New KEEL, CLSK, MARA Price Targets & Latest IREN Oklahoma News!

We react to Bitcoin breaking below $59K, then zoom out to the bigger power story driving AI data centers and miner conversions. We also unpack fresh analyst price targets, a key delay at IREN’s Oklahoma site, and why execution speed is becoming the edge in HPC.

• Bitcoin weakness and what it does to miner and AI infra stocks
• Why nuclear timelines make existing miner power more valuable today
• CoreWeave’s Europe expansion and the global race for AI compute
• Heat map context, year-to-date gains, and why price alone is not a signal
• IREN Oklahoma tax abatement delay and what community process can change
• Real-world noise levels from ASIC mining versus GPU data centers
• WhiteFiber’s retrofit strategy, contract economics, and revenue ramp
• Citizens price targets, EV/EBITDA multiples, and what assumptions matter most
Let us know in the comment section below what you think of today's price targets and your outlook for Iren moving forward!

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Transcript

Welcome And What’s Ahead

SPEAKER_01 0:00

Hey guys, welcome or welcome back to the channel McNally Money, the official home of power analysis. A big episode in store for you, not one you're gonna want to miss. We're gonna be talking all things price target for some of your favorite names in the sector, and of course, an update on Iron's Oklahoma facility. We've got a lot to discuss before we get into it. Take a second, smash the like button, guys. Big help to myself and the channel. Anthony absolutely loves it. If you're not already subscribed, McNally Money, feel free to join. And let us know in the comment section below what you think of today's price targets and your outlook for Iron moving forward. With that being said, let's get into today's episode.

Bitcoin Drops Below Key Levels

SPEAKER_01 0:47

All right, guys, away we go. A bit of a tough day here, Wednesday afternoon. You just mentioned Anthony, Bitcoin now fell below 60,000 into the 59s. We've got an interesting podcast on deck here, a number of price targets, analyst upgrades. We're gonna be talking through our bullish thesis and an update on Iron's Oklahoma facility. So a lot to talk about today. First and foremost, Anthony, Bitcoin, we're showing 60.4, but you're saying in real time, getting a little bit worse.

SPEAKER_00 1:19

Yeah, Bitcoin now below 59,000. Interesting. Uh, you know, we've seen this week now down, you know, four to five percent. Uh, we were hoping to stay within that uh in that region, but uh sadly, um no. So we'll see how far it uh gets below there. Maybe it's just a just a short-term event, but uh there's maybe some more movements to go here before we start seeing um seeing the the the bull cycle start to move in place.

SPEAKER_01 1:48

You're speechless, Anthony. Bitcoin's got you speechless here. I was speechless looking at SATA and stretch pricing now again down in the $90 range. So interesting events watching history unfold here.

Nuclear Funding And Miner Power Advantage

SPEAKER_01 2:02

Speaking of which, the Trump administration, we know they've been fairly active in terms of investment in the private sector, getting involved with the chipmakers, uh, some of the critical minerals and material company. It looks like they're doing a similar approach now with the nuclear industry, uh backing 10 nuclear reactors, a $17 billion spend. The angle I wanted to ask you here, Anthony, we know nuclear is a great alternative. The problem is these reactors take a lot of time to design, build, finance. The interesting thing is right now the Bitcoin miners turned AI infrastructure players have power available.

