAKER_02Yep, you're right.
SPEAKER_01He gets a kick out of, dude.
SPEAKER_02There could have been, you know, like uh a fan ran on the field. There could it's there's so many things that could justify this.
SPEAKER_01He might be one of those dudes that smiles when he's uncomfortable and tries to make a joke. When there's uncomfortable, you know, in a uncomfortable situation, he just is has to laugh awkwardly. Guys are weird, guys are fucking weird, man.
SPEAKER_02But I'm just pointing this out because it's I have blown this guy ferociously. I mean, I deep throated him this for as long as I possibly could, and I don't, you know, I just don't want to keep giving away world-class blowjobs. If in my heart of hearts I'm seeing something, I'm going, wait a second. So I'm just introducing it to the maniacs. This isn't a serious red flag. I don't even know if we're putting a pin in it. I think it's just a casual observation that maybe Alex that Alex Bregman instinctually put upon me that he's somebody who's gonna put a smile on his face if things are uh are going well for him and not for the team. I don't think he's that guy.
SPEAKER_01No, but and plus, Carl, in your defense, now you do you have to give it both ways, right? Alex Bregman signed with the Cubs, and less than a minute later, you said he might be my favorite Chicago Cub of all time. So when you notice other things, you know, in being professional, you have to call him out. So we do appreciate it.
SPEAKER_02And here's the other thing this is significantly less serious. I'm gonna call it a lot of baby blue through the first two games. Um, just a lot, like baby blue, which started as like a Chris Bryant swoosh accent, you know, to like his Nike spikes or Adidas or something. It started off as like a very subtle thing Chris Bryant did, and now we have a whole sky blue color combination on Fridays, and Alex Bregman's like full sky blue, like sky blue, eye black, sky blue, everything, sky blue fucking logos on it, you know, like on his panties. Like this guy is full sky blue at all times, and then he comes out Sunday with yellow, yellow elbow guard, yellow spikes. I've I mean, this is crazy territory I've not seen. And the reason is because the cubs' uniform is so classic and traditional, like, even going to the baby blue was like that's a that was a huge reach for KB in the moment where people are like, damn, this guy swagged out. So now for Alex Bregman to be a guy who's wearing yellow in the batter spots, like, what are you fucking a Ronnie Acunia, buddy?
SPEAKER_01Come on, he could be trying to bring awareness to some sort of need out there, but none of which that we know of at this time. It was his third game suiting up. Maybe he's working on his personal color combinations to see what sticks out, what makes him feel the best. Maybe we're gonna be seeing yellow a little bit more. He had two dingers, you know. So he's just trying to test the waters and dip his toes and see what looks and helped him feel the best, you know, at Wrigley Field.
SPEAKER_02And this is why you listen to the Monday Morning Cub show. These are the type of insights I'm most comfortable delivering. You know, the color combination and the in the Evo Shield arm guard. Are you matching it with the spikes? The spikes were brighter than the Evo Shield, so he could have been caught off guard there. No decision, you know, like nothing you can do about that. Just trying to keep it light-hearted, Mahoney.
SPEAKER_01Well, one, if we're going to be talking fashion too, I will have to say Matthew Boyd's shoes, he had the Jordans look, his Jordan type spikes, they look phenomenal. So sick. Red shoes, too. Red shoes on a mound is it's like nasty.
SPEAKER_02Now, do we have to figure out is he a Jordan athlete or is he wearing Jordan shoes? Because those are two completely different things. There's only a handful of Jordan athletes in Major League Baseball.
SPEAKER_01I think he's just wearing the shoes for the look.
SPEAKER_02Like, I think Aaron Judge is a is a Jordan athlete.
SPEAKER_01Yeah, there's not there's really not many.
