The Cubs Can Win 100 Games If The Plan Holds

19-12 changes the tone, even if you are scared to admit it. We are past the point where every Cubs fan conversation has to start with what might go wrong, because the last few weeks look like a team playing with real authority. So we take the big question head-on: are we ready to recalibrate from a 96-win hope to a 100-win expectation, and start talking like an NLCS contender instead of a pleasant surprise?

The Justin Steele setback is the gut punch, and we do not dodge it. We talk through what a rehab setback means in the real world, why blaming the Cubs training staff is too easy, and why the right move is patience rather than a panic trade. The rotation still has paths to “good enough” through May if the offense keeps thumping and the defense keeps turning contact into outs.

Then we get into the part that actually decides October: the trade deadline plan. We lay out why calling up every hot Triple-A name is not the answer, how guys like Pedro Ramirez and Kevin Alcantara fit better as trade chips, and why stashing prospects can increase value when the market finally sets. We also check the lineup spot by spot, explain why there are no obvious everyday holes, and spend real time on the bullpen, including why Ben Brown’s pitch mix and mindset shift could turn a messy April into a huge September advantage.

If you want smarter Cubs takes you can use at the bar, with your group chat, or in your next trade debate, hit play, subscribe, share this with a fellow Cubs fan, and leave us a review on Spotify or Apple.

Thanks for tuning in! 

