The Fantasy Football Archivers
The Fantasy Football Archivers will be taking a deep dive looking at the past Fantasy Football season to compare the ADP VS top 10 finishes for Quarterbacks, Running backs, Wide receivers, Tight Ends. Where Zach Waldron and Jon Miller aka J-MiL will be helping you compare the previous season to make you better at drafting for the years to come. Each season will consist of 4 episodes and the episodes will be released every 2 weeks.
ADP stands for Average Draft Position
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The Fantasy Football Archivers
Decoding 2023 Fantasy Football Running Back Surprises: ADP Insights and Unexpected Top 10
Unlock the secrets of fantasy football's 2023 running back revelations with us, Zach Waldron and J-MiL, as we decode the enigmatic relationship between Average Draft Position (ADP) and actual top 10 finishes. Ever wondered how some players defied the odds while others fell short of expectations? Discover the surprising placements of Najee Harris and Ramondre Stevenson and reminisce with us about the draft journeys of Christian McCaffrey, Austin Ekeler, and Bijan Robinson. We'll share our insights on who truly dominated the field, from the expected powerhouse performances to those that took everyone by surprise, like Saquon Barkley and Josh Jacobs.
Join our lively discussion as we highlight the standout seasons and unexpected twists that defined the 2023 fantasy football landscape. From the brave rise of players like Travis Etienne and Raheem Mostert amidst their team's challenges to the pivotal contributions of Breece Hall and Kyren Williams, we'll explore the intricacies that shaped their seasons. We also celebrate the steadfast reliability of veteran Joe Mixon and marvel at the continued dominance of Christian McCaffrey. Looking forward, we ponder the potential of emerging stars Jameer Gibbs and Kyren Williams to shatter expectations in future seasons, promising a thrilling journey for any fantasy football enthusiast.
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Welcome to the Fantasy Football Archivers Podcast with your host, zach Waldron, and John Miller, aka J Mill.
Speaker 2:Hello and welcome to the second episode of the Fantasy Football Archives. My name is Zach Waldron, with your co-host, jay Mill. Hey, hey, today's episode we're going to be looking back at the 2023 season for ADP versus top 10 finishes, for running backs and for all listeners who don't know what ADP means, that is average draft position. So, to start off today's episode, we're going to be talking about running backs and going over their ADP. To start it off, you have Christian McCaffrey at 2.9. Austin Eckler for 4.4. Bijan Robinson at 8.9. Saquon Barkley at 10.2. Nick Chubb at 11. Derek Henry at 16.8. Josh Jacobs at 19.2. Tony Pollard at 16.8. Josh Jacobs at 19.2. Tony Pollard at 21.5. Najee Harris at 29.3. Ramondre Stevenson at 30.7., and that is for single quarterback leagues.
Speaker 2:Then for Superflex, christian McCaffrey is at 7.2. Austin Eckler is at 13. Bijan Robinson is at 16.5. Saquon Barkley is at 18. Nick Chubb is at 21.3. Derrick Henry is at 24.8. Josh Jacobs is at 30.4. Tony Pollard is at 33. Najee Harris is at 39.7. And Ramond J Stevenson is at 38.4. J-mill, does any of this surprise you? On where they're getting drafted?
Speaker 3:Well, I mean going into the season there was definitely. It's not surprising that most of these guys were on this list. I am a little curious as to why Superflex made a difference in Najee Harris going after Ramondre Stevenson. So I guess it doesn't really make any sense to me that Superflex would change the way a running back would get drafted. But I guess they're close enough anyway at 29.3 versus 30.7 and then 38.4 to 39.7. That I guess it was just kind of like pick your poison at that point in time, which really, when it comes down to it, it feels like most running backs are most seasons. But this list from what I remember in drafting in 2023, this looked like a pretty standard list. So I guess a little surprised that Bijan was going ahead of Saquon Barkley. But as somebody who was drafting Bijan ahead of Saquon Barkley, I guess I shouldn't be surprised.
Speaker 2:I'm not exactly surprised either on this list. Maybe just a little bit on, like you said, with Najee Harris, ramondre Stevenson, on that switch compared to single quarterback and super flex, but besides that, everyone else that is getting drafted for the 2023 season seems on right on where they were getting drafted.
