The mbaMission Podcast
Welcome to the mbaMission podcast, where every week we discuss different MBA application components and give our expert guidance on everything business school admissions related.
The mbaMission Podcast
Ep 31 |Top MBA Admissions Trends for 2025
In our first podcast episode of 2025, mbaMission's Harold Simansky, Jeremy Shinewald, and Jessica Shklar share their takeaways from the 2024 MBA application season and make predictions for the 2025 application season. They discuss macro trends related to the economy, the impact of AI on business school admissions, trends in GMAT scoring, and more.
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what's happening next year? what we're
seeing is admissions officers trying to
figure out how to stay ahead of the
curve of applicants who are so used to
using AI we are seeing more video
questions more interviews if I've just
spent hours and hours on my application
what do I do with that Jessica I'm
scared as you should be and I think
International um applicants are going to
be struggling with is this country a
good place for them to be in will there
be jobs for them afterwards Business
School Pops a little bit more during
recessionary times people say this is a
great time to go hideout business school
and I'll come back just during hiring
those of you who are thinking of
applying now remember that maybe 100
seats in your class have been taken for
two years
already it's a new year and a new look
and feel for the NBA Mission podcast we
had so much success with a more
traditional podcast last year that we've
decided to up our game again delivering
a more polished video podcast with some
incredible guests ranging from test
experts to admissions directors to our
very own in-house admission experts
we'll be covering the topics you want so
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subscribe wherever you get your podcast
what else is new I have a co-host none
other than my very first podcast guest
and the founder of mbaMission Jeremy
Shinewald thanks for having me Harold of
course and on this episode our very
first one of 2025 we are joined by NBA
admissions executive director Jessica
Shklar Jessica has been with MBA missions
since 2009 and she's basically an
industry Legend she has the most
five-star reviews of any admissions
consultant on GMAR club and is a top
consultant from poets and quants she's a
storytelling expert and has helped
hundreds of applicants get into all the
top Business Schools in the US and
around the world including The Usual
Suspects like HBS Stamford Warton
Columbia Booth INSEAD and many many more
right now we're looking at potentially a
very mysterious year after 2023
2024 we get to 2025 2026 and there are
already some whisperings about what's
going to happen let's first off thinking
about macro Trends how are macro Trends
really impacting application volume
anything from the economy which
direction is it going people getting
laid off even AI which then of course
brings us to also the micro trends
what's happening with the applications
themselves what are your thoughts well
let's start with the macro Trends and
talk about that for a little bit and I
think there are a lot of different
issues going on one is clearly the
effect of the election the US election
um and there's trepidation around that
and I think International um applicants
are going to be struggling
with is this country a good place for
them to be in will there be jobs for
them afterwards how should they be
thinking about moving to the US and I'm
starting to hear that more and more from
my clients as I'm sure both of you are
as well yeah I mean I attended a
summit recently from from GMAC and
they showed data I wish I could remember
the precise amount but they showed
data among Internationals I think it was
about 15% they saw a decline in GMAT
test takers which is a leading indicator
for application volume exactly so um
this is during Trump's first term so in
you know I don't know if maybe people
have a different
understanding they're accustomed to this
at some level they think that the four
years will pass quickly but I would
imagine that some similar drop will
occur among Internationals now depending
on perspective if you're an
international committed to apply in the
states maybe that's a good thing for you
maybe you're looking around saying this
is my chance to stand out but I think
there is some there are some
apolitically speaking there are there is
some data that said that last time Trump
came in GMAT test takers declined GMAT
test and they bounced back up I was
going to say GMAT test takers declined
except do we know how many applicants
International applicants I don't know I
don't know if we if we knew exactly how
many International applicants um fell
off and again that's GMAT test
takers that's a that's a view at the
entire test taking population and the
entire applicant population it's
possible that at the top schools that we
tend to deal with more the top 15
schools maybe there's a little less
volatility right among those programs
but I know that some of the
international programs were delighted
like I know that uh some of the Canadian
and European schools saw application
volumes increase and that made some of
those schools U more competitive which
again depending on if you were thinking
about applying to INSEAD before maybe like
oh I'm actually going to have a more
competitive pool because of trump so