- Carl & Mahoney

Transcript

Welcome Back And Off Day Vibes

SPEAKER_00 0:03

Good morning, good afternoon, and evening Chicago Cubs fans, and welcome back to the Monday Morning Cubs Show. Today is Thursday, April 30th. It is your host, Carl. This is our last show of the month. Give yourself a round of applause if you stuck it out the whole month. The Chicago Cubs are 19 and 12. This is our second episode of the week. It's an off day today. Hopefully, everybody had an opportunity to do whatever it is you do on an off day. If you're a 162er, if you're and when I say 162er, I think 145 plus puts you into the category where you can say you're a 162er. Like I don't want to be too hard and firm on this, and I don't want to piss off 162ers when I say this. Obviously, I'm talking about guys that watch all 162. But I think if you're at the 145 mark, you know, there's stuff, there's family stuff, people have jobs. But it my point is if you're in that mode, we're in that mode. I'm obviously in the mode, baby. I'm obviously in it. Um, you know, you get an off day, take advantage of it. Do some laundry, go fishing, you know, go shopping for groceries or other things, other things that you may enjoy. So, you know, some personal items, toiletries, maybe stuff that you've neglected. I don't, I don't know. I don't know what you have to do, but hopefully you've enjoyed today's off day. That's a mouthful of an introduction. I want to welcome everybody back to the show. Cubs are 19 and 12. We'll talk a little bit about that. Are we gonna change our expectations from the season? I said 96 wins. Okay. If you haven't noticed, this is a solo show. I now now what do I owe you guys? An interview and a half? Who's keeping track of this? You know, we had CB on the last show. That's a close personal friend. And I think I might start mixing that in more. A little bit more CB, a little bit more Jake. Uh, you know, who was on with us for our hundredth episode, close personal friend. You know, people that I trust and value would like to get some maniacs on. I think we need to do a maniac of the month. I think that might be coming Monday. Keep your eyes peeled for that. Uh, some other important announcements here is that obviously, one, we're a good baseball team. I'm gonna get into some other announcements. But we, you know, tap dance around early in the season. Yeah, I'm mad we're six and nine, or six and eight, or seven and nine, or whatever that was. Of course I'm mad about that. And why? Well, now that we're 19 and 12. I mean, you want to see a team play with some authority 13 and three over the last 16, which looked like a gauntlet in the offseason. They released the schedule in Philadelphia, home against the Mets, then the Phillies come to town, then six games on the West Coast. It's real easy to take a look at that and go, please don't go three and thirteen. We went 13 and 3. It's very easy in the offseason to look at that and be like, oh no, May could be an urgent month. Hmm. Now we weren't necessarily that pessimistic, but then if I told you no Cade Horton, Matt Boyd's gonna be on the I. L, Bullpen's gonna be trash slash non-existent, you know, maybe maybe not trash in the collective, but certainly underwhelming, and a lot of individuals have been trash. So, you know, 19 and 12, this is a really solid ball club, and it's just getting better, it's come together, it's tighter. You know, say Suzuki coming back in the lineup. I hope feet people really feel and see the impact that has just on everybody. Moves people down, makes people more comfortable. You know, so we got some stuff we'll talk about. I'm gonna go through each individual guy, give you guys some takes on each individual position player so far. I have like a mailbag on my head of some questions I want to get to. You know, obviously, I suppose we could still we should start with Justin Steele as the leader of the team, but I'm not gonna say another word on the show. Not another word, not another filthy word until we talk about all bite no rattle Mexican-style soda. Guys, it's the sponsor, the title sponsor of the Monday Morning Cub show of lineup previews, basically of all the content now that I do. A non-alcoholic Mexican-style soda with the signature spicy finish that's known as Thirsty Vaquero. It's got a website. You can go to the website if you want. We like shipping on Amazon, to be honest with you, because the delivery is reliable, it's fast, it's secure, prime, easy checkout, door-to-door, you know, not hard at all to throw it in the cart. If we're being honest, it would probably be one of the easier things you'd have to do today on this off day. You know, would you rather fold laundry or just throw, just throw a cart, you know, a 12-pack of Thirsty Vacero in the cart and then ask bash-year-old lady to fold the laundry and say, I'll get you Mexican-style soda with the signature spicy finish, a little mango muerte, a Lamon Ladrome out doing yard work. You got a sweat. I think the habanero and the mango muerte pair is this is got the most kick. I think people reach for the watermelon. I think I think people have a reason and an argument for all three bold flavors. I would ask you guys to check this stuff out. They are exploding. They just walk into rooms, they pour a little bit into a glass, they go, just have a sip of this and tell us what you think. And people go, How do we get more of this? We want more, more. Have you seen Men in Black? He's sitting there eating the sugar water. I always thought that was Vincent D'Nofriel. It's not. That actor is not Vincent D'Nofrio. If you've ever made that mistake when reflected on Men in Black, let me just let me be your friend. Let's talk for a second. But he's sitting at the table, you know what I'm talking about? More, more. And he's putting the sugar in the water. That's how I am with Thirsty Vicero. Except it's got like half as many sugars as it can of Coca-Cola. I shouldn't even say that. That's how you get assassinated in this world. You start talking about big soda. I'm talking about a Mexican-style soda, my friends, with the signature spicy finish. And and when I say at the start of this, I owe you guys an interview or two, you know, at this point, I'm gonna give you guys the the all bite, no rattle, non-beverage, uh, non-alcoholic beverage industry insight podcast one of these days. I'll get the thirst of a carrow guy's on. I'll do it. Don't make me do it. Gone to my head, I'll do it. Hour and a half. We'll talk beverage. How long is this ad read? No, it means a lot to me. It'll be as long as I choose. So, really trying to keep the F words down, got a counter back the other day. I saw 89 in our 100th episode. So, you know, that's that's tough. That's a tough counter. So we're gonna try and keep it clean here. Uh, but I gotta be fucking honest with you guys. I think we can win 100 games. And that wasn't planned either. So now we're on the board. Now we're on the board. Now we gotta stay, we gotta keep that number down. Okay, so at 19 and 12 through 31, Cubs are on pace for 99.3 wins. Now, if you consider that in the start of the season we went six and eight through our first 14, let's back our way into this and say we're 13 and what? We're 13 and 4 since that moment. So at that rate, you know, like I know this is a ridiculous thing to say, but that's like 125 win pace. That's what the Cubs have played over their last 17. Now, that's obviously completely ridiculous and unrealistic. They're not gonna win one. Are they? Are they? Are they, Bob? Maybe no. Uh what I'm saying is can we recalibrate our expectations and say, yeah, no, we I don't know about run away with the division because there's some good competition, you know, that we still haven't even like remotely played or scratched yet. But can we reframe this and maybe tone down the rhetoric around the Dodgers? Can we tone down some of the rhetoric about the woe is meep bullshit? And are we willing as cousins to put ourselves in the category as a tier one National League team right now? I