SPEAKER_00 2:40

They do. Um, you know, when you're looking at some like small nuclear uh plants, um, some similar to the ones they have in Spain, you're probably looking at maybe three to five years, but larger, bigger nuclear plants, probably a minimum of ten years. So, you know, you're really like investing for the future. And so, you know, yes, the miners have power, and most of those miners have power that's available now. Um, you know, we talked yesterday about the likes of BitDear, pretty much most of that three gigawatts of power is available now, very much soon to be available, puts me in a really strong position um, you know, to announce a deal in this in the HPC space. But a lot of the miners are certainly getting up to you know uh in excess of a gigawatt uh of power in each of those companies, even some of the smaller companies. We talk about Soluna Holders a lot, um, they've got a significant amount of power uh available, they've got a long pipeline of power that can certainly last them on projects over the next four or five years. Um but they've they've got a sizeable amount of power now, and they've even just bought their first wind farm with 150 megawatts of power at Silverton, uh, home of Dorothy 1, 2 and soon to be Dorothy 3. But uh these um these loans will be much, much needed. 17.5 billion to five projects uh that each will build two big nuclear reactors. So, again, if they're large ones, this could take you know potentially another 10 years to deliver those. Uh, the projects will use uh Westinghouse's AP 1000 reactor design, and they can generate about 1.1 gigawatts of electricity, and the money itself will help finance complex components that typically take a long time to manufacture and deliver. So it sort of gives them a you know a head start to get uh some of these long lead items um in play um in readiness for the for the site to be to be built and operating. But uh yeah, a good a good opportunity. Think in the long term, this is I mean, you know, we we we we've got problems in Europe, and I don't think too many countries have been like um thinking that far ahead. I know the UK uh we seem to be putting more and more wind farms in place. We've got probably I think per square square uh kilometer or square mile, we've got more wind farms than probably any other country in the world. Um, and I know that uh the present US isn't a great fan of uh wind farms, um, but we haven't been utilizing all the opportunities for energy that we could be doing. So maybe this um this move by the US will start giving other countries a sense of you know they need to start thinking that long-term aspiration um to get the right amounts of power at the right time to deliver all they require.

SPEAKER_01 5:24

And it's interesting, you think about nuclear, a potential threat to the AI data center space as we know it, an influx of new power generation. On the other hand, though, Anthony, we've seen companies like Riot actually partnering with some of those smaller modular nuclear reactor companies, so embracing the change. So it'll be very interesting to see how this impacts our list of stocks. Uh, one thing I can say for sure, a lot of energy required. And right now, at least, these nuclear reactors aren't

CoreWeave Expands In Europe

SPEAKER_01 5:54

online. Now, Coreweave, another company, no stranger to power and compute capacity, they've announced another deal over in your neck of the woods, Anthony. I guess further stressing the point, uh, you mentioned yesterday this area or Europe has a huge population, uh, developed uh nations in the European Union and a lot of data requirements.

SPEAKER_00 6:17

Yeah, I mean, Europe's um, you know, not a big it comes in terms of size. You could put um Europe into some of the you know the larger countries in Russia and uh the likes of Kazakhstan uh quite easily. Um but in terms of population, that's 600 million of developed population there, uh probably at least twice the size of the US. Um, and you know, Corweaver tapping into that. They've made some significant strides in the UK. Now they want to expand their European footprint with Kanapto uh co-location deal with two renewable-powered stock home campuses. I mean, we've talked about Scandinavia, Finland, and Norway um being you know potential big sites there. Tidal uh one and two, which is BitDears project looking to start um in Norway very, very soon, um, imminently. We're expecting to probably get an announcement of a of a partner there because um, you know, from Matt Siegel's update, uh their negotiations are in the advanced stage, and that suggests uh imminently those they should be announcing something. This is set at Stockholm, Stockholm's got some big day centres, the largest big day centre in Europe is in Stockholm. Uh the last time I I looked, it was the Meta day centre. That's further up north uh in Sweden. Stockholm is is the is the capital, that's in the south of Sweden itself. But um, you know, understandably, uh, these two Stockholm campuses will be online. Um, and the co-location agreement with the count, so for the capacity at the Stockholm 4 South um site, and they're both powered by renewable energy. Well, most of the power in in Scandinavia is renewable. That's the great thing about it. You know, you're using renewable energy, and also there are benefits of using renewable energy as well, that that you know, they're not using carbon. Now, they're going to be using Blackwell and Via Rubin's platforms, and the capacity is built on Nvidia's latest architecture, connecting via Quantum X800 InfiniBand servicing accelerating European AI demand. Now, this will bring the total number of sites in Europe to eight sites for Core Weave. Uh, they've already invested something like close to three and a half billion dollars in the UK, and this is again a big investment um in Sweden. And with those sort of eight sites uh that they're already looking at in Europe, they've got a total of 49 sites globally uh with one gigawatt active and a further three and a half gigawatts contracted. And if you look at the nine of the top ten foundation LLM models, those are run on Core Weave GPUs at the moment. So, a you know, for a neo cloud operator, very, very um, you know, prominent in this particular space. Remember, we talk about core weave a lot because of the fact they have this big deal with Core Scientific across five sites, totaling 590 megawatts of compute power. That's pretty much getting close to the end of that by the end of this year, or may at the latest, very much early into 2027, that deal will be completed. And that's you know, a long-term deal uh for Core Scientific and for Core Weave there. But this is highlighting again, you know, not just sticking to the US, moving out and seeing where the demand is, and you know, uh this type of technology is globally, you know, you have to think globally, you have to operate everywhere. So, you know, the Middle East, Europe, um, Asia, uh, there are so many localities uh that companies moving into and core weaver certainly putting their mark on Europe at the moment.

