Ep. 45 - Why Spring Didn’t Sprout: Record Listings and a Crisis of Confidence

In this episode of The Last Honest Realtor, host David Fleming unpacks the April 2025 TRREB data and asks the question that’s on every seller’s mind: Why hasn’t spring sprung?

Despite record-high listings and multiple Bank of Canada rate cuts, buyer activity remains muted. David dives into the growing confidence gap between buyers and sellers, and what this standoff means for the summer and fall markets.

What starts with market stats quickly evolves into a sharp, story-driven look at buyer psychology, seller rigidity, and the misfires that happen when agents don’t set proper expectations. If you’re wondering why listings are piling up and offer nights keep falling flat, this episode delivers the data — and the diagnosis.

In This Episode:

• Why April saw record listings but near-record low sales
• How fear of overpaying is replacing fear of missing out
• What today’s buyers are thinking — and why many are stuck in limbo
• Why sellers are still pricing like it’s 2022
• How unrealistic expectations are tanking otherwise solid listings

Timestamps:
00:00 – April Stats Are In: Listings Surge, Sales Stall
05:00 – Buyer Confidence Is Gone — and It’s Not Coming Back Soon
10:00 – Offer Nights That Go Nowhere: The New Normal
14:00 – Why Sellers Refuse to Lower Prices Even When They Should
19:00 – Condo Inventory, Absorption Rates, and the Myth of “Nothing Is Selling”
25:00 – FOP greater than FOMO: The Psychology Driving the 2025 Market
31:00 – Market Shocks Ahead: Interest Rates, Immigration Caps, and Precon Defaults
37:00 – Fall Forecast: When, Why, and If Buyers Will Return

Also in This Episode:

• A cautionary tale of the $1.25M condo that relisted at $999K — same unit, different strategy
• Why switching agents without changing expectations is a recipe for failure
• What savvy agents are doing right now to actually close deals

Subscribe to The Last Honest Realtor on YouTube or your preferred podcast app. Drop a comment if you're navigating this market — or trying to make sense of it.

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Chapters

• 0:00 April Stats Are In: Listings Surge, Sales Stall
• 5:00 Buyer Confidence Is Gone — and It’s Not Coming Back Soon
• 10:00 Offer Nights That Go Nowhere: The New Normal
• 14:00 Why Sellers Refuse to Lower Prices Even When They Should
• 19:00 Condo Inventory, Absorption Rates, and the Myth of “Nothing Is Selling”
• 25:00 FOP greater than FOMO: The Psychology Driving the 2025 Market
• 31:00 Market Shocks Ahead: Interest Rates, Immigration Caps, and Precon Defaults
• 37:00 Fall Forecast: When, Why, and If Buyers Will Return

