Vinyl Maelstrom

The Ten Rules Guaranteeing Musical Success

• Ian Forth

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Some academic bod has analysed every US presidential election and worked out the Keys To Success. He claims to correctly predict every populist vote.

Can we do the same for musical success? We can have a go. This is my equivalent - The Ten Keys To Music Success. It's obligatory to say "You won't believe Number 7!", but in reality it's entirely credible.

See if you agree.

Be expertly briefed each week on a wide variety of intriguing musical topics.

Introduction

‘The keys to the White House is a prediction system for determining the outcome of presidential elections in the United States. It was developed by American historian Allan Lichtman and Russian geophysicist Vladimir Keilis-Borok in 1981 adapting prediction methods that the Russian had designed for earthquake prediction. The system is a 13 point checklist that assesses the situation of the United States and political system ahead of the election. When 5 or fewer items on the checklist are false the incumbent nominee is predicted to win but when six or more items on the checklist are false the challenging party nominee is predicted to win. Using the system Lichtman has correctly predicted the popular vote outcomes of each presidential election from 1994 to 2012.’

Not my words, but those of Wikipedia explaining Allan Lichtman’s Keys to the White House system. And it got me wondering. Is there a similar system we could devise for success in music? It's time for a medium sized dive.

The Medium Sized Dive

The first thing to say is that what constitutes success in music is time framed. We've gone from crooning to rock'n'roll to Beatle mania the glam rock the manufactured stars the punk to the new romantics the boy bands to the emergence of R&B, hip-hop and and rap dominating the charts.

Out of all that, though is it still possible to find a successful formula? I’ve constructed a slightly more modest “10 Keys to Pop Music Success”, which, if adapted, will guarantee you fame and fortune and everything that goes with those two impostors. Let's have an entirely reasonable discussion.

The Entirely Reasonable Discussion

1. A Formulaic Song that’s not an Identikit Song

Let’s start with the song itself. If you've ever looked in to what the formula for a successful book is you will discover the phrase cold “The same, but different”.

It's similar in the world of pop music. Research by many people can easily identify what’s the formula in most pop songs. Joe Bennett of the Washington Post put it this way. They stay in one key, are in 4/4 time, last between 3:00 and 5:00 minutes, are organised into chunks of four or 8 bars, have a repeating chorus played two to four times include the title sung at least three times, and they feature short melodic fragments that repeat a lot to help everyone to remember them.

What we've talked about there is essentially the hygiene factors that must be met for any pop song to succeed. Necessary, but not sufficient. Hence 9 other keys.

By the way, in the 60s and 70s during pop’s pioneer days, there were songs which in no way met those criteria and were also huge hits. Bohemian Rhapsody, A Space Oddity, the theme from Van Der Valk. Even Maggie May by Rod Stewart doesn't have a chorus. Amazing Grace by the Royal Scots Dragoon Guards was #1 for five weeks in 1972.

But the time for experimentation sadly is now over and music is typically becoming more formulaic, not less. But what are the other factors that we can introduce which will give the aspiring artist a guaranteed path to success?

2. Talent

Seems obvious. However by talent it's not necessarily the case that the best guitarist or the most in-tune vocalist triumphs. Artists such as Neil Young or Bob Dylan don't have classic voices. A myriad of other factors can sit in the house of talent. Charisma like supposedly the Gallagher brothers. Outrage like Johnny Rotten. Gimmickry like Kiss. A talent for social connection like Taylor Swift. Sex appeal like early Elvis or early Madonna. People often talk about the marathon shows that Bruce Springsteen puts on and sheer stamina is another form of talent.

3. Image

Creating an image is a risky business. However creating no image is far riskier. There are any number of bands perfectly proficient who could have had hits if they'd had an intriguing angle, almost any angle. Charlie XCX’s Brat album this year is a masterclass in creating a brand. It's a very good album in its own right but it far exceeded its expected reach by creating a carefully cultivated buzz which even reached the vice-president of the United States.