SPEAKER_01 9:50

Yeah, case in point, Canada jumping in on the action as well. Good old Mark Carney uh coming out stating they've got a new AI strategy, AI for all. We've talked a lot about sovereign AI compute or data requirements. We've also started to see some big contracts. So Hive subsidiary, Buzz HPC inked that major deal with Bell Canada. We've also seen DMG land a few deals, and we know White Fiber and Keel have properties in Canada as well. So to your point, Anthony, the demand really is global, and there's a lot of opportunity if you've got the power and the expertise to build this compute uh network.

SPEAKER_00 10:29

Absolutely. And if you if you look at the fact that this announcement came out today, I'm sure we're gonna get probably two or three announcements from some of the Wall Street guys about what this means in terms of a price target. The last time we had a price target for Core Weave, about a couple of weeks ago, uh, our friends at Cancer Fitzgerald came out with an overweight um uh rating and a price target of $167 at that point in time there. So expect maybe some targets to certainly exceed uh that position at the moment. That's getting close to what the price target was uh when Core Weave uh first started to speak to Core Scientific about a potential deal. And remember, as soon as that deal uh you know, that that period started on a floating share price, the core weave share price started to drop, and then they had the sort of the opportunity for insiders to sell their shares, the lockout period ended, and the share price tumbled, and it got to a stage where the deal was literally half the value of initially. Thought uh, you know, 9 billion was the initial valuation, it ended up getting close to 4.5 billion, and the shareholders went not on our watch. We're not voting for that one. So uh quite clearly voting with their wallets uh and making sure they get the right value. And interestingly enough, over 90% voted no, wasn't even close.

SPEAKER_01 11:45

Landslide. Yeah, it'll be interesting to see how those price targets change, especially for some of the Canadian focused miners and the ones operating in Europe as we see government adoption

Red Day Heat Map And Due Diligence

SPEAKER_01 11:56

here. Now, speaking of share price, Anthony, and we've got some more price targets, I guess, for you guys a little later here. Speaking of price targets, we move over to the AI infrastructure stocks today. Not looking so hot. DMG, a little bit of green. Maybe they're riding that announcement from Mark Carney. Who knows? Uh, other than that, not looking great.