Transcript

SPEAKER_00: 0:00

Well, the April Treb stats are in the books, and last month we saw the most active listings in any one month in the history of Treb. Hello, everybody, and welcome back to the Last Honest Realtor podcast. I'm your host, David Fleming. Thank you so much for joining me here today as we look, among other things, at the most recent Treb data from the month of April. But more importantly, we ask and attempt to answer the question, why hasn't spring sprung? Now, this is in a real estate context, of course. We're talking about my front lawn. Oh boy, it's looking pretty green. Now, let's take a trip. I would actually love to do that because the market's really stressful. No, let's take a trip back to, let's say, last summer. I went on record and I said I thought that the fall was going to be busy. Now, why would that be? First of all, And I don't want to make excuses. It was before Trump and tariffs and all this stuff that happened this year. But the Bank of Canada was signaling a period of quantitative easing. They were starting to cut interest rates. We figured that many buyers would get out ahead of that. Of course, I wrote on my blog in the fall that I was very wrong. Yeah, it seems that buyers want to have their cake and eat it too. I use the example... of a buyer that could, let's say, buy a house for$1.2 million and maybe pay a little bit higher rate than if they waited six months to get a lower rate, but by then that house would go up to$1.3 million. Now, we know that didn't happen. That's fine. There were a lot of reasons why the market has stalled this year. But in a declining interest rate environment, typically prices do move up. So hindsight being what it is, I'm sure there are a lot of folks that said, oh, well, it was good to wait. Now the rates are lower. But we saw rates declining. We thought coming off of a peak in 2022, now here we are three years later, we would see an uptick in activity. So what happened? Well, spring of 2025 was supposed to be this big comeback. We did not have a capital gains hike. There were rate cuts and there were more on the way. We have now at least a little bit of political certainty. We're through the provincial election. We are now through the federal election. But instead of these bidding wars and frenzied buyers, a lot of sellers have found crickets. Offline, I'm dealing with exactly this right now. An offer date last night, got one offer, house didn't sell. It's very common. And I am telling my sellers in advance, hey, listen, it's not 2022. We have our offer night. We've done everything that we can possibly do. We've got the property ready. We took all your stuff out. We put it in storage. We painted. We put new carpets in the basement. We fixed up that hole in the roof. Not actually, but proverbially. And now we're going to see what happens on the offer night. They don't always work. Now, what has happened and does this recent stall set the stage for a bigger fall market or something else? So today we're going to break down the psychology, the policy, and the numbers that explain why didn't spring spring? It's a little confusing. So I'll start with this, guys. Let's say you came into this year full of you-know-what and vinegar. Yeah, I try not to swear here on the podcast. And like many sellers, you figured, okay, I'm getting my house ready for sale. January is usually a month when there's not a lot of inventory. And you got onto the market. And you put your property out there. You listed it low. You set your offer date. It didn't work. So then you relisted much higher. And then nothing. So you waited a little while and then you figured, well, maybe we'll reduce. And you did exactly that. And it was a lot more of the same, which was nothing. If you've heard this story once, you've heard it 10 times from me. There are properties now that are on their fifth or sixth listing. And I did an entire podcast once, which was kind of cool, although maybe a bit repetitive, about a property that was listed 26 times with five different agents and six offer nights. This sort of thing happens. Now, it's not to say that this never happened at the peak in 2022, but it is happening a lot more now. And we will eventually get into a lot of the psychology of sellers as to why that's not happening. Now, markets run on confidence. Who's feeling confident right now? When was the last time you checked your stock portfolio? One of my biggest pet peeves is all of the folks that say, don't look at it. Just don't look at it. You know, just don't do it. I've done that in the last few podcasts that bit. But yeah, when Trump announced tariffs in the stock market cratered All the financial analysts were saying, don't look at it. Just don't look at it. No, you should. You should know exactly what's happening. You should be completely up to date and informed. But the point I am making is that as I say that, I'm expecting some of you guys to awkwardly shift in your chairs a little bit. It has been a very, very difficult and tumultuous year. We started in January, of course, with Donald Trump talking about tariffs. And he came in and he made all kinds of threats leading up to his inauguration and afterwards. He set deadlines and then he extended deadlines. We had a provincial election. We had a federal election. Has there ever been a more uncertain time. Markets run on confidence and this spring revealed a profound confidence gap between buyers and sellers and only one side can really be right. It takes two to tango. I said to an agent last night, surely there is a Venn diagram that overlaps where my sellers will sell and your buyers will buy. We didn't have that Venn diagram. For those of you that are listening, I just removed my hands from on top of each other. They did not overlap. We did not find the area where we could come to