Understanding Colombia's Upcoming Elections

Colombia's political landscape is gearing up for another crucial election, and with it comes a myriad of questions and debates. Why is this election significant, and how do the political parties stack up against one another? 

In this episode of The LatinNews Podcast, we delve into insights shared by Sandra Borda, an esteemed political analyst and Associate Professor of Political Science at the Department of Global Studies and Political Science at the University of Los Andes in Bogota, discussing the current state of Colombian politics and what voters should keep in mind.

Colombia's upcoming elections are pivotal yet nuanced. While they present important choices for voters regarding social and public policies, the election may not be as groundbreaking as past ones. We look at the three main candidates of Paloma Valencia and Aberlardo de La Espriella on the right and Iván Cepeda on the left.

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Transcript

SPEAKER_00 0:01

Welcome to the Latin News Podcast, a fortnightly deep dive into key developments from across Latin America and the Caribbean. Here's your host from Bogota, Colombia, journalist Richard McCall.

SPEAKER_02 0:15

This is the Latin News Podcast. I'm your host, Richard McCall, here in Bogota, Colombia. We have a very special guest here. We're talking about uh Colombia and the upcoming elections, no less than Sandra Borda, associate professor at Los Andes University in the Department of Global Studies and Political Science. She holds her PhD from political science in political science at the University of Minnesota and is a very well respected and renowned uh political commentarist here in Colombia and internationally. So it's a great honor to have you, Sandra, here on the Latin News Podcast.

SPEAKER_01 0:52

Well, thank you so much for the invitation, Brischar. It's a pleasure to be here.

SPEAKER_02 0:57

Well, I mean, where to start? I'm in Colombia. This is where I have been located for 20 years, and I get very involved in the minutiae of Colombian elections. And I think we say every four years that this election is the most important election of all time in Colombia. But this time it feels particularly significant as it represents either a possible continuity of the, you know, the project that is the Gustavo Petro presidency, or a break from this experiment of turning left to go back to the, you know, the right of the past, the kind of Uribista model. So maybe perhaps you could give us uh your overview.

SPEAKER_01 1:41

Um I think that to begin with, you know, there's a tendency uh to say that every single electoral process is, you know, the process that it's going to change everything in the country. And this is a particular thing here in Colombia. I might say, though, that that's a good strategy to bring voters, you know, to do what they are supposed to do in the middle of elections, but I don't think that this particular electoral process is that decisive in Colombia. You know, we've had in the past, for instance, an electoral process that defined either if we were gonna continue with the peace process, no, a very big and important peace process uh for the country, or if we wanna if we if we wanna stop it and we wanna restart uh a war against uh insurgent groups. That's a decisive election, right? I mean, what you're deciding there is basically what you're gonna do, what's gonna be your strategy for a civil conflict. This is not what we're deciding now. Uh what's been happening in Colombia probably, I think that for the last, well, I would say that you know, for the last administration, is that since we end up uh a very important part of our civil conflict, now the left, the political left, has more space to do electoral politics. And and that's the reason why we have the Petro administration that is finishing right now, is the first leftist government that we have in Colombia, uh, precisely because we were able to negotiate peace with the most important insurgent group, the FARC, and that opened up the space for the left to start doing um you know electoral politics in a more uh open, in a more um you know, easy way for them. So we have our first leftist government, and now the political spectrum in Colombia is way bigger, wider. So we have your traditional leftist uh coalition of parties, and you have your right-wing coalition of parties, and you have your political center. Now this is looking like a more, I would say, regular, you know, uh a more normal sort of political spectrum, closer to what you find in other places in Latin America. So I think that we're deciding important things in terms of social policy, in terms of security, in terms of many um public issues, but I don't think that this is going to be that groundbreaking as it was in the past.

SPEAKER_02 4:16

It's nice to hear that. It's nice to break from the sort of the hubris of saying, oh, this is a dangerous election. As you say, this is some maybe to get people out there as part of the campaign, uh say a campaign plan to do so. Uh you host uh or you you come onto a podcast, I know where you where you discuss on the Canadian Council for the Americas the competing for the political center. I think a good place to bring that up right now, because you know there is a center in in Colombia, um, of course, in the in the form of at the moment of Sergio Fajardo and his his party. How can we expect because I mean he did reasonably well last time around, but it doesn't feel like the center is doing. Can they be let's let's get my question out here can the center be pivotal in in uh uh in any final decision here in the elections? Because, you know, we we've got left versus right. Where does the center fit in as a kingmaker, I think?