SPEAKER_00 12:17

No, it's uh it's pretty honest with you, and this is you know taken just before the uh podcast started, but with the Bitcoin price dropping uh, you know, below 60,000, I think a lot of these will be even further in the red now. Um, not been a great day, but we've had you know a great year up to now. Let's not um deter from the fact that you know you have a couple of red days. I always like to look at uh at Keel there, 35 million as opposed to an average volume of 43 million. So there's nothing, there's no overly selling, it just seems to be like normal business. But as you can see from the day range there, uh again in pre-market, stocks were looking really, really rosy. Um, and I think uh all these stocks here would have been close to being green in pre-market. It's just literally as soon as that opening bell occurs in New York, uh, we just see some sort of a pullback on a on a on a more too frequent basis than we'd like to. Um, Saluna and Hive both having um you know difficult days today, but they've had some great um run over the over the previous week. So pull back there. Bit digital keel. You could go through the whole list. Um, you know, there's only a couple that were showing green here, but the chances are now some of those will probably be red as the Bitcoin prices drop below that 60,000 for the first time in a in quite a while. Um, moving on to the heat map very quickly. Um, you know, the increase today you can see that down 4% on average there, a couple of stocks that were just mentioned in the in the green, uh bit zero DMG. But but cash your attention to the year-to-date change. So this is from the start of the year, and we're still seeing an average of 90% up from the start of 2026. Uh, we're still in positive territory on a five-year and a one-month change there, 13% up on the month, 90% up on the year to uh year to date, and the one-year change, uh it's going to take a little bit more than uh than a couple of red days to start bringing that down considerably. An average of 200% up, most of these stocks here, with uh you know, half a dozen of them, probably an average of 500% up uh in the last 12 months. So uh plenty of opportunity in this space if you're selecting the right stocks um at the right time. It's all about timing and it's all about doing your due diligence, uh, making sure that you've you know you've covered these stocks in real detail, go through a lot of the metrics, don't just take the price as the the be all and end all. That's um a meaningless metric on its own there. Um, but there are so much information out there that you can garner and you can do some research, and then once you've carried that out, then you can sort of make your necessary investment. But uh please don't just uh look at the heat map and think, oh, now's my time to buy some of these stocks. Um, you know, I I personally go through probably about nine or ten different metrics to before I start making a choice on them on the companies that I want in my portfolio. Learn the lesson the hard way back in 2021, 2022, but you know, having the space now for about six years, starting to make a little bit more better decisions going forward. And even if you have some of these bad days here, um, you know, we could keel down seven percent, but still up 160% from a year-to-date perspective. So, you know, yes, you're gonna have some pullbacks there, maybe some profit taking, a bit more than than normal, but um still think potentially uh, you know, a stop there that could do extremely well when you think about uh the podcast that we had with Ben very recently talking about those three potential deals in 2026.

SPEAKER_01 15:52

I just look at one metric, Anthony. I just follow whatever you're doing. Works out pretty good for me. No, I'm just kidding, guys. Of course, do your own due diligence. We hope we can help that. Now, Anthony,

IRN Oklahoma Vote And Community Pushback

SPEAKER_01 16:03

you've been talking about the frustration Iron shareholders have had. We've seen the share price virtually flat over the last maybe six months or so. We had that high of $76. Uh, really a retail darling. And it seems despite what Iron puts out in terms of press releases, they just can't really break through to that next leg up. Now, we may have part of a reason for that today. Uh data center vote came out, a delayed resolution for IRN's tax abatement agreement for their Oklahoma campus. So a shout out to John Dorf, who actually attended the meeting. But we've been talking about this quite frequently on the channel. Getting these data centers approved really requires community involvement, engagement. Iron, of course, going to the table, offering a lot of tax credits, uh, investment in the community. But I wanted you to walk us through the situation and how this can potentially impact these companies' development pipelines.

SPEAKER_00 17:03

Yeah, this is uh again, we touched on this in the previous podcast about how much these companies do for the local communities. Remember, you know, the the you know, a lot of these companies don't just want to go in there and build uh day centers and and and reap the rewards of that. They're also concerned about what they're bringing to the community uh in terms of jobs, uh, also in terms of revenues, what that revenues uh that those tax revenues look like to the new municipalities of the these areas, and you know, it could create uh funding for additional services that couldn't previously be afforded. Uh, you know, you'll generally find when these day centers go into certain locations that they are the biggest employer in the area as well. So, you know, usually in places where the previous type of industry has probably waned and and and moved on because of a lack of requirement for that. So some of the older industries where they've they've just recently, you know, just just over a period of time, uh, you know, just not um profitable to maintain those, and you're left with, you know, a sort of like a community that's no not knowing what's happening. And then you get you know, the fact that there was power available, you get companies going there saying we can build data centers, we want technicians, we want engineers, we want construction workers, a lot of jobs created. Um, this site we're talking about here is potentially a 1600 megawatt site, you know, one of the biggest sites uh in the US, 2,000 acres, and the the the decision has currently been tabled. Uh Pittsburgh County Commissioners have sent the Emerald Project Plan back to the TID board for renegotiation after a public um hearing. Now, here's what um you know Iron have said that they're going to pay at least about $60 million a year in property tax um incremental to the county over 25 years with 24 with 24 million cited as a conservative minimum. Um competitive tension has been framing. Iron positions itself um as the tax increment district as necessary to compete against other Oklahoma and US data center projects. Uh now the residents are also citing the noise plan. Um, however, opponents flag no written noise mitigation, no baseline measurements, decibel limits, setbacks, or infrastructure analysis in the EDA. And the public vote uh has has got some of the residents wanting a referendum on the proposed 85% tax abatement that you mentioned earlier, and the broader economic development plan.