Speaker 3:Yeah, I mean for the 2023 season seems on right on where they were getting drafted. Yeah, I mean, again, there's some personal preference things that, like I wasn't touching Najee Harris or Ramondre Stevenson last season, to be completely honest, and there were a few other players on here that I would have been avoiding. I guess it's a little surprising not to see Joe Mixon versus a Najee Harris or Ramondre Stevenson, but again, we're kind of nitpicking at this point in time.
Speaker 2:Yeah, it's too early in the show to nitpick all these players, especially if we're just going over the ADP. Yeah, we will now be getting into the top 10 finishes for running backs for the 2023 season. J-mill, can you guess any of those?
Speaker 3:CMC definitely was in the top 10, so I'm not even going to question that one. Wow, looking down this list, eckler did not return top 10. I know that for a fact. Nick Chubb was injured. Derrick Henry did not have a Derrick Henry season, so I'm going to guess he finished outside of the top 10. Bijan man it had to be. If Arthur Smith would have used him correctly, it definitely would have been top 10. It had to be close. But I'm going to guess Bichon barely missed and I'm going to guess that Saquon Barkley barely made. So, going down this list, josh Jacobs I honestly care. I mean, I know that Harris and Stevenson are not there anymore and I would guess that Pollard definitely didn't make it either. So the only one I'm really a toss up on would be Josh Jacobs. I'm kind of just drawing a blank on what Josh Jacobs was in 2023 at this current moment, so, but I definitely think that. So, as far as guessing who replaced him there, see, I know when we were having a conversation at one point in time, that I've been sleeping on Brees Hall, so I'm assuming that Brees Hall is definitely still there, and I think the reception total was there for Rashad White in the top 10.
Speaker 3:Jameer Gibbs started too late. Joe Mixon I mentioned before, so maybe Mixon creeps into the top 10. I'm trying to think through top running back performances. I'm not sure A-Chain did enough to get there. I'm not sure that. I'm not even sure how many running backs I've covered at this point in time, but really when I'm thinking through, I doubt. I don't think Raheem Mostert did enough, but he might've. As far as like Raheem Mostert did enough in games he played, but he you know what let's go with an outside gamble one he might've played enough.
Speaker 2:So maybe Raheem Mostert man, I'm doubting Jerome Ford, I'm doubting anyone in that division so basically you're saying out of the top 10 in ADP, you only think CMC Christian McCaffrey, cmc finished in the top 10.
Speaker 3:I think it's close for Saquon Barkley and Bijan Robinson and probably close for, uh, josh Jacobs too. So if I had to guess, two of the three of them made it in with him.
Speaker 2:Okay, so your top ten for top ten 2023, running back finishes were Chris McCaffrey at number one, Brees Hall at number two, Travis Etienne at number three.
Speaker 3:Yeah, I didn't remember that one.
Speaker 2:Rashad White at number four.
Speaker 3:Not too surprising.
Speaker 2:Raheem Mostert at number five oh, he did. Okay, joe Mixon at number six. Okay, kyron Williams at number seven. Wow, how did I?
Speaker 3:forget Kyron. Kyron actually helped me win a championship last year and he had great rookie numbers. Oh it helped me win a championship in 2023.
Speaker 2:Derek Henry at number eight. Oh, so Henry did stay in. Yes, b John Robinson at number nine.
Speaker 3:Okay.
Speaker 2:And then Jameer Gibbs at number 10.
Speaker 3:Okay, so Gibbs did come in with late because his numbers early in the season weren't really there. Just out of curiosity. Saquon and Josh Jacobs borderline close.
Speaker 2:I'm going to look them up right now to see exactly where they did finish in the top 10 or the top finishes for the 2023 season.
Speaker 3:I'm going to guess they probably finished like 20 fantasy points out of being in the top 10, because I'm guessing that, you know, because Bijan snuck in near the end there. I guess Gibbs did great and well enough in the second half of the season to where he was able to sneak in.
Speaker 2:So Saquon Barkley finished at running back 13. Okay, and then Josh Jacobs finished at running back 28.
Speaker 3:Oh wow. So this Josh Jacobs season that I'm not remembering? I'm not remembering because it wasn't memorable at all.
Speaker 2:That's a big drop-off for those two compared to their ADPs.
Speaker 3:Well, yes, but I wonder, if we were looking at projections as opposed to ADP, if Saquon was relatively close to his projection?
Speaker 2:That could be possibly for another show. That could be possibly for another show.
Speaker 3:That could potentially be for another show.