Nico Horner Extension And Team Building
SPEAKER_02I think CC Sabathia was was one, and there's an old great story of Yankees players pranking former Cub Clint Frazier into believing that like the Jordan company was interested in signing him. He's like, really? They're like, no, dude, you suck. Oh my god, that's evil. Evil. That's evil. Baseball can be a cruel place. It can also be a great place, and this is our next transition point because you want to talk about holy Toledo with a bag of money. Now we've kind of buried this for a second. Again, I'm just gonna reframe for people. Cubs are one and two. We have a game tonight in Cleveland. We're off Thursday. There's plenty of baseball we're gonna watch this week. Um, playing second base, Nico Horner on the contract extension. I speculated a hundred million dollars-ish, between 90 and 100-ish, five, six years, six years 141, 23 million dollars a season for Nico Horner. I think just based on where I estimated it and where it ended up being, then I have to. I don't have a choice but to say knee jerk, yeah, a little bit of an overpay, a little bit, you know, like a little, he's a good player, a little bit. That's a lot more than I anticipated. And if it's more than I anticipated, then I have to connect the dots and call it an overpay.
SPEAKER_01Yeah, overpay. I I do agree. I never would have seen 141 million coming anywhere within the league, let alone our organization going in Eco Horner. Losing in opening day and having them announce that afterwards without knowing anything or any of the scenario, knowing it was just six years, is such a breath of fresh air. Locking up Nico with the core right after the PCA news, all that's great. Now, 141 million, though, I did not see that coming in the least, dude. I mean, that's that's a lot of money for a second baseman, but then you're hearing now Jed talking about investment, they're looking to invest in this team, invest in the players. You're reading a lot about how Nico, like you know, epitomizes being a cub. He they were drafted him because this guy was just a total cub. He fits the mold, fits the like the atmosphere of Wrigley, a hard, you know, hard playing ball player, all that stuff. So love it for Nico. Didn't see 141, and either or that's not my money, so yeah, 50 million dollars for our middle infield is a lot of money.
SPEAKER_02It's 50 51 million dollars or something, and and the two guys will combine for less than 35 homers this year.
SPEAKER_01Maybe two months ago, we were talking about how this team doesn't spend. I know, and now they're spending, and it's like, well, a little too much for Nico there in a six-year deal. However, Carl, you did you answered a couple questions out on social, and I want to kind of have you explain this. But with the Nico deal, I saw it. I'm like, how does he get more than P Crow Armstrong? I see just a bigger upside, a younger player in P Crow Armstrong. So, why does Nico get more money? Well, you know, another six-year deal. I know he's been in the league. Can you just kind of mean and the maniacs?
SPEAKER_02The veteran status is probably the biggest part that Picrow Armstrong just doesn't have the service time. So he still has to go through arbitration, and there's limits on how much you can make in arbitration. So, like, there's just limits. Now, if you if you wanted to do a free market study and say who's more valuable, the two are going to come out way closer. Probably Pete's more valuable, like if we're just being dead honest, especially over the next six years. But where they're at, veteran status-wise, like Nico's already earned the right. He bought out his arbitration years, he bought out his first year of free agency when he signed his original extension with the Cubs, and he's knocking on the door for free agency going into next year, where Pete isn't even close to free agency in these free agent numbers. So, like they are kind of close and similar in that Pete's 115 and Nico's 141. Um, but just the way that the players, uh, the players union has negotiated through the collective bargaining agreement how they get paid. Like, Nico's just at a further point in his career where you're just always gonna get paid more. You're always gonna get paid a lot more. That said, Pete did get like a really just a really, I mean, it's a nice solid extension, especially when you consider how bad he was in the second half last year, that he can still come out after putting up just such a ridiculous slump at a critical time. So the broader part though with Nico Horner is that twenty for$23 million a year, which is the easiest way to explain it. Some years it's$22.5, some years it's$23.5. There's some deferrals in there, there's a five million dollar signing bonus. But if you're just having a casual conversation, you can just call it he's getting$23 million a year. Now, the Cubs are gonna have about$120 to$125 million come off the books next year. That's just like free, you know, what are we gonna do with this money? And so to have 23, to have about a 20% of that go right to Nico Horner, and then to have, you know, 18% of that go to Pete Crow Armstrong, where you're losing 15 players, they're taking a third of what they're losing and putting it into two guys. Well, those two guys are obviously very important. They're gonna play every day, they're gonna play up the middle, they're gonna be part of the core. But it says more to me about what they think about the young pitching that Cade Horton is not gonna get extended without a team-friendly thing. Um, obviously, you know, Jamison Tan's coming off the books, Shodi Imanaga's coming off the books, Colin Ray's not a huge deal, but you know, like his salary is not guaranteed for next year. Uh Matthew Boyd's coming off the books. So Eddie Cabrera is gonna be around in arbitration years. So they might think very highly of Eddie Cabrera, they might think very highly, obviously, of Jackson Wiggins. You could see, like, is Ben Brown a starter again? Because what we're doing with the payroll and saying if we're gonna lose 120 million dollars, and then we're gonna immediately plan to put you know, 40 million of that plus back into Pete Carl Armstrong and Nico Horner right away, then like the remaining 80 million dollars. You know, now we're starting to get a little like where are we gonna refill this pitching? And it sounds like you know, we have high expectations for the pitching that we currently have. So I don't, I you know, this is me reading too much into this. I could go for another 25 minutes about reading too much into this, but it does tell me where the direction of the pitching's going based on the fact that they're locking up these two guys.
