Ashamed to Admit
Are you ashamed to admit you're not across the big issues and events affecting Jews in Australia, Israel and around the Jewish world?
In this new podcast from online publication The Jewish Independent, Your Third Cousin Tami Sussman and TJI's Dashiel Lawrence tackle the week's 'Chewiest and Jewiest' topics.
Ashamed to Admit
Israel and Iran at war: Special episode with Kylie Moore-Gilbert, Gideon Cohen and Hannah Moshinsky
This week, in a special episode of ATA, we examine the escalating tensions between Israel and Iran. Iran expert Kylie Moore-Gilbert, a former detainee of the IRGC, shares her insights on how the Iranian regime is responding to what may be its greatest challenge to power since the 1979 revolution. Dash and Tami also connect with two young Australians currently in Israel to bring listeners firsthand accounts from the ground.
Articles relevant to this episode:
https://thejewishindependent.com.au/israel-v-iran-the-best-analysis
https://thejewishindependent.com.au/iran-v-israel-another-war-without-an-exit-strategy
https://thejewishindependent.com.au/israel-has-two-aims-against-iran-is-either-achievable
https://thejewishindependent.com.au/iran-may-turn-to-international-terror
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Hey everyone, welcome back to Ashamed to Admit the podcast where we say and ask the quiet things out loud and occasionally we direct our attention to the breaking news of the day.
Speaker 2:This week's episode is going to be a little different. This week's episode is going to be a little different. We had another conversation planned and recorded, ready to go, and then, as you're all aware, war broke out between Israel and Iran. Today you're going to hear three voices on what's currently unfolding. First up, we have two young Australian Jews in Israel. They'll be bringing us their perspective on what they're seeing. What they're hearing and what they're feeling as missiles rain down on Israel and as the region edges closer to a war unlike anything we've seen in living memory.
Speaker 1:That's right Dash. We, like many of our listeners, have been sending our thoughts and prayers to loved ones in Israel, but we wanted to do something more tangible, like giving a voice or a platform to the people actually living through the headlines we simply see on the news or social media.
Speaker 2:And at the same time, we know many of you have lots of questions about Iran. What can we expect next from the Iranian regime and, in particular, the IRGC, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps?
Speaker 1:And to that end, we were very fortunate to have Iran watcher, political scientist, academic, writer and friend I'm ashamed to admit Kylie Moore Gilbert, join us today.
Speaker 2:So the episode, it's going to be a bit raw. A bit rough because we're going to be putting this out pretty quickly.
Speaker 1:And I'm recording from a motel in rural New South Wales with dodgy internet and no external microphone.
Speaker 2:But stick around because this is essential listening right now.
Speaker 1:He's Dash Lawrence.
Speaker 2:She's Tammy Sussman.
Speaker 1:Welcome to the Jewish Independent Podcast. Ashamed to Admit.
Speaker 2:First up today we have Hannah Majinski. She's a graduate of the University of Melbourne and was involved in various Melbourne-based community organisations, including Kehelak Kalenu and the youth movement Habanim Draw. Hannah made Aliyah at the start of 2024 and is currently the Madrika or youth leader of Habanim Draw's Shnut program.
Speaker 1:In our interview you'll hear Hannah talk about Olim, and Olim are basically just the people who've moved to Israel from the diaspora as part of the Jewish immigration process Hannah.
Speaker 3:How are you both going?
Speaker 2:More importantly, how are you going, Hannah? You're the one we're concerned about right now.
Speaker 3:Okay, well, thanks for having me. I feel like it's important to have voices on the ground, so appreciate that. Honestly, I'm really tired. I feel like, yeah, all the missiles have come at nighttime, so sleep has been really disjointed and, yeah, been really disjointed and yeah, last night, for example, it was 11pm, 4.40am and then 8.40am, so I had a very disjointed sleep, but I'm safe and that's what matters.
Speaker 3:Are you sleeping in the bunker? That's in your apartment. No, so I'm actually not in my apartment. I'm a leader of the Australian SHNAP program for Habonim Draw, so when all this started on Friday, I made the snap decision to come up to a kibbutz in the north to be with the 12 khanachim participants who are still there. So there's not space for us to sleep in the bunker, but there's enough space for us to come in the nighttime, and our rooms are really close.
Speaker 2:Hannah, you mentioned that you are a leader of the schnutt cohort for Hub and Imdra, so presumably the Australian-.
Speaker 3:The schnutties.
Speaker 2:The schnutties. That's right. Okay, so there are 12 schnutties that you're leading at the moment that you're close by. How are they holding up? How are they responding to all of this?
