Tariffs, Trucks, And Tech, 3 Trends Effecting the Aftermarket

Auto sales aren’t crashing, they’re settling and that one word changes how we should plan for the next few years. Host, Stacey Miller breaks down the latest signals from the market and what they mean for the automotive aftermarket, especially if you build parts, distribute products, run a repair shop, or manage service strategy. When new vehicle sales slow, drivers tend to keep vehicles longer, and a growing, aging vehicle fleet is the foundation for steady demand in maintenance, diagnostics, and repair. 

We also dig into why strong spending on higher-priced pickups and SUVs matters beyond the showroom. Today’s premium trucks and tech-heavy vehicles become tomorrow’s service base, and that can be great news for the aftermarket, as long as we’re ready for the complexity that comes with modern systems. That naturally brings us to right to repair, because fair access to repair data, tools, and information is becoming the line between “we can fix it” and “we have to turn it away.” 

Then we zoom out to the pressures that can hit your costs overnight: tariffs and trade actions that ripple through automotive supply chains, from brake components and sensors to steel, aluminum, copper derivatives, and logistics. We also look south to the Mexico auto market, where Chinese automakers are gaining market share even with tariffs, accelerating how quickly new makes will show up in the vehicle population. Finally, we spotlight the next big battleground in auto repair: ADAS diagnostics and calibration, where software, training, and data access will decide who captures value in the decade ahead. 

Learn more about the Right to Repair and get involved at REPAIRAct.com.

To learn more about the Auto Care Association visit autocare.org?utm_medium=podcast&utm_source=youtube&utm_campaign=podcast.

To learn more about our show and suggest future topics and guests, visit autocare.org/podcast

Transcript

Copy Transcript Copied

Welcome And What To Watch

Stacey Miller 0:12

Welcome to Autocare on Air, a candid podcast for a curious industry. I'm Stacey Miller, Vice President of Communications at the Autocare Association, and this is Traction Control, where we chat about recent news from the global to the local level and what it may mean to the industry featuring guests on the front lines. Let's roll. Three things are happening right now that every aftermarket business should be watching. Auto sales are slowing, trade tensions are rising, and Chinese automakers are gaining ground in North America despite new tariffs. If you manufacture parts, distribute products, repair vehicles, or run a shop, these stories really matter. I'm Stacey Miller and this is traction control. Let's get into it.

Auto Sales Slow And Fleet Ages

Stacey Miller 1:00

Our first story: the auto market isn't growing anymore. The first headline coming from Mobility Global, formerly SP Global Mobility, now expects US auto sales to reach 15.82 million units in 2026, which would be about a 3% decline from 2025. But here's the part that caught my attention. Mobility Global says the market is settling rather than growing. Read that again. The market is settling rather than growing. So that's not a collapse, that's not a crisis, but it is a signal. For the aftermarket, slower new vehicle sales often mean one thing. People keep vehicles longer. And when they keep vehicles longer, they buy more parts, perform more repairs, and invest more money in maintenance. This is exactly why AutoCARE's own market intelligence continues to show strength in the vehicle population and aging vehicle fleet trends. The industry's fundamentals remain tied to vehicles staying on the road longer.

Premium Trucks Become Future Repairs

Stacey Miller 2:11

Our second story: Ford says truck buyers are still spending. Ford just raised its full-year earnings guidance again, and Reuters reports that the automaker cited customers who are still buying higher-priced pickups and SUVs. The direct quote: Our industrial system is getting fitter. Ford also said its customers are resilient. So why should the aftermarket care? Because the vehicles generating the highest profits for automakers today are also some of the most profitable vehicles for the aftermarket tomorrow. A loaded pickup, a luxury SUV, a vehicle packed with ADOS sensors and technology, those vehicles eventually age into our repair opportunities. Today's new vehicle sales become tomorrow's service base. And Ford's results still suggest that consumers are paying for premium vehicles despite affordability concerns. Now, obviously, you have to stay up with the tools and the training, and we need to guarantee that right to repair in order to get the data, the tools, and the information need to repair those complex vehicles. And we couldn't leave attraction control without a right to repair plug, am I right? Story three: a new trade fight is coming for automotive supply chains. So