am. I'll I'll get to the pitching staff. We're gonna get to Justin Steele. You know, that's a fair place to take this. But I'm just that's an important point. Are we are is everybody in alignment with this? Maniacs. Yes. That as of today, April 30th, going into the month of May, we are people go, what do you want? I want to go to the NLCS. Obviously, I I would like to be the number one seed in the National League. I'd like to get some healthy pitching back. I'd like our bullpen to step up and not not be awful. I'd like to get Daniel Palency back. You know, there's a lot of things we'd like to see. And of course, there's tons of we'll get to this with the this fake mailbag I have in my head. You know, baller strike. We're gonna be aggressive at the trade deadline. Biggest fucking strike I've said in like months. This last year, when we went after Michael Siroka, will be a drop in the bucket compared to what I expect at this trade deadline. And this is why retroactively you're gonna feel like an idiot for all the complaining we've done about trade deadlines, because this is we're gonna make some moves this year. I'll guarantee you that. We are gonna be making moves. So I know there's a lot of antsy people out there because there's now a setback with Justin Steele. So let's get to the Justin Steele stuff. And people are antsy because now he's out till post, he's second half guy, and this is something Mahoney and I kind of teased in the offseason. We talked about Justin Steele chip on a shoulder coming back. Um, maybe I did you guys a disservice and not necessarily talking around about how competitive Justin Steele is and maybe some of the negative impacts that could potentially have on a rehab process. I don't know. I don't know what the setback necessarily is, um, medically speaking. So I don't, I don't sculptor UCL, obviously the guy had Tommy John surgery. Obviously, arm is you know in a delicate situation. Now he's cleared. That's what we saw in February. He's cleared the return of the mound. People are saying when's Justin Steele coming back, and a lot of the dialogue around that is we need him back soon, we need him back fast. How much does the Cade Horton injury impact this? Is it tied together? Where then Justin Steele's like, shit, I gotta get back there now. You know, we joked around about that, like, oh, he's gonna be coming back sooner. Um, you know, the reality is like we're you know, they're athletes, they get hurt. This is just a it's an awful shitty situation to have a setback in rehab. You know, the insight that I would try and draw from this is like, is there a connection between Matt Boyd going to the IL, Cade Horton going to the I. L, obviously out for the season, and how competitive Justin Steele is. Is he pushing himself harder in rehab? Now, I don't think the Cubs are pushing them harder. I'd like to put in squash the narrative that you know the Cubs training staff blows. Last year there was no time on the aisle or limited time on the aisle, I should say. This is an organization, the pitch lab celebrated. We like the pitching development, so you have to pick one or the other. And so now that we see a string of injuries, a rash, some would say, of injuries, you know, I do think it's unfair to then turn around and be like, oh, the training staff blows. I do think it's it's more of a part of the modern game. Now, specifically as it relates to Justin Steele, the little part that's more frustrating about this is it's a controlled rehabilitation environment where the trainers have ultimate final say. You know, the trainer isn't on the mound with Daniel Plenzi in the night. They ain't going, hey, you can't throw this one 102. You got to take a little off. You know, the trainers stay the trainers are standing behind the L screen with Justin Steele's. He's doing his shit. I shouldn't say it necessarily like that, but there's more of a hands-on relationship there. So if you want to be frustrated, I I would just draw a line there. You don't have to blanketly say, like, our training staff sucks. I don't think that's the case. I actually I think the Cubs are like, do they do a pretty good job? I think it's just injuries happen baseball, especially with the way guys just train themselves and what they're trying to do. But we want to be specific about the Justin Steele thing. It sucks because it's a setback. Now, what does this mean for the team-building atmosphere? You know, we wanted him back as soon as he gets back in the clubs. He's a just a great vibe and a good leader and a competitor. He doesn't take shit from people. And I don't mean that like he isn't when he says I say he doesn't take shit from people, like he shows up to win. He has the attitude of, I want to win. I want to beat these guys. I want them to leave here losers, I want to leave your winner. Which you may think every player in baseball is like that. It's not the case at all. Just listen to the rhetoric around Alex Bregman versus Kyle Tucker. Rick Sutcliffe talking about God bless Rick Sutcliffe on these broadcasts. But Rick Sutcliffe talking about all Kyle Tucker wants to do is, you know, go play video games on his computer. All Bregman wants to do is talk to his teammates about hitting. They're two completely different guys. You know, I'm putting Justin Steele in that similar category as far as it goes to adding the clubhouse to the pitching staff mentality. He's a different beast. You know, he wants to compete. So that's the personally disappointing part because the mix that he has, like, I think he just makes everybody else a little bit better. He makes you walk a little bit lighter, he's a good leader, he's a good person to have around. So, like, there's that. Obviously, he's a great fucking pitcher, too. And I love that he said it in his statement. He thinks he's one of the best pitchers in the world. You better believe that. Now we've criticized Ben Brown extensively on the show. In those criticisms, I would say that guy never ever felt that way about himself. We'll get to Ben Brown later. He's been good lately. How good was he against the Padres? There's a reason for that. So just as it pertains to Justin Steele now, are does it mean we have to be aggressive right now? No. We don't at all. We don't have to go make a trade right now at all. We absolutely will make a trade. And I would say the states are very high for us to make the biggest trade that we should make in a long time for starting pitching. And it could be really exciting to see us add another. I would say like we could clear the farm out and go get. Now, this is where it's going to be tricky for me naming names. You know, obviously, I watch Sandy Alcantara. Don't say that name on this podcast. Nobody be bringing Sandy Alcantara news to me. I don't give a I don't give it about him. You know, I said Joe Ryan on the last show, that's all the name dropping we're gonna be doing on starting pitching right now in this episode. What I'm talking about is a big move for starting pitching, and that's stuff we got to get excited about. That's stuff we need to be thinking about. And and as it pertains to Justin Steele's injury, I would be, you know, remiss if I didn't stress patience with this as we talk about rebuilding the pitching staff. Well, what are we gonna do? We don't have Justin Steele. Well, Jamison Tayan's got the 12th best ERA over the last two and a half seasons, I believe. Uh, for any starting pitcher that's thrown at least 400 innings, three and a half seasons. The last three and a half seasons of all starting pitchers that have thrown at least 400 innings. I saw that I wish I could credit. So who has this? Brad Taylor tweeted this out today. Michael Sarammi, one of the Bleacher Nation boys. Somebody tweeted it out. I'll give them both credit. I like both those guys. But my point is that when when you're talking about we don't have pitching, it's like Jamison Tan's hit the 12th best ERA over the last three and a half seasons. He's elite in day games. Just shut you down. Matthew Boyd has