a deal. And now, like many sellers out there, we're deciding, okay, what do we do next? So guys, I have a theory and I wanna run it by you. Buyers, Like to buy on the way up. Buyers would rather pay more and feel good about it. And we're talking about confidence. Markets run on confidence. And that's the whole theme, in my opinion, behind why spring didn't spring. It is a lack of confidence. So let me give you an example. Let's say that a share of stock or the proverbial widget, if you're from business school, is trading at$100. Now let's say that it drops to$95 and then to$90, then to$85 and then to$80. All the while you, the buyer or the investor, are watching this. Let's say it drops to 75 and you're thinking, geez, I could buy right now. Then it drops to 70 and you say, thank God I didn't buy. Then it goes up to 75 and you say, yeah, no problem. Markets fluctuate. Then it goes up to 80. You're not ready. You're not ready to jump in. It's tough. It's real tough. There's not a lot of confidence. It goes up to 85 and you, oh gosh, you want to act. You do. You do want to act, but you don't. When do you buy in? You buy in at 92.50. Now, 92.50, and sure, it goes back up 100, 100, 500, 110, what have you. The stock, the house, whatever it is. You got a deal because the market went from 100 and you bought at 92.50. But the point I'm making is that you could have bought at 75 or 70 and you didn't. Because that is how 99% of buyers think. Markets run on confidence. And it is so hard for buyers to buy on the way down. Buyers want to buy well, well on the way back up. Not just in our little example here at 76 or 78 or 80. Buyers want to know. They absolutely want to know. that it's on the way back up and it's not coming back down. So to me, this is sort of the opposite of FOMO. And if you think back to 2022, people were buying because of FOMO. Your friend bought a place. They're super excited. And then they told you, oh my gosh, the same unit, two floors up, just sold for even more than I paid. And you're thinking, well, geez, I got to get in. Now you are watching the market. You're buying a house in Leslieville. place sold for one, two, you love it. Next place sold for one, two, five, oh my God. Next place sold for one, three, that's FOMO. What's happening right now is the complete opposite, is that as things are declining, people are afraid of things declining even further. Now, I'm going to use an example here, and some people will potentially laugh at this, and that's totally fair. We just went through an uncertain time. When was the last time in our lives, let's say in the last five years, when we used that phrase so much, these uncertain times, these very uncertain times. Well, it was COVID. And I'm not trying to compare the last few months to COVID, but what I want to do is rewind a little bit and talk to you about 2020. The average home price in February was$910,000. And then in March, the world basically stopped turning on the 16th of March. And I remember very specifically, I had an offer date for a condo. Talk about how times have changed. It was in Regent Park. We listed for$499. We sold for$625. I think I had 15 or 16 offers. And that, to me, will always stand in my head as the last day before COVID. Because the next day, the world stopped turning, basically. And we were all told to board up our houses and stay inside. So the March average home price dropped to$902,000. Listen to this, guys. April's price dropped to$821,000. And then it ticked up a bit. in May to 863, and then by June it was at 930. Now what happened in there? The world stopped turning because of fear, because of the great unknown, because of what? A lack of confidence. Now before we get into the reasoning for this lack of confidence in the market over the last four months, I want to provide you with some data points that really underscore where buyer confidence is. or isn't. Now in January, we saw the third fewest number of sales in any January. I started tracking the data in 2002, so when I say any January, take that with a grain of salt, we saw the most new listings of any January since 2002. In February, it was the fewest sales ever in any Feb, and it was the sixth most new listings. Then in March, lowest sales ever in March, fourth most new listings, and then in April last month, oh hey look, It's only the second fewest number of sales in any March, except, with my blue pen I put an asterisk here, the fewest ever was in 2020 when sales, of course, mentioned earlier dropped to 2,975. So if you eliminate the pandemic-stricken 2020, we saw the fewest sales ever in Feb, the fewest sales ever in March, the fewest sales ever in April, and that April number was not even close to the second lowest, which of course happened to be in 2024. For the record, we saw the fourth most new listings in any month of April. So I think I'm driving home the point, a real lack in confidence. But of course, we now have to ask and answer the question, why? Now, spring listings surged and buyer activity underwhelmed. Showing activity declined. And this was so noticeable for anybody that had a listing. So here's what I found interesting. I spoke to a colleague of mine that had three offers on a house. She only had 18 showings. Now, I mentioned earlier a listing that we recently had one offer on. We had 20 showings. But another colleague of mine had 22 showings on her east side semi, and she had eight offers. Showing activity is down substantially. And from there, there's no real rhyme or reason to how many offers you're going to get. Now, these are all sort of in that range.