Brazil's War of Narratives

Brazil's political landscape is fraught with complexities as the elections approach. The Banco Master scandal poses significant challenges for Lula's campaign, even as the economy shows signs of improvement. 

Understanding these dynamics is crucial for predicting the outcomes of the elections and the future of Brazilian governance. As developments unfold, it will be essential for voters to critically assess the narratives surrounding the candidates and the implications for the country. 

And, polls suggest a tight race, indicating that Flávio Bolsonaro - son of former president Jair Bolsonaro - is neck and neck with Lula as they head into the October elections.

This week on The LatinNews Podcast, we talk to André Borges, Associate Professor of Political Science at the University of Brasilia and one of the editors of: "The Recasting of the Latin American Right: Polarization and Conservative reactions." 

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Transcript

SPEAKER_00 0:03

Welcome to the Latin News Podcast, a fortnightly deep dive into key developments from across Latin America and the Caribbean. Here's your host from Bogota, Colombia, journalist Richard McCall.

SPEAKER_02 0:17

This is the Latin News Podcast. I am your host, Richard McCall here in Bogota, Colombia. Our very special guest this week is in Brasilia, capital of Brazil. We're talking to the Andre Borges, who is the Associate Professor of Political Science at the University of Brasilia or Universidade de Brasilia. He is also one of the editors of an award-winning book, The Recasting of the Latin American Right, Polarization and Conservative Reactions. So welcome on the Latin News Podcast.

SPEAKER_01 0:52

It's good to be here with you.

SPEAKER_02 0:57

Well, it's a great pleasure to be discussing uh Brazil at this moment in time. I mean, obviously we have elections on the horizon in October, but also we need to put this all into context with what is taking place around the world and indeed Brazil's cooling economy and well uh in the wake and the continuing issue of the banking scandal with Banco Master. So perhaps you could put uh Brazil's actual situation into context for us.