it's a it's complicated do you think
that that works from the flip direction
are we seeing more Americans thinking
about going to European schools as a way
getting away the one thing I will say
when Trump's during his first term it's
the first time I ever did applications
or helped folks with applications from
Rotman from um British Columbia a lot of
European applications so I think we saw
it in very real ways here at our firm
yeah then one of the other big trends
that I'm thinking about is that COVID is
really in the past now and COVID impacted
volumes tremendously for several years
but now when I think about the essays
I'm working on who graduated in during
COVID and so our next cycle on the cycle
after that will be people who yes they
were affected by COVID during college but
it didn't affect their working
experience quite as much and so how does
that change things I don't know if that
changes their career trajectory their
timing for business school remember when
we were doing applications right during
covid and after every essay was about
right thank goodness we're not seeing
that anymore during covid applications
went up
initially question initially
applications went up a Nick at some
schools keep in mind when it hit in you
know in March of 2020 um you know we
were kind of through rounds like
Harvard Business School only has two
rounds they were effectively done and
they didn't open up a late round some
other schools said we've got to be more
flexible we got to open up we got to
extend our year people haven't had a
chance to take tests that it took a
while to get the GMAT online ultimately
some schools saw a bit of a pop but I
think it's important to set the cont to
to create that context that basically
over the 20 plus years that I have been
doing this
full-time applications to Harvard
Business School as a bellwether have
been between roughly 9,200 and a little
under 10,000 applicants every year so it
fluctuates you know 2 3% a year
depending on where the economy is and in
the overhang of covid for 2 years the
only time in my 20 years I've seen the
number that didn't start with nine it
went down to about I think 8,700 and
then
8,200 and people were saying oh is the
business is an MBA gone are people
done and in fact it was just people were
very happy with their work from home
life their job security and as we'll
talk about a lot of that appears to be
gone and a lot of young people rush back
so last year it we actually reverted
to the mean and there are all these
articles written about oh you know the
MBA is back and it's surging but really
it just went back to a local
band where about I think HBS had about
9700 applicants last year again which is
right where it should be we can
certainly talk about where it's
going to be going you know in general
and not everyone applies to HBS there
are other schools that are maybe a
little bit more sensitive to macro
Trends but we're at least for now you
missed your great years to apply uh you
know 8700 8200 those are quiet years and
now we're back in a pretty normal cycle
couldn't we also say that there was a
bubble afterwards because there were a
lot of people who decided they didn't
want to go remote people who deferred if
they've been accepted to a school that
was then going to be remote and that
took up spaces from those future classes
so there was more constraint for a while
there and I feel like all that's passed
and so now the classes are back to being
you apply and then you go with one big
distinction which is deferred programs
which have really grown when I joined
the company and started this business
Harvard was pretty much the only one
with a deferred program and now I think
there are at least eight or 10 and so
those of you who are thinking of
applying now remember that maybe 100
seats in your class have been taken for
two years already right like Warton had
Warton had 60 direct admits from its
from its well 60 deferred admits from
its uh its molus program in its last
Core last uh last class you know Orton
has 850 spots like so 60 are gone you
know it's close to it's we're nearing
10% that are gone before current
applicants even have a chance to get
into the pool and then look at like
other specialized programs like at
Wharton they've got their Healthcare
Management program they got their
Wharton water program and as you start
to chip away you realize that some of
these classes are actually a lot smaller
you know object what is it objects in
the mirror maybe larger than
they're a lot smaller than they appear
we should price take a minute though and
Define what we mean by deferred programs
so deferred programs are when you apply
as a senior in college typically the
deadline is April I think HBS is still
January but don't quote me on that and
you don't work right you don't go to
business school right away you get
accepted for a class two or three years
down the road and you do have to work
and the Business School generally has to
approve you not all programs are
structured the same way for Yale you can
you join right away then take two years
off and then do another year but when we
talk about deferred programs and I think
all of us by Instinct default to calling
them two plus two simply because that
was Harvard which is the first one we
mean seniors in college who get in but
aren't going to start for two or three
or four more years and if you apply as a
deferred applicant
that's not a commitment like you