$1 million to$1.3 million starter home segment. Now, price growth, if there was any, was modest and it was concentrated in select micro markets. As I mentioned, we're talking starter homes. That's where you might see a little bit of price growth. I would actually offer that in the$4 million market, there was price growth. Tara and I had a listing in Leaside for$4 million that people said was drastically overpriced. We got two offers and sold it for a quarter of a million dollars over. The good properties were selling, and in the markets where there's not enough for sale, because of course, we know there's a million condos, we know there's a lot of houses, but if you're looking for something highly specific, and there's not a lot of it, there will be price growth in that market. Now, condo inventory remains high, but the absorption rate is lower than it's ever been. Now, the absorption rate, for those not familiar, is basically the ratio of sales to new listings. We call that the SNLR, sales to new listings ratio, or the absorption rate. Anything below 50% is theoretically a buyer's market. Anything above 50% is theoretically a seller's market. I say theoretically because all so often we see an absorption rate at, let's say, 40%, but we're still seeing a bit of a seller's market. It hit 30% last month, and then 29%. And in April, it was 29.7. So it upticked about 0.7. So I say February, March, April. So rate-sensitive buyers are remaining cautious despite the Bank of Canada signaling potential cuts. And then you get into, which I've already mentioned, the post-election fatigue. So leading up to the election, a lot of people were paralyzed with fear. I mentioned earlier that the opposite of FOMO was essentially what was plaguing the market. People in 2022, well, they better get in because prices are going up. People in 2025, well, I don't know if I want to make that move because prices still might go down. Now, the buyers and sellers spent early 2025 waiting for this federal vote, and we never really developed any momentum. Momentum takes time, and this is why I mentioned, as we saw during COVID, that the market picked up later, and if it's going to happen, it's going to happen after COVID. the May and June, which is essentially the end of the spring market leading into what I think could be a busy summer. Now the rate cut hesitation. We thought there was going to be a rate cut last month, and there wasn't. We were all surprised by that. I think for a lot of buyers, that gave them pause. Divide those buyers into two categories. One are the buyers that just absolutely positively want to buy when there's another rate cut. Maybe they're price sensitive, or maybe they've just decided, I can't buy until I've seen X number of cuts or a certain rate. And the others are the ones that really, truly thought, you know what? If they're not cutting rates, maybe this isn't a good sign. And again, we go back to the fear. So seller price rigidity. We've talked about this a lot on the blog and a lot in the podcast. A lot of sellers are listing at 2022 prices and the expectations are through the roof. They have resisted reductions. And from there, I would say that there's this sort of erroneous belief that the market isn't doing well, that the market isn't moving. But here's a childish example. If you set up a$20 bill stand, yeah, you're selling$20 bills, but you're offering them for 33.50, sales are gonna be quite poor. Now, if at your$20 bill stand, you're offering them for$20, let alone$19.50, I'd say sales are gonna be pretty good. So I'm not trying to make an excuse for this market, but this erroneous belief that nothing is selling It's because of these sellers' expectations. It's because of so many of the sellers that simply will not accept what fair market value is. So with active listings at an all-time high and with sales at an all-time low, does that not just seem like a tug of war? I am not paying$33 for the$20 bill. Why would I? Now, the takeaway from here is that this wasn't a rate or supply issue because rates are low and supply is high, but it is a confidence and timing issue. And that psychology will, in fact, dictate the summer and the fall. The opposite of confidence is fear. Now, we have seen fear of missing out, which, of course, can lead to confidence. In this case is a fear of prices going lower, a fear of making a mistake that is leading to a crisis of confidence. So the summer ahead, what are the signals and what are the possible shocks? Talk to me about buyer psychology, seller psychology, and the market shocks. Now, buyers are remaining rate-obsessed and timing-sensitive, and I feel like there are a lot of folks out there right now that woulda, coulda, shoulda bought in the spring and are deciding to do it in the fall. Many of them do not know why. Yes, it could be the interest rates, it could be fear, but if you are buying a house to live in for the next 10 years, I have always maintained If you get a percent better next month or a friend of yours buys for 3% better next fall, remember why you're doing it. I have a friend of mine that's looking to rent a place. And he said, if I miss out on the absolute dream house during the year that I'm renting, I will be crushed. And I said, listen, and I'll use some numbers here. Let's say you're looking to buy a three and a half,$4 million house. And let's say you're renting for 7,000 a month. Worst case scenario, five months from now, you find the dream home. You buy it with a two month closing and you're eating five months of rent. Now,$7,000 a month,$8,000 a month, okay,$35,000,$40,000, no one wants to eat that amount of money. But if you're buying a three and a half to$4 million house, and you're doing this for the next 25 to 30 years, you've gotta put that into context. So some of you are gonna say, David, you're absolutely insane. Why would anyone waste that kind of a money? But relative to, if you're losing 40 grand in rent, you're buying for$4 million, it's a 1% delta. So the timing is going to be very important moving forward. I would also say there's an