Tariffs And Supply Chain Cost Shifts

Stacey Miller 3:38

let's talk tariffs. One of the biggest stories in the industry right now is the new U.S. tariff action involving Canada. The White House proclamation states that Canada's policies have disadvantaged the commerce of the United States compared to the commerce of other countries. And that's according to Whitehouse.gov. According to multiple trade reports, new duties affecting automotive-related goods are scheduled to take effect on August the 19th. At the same time, Foley and Lardner reports that the Department of Commerce is reviewing additional tariff actions affecting steel, aluminum, and copper derivative products. Here's why this matters. Every time a tariff changes, somebody in the aftermarket has to answer the same question. Will this affect my cost? Maybe it's brake components. Maybe it's sensors. Maybe it's raw materials. Maybe it's your logistics. But the takeaway is simple. Supply chains remain one of the biggest strategic issues facing aftermarket businesses in 2026. So to stay up to date on what's happening with tariffs, you know that you can visit autocare.org slash trade, and our trade experts are here to help. Story

Chinese Brands Surge In Mexico

Stacey Miller 4:53

four. Chinese brands keep growing in Mexico despite tariffs. And this might be the story that nobody's talking about enough. Reuters reports that Chinese vehicle brands now account for 17% of new vehicle sales in Mexico. And that's up from 14% a year ago. Even more notable, Chinese brand vehicle sales climbed to over 137,000 units during the first half of the year. And this happened despite Mexico imposing a 50% tariff on imported vehicles from China and other Asian countries earlier this year. The Reuters article notes that Chinese brands have transformed the country's auto market. And we've seen it, right? Our executives just went to the Mexican Aftermarket Congress and came back commenting and sharing some of the information we saw with those Chinese vehicles on the road. So why should aftermarket leaders care? Because today's vehicle sales become tomorrow's vehicle population. We said it earlier. And eventually, every growing vehicle population needs what? Parts, repair data, technical information, training, diagnostics, and distribution. So whether you're talking about BYD, Gile, MG, or any of those other makes, the question is no longer whether Chinese brands matter, but it's how quickly the aftermarket and your partners that are present in those regions will need to support them.

ADAS Data Access And Calibration

Stacey Miller 6:34

Our fifth story is that ADOS is becoming the next big aftermarket battleground. So if you want one trend that is going to shape the next decade of repair, this is probably it. Advanced driver assistance systems. According to Mobility Global's aftermarket research, the rising adoption of ADOS is driving higher penetration rates within the VIO and creating maintenance and repair opportunities in the aftermarket. The report goes even further to say that aftermarket companies that can manage diagnostics, calibration, and data access will be able to capture more value. That's a big statement, right? That's the whole reason we're fighting for right to repair. Because it means the future isn't just about having the right part. It's also about having the right data, the right software, the right training, and the right access, the fair access. Because every camera replacement, every radar calibration and sensor repair, that's becoming part of the modern aftermarket. And the businesses that have that access and they're investing now are going to have not just a significant competitive advantage, but the level playing field at the very least.

Five Takeaways And Closing

Stacey Miller 8:02

Number two, consumers are still buying profitable trucks and SUVs, surprisingly. Number three, tariffs continue to reshape the automotive supply chain. Number four, Chinese brands continue to gain market share in Mexico despite new trade barriers. And number five, ADOS, diagnostics, and data access are becoming essential aftermarket capabilities. Those are the stories moving the industry right now, and those are the trends that will influence the aftermarket long after this week's headlines disappear. Thanks for tuning in to another episode of Auto Care on Air. Make sure to subscribe to our podcast so that you never miss an episode. And don't forget to leave us a rating and review that helps others discover our content. Autocare on Air is a production of the Autocare Association, dedicated to advancing the autocare industry and supporting professionals like you. To learn more about the association and its initiatives, visit autocare.org.