Decoding 2023 Fantasy Football Quarterback Surprises: ADP Insights and Unexpected Top 10

Uncover the secrets of the 2023 fantasy football quarterback landscape with us, Zach Waldron and John Miller (aka J-MiL), as we promise to decode the mysteries behind quarterback ADP and their unexpected season finishes. Ever wondered why Deshaun Watson was picked over Aaron Rodgers, or how Baker Mayfield emerged as a top-10 fantasy quarterback? We’ve got the answers you’re looking for. Join our discussion as we dissect the average draft positions in both single quarterback and superflex leagues, revealing surprising shifts and strategic insights. Our deep dive into the quarterback hierarchy puts the spotlight on top picks like Patrick Mahomes, Josh Allen, and Jalen Hurts while questioning the draft choices of underperformers such as Justin Herbert and Joe Burrow.

Expect the unexpected as we explore how quarterbacks like Jordan Love, Brock Purdy, and Tua Tagovailoa exceeded expectations and outshone many high-profile names. The unpredictable twists that make fantasy football both thrilling and frustrating are on full display, as we debate the implications of these surprising performances. We'll also provide strategic considerations for playoff success and offer a fresh perspective on the ever-evolving fantasy football scene. Tune in to navigate the twists and turns of the 2023 fantasy football quarterback rankings with us, and discover how these insights can transform your future drafts and strategy.

Transcript

Speaker 1: 0:10

Welcome to the Fantasy Football Archivers podcast with your host, zach Waldron, and John Miller, aka J Mil.

Zach Waldron: 0:22

Hello and welcome to the very first episode of the Fantasy Football Archivers. My name is Zach Waldron, with my co-host, jay ill.

Zach Waldron: 0:30

Hey, hey

Zach Waldron: 0:30

And today's episode we will be breaking down the 2023 ADP versus top 10 finishes for quarterbacks. Jumping right into it breaking down, we're going to be going off quarterback ADP. For all of our listeners who do not know what ADP means, that is average draft position. To start things off, we're going to be going off with single quarterback ADP..

Zach Waldron: 0:51

Number one will be Patrick Mahomes at 13.3, josh Allen at 20.4, jalen Hurts at 33.7, joe Burrow at 35.7, justin Fields at 44.9, justin Herber at 46, trevor Lawrence at 53.8, dak Prescott at 88.5, and then Deshaun Watson rounding out at 89.6. To then jump over to Superflex ADP Patrick Mahomes is 1.2, josh Allen is 2.7, jalen Hurts is 3.8, joe Burrow is 5.2, lamar Jackson is 6.1, justin Herbert is 8, justin Fields is 11.5, trevor Lawrence is 14, deshaun Watson is 23.7. And Dak Prescott is 28.2. J-mill, go and compare him between single quarterback and super flex. Does anything jump out to you on how the ADPs do?

J-MiL: 1:56

Very.

J-MiL: 1:57

Yeah, when I'm looking at it right off the bat, I'm noticing that Lamar Jackson and Justin Fields took hits when it came to a super flex league, and it kind of makes sense to me because they're both very mobile quarterbacks who have both had some level of injury history. So when I'm looking at it, super flex quarterbacks run out quicker. If it's a 12 man league and you're starting two quarterbacks, that's 24 of the 32 starting. There's not 24 good quarterbacks in this league. So you have to be more selective in a super flex and go with a guy that you think is going to be available the full season, whereas if it's just a one quarterback league, you know, even as a 16 person league, if you draft someone who's an injury risk, you can afford to draft. Like last year people were probably looking at guys like Jared Goff and Brock Purdy as their quarterback too, or scooping up one of the rookies as their quarterback too, and that that would have worked out for them if there were times of injury for any of the mobile quarterbacks also look at it.

Zach Waldron: 2:58

Dak Prescott also took a hit between him and Deshaun Watson with pick nine and ten for rankings.

J-MiL: 3:04

Yeah, I mean, I'm not sure what's going on there because, other than the major injury, I'm not really. Yeah, I can't explain the Dak Prescott one. Honestly, I can't even explain Deshaun Watson being on there over. I'm going to guess. Like an Aaron Rodgers, I'm a little shocked that Watson was being drafted before someone like that.

Zach Waldron: 3:25

It is surprising, but your top five are mainly all the same, except for Lamar and Joe Burrow just switching a rank or two. But besides that, your top five quarterbacks getting taken off are all the same.