SPEAKER_01Yeah, and that said, now it was maybe six months ago. The only person we knew that was going to be on the team long term was Dansby Swanson. You do have to love the fact that they locked down the entire infield and their superstar center fielder and PCA, and we don't have to worry about any of those major changes over the next, I mean, until 2030 or 2029 at the earliest. So that for me has been just phenomenal stuff in the trust of the front office. And they've mentioned investing and then actually investing in a core. We now have a core we can move forward forward and design around, you know, beyond. But I'm I am getting too far ahead of myself too because it's just not it's a nice to have. But you now go ahead. Sorry.
SPEAKER_02Well, you're bringing up the right stuff. We talked about Nico Horner on the Friday show, but didn't have the contract details, and the contract details actually blew fucking my tits off my chest, right? To just be dead honest with you. Yeah, it's a yeah, it's a lot of money. So the takeaways that are positive through this, you're right. Up the middle, we have the best up the middle defense, and we'll have guaranteed the best up the middle defense for the next 800 fucking games the Chicago Cubs play. There won't be a team in major league baseball that has stronger up the middle between second base, shortstop, and center field than the Chicago Cubs. That's a without without a miracle happening, the Cubs will have, without a doubt, the best in the National League. And like certainly, I mean, again, there'd have to be a miracle for a team to assemble a better triangle of defenders between short steps, second base, and center field. And that's a huge thing with the Cubs with the run prevention stuff. If they keep under six, if they allow the opponent to score less than 600 runs over the course of an entire season, they are guaranteed to go to the playoffs in the history of this organization. If they give up less than 600 runs, they are guaranteed to go to the playoffs. And so I think it's like obviously when you talk about giving up runs, your focus goes towards the pitching staff and having shutdown pitching. But the Cubs are not a strikeout dominant organization, and it's not what they've been under Tommy Hotovy. And a perfect example would be Cade Horton, who has strikeout stuff, but they've developed him into being a contact first, use the zone, all this stuff, all this stuff that generates weak contact and allows him to throw 75 fucking pitches into the seventh inning of a major league game. I know. Are you kidding me? In a 2020 in 2026, and so seeing what they're doing with Kate Orton, where they could Tommy Hotovy and Zombro and these guys could be developing Kate Horton and saying, No, dude, you need to be an eight to nine strikeout per fucking six inning guy. We want you in the 11 to 12 strikeouts per nine innings category. You need to be dominant, you need to be dominant this way. They're shifting them and saying we need you to be dominant in the weak contact. And the reason you can do that is when you turn around, you look at Nico Horner at second base, Dancy Swanson at fucking short, Pete up the middle. Makes it very easy. Makes it very easy to pitch to contact and to tell the rest of your pitchers, hey, you don't need to be chasing strikeouts with two strikes, you could be just more trying to induce weak contact, which is a completely different shift in the mentality as a pitcher. And the best analogy I could give would be a quarterback on third down. Go ahead, force that ball, force the ball in the window, look downfield, go right ahead. Okay. There's nothing but truck when, like, quite literally, there is a guaranteed first down in front of you. Will you look for that? Or are you gonna be taking a seven-step drop? I'm in the NFL, I gotta fucking pump this thing in the window, or are you gonna be a guy who's gonna let shit come to you? And those are obviously the best quarterbacks in the game, no question about it. So that's how I compare it to a pitcher.
