AI Earnings Season Expectations: Latest SLNH, BTBT, HUT, KEEL & WULF News!

Bitcoin slides into the high $50Ks and we zoom out on cycle expectations, investor psychology, and why pullbacks can create opportunities. We then track how crypto miners are turning into AI infrastructure companies, where power, HPC contracts, and execution matter more than headlines. 

• Bitcoin’s pullback and why we avoid calling a bottom too early 
• How investor psychology flips between fear and FOMO 
• Miner weakness versus year-to-date strength and the case for taking profits 
• The halving business model problem and why the next one could force a washout 
• Power strategy as the real differentiator for AI infrastructure and HPC 
• Battery storage as a response to grid constraints and PJM backlog 
• Russell 2000 and Russell 3000 inclusions as liquidity catalysts 
• WhiteFiber’s positioning and why counterparty quality matters 
• Bit Digital net asset value math and why a discount can persist 
• Q2 earnings season expectations and what happens when milestones slip 

Let us know your thoughts in the comment section below, specifically on TeraWulf and that Hawesville, Kentucky site!

Anthonys Info:

Website:

https://www.powermininganalysis.com

X: 

https://twitter.com/cazenove_uk

Patreon:

https://www.patreon.com/Cazenove_UK

Bryce's Info:

X:

https://twitter.com/McnallieM

Patreon:

https://www.patreon.com/McNallieMoney

Merch:

https://shop.mcnalliemoney.com/

Website:

https://www.mcnalliemoney.com

Business Inquiries:

Email - powermininganalysis@gmail.com

Transcript

Welcome And Market Setup

SPEAKER_00 0:00

Hey guys, welcome or welcome back to the channel McNally Money, the official home of power analysis, a big day in the markets. We're going to be breaking down the latest headlines from the AI infrastructure players. Not an episode you want to miss. Before we get into it, take a second, smash a like button, guys. Big help to myself and the channel. Anthony absolutely loves it. If you're not already subscribed, McNally Money, feel free to join. And let us know in the comment section below your top pick currently in the sector. With that being said, let's get into today's video.

Bitcoin Pullback And Cycle Psychology

SPEAKER_00 0:38

All right, guys, Tuesday afternoon. Away we go. Another action-packed episode for you. We've got Bitcoin breaking to the downside. We've got AI headlines and top news to dissect for you, along with earnings expectations as we enter July or Q2 earnings season here. So, Anthony, Bitcoin first, you mentioned we've seen this prolonged pullback. We've been in this $60,000 range. You said you weren't ready to call it an official bottom, but you thought we were getting close. It definitely feels this $58,000 range pretty close to where we may start to see some bottoming.

SPEAKER_01 1:15

Well, we've been saying it all along, Bryce. We're saying it at $60,000 and $59,000. We're at $58,000 today. Bitcoin will do what it does, and um maybe it's got some more testing. But um this is proven to be one of the um most challenging uh cycles of the of the four-year cycles that we've seen previously. Um I think it was an expectation we would have seen Bitcoin um you know rise uh quicker to an all all-time high. Um, even the all-time high in October last year wasn't um anywhere significant enough for a cycle compared to previous cycle uh increases. But um Bitcoin will do what it does. Um you know we zoom out a lot on Bitcoin. I was buying some the other day at 59,000, and if it drops more, maybe an opportunity to buy a little bit more. Um, I haven't sold any Bitcoin yet. I think the long-term aspirations still remain the same, it's still gonna um rise in value as more and more adoption occurs, and we'll see more and more companies, we'll see more and more states. We'll probably you know need to wait maybe for the Clarity Act to get um that approval. Um that seems to have gone a little bit quiet lately, and then I think July the 4th uh is um is recessed so that you know for summer break. So uh if nothing happens this week, I think we've we've uh missed the opportunity for a few months. Um but we can see that a five-day change down three percent. If we look out, zoom out further to the 12-month change, you can see the all-time high there in October, and you can see the the the run it's had in that last eight months, and uh not not the best site, but um we're uh we're we're hopeful that um you know that the Bitcoin price will do will get back to some sort of highs in the in the near-term future.

SPEAKER_00 3:07

Human psychology is so funny. Bitcoin down 46% over the last 12 months. If we were sitting at an all-time high, people would be saying, man, I wish I could have bought it at 59.58. Now we're sitting at 58. People are saying, man, I wish it was at 125. Uh, also wanted to note, Anthony, a little under the weather. So make sure you guys hit the like button showing up on a sick day here to keep you

Miner Selloff And Halving Math

SPEAKER_00 3:30

informed. As we move over to the miners, aka AI infrastructure players. Pretty much more of the same, Anthony. It feels like the fourth or fifth day we've been reporting pretty much red across the board. Wi-Fi bucking the trend, iron slightly green, but a lot of the Bitcoin-dependent companies like the ABTCs, the BitFoo Foos giving up some ground.