J-MiL: 3:40

And to be fair, we're really nitpicking to say that they switched because they were going two picks apart in one quarterback's leagues and they go one pick apart the opposite way in two quarterback leagues. So it's one of those things where we're kind of nitpicking to say they even switched right, yeah, so going over to your top 10.

Zach Waldron: 3:58

Quarterback finishes J- MiL can you guess those top 10 finishes.

J-MiL: 4:03

Okay, can I guess them? So I'm going to look at this ADP really quick and I'm going to try to figure out how many of these guys actually cashed in on a top 10 season. So when I'm looking at Patrick Mahomes, I don't think Patrick Mahomes cashed a top 10 season. That Kansas City offense just wasn't good enough in 2023. So I'm going to go with. He. Didn't cash the top 10 season. Josh Allen definitely did. Jalen Hurts definitely did Lamar Jackson better of in his MVP season. Joe Burrow was injured too much in 2023, so he's definitely not there.

J-MiL: 4:39

Justin Fields, I'm going to say, did not end up in the top 10. Justin Herbert probably squeaks in towards the end. I'm not really remembering too much that jumps out off of Justin Herbert one way or another. So I'll make my call on Justin Herbert after I go with guys that I think probably snuck in. Trevor Lawrence, I don't think, held that value. Dak Prescott held the value, if I'm correct, and Deshaun Watson didn't. So I'm saying that Allen Hurts, jackson and Dak definitely go on.

J-MiL: 5:17

Now let's see the questionable ones. For Herbert and Fields, I would like to guess that both Purdy and Goff made the top 10. So that's two of the spots right there. I would like to guess that both Purdy and Goff made the top 10. So that's two of the spots right there. I would like to guess that CJ Stroud snuck into the bottom of the top 10. So I have three more spots left to go to a, I think, to a plate enough to make it into the top 10. So that's two more spots to go. At this point in time when I'm thinking over everything, uh, kirk Cousins missed time Just trying to go everywhere and everywhere. And let's see, I think Justin Herbert remained in the top 10. And I have one more guess for the top 10., and that would be I don't know, I don't have that guess.

Zach Waldron: 6:06

Okay, so your top 10 finishes for the 2023 season was Josh Allen at number one, jalen Hurts at number two, dak Prescott at number three, lamar Jackson at number four, jordan Love at number five Well, there's the one I didn't get. Brock Purdy at number six, jared Goff at number seven, patrick Mahomes at number eight, tua Tanga-Vailola at number nine, if I pronounced that correctly. And number 10, to round everything out for the top 10 was Baker Mayfield.

J-MiL: 6:34

Baker Mayfield. So I missed Mahomes, love and Mayfield and I had a no guess and I got CJ Stroud wrong and I got Justin Herbert wrong. So Mahomes did stay in the top 10, even with a underwhelming offensive year. That's kind of a huge testament.

Zach Waldron: 6:52

That's the one that jumps out to me the most, to be honest especially for being the first quarterback drafted in the 2023 season, especially for single quarterback and super flex.

J-MiL: 7:01

Okay so down the eight. That's definitely a hit.

Zach Waldron: 7:04

I'm just saying that it's not as bad of a hit as I initially thought it was yeah, it is true, but you know you have five quarterbacks who weren't even drafted in your top 10 for ADP in Jordan Love, Brock Purdy, jared Goff, Tua and Baker.

Zach Waldron: 7:21

Man Baker just feels like a crapshoot, like why even bother taking one of the big ones if Baker Mayfield's got to finish ahead of Justin Herbert? Baker Mayfield's got to finish ahead of Justin Herbert.

Zach Waldron: 7:32

Justin Herbert, justin Fields, deshaun Watson, trevor Lawrence and Joe Burrow, even though Joe Burrow was basically hurt for half the season.

J-MiL: 7:43

Yeah, we're giving Joe Burrow a pass and honestly I just think Deshaun Watson was a wrong ADP. But really, when it comes down to it, the Trevor Lawrence one is really surprising. The Justin Herbert one is really surprising. I'm not giving them a pass at all. I'm not going to give Mahomes a pass for finishing seven positions behind where he's drafted.

Zach Waldron: 8:02

No, I wouldn't give him a pass, especially if you're the first quarterback going in both. Any type of league that you're in, you cannot finish down at eight.

J-MiL: 8:11

But should he have been the first? Hasn't Allen historically been better in fantasy?

Zach Waldron: 8:16

In my opinion, the first three quarterbacks, if I was to put them in order, should have been Josh Allen, Jalen Hurts, then possibly Patrick Mahomes.