SPEAKER_01Yeah, no, that's that's perfectly said, and the philosophy of the Cubs does seem to be pitching to that weak contact. You do not have to overpower batters given the folks that are behind you, and that's when guys start to force stuff, I think, do and run into bats. So I think that they're bringing Kate Horton along perfectly if this if that is the philosophy, which it very much seems to be the case.
SPEAKER_02Last defense point here on Nico Horner. I did say overpay, and again, that just going from the fact that like when I speculated, I said around 100 million, then it comes out 140. So, like, but I there's no way I can come back now and say, like, well, it's not an over 100 million, then it'd sound like a moron. But just rationalizing my way into it, if he is gonna be a five to six war player consistently at second base, then he's worth that money. I mean, that's just the easiest way to do it. Like, if you're a five plus war player, you're worth that money. Now he's shown to be a six war player, which is like now you're worth all now. It's an underpass. We're gonna do that. Yeah, you're top ten, top five ball players in the league. But we're balancing this thing with Nico is like, is he getting better? Is he? Is it can he get better? And part of me says yes. Is Nico Horner as is this is as good as he's going to be, and he's this is who he's gonna be for the next couple years. Part of me says yes to that, and then there's a part of me that's like, is he gonna regress? Because if you don't hit the ball in the ballpark, like people are gonna catch your line drives, and it's gonna happen. He hit the ball on the screws a couple times in opening weekend, and you know, data shifting, having guys play like straight up on second base. You know, there's a couple things there with Nico where I'm not really sure where he goes from the time he signs his contract, but ultimately you got to trust Jed Hoyer, you got to trust the front office. That and you have to fucking trust the fact Nico Horner's been awesome for us. He's starting to shortstop the second, like he's just been awesome for us. So we've bitch about Tom Rickett's not cutting checks, finally cuts a check. Who do they extend? They extend a guy who's there every single day, wants to play 162, five plus war player, critical part of the defensive infrastructure. Like, I'd be out of my mind to complain about it, but I am just at the same time acknowledging here's why I originally classified it or would say it is an overpay. And here's why it's not, and here's why it's not, though, at the end of the day.
SPEAKER_01Yeah, and if if Nico doesn't regress, doesn't get better, stays the player that he is, I'm perfectly fine with that.
SPEAKER_0223 million dollars, 23 million a year. It's weird to go from like we don't spend any money on anybody, we don't extend anybody. It's crazy fucking Anthony Rizzo got seven million. Yeah, dude, that's that's wild. Wild. Like if oh the poor guy, you know, and then they got to bring him back for the ambassador stuff. He's gonna I cannot begin to tell you how much it personally bothers him that he never got a hundred million dollars from the Cubs. That's like it'll I mean, it'll he can do all the ambassador stuff he wants. I know for a fact that it kills him, and so now he's showing up to like these hey, can you show up to the you know where the season ticket holder greeting and you know make a quick 20-minute speech and put on the cubs lapel thing and all these got to do all this ambassador stuff in the meantime? He's like looking at Nico Warner, hasn't no offense, hasn't won shit comparatively to Anthony Rizzo, doesn't hit home runs. You know, Rizzo's got a time when like there was Javi Baez went home with a jammed thumb, went home to Puerto Rico with like two weeks left in the season, like we'll just went home with a jammed finger, wasn't even fucking broken, just was hurt, and Rizzo had like a grade three ankle sprain and was taking shots, you know, whatever quarter zone shots, tetrazal shots, whatever the fuck it is, uh, and leading off and like would not come out of the game. And uh that introduced some strife into the Cubs Clubhouse as far as like being a leader, having some balls, playing, you know. I'm just thinking about all the players that we've wanted to extend and stuff, and like fuck 140 million to Nico. Congratulations to Nico. I hope it's a sign that the Cubs are where they should be as far as spending a lot of money on players.
SPEAKER_01Yeah, it's a beautiful thing. Carl, you want to get into some round table discussion?