SPEAKER_01 3:52

Yeah, uh Bit Zero having another uh challenging day. It's had a phenomenal run the last few weeks, but you can see now on that 52-week range heading back towards its 52-week low of $5.04, um, has been as high as $10. But there's a couple of stocks in the green there today. We are seeing more of a decoupling from the Bitcoin price for the majority of these as they start focusing their power towards HPC. And you know, a couple of these miners have said, you know, within the next 12 months they won't have any more mining strategy going forward. So um I think we're coming to the end, and the the next halving will be a challenge if the Bitcoin price hasn't maybe at least doubled or trebled from today's value. I think the next halving could be a uh you know, washout for a lot of the North American public miners because it's so hard to make a margin today. How are you going to make a margin when your rewards have been cut by 50%? Um, that's gonna be the true challenge, and that's less than two years away now. Right about April 28 will be the next halving. Um we're already going into July this week.

SPEAKER_00 4:59

We are, yeah. I remember talking about that halving as we were coming up to it. Now to consider we're halfway through the next one, pretty incredible. Uh, but you're right, Anthony. The only business model or sector in the world where your revenues are systematically cut in half every four years makes it pretty

Heat Map Lessons On Taking Profits

SPEAKER_00 5:16

difficult. We move over to the heat map. Now all three of the first columns pretty red. We've still got some hope on the year to date, the one year, but we're definitely in uh a bit of a pullback. Really, why we stress the importance of taking profits when you can in this space.

SPEAKER_01 5:32

Yeah, absolutely. And uh you can see there from the five-day change down 13% on average, Bitcoin down six percent, the one-month change, Bitcoin is down 22%, and the average is down only nine percent. And if you zoom out to the year-to-date change, Bitcoin's down a total of 34%. But average miners, and the majority of those, are in green, with a couple of exceptions, the average year-to-date change is 70%. Um, and then you go to the one-year change, which we tend to focus on because of some big, big rises, even the likes of Keel and Hutt both still showing in excess of 500% from a year ago, their share price has changed. Um, looking down the market capitalizations, obviously, this erosion of the of the share prices over the last month has um you know put iron back to $16 billion. I mean, go back 18 months ago, it was a $2 billion company, um, and it's been as high as a you know, a $22 billion company. So uh I'm sure they'll still be you know fairly pleased with the performance over that period. But you are starting to see a number of retail shareholders ask questions when's the next deal going to occur. They've already energized uh Sweetwater One, which is 300 megawatts. They're having a load of machines delivered to Childress to make way for the mining machines that they're pulling out of the uh 31 buildings there, so they'll have an extra, effectively, 450 megawatts of gross power outside of the Microsoft deal, and they're having extra machines sent to British Columbia to um increase their HPC uh business model in that particular neck of the woods as well. Alongside that, they've also got other sites um that they recently purchased due to Conline in not too distant future.

SPEAKER_00 7:24

We've got Eric Jackson on the channel this Friday. He's a big iron cipher open door bull. So we're gonna be getting the Wall Street perspective. I really think there's more than meets the eye to this NVIDIA partnership, and we may see something big there in this round of earnings. Now, you talk about the difficult mining economics, you talk about some

Battery Storage And New Power Plays

SPEAKER_00 7:44

of the expectations here heading into earnings. We're gonna come on to our earnings outlook in a second, but one of the trends we're seeing here, Anthony, a tweet from Matt Siegel. He was actually on the show a few weeks ago talking about the backlog in PJM, uh, upwards of three-digit gigawatt backlogs, and stating now the main power authority starting to look at alternative uh sources of power like battery storage. Now, interestingly enough, you found an article today talking about Mara really pioneering that tactic with Tay Power Solutions, uh shipping the first one of these battery storage power systems.

SPEAKER_01 8:23

Yeah, Tay Power have uh shipped the first hybrid energy storage prototype to Mara, to one of its sites, and this is uh for their grid responsive load management for digital infrastructure. It's first field deployment, and um it's the inaugural hybrid energy storage prototype to a Mara site under the company's strategic collaboration, marking a key commercial milestone for MARA itself. Now, the production deployments planned for later this year, and the prototype is going to be used for field validation, tuning, and operational testing ahead of additional hybrid systems at MARA sites itself.