SPEAKER_01 1:32

Okay, great. So um I think the the first thing I should mention is that we are uh probably gonna have a you know very uh uh uh you know a very hotly contested election. Uh as some of you may know, um in 2022, four years ago, uh when Lula was elected president, he he did so by a very tiny margin of the vote. Uh and I think we we we're gonna see the same scenario once again. Uh this time Lula is running for re-election, uh, and his uh main opponent is uh Flavio Bolsonaro, who is uh one of the uh four sons of former president uh Jair Bolsonaro. And opinion polls show that uh Lula and uh Flavio Bolsonaro they are uh very close uh to each other in simulations of uh uh runoff election. Uh actually they are in a technical tie. Uh so this makes me think uh we are gonna see you know a very, very uh tight election. Um and I mean right now uh my impression is that uh the incumbent government is having some trouble in terms of uh converting uh economic gains uh in the last four years into uh popularity, you know. Uh because right now uh Brazil has uh inflation under control, uh, unemployment is you know at um historically low levels, uh, but yet uh Lula's popularity is uh stagnated. Uh and there has been a lot of debate on I mean, why is that what is you know exactly going on? Um and surely that's where uh the uh you know the Banco Master case uh could uh you know help us to understand what is going on in in voters' minds. Because to you know, to give you like a broad picture of uh uh what this is about, uh the master bank, uh you know, the uh uh we have just uh realized that uh mayors and state governors from you know different states, they were buying uh you know uh titles uh you know uh signed off by uh master bank. And we have learned that many of these titles they were uh you know they they had no kind of coverage, actually. You know, they were uh uh the the owner of the master bank has been arrested by fraud. Um and it seems that uh several uh politicians, judges, and other high-ranking uh officials, they were uh involved in this scam. Um uh and uh it seems that uh part of the population thinks that uh the government, you know, the Lula government uh is to be blamed by this scandal. Uh although you know actually, when when we look at uh you know the ideological leanings of the state governors who were actually uh involved uh in these uh operations, uh most of these governors are actually uh right wing, you know, they are they are closer to former president Bolsonaro than to Lula. Uh but yet uh many voters think that you know, well, if there is a scandal, uh the government is to be blamed for it. And I think this is not hard to understand because usually uh when something goes wrong, you know, uh the incumbent government is going to take part of the blame. Uh and it does not help the fact that we have some uh Supreme Court judges who uh have been, you know, who have had some, let's say, troubling Laysians with this uh uh with Daniel Vojcaru, which is the you know the former owner of uh Banco Master. Um and because uh many voters, especially those voters with more uh right-wing leanings, they tend to think that the Supreme Court is closed, aligned uh with Lula. Uh so they you know that this uh probably makes them think that, you know, well, in the end, this is a left-wing, you know, scandal because you know the Supreme Court is leftist, we have some Supreme Court uh judges who are involved, and so you know, uh the left is responsible for this. Uh, and I suspect that you know this is uh one of the explanations why uh Lula's popularity is uh does not grow. I mean it's it's stagnated. Is there any way Lula can try to distance uh himself from the scandal? Uh well I uh I think that uh uh what what the government is going to try to do is probably to uh associate uh the scandal to Flavio Bolsonaro, to you know the uh the opposition presidential candidate. Uh and and and and this is because uh Flávio Bolsonaro he bought a house, you know, uh a luxury house here in Brasilia. Uh and it seems that this house was sold by one of the companies that were part of the master holding me. It's you know it's a very, very uh dubious uh you know business. And he he actually he he never explained exactly how he got you know the money to pay for. We are talking of a you know 15 million uh hi's house, which is something like uh three million dollars, you know. Uh, and obviously you you can't buy a house like that with you know your uh a salary as a as a senator, you know. So I I suspect that uh Lula's campaign is going to try to say, well, you know, uh look at the other side, you know, these guys there are also uh and and and and also there are several um riping governors uh here in Brazilia. Um Brasilia is uh actually a sort of city-state, you know, because instead of a mayor, we have a governor. Um and the governor of Brasilia uh he he tried to use uh Brazilia's uh because Brasilia has a public bank, an investment bank called uh BRB, uh BRB, it's the regional bank of Brasilia. And so um Ibanés Rocha, who is the governor of Brasilia, he tried to use the regional bank uh to buy uh the master bank. You know, uh it's you know a very, very complicated uh story, uh because up to now uh no one has been able to explain why the Bank of Brazilia tried to uh you know to buy a private bank who you know everyone else knew uh was in trouble, you know, who was uh and uh you know if you if you had a look at the you know at the balance, you know, the balance sheets of this this bank, you would say, well, we we can't buy this thing, you know. This is this is obviously we we are going to to have uh serious issues here. Uh well in the end uh the master bank was not uh bought, but uh obviously as you can imagine, uh Ibanezen and his group here in Brazil, I mean, they they are in trouble because now they have to explain uh you know well what exactly you know was going on. Uh and so it seems to me that we are going to have a war of narratives, you know, because on the one hand, uh the Liberal Party, which is uh Bolsonaro's party, is going to try to say that uh, you know, the Lula government is responsible for the scandal, and then the other side is going to no, no, no, no, this is not the case. Look at all these uh uh right-wing governors, uh and uh you know, and some of them, you know, they were actually supported by Bolsonaro in the past, uh and you know they they are involved in this scam. And so that's that's what I'm I'm expecting. We we are going to see in the in the Maf suit to to come. Uh but I I I just I don't know if I missed your question. Yeah, because you you asked if Lula uh yeah, if if there could be a way for him to to uh uh you know distance himself. Uh so well, I think the exact answer to this question is I'm not very sure, you know, because as I said, this is going to be a war of narratives. Uh and this country is very much polarized. You know, that's uh and I think that's the issue. Uh I think Brazilian politics has become more like American politics. Uh and I might say that this is not good. No, this is not good at all, because we have uh uh a very divided country. Uh and and if and even voters' evaluation of the economy is sort of uh filtered by partisan lines, you know. Um and I think that's the other issue, you know, because those voters who like Bolsonaro who identify with the Liberal Party, uh they tend to have a much more negative view about the economy. Although, in a in objective terms, you know, if we look at the economic indicators, I mean, it's better. I mean, there is no question about that. In terms of uh any any indicator, you you you can name it, you know, GDP growth, uh inflation, uh unemployment, you know, everything is much better now than it was four years ago. Uh but yet, as I said, this uh has not been enough for Lula to get, you know, uh this is not gonna make Lula have an easy election.