Roundtable On Shota And Catchers
SPEAKER_02It's time, it's time. Let's keep this. This is a nice tight episode, and this is what we're gonna be doing with two episodes a week now. So let's just close out with some round table stuff. First off, Shoda looked fine. People bitch nonstop about Shoda offseason, shouldn't pick up his qualifying offer. I know Cap hates his fucking guts, and that's fine. Cap's entitled to hate his guts. There's a lot of people who don't want to see Shoda Imanaga pitch and think it was a mistake for him to come back. I thought he looked fine, but for like here's one or two pitches I would have liked differently. Um, so just Shoda watch stuff. I think he looked fine.
SPEAKER_01Yeah, he mean he was striking out batters early, similar to the Boyd start, and then ran into one. You know, it wasn't the worst pitch, as you had mentioned earlier on in the opener, but the fact there's two runners on and that just sucked. So I'm not overly concerned about Shoda. I wanted to come out and see him get a win right off the bat just for that confidence aspect of things. However, it didn't happen. He looked fine. We'll continue to monitor the situation. I still feel pretty good about Shoda based off of what we saw in spring training, and now I'm just gonna hope those home run balls come down a bit.
SPEAKER_02Yeah, like what I like Alex Cohen put it perfectly, his whiffs are way up. Like I thought I thought I saw some good whiffs, and that's something you haven't seen historically from Showdays the whiff. So, like he might be still tinkering and making some adjustments, added 15 pounds of muscle to his lower half, you know. So, like, keep your eyes peeled on that as far as like he could have a good first half. I think he looked fine. And if you're somebody who hates his guts, just take a deep breath. Okay. So that's the first thing in the round table. Here's number two. Is Miguel Amaya a better catcher than Carson Kelly? Like, is my is Miguel Amaya a better threat than Carson Kelly? And the reason I asked is because when Miguel Amaya played, they hit him nine and they're hitting Carson Kelly six. And I just still have this taste in my mouth of like Carson Kelly was hot last year for a little bit. Like, are we are we still riding this hot hand? I don't know. What do you think of the catching position right now?
SPEAKER_01So I mean, Miguel Omaya to me is a more explosive offensive player. And I do think it comes down to that ultimate cliche of if he stays healthy, I think he's our guy, you know, long term over Carson Kelly. And I mean long term, more games catching in the season than Carson Kelly does. So that's kind of how I feel about Miguel O'Maya. I wanted to, it's almost a missed opportunity too, because I wanted to talk about him really and some of the predictions. I do feel like he's good when if he's healthy, he's going to be a force to be reckoned with on the offensive side of things. Now, in terms of calling a game, I have no idea if he's better or worse than Carson Kelly behind the plate. So that was just kind of my thought about Miguel Amaya. I like him better in the lineup, and that's just how I feel about it right now.
SPEAKER_02Well, they have him catching Kate Horton, right? So, like, I don't think there's that big of a discrepancy between the game he's gonna call with Carson Kelly. Now, there's there Carson Kelly's gonna know more and have more experience, but as far as receiving and familiarity and the relationship with the pitcher, I'm sure guys like um you know Amaya Plenty. I'm sure they do. I like what you're saying, if healthy, if healthy, if healthy. And we just have to attach that with Amaya because my take is that if he is healthy, he's our most underrated player. He is so passionate and dialed, and he's like a less muscular version of Wilson Contreras to me, as far as like that dude just wants it so bad, and he wants to be the guy in the field, he wants to be the captain of the defense and lead the team and be out there again. It's just like if he's healthy and he looks healthy, looks great, makes me feel very comfortable to have a a tan a catching tandem like this, but I just don't want to see where Carson Kelly gets a hundred starts and Miguel O'Maya gets 62 starts. Like, I like what you're saying at the end of the year in the long term. Can we look back and like is Miguel Omaya get more playing time? It's usually without any injury concerns here between the two catchers. If Amaya ends up with more playing time with cart than Carson Kelly, it's because he's completely outplayed him throughout the course of the year.
SPEAKER_01And another huge the big strangest question mark for me is why is Carson Kelly batten six and Miguel Omaya's nine? Because that is that's a bit odd to me for now.