Speaker 2:But it's like if you were to look back at the top 10 compared to the top 10 ADP running backs getting drafted. Austin Eckler finished number 26.
Speaker 3:I knew Eckler had a bad season in 2023.
Speaker 2:Nick Chubb. We'll let him slide, because he had that massive knee injury yeah.
Speaker 3:You had Tony Pollard who just proved to be inefficient.
Speaker 2:You basically saw that he is not a number one running back.
Speaker 3:No, he was the best number two option in the league and then, when he became the bell cow, he couldn't handle it.
Speaker 2:No, you saw that Zeke Zeke Elliott left. They turned Tony Pollard and Tony Pollard just cannot produce the numbers, but he did finish at running back 14.
Speaker 3:Okay, so still relatively good on the running back landscape.
Speaker 2:Najee Harris finished at 23.
Speaker 3:I didn't even think it was that good to be completely honest and Ramondre Stevenson 30 plus 35.
Speaker 2:Wow.
Speaker 3:This is one of those things where I'm going to say that some of this I'm not going to blame Najee and Stevenson for their really low finishes. I'm going to blame the people who were drafting them as running backs nine and 10 off the board, because I never really got the impression that Najee and Stevenson should have been top 10 running backs. Now, granted, I didn't think that they'd finish as low as they did, but I would have guessed them top 20, not top 10.
Speaker 2:Wouldn't even consider them though your RB1s in fantasy football.
Speaker 3:Like, especially when looking at like a Rashad White with the reception totals you know if it's PPR at all that he's going to probably outproduce them in fantasy 100%.
Speaker 2:And especially another surprise in Baker Mayfield that we talked about in the last episode, who finished as number 10 quarterback Just dumping and feeding him the ball. Yeah, you can see why he finished as running back number four you know it's funny.
Speaker 3:Even with the conversations we had about Brees Hall before this, I'm still I'm still shocked that Brees Hall was RB2. Like I, I'm a Jets fan and I just didn't feel like that offense really did much of anything in 2023, and yet somehow he was RB2 and I guess that really shows the level of talent that he has it does show the level of talent he does has.
Speaker 2:But that entire jets offense ran through him. Yeah, I guess. So you had no quarterbacks that throw the ball, because aaron rogers gets hurt week one ford snaps into the game, so how else are they going to score points? You have to force feed.
Speaker 3:Well, they didn't score points, though I don't think he had a huge touchdown total or anything like that, more of a volume thing than anything else, right?
Speaker 2:Yeah, but the big thing that does also surprise me at number three is Travis Etienne. Yeah, especially that Jaguars.
Speaker 2:Especially with Trevor Lawrence not cashing in on his adp no, you have trevor lawrence as number three running back in fantasy football for the 2023 season. Travis etienne, yeah, travis etienne. Who did I say? You said trevor lawrence, oh my bad, it's cool, but yeah, it's just surprising that you have a running back for an offense that doesn't have a quarterback who's producing to what he's supposed to and you finish as the number three running back for an offense that doesn't have a quarterback who's producing to what he's supposed to and you finish as the number three running back for the 2023 season.
Speaker 3:Surprising, I guess, when the quarterback is just drastically underperforming, you have to look to the running back to have had fantasy points. So, as we've seen with both our second and our third with Brees Hall and Travis Etienne, and then Raheem Moser at number five.
Speaker 2:It's just surprising, especially with his age, but I'm pretty sure most of this was all those touchdowns he scored.
Speaker 3:Yes, and that's why I put him on the list, because it was one of those things where I kept on going back and forth. I was like I know the guy was injured, but I know the guy was unstoppable when he wasn't hurt and I was like I think he played enough games and apparently he did like I'm pretty sure if Raheem Mostert wasn't on this roster, I'm pretty sure Devont 8 Chain would be in the top 10 yeah, because once again, it would be one of those things where, despite the injuries, uh, he would have the the big time games.
Speaker 3:I mean 8 Chain had the big-time games. I mean A-Chain had the big-time games. It's just he had more injury time and more time behind Mostert. Really, this Dolphins offense is to a crack the top 10 in our quarterback episode for 2023. When we get to the wide receiver episode, tyreek's going to be near the top of that list.
Speaker 2:It'll be interesting to see for the 2023 season for wide receivers. Will both wide receivers be in your top 10?
Speaker 3:or close. Oh, you mean Tyreek and Waddle. Yeah, if I remember correctly, Waddle had an off year last year.
