S2 Episode 8: Gavin Newsom's Redistricting Plans

Richie Greenberg brings on special guest Max Kanin, election consultant and attorney in Los Angeles, for a candid discussion about CA Governor Gavin Newsom's scheme to redistrict portions of California's voting district, to benefit the democrats running for US congress. 

You can find Max online and subscribe to his Substack:  https://maxkanin.substack.com/. 

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Transcript

California's Redistricting Countermeasures to Texas

Max and Richie discuss proposals by California officials to counter Texas Republicans' redistricting efforts. Max explains that Governor Newsom's approach involves calling a special election to change the constitution, with a condition that California would only redistrict if Texas does. Attorney General Bonta, on the other hand, proposes drawing new maps and submitting them directly to voters for approval. Max expresses concern about the implications of these proposals on the rule of law and the potential consequences of mid-decade redistricting. He notes that Newsom's plan could effectively eliminate Republican-held districts in California if implemented, but would only be triggered by Texas' actions.

California Redistricting Legal Precedent Debate

Max discusses a historical case from 1894 where the California State Legislature attempted to move the state capital to San Jose through a constitutional amendment, but the court removed it from the ballot due to an invalid condition. He relates this to Governor Newsom's current proposal for redistricting, suggesting that a similar legal issue might arise if the plan is conditional on Texas's actions. Richie then provides context for the discussion, explaining that Newsom's proposal is a retaliatory strategy against Texas Republicans' attempt to redraw congressional maps in their favor for the 2026 midterm elections.

Redistricting Battle: Texas vs. California

The discussion focuses on redistricting efforts in Texas and California and their potential impact on the balance of power in Congress. Max explains that Texas Republicans are attempting to redraw districts to maintain control of the House of Representatives, even if voters nationwide favor Democrats. In response, California Governor Newsom is considering redrawing California's districts to protect vulnerable Democratic seats and potentially gain more. The conversation also touches on how population changes affect the number of Congressional seats, with Max clarifying that despite gaining 2.3 million residents between 2010 and 2020, California lost a seat due to Congress not expanding its total number of seats in about a century.

California Redistricting: Challenges and History

Max explains the history of redistricting in California, including the creation of the Independent Redistricting Commission in 2008 and its expanded authority in 2010. He notes that Governor Newsom's desire for a mid-decade redistricting faces legal challenges, as the California Supreme Court previously ruled against such actions in the 1980s. Max also points out that any attempt to change the redistricting process would require careful constitutional amendments to address both the redistricting authority and the mid-decade redistricting ban.

California Redistricting Proposal Constitutional Concerns

Max explains that Bonta's proposal to change California's redistricting process would likely violate the state constitution, as voters cannot override constitutional provisions through initiatives. He compares this to the case of Proposition 22, which banned same-sex marriage but was struck down by the California Supreme Court. Max believes this proposal only arose in response to Texas's actions and suggests it may be part of Newsom's potential presidential campaign strategy. He also mentions a rumor about including a repeal of the top-two primary system in the redistricting amendment, though this could face legal challenges.

Electoral Systems: California vs. New York

The discussion focuses on electoral systems in California and New York. Max and Richie compare the top-two primary system in California with New York City's recent mayoral primary. They discuss the potential advantages and disadvantages of different voting systems, including ranked-choice voting and its implementation in San Francisco. The conversation also touches on the responsiveness of elected officials to constituents and a upcoming recall election in San Francisco. Max shares his background as a campaign finance and election law attorney, and mentions his weekly substack publication.

California's Controversial Redistricting History

Max explains the history of redistricting in California in 1981, when Democrats drew a controversial map that gained them 8 seats. Republicans challenged this through a referendum, which passed in 1982, but Democrats repassed the same map before leaving office. This led to an attempt by Duke Major to create a new map through an initiative, which the court rejected. Max compares this situation to current proposals by Attorney General Bonta and Governor Newsom regarding redistricting, noting that a special election could cost $200 million, which the state cannot afford.

California and Texas Redistricting Challenges

Max discusses the history of redistricting in California, explaining how in 2001, Howard Berman's brother was paid by incumbents to draw protection maps, resulting in safe districts for most representatives. He then shifts to the current situation in Texas, where Republicans have already maximized their advantage in district drawing but face limitations due to the Voting Rights Act and internal party conflicts. Max expresses skepticism about Texas's ability to further manipulate districts and cautions against pursuing unrealistic strategies, citing recent failed ballot initiatives in California as examples of well-funded efforts that still lost public support.

California Redistricting and Missed Opportunities

Max and Richie discuss the potential for California to implement redistricting mid-decade, which could trigger similar actions in battleground states. Max criticizes Democrats for missing an opportunity to pass nationwide independent redistricting commissions and expand the House of Representatives between 2021 and 2023. He suggests that such measures could have gained support from smaller states' senators.