Speaker 3:It's definitely way more stressful for them. They chose to come here for their gap year but, unlike me, they didn't commit to living in Israel and all that comes with it, so the first day or two was a really big shock for them and I had last year where I had a lot of the sirens and the notifications on the phone, but this was really new to them. But in saying that they've been really strong and really great. They are getting more and more used to it every day. They're upset how much it's impacting their schnapp and their program. They were meant to fly to America to lead on hub and draw camps there, but of course the airspace is closed, which is really hard and disappointing. But they also are really appreciative that they have a shelter at the kibbutz that they're on that is underground and really safe and like, as we're seeing, not every israeli is privileged enough to have a shelter in their building or a safe enough one below ground. So they're just really really glad that they're safe and what?
Speaker 1:about the parents, because I assume that, as in your role as a Madriachal, you have to deal with concerned or anxious parents back in Australia. How are you managing that?
Speaker 3:Fortunately, the parents are also staying calm and like dealing with the situation really appropriately. Of course they're concerned and have their fears, but they also all the parents and SNAP participants chose to still come to Israel or send their kids to Israel during a war because they came at the end of January and so it's not a big surprise. Obviously, they didn't expect a full-scale war with Iran, but again, it's not a shock and the Hanachim are in really safe hands with the program. We're in contact with security and all the levels of support that we can get.
Speaker 2:I know that you're surrounded by lots of Australians, hannah, both the Shnoddies that you lead, but also you're around lots of other Australians that have made Aliyah Interested in whether you've noticed any differences in the ways that the Australians, or perhaps your expat friends, are responding to this crisis than other Israelis.
Speaker 3:There is some differences. On one hand, olim, like in general, can get more scared and we have less networks here, so we're more vulnerable. Lucky, the apartment I live in in Pedach Tikva has a really good shelter, but I have friends that don't have that in their apartments so they don't just have family in the south or in the north they can go to. They have just maybe one other group of friends also in Petah Tikva that they can go to and luckily there's space and we can have people like crash on our couches and everything. But the network is a lot smaller so it makes us a lot more vulnerable. But then, on the other hand, while Israelis have more support, they also have more people to worry about and more people who get called up to reserve duty and more people they know in really not great situations.
Speaker 1:So it's a little bit of a different experience in more ways than that, but that's just one thing that I've noticed At the start of our chat, hannah, you thanked us and you said thank you for having voices, or platforming voices, from people who are actually on the ground. Is that in response to what I'm assuming is maybe some frustration, that a lot of the voices that Australians are hearing from are from people who are disconnected, who may not have first-hand experience?
Speaker 3:I actually don't know. I think I'm someone who generally follows the news and like loves to listen to podcasts and like loves to read what different people are saying about what's going on in Israel. But, like in the last five days, I have not had either the chance, the time or like the mental capacity to intellectually engage with what's going on. And I don't know, I'm sure there's Israelis on the ground able to do that, but I think it's also something that maybe people from a far more capable of digesting at the moment.
Speaker 2:What have you been doing to keep sane and to centre yourself and ground yourself?
Speaker 3:Well, I guess I'm as like my experience as a madrugah. Like the leader of the 12 australians here, I was thrown into the the job of making sure they're okay, making sure everything's running smoothly, managing their emotions. So I think keeping busy has been like also a blessing for me at this time. I know like the feeling on the ground. It kind of feels almost like lockdown, obviously in a very different way, but people are also quite restless. They're stuck in their apartments. They don't want to travel far from shelters. So right now it's okay. People are, you know, entertaining themselves, distracting themselves, but it's probably only a matter of time before more Israelis go a bit insane in this situation, because being stuck in an apartment isn't good for so many reasons. So I definitely feel grateful to be doing the job that I'm doing right now on Kibbutz Ein Hashafet, as well as like being outside. Luckily, kibbutzim are like that, but not like all Israelis have that privilege. I asked what? Youbutzim are like that, but not like all Israelis have that privilege.
Speaker 2:I asked what you're doing for yourself, Hannah, and you just said what you're doing for other people and that your thoughts are with others and that you're distracting yourself by taking care of your shnuddies.
Speaker 3:As in yeah, it's often it's intertwined. But, yeah, for myself, I definitely have like close support friends that I speak to often, which is really great. Just watching tv in breaks that I can is is really helpful. Yeah, sleeping a lot. I think the more, the more anxious you are often, the more lack of sleep that you're getting, and I've also been doing some guided meditations that they're being really helpful. I think that, like in stressful situations, a lot of people cannot engage in that and I didn't expect myself to be able to, but it actually really helps.
Speaker 2:So, Hannah, you've written for us before about your experience of making LER during a time of upheaval, because, from memory, you left, I think after October 7th, didn't you? You moved to Israel sometime in 2024?.
Speaker 3:Yeah, at the start of 2024.
Speaker 2:In your piece that you wrote for the Jewish Independent, you acknowledged you know that it seems counterintuitive to move to Israel during a time of conflict, but you gave some good reasons as to why you were compelled to move to Israel. But does this latest war have you considering returning to Australia?
Speaker 3:I don't like extreme statements, but my statement back to this is really not at all. Dfat sent out links to fill out. If you're an Australian citizen, we can get you back or at least have your details, and I'm really grateful that the Australian government is doing that. But I personally feel no need. I feel really safe here, despite everything that's going on and, yeah, I'm not considering it.