SPEAKER_02 12:46

You know, Lula is is running for his fourth non-consecutive term. It's pretty incredible when you talk about this. Uh perhaps we should just explain quickly to some of the uh the listeners that the you know the Banco Master scandal, if you're not uh aware, uh is you know a sophisticated fraud and money laundering network which in the end has been seen to involve organized uh crime groups operating within the mainstream financial ecosystem. Um it's a serious situation. This I mean this would bring down a government uh in a in another situation, I think. Um even though Lula, of course, as you said, is not you know, not uh entirely uh, you know, he's he's not I don't know. I mean, uh how much did he know about this and how much is going on, but the economy, as you said, the indicators are positive. Uh I I saw a figure that uh inflation is estimated at 4.36 percent uh in a in a recent poll. This is you know by any by any standard, this is great here in uh in in in South America, uh Latin America. I'm I'm also curious if if we can talk about the um the package uh that uh Lula you know launched uh on the 6th of April in order to um you know measures to to cushion the impact of international energy price volatility. Um perhaps we can we can talk about that.

SPEAKER_01 14:24

Yes, uh so the the government is trying to uh avoid you know uh a sudden rise in in the prices of fuel. Um and so uh this package basically what it does is to reduce uh taxation on uh gasoline and uh and diesel as well. Uh and and also there has been some uh recent measures to uh to reduce the prices of uh well I don't I don't know the word uh the the term in English, but it's the the fuel used by airplanes. Uh and so uh I think there has been uh an attempt to uh to deal with that. Uh but I mean for those listeners who don't know much about Brazil, I think I should mention that uh uh Brazil is in a much more comfortable position to deal with this uh crisis, because uh right now uh Brazil actually exports oil. You know, uh it's true that we still depend on imported oil from uh other countries, you know, because the the oil produced in Brazil is a sort of heavy oil that is is not that good to produce gas. Uh, but yet I mean I can tell you uh since uh the war on Iran started, uh I didn't notice any major increases in gas prices, you know. Uh and this has to do with the fact that you know we we uh right now we do not uh depend on uh we do not depend much on imported oil, you know, different from other uh South American countries. And uh and actually, you know, uh and and that is uh uh uh you know this is something that uh is probably going to benefit the incoming government, you know. Uh this is going to be good, you know. The fact that oil prices are rising, uh this is going to be good in terms of uh government revenues, you know, because uh Brazil's oil giant, Petrobras, is a you know, it's a government-owned company, you know. Uh and when Petrobras has uh record receipts, record profits, you know, this is good for the government, you know. This means uh extra receipts. Uh and some economists they are saying that Brazil's fiscal deficit is going to uh to decrease mainly because of uh an increase in oil prices. Uh and and and it's it's interesting, you know, because uh when Trump, when Donald Trump was elected uh in 2000 uh 2020, right? Uh he uh many many many people here in in uh in Brazil, they were uh worried, you know, about well, uh Lula is going to face a hostile, you know, hostile federal administration. Uh but uh right now uh it seems that actually uh Trump's administration uh has not been bad at all, you know, for uh for Lula and and for the the PT, the workers' party. Uh because some of the measures he took, uh for instance, uh increasing import tariffs uh to sort of penalize Brazil, uh they had the opposite impact, you know. Uh because I mean uh in the end, this had no impact whatsoever on the Brazilian economy. Uh and the government uh was actually able to profit from this case, you know, because he used uh this dispute with the uh United States to boost a sort of uh nationalist discourse, you know. Uh, and this was actually bad for uh you know the uh the opposition, you know, because uh Jair Bolsonaro, as you may know, he's very close linked with uh Donald Trump. You know, uh Brazil's far right uh has very, very close uh connections to the outright in the United States. So uh this proximity with Donald Trump, I I can tell you this this is not good for them, you know, because uh uh right I I I mean I I have seen some recent polls. Uh I think uh uh I mean the the the opinion of Brazilians about the United States, it's it's probably at a historical low. You know, uh most people here don't have you know a good uh opinion, you know, uh uh about uh the United States. And uh and now we have the war on Iran. Uh and I mean in the end, this this this might happen, this might help the government in uh you know these final uh months, uh just because you know the government's going to have uh extra revenues, you know. That's it. It's uh um so it's it's actually a sort of uh paradox, you know. Uh and some people here in Brazil say that uh Donald Trump is the best American president that the American left would ever wish for, you know, which is actually funny.