SPEAKER_00 9:01

Pretty interesting. We're seeing this battery development. We're also seeing riot on the nuclear or modular nuclear side of things. So, really, these companies at the forefront of energy, energy generation, and storage uh will be interesting to see developments there. Among many announcements we're hoping from Mara this round of earnings. Now we go

Russell Index Adds And Why Liquidity Matters

SPEAKER_00 9:22

over to Saluna, Anthony. We talked about the Russell 3000 updates yesterday. Uh by our math, Iron made it into the 1, 2, and Russell 3K. We talked about Keel in the 2 and 3K. Saluna also making their way not only into the Russell 3000, but the Russell 2000. So we're starting to see a lot of these companies we've been following since really penny stock status now starting to become uh part of this huge index.

SPEAKER_01 9:50

Yeah, and as they get bigger, you know, more of these companies will move into these indexes and give themselves more liquidity and and capital as as shares will required to be bought through ETFs and the wider market themselves. So uh great opportunity for all these companies. We saw this happen back in 2021 when the likes of Mara and Wright platforms went on to the Nasdaq, the first two companies to go from the mining sector onto the Nasdaq, and their size grew immensely quicker than the rest of the miners, and they weren't even the oldest miners out there. You've got the likes of Hive, BitForms as it used to be called, Keel Infrastructure now, and HUT 8 were three original miners, uh public miners out there, but they were Canadian miners on the TSX exchange, and you know, you're not able to drive sufficient capital on that exchange to grow as quickly as you'd like. And Mara and Riot just rips into the uh the capital that they got. They were buying not thousands of machines, they were buying 30,000, 40,000 ASIC machines to grow their mining fleets, and you know, even at today's rates now you can see Mara with close to 60, 70 exahash, riot with 46 exahash. Um, you know, they went on to become behemoths of the of the mining uh space. And now we're getting the same now as as the HPC is kicking in for some of these companies. The likes of Saluna, the likes of Keel uh will use that opportunity to enable them to raise capital very, very quickly and more regularly because of these, uh the fact that they're going to be part of the basket of shares in those indexes which are purchased uh on a regular basis. And Iron just happens to be a bigger company and they go into the straight into the 1000. So even more opportunities. Um, you know, I think uh SpaceX IPO'd only like what two weeks ago, and that's going into the uh to the Nasdaq 100 uh straight away. Um, and that's phenomenal. Normally it takes about six to twelve months to um to get into that uh index, but because of the sheer size of the company, they're able to achieve it very, very quickly.

SPEAKER_00 12:04

Yeah, when you're Elon Musk, I guess you get a couple of uh favors your

WhiteFiber And Bit Digital NAV Discount

SPEAKER_00 12:08

way. Now, speaking of IPOs, white fiber IPO'd recently here. This was the spin out of Bit Digital. They've come out with a new presentation deck heading into earnings season. Again, we're really looking forward to getting an update from Sam and team, both on the Bit Digital side of the house strategy and thinking, and on the white fiber uh contracts and execution. Interesting as we look through the slides here, Anthony, really focused on this strategic asset company. So we've talked a lot about DATs on the channel. We frequently talk about Strive and strategy, a little bit different in the case of Bit Digital, as both one of these strategic assets actually generates revenue for the organization. So when you put the sum of the parts together here, we're seeing a significant discount for Bit Digital. And I think as we've seen with Hive, with Saluno, with uh BitZero, it's just a matter of time until the market really wakes up to what BitDigital has in their portfolio.