Speaker 3:I'm sure there's other Olim like me who are just feeling really grounded here and content with our decision. But at the same time I'm sure there's other Olim In fact I know a few other Olim that this would definitely rock them. But there are Olim that were already feeling rocked by the last couple of years in Israel and I think, with everything with making Aliyah, with moving back to the country you're from, it's a buildup. It's never like a drastic change that happens. I also feel grateful to be in Israel in a way, because I know there's over 150,000 Israelis stranded abroad and that's also a really difficult experience. I know parents who left their toddler with their grandparents for two days. They were just taking a weekend off to themselves and now they're separated from their toddler or other young people, separated from their partners or their families, so that would also be like a really really hard experience as well.
Speaker 2:I love the way you're just reframing everything, Hannah. This is science of someone that's very resilient, which is what you need to call Israel home, Tammy. Any other questions for Hannah Mazzynski?
Speaker 1:Well, I'd love for Hannah to have a nap. Thank you so much for chatting with us today.
Speaker 3:Pleasure. Thanks for having me on and also good night to you guys. It's late there.
Speaker 2:Our second conversation today with an Australian on the ground is Gideon Cohen. Gideon is a Melbourne-based journalist who writes regularly for the Jewish Independent and has also been published in Right Now, the Citizen and the Junction. Gideon Cohen, how are you.
Speaker 4:I'm alive, so that's all that matters. I'm very sleep deprived, but that's the least memories right now.
Speaker 2:Where do we find you right now?
Speaker 4:I'm in Tel Aviv, so like near you right now. I'm in Tel Aviv so like near sort of the Golden Beach area of Tel Aviv.
Speaker 2:And what was it that took you there? Because you are based in Melbourne.
Speaker 4:So in July I'm supposed to do a journalism fellowship program with Birthright so it was meant to be at Weichmann University with 40 Jews from America, australia, europe, like all over the world sort of coming together. It's like creatives, artists, content creators, journalists. We were going to do a month long intensive studying Israel and sort of looking at how to combat misinformation online. We're going to find out in like two days if that program is still going ahead. And then June was meant to be my holiday, part of like my trip. I was going to come for three weeks and enjoy some time in Tel Aviv and then do the program in July. Okay, it's turned into a work trip.
Speaker 2:now it has. Yes, Can we all be claimed back on tax, which I suppose?
Speaker 4:is Pretty much.
Speaker 2:I turned into an accidental war correspondent All jokes aside, what is it like at the moment out on the streets of Tel Aviv?
Speaker 4:I mean it very much ebbs and flows. So sometimes you'll walk around the streets and it's completely dead and there's nothing open, but then you'll stumble upon cafes that are buzzing with people. The promenade on the beach always has people all over it, like guys are working out at like the outdoor gym and people are going for runs. People are just lying out on the beach. You'll have a few hours, sort of, where it gets very quiet and ghost town-like and then other times it's completely packed with people who just are getting on with their lives. I mean, I went out for dinner last night at a restaurant that wasn't technically meant to be open it was takeaway and then enjoyed dinner by the beach and then two hours later I was in a shelter.
Speaker 2:Yeah, well, look for someone who lived through a Melbourne lockdown. I'm sure you know exactly what this experience is like.
Speaker 4:That's what it looks like. In the first few days it was very Melbourne lockdown vibes, but I think now people are just making the most of whatever few hours they have in the day. I also saw because a lot of people got stuck here for gay pride and then everything was cancelled, so people were throwing illegal parties throughout the first few days of the missile attacks. People were throwing illegal parties throughout the first few days of the missile attacks so I was seeing on instagram story like people like in like crazy illegal apartment parties and then topless in the shelter and then back up to the parties like up and down all night okay, so you were saying that you but you weren't participating in it.
Speaker 1:Is that what you're saying?
Speaker 4:no, no, I was not. It was all over my instagram stories, though.
Speaker 1:Because if you were to have participated, there'd be no judgment from me.
Speaker 4:No, I was trying to stay focused and do a lot of work, as much research and reporting as I could. I was like I want to capture every little moment I can, and then I've also just been obsessively glued to my phone. So I'm like listening to like live Twitter commentary spaces where they have like Iraniananian and israeli activists speaking. They're getting people inside of iran who are anti-regime calling in. I'm like following like open intel sources.
Speaker 1:Um ignorant question. When so you said you went out for dinner last night. If a siren were to have gone off, what would you have done?
Speaker 4:um, there are shelters everywhere within like a minute's walk because we were on the beach walks. There's like one beneath the us embassy where we were nearby. There's one next to the king david tower where we were. We were and the staff just said look, if we get an alert, we'll take all of you over to the, like the nearest shelter next ignorant question are there toilets in all the shelters?