are not it's not binding so we're seeing
another Trend out there we're seeing a
lot of applicants say okay well I
better apply when I'm in college feeling
like a little bit of that fear of
missing out as their friends start
applying and then maybe they don't get
into the top school that they want to
but they've got they're pre- admitted to
another school and then they start
applying again in another round right so
there's it's a different kind of
pressure on that applicant pool and
admissions officers have said to me they
feel like almost part of their job is
become is become making sure their
deferred pool doesn't melt away that's
interesting and also we used to think of
it because of the Harvard program as the
2 plus two but actually it could be 2
plus three or four or even five years
out so there's some spillage over that
as well to what's happening next year
we're hearing a few different things
regression to the mean as far as the
number of applicants at the same point
the actual class is getting chipped away
whether it's at Warden with the louder
program these deferred admission
programs volume changing international
volume is changing that's right and then
so much can be driven also just by
the economy right like so again
trying to be AP political but like if
there is in fact a massive Terra War
what does that do I mean generally
speaking Business School Pops a little
bit more like we said during covid when
the during a uh you know during
recessionary times people say this is a
great time to go hide out in business
school and I'll come back just during
hiring so you know it's really hard
to know what happens with an economy you
know honestly a lot of things a lot of
different obviously um different factors
are playing a role here so Jessica
what's going to happen that is such a
great question and what's going to
happen with the entire economy entire
economy and all geopolitical impact
exactly and where should I invest my
money now right so obviously if I knew
that things would be different and I
think that actually brings me exactly to
the point I wanted to make to our
listeners which is our viewers which is
what does this mean for you and the
bottom line is not that much you don't
have control over any of the things we
just discussed the only thing you have
control over is your application and
your candidacy and so you can be aware
of the these factors and maybe they
would play into what schools you apply
to how safe you go whether you look at
International programs maybe into your
career discussion but fundamentally your
job is to make yourself the best
candidate you can and not worry about
these macro Trends which probably leads
not to step on your toes Harold to our
second point which is about micro trends
yes yes yes but I but I would say one
other thing which is that you're not
even going to know what that macro trend
is until well after you're admitted like
they like they so you can guess oh
my God this year is a really busy like I
thought that I thought that COVID was going
to go off the charts bananas I thought
we're going to see 11,000 applicants at
Harvard 12,000 or something like that
well Harvard was done but you know that
type of thing right it just it just
didn't materialize quite that way and we
didn't know that until you know small
pop at some schools or a bigger but it
wasn't it wasn't crazy we didn't know
that until well after that class was
admitted like the class was you apply
the class is admitted and then once
they've got all their final numbers
because literally they've got people
matriculating on the ground they can
then say this is our class and they
release data like a month or two after
that in October November of the of the
of the year after in which you've
applied and so you know you don't even
know what you're facing what we're also
seeing in the news is the fact that
there have been layoffs in a lot of
different parts of the economy
Jeremy how is that going to affect
things yeah like I think on a macro
level we think about like the general
economic health but what are the jobs
that young people are taking young
people are generally taking jobs in
finance in technology and Consulting
that's often 65 70% of the class at a
top MBA program and so I would say that
the you know that the application
volumes are actually more sensitive to
those three Industries than they are to
GL to Big global economic trans and um
and there was seemingly big over hiring
in Consulting for a period that's right
and applicant there are fewer offers to
stay there's less hiring going on um so
I think some applicants are starting to
you know look around and think about
their next move towards business school
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subscription okay Jeremy so just picking
up on what you said the reality is we
are seeing some macro Trends we're
seeing macro Trends in Consulting we're
thinking about macro Trends as far as
Tech goes some of it is driven from AI I
think this is a great segue to the
second half of our podcast to talk about
how is AI going to affect the actual
application Jessica what are your
thoughts it's a great question and we've
spoken with several admissions directors
um who are really struggling with this
because the generation that's applying
is very comfortable with AI sometimes
more comfortable than the admissions
officers are and so they're trying
rapidly to get up to speed I was at my
HBS reunion a couple of months ago and