our highest ERA in the starting rotation. Does anybody care? No, he's got monster swing and miss stuff this year. Shoty Iminaga's been good. You know, is Callin Ray could be good enough. I'm not gonna judge him because he got it shitrocked against the Dodgers. You know, we might have guys who are good enough. It's it's it's is it good enough to get us to June? Well, the offense is very good, guys. The offense is sensational. It's a team that will just put up runs over an extended period of time. And this is part of the reason why you're frustrated through the four first 14 games this season, but it's also part of the reason why we said just wait till Say gets back. Wait till Biasteros, wait till my son, Moises Biasteros, gets going, who is my son. I am a proud father. He is my fat Venezuelan son. And if you guys say mean things about him, I'll take it personally. It'll hurt my feelings. I know he's chubby, he's got that fucking fat ass, a big, fat, juicy Venezuelan ass jogging around the bases looks so good. We're not trading him. But people are just generally insane, we gotta, what's the move? We gotta make a move. Well, there's a number of reasons we've talked about before on the show on why like it's just not gonna happen right now. I would be stunned, I should say. So let's transition to our next talking point, which is I want to talk about right now the integration of minor league baseball players into our day-to-day, and then we'll get into the rest of the position players. But a big name that's come up, I shouldn't say big, but you hear it all the time now. Pedro Ramirez, who's playing third base for the Iowa Cubs, has been awesome hitting 308. People are, why don't we bring him up? You know, why is Nikki Lopez playing? The the best thing we could have is this guy turns into a superstar, that he's awesome, and we can trade him at the trade deadline. That he's it puts up a monster, I want monster minor league season from him. Or people are bitching. Where's Kevin? Where's Kevin El Cantera? Kevin Elcantara has almost a 45% strikeout rate. No, what is it, 40, 38 strikeout rate in triple A? You know, we got to see him. We got to bring up the Jaguars. Got nine home runs. Yes, he does have he does have a 560 slug in AAA right now. He also has a ton of strikeouts. You know what we'd like to see ideally as it pertains to this team being good and successful right here in the moment. I'll just go down the list. I want Alcantara to hit as many home runs as possible. I would love Pedro uh Ramirez to be awesome. I would love James Triantos to turn out to be the hit for more power. You know, 309, 350 on base. It's it's how great is that to see? Jonathan Long, I would love you to be healthy. I would love you to drive the shit out of the baseball. I want as many guys as possible so that when the trade deadline rolls around, and I don't need to be, we don't need to be messing around with Pedro Ramirez's big league service time. Keep these guys down in triple A, stash them, let him rack up the stats, you know, let them put the tape together. Because at the end of the day, there's absolutely zero future at the big league level with the Chicago Cubs if you're an infielder. I should have opened with this. Where in what world is Pedro Ramirez going to get meaningful playing time? We have we have four amazing infield for three infield spots. By the way, for all three infield spots are locked up for the next four or five years at a combined. We're spending like a hundred million dollars. No, we're spending 88, 90 million dollars on these three infield spots, and then we have Matt Shaw backing it up. So the logical thing would be the fifth infielder in this equation should be a guy like Nikki Lopez, who has 10 years of big league experience, who can roll out of bed, play all three positions. You know, it doesn't strike out a ton. I know people there's obviously you're gonna point to him and say there's flaws in this game if you're gonna compare him to Nico Horner. But if you're talking about a fifth infielder, which is like a position in Major League Baseball, a guy who can sit for six days in a row and then go out and play a competent game and like for you, maybe not be as good as Nico Horner, obviously. So, like, that's the role is that fifth infielder role that Nikki Lopez is taking on. And I've just seen chatter where people are like, this makes me sick. We need to bring this guy up, we need to bring this guy up. You know, we're recording the show on Thursday, April 30th. I'm not talking, let's let's talk in late May, you know, early June. And and you just need the time to accumulate to understand, you know, who do we want to trade? And I'm not inclined. If we flag a guy, we go, this is it, this is somebody Pedro Ramirez is the example I'm gonna use because he's now he's cracking into this conversation. Is he a top hundred prospect? You know, I perfect. Build the mystique, tell the story, let the scouts come and see him. He's awesome. I am not inclined to give him any big league tape at all, because it could potentially devalue him at the trade deadline. And what I'm trying to do is say I'm taking a primary focus at the farm system this year. I the only thing I care about is who can we trade at the trade deadline now for starting pitching? And if you've followed me for years, you know this is a major departure from how I've talked about trade deadlines for a long time. But it's like you don't want to be all in unless you have that roster, you have that mixture in the chemistry in the team where you're like, it's time to go all in. Did we have that last year? You know, I I don't think so. You know, it could be some hindsight there. I know the price tag for Eddie Cabrera last year at the trade dying line was a lot higher than Owen Casey. So we're not, I mean, not an ideal spot for starting pitching in the long run. We definitely need to add to it. But what I'm trying to do is just integrate the way we look at our minor leaguers and the way we're gonna try and replace Justin Steele and the way we think about our starting pitching in general. We are gonna have to be patient. We are gonna have to put more emphasis on the bat in order to create more runs. But the other nice thing about this is we have it's just such a good defense, and so that should encourage these unproven arms. You know, you're a triple A guy, you're on the big league club. It's like, hey, you're making your big league debut, you have one of the best big league defenses the Cubs have put together in like I ever you've won the Cubs have been around for what 145 years. Here's one of the best defenses they've ever put out there. Nice time to make your big league debut, huh? Dansby Swanson behind you, you know. Ian Haps, four gold gloves in left field. It should that should encourage and incite some more um, you know, belief to pitch the contact. And now we're kind of getting away from the point because this had originally started with talking about Justin Steele's injury replacing Justin Steele and just the overall general impact you know that has. And I'm telling us, like, A, we be I mean, as fans, we have no control over this, but my insight or my approach to this is we're the month of May, we're gonna have to hang some runs. We're gonna have to bang them a little bit. We're gonna have to give run support to Colin Ray and Javier Assad, which I would expect. But they're professionals. These guys have been fine for us. Now, if we started a series tomorrow, you know, and I even even I've hardly even said Eddie Kavrera's name. You know, if we started a series tomorrow, like, no, we don't have, you know, elite pitching in the National League, but we don't start the playoffs tomorrow. So I don't give a shit. What we have is a great lineup, and I think that lineup is gonna thump through May, and I think it's gonna be only warming up. So everyone take a deep breath. A lot of people freaking out about losing Justin Steele. A lot of people want to make a move right now, a lot of people want to