SPEAKER_02 20:10

So I mean President Luna has been uh quite openly critical of the US and of course US foreign policy. Uh this this obviously plays to his uh this obviously plays to his uh you know his base. Uh is it likely to draw in more support in the coming months?

SPEAKER_00 20:30

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SPEAKER_01 20:48

Well, uh I mean it's it's it's it's hard to say because uh I don't think that uh foreign policy issues they are going to matter much in uh a presidential election, you know, because in the end of the day, voters they are worried about more uh you know practical issues like you know uh uh how much am I going to pay you know to put gas in my car? Uh what about the prices when I go to the to the grocery store? I think this kind of stuff. I mean, this is this is uh you you have much more pressing issues, you know, like crime and corruption. Uh so I I don't think this is going to help Lula uh substantially, uh, but still I would say that on the other hand, uh Trump is I mean is becoming a sort of uh sort of deadweight, you know, you know, for the far Brazilian far right, you know, because uh association with Trump now is It's definitely not good. If you want to win an election, I mean if you are a gubernatorial candidate or you're running for Senate election, I mean it's definitely not a good strategy, you know, to associate yourself with Trump, you know, because Trump is a very, very unpopular figure here in Brazil. Well, not only here in Brazil, I think uh in many other countries here in Latin America and as elsewhere in the world. So uh I think he he became a sort of dead weight loss. Um and so uh uh and also I see a sort of contradiction, you know, and in terms of the far rights discourse, because on the one hand, they have made a very strong, uh they have actually created a very strong narrative about uh patriotism and all this idea that uh the left is not really patriotic, you know. They uh because you know you have these uh left-wing historians who mock, you know, about uh you know uh Brazil's uh flag and and uh our uh military uh feats, which are not many, to be honest. Um but then at the same time they have this sort of nationalist discourse. Uh they have adopted a position that uh you know uh for some people here in Brazil, it looks a bit of subservient, you know, in terms of you know, like as if you know Bolsonaro and some of these guys they are uh saying like, well, uh everything that is good for the United States is good for Brazil, you know, and um and I I suspect that this uh this is not gonna help you know the far right to get more votes, you know, because even right-wing voters uh I think that uh in a sense, Donald Trump he has become a deadweight for you know the Brazilian far right. Uh and the reason for this is because um uh Jair Bolsonaro and other far-right politicians, like the the governor of São Paulo, uh Tassisi de Freitas, uh they I mean they they have adopted a position that some voters may see as uh subservient to the United States. Um it's it's almost as if they're saying that uh you know everything that is good for the United States is good for Brazil, and and voters obviously know this this is not true. Uh, because actually Donald Trump he is only uh he only worries about uh promoting uh you know US interests, yeah, even if this means uh harming uh the interests of uh historical allies, you know. Um and so I I I really think that um and and the way they dealt with the uh the tariff crisis, you know, when when the US government decided to sanction Brazil by rising uh uh import tariffs, uh I think it was a disaster. I mean, in terms of media, uh the way they uh because while uh you know the Brazilian government, you know, President Lula, they were very quick and say, well, we are going to defend the national interests, we are not going to ban and accept some kind of uh external uh uh country interfering in our uh internal political affairs. You know, uh I think uh the the way uh Bolsonaro and Assisu de Freitas and other uh you know right-wing politicians, it was much more dubious. Uh and and I really think this this was not good for them. Uh and and and I would say uh that uh it's very likely that they are going to hide Trump in the campaign. I mean, uh Trump is going to become a sort of uh a non-subject, you know, something that we'd better not even mention, you know, simply because uh this is not gonna help us in any way. Uh rather, this is going to be bad, you know. This this is going to be a uh uh you know a problem for us.