SPEAKER_01 19:42

Yeah, a couple things there, Anthony. So tax abatement, that's essentially the portion of tax the company is credited. So in this case, 85% discount essentially on tax. The community pushing back saying maybe that's too much, maybe we should drop it a little bit. The other component here you talked about is noise. Now, you and I have been to a number of these facilities in Texas. Bitcoin mining honestly can be a little loud, Anthony. What are we talking in terms of decibels or noise level for GPUs versus A6?

SPEAKER_00 20:15

Yeah, so if you go to a typical uh Bitcoin mining site, uh you might see the the noise at levels close to say 90 decibels. Uh that's quite significant. We've been in sites there where you can't really hear each other uh talking. You're doing a lot of like sign language. Uh that's at the high point. It can be between 60 and 90. Now, if you're looking at GPUs, the less noise is than ASIC um uh mining machines, um, but still still a little bit of noise there, 30 to 60, so 60 at the most. Now we try to look at what would this compare to, and you're looking at generally uh the noise level would be similar to uh a noise of a of a domestic fan um in most of your homes. So I know that uh we were fortunate to go to the Granbury site uh in November last year, and there were a couple of properties in close proximity to the Granbury site, but Mara being good um, you know, good citizens of the community, they built a noise wall um around their facility to make sure that that was mitigated. And I'm sure that Iran will do all the due diligence required to make sure that it's not um extraordinarily uh loud for any local residents in the very near um area to the day centers themselves. But I think um you know the fact that these companies go in there provide significant revenues. We've seen it before where you know local towns or or areas will vote against these types of uh businesses, and there was one that voted against uh a deal um and effectively when the deal uh went that didn't go through. Each of the residents then saw in their next tax bill they were charged a significant amount more. Money that would have been offset by the company moving in there and building their Bitcoin mining facilities as it was at the time. These are big data centers for GPU expansion, slightly less um uh you know uh noisy than an ASIC machine. Um nonetheless, there is some sound, but as I say, probably equivalent to a to a to a fan. We've done some a little bit of research today just to make sure we understood what that level was, uh not being true, true scientists in the space, but um it doesn't take you need to be a space um scientist to to work out how much 60 decibels really is.

SPEAKER_01 22:48

No, you don't need to be, and we've heard from many CEOs, actually, one of the reasons a lot of these hyperscalers would want to partner with one of our companies here that we cover is because these communities know that there's potential money or savings on the table here. So a lot of times, again, it's a negotiation from both sides. They know that there's potential economic benefit, they want to make sure they maximize that. So that's one of the benefits of maybe dealing with a smaller company uh as opposed to an Amazon or a Google trying to build next door. And you can see in the photo to your point, Anthony, the Oklahoma facility appears to be uh fairly a remote or rural region.

Noise Reality From ASICs To GPUs

SPEAKER_01 23:28

Now, moving over to white fiber, they don't appear to have any concerns building their data center in North Carolina. They put out a video yesterday walking through the facility. You can see the level of detail, uh, how far along they are in terms of construction and progress there. I wanted you to talk a little bit about this facility because white fiber, uh Bit Digital subsidiary, they're quite unique in the sense that they actually go in and retrofit existing uh industrial or manufacturing facilities.