it was you know two days of workshops
and sessions and I went to three
sessions solely on AI because my
generation we have to push ourselves
to use it and so this is a case where
admissions directors are running behind
the applicants on their knowledge and
are trying to figure out what does this
look like from an application standpoint
and so what we're seeing is applications
really changing to try to get around the
AI the risk that they are being written
by AI more video essays questions that
are multi-art and more complex than
we've seen shorter making them tougher
to write yeah and we'll probably have an
entire podcast on I say because I'm GNA
say this as a caution anytime I mention
AI be really really careful we always
can tell when something's been written
by AI and in fact Jeremy did this for
for us as a team of asking AI to
write essays and presenting it at staff
meeting and we all knew instantly AI is
a tool it is not a substitute for you so
we'll get to that on another I was going
to say we're going to talk a lot more
about AI at a different podcast what I
always tell people AI is great at
getting you to mediocre it doesn't get
you to it does get you to mediocre right
so what we're seeing is admissions
officers trying to figure out how to
stay ahead of the curve of applicants
who are so used to using AI for papers
and whatever else they're doing
so they are we are seeing more video
questions more interviews right
some scary video questions actually as
we as we think about the MIT application
towards of the end what pops up then is
a quick video on something to be
determined it varies from person to
person if I'm an applicant if I've just
spend hours and hours on my application
what do I do with that Jessica I'm
scared yeah absolutely uh as you should
be because so first think about why does
the admissions office do this they're
trying to put a name and a face together
they're trying to verify that you are
who you say you are you have this
beautiful polished essay that's got lots
of multi-lab words and commas and
phrases and sub Clauses and then you get
up and you can't articulate and speak
English at all there's going to be a
disconnect so for that some reason it's
that as an applicant you really also
should think about the fact that
Business Schools aren't looking for you
to be perfect they understand that in a
video where you have not had any
preparation you're not going to be
perfect and articulate but they're
trying to prepare you for or any
business situation that you might find
yourself in if you get into the elevator
and the CEO is the person next to you
you don't have time to prepare a speech
and edit it and analyze it you need to
be able to talk off the cuff if you're
at a recruiting event and they someone
walks by and asks a question you need to
be able to speak quickly and
articulately so Business Schools are
trying to prepare you and assess you on
key skills that you need for life and
one of them is the ability to think on
your feet and so it's scary for those of
you who spent lots of time preparing and
who are nervous about presenting
yourself as we all were when we went to
business school um it is designed for
the business schools to test a number of
different strengths one of the things I
was told before I started business
school from an Alum said that the
key thing to remember is that what the
purpose of the case method which is how
Harvard teaches is that you might be in
in a finance class and working on a
finance case and discover that the
problem is in HR what business school is
trying to do is teach you to think in a
multifaceted nonsiloed way and I think
if you take that idea for the
application itself and understand that
what business school is trying to do is
understand what skills you're going to
bring to the classroom and to the
business World it helps explain a lot of
the admissions process because in the
real world when you're giving a
presentation you don't have 900 words to
explain an essay you have 300 that's
right and so they're trying to model and
sense that you have those skills so
that's one key thing we're seeing in
business school admissions is more
variety in the types of questions one
way AI is affecting the applications as
admissions officers trying to get up to
speed on it themselves um and also um
trying to find ways in the application
to prevent you from using AI I would say
like but In fairness there probably are
a few a few use cases where AI can be a
little bit helpful to you you know if
you wanted to uh do a whole bunch of
interview prep you could type in you
know to chat GPT you know give me a long
list of MBA interview questions or
something like that that can help you
out I'll give you a great example um I
have a friend who's a Stanford Business
School grad and she was job hunting a
couple of years ago and so I sat down
with her and I talked to her about how
do you interview and how do you prepare
for interviews and so I went through
with her a lot of the techniques I use
with my clients in preparing where you
really go underneath your story and try
to understand the motivations behind the
bullet points on your resume and she
loved this technique and actually taught
it to her executive coach and ended up
putting together for herself 30 or 40
pages of stories from her life of
answers to her questions now she's
trying to write a board bio so that she
can be interviewed for different boards