SPEAKER_02 26:51

How interesting that that that should be a situation because you know uh we know that Flavio Bolsonaro, you know, a 44-year-old uh competitive candidate has spent a lot of time overseas in in recent months, uh, you know, uh becoming even closer to, let's say, right wing movements. And then you've got what seems like you know the old political class, certainly old in, you know, Lula is 80 years old. And so you sort of think that Flavio Bolsonaro would try and be more dynamic on a on a domestic uh platform. Uh so uh again, very interesting developments. And I would imagine that this recent, as we'll come back to it again, this recent package to uh uh you know to subsidize diesel for uh for for transport, to subsidize um uh liquid liquefied petroleum gas and tax exemptions on biodiesel. These are domestic things. And so so I think that Lula has uh has very much the idea that he needs to work at home and not obviously look look overseas much as Flavio Bolsonaro has done. It's it's a very interesting and and conflicting uh situation.

SPEAKER_01 28:15

Yes. Well, uh I suspect that um uh up to now uh Flavio Bolsonaro he has not faced uh any any real challenges. Uh and the main reason for this is because uh in Brazil, uh if you are uh uh you know if you are a governor or senator, you know, if if you have a uh public office uh and you want to run uh for uh president or any other uh elective post, you have to resign. You know, you have to resign uh in and there is a uh a period of time, I think it's six months before the election, something like that. So uh this the deadline to uh in Brazil we we have a very uh a very difficult word for this is desincompatibilização. I I don't even know if I can translate that, but uh basically it means that you know you have to resign, leave your office uh if you want to run. And the thing is, um uh Lula's campaign decided not to criticize publicly Flavio Bolsonaro. And the reason for this is they thought, well, if we hit Flavio very hard and he starts to, you know, in this sort of uh affects negatively uh voting intentions, uh the opposition may try to replace Flavio by another candidate. And this candidate would be uh the governor of Sao Paulo, Tasio Freitas, which uh Lula and several of his closest uh allies think would be a much more dangerous candidate. And so their strategy was okay, let's wait until April 4, because after that they won't be able to replace the candidate. And then from uh April 4 onwards, uh we are going to hit Flavio very hard, you know, and we are going to remind the public about various uh you know corruption scandals and unexplained uh stories about how Flavio, you know, he profited millions with a chocolate store, uh you know, and other very, very complicated stories that Flavio has never been able to fully explain. Uh and so it it seems to me that he uh up to now he has not had to make uh you know too much effort, you know. Uh up to now it has been very easy, you know, because in the end, well, the government is, I mean, the PT is not criticizing me, you know. They are and the reason for that is because they were just waiting, you know, because actually they want to run against Flavio. So uh and and also I suspect that uh part of the media uh has been very uh uh let's say um they they tend to be a bit sympathetic toward Flavio, especially the more conservative outlets. Uh in and and they even uh some uh journals, you know, they they they refer to to Flavio Bolsonaro, not just not as Bolsonaro, but as Flavio, you know, in sort of trying to dissociate Flavio from his father, uh in an attempt to show uh the opposition candidate as more moderate than he really is, you know. Uh which, I mean, to me, this does not make sense. I mean, how can you be moderate, you know, if uh and he he just gave an interview saying that uh if he were elected, the first thing he will do is to pardon, you know, to provide a presidential pardon to the crowd that invaded uh the Congress and the Supreme Court in the uh 8th of January 2023. You know, so he's talking about uh forgiving these people for trying to overthrow democracy. I mean, someone who promised to this, I mean he cannot be considered a moderate. Uh, but I see in part of the conservative press an attempt to act, you know, rebranding Flavio Bolsonaro and presenting him as a moderate, which he obviously is not. So I I'm saying all this just to uh uh give you an a sense of what is going on in Brazil and how uh Flavio's campaign up to now has been very easy, you know, because he has not faced any serious challenges, you know. Uh and I think the real campaign is going to start now. Um and the problem, as I see, is that uh you know, uh Flavio's past uh is is going to be a trouble for him. It's it's going to be an issue. You know, he he has a lot to explain, and I suspect he does he uh he won't be able to come up with you know plausible explanations.

