Thanksgiving & Guest Speaker (Emily Roland) Announced - 11/25/24

Paramount Wealth Perspectives is your trusted podcast for global market insights and financial updates. Hosted by Chris Coyle, each episode brings you expert analysis on economic trends, market movements, and key developments shaping the financial world.

This week, Chris is joined by Scott Tremlett, who provides updates on U.S. markets rebounding with consumer staples leading the charge, mixed interest rate movements, and housing data reflecting regional influences like hurricanes. The team dives into strong third-quarter earnings growth and expectations for the holiday shopping season, highlighting millennials as major contributors. Looking ahead, fourth-quarter earnings are projected to surge, with financials and pharmaceuticals driving growth, as the S&P 500 is anticipated to end 2025 higher.

Don’t miss next week’s episode featuring Emily Roland, Chief Investment Strategist at John Hancock. Tune in weekly to stay ahead of global market trends and economic insights, and have a fantastic Thanksgiving!

Transcript

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Intro song game on. Hello, everyone. Welcome to paramount wealth perspectives. Your go-to podcast for the latest updates on global markets and current economic events. This is your host, Chris Coyle. Each week we strive to bring you expert analysis on market trends, economic shifts. And key financial developments from around the world. Whether you're an investor business leader. Or simply curious about the global economy. Our podcast is here to keep you informed and ahead of the curve. Now let's dive into the markets and explore what shaping the world of finance today. Here with us today. We have Scott Tremlett chief investment officer and managing partner at paramount associates, wealth management. Scott. Looking back to last week. What are some major events you would like to highlight? Thanks, Chris. Us stocks were higher last week. Bouncing back from the previous week's losses. Big tech. Was mixed and the equal weight S and P 500 outperformed the official index. Illustrating a broadening of markets in the U S. Consumer staples led markets last week. Headline by Walmart. Followed by materials, real estate and utilities. The dollar strengthened and interest rates were mixed as the short end rows with changes in the fed rate. Cut expectations. Futures are now implying almost a 50% chance that the fed does not cut in December. And the tenure dropped with worsening conflicts abroad. Us manufacturing did rise slightly, but continues to stay in contraction territory. Services in the U S gain strength and came in above expectations. Private sector output in the U S rose to its highest level since first quarter 2022. Housing starts dropped in October, led by fewer starts in the south and the Northeast. It's possible. We are seeing hurricane effects there. As existing home sales jumped above consensus. For the first year over year increase since July of 2021. The university of Michigan's index of consumer sentiment. Increased for the fourth straight month. They feel the November number was largely influenced by an uptick in sentiment amongst Republicans, since the election. Europe seems to be missing its marks. And once again, disappointed investors. With below consensus, composite PMI. We are also seeing caution in the UK, both on the business capital expenditures. And retail spending. Well, thanks Scott for walking us through what happened around the global markets last week. What about what happened with earnings? As for earnings, Chris, we are 95% of the way through the S and P 503rd quarter earning season. And nine more firms are reporting this week. Overall. Earnings growth rate for the third quarter stands at 5.8% versus the 4.3% expected. However earnings growth, revenue, growth, sales expectations, and the strength of the beets are falling below historical averages. Even the video who did beat on sales. Underwhelmed the next quarters revenue guidance. Overall. Earnings sales and revenues. Are all slowing. Thanks, Scott. Last week you had mentioned, there were some reads on the us consumer. What exactly did you see there? Last week. We did gather some insights, Chris. Starting with earnings. Walmart, TJ Maxx, Ross stores and gap, all rallied. With better than expected earnings reports. On the flip side, target missed on most key metrics with weakness in their higher margin. Discretionary. And stating that consumers were becoming more promotion seeking. We also received information on the upcoming holiday season expectations. It looks like this year, holiday shopping will be spearheaded by the millennials. According to trans union. 63% of millennials, many with children of their own at this point. So they plan to spend the same or more than they did last year. Increases in income and expectations that wages will continue to increase. I seem to be offsetting any changes in the price of goods. In fact, even as credit card debt now tops$1.1 trillion. How they shoppers expect to spend just over$1,750. Up 8% from last year, according to Deloitte, how they retail survey. Most shoppers, nearly 75%. Use credit cards to buy holiday gifts. Believe it or not. Nearly 30% of holiday shoppers that were surveyed in September by NerdWallet. Had not yet paid off the gifts they purchased last year. I won't even get into installment arrangements, like buy now pay later. But I did see a report. That was expected that nearly$1 billion of new by now. I pay later. Arrangements are expected on cyber Monday alone. Well, as you mentioned, Scott, it seems like the us consumer is poised to spend more during this holiday season. So what exactly does this mean for the rest of this year and even into next year? Remember when I said that the third quarter earnings growth number stands at 5.8% so far, Chris. Here's another, believe it or not a statistic fourth quarter earnings. Are expected to more than double. To 12% growth. If 12% is the number. That will mark the largest year over year earnings growth rate since the end of 2021. Much like back in 2021. Most of this expected growth comes from weak year-over-year comps, particularly in financials and pharmaceuticals. Financials and banking are expected to be the largest contributors to earnings growth for the fourth quarter. As for 2025, many of the biggest names out there are calling for the S and P 500 to end 2025. 10% higher than where we are now. Today alone. I've read three major publications. All stating that same number. We will see. As some of the earnings expectations seem pretty frothy to me in the face of revenues and sales dropping. As I say this, the other side of my brain is reminding me to remember that the us consumer is still driving almost 80% of the growth in the U S economy. Thanks. Scott all continued to check in with you, whether or not the U S economy is able to stay in line with the 2021 us earnings growth. What are we looking at this week? This week, Chris, we have two home price numbers. We have new home sales. And the conference board's consumer confidence index all on Tuesday. Wednesday, we have a us GDP print. Jobless claims. Pending home sales and the Fed's preferred inflation gauge. PCE. Oversees this week. We have the bank of Korea announcement where they're expected to leave rates on change. Canada India, Switzerland and France GDP on Friday. And the monthly manufacturing numbers from around the world. Start on Saturday. Eurozone economic sentiment is on Thursday, but hopefully none of you are paying attention to that. And instead you're spending the day with your families for Thanksgiving. Remember you can't control everything. But you can control being thankful for the things and people. That you have in your life. Oh, yeah. And go pack. Go. Well go Packo. And if you're from Colorado, Then go Broncos. Now I would like to announce our first guest speaker on the paramount wealth perspectives podcast for next week. Emily Roland. She is the chief investment strategist at John Hancock. Emily is frequently featured on CNBC and Bloomberg TV. She is often quoted in the wall street journal. Barons and the associated press. Emily is a highly rated keynote speaker. And we can't wait to hear what she has to say. For now stay informed. Stay ahead. And join us next week for more key updates shaping the global economy. Thank you and everyone else for tuning in. And we hope you have an absolutely fantastic Thanksgiving.