name names. I'm much more inclined again as we package this up. Let our minor leaguers continue to put up tape. Let us build some marketable. Yeah, if Pedro Ramirez cracks in the top 100, like fucking six to midnight. Are you kidding me? Perfect. There's there's a big piece of whatever trade package, switch hitting, you know, utility infield. You sell that shit through the roof. Somebody's gonna buy that, somebody wants that. The twins want that. People want that. And we got to be realistic and be like, yeah, there's absolutely no way you're ever gonna get playing time over Alex Bregmar and Games. We sponsored on the left side of the infield. And our best player on the roster is Nico Horner, who plays second base. So now are we gonna Pedro Ramirez should should maybe he can play left field? I don't know. I know he's an infielder right now, and I know I'm really spending a lot of time on one player, but the general thing is the same thing applies to Kevin Alcantara, the same fucking thing applies to James Triantos, you know, Jonathan Long. The same thing applies to anybody who's wearing a minor league uniform for the Cubs. I'm not looking at a single position at the Major League roster and going, we need to get one of these young guys up right now. We need to get one of these. What we need to do is get those young guys all over 300, get all their slugs over 500, and we need to be dangling those boys out there as hard as we possibly can. Jed's selling his balls off at the trade deadline so we can get reinforcements to starting pitching that put this team over the top. Back to where I said at the start of the show is we are a contender to win the National League pennant. That we should see ourselves in the same fashion as the Dodgers and anybody else that's chasing an NLCS. That's exactly who this roster is. That's how the lineups come together. That's the team that we have under correct counsel right now. That's the leadership that's come together. That's the mix we have with the veterans, with the young guys. You know, when you point out your young guys and you go look at PCA's been sensational the last 10 games, been sensational the last 20 games. These last 20 games, he has an OPS close to 800. He's on pace for 7B war. I mean, he's far and away the best defender in Major League Baseball. So his OPS plus is up to 94. It was down to like 65. It's up to 94. It's been red hot lately. With runners in scoring position, he's got a 150 weighted run created plus. He means he's 50% above average with runners in scoring position. Where Nico Horner, people think he's our best hitter with runners in scoring position. I probably made that argument. On paper, he's not. On paper, Pete Crow Armstrong's been much better with runners in scoring position this year. Do you believe that? Or do we just want to bitch? Because he has obvious strikeouts. Nobody on two outs, nobody on. Pete Crow Armstrong's strikeout rate's got to be over 60%. He's taking monster fucking hacks. That's a tenant. Nobody on two outs try and slug. Who cares if you strike out? There's nobody on base. Get yourself in scoring position. One of the most famous sayings I've ever heard in a baseball dugout. I shouldn't say famous, but repetitive, drilled into my head from my pitching coach in college. Who, you know, whatever. People point whatever, like big deal, not a big deal. He developed Colt Hammels, fucking coached Roy Halliday, coached these guys, developed Cole Hammels. You know, I'm not saying he is Cole Hammels, but it's pretty cool that the guy that I worked with, you know, that I have my personal experience in this game with, the most formative guy in me teaching teaching me about the game, he'd always say, two out double, two out double. And in from the perspective of a pitcher, no, two outs, nobody on base, you know. Uh the hitter might be a little bit more aggressive. And that's a tenant in baseball, the two out double, the two out extra base hit. Two outs, nobody on, put a charge into it, you know, especially early in the game, two out double. So I think P. Carl Armstrong is inversely when you look at it from the hitter perspective, is a guy who two outs, nobody on big swings. He's been great with runners and scoring position. So we're just gonna go through this quick here, guys. I'm I'm I'm when I say quick, that means we're not gonna go through it quick. Catching position, you know, Carson Kelly's been great. McElamaya's been great. Both of these guys are way above average. We're so lucky. Both of these guys would be the number one catcher uh on like almost almost any other team, I think. We've we have sensational catching. Now, whose team is it? It's probably Carson Kelly's team. You know, I've said it's McAllamay's. I think that just there is no backup. I think it's truly a two-man team, one A, one B. I think in a I think in a playoff series, in three games, Carson Kelly probably starts all three. In an NLDS, Carson Kelly probably starts a first two. You know, in a five-game series, in a seven-game series, Carson Kelly probably starts five or six games. That's at least how I see it right now. I could be wrong. I don't know. In either event, delighted with the catching situation. Um, you know, first base, it's like, does it seem like Michael Bush is starting to heat up? Are we comfortable? I know what we're gonna do as we talk through this lineup is at no point am I gonna say we need to trade to upgrade one of these positions. If we do have to make a trade to upgrade one of these positions, it's gonna be because somebody, unfortunately, uh, you know, banged for the year. And if that happens, if somebody does go down for the year, which not, you know, obviously I'm not encouraging this or cheering for any of this. I'm just saying, in the situation that happens, all the more reason we're cheering for these minor league players to be even better. Crack, I need everybody to be Pedro Mirrors, crack top 100. Because if we're replacing anybody this year, it's not going to be through the farm system. That like when people say just bring him up. See, it could be Schwarber in 2015. Remember? Yeah, I remember he's not the fourth overall draft pick. We don't have that guy in the organization right now. We need the guys that we can trade for major league players, if that's what we're doing. But the luxury that we have is I'm talking through this lineup, is that there's nobody in the lineup we want to replace at all. The only thing we could use is like a righty bat that could play first base, like a true right slug bat. And we thought that was Tyler Austin, blows his knee out. That sucks. You know, that's a that's low-hanging fruit. But as far as it, you know, Michael Bush's bounce back, he's been okay lately. When I say lately, I say that's like like lady. You know. Not a great, not a great series in in San Diego by any stretch of the imagination. But can we count on Bush against lefties? We'll see. We'll figure this out. That I've talked so much about that because it's honestly like here, what do you want me to say? Nico Horner, 137 OPS plus, hitting 291, 13 walks against 14 strikeouts, 26 RBIs. He would say he's on pace for 135 RBIs this year. Okay. Nico Horner is. Nico Horner's not on pace for. Let me repeat this. Nico Horner's on pace for 135 RBIs this year. Um, you know, Dan Smith Swanson, by far and away the best offensive start to his season he's had in a Cubs uniform. Alex Braggman, people can't get his dick out of their mouth. People are obsessed with Alex Braggman. I tried telling people how good how much you're gonna like him, the leadership, all this stuff. People don't believe me. That's okay. You don't have to. But are we starting to fill in this puzzle here, right? We're solid second, we're solid at short, we're solid at third, we're solid at catcher. We're solid in left field, whether you like Ian Hap or not. 134 OPS plus, slugging 460, we'll win another gold glove. You may want more. That's a literally a perfect left fielder when you consider the rest of the mix.