4. Resilience and Work Ethic

A few years ago Duo Lipa became a bit of a laughing stock for some of her dance moves. People still talk about Lana Del Rey's first appearance on Saturday Night Live and not in a favourable light. If you listen to the first live outings by Joy Division before they even were Joy Division I challenge anyone to detect the band that would go on to record Love Will Tear Us Apart and eventually Blue Monday. Eddie van Halen's brother remembers him as not being any better than he was at the guitar but just practising day and night. It's not enough to have talent or to understand how a song sells. You also have to know whether to stick or twist. The Go-Betweens kept going for six albums through the 1980s which were critically lauded to the skies. However they didn't sell very many copies. In the end they pulled the pin. You have to have resilience.

5. Be Great Live

Talking of resilience, Nick Drake gave up and sadly took his own life as a consequence of his lack of commercial breakthrough. But he was also completely incapable of playing live. Streaming has ensured that really the only way that bands can make money now is by live performance. It's no good to Nick Drake the world finally came around to see the brilliant creative genius that in fact he was. I saw another local band in Melbourne recently who were really good and were making a return to the stage after seven years. However they spent two or three minutes between each song retuning their guitar and had no stage patter. Nothing to do with the quality of their music, but you really need to work on your live performance now as you won’t sell much vinyl.

6. Technological Alignment

Know the technology.

With old-style radio you tuned in at random times or flicked across the dial, so listened to a song at any point during it. At some point people concluded that the real game was to repeat the chorus as often as feasible, in the same way advertisers get nervous if they make an ad which doesn’t repeat their brand name frequently. Now, however, more and more people play their Spotify playlists in the car or indeed at home, or when they’re working from home. So, for that reason we were for a while back to zero start times. However, in a plot twist, and even more significantly, what we now have is Tik-Tok driving the success of snippets of song, so there is a push to have memorable choruses and not much else.

So, one key is to ensure you’re across technological evolutions.

7. Timing

Sometimes it's all down to the timing. A good example of this is what happened during punk. Some artists and bands woke up in 1978 to discover that their record companies no longer wanted them. Fashion had dictated that certain sounds and artists were now unfashionable. Amazing Grace, Grandad by Clive Dunn or Ernie by Benny Hill, #1s in the early 70s wouldn’t even have been released in 1979.

A certain BPM range will often become popular, or certain types of sounds or processing might become popular for a time. It’s hard to listen to a lot of 80s production now with their love of gated reverb,  slap bass and Linn drums. Rappers were popular for a time, but not any more. Ditto autotune. When The Specials became popular, briefly A&R men all headed up on the train from Euston to find other Coventry bands.

However, as Tom Petty’s maxim "Don't bore us, get to the chorus!" remains close to universally applicable.

8. Start Local, Go International

Some bands suit local markets very well. You can go to their album launches at small to medium sized venues and they sell out. Take them out of their home town and it's a different story. This may not be a problem. The band may be happy enough serving a local community. But if they have national or certainly international aspirations they will probably need to adjust the formula of their music. A classic example of this is bands hoping to break America. Local audiences sometimes complain that a band’s sold out in inverted commas, but in reality they may simply no longer be writing songs about the streets of their home town.

9. Finance and Resources

Ideally, have Beyonce for your mum. But realistically, well, It’s no coincidence that many bands give up the ghost once its members graduate from college. Pop music is a fickle business and not many people can make a living out of it. It's not unreasonable for people to graduate and say well that was fun but I'm not going to pursue a career in music. No doubt the world has lost many bands who would have gone on to be great but as per the Go-Betweens above you can't exist on potential forever. Sadly also it's an unfair world. Some artists get a leg up. Nepo babies, if you will, have contacts in the record industry, their parents might be well networked, and this undoubtedly gives them the unfair advantage. But hey, life isn't fair. Meanwhile network like fury.

10. Mentors and Allies

Iggy Pop might have disappeared from view after the Stooges broke up in the mid-70s. However he had connected with David Bowie who believed in him and produced 2 classic albums in 1977 which helped him through a difficult time especially as he was recovering from heavy drug use. Because they were such nice guys Edgar Wright finally realised his dream of making a documentary about Sparks which has served as a late Indian summer filip in their lengthy career. By playing the game a band might secure a gig as support act to a stadium band which might make all the difference in their embryonic career. We are social beasts and groups don't exist in isolation. A friend of mine has pointed out that bands these days are much more networked and less competitive in his opinion than they used to be, subbing in for each other on the nights when the bass guitarist is unavailable etc, which can only be a good thing.