J-MiL: 8:24

I get why you would still put Patrick second, but at the same time it's I don't know. I feel like Josh Allen should have definitely been first in adp. But I guess I'm not the average drafter. No, well, I'm definitely not, because I. I'm the person who, uh oh, I started with lamar jackson in my redraft league but I put jared goff on the bench behind him. Yeah, no, in a two quarterback league I wouldn't have done. I wouldn't have gone with lamar jackson, I would have gone with something safer. But because I could get jared but got coughed in the later rounds, I was okay taking jackson always like.

Zach Waldron: 8:58

For me, my in my super flex league that I was in my very first pick was josh allen, which I think should have went number one, like we both agreed on. Yeah, not patrick mahomes going number one. And then, but literally you have justin fields. I don't think should have got a pass, especially in 2023 offseason. Said he's going to do all these performance, do all these numbers pass.

J-MiL: 9:20

4500 passing yards doesn't do a thing but we hadn't seen proof that he could do it no, we don't in time whereas we had seen proof from justin herbert yeah, justin herbert, he did get hurt a little bit.

Zach Waldron: 9:33

He did get the injury bug with all of his wide receivers. So that's a little pass, but it's still a little. You're this top 10 fantasy quarterback getting drafted every year and you're not performing as a top 10 quarterback.

J-MiL: 9:48

Yeah, I mean there was a point in time, if I remember correctly, going into the 2022 season, that Justin Herbert was being considered up there with Patrick Mahomes and Josh Allen. It wasn't Jalen Hurts, or in some people's minds it was the big four with Hurts and Herbert there. In 2023, we're only a year removed, I guess 2023 results. We're only two years removed from the 2022 ADP, where Justin Herbert was many times getting taken as a third quarterback off the board. So that's why I'm not giving him a pass and I'm a little more willing to give it to a Justin Fields or to Sean Watson because, frankly, I wasn't necessarily a believer, despite the fact that I want, okay, anyone who knows that I was a Fields believer and still am to an extent, but at the same time it wasn't, I could see a case against him.

Zach Waldron: 10:38

Yeah, I don't think he had the right coaching staff for him to produce to where he could be.

J-MiL: 10:43

Well, I mean going into 2024, he's going to have Mike Tomlin, so we'll see if that's the right coaching staff right.

Zach Waldron: 10:52

But he'll also be going into a quarterback battle with Russell Wilson.

J-MiL: 10:59

We've got jokes, we do tricks.

Zach Waldron: 11:01

But yeah, did you have any of these top ten finishes of quarterbacks?

J-MiL: 11:07

Obviously, I play in too many leagues to not have some of these guys, but if you want to know ones who helped me make relevant deep runs, brock Purdy was on a championship team for me last year, ironically enough with Justin Fields in the Superflex. So I get it. He didn't hit ADP, that he didn't hit his results, but he still was a good number two. Because I had Brock Purdy at the number one In another championship run, I traded both Lamar Jackson and Jared Goff away and I ended my season, probably starting Baker Mayfield. It was one of those accidental championship runs because I was not good enough to be there. I clinched a division with an awful record but at the same time got an upset in the first round, got an upset in the second round and just get into the playoffs. Right, that's what you should do in fantasy football just get into the playoffs.

Zach Waldron: 12:10

Yeah, and so Baker Mayfield's ADP. He wasn't getting drafted, was he? No Child was 255.6.

J-MiL: 12:19

Hey man, if you had me guessed, I probably would have said something like 500.

Zach Waldron: 12:24

But literally you have other quarterbacks like Jimmy Garoppolo getting drafted over him Mack Jones, ryan Tannehill, desmond Ritter.

J-MiL: 12:34

All over Baker Mayfield. I drafted some of those guys over him as a second quarterback in leagues.

Zach Waldron: 12:40

And the crazy thing is Baker Mayfield finishes in the top 10 for quarterbacks, which is insane. You don't even have a starting, not even a starting quarterback or a tight end for the New Orleans Saints saints and tason hill getting drafted over him. Wow, like that's mind-blowing.

J-MiL: 12:58

I mean I knew I threw a few late dart throws and scooped up a baker in a few scenarios, but it wasn't one of those. It wasn't any belief in him like like never thinking top 10. It was just one of those things where I genuinely feel like anyone can win in the current. How do I say this without sounding like I'm being blasphemous against Tom Brady? I feel like anyone could actually do well with the Titans, not Titans with the Buccaneers offense from the period of time where both Chris Godwin and Mike Evans were receiving targets.