SPEAKER_01 13:07

Yeah, so when you look at uh Bit Digital, it has two elements to its valuation. The first one is obviously Ethereum holdings. Now we know from the latest update, it came out with its May update only yesterday, which highlights the fact that it had 162,080 Ethereum held on their balance sheet, of which uh uh the current valuation of that $1,567, that gives a total valuation $254 million and some change. More importantly, they hold $27,043,750 shares of white fiber. If you look at the current price of white fiber, $37.73, that gives a uh valuation of uh just over a billion dollars. Uh in fact, $1,000,360,688. So if you look at the combined amounts of their value from those two particular um uh uh strategies that they're using there, that gives you one one point two several dollars. Now they do have a convertible note of about 150 million, so you could say that their basic net asset value is 1.1 billion dollars, and that gives you a net asset value per share of about $3.18. That's really important. We've talked about net asset value before. If you're investing a dollar in a share, how much net asset value you're getting back? Now remember the BT share price today is one dollar eighty, which is significantly uh a discount to the net asset value, and that $1.80 gives uh Bit Digital a valuation from the market perspective of $636 million. So if you're going to be buying uh a share of Bit Digital today, you're actually getting a 43% discount to their net asset value per share. So for every dollar you're investing, if you buy Bit Digital shares, you're getting a really big discount because you know the Ethereum price, even though it's at its at its lowest for a long time, those shares in white fiber are significantly uh valued there, and the market's not giving any credibility to Bit Digital for that. Now, before you all start running for the hills, there are some sort of accountance issues there. If if Bit Digital were to sell any of those shares, and they've said we're not going to be selling them in the in the foreseeable future, but if they were to sell some of those shares, that would trigger a capital gains taxation. So there'd be a little bit of tax to pay on those shares. And also, if they started to sell shares in white fiber, being the largest owner of shares in white fiber, like when any owner sells shares, and the market knows when you're selling shares, um, the share price could actually drop. So as long as they maintain that holding of shares, you're going to see this uh this uh share price trade at a significant discount to its net asset value. Um, and you know, this is something that some shareholders, some investors might, you know, might appeal to them, having that sort of like the value there within the share price itself. There's not too many shares that we talk about on a daily basis, will have a positive net asset value. I think DMG is one of the other ones that's probably close to it, but DMG share price has risen significantly in the last couple of months as they made that big announcement um at the Christie that lake site that they're going to use 50 megawatts there for a co-location deal, and the share price has rallied. That might be closer to a you know one for one. We'll we'll know from the next earnings updates exactly where these companies are, but um, I can clearly say now there's not many companies showing the same net asset value benefit that BitDigital is showing uh compared to peers.

SPEAKER_00 17:08

No, and I'll say it's definitely a metric that I like to look at. A very interesting angle to look at bit digital. Now, you talk about white fiber, they've obviously got some new slides dedicated to them as well. Talking about their facilities here, Anthony. What I wanted to point your attention to, guys, is the quality of counterparty they have nscale, Cerebris, NVIDIA. We just mentioned yesterday Iron uh received exemplar status from NVIDIA. NScale is actually a private company and has that same uh status requirement from NVIDIA. So this is a high caliber list of clients. We know Sam's got his foot on the gas, and that really breeds leads us into our final point here about Q2 earnings expectation and outlook. So

Q2 Earnings Risks Deals And Expectations

SPEAKER_00 17:54

Sam Tabar, White Fiber, that's another one. We're looking forward to hearing progress on the Cerebrus and NC1 deals. But we've talked a lot, Anthony, about these companies putting out uh projections or promises to the market. Ben Ganyon, a great example of that. TerraWolf, another example of that. And I wanted to pick your brain as to what can go wrong if you don't actually achieve these milestones.

SPEAKER_01 18:19

Well, I mean, clearly, if you don't achieve the milestones in the time frame you've stated, then the market's not going to look favorably on it. Um, a good example of that is really when um Keel uh didn't achieve their Bitcoin hash rate target, which was a couple of years ago, and the share price um, you know, uh reflected the uh the the failure to achieve that target. I think the same would happen to some of the share prices now because what happens is when you announce potential deals, you know, some of those deals are being factored into the share price. If you're telling me that no uh deals are factored into the keel infrastructure share price, that wouldn't be strictly true at the moment. They've got uh a valuation of over three billion dollars, and they have about 10x hash of mining actually uh as a business at the moment. There is no way 10x hash of mining at very at marginal levels of um uh uh of profit, and and it would be very, very small if they are making a profit. Um, that would declare a you know that sort of uh market valuation. Some of those potential deals um at Panther Creek, at Sharon, at Moses Lake are being factored in. The level we don't know yet because we don't know the power, but I would imagine you know a significant amount of potential deals are factored in there, and that goes the same for all these companies that have made some sort of announcement about the near-term future. Uh, you get uh you know you get that price uh increasing when you make the announcement, and if you're not going to make the announcement, then the analyst companies who give these price ratings will change their models and will downgrade you because you're no longer going to be achieving the revenues, the time frame that they expected based on conversations with management teams of these companies, and a clear uh guidance on that you can see from the Van Eck uh deal pipeline, um, BitDeer were in advance negotiations to announce um a deal, a co-location deal at their tidal facility in Norway, and the expected timeline was the third quarter of 26. Well, they announced that yesterday, whereas TerraWolf, also in advanced negotiations for um a deal at their 480 megawatt site in Kentucky, were expected to announce that by the end of quarter two. Now, the end of quarter two is today, no announcements at the moment, and there are a few people out there in um in in social media land scratching their heads as to wondering why. Now, we know that TerraWolf have have kept to their word and all their other deals, and um I'm sure that as you mentioned the word earnings, and earnings should start to appear uh from the end of July. So those companies that are doing quarterly earnings normally get a minimum of about four weeks to uh prepare their earnings reports and then they can start issuing them. If it's your year-end earnings, so if it's the full year earnings, you get a bit longer. So companies will start reporting quarterly earnings by the end of July, going all the way through to August, and then those companies that are reporting year end will probably start reporting them in the sort of mid August through to the beginning of September. They get a bit longer because their accounts have to be audited. If you go down the uh the companies from the heat map there and look at some of those companies, there's about five of them are in sort of the $10 billion market cap range there. Uh right. One of those, and so you know, there is probably a strong belief that Wright are anticipated to announce a deal, and some of that deal looks to be factored into their share price because 50 megawatt deal with AMD on that co-location deal at their Rockdale facility, and having 46X Ash would not warrant a $10 billion valuation at the moment. So, um, again, you know, um, you'll see some of these changes. Now, the final thing to say is I believe, like we saw in quarter one, calendar year quarter one, a lot of companies will wait to the earnings before they start announcing um any positive news because the earnings results for this second quarter are going to be very, very challenging across the board. Even the most um, you know, the miners that can you know have the lowest power and the most efficient machines there are going to struggle to make anywhere near profits. So, you know, iron's going to be in that group. Uh, you know, Cypher, when they you know they talk about this, you know, three and a half cents, two point seven cents a kilowatt hour of power there, they're not going to be making profits in this second quarter. Core scientific, uh, all eyes will be on them because they will have delivered more than half of that contract for core weave. So we should start to see some positivity in their earnings because their um their mining business is is deteriorating, it's it's reducing down as they're sort of growing their HPC as more and more HPC power switched on. They're not re you know, they're reducing their mining fleet um at the same time, and you know, they haven't announced the next deal yet. All that 590 megawatts has been announced for a long, long time, so we're still waiting for a sort of announcement for that company as well. So this will be interesting. Q2, I think you'll see a lot more, again, like we saw in Q1, updates and earnings at the same time to take people away from the pain that the earnings reports are going to provide. And if you remember, Bryce, from those uh uh conversations uh from those earnings interviews with analysts um, you know, on the days these companies were announcing, there was uh very little mentioned about the earnings themselves. It was all about the future and what they were doing in terms of their power and HPC contracts. Very, very little was spoken about the the losses that all these companies incurred in that quarter.