increasing reliance on pre-approval expiries and flexible closing timelines. So if you're a buyer right now, and I'll give you an example. I had clients that made an offer on a house in Leaside, but they need to sell their house. So obviously, if they need to sell their house to get the bridge, they need a longer closing. We made an offer with a four-month closing. We lost to an offer for less money that had a 40-day closing. And my clients couldn't understand. What do you mean we lost to a lower offer? The sellers wanted that quick closing, but my clients couldn't do the quick closing because they have to sell their house. So if you're buying a house and you're closing on August 30th, you've got to have your house sold firm probably by August 20th to get the bridge. Now move that up to June. It can't be done. I mean, maybe it could be, but we need to get the house ready. And God forbid it takes longer than three weeks to sell, we're absolutely screwed. So the flexible closing timelines are really important. And I feel that another reason why a lot of buyers aren't transacting is that they can't do it the way that we're accustomed to doing. So if you go back to 2022, you own a one bed, one bath condo, your partner, you're buying a semi. Congratulations. Go out and buy the semi. And hey, we'll get your condo, get it listed. We'll set an offer night. We'll get 14 offers and we'll sell it. No one ever really thought about the what if. What if I can't sell my property to get the bridge? That is playing a massive role in this market. And that is a real reason why sales are down. Now, last but not least, the fear of overpaying remains stronger than the fear of missing out. Fear of overpaying. What do we call that? FOOP? FOMO, fear of missing out. Yeah, FOPO, fear of overpaying. I'm going to coin that right now. Now, as for the seller psychology, the sellers are resisting price reductions, and a lot of them are testing the market for longer than usual. Now, I had one seller. We put their condo on the market, and they're overseas. And I had said to them, condos are taking a lot longer to sell. A lot of them, it's taking 60 days. At 30 days, I said, guys, we've had two showings. We need to do something about this. And the seller said, we're in no rush. You said 60 days. Talk to me then. Yeah. Yeah. Okay, they're not exactly out of line. That's what I told them. But we only had two showings. We've got to make the listing more attractive. So at 60 days, I said, guys, we have not had a showing since I talked to you last. We had two showings in 60 days. And they said, yeah, but we're in no rush. Now, they can crunch the numbers on that. What are you losing in rent? Or if you don't want to look at it that way, what is your mortgage interest plus your maintenance fees plus your heat, hydro, and utilities? And maybe if I said we need to reduce the price$25,000, they're thinking, well, it only cost me$2,000 a month to carry it. Everybody's different. And I'm not trying to push this listing out the door, but I am saying we're not getting showings. It was a price that You know, somewhere between what I said and what they ultimately wanted to do. And eventually we did reduce it. But they were in absolutely no hurry to do that. I would say that that is a classic example of testing the market. Now, some motivated sellers are quietly switching agents or preparing for relisting in late summer. I saw a listing lately. This was fascinating. It's a condo, it's pretty nice. It was at 1,250,000. I showed it to a client, didn't really like it, but I was like, this isn't 1,250,000. They didn't reduce, didn't reduce, didn't reduce. Then I got an email from a listing agent and said, we have taken over this listing and we are graciously reviewing offers on this date. So let me get this straight. The seller switched agents and then they took the 1,250,000 listing, priced it 999 and have an offer date. Is that really the best idea you've got? So you switched agents, but it's the same property. You switched strategies, but there's the same intrinsic value. So this property is worth 1-1. If you go to an offer date and you get 1-1, will you sell? In this case, probably not. Now, there's a noticeable gap between asking prices and buyer value of perception, and that is continuing to widen in certain neighborhoods. So I go back to the Venn diagram. What does my seller want to sell for and what does my buyer want to pay? Slap those two things over top of each other and that is your intersection of value. And from there, you can negotiate one way or the other to find out exactly what it's going to sell for. But if those two things are not overlapping, the property is not going to sell. Now that gap is continuing to widen. I think buyers are being very choosy. And I know we're on seller psychology now, but if I could go back to buyer psychology, I would say that buyers are being opportunistic. So if you see a house you absolutely love, it's at$9.99, you go to the offer date. Yeah, time was easy, 1.2513. Seller's looking for 1.2. You're the opportunistic buyer. You're not offering$9.99 because that's crazy. We know it's not worth that. But you're going in, you're offering 1.1. Take it or leave it. The seller's not going to take that. I mean, it's worth more than that. But does the seller want to relist? Have they bought a house? Do they need to sell? And the buyers in that case are being opportunistic. And go back to the seller psychology here. The sellers are saying, this is unfair. We should sell on offer night. And I feel like a lot of the agents aren't preparing the sellers for that reality. So when I have a listing, I set up a call with the client before we go to market. And I lay out what I expect. How many showings? How many requests for the home inspection? What's the process like? What are we looking for? And