SPEAKER_00 23:59

Yeah, they have. They're not building these from the ground up. They're they're fetching refurbishing buildings that are out there and doing it very well at the moment. Um, it's enabled them to move very, very quickly. It's not that long ago since we started to talk about NC1, which is this uh you know 40 megawatt compute power contract um for 10 years and bringing in you know some of the highest revenues we've seen per megawatt, over 2.15 million dollars per megawatt. That's uh higher than pretty much all the miners that we've discussed on the channel um over the last sort of 18 months as we've been discussing these

WhiteFiber’s Fast Retrofit Data Center Model

SPEAKER_00 24:40

deals in as they become more and more transparent. Um, but it's great uh you know that they're you know they're able to get these um deals off the ground very, very quickly, and the refurbishment timelines um are significantly less because they're just providing a refurbishment. So you know they're taking existing facilities, you quite rightly say, and then they're they're turning that into a tier three uh data center. And uh as the video quite clearly shows, there they're getting on with that uh particular um facility uh for the NC1 project, which at the moment is a 40-megawatt project. There is plans to probably extend that again uh in the future. As we've seen with many of these uh contracts out there, you start with uh one level of contract there with the ability to grow that um in the future. So it's very you know appears to be like future-proofing it, but extremely good revenues. Um, and if they're managing to keep the cost down by using these type of facilities, that means greater eBit DA, that means greater for shareholders when we start looking at how the market reacts to these type of deals. Now remember, the funding for the for that for NC1 is due to start very, very quick. That that um facility is due to be handed over very I think within the next month. Um, on top of that, they do have a further two other cloud service contracts um in place. The first of which is we've discussed on channel before um is the Paris region uh deployments. That's a five-year contract, it's $160 million total contract value. That's going to commence in July 2026. That's $32 million per year. That's using advanced NVIDIA GPU systems. They're going to be deployed in France and they're supported by customer prepayments and project level financing. So very much their um you know, good contract. The second one is is uh hyperbolic uh model labs, that's a two-year contract, total contract value $17 million, and the revenue for that one starts actually this month, Bryce. They're deploying um H200 GPUs from White Fiber's existing own fleet, and there's no incremental GPU capital expenditure, therefore, required. Now, looking at those two deals together, you're looking at approximately another 40 million of annualized revenue. Remember, this is the one of the key metrics that a lot of these companies are looking at. Now, we talked about this yesterday from Hive Digital's perspective. Remember, White Fiber were the first company out there to deliver the you know what I would class as a significant HPC deal. It was a $50 million annualized revenue contract. And remember, Sam came on the podcast many times talking about we're going to hit that $100 million uh revenue line there. Well, you know that um as soon as as these two and the N scale one, that $100 million per annum uh revenue target blown out of the water, they're probably heading their way towards 200 million per annum and higher. And if they'll are able to complete some of these expansions that they're looking at, then that 200 becomes insignificant again as they as they move forward with this strategy.

SPEAKER_01 27:59

Pretty exciting times there. And yeah, the speed to deployment, speed to compute, we've heard a lot from the CEOs and Wi-Fi really capitalizing on that. Now, speaking of uh targets and share price here, we've got another round of upgrades or price targets today out from citizens.

Citizens Price Targets For Miners

SPEAKER_01 28:18

We're gonna be talking through some of these numbers, Anthony. Interesting to see the EV to EBITDA ratios they're using. We've talked a lot about the 15 to 20 range, also which year they're looking at. We talk about ARR. Uh, it's important to classify which year as more of these pipelines come on. So, first and foremost, Mara. We just had Matt Siegel on. He talked about Mara alongside BitDear as one of his near-term picks in terms of signing the next deal. We know they've got that Starwood JV for their portfolio. A $24 price target here. Why don't you walk us through what they're seeing?