unknown 30:21

P.

Bullpen Injuries And The Silver Lining

Ben Brown Becomes A Late-Inning Weapon

Diamondbacks Series Preview And Expectations

Deadline Mindset Plus Final Calls

SPEAKER_00 30:21

Carl Armstrong. You know. 150 weighted run created plus with runners in scoring position. Stop bitching about him. Platinum defender in center field. Elite. As good as anybody's like ever played center field, right? That's what people say. So roll your eyes, etc. I don't I mean, I haven't seen anybody play a better center field. Jim Edmonds sat back a little bit in the late night. That was cool. If you, you know, you're everybody obviously everybody remembers the Edmonds era. But it seems that it's it's it's like that, except way better with PCA. So no, he's like he's like a he's like faster Ken Griffey Jr. in center field, just makes sensational plays after sensational play. And he's going through it right now, and we talk about the adjustment process. And so when he breaks out of this adjustment phase and he gets his timing down, his foot down, and the weather's hot and he's settled into the season, you know, and he hits his 25 home runs. We're not gonna be bitching about there's no P. Armstrong's our center fielder for the next however long he wants to play it. And then we just look out in right field, we go, Matt Shaw says Suzuki. You know, maybe that makes me a little uncomfortable, but Shaw's awesome and he just gets better every single game. Matt Shaw gets better. He's one of our best hitters. 301, 500 slug, playing every single position, except for third base, except for the one that he was really good at. So when we go back to the trade deadline, which is just a conversation people are going to be talking about, when you talk about improving this roster and the playoffs and our expectations, it's very easy here, guys. We want to add a right-handed bat that doesn't have to start and can hit for slug. We don't need that right-handed bat to come from the minor leagues. We want our minor league baseball players to put up monster seasons so that we can trade them at the trade deadline. We want to get a huge haul of starting pitching. You know, we need swing and miss stuff. Now's the time you give up as many prospects as you have for the absolute best arm that's available. And so that's something that'll be fun. We'll dig into. You keep your eyes peeled during the month of May, you know, guys that are climbing that charts of who's, you know. And it all changes, right? Like who thought the Mets would be 10 and 20 through their first 30? I'm not saying the Mets are gonna be sellers and all that shit. But we'll have them, you just you need time to understand who the buyers, who the sellers are. Obviously, we're gonna be huge buyers, and what I'm trying to say is we should we should be positioning ourselves to be the biggest buyers at the market this year. And I do believe for payroll flexibility concerns next year, there's 80, 90, 100 million coming off easy books next year. Easy between Boyd, Shota. Did we talk about this on Monday? We did. Ian Hap, James and Taon. There's a ton of money coming off the books next year. So we have the space. If we got to go trade for someone who's gonna hit their arbitration next year and they're gonna get a 26, you know, whatever, 22 million, some big number, whatever. Showda's getting 22 and a half million right now, so we have some protection there where we don't have to get all the control. Like when we traded Freddie Cabrera this offseason, a big thing was like, well, he's got three years of control, that's great. You know, it's cheaper, you get more time with them before he hits free agency. We can just go we can if we have to go get somebody who we only get for three months, then that's that's how it is. And we don't have to go get the Michael Siroca big bat for a big return, you know, or small pay-in for a big, you know, big return. I guess that's called a long shot, Carl. You moron. Cut me some slack here. This is a this is a Friday show, technically a Thursday night show. And we're just talking through the roster, going through the starting pitching, you know, the impacts Justin Steele has on the trade deadline. And the reason when I'm talking about this lineup, but I'm saying there are no, I hate this word, gaping holes. There's no gaping holes, there's no moist gaping holes on this team. You know, and I haven't I've I could take laps all I want on Moises Biasteros to show. You guys know I'm not that type of guy. I'm not you know, he's been great, he's probably been our best hitter. I if you if you go by the weighted numbers, 190 OPS plus he's been our most productive hitter. People want to see him more against right-handed pitching. I think he should hit second. You know, Confordo's been oh, I guess Confordo's been what? Confordo's been solid enough in 38 plate appearances, hitting 300 with Nate 54 OPS. So that's a nice find from Jed because I was bitching about him big time. But something that's nice about this, not a lot of not a lot of plate appearances are going are going around. We've really technically only used 13 position players this year. You know, have gotten the the lion's chair of the playing time. We are using different lineups for sitting guys consistently. I think that's gonna make a difference this year. I'm like excited to see how this plays out over the 162. There's a lot of calculated rest, especially early in the season. There's guys are getting a lot of rest right now, and the lineups are all a little bit different every single day. Like there's some tenants to it that are consistent. Nico wants to play every day, Nico's gonna lead off every day. Bragman wants to play most of the time. Bragman's gonna get a day off every now and then. You know, PCA, getting as much playing time as possible, especially against left-handed pitching. I love that we haven't just completely moved into like, oh, it's a lefty, now we gotta hit Matt Shaw. I said uh PCA ball or strike should be hitting nine against lefties and just bank that. And don't whatever if he goes over four, if he has to get the tape on the lefties. And I'm never gonna live in a world where I don't want PCA playing one as much as possible. So whatever, just go through the adjustment phase. But the big tenant to this conversation here is that the puzzle pieces to this being a team that's good enough to win the NL pennant is pretty clear here. Without injury, we have right field figured out solid to the extent we want to continue to draw it out. If there's one spot on the field where we would acquire somebody, it would be because Saya's clearly did there'd have to be an injury. Something would have to severe, significantly bad have to happen. Because Sean Say aren't gonna slump their way out of where it's like, well, I don't want them to play right field. There's not gonna be a situation where there's gonna be somebody available at the trade deadline where it's a better fit or whatever than what we have in right field. We cannot upgrade at center field. We're not gonna upgrade left field. Third, short, second, all figured out. Catching position completely figured out. So it's the pitching staff, and it's do we want to get Michael Bush some help at first base? Or can Matt Shaw cover it? Or can Carson Kelly cover it? That these are do you know how lucky we are to have these questions about this team through 31 games in the season? So, you know, we do have some time, some luxury here with the bullpen to get it, you know, to get it right, because it hasn't been, which I think is a very fair thing to say about the bullpen. And that's okay because some of the guys that have sucked, I'll take it, dude. If you told me Maton's gonna blow and have to go to the I. L, but Ben Brown is gonna step up with a sub two ERA, pitch confidently and to contact, I'll take that trade at the start of the year. If you listen to the Alex Cohn interview, he was saying Ben Brown is the best stuff in the