SPEAKER_02Yeah, I don't think Carson Kelly's a better hitter than Danzmy Swanson. I hope people don't like that, you know. And so we we have more we should have gotten into today. I like the Matt Shaw stuff in right field, like they're he's just a right fielder now. That's great. Like, here you go, right field. Meanwhile, Owen Casey's got a 1500 OPS. That's hilarious. Just hilarious how good.
SPEAKER_01Walk off thinger, looks so happy, like you know, surrounded by his powder blue, or you know, that Marlin blue teammates, his his red hair popping. It's like Eddie Cabrera better be good.
unknownYeah, I know.
SPEAKER_02That's what I'm thinking. Uh, just last two things on the round table. I will we extend Bush, is what people are saying. My answer to that's probably not, you know, unless he's taking a super friendly deal. 29-year-old first baseman, 30-year-old first baseman, like just settling into being an everyday player. I shouldn't say just settling in. This is his third year of being an everyday player. He's very good, very underrated, but like now's not the time you extend that guy at all.
SPEAKER_01No, I don't think you extend him. I feel like he's the odd man out here with like you know, the extension surprises. So I don't see that happening.
SPEAKER_02And you can tell the money with the Cubs is very much gonna go into the dynamic players. Like, you know, Negle Horner plays 162 consistently, steals bases, plays elite defense. Pete Armstrong checks a lot of boxes, right? Like Michael Bush, as far as a first baseman, he's he's underrated, but there's guys that hit and play first base, they're all over professional baseball, they're all in not to take anything away from Michael Bush, but like we found him in a trade. You know, we found him in a trade for single A players. Like I would trust Jed, you know, if and when the time comes, if we have to replace Michael Bush, it could be years from now, and however that comes out, but like you're not looking at Michael Bush as like, ooh, this guy's gonna be really hard to replace. PCA, that's a nearly impossible guy to replace. Nico Horner, nearly impossible guy to replace. Michael Bush, I like him a lot, but we're just not gonna put him in that extension conversation. And as I say that, the Cubs could be extending him right now, you know. Like that they they could be fucking signing the deal right now, Mohan.
Wrap Up And Listener Requests
SPEAKER_01Right. No, I mean, news has broken almost right when we have ended record since you know this season started getting heating up.
SPEAKER_02Are we mad at anyone else after opening day? Is there anything else you want to get off your chest?
SPEAKER_01Anything that like let me take a quick glance at my notes here, Carl. Am I mad? No, I'm not mad at anybody else, to be quite honest. Um, I'm not really all that mad anyway. You know, I think life is good. I think the Cubs are gonna still be good this year. I hate starting one and two again, but here we are. Them's the breaks, and let's have a season, man. It's a long, long year. All right, we're three games under our belt and 159 to go.
SPEAKER_02We got a game tonight, you know. When I say tonight, I should say um, I'll be specific. Yeah, we have a game tonight. Eddie Cabrera's making his first start for the Cubs. Super excited to watch where it's going. No, I'm not carrying hate in my heart this year. It's gonna take an extreme set of circumstances for that. I'm just excited that we get more baseball to watch. See Craig uses bullpen, you know. So got a little taste of the way he was gonna use Phil Maiton this weekend. Don't want to spend too much time on that in this show. Um, just some stuff you're filling in the blanks is like here's how the team's shaping up the storylines going on the year. Diasteros looks like he's just gonna be DH'ing every day hitting seventh. I love it. I think he's gonna get way better. I like his style. You know, there's a lot of stuff that I like, but all the negativity we got out of the way. So I feel good going into this week. I really do. I feel good going into this week, knowing we're gonna have a I'm gonna have a great Friday show out too uh that gets into the weekend and stuff. So if there's stuff you guys want me to answer or address specifically, obviously just send that on Twitter. I'll I'll we'll we'll do we'll do a fucking grab bag.
SPEAKER_01It's almost too easy. Yeah, guys, don't forget, tune in on Friday's show, and from there, we'll be back with you next Monday and go Cubs.
SPEAKER_02Go Cubs, and make sure you leave a five star review. Make sure you leave a five star review, make sure you leave a five-star review. Until then, God bless. Go cubs, and it's a good one.