SPEAKER_00 28:54

Yeah, remember MARA have um have got a JV with Starwood there, so that's going to reduce any upfront capital intensity. Uh, what MAR will do is they will provide the land. That land will have a value. Starwood will meet that value in terms of putting cash into the contract, so it's a literally a 50-50 split. Um, they do have a significant amount of owned operational capacity around about 2.2 gigawatts and a potentially further 2.5 long-term pipeline of power. You know, the price target um given by citizens is now $24. And with today's share price just hovering under the $14, that's uh you know, a $10 uh increase. Now, what citizens then go on to say is how they've computed this uh increase there. That $24 implies a 20 times 2028 enterprise value to eBit dollar ratio. So we've had a number of analysts uh we've spoken to recently, we had Matt Siegel on the uh podcast there. We've also looked at uh Canter and how they're calculating it, and a lot of the companies are using probably you know 20, some are using slight less at 15. We started at 20. We felt that the the sort of the gap is between maybe uh 15 and and and as high as 40, maybe 45 in terms of uh multiples. Uh we thought 20 initially was was was conservative, and now we're actually using 15 as even being more conservative. So it really depends on your um on your thought process for metrics, but uh they also want to say the stock could be uh hypothetically worth $50 per share, assuming certain JV asset sales um as well. So there's plenty of potential here. Now we also know from Matt Siegel's um updates on the 16th of June that Mara like BitDeer are in those advanced negotiation stages, and it doesn't come as a big surprise there. Remember, Star would have built uh plenty of data centers into multiple multiple gigawatts of power uh throughout those data centers. So they uh uh know exactly what they're doing, and so the partnerships could hopefully going to work really well. Um, just now as a case of for the shells and Mara, they want to obviously uh hear what the what the next um what the next deal is, but uh I I suspect um we'll hear something extremely soon. Uh if Matt Siegel's anything to go by, they've got the finger on the pulse, they know what's happening in the market, and I'm expecting BitDeer and Mara to be announcing in the not too distant future.

SPEAKER_01 31:37

I agree there. Now, another company Citizens thinks could be worth upwards of $50 a share. Clean Spark, they've come out with a $27 price target here. And again, an interesting term Matt Siegel used for both Clean Spark and Mara said they're shopping their portfolio of assets and potentially looking at a portfolio deal. So not a single site, but saying, hey, we'll work with Starwood or whoever the partner is to develop multiple of these assets.

SPEAKER_00 32:06

Yeah, so um Clean Spark, interestingly, they've got um in operation at the moment, I think it's about 808 megawatts of power supporting that 50 megawatts of mining at the moment. They've gone out and bought additional sites. If you look at their total amount of contracted power, that's around about 1.8 gigawatts. Now, if you look at the whole amount of their business model, remember they've got something circa 30 plus sites. Uh so some of them are a bit smaller, but some of them are more usable. So Cysons have obviously done some research on this, and they're suggesting 1.2 gigawatts of clean spot power is suitable for AI HPC workloads, and so they see the upside um you know on the execution of a HPC leasing and conversion. They're also saying, like you said earlier, the stock could be worth $50 per share, assuming uh the sale of this AI HPC capacity. Now, interestingly, citizens are not using a 20 times multiple as they were for Mara, they're using a 25 times multiple based on 2027 um estimates for the EVIT, EV EBITDA. And that suggests from those two updates that they believe CleanSpot will be generating revenues next year and that Mara will likely generate revenues from 2028. But that 25x there, I mean, we we start putting that into some of our models, it would make some of the other the valuations that we've uh seen already uh you know be significantly higher. Um, at the moment I've been you know fairly conservative. I think 15 to 20 is probably where we need to be. Dependent on the the company and the and the type of facilities, I would sort of like say if you look at um the right facility at Corsi Carna probably could command maybe a 20 times multiple, and maybe the Rockdale facility could maybe maybe command a 15 times multiple, you know, um in terms of the you know, the the Corsi Carner site there, the flagship site there is effectively going to build from the ground up, and and so we'll see an extremely good facility. And the rockdale facility maybe they redevelop some of that site there that they have been doing already for the deal with AMD, um, which is proven to be slightly less in terms of um you know the revenues, but then slight less in terms of the cost. Uh so you know it's it's it's with caution that you sort of you know start to understand how these multiples have been applied to different companies. And it's interesting that citizens are highlighting on the same day two different companies with two different multiples.