organization. That was a common thing people talked about in the organization. Okay, so then here's a trade. Tealbar is gonna be on the I. L. Ben Brown's gonna be awesome because he's gonna have to step up and pitch late innings and get some experience early in the season. Oh, what a what a benefit. What a luxury we have. You know, Hobie Milner's been, I guess, good enough. He doesn't strike anybody out. It's kind of weird. But like we're not paying him to strike people out, we're paying him for bad swings. Jacob Web's been bad. You know, it sucks how many guys are on the IELTS? Hunter Harvey, Daniel Palencia. It this obviously just blows. But again, if you told me that the one thing that's gonna come out of this hodgepodge bullpen situation is Ben Brown will become a guy we count on late with his swing and miss stuff. Well, then Phil Mayton's gonna come back. He'll pitch well if he's healthy. Hunter Harvey, if he's healthy, these guys will perform. If Palency is healthy, this is the question. So now we'll just fill in the pieces as we continue to go. But the big luxury that we have is we're gonna get into May and June in the warmer months. Is if this Ben Brown version is what we think, then we'll make out like bandits when it's September and it's October. Like that, like these are the sacrifices you're gonna have to make. And we've talked extensively about what it would take for Ben Brown to figure it out. It's like extreme circumstances, heartbreak, you know, not being good enough, and really taking it on himself to just be as aggressive as he possibly can. Now, the one thing he's done that I'd love to see is now he's thrown three pitches this year, is two seamers over the plate. That's the biggest thing. 96% of his pitches are either a four-seamer, a curveball, or a two-seam fastball. And he's thrown his curveball more than any other pitch at 36%. He's thrown it 87 miles an hour. The average curveball from a right-handed pitcher in Major League Baseball is 80 miles an hour. Okay. His it's it's about 8% harder than your average curveball. Um, it's got significantly less depth to it, but it's got way more bite. Okay, so it means like it's got late break, not a ton of break, the break that relative to an average curveball, but the break that it does have occurs very late in the pitch's life, which is way more important than having huge break if it shows early. That's why you'll see guys throw big breaking balls and you're fucking hammered into the upper, upper, upper deck, right? Because guys say that it's called a wrinkle, it's called a hump. When you see it early, the action happens early in front of the plate, the hitter's not caught off guard. What you want is that breaking action to happen at 48 feet. You don't want it happening at 36 feet where someone sees this loopy ass shit coming out of your hand like a lollipop. And so that's the truth, the benefit that Ben Brown has behind his breaking ball is this late depth where when people say it falls off the table, well, if something fell off the table, what would it look like? It would fall straight down, right? And so that's kind of the action that it has that breaking ball. It's purely elite swing and miss stuff. And if you're throwing your fastball over the plate and you're aggressive with the four-seamer and you're challenging ready's on the inside part with a two-seamer, there's so it's so much harder to pick up on the breaking ball that's fallen off the plate. And it just makes the the swing and miss so much more evident. But he has to put himself in those positions by throwing first pitch strikes. Or if going down 1-0, making a quality pitch within the first two strikes of a plate appearance, within the first two pitches, a quality strike within the first two pitches of a plate appearance. You know, technically you want it on the first pitch. That's I mean, that's the gold standard. That's Roy Halliday and Greg Maddox and Tom Glevin and Smallton, Roger Clement. That's elite pitching, is throwing quality first pitch strikes. Now, I'm not going to put that expectation on Ben Brown. I don't think he can do that. I'll make it simpler and say within the first two pitches, can you throw a quality strike? Now, if you do, then I think he has the opportunity to kind of eat and feast, and he's getting these opportunities to have success in meaningful moments, then there's urgency there because there's nobody else coming, Ben. Like you're the guy. We need you to do this. We need you to, we can't send you to AAA. You've already done this. We can't go to AAA and get other guys to fill in for you. There's been injuries. We try to get other people to pitch these late innings. They're fucking hurt, Ben. Can you be the guy to step up and do it for us? And so that's part of that when we say like something severe has to happen to his evolution for him to grow and take those steps and mature to the point where it's like, yeah, I'm the guy where he knows it. You have all the fun you want, play all the video games and trade Pokemon cards and you know, go to the zoo on your off day and whatever it is. Like, be whoever you want to be. But when you get on that mound, you better be a bad dude. You better pitch with a purpose, you better be a tough son of a bitch. You better not be pouting about an umpire, you better not give a fuck if somebody gets a cheap hit. You better be a guy who just wants to mow people down. And we didn't see that from Ben. And so it's not a stuff thing, it's not a mechanics thing, it's not a you need to throw more pitches on the mound, and you need to it's you need to get on the mound and be aggressive, and your stuff's elite. So, for instance, is if you're gonna throw a two-seed fastball, you don't need to start it glove side outer half so that it can run over and you can catch the batter looking stupid. How about you use the middle end third of the plate and let that action work itself into the hands of a right-handed hitter? And just let the let the ball work. You know, you don't have to be perfect. So, this is a really passionate come around that I've had on Ben Brown. And just the thing I would say is like, again, if you told me, if you told me I could have a trade, Teal Bar's gonna be on the aisle, Mayton's gonna be on the aisle, Hart Harvey's gonna be on the aisle, but out of this will come Ben Brown as an elite late inning reliever from these circumstances. I'm taking that trade, knowing those guys are gonna come. Back from the IL and the collective of the bullpen wall have all been been made better for it. We on the same page because this is why I feel so good about this team. You know, at 19 and 12, with severe challenges to the starting pitching when you lose Kate Horton, you know Justin Steele's not coming back, and Matt Boyd's missed time and hasn't been sharp. So whatever, fine. We'll solve that problem. We're gonna solve it at the trade deadline. We'll solve it in that window. I think trading too soon for a starting pitching could mean we're giving up more, or we have to we have to give up more. I'd rather watch some of these minor leaders continue to thrive. There's plenty of infielders we have at the triple A level that are enticing enough to start building a package. We've got guys at high A and double A that are going to be talented enough to fill in the gaps on a package. We can make multiple trades for relievers. We got action for starting pitching. Uh, you know, if there's an injury or something, we need to get an outfielder. I think we do that as opposed to get a Kevin Alcantara, promote him, and hope that he can play at the major league level while we're pursuing a pennant. I don't want to do that bullshit. Unless you are a top prospect, knocking down the door. You know, we don't, I don't think we have that. Now people say maybe it is Pedro Ramirez, I'll just go back to that aim again. I don't know. I know that I want major league quality players on this roster. Period. End of story. We're not rebuilding. I'm