Speaker 4:I'm not sure about all of them, but some of them. I mean, there was one night where I met up with a friend who was staying at the Hilton Hotel and I got to stay in his shelter for the night, which looks like a restaurant, so it's got booth seating and tables and catering and soda fountains. And then there are some that are just very basic concrete bunkers with nothing in them and gideon, with your journalist's hat on.
Speaker 2:What are you making of how israelis are responding to this? Because it seems there is expressions of just, you know, complete and utter disbelief, through to pride and euphoria at the audaciousness and success of this attack, through to, you know, obviously, devastation for some people, given that lives have been lost and that there is very significant damage in some parts of the country, albeit quite isolated. Give us a sense of the breadth of responses.
Speaker 4:I mean, the amazing thing you'll see in the shelters is just everyone very much coming together and taking care of each other and just sort of like. There's a very strong sense of like everyone, like being very communal and like looking out for one another and making sure everyone gets into the shelter in time and everyone sits there and people comfort each other. I was like making friends with people in the shelter in my neighborhood last night. So one was a girl from New York who's actually Persian and Jewish, so she's got family in Iran right now trying to escape. Then we were just joking as we left the shelter like might see you in a couple hours. Then we did.
Speaker 4:What I'm reading from the media here is that it's very much a non-partisan issue in terms of striking the Islamic Republic. I think everyone's sort of united on the fact that it needs to happen. I think people are pretty shocked at the fact that you know they've struck central Tel Aviv. Like the first night when the very first round of missiles from Iran started and then people started getting sort of live Twitter feeds and seeing that they'd hit Tel Aviv and we were hearing the booms, I think the mood very much changed. It became very, very real.
Speaker 4:And now I mean I can't speak for everyone, but me personally like looking at what this regime has done with a few ballistic missiles they have managed to land. Can you imagine if they had a nuke? Can you imagine if that threat had been left to continue for two more years and they got their hands on a nuclear weapon? Like this is, with all the bomb shelters and all the aerial defense system israel has. Like look at what they've done in a few days and where they're targeting as well. So at this, stage.
Speaker 2:You're greeting it with with some sense of fun and you seem to be relatively relaxed about the whole thing. How much longer do you think you can maintain the good spirits that you're in Gideon?
Speaker 4:I mean, there's not really a choice, is there? I mean, I can't fly out of here Like I'm going to be here until this is over with. So I'm not someone who gets overly anxious about things that are out of my control. All I can do is keep my phone by my hand, check the app and go to the nearest shelter and wait there until I'm instructed to do it otherwise. So I'm trying to put my feelings aside about what's happening. I also can't really process what's happening because I'm in it right now. The only thing I can do is post live updates online about what's happening and keep up with the news. So I'm trying to just keep my brain in work mode. I'm sure in a week's time or two I'll crash and finally get some sleep time or two I'll crash and finally get some sleep.
Speaker 1:As someone who uses humor to cope with difficult circumstances, I'm curious to know how you and your friends are, or if you're using humor there's. I know that in previous situations similar to this one, I know that I had. I was being sent memes from people in Israel cracking jokes are you at that point yet, or is it too soon for you?
Speaker 4:oh yeah, the memes have been constant have they been funny?
Speaker 1:yes can you describe some of them oh?
Speaker 4:I'm trying to think of one. There was one I saw that like chaotic jewish on instagram posted and it was like a picture of a labrador and it was like iranians standing with israel and then it was like a feral, like wolf, and it was like western activists standing with the regime. Because that's the other thing I didn't mention is like you'll never hear any sort of anti-iranian sentiment here from israelis, like everyone's very much under the understanding that this is not a war with Iranian people and that they want Iranian people to be free. And I'm seeing a lot of Israeli friends like posting about like unity with Iranian people and that it's a fight with the regime. I had someone I posted one of those sort of like Instagrams like a statement from Elika Labon about like unity between our people, and I had a person from Melbourne just reply free Palestine.
Speaker 4:I also had someone else that I used to be friends with like sending me like abusive messages in between running to shelters, um, the other night saying that I'm on the wrong side of history for what I'm posting, which all I'd posted was footage of me going to shelters and like a message of solidarity between Iranian and Jewish and Israeli people, and that apparently was very offensive to them to that white person in Melbourne yes, and then I um, I knew they were going to block me anyway, so I just kept sending them like sort of like pro-Israeli, iranian content, and then finally, it was like a statement from Ella Colobon saying that, as a Middle Eastern woman, no one oppresses him more than a white leftist.
Speaker 4:And then he crashed out and blocked me. So I was like that was.
Speaker 1:Probably felt a bit too seen at that point.
Speaker 4:And then the sirens went off one minute later. I was like okay, well anyway, priorities.
Speaker 2:Well, on that note, I think it's time to call this conversation to a close. Gideon, thank you for bringing your on-the-ground insights and your memes and sharing with us a little bit of life in Tel Aviv right now.