SPEAKER_01 34:49

Not just two, three different companies, three multiples, Anthony. Move over to Kiel here. They've got a $10 price target, they're using a 28 times 2028 EV to EBITDA ratio here. So interesting to your point how these numbers shake out, but I think even at a 15x, the opportunity in this sector looks pretty eye-watering. I'll let you walk through Keel. We've talked a lot about our bullish thesis. It seems like Citizen is on board with that.

SPEAKER_00 35:20

Yeah, so you look at the the uh target there, $10. Um, what we don't know is is what's how much power they're suggesting goes online in HPC. We've we know there's going to be three deals. We know Moses Lake, uh Sharon, and uh Panther Creek are the three sites that are going to have deals because that's been quite clear from from Ben in the in the in the discussions on the podcast and and actually more recent discussions which we highlighted earlier in the week. Uh what we don't know is the size of the amount of power in those locations there. So the dependent on the size will drive the revenues and drive the eBit DAR, drive the multiple, and therefore get to a target. So there's you know, Ben's been very uh cautious. He's not giving out any of that sort of information there. Another area that we don't know to any certain extent is how much it's going to cost to deliver these sites in terms of capital cost. Um, you know, we've been using $10 million as a sort of midpoint. If you think about what TerraWolf and Cypher Digital came out with uh last year in terms of their contracts, 9 to 11. So we use 10 million dollars in our models there. To be sort of consistent, uh Ben was put on the spot the other day about 11 to 13 million, and he was sort of like indicating that could be closer to where it is there, and that would go in line with what we heard from Adam Sullivan, of course, scientific, who suggested that their initial targets of eight to nine are now closer to twelve million dollars per megawatt. So it really depends on on how you're determining the e-bit DAR, um, how much you're determining the power that's going to be uh using or the compute that's going to be used in these uh contracts. Um and by having that amount there, you can and also what do you think warrants the right multiple? Now, interestingly, uh Citizen have given uh Keel a multiple of 28. So we've had you know 20 for Mara, we've had 25 for CleanSpot, and they think Keel deserves a higher rating. Now, again, you know, you could go along and sort of agree it does probably deserve a higher rating. A, also remember the PUE that uh Keel are going to have is going to be significantly better than Clean Spot and MARA if you think about the locations that most of their sites are operating more towards the south of the USA, whereas Kiel, as we highlighted earlier this week, their PU ratio round about the 1.25. So effectively, you're going to get maybe 20% more compute power from the available power that you have because you're not using significant amounts of ancillary power to keep some of these GPUs cool that you would need to in those warmer states in terms of Texas, Georgia, all those South states uh in the south of the US, there. Um, and so you know that really has it has an impact um as well. So um as I say, you know, these targets are great, but until we know a little bit more about it, um when we look at the Canter targets, they do actually put a background document which explains how they got to that figure. They literally value every piece of the business. Uh so if they're doing a little bit of mining, they'll value that mining. If they've got some Bitcoin in their treasury, they'll give that a value per share. If they're doing some uh HPC location, they'll give that a value. If they're doing a CSP contract, they'll give a valuation there, and it's the sum of the valuations that gets you to a market uh share price target for the company. So it's very much you know uh a process to get there. What we don't know from these targets is how they've achieved that because not enough information is out there for anybody to give a reasonable target for Keel, other than really having to guess or estimate how much power they're going to deliver on those three deals that they're going to announce this year.

SPEAKER_01 39:20

Yeah, and we know one thing for sure, this stuff isn't cheap. We just got an update out from Kiel at Sharon, one of their two custom-built 100 MVA transformers for their future 80 meg substation. Just completed factory testing and manufacturing. So moving forward at one of those sites, Anthony.

Newsletter Plug And Closing Thoughts

SPEAKER_01 39:39

Uh, we wanted to close out here with the newsletter, you guys. We talked a lot about price targets today. We're gonna be featuring a number of companies in this week's edition, including Hive, BitDear, and BitZero. So make sure you guys check it out. We'd also like to hear your price targets or your thoughts on citizens' numbers here in the comment section below. Thanks so much for joining us. We'll see you back here tomorrow.