SPEAKER_00 24:28

Yeah, really focused on the go forward outlook. Case in point there, HUD 8. Now they've obviously got ABTC as a subsidiary. They also have high rise AI. We know about the Beacon Point site, the riverbend, those are large co-location announcements, but Asher has laid some breadcrumbs in relation to an Illinois Logan Prairie campus as well. It sounds like in combination with high rise AI, this one may start to be uh going through the development process. Another one we'll be watching very closely going into earnings here, to your point, Anthony. Potentially more deals or more sites under development.

SPEAKER_01 25:07

Yeah, and they've got probably one of the biggest pipelines of power of all the mining companies, Hut 8. Um, they've already got set the most amount of uh uh contracted compute power of the miners that we discuss on a da on a daily basis. Uh, we know there are some of the I think Galaxy might have slightly more their deal with uh core weavies for that first 800 megawatts at the Helios site. That could be sort of like uh on a par with what uh um with the likes of Hote, but they've got close to 600 megawatts of compute power, um, so slightly more uh than than than core scientific, I think by a factor of about seven megawatts, so nothing uh big, but it it it's sort of like in this sort of competitive age, I think these companies want to be seen as being the best, and so um you know we'll pay more attention to these there. But when you've cut the likes of Cypher Digital and TerraWolf, both in that sort of 500 megawatt uh range there, not too far behind. Uh the challenge now is who's going to be the first to surpass 600 megawatts of compute power. Uh will it be HUT 8 or will it be uh someone coming out from nowhere? I mean, Riot have got a 756 megawatt facility at Corsi Carna. If they can land that to a hyperscaler, uh that puts them out on their own a little bit, and that should give their share price um uh a nice a nice uh movement upwards.

SPEAKER_00 26:32

Hence why we like Riot and Hutt. And again, if we know one thing about Asher, along with many of these CEOs, they're definitely

What To Watch Next And Viewer Questions

SPEAKER_00 26:40

competitive. There's a good competitive uh spirit to the sector. Speaking of which, we've got interviews coming up, we've got earnings. I mentioned Eric Jackson on Friday. Make sure you guys touch up on our most recent interviews on the power analysis website. Again, a lot of nuggets in there that you may not find in regular press releases and a good refresher as we head into Q2 here. So, Anthony, appreciate the commentary today, guys. Let us know your thoughts in the comment section below, specifically on Terra Wolf and that Hawsville, Kentucky site. If you think we're gonna see a deal, we'll catch you back here tomorrow. Thanks so much for watching.