so she put into chat GPT the 30 or 40
pages of self-reflection she had done
and her resume and said to chat GPT
write a board bio for me and identify
the kind of places that would um be a
good fit and it came out with some
amazing stuff but that's based on a
tremendous amount of work on her part
part first she couldn't just stick a
resume in there and yeah so input is what
and then that's really technology
excellent inputs no no and also honestly
it's really AI does a thousand Google
searches at once if you look at the
output of chat GPT it sources everything
so the reality is is you could get to
the same place if you start using Google
for everything if you use grammarly for
everything but this is beyond the
subject matter of this particular
podcast we are going to be going to talk
about AI specifically but at this point
Jeremy so tell me are Gat Norms becoming
clearer now that's a great question we
have another podcast with Stacy Koprince
coming out soon she is the head of
curriculum at Manhattan Prep the best
GMAT shop in the world so let's
talk to her about that but I think for
now you know first of all the GMAT
changed significantly uh but gear Oro yes
give or take and the reason why it
changed is because so many people were
maxing out on the Quant that basically
this is sort of short-handed a little
silly way to say it but kind of broke
the scale right and so um there wasn't
enough differentiation between top
scores anymore and they just they
basically just had to recalibrate the
entire thing and in doing so they kind
of made some other tests to make it more
user friendly to compete with the GRE
Etc we're talking about the GMAT Focus
yes the GMAT Focus so if you look at the
old GMAT at this point and you look at
the new GMAT there isn't enough data at
this point even having gone through one
full class as the schools announced
their class profiles that included the
GMAT focus and they've retired the name
the GMAT Focus making things more
complicated but we'll use that
distinction right and so what has what
has happened really at this point is
from an applicant point of view people
are still referencing the old GMAT
averages and looking at a GMAT
conversion table that's published by
GMAC that says an old 740 is a 685 on
the new GMAT right except then a 750 is
a 685 the imprecision of that
concordance table also adds to the it's
a little imprecise but one thing I would
say if you're looking to understand if
you're taking the new GMAT which you can
only do now it's really if it ends at a
five it's the new GMAT if it ends at a
zero it's the old GMAT I think the
admissions officers are still sort of in
the same world as us they've been so
used to one standard they're like still
trying to mentally calibrate and say
like what does this mean this person has
a
665 this person has a 63 I bet you
they've all got big big conord stes
right by their office that's especially
true because although Business Schools
started accepting the GMAT focus in
round two Harvard and Wharton didn't and
so they have never had applicants with
that Jessica let me just ask a question
here to pull us back to sort of what's
going to happen next year I always think
that GMAT gr is it going up every single
year this going up yeah has that been
our experience they've kind of at
the top schools they've kind of
plateaued 740 740 163 on each side on
the GRE continued to go up over
time as from the very beginning it used
to be kind of a workaround and now it's
getting pretty close to like maxing out
at 165 at some schools 164 163 but like
yeah I I think I think there's
still room for decline but I think
that's the point I think the point was
there was nowhere for the GMAT to go
anymore and I think they I don't think
they wanted it to go higher per se but I
think that actually
could be part of this I think when
people were saying before like I've got
a 760 like I if I retake this there's
there only two points that I can get
three points it's very rare for someone
to get an 800 um you know and so now I
think it's like okay I've got a 685
there's a there's a there's there a
couple there are many many different
rungs on that ladder that I can push you
this could actually maybe they know I'm
sure they consider this could drive some
applicant bananas because they be like
I'm so far from the top right but I
think the other thing is we're seeing
more tests right we're seeing G used to
be GMAT and some people took GRE then
the GRE increased so it's now roughly 30
to 40% of applicants then they launched
the executive assessment which is
primarily for EMBAs but there are more
and more um two-year programs that are
accepting the EA and then there are some
schools that are waving the GMAT if
you've taken HBS core so there's more
and more flexibility in tests I think
reflecting the fact that the tests are a
much bigger deal to applicants than to
um that has always been off we have
always had that had that conversation
with our clients we've always had a
conversation with ourselves so pecul
it's so peculiar that Business Schools
even require a test considering like if
if you have a degree in
economics Investment Banking you 30
years old yeah and you worked in
yeah you worked in Consulting and
then yeah then industry and you're yeah
and you've got you know you've got
all this analytical experience behind
you what information do they actually
need to say that you can manage
analytical work and I think that one of
the issues we talked about talk about