Zach Waldron: 13:34

Yeah, and then he also had Rashad White, who he fed the ball to.

J-MiL: 13:40

Oh yeah, I'm just going back to when Godwin hit his stride and Evans you know. Obviously Evans has been there the whole time. I feel anyone during that time could have done well with the Bucs offense.

Zach Waldron: 13:51

Yeah, and then if you were to go back to look at super flexed ADP for him, he was at 154.7. So he's still 100 picks fewer than single quarterback and he's still going undrafted in most leagues.

J-MiL: 14:08

Yeah, I think I had him maybe one or two, maybe for a week or two and as a streamer, as a quarterback, on bi-week, but besides that I don't think I had them on any roster there were a lot of leagues last year where I went from uh, where I started with justin herbert or lamar jackson, just uh, just for the heads up, and many where I was fortunate enough to get CJ Stroud to later on, so Stroud when he was, because when Stroud finally came to he definitely was performing well, but I was able to make a whole Stroud-Herbert situation work in one league which Stroud could have won you the league.

Zach Waldron: 14:49

Yeah, and it's like for me, out of the top 10 ADP quarterbacks, I got stuck with Joe Burrow who demolished my season. My season was over after, I think, week five.

J-MiL: 15:00

see, I'm never fortunate or unfortunate enough to be with a Josh Allen, a Patrick Mahomes, a Joe Burrow, because I'll typically wait until the fifth round or later before I start hunting quarterback, and I just never get the option.

Zach Waldron: 15:15

And is this for single quarterback and super flex?

J-MiL: 15:18

Yeah, for the most part. I definitely have had Jalen Hurts shares, but typically they're acquired during trade.

Zach Waldron: 15:25

Okay so I know for me when, especially super flex, if I have those top five pick pick, if one of those quarterbacks, especially the top five in, like josh allen, jalen, hurts lamar jackson, if they're there I'm gonna try to grab them. But besides that I'm gonna try to wait and build my team around superstar players, even though quarterbacks do run out very fast. Quarterbacks do run out very fast.

J-MiL: 15:50

Quarterbacks do run out very fast but if you're willing to devote those one of the draft strategies I typically take if you're willing to devote those seventh to 12th rounds to acquiring the three best quarterbacks in that range, it can work out for you, especially if you got major advantages in the first, second and third rounds, with important positions Going into this year. If you're able to scoop a and it's tight end premium if you're able to scoop a Justin Jefferson and a Sam Laporta.

Zach Waldron: 16:19

And you're talking about the 2024 season correct.

J-MiL: 16:21

Yeah, yes, my apologies. Yes, going into the 2024 season. If you're able to scoop a Justin Jefferson, sam Laporta, you know, it kind of makes sense, especially if you can get a Brock Purdy in the fifth yeah it.

Zach Waldron: 16:37

That's a big succeed in my mind if you could able to get that yeah, take a risk on an Anthony Richardson yeah, especially that might be closer to the third.

J-MiL: 16:46

I mean, I know some of his ADPs are going off the charts, but I don't know. I don't think that there's people that I'm playing with that are taking Anthony Richardson in the first round.

Zach Waldron: 16:56

Not for Superflex and for a single quarterback. I don't think Anthony Richardson went until the later, later rounds. Yeah, especially because he was a rookie last year. Yep, but to close out our show, just going to go back over what we talked about. We talked about the quarterback ADP for single quarterback and super flex versus top 10 finishes, and just go over the top 10 finishes and your top 10 quarterback ADP was Patrick Mahomes, josh Allen, jalen Hurts, lamar Jackson, joe Burrow, justin Fields, justin Herbert, trevor Lawrence, dak Prescott, deshaun Watson. That is single quarterback. And then Patrick Mahomes, josh Allen, jalen Hurts, joe Burrow, lamar Jackson, justin Herbert, justin Fields, trevor Lawrence, and your top 10 finishes again was Josh Allen, jalen Hurts, dak Prescott, lamar Jackson, jordan Love, brock Purdy, jared Goff, patrick Mahomes, tua Tangivaloa and Baker Mayfield. That is the end of our first episode and thanks again. My name is Zach Waldron. Co-host J-Mill. Hey, hey, and thank you again. Have a good one.

Speaker 1: 18:26

Thank you for listening to another episode of the Fantasy Football Archivers. You can listen to us on Spotify and Apple and follow us on X at the FF Archivers, and all of our information will be in the show notes.