Paramount Wealth Perspectives

Fedspeak Continues - 10/14/24

Christopher Coyle

I don't know. Game on. Hello, everyone. Welcome to paramount wealth perspectives. Your go-to podcast for the latest updates on global markets and current economic events. This is your host, Chris coil. Each week we strive to bring you expert analysis on market trends, economic shifts. And key financial developments from around the world. Whether you're an investor business leader. Or simply curious about the global economy. Our podcast is here to keep you informed and ahead of the curve. Now let's dive into the markets and explore what shaping the world of finance today. Here with us today. We have Scott Tremlett chief investment officer and managing partner at paramount associates, wealth management. Scott. Looking back at last week, what are some major events you would like to highlight? Thank you, Chris. Well, big picture. The S and P 500 did end the week up a little over 1%. The S and P 500 actually notched as 45th all time highs of the year. Last Friday. Overseas European markets were mixed. Last Tuesday, China actually posted its largest one day decline since 2008. And did snap a two week streak and gains. For the week. Chinese markets were down over six and a half percent. Treasury yields continue to increase. After fed minutes showed that the half percent rate cut was not universal. As well. Atlanta fed president Bostic mentioned that he is open to the idea of skipping a rate cut in November. Along with treasury rates rising, the dollar appreciated as the perceived path of rate cuts has eased. Interesting. So it looks like your forecast about the path of rate cuts are proving accurate. What do you think will happen next? Well, Chris, maybe I'm right so far, but everything is data dependent at this point. Before the next fed meeting, we still have their preferred inflation gauge PCE. And a handful of employment or jobless claims reports. Last week's consumer inflation report was a little worse than expected. However, the producer inflation report was a little better than consensus. Hmm. It seems like a mixed bag of inflation data. So what else happened last week? Yeah. I mentioned China earlier. It does seem like market participants are reversing course on that short term trade. In fact, the Chinese finance ministers briefing on Saturday, really lacked details around stimulus. Disappointing investors. Back here in the U S consumer sentiment was little change month to month. With long run business conditions, lifting to the highest reading and six months. At the same time. You're ahead. Inflation expectations. Did tech hire. We also started third quarter earnings season headlined by some of the big banks on Friday. We are early in the earning season, but optimism is growing that third quarter earnings may beat the reduced expectations of 4.4% year over year growth. On Friday. Uh, publication stated that based on earning so far. They expect 7% plus earnings growth. That would be above consensus. Earning season. That always is interesting. You commented on earnings last week. Could you refresh us on what is needed from earnings through the end of this year? What I feel is most important for the earnings going forward. It's for the results to support current market valuations. Throughout the year price earnings multiples have increased as has the stock market. When multiples increase, that means that prices of stocks have gone up versus earnings. Making the stocks more expensive. This is called multiple expansion and happens in anticipation of a growing economy. What is needed now, in my opinion is for earnings to increase either bringing the multiples down or at the very least supporting where prices are now. It's hard to be negative on the state of the us economy. There were other countries around the world that may have more upside in my mind. However I'm cautiously optimistic and have recently added to us equity exposure in portfolios. That makes sense. Thanks Scott. So what are you looking at this week? This week, we have a busy week of earnings with 43 S and P 500 companies reporting. We had the New York feds empire manufacturing survey and the Philly fed index. On Thursday, we have us retail sales and industrial production. As well as jobless claims. We have two us housing reports this week, which should be interesting considering the recent rise in interest rates. Overseas. We have India inflation numbers. China reports, GDP, industrial production, house price, index, and retail sales in the UK. We have unemployment and retail sales. We have Eurozone industrial production and the European central bank announcement on Thursday. Would they expect it to cut rates by 0.25%. Bringing their deposit rate down to 3.2, 5%. Sounds like quite the busy week. So what are you expecting to drive markets this week? Well, this week earnings may give us some insight into the true health of the U S economy. In Taiwan, semiconductor is expected to report earnings on Thursday. This might provide some guidance on that semi trade. But I think the biggest market moving events will be remarks this week from the fed. As to fed reserve governors and four fed bank presidents are scheduled to speak this week at various events. The federal reserve and its path moving forward. We'll continue to be the biggest story. As we move forward with their plan to ease and help the economy potentially fend off a weakening job market. Well, we will certainly keep an eye out on those and I'm sure we will have plenty to discuss next Monday. For now, thanks for tuning into paramount wealth perspectives. Stay informed. Stay ahead. And join us next week for more key updates shaping the global economy.