Speaker 2:Yeah, he did have an off year and was injured, but it'll be still interesting.
Speaker 3:Yeah, it will definitely be interesting, but no, the Dolphins offense is good for fantasy when two is playing.
Speaker 2:Yes, Another not surprising but a little surprising is Joe Mixon, that he did make it the number six. Yeah, the number six spot.
Speaker 3:I mean, it's not surprising to see Joe Mixon in the top 10, because I feel whenever Joe Mixon's playing he's in the top 10 and he never really comes close to leading the position.
Speaker 2:No, he's your all-around running back, who you know is going to produce for you in fantasy.
Speaker 3:Yeah, it's him and Chubb. Really, when it comes down to it, you're not expecting the top five season, you're almost guaranteed the top 10 season, providing they're not hurt, and we had an injured Chubb this last year, so the only old reliable was Mixon.
Speaker 2:Yeah, the only difference, though, I think, between Chubb and Mixon is Mixon you know you're going to get the catches from him, where Chubb you're just getting the rushing yards and touchdowns. Correct. The next person who, I think, if he was the number one running back on this roster from the very beginning of season, probably could have been fighting McCaffrey for that number one spot in Kyron Williams, I mean it's really hard to say that anyone would fight CMC for the top spot.
Speaker 3:It's. Cmc really is just on a different level when it comes to most of these guys, as as proven by the average draft position, because cmc was obviously the first one getting taken off the board. Um, no other running back was going within two picks of him in, you know, in one quarterback leagues. No other running back was going within five picks of him in two quarterback leagues consensus. No other running back was going within five picks of him in two quarterback leagues Consensus. Number one running back.
Speaker 3:And, honestly, I thought you were going to say Jameer Gibbs at first. I didn't think you were going to say Kyron Williams, someone who has shares of both man. I am ashamed that I forgot about Kyron Williams but at the same time, it's one of those things where, yes, kyron Williams had an amazing season and a little shocked that it wasn't a top five season, but at the same point in time, let's just leave CMC's name on another level right CMC, is that running back who, every single year, probably once he hits his maybe just past his 30s, might see a drop off, but he's going to be that player who, sam fran, runs the entire offense through yeah, he had a legitimate claim for mvp last year yeah, there was no doubt of it.
Speaker 3:And well, I mean clearly there was doubt because lamar jackson won, but, you know, still having a legitimate claim though, yeah, like.
Speaker 2:But if we went back to kyron williams, where I am getting all these stats from sleeper. So, kyron Williams, he finished as week one top 10 running back RB9, rb2, rb28, rb4, rb31, rb3, okay. Then he was hurt for five weeks with the bye week, yep, and then he's literally RB1, rb9, 18, 5, 12, 8 in one and that's where he didn't make the top five.
Speaker 3:How did I forget that he was injured for five weeks? What did I do to overcome that? Oh, that was around the time when jameer gibbs started to peak yeah, because david montgomery was hurt.
Speaker 2:If but yeah, if kyron williams did not get hurt those five weeks and was the true number one coming out of camp, he could be close but I mean, he was the true number one he was.
Speaker 3:You said he was like rb8 week one, right, he was RB9. Okay, so that's true number one numbers, right?
Speaker 2:Yeah, but yeah then we go back over to Jameer Gibbs is the big surprise that I thought would have produced as the number one earlier than he did. But once David Montgomery did go out, hurt and lines like, all right, we need to use him, let's see what he can do. Oh yeah.
Speaker 3:It was the Gibbs show. From that point onward, 100 and it's like for the 2024 season, he will probably be, you think, a top five running back. I think that he could. He could very well be the number two running back and, uh, let's, let's wait to see if cmc can be challenged this, uh, in 2024 yes, and then then two players.
Speaker 2:I'm gonna put together derrick henry, who is old, who's 30, and then you have Bijan, the rookie, both drafted high in the ADPs. Well, not high. Bijan was at 8.9. Then you have Derek Henry at 16.8. Were you surprised that they dropped as far as they did, or that Derek Henry is at basically kind of what he was drafted as?
Speaker 3:Derek Henry is in a slow decline like there. A lot of other running backs would be. Um would be taking a much more drastic hit. But I don't think it's fair to derrick henry to think that age isn't going to catch up like and I get why he was drafted ahead of the running backs that he was drafted ahead of. When you really look at it, you had to expect a decline when Derrick Henry the season before, I'm assuming was a top five ADP, potentially a top three ADP, and for seasons before that he was definitely near, probably closer to the top three range also. So the ADP already factored in that he was in decline. It's just he was in a little bit more decline than was originally thought. And when it came to Bijan, I'm not blaming Bijan at all.