not looking at the future. I think this season we can absolutely win 100 games. So that was basically the collective of the mailbag that I had in my head. Because I want to talk about the bullpen. Um, I haven't said anything about the Diamondbacks. We play this um them this weekend at home, obviously, starting tomorrow with a 120. So expectations, the Diamondbacks are obviously you know a talented team. We have Colin Ravers, Zach Galen, Show to Imanaga. We got Matt Boyd going against Merrill Kelly, he's getting paid 20 million. He's brutal this year. Um, we do have a clear advantage starting pitching at home. You know, I don't want to shit too much on the Diamondbacks because I they're they're just they got solid players. So you know, there's no like they're they're clear, they're clearly not a bad team. I love their middle infield, you know, Catel Marte, uh Geraldo Perdomo. You know, they've got good speedy outfielders. They're so they're just solid. Like, you know, whatever. Welcome to welcome to regular field, Corbin Carroll. Excited to see you play. But the clear expectation for this is two out of three. You know, I mean, I think we've spent a lot of time on the show. We're towards the end of this show, where we don't need to like hammer home, you know, where should we sweep the Padres or sweep the Diamondbacks? Like, what are our expectations coming out of that West Coast road trip? Three and three, that's house of money. That's six and oh, baby. Three and three on that West Coast road trip. That's just unbelievable. Taking a series from the Padres, who we had to play in the playoffs last year. It's a good team. You know, Mason Miller's legit. Whatever. You know, they've won every start Randy Vasquez has made for him. Manny Machado is going to the Hall of Fame. Fernando Tatis Jr. is probably gonna follow him. You know, Suckcliffe had a lot of respect for Xander Bogartts. I don't necessarily do. I think Swanson's a much better player and think Jed Hoyer could have made a better decision. Dan Speed Swanson's seven years, 177 million. Is it for Xander Bogart's 10 years, 300? Far come on, what are we doing? Get real, get serious for a second here. But my point is just calibrating expectations. I love that we've had an off date, guys are home, and this is our, I believe, our third weekend in a row, or three out of the last four weekends, where we've had three 120s. And so we didn't play well against the pirates, we did play well against the Phillies. I believe that was the sequencing in the 120s, pirates and the Phillies, and so now we have another batch, and this is a team that doesn't play a ton of 120s. I think they're biological clocks because they're West Coast guys, these are like 11 a.m. games, you know. So this is like it this is why it's a huge advantage to the Cubs. The weather's gonna be 42 degrees tomorrow. This would be the coldest game, shittiest game the Diamondbacks have played this season, I believe. So that kind of sucks for them, obviously. You know, and then so why do I feel confident about Colin Ray tomorrow? I think he's just gonna pitch to contact, cold situation, cutters inside on left-handed hitters. It's a good matchup for us. I I think just generally speaking, two out of three, I'd be very disappointed if we lost this series. How about that? I would be very disappointed. Maybe not very. I'd be surprised. I'd be surprised. I expect two out of three, hopefully, by the time when Mahoney and I sit down on Sunday night, 21 and 13, which then puts us over um the 620 win percentage, I think, which you need to win 100 games. I think that's good. That's where I've been gearing this towards. Can we win 100 games? I started the show with this. You know, and then the just the big question for that is if the starting pitching is gonna be good enough. I think it is. I think it's good enough for the 162, but there's huge opportunities for us to improve it. We've got the culture for it, we have the prospect capital to do it. The time is now a bunch of veterans all in their windows to win now. You know, this is it. If we're gonna put together a machine that can compete with the Dodgers, like this is this is exactly what it should look like at this stage in the game. So I'm enthusiastic about where we're at. I want to thank everybody for tuning into the Monday Morning Cup show. You guys get an opportunity, go get some thirsty Vicero. I I feel like I've armed you guys with some good information here for conversations, debates. You guys are sitting at the bar with your buddies talking to your dad about should we trade for this guy, that guy? Do your own research, figure out who you like, you know, because and I would under the mindset of like you we can absolutely unload for the biggest guy this year. I would have not encouraged you to do this years before. And years before, I've oh I've repeatedly taken a stance to say, not now, there's no reason for it now, we're not sure what we have. Like, we're into that phase now where it's unload. I want I want the best starting pitching that we can get. The time is now, the lineup is good enough, the leadership is good enough, and so that's where you guys should be. That's as we go into the weekend, that's how I want you guys feeling about this team. That's how we should be watching this team and judging this team. Obviously, that means elevating your expectations, which introduces the opportunity for you to get hurt and let down, but that's the nature of being a sports fan. And now I'm willing, where I would never, I mean, could ask me about the bulls. Get out of here. You know, or it's the same thing when you look at the 2015 Cubs versus 16 Cubs. People say the 15 team was more fun. Well, that's because you didn't really have that much expectation. It was just like, holy shit, this is happening. There ain't no holy shit this is happening with this roster. This is this is we should have intentional belief, conviction, and expectation that this team is good enough to win the division comfortably, that they are gonna put the Brewers down after years of them winning the division in a row. You know, let's let's mess around, let's compete with the Dodgers for the one seed in the National League. Let's be that good. Why can't we be that? We should be that good. And I think our starting pitching can do good enough well enough, be fine enough in May, so that once it starts turning in June, once the U.S. open Father's Day, so that's where shit's really gonna heat up. I think we're gonna have a monster July. You know, this is how I feel. So don't get sucked in these conversations about we need to promote this guy, we need this guy, we need to we need our minor leaguers to be awesome. Then we need to trade them for a whole bunch of starting pitching and bullpen help and just get the most swing and miss and the best stuff that we can get. Because I love the lineup. So we'll be back on Monday, you know, with some good ball or strike with Mahoney, maybe with a maniac. Keep your eyes peeled for this. You know, maybe some merch. Stirk Family Farms 20% off. Promo code MNCS. You guys want to support the family business? And then obviously, last thing, if you enjoyed the show, please leave a review. Spotify or Apple. I trigger I we got a couple reviews this past week on Spotify. I was I was down in the dumps the other day, wasn't feeling too good, haven't been sick, you know, having a tough day. Just go to spot. Then I see I'm like, damn, a couple more people left the reviews. We got to keep the ball rolling, baby. Cubs come out, win a padre series. That's the momentum we're talking about. So how'd I do? Less than an hour. How about that? 53 minutes. All right, you guys are awesome. I love you guys. If you get a chance, leave a review, check out Thirsty Bacero, you know, and share the maybe give the show to a friend. Um how long will I drag this outro for? Not much longer. Let's go beat the shit out of the Arizona Diamond Banks. I love you guys. God bless.