then the night before our offer date, I'll do the same thing. I'll set up a phone call and I'll say, guys, this is how the offer date works. These are our pros. These are our cons. Worst case scenario, best case scenario, what I think is going to happen. And they're not caught off guard. But what I'm finding a lot of the time is that When there are no offers on a house, the sellers absolutely lose their mind because the agents didn't prepare them in advance. So the potential market shocks here. We have the Bank of Canada June rate decision. Now, even a modest cut could potentially jolt buyer urgency or confirm market caution if they hold the rate steady. I believe they are going to cut, and I believe that that is a signal that there will be More cuts later in the year. The banks, of course, as they always do, will continue to revise their forecasts. It's easy to say that we expected 3% by the end of the year, but you know what? Now that rates have come down, we're going to revise our forecasts. We expect 2%. I love how the banks do that. The best Monday morning quarterbacking I've ever seen. Imagine if you could go and bet on the New York Yankees to win, and then they lose, and then the next day you're like, no, no, I thought it would be the Boston Red Sox. So we're going to see a lot of the banks revising their forecasts. And at some point, at some point, When rates are so low, the buyers will come back. Now, immigration permit caps. A lot was made of this during the election. Details are expected in the late summer, but this could sway the rental market demand and potentially get some investors back into the market. I think the investors are probably going to be later, at least as it you know, the 99% of investors. Some of them are already back in the market. Some of them are picking off units because they're seeing value and they're looking for 15, 20-year time horizons. The mom-and-pop investors, though, they're falling into the bucket of people that are afraid. And last but not least, the pre-construction defaults. A lot has been made of this. I've done podcasts and blogs on this, not to say I told you so, but that proverbial house of cards, people paying$1,700 a foot for pre-con when prevailing resale is selling at$1,100 a foot. And guess what? Now they can't close. It's not just the fact that these things are falling through that's a problem. It's the fact that the media is writing about it constantly. So a lot of the media doesn't differentiate between pre-construction and resale. And if you're the average condo buyer and everything in the media is negative condo, negative condo, you're not differentiating. That alone is enough to scare away buyers. So I think that's something to look for moving forward. Now, navigating the fall market, what should buyers be doing? Well, if you're a buyer, you use your leverage. You look for the seller that needs to sell, target listings with longer days on market, have your agent feel them out. There's still a lot of really bad agents out there that are acting like it's 2022, but I've got a condo that's been on the market for 120 days. An agent called me the other day, she said, are your clients flexible on closing? I said to her, listen, I'm the one agent that's going to work with you more than anybody else. We're very flexible on closing. Bring us an offer. We'd love to work with you. On the flip side of that is agents just start yelling into the phone. And they think that that's what negotiating is. And they think I need to take the leverage back. Don't overestimate your position. The goal is to get the property sold. And there are agents all over the city that are chasing away buyers and buyer agents. Now, buyers are looking to secure rate holds. But they will remain nimble if rate cuts are delayed. I think that for buyers, you really need to do the math and look at what is it going to cost you today versus six months from now? And how much are you paying in rent? And what is your anxiety premium, let's say? I always use the example of somebody that's pregnant and it's like, well, you can't stop that baby from coming. But no, I would just say that it's not purely an investment. You live in the house. Ultimately, would you be more comfortable in this house for the next six months and maybe give up the potential for a lower rate down the road? Now for sellers, navigating what's ahead. If listings are underperforming, consider adjusting the strategy now and not in September. I do have one client. He said, I want to take it off and I want to put it in the market in the fall. I said, no problem. What's the logic there? He said, well, the fall is going to be better. I really hope it is. And I've made a pretty good argument here today for why it will be. But what if it's the same? Or what if it's not? Now, this is somebody that is moving overseas forever. That's it. We're selling. There's an argument to be made that you should do it now, work with the devil you know, rather than the devil you don't. And there's an argument to be made that you've got nothing but time to wait. Now, for sellers, focus pricing on the buyer psychology today, not for a hoped-in fall optimism. I think that goes without saying. I think you have to understand where the buyers are and leave that little trail of breadcrumbs for them. Because the buyers right now, they're being opportunistic, as I've mentioned. The buyers understand that when there's one offer on an offer night, the seller doesn't have leverage. And it's fascinating to me because I made an offer on behalf of a buyer the other night. On the offer date, we made the offer. We're the only offer. And the seller said, listen, we're not in a position to take this. I said, I know, I understand. Sign it back. We're ready to work with you. That listing agent said, why would we sign it back? You come