Speaker 2:I'm blaming Arthur Smith.
Speaker 3:Yeah, I'm blaming Arthur Smith, so let's free Bijan 2024.
Speaker 2:Arthur Smith, desmond Ritter both not even on that roster anymore.
Speaker 3:Yeah, but I mean, yeah, theoretically we've already seen that poor quarterback Like Zach Wilson had Brees Hall and Brees Hall finished number two. I'm not going to blame Desmond Ritter, I'm blaming Arthur Smith, because when you're holding Bijan on the sideline for a full game without announcement of anything injury and then say he had a headache, and putting Tyler Algier in over top of him.
Speaker 3:Yeah, it's no disrespect to Tyler Algier, because Tyler Algier is a nice running back, but he's not Bijan Robinson and, frankly, that should not have been as much of a platoon as it was for the first half, and it shouldn't.
Speaker 2:Bijan should have just been the bell cow, especially when you use a top 10 draft pick on Bijan Robinson, a running back of his caliber Yep, and you're just going to be like all right, you're going to share carries with Tyler Algier and you're going to get played when I want you to play.
Speaker 3:And, to be fair, as somebody who drafted Bijan in the first round in redraft in 2023, I never truly felt like. There were weeks I was frustrated but I never truly regretted the pick. Does that make sense?
Speaker 2:Yeah, that makes complete sense because you had Bijan going as high in some leagues top five pick and then you have him going where he was getting drafted, right in the later rounds of the first round.
Speaker 3:Yeah, and there were plenty of players that were being drafted ahead of him that just didn't perform Like when Justin you know Justin Jefferson was hurt and then Kirk Cousins was out and Jamar Chase had another you know had some injury issues in Cooper Cup. Unless you had that first pick and you chose to go CMC over Justin Jefferson, or unless you got CMC with that second pick, you probably weren't thrilled with who you took in the first round last year and Bijan ended up being one of those better first round picks because, at the very least, he only cost you, like when he. There were games he cost you for putting in the lineup, but every other game it was he returned on value when he was allowed to touch the ball he was producing for you.
Speaker 2:Yeah, and especially then you have Austin Eckler, who was the second running back going off boards, who did not produce at all for you. Yeah, and especially then you'd like you have austin eckler, who was the second running back going off boards, who did not produce at all for you yeah, so much, so much worse.
Speaker 2:You could have things a lot worse than if you used your first round on bijan last year and you saw that, especially for a running back of austin eckler's caliber who was fighting for a contract. And you saw the age come in full effect. Yeah, yeah.
Speaker 3:So, despite the fact that we're a little down on Derrick Henry and Bijan versus their ADP, they still compared to the other players drafted around them. You still did better than most people with their first round picks last year.
Speaker 2:Yeah, that's 100% true. So this will be the end of the second episode of the Fantasy Football Archivers. We're going to recap on. What we looked over today was for running back ADP. You had CMC at 2.9, austin Eckler at 4.4, bijan Robinson at 8.9, saquon Barkley at 10.2, nick Chubb at 11, derek Henry at 16.8, josh Jacobs at 19.2. Tony Pollard at 21.5. Najee Harris at 29.3. Then Ramondre Stevenson at 30.7. That is single quarterback. And then for super flex, christian McCaffrey at 7.2., austin Eckler at 13. Bijan Robinson at 16.5. Saquon Barkley at 18. Nick Chubb at 21.3, derek Henry at 24.8, josh Jacobs at 30.4, tony Pollard at 33, najee Harris at 39.7, and Ramondre Stevenson at 38.4. And then your top 10 finished running backs again for the 2023 season was Christian McCaffrey, brees Hall, travis, etienne, rashad White, raheem Mostert, chris McCaffrey, brees Hall, travis Etienne, rashad White, raheem Mostert, joe Mixon, kyron Williams, derek Henry, bijan Robinson and Jameer Gibbs. My name is Zach Waldron.
Speaker 1:Co-host Jay Mill and thank you again. Thank you for listening to another episode of the Fantasy Football Archive. You can listen to us on Spotify and Apple and follow us on X at the FF Archivers, and all of our information will be in the show notes.