Speaker 1:One more question. I'm sorry, I'm sorry. Gideon, is there anything you're ashamed to admit?
Speaker 4:I mean it's not really good for, like, the name of your podcast, but it's kind of the opposite, because I had a lot of like blowback for even just giving like vague support to Israel in the last two years. I mean, like 80% of my friends from like so like the queer progressive scene in Melbourne no longer speak to me since October 7th, so I knew that they would. There'd be blowback for me even just being here and then actually just being in like an active, like missile strikes, like constantly knowing that people are actually losing their lives. I've never cared less about what I'm posting online and who's looking at it. And what's fascinating as well is I made a journalism page before this started and it's gained like a hundred followers in like 24 hours since. It's all kicked off.
Speaker 4:And a lot of people who don't follow that page are looking at every single story, sort of play by play, and these are people who post very anti-Israel content on their Instagrams, so they're obsessively watching this in real time, not checking in to ask if I'm okay or am I alive. The only thing I can really do right now is just show the reality of what's happening here, because I know I sound like I'm doing fine, but it is a horrific situation and people are losing their lives, and this is completely unprecedented in Israel's history. So the only thing I can do to be useful is to just show it to the world and show what this feels like.
Speaker 1:Yeah, no, that's a great response. Thank you for doing that.
Speaker 2:Thank you so much for being with us tonight. Thank you.
Speaker 1:That was Gideon Cohen, and now you'll hear Dasha's conversation with Kylie Moore Gilbert, who's an accomplished author, university academic speaker and political commentator. Her writing includes the best-selling 2022 memoir, the Uncaged Sky.
Speaker 2:Kylie survived 804 days as a hostage to Iran's IRGC, accused of being a Mossad agent, an MI6 agent and even a spy for Australia. Here's my conversation with Kylie Moore Gilbert.
Speaker 5:Hey Dash, thanks for having me.
Speaker 2:Kylie, you know the IRGC firsthand. How does their institutional culture, their sense of revolutionary mission, their paranoia shape how they're likely to be responding to what is arguably the biggest challenge to their power since 1979.?
Speaker 5:Yeah, look, there is no one IRGC. I'd make that point to start with. The IRGC is a behemoth. It's got factions in every possible realm. You can imagine everything from business interests pharmaceutical industry, oil industry, import-export, all the way through to the business of funneling missiles to proxies and fighting wars in parts of the region and repressing its own people. It does everything. It's kind of a parallel state in a way, within Iran.
Speaker 5:So you have multiple factions within the IRGC and they don't always see eye to eye, and you also have power struggles between senior elites as well. So it's really really hard, especially right now when you have such chaos in Iran and so many top guys have obviously been eliminated, it's hard to know what's going on there. Really, I can imagine that they're enraged. They've got egg on their face. Sometimes, when you corner a dangerous animal, it lashes out much more than it would ordinarily, and so I think we'll probably see quite a bit of that coming from the IRGC.
Speaker 5:Their ideology is such that at least it's professed to be as such that they are willing to essentially fight to the death. You know, there's a real cult of martyrdom. People are lauded and celebrated who return in in body bags from fighting holy wars in, in syria or lebanon or wherever it may be, iraq and um. There's very much sort of a celebration of the you know of shuhada, of martyrdom within IRGC ranks. So be a sizable faction within that organization right now which would be willing to continue fighting, no matter the stakes, and never give in and never compromise, which is actually extremely scary given the precarious situation of regular people in Iran right now.
Speaker 2:So I'm glad that you mentioned the factions. Given that Israel strikes appear to have killed several IRGC commanders and obviously their nuclear scientists, and that some of the senior officials are said to be looking over their shoulders or hiding in bunkers, how would you anticipate the power dynamics might be shifting right now within their security apparatus and who might be filling the vacuum left by the deaths of those leaders? And does this perhaps create an opportunity for other factions, maybe factions that might adopt a different approach to the previous leadership?
Speaker 5:So the primary issue here is that the guy at the top, ayatollah Ali Khamenei, is still in place. He's still calling the shots and he's essentially the dictator of Iran. It's to him personally, on an individual level, that the IRGC pledges allegiance, not to the people of Iran, not to the Iranian constitution, but to the supreme leader, whom the Iranians call Rahbar, as their guiding light, I guess. And so because he is still there and he has considerable religious legitimacy among the IRGC and other pro-regime groups, he's still calling the shots and making the decisions. So, for example, should Iran ultimately bend the knee and agree to some kind of humiliating negotiation with the United States to give up on its nuclear program and accept all kinds of bitter terms that they never would have wanted to accept ordinarily, this would have to be Khamenei's decision, despite or in spite of huge numbers of IRGC and other hardline factions in Iran that would prefer never to swallow that bitter pill and would prefer to sort of fight to the very end. So he's still calling the shots. But definitely you have to, and you always have.
Speaker 5:You've had multiple camps in the Iranian regime, some that are more dovish than others and some that are more hardline and hawkish.