up. Okay. Walk me through that logic. We've made you an offer. No, no, no. We have an offer night. That's not how offer nights work. Okay. So you don't want to sign our offer back? We don't have to. We have all the power here. No problem. I said, you have our offer. You let me know what you want to do with it. I never heard back from that agent. Never heard back from that agent. What in the world is that about? So sellers... Understand that buyer psychology and prepare for a potentially competitive fall if the stalled spring sellers relist en masse. There were 27,386 active listings last month. I have that number etched in my brain because that is the most ever. As that continues to increase, the competition is going to put the buyers in the driver's seat. Now for investors and for agents, watch for the distressed or motivated sellers quietly testing the waters off market. Sure, why not? And you know, it's funny, there is a strategy where you take a house, you put it on the market, and if it's not selling, you take it off and you offer it privately. Now, why would someone do that? Because days on market, and I put it right here, target listings with longer days on market, and I'm talking about a particular house and we sat around the corner, if days on market rack up, you lose leverage. Now, as a strategy, what some sellers are doing is they're saying, take it off the market and then let people call you. That particular house, I actually had a client from the US, I called the agent, I said, Is this still available? The agent said, yeah, I guess. That agent created leverage because they took it off the market. That was a very savvy move. Now for agents moving forward, you need to stop seeing the agent on the other side of the transaction as an adversary and start seeing them as a partner. Because the deals that are getting done right now are the deals that are done with two like-minded agents that are courteous, professional, and understanding. Far too often right now, what I am seeing are agents on the other side that are being aggressive. Now, some of them know they've got a dog listing. They've got a seller that's massively overpriced and that they feel that they need to push and punch and scrape and claw and bring some sort of leverage onto their side. The other half are just jerks, to be perfectly honest. But none of those people are doing transactions. I mentioned in a previous podcast, an agent called me and said, I was going to bring you an offer, but it's going to be low. And I said, why wouldn't you bring me an offer? I don't care if it's for a dollar. Bring me an offer. That's how we start. And he said, you know, I've seen a few properties with this client, and I've talked to like three or four agents, and I tell them what I want to do, and they say, don't bother. I said to him, well, that's not me. It starts with an offer. He brought me an offer. It was very low. But you know what? We worked on it. And it took us five days, but we ended up doing a deal. The agents that are yelling on the other end of the line, they are not the agents that are going to get the deals done. Now, a couple of weeks ago, I did this podcast on sockless realtors. Well, not on sockless realtors. That was kind of the hook. And it's really a euphemism for the agents that got into the business, the young agents I'm going to typecasts, Of course, I was 24 when I got into the business, but the sockless realtors, the folks that came in 2017, 2018 to 2022, selling pre-construction, just pounding their chest, taking pictures in front of their luxury car and doing Instagram videos, starting at 5.30 in the morning and ending at midnight, how busy they are. I mentioned in that podcast, that stuff's gone. People don't want to see that anymore. What I truly believe is that we are seeing now a return to professionalism. And in that podcast, I mentioned professionalism A few agents, I said, Alex Braut, Corey Moran, Ralph Fox, Paul Johnson, a bunch of people that I really admired. And some of them reached out, they're like, hey, thanks, that was really nice. And a bunch of other agents listen to the podcast, and they're like, yeah, I really like those guys too. That's what works in this market. Agents that have an identifiable brand and a process, and they aren't trying to do 100 transactions. They're doing the ones that interest them, the ones that they're passionate about. And as I would say, myself and my team, we're the exact same way. What's not going to work in this market moving forward, dare I say, is the idea of, I don't know, a website where agents bid the commission down and then the seller finds out who won. Congratulations, Jimmy from Milton won with a commission rate of 2.7% for your listing in downtown Toronto. You just found out who's going to be your listing agent. Guys, listen, I'm a full-service agent. I've been that for 21 years. I don't want to make this into a podcast about why to hire a full-service agent. But I don't think now is the time to be getting Jimmy from Milton, the part-time Uber driver, part-time, I don't know, masseuse in the park, putting ads on Craigslist. No, seriously, that was a friend of mine once upon a time, who also happens to have a real estate license and will literally sell your place for 400 bucks. What's going to sell it are the professionals, the ones that, yes, are going to be They might be charging a higher rate, but they are doing all of the things necessary. They have a name, they have a brand, and you know what else they have? Respect and professionalism. And those two things, more than anything right now, are what is getting transactions done. Folks, thank you so much for watching as always. If you're watching this on YouTube, please feel free to drop me a comment. I always like reading those. 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