all the time with our clients I'm sure
you guys have this experience is another
10 points is not going to change your
your overall profile if you have a 3.7
GPA and a I don't know equivalent 730
GMAT 740 maybe it helps the schools
average but it's not fundamentally going
to change your profile they are looking
at your overall academic profile and
it's already really good let's move on
and focus on other parts of your
candidacy so Jessica that brings us back
to the original question the candidates
from year to year are they looking for
different people can we say in 2024 they
were looking for type A and 2025 they're
looking for type B can we ever get there
if we could ever get there it would be a
rear view look where we would look you
know a year down the road and say oh
this CL the school took fewer
Consultants possibly down the road we
will say oh back in 2025 they were
taking few fewer people from AI there's
absolutely no way like a 20-year view of
this industry would say that I which I
have I would say the changes are so
subtle it's like when I went in you know
people had two or three years of
investment banking well private equity
boomed and now it's two years of
investment making two or three years of
private Equity you know it's like
that wasn't driven by admissions that
was driven by a change in the way
Finance works you know you had you had
Tech hiring was much smaller at the
beginning and it was like a big deal to
have programming experience like
everyone had programming experience
that's it's just completely
it's not necessarily that appealing to
to a to a to a business school now it's
like okay I've got I've got Cutting Edge
AI experience well maybe that maybe
that's like a little if you really
credible it could be a little helpful to
you but like a lot of people have that
too you know so the compensation of the
class is just sort of overwhelmingly
Consulting Finance Tech but does that
mean that people who aren't in those
fields should run away from it you
brought up a trend when you talked about
Investment Banking and then private
Equity that are seeing which
is it used to be 2 years work experience
and then you apply to business school
and now sometimes we're even seeing four
years isn't enough I think the caveat
always is it has to be the quality of
your experience but when I joined here
and started working in this field two
years of really good experience could
still make you a credible applicant now
I look at two years no matter how good
the experience is and it's just not
enough it has to be something really
really spectacular that's almost like a
a proxy for five years EXA exactly yeah
I'll be honest with you just over the
last 3 four 5 years I just don't see
that many applicants with only 2 years
of experience yeah and I certainly don't
see successful ones that's very true too
that's very yeah it's almost like
the ones that you see who get in
like that have to have they sort of
have more it's like well yeah like I'm
two years out of school but I
started college yeah and so I kind of
have four years of experience I think
that's something really really and that
is how we end up positioning it on the
applications because we don't want them
to appear obviously we're position it
accurately but we will boost the impact
of those college Years yeah to try to
make a proxy for showing that they have
more experience yeah okay Jeremy to
summarize can you just take us through
some of the macro Trends you're seeing
big picture things I mean look the
things we've talked about I think that
overall we're kind of in this very
normal band and so there's a lot of
noise there's a lot of noise there's AI
and there's the concern about
you know about tariffs disrupting the
economy or some Internationals who may
fall off but like I would expect that
we're in a pretty stable area for MBA
admissions right now and that this this
year might grow or Shrink by a percent
or two but we'll probably be more of the
same okay great thank you and now in
summary what's going to happen with the
applications next year Jessica I predict
that we will see even more video
questions even more attempts at
spontaneity in the application and I
think we're going to continue to see uh
GMAT scores that are increasingly
trending towards the GMAT Focus
or the GRE and that's and probably
more interesting and shorter questions I
think the big takeaway that we all can
agree on is it's about the quality of
your application the reality is much of
this just doesn't matter right at the
end of the day for you as an individual
Kate it doesn't matter you have to do
the best possible application you can
right what I tell people when they come
onto consultations free consultations
with me and say does it matter that I'm
from EXC country or does it matter that
I went to ex didn't go to ex kind of
school I literally my first response is
what are you going to do about
it and they're like oh you're right I'm
like you could be aware of it we can
mitigate it or emphasize it but
fundamentally if you cannot change it
there's so much to worry about in the
application process don't worry about
what you can't change that's right
absolutely absolutely great then well
Jessica thank you very much for joining
us my new co-host Jeremy congrats
on a fantastic verse podcast well done
friend of course of course and we now
have more podcasts to come thank you
very much everyone it's Harold Simansky at
mbaMission.