SPEAKER_02 33:40

So if we if we wind this down, Andre, and we say that you know the the key the key the key items are uh for domestic policy would be crime, corruption, and the economy. But we're we're more likely to see, as you said, a war of narratives between uh Lula and Flavio Bolsonaro.

SPEAKER_01 34:02

Exactly. Yes, yes, that's uh I I would say uh this campaign is going to be about a war of narratives. Um and I would also say that uh it will be key, you know, to to to uh convince the independent moderate voters that you know this is going to be crucial for either of the main candidates.

SPEAKER_02 34:34

If you were a betting man, Andre, where would you place your money? Uh on Lula winning in October or Flavio Bolsonaro in October?

SPEAKER_01 34:46

Well, that that's a difficult question, you know, Richard. I I have to say, uh, well, as a political scientist, I I expect this to be a very tight election. Uh but that said, uh, and knowing from you know from the past that uh the incumbent government in Brazil always has a very, very substantial advantage, you know, uh, because uh uh and and I think during the campaign, you know, it's it's very important to have people on the ground, you know, to have mayors and you know local councilmen and uh you know all these uh candidates to state and federal legislators, you know, uh if you have all these people campaigning for you, then this makes a huge difference. Uh and the thing is, when when you are in the federal government, you know, when you have this uh political machine, you know, with this very large, complex political machine under your control, uh, this gives you a very, very substantial advantage. Uh and I suspect that this advantage is going to be even more crucial in this election because, as I said, we have a more polarized electorate, you know. Uh, Lula, he is not going to be able to convince, you know, to change the votes of the hardcore bolsonaristas, you know, these voters who are very fond of Bolsonaro. Uh and at the same time, you know, they like Bolsonaro very much. They hate the Walker's part, they hate Lula. Uh and so, well, he and the same is true for Flavio. I mean, Flavio, he is not going to be able to, you know, to convince the hardcore Lulistas to vote for him. You know, he has to uh mobilize the vote of more independent uh voters. And and we know that these people they decide uh in the final moments of the campaign, you know, uh and and these voters they tend to vote according to more uh uh you know pragmatic motives. They are going to look at the state of the economy, uh uh and and they may be more sensible to these uh campaign efforts you know at the ground. Uh so I in this sense I I I would say that Lula he is still uh the favorite in in this election. But uh as I said, uh even if he is the favorite, my expectation is that he's going to win by a very, very small margin. That that's what I uh what I expect. Uh but all that said, I I would probably not put my money on this.

SPEAKER_02 37:45

Anyway, well, thank you. Thank you so much for your time, uh Andre Borches, who is Associate Professor of Political Science at the Universidade de Brasilia, and also one of the editors of the recasting of the Latin American Right Polarization and Conservative Reactions. It has been a fantastic conversation with you hearing about the actual situation and challenges facing Brazil in this lead-in to the elections in October. So thank you for coming on the Latin News Podcast.

SPEAKER_01 38:21

Okay, thanks. It was great to have the opportunity to talk about uh Brazilian politics. And I do hope our uh listeners, you know, they have uh enjoyed this podcast.

SPEAKER_02 38:35

Uh undoubtedly so. Remember, please, you can subscribe to the Latin News Podcast wherever you get your podcasts, Spotify, iTunes, YouTube, and beyond. Remember and never miss another episode. We will be back in a fortnight's time discussing further issues and items of interest from the region. I've been your host, Richard McCall here in Bowwater, Columbia. Thank you again for listening. Goodbye.