Speaker 5:You've got people like the foreign minister Arachchi, who, despite linkages to the hardline factions and the IRGC, is sort of seeming a bit more like a sensible, more moderate for that regime person and saying, yes, not, you know, trying sort of seeming a bit more like a sensible, more moderate for that regime person and saying, yes, not, you know, trying sort of a bit of historical revisionism and saying, oh, we never left the negotiations with the United States and we want to sit down with the United States and we want to talk and we're, you know, we're not after nuclear weapons, and sort of trying to project that image. And then you've obviously got hardline elements, including within the parliament, the majlis, who have been saying, even a few days ago, let's leave the NPT, the nonproliferation treaty, let's sprint for a bomb right now, basically. So you've got a whole gamut of different views in Iran and I think, as always, it will be whatever the supreme leader decides, which is usually, you know, usually dictated by regime survival and you know his grip on power, yeah.
Speaker 5:What he decides will determine things.
Speaker 2:Kylie. Given that it all rests on the Supreme Leader of Iran, the 86-year-old Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei old supreme leader Ali Khamenei, can you give us some insight into his character and how you anticipate he might be responding to Israel's attack and to the escalation?
Speaker 5:Like most elderly people, in my view, khamenei is quite set in his ways, quite slow to change direction. It's hard for him to grasp radical new developments Because of his inflexibility. I think he's quite predictable in that sense and this could be one reason why he has not been targeted for assassination and why he's been retained in place, because it's kind of a better the devil you know situation. If he should disappear and there's no official successor to him and no universally accepted successor, which obviously looks like a foolish error on his part, to get to age 86 and not have any clear successor is kind of mad really. But that was due to power struggles within the regime and, I think, his attempts to sort of stay the top dog for as long as possible and not create a rival. So, given that he's so predictable in a sense and he's a known entity, he has shown himself to be a rational actor. He's obviously extremely hardline and ideological and fully bought into the ideology of the Islamic Republic. But you know he's been in power for more than three decades. He's relatively predictable in his decision-making and he has compromised in the past when the regime's survival is at stake. So it's possible that you know it was judged that keeping him there is better than the alternative which is at stake. So it's possible that it was judged that keeping him there is better than the alternative, which is some unknown faction, some unknown group, potentially militarized group or individual taking power with all the uncertainty that that could yield.
Speaker 5:So I think overall he's an elderly guy. He's very unwell. He's considered to have had cancer for a number of years. Now he's paralyzed down one side. He's got this kind of shriveled hand that doesn't move because of a failed assassination attempt in the 1980s that he's been kind of living with ever since. I feel like he's this inflexible old guy, very hard line but predictable, and maybe it's better. The devil you know.
Speaker 2:His capacity for compromise that you mentioned before. I'm expecting that you wouldn't predict it would extend to handing over the nuclear capability and acquiescing to Israel and the United States' demands.
Speaker 5:I actually think if I had to put money on it and it's a really, really difficult thing to do right now, of course I probably would expect him to actually eventually acquiesce.
Speaker 5:And that's because the alternative is simply the level of chaos that could ensue should they just fight on and see their regime crumble around them. I mean, they've lost the nuclear program anyway, right, particularly if the Americans do decide to step in and drop a massive bomb on the Fordow nuclear mountain. I mean, it's a massive mountain with a bunker under it full of nuclear material, which is the main sticking point and the main difficulty that Israel is experiencing in completely dismembering the nuclear program altogether. So you know, if they keep going and they don't compromise, they face the loss of their nuclear program and potentially far more than that significant face. And they've already lost all their deterrent, you know all their credibility with regional players, internally, within their own support base, within the eyes of the people who broadly don't support them. They've already lost that legitimacy anyway. Should they sign off on something with the US, it would be a humiliating and bitter blow for them to have to take on.
Speaker 5:But regime survival trumps everything and I think Khamenei has shown in the past that you know, he is willing to make these compromises if the very future of humanity regime he's dedicated his life to is under threat.
Speaker 2:Interested in the implications. In the domestic context in Iran. It's been said a lot in recent times that the regime has decreasing levels of support from the Iranian people. In fact, netanyahu has explicitly appealed to the Iranian people, saying that this is your opportunity to stand up and essentially seize this moment to finally overthrow the regime and the IRGC. You've got an interesting take on that that I want to get to in a moment, but first off, just on that question, could we see that moment?
Speaker 5:I think that's a really excellent observation, dash, and I think you're right. There's a strong danger here. No matter what the regime decides to do whether it negotiates and brings an end to this conflict or keeps fighting for a bit longer there's a really really strong risk for the regime that they will be weakened so greatly that the people will once again rise up and try and overthrow them. I'm not necessarily predicting that outcome, though I think it's too hasty, particularly because all of the bad guys still have all of the guns, and the Iranian people the ones that took to the streets in 2022, 2023, with the Women Life Freedom Movement, for example they don't have any weapons, they don't have any ability to remove this regime by force, nor will any kind of externally imposed regime change work. You know, I think decades of Western involvement in the Middle East has shown that if there's to be regime change, it has to be internal. It has to come from the Iranian people. So the danger here is that I think the regime internally will splinter. I think that perhaps there's a greater likelihood of that.
Speaker 5:You have so many factions, you have so many competing interests, particularly if something happens to the Supreme Leader. But even if he remains in place. Keeping a stranglehold on so many competing interests is going to be tough. When everybody is so weakened, when the economy is so weakened and they're licking their wounds ideologically as well, as you know, figuratively, it's going to be really tough to hold that together.
Speaker 5:So you might see a kind of mini well, you might see a lot of infighting within the regime which could then weaken it further, which could lead the people to, you know, attract defections, for example, to break them up altogether, because, as we've seen in history, most revolutions, you don't get rid of all of the bad guys. You need to actually convince some of the bad guys to come over to your side, convince some of the bad guys to come over to your side, and so I think that's the only real pathway forward is to splinter the regime and encourage some elements of it to defect to the opposition, which did not happen in all of the protest movements that have occurred in Iran in the past. But who knows now? I think it's a real risk for the regime and I'm sure it's at the forefront of their minds, but the path forward's not clear and it's probably going to be very bloody and chaotic if that does happen.
Speaker 2:You've penned an article just today for the Age cautioning Israel's involvement in any regime change. The headline reads Iranians support Israel assassinating their oppressors, at least for now. What is it that you want to say about the way that Israel might be manoeuvring to contribute to the overthrow of the regime?
Speaker 5:Israel's stated aim is to dismantle the nuclear program and, yes, netanyahu and others have made comments about regime change, but they haven't explicitly said that their objective is to overthrow the Iranian regime, and I think it would be very unwise of them to pursue that. I think they should focus solely on the nuclear program and potentially the ballistic missiles as well, getting rid of those and then getting the hell out and leaving the Iranian regime, or whatever remains of it, to fight amongst itself and figure out what next. I mean you know. So I think going after regime change is, as I said, ill-advised. I can't predict what they'll do or what their objectives are, but I think, as I was saying earlier, the Iranian people have to decide that question. And especially, you know, I think the point I made in my article was that if Israel takes actions that alienate the Iranian people, which are a natural constituency of support for that same aim of removing the regime and the nuclear program, the Iranian people don't want either At least 80% of the population want the Islamic Republic gone but alienating the people by mass civilian casualties, some of the statements that have come out of Israeli ministers, like Israel Katz, saying they're going to burn Tehran and the residents of Tehran will pay the price for the Islamic Republic's bombings of Israel.
Speaker 5:This kind of stuff, even Trump saying that the entire city of Tehran needs to be emptied and evacuated. I mean, that's not possible. These kinds of things are really, really concerning because that's, you know, not distinguishing between the regime and the people, and it does risk pushing some of those people back into the arms of the regime and it undermines the broader objective, which is to essentially create the conditions, perhaps, through which those people could eventually overthrow the regime themselves once the bombs stop falling.
Speaker 2:What is the largest kind of block or the most likely rival to the regime that would come presumably, I'm guessing, from secular Iran or the sort of non-IRGC aligned parts of Iran? Tell us a little bit about essentially the opposition. I guess it's very difficult to speak a lot about them in Iran and certainly we don't hear a lot about them in Australia.
Speaker 5:Yeah, you're so right. I mean, look, there is no official opposition, there are no even political parties in Iran. They have not allowed any group to flourish. Even, for example, trade unionists, rival Shia Islamic religious movements which are slightly different from that of the Islamic Republic, clamped down upon and stamped out immediately. You know, anything that could be construed as a political rival or ideological rival is decimated in Iran, including fellow travelers ideologically out immediately. Anything that could be construed as a political rival or ideological rival is decimated in Iran, including fellow travelers ideologically. So it's very difficult for any one group to emerge.
Speaker 5:You've got all of these groups in the diaspora, many of which would aspire to and would love to come back and sweep into Iran and take control and be the saviour of their country. But I don't think they have any real legitimacy with Iranians on the ground and could actually cause more trouble. And you know, I'm thinking especially of the Pahlavis, the monarchists, the followers of the son of the last shah of Iran who was kicked down in 1979. These people have a very loud voice and are very well organised in the diaspora. They do have support inside Iran, maybe, let's say, 5% of the population. Max would probably say that they're ardent monarchists. But you're never going to see broad popular support for the return of the son of the former Shah, and the idea that people think that that is a prospect at all is just bonkers to me, to be honest.
Speaker 2:Clearly you've got lots of contacts still in Iran friends that you're in touch with. But have you got much connection with Iranians in Australia, with the Iranian diaspora here?
Speaker 5:I do. I have quite a few lovely Iranian friends that I've met here in Australia. The Iranian-Australian community is really wonderful. They've been really supportive of me on a personal level, but also extremely loud and outspoken about human rights in Iran and the plight of their friends, family and compatriots back there. Particularly in 2022 when the Women Life Freedom movement emerged, they were really active lobbying parliament, doing protests, doing events, trying to draw attention to the cause and speaking in the media as well. So I got to know a lot of them through that.
Speaker 2:Have you heard from any of them since this wars began?
Speaker 5:Oh, I've had stacks of conversations with Iranian Australians. I mean, everybody's checking in with everybody else. You know, are your loved ones safe? I've heard all kinds of reactions, depending on people's politics. So some are kind of as people in the diaspora want to be right, like they have less skin in the game so they can be more radical. So some of them are like you know, drop a bomb on Khamenei's head right now and like go Israel, let's just like destroy this regime, go for full regime change. There's some really gung-ho people out there. And then there are plenty of others who have a lot of extended family in Iran. You know parents, brothers, sisters, who are absolutely terrified and aren't sleeping, are calling their loved ones, you know, constantly trying to organise safe routes for them to escape Tehran, places for them to stay. You know from here in Australia, and are just terrified, think the whole thing is horrific and want it to be over as soon as possible. Are just terrified, think the whole thing is horrific and want it to be over as soon as possible.
Speaker 2:The regime was already under really significant international sanctions, economic pressure. How much does its economic vulnerability constrain their potential future military responses, and can the country even afford a prolonged conflict with Israel at all?
Speaker 5:That's such a good question and, in short, no, it cannot. The Iranian economy has been on its knees for, I'd say, a decade at least, basically since the very first sanctions were imposed a couple of decades ago when it first started this nuclear business in the mid-2000s, particularly since the nuclear deal collapsed, the Obama-negotiated nuclear deal that was signed in 2015,. Particularly since then, trump obviously imposed really heavy sanctions. Biden was a little bit like, like, unserious about enforcing them, particularly on oil, and there are crazy charts and graphs out there showing a massive spike in Iranian oil exports, particularly on the black market, after Biden came into office. But you know the stranglehold on their economy remains and you know the rial, for example. Their currencies are basically worthless. It's sort of devalued, to the extent that I've been hearing that Iranians aren't even using cash anymore and they're going to the bazaar and buying gold like chunks of gold and keeping all their savings in gold because the cash just has no value. So, yeah, their economy is on its knees.
Speaker 5:The poverty levels in Iran I mean Iran is really a middle-class country. It's not a third-world country at all. It's very, very developed, high education levels, high literacy levels, but now apparently more than 50% of the country is below the poverty line, you know, and it was probably half of that a generation ago. So it's some. You know.
Speaker 5:It's really, really heartbreaking what they've done to the economy of the country and this is why you saw, you know, in a lot of the past protest movements, some of the chants they would use on the streets were, you know, not, not Syria, lebanon. I give my heart and soul to Iran, which means you're giving all of our money to Syria and Lebanon and you're not spending it on the taxpayers, on your own people. Largely that's oil money, because the Iranian economy is almost solely funded through oil and gas wealth. But there's a lot of resentment there that hundreds of billions have been given to terrorist groups across the Middle East and to the Assad regime and clients in Iraq and et cetera, and the Iranian people are literally starving and living below the poverty line.
Speaker 2:Just to close out, given everything we know about the Supreme Leader, about the regime and about the various factions that play within the IRGC, give us a sense of what a potential off-ramp for the regime might be out of this conflict.
Speaker 5:I think saving face, as you mentioned, is really important, and obviously it's relative. The amount of face that the regime States and European powers as we saw in the JCPOA earlier, which in all likelihood is going to curtail the nuclear ambitions of Iran entirely zero enrichment, zero building of any facilities whatsoever, this kind of thing, but, I guess, affords them the legitimacy of remaining in place as the rulers of Iran, as the regime calling the shots and, I guess, would afford some kind of security guarantee to Iran in the short term that Israel won't continue to attack them, that there will be a cessation of hostilities, potentially waivers of oil sanctions to enable them to rebuild, waivers of oil sanctions to enable them to rebuild this kind of thing could give them something of a face-saving gesture. I think, though, the regime's reputation internally, within its die-hard ideological supporters, is ruined, no matter what they do.
Speaker 2:Kylie, thank you so much for coming on. I feel really lucky to have spoken with someone Australian that has such a deep insight into Iranian politics and into what's going on, and thank you again, appreciate your time.
Speaker 5:Oh, thanks for having me on, dash. It's lovely to meet you as well, and you had some excellent questions. So, yeah, I'm really happy to be involved.
Speaker 2:That's it. For another week You've been listening to A Shame to Admit with me, Dash Lawrence.
Speaker 1:And me Tammy Sussman.
Speaker 2:This episode was mixed and edited by Nick King, with theme music by Donovan Jenks.
Speaker 1:As always. Thanks for your support. Stay safe and speak soon. Thank you.