SPEAKER_01 5:19

I think that you have a global trend, which is basically that the political center is not doing well anywhere. This is this is uh a global scenario in which you have polarization being the most important political trend all over the place. So it's very difficult to construct a sort of uh moderate, uh uh a little bit less extreme version of politics because it's not attractive to voters anymore, right? It's we're I mean, the people have talked and written a lot about this phenomenon. Uh, people are drawn by you know emotions, feelings, they don't want to hear the rational side of politics anymore. And this is the rational side of politics, is precisely what the political center does. But there's a whole bunch of you know theories about what's going on. I don't want to get into that. Point is that it's happening in Colombia, you know, as it is happening in the rest of the world. But I think that you need to add to that a very particular uh local feature of that phenomenon, which is basically that we've had the same uh the same politician running for the political center in three or four different electoral processes, right? So so there's a sort of fatigue with with Sergio, with Sergio Fajardo, uh, because people feel that he's been running in every single political campaign and he hasn't changed his strategies, he hasn't changed discourse. And um I think that at some point people are starting to feel that this political center is feeling a bit arrogant, right? Like they they are above the extremes, uh, they are above the emotions, they are the rational, you know, uh sort of alternative that we have available right now. Um and people want a different thing. You know, they are not connecting with that sort of discourse. The other political alternative is Claudia Lopez, she was the mayor uh of Bogotá. She's more, I would define her as political, uh, as center left in terms of ideology. Um, but but she's not doing well either. Both of them are very, very low in the polls so far. Uh they Claudia went uh to a first primary election in which she didn't do that well. Um so we'll see what's gonna happen in May with the first round of uh presidential elections, but I think that the political center in terms of polls so far is not doing that well. And uh, and I think that the right particularly has developed a strategy that has been so far a bit successful in terms of absorbing part of that uh political center, and that's bad news for them too.

SPEAKER_02 8:08

I think I think that's the fascinating move here, and if we we segue into uh the right, so the centro democratico, the democratic center, which is a right-wing Uribista, so named after the you know uh former president Álvaro Uribe Veles, uh um Uri Vista Party being led by Paloma Valencia, obviously a you know a career politician, really, and she has picked up what we would say technically, as her vice presidential nominee, is someone from more or less the center in Juan Daniel Oviedo. So you see this as being a uh a major play for the center.

SPEAKER_01 8:47

Yeah, it is it it is an interesting uh sort of process because the the partido, the Centro Democratico, the Uribista Partido, uh went for from being one of the most important and one of the most dominant political forces in Colombia to this election being in a scenario in which they have to go through a political coalition in order to survive, right? So they are not running by themselves, they are together with many other candidates that represented the center, more opinion candidates, not coming from traditional parties. Uh so they formed this coalition, they went to a primary election. And in this primary election, we had a very interesting surprise, which was basically that they had a lot of votes. It was that from all the three primaries that went to the election in the same day, they were the ones that did better than the rest of the uh of the candidates. And the second surprise was that Juan Daniel Oviedo, the candidate that you're mentioning, that Juan Daniel Oviedo is your classic, um, you know, your classic, how do you call this in English? Your uh the person, you know, the the economist, the technocrat, right? I mean, this is that this is the person who has been in charge of the statistics agency, state agency in Colombia, the DANE. It's an economist, he's uh he's he's been a professor, you know, it's it's a person very centered in in um you know knowledge, in uh in being rigorous, and uh and it's also, and I think that this is important to mention, he's also openly gay, and he talks about these issues too. So it's a very interesting thing for Colombian politics, being Colombian politics tremendously conservative, and you know this, uh, that the right has the woman with the most chances to be president and the vice president formula openly gay. No, this is not the progressive left, this is the right. So I think that they are gonna be able to absorb through the figure of Juan Daniel Oviedo and through this very particular formula, the the they are gonna be able to absorb an important part of the center vote. And I think that this has weakened a lot uh the the political campaign of Sergio Fajardo and Claudia Lopez, because Juan Daniel Oviedo is a very charismatic figure. He's been he's really good in social um uh in social platforms, really, really good. He's he's catchy, he's as I said, charismatic, he's very good with young people. Uh, I would say that he's uh you know a center version of Mandani, uh if that you know is is is possible to do that analogy. So he's doing really well and he's new, right? Which is very important for politics right now in Colombia. And and if you compare this to, as I said, the the center, the political center candidates that have been that are almost mainstream at this point of the story, I think that he's gonna be able to take many of those votes. And that, of course, is a good uh thing for the right. Now, many people say, well, you know, this is this is kind of difficult because we're talking about Urivismo, we're talking about uh, you know, the the ex-president Alvaro Uribe being you know the person behind this campaign. So you might say that this is a little bit centered, but the person in charge is gonna be Paloma Valencia, and she is uh a pure blood, you know, uh Uriasta. So so this is still a right wing formula, and uh, and some of the center, the uh the more independent voters uh still are very skeptical about what how independent they are gonna be able to work, how independently they are gonna be able to work uh vis-a-vis Uribe and and his political party.

SPEAKER_02 12:42

Well, you see, Uribe, I mean, he's an elderly man, uh but he's so but let's be in let's be entirely honest, uh but but he he's an elderly gentleman, but he's also but he's so he's so pivotal to the and so imperative to this party. And as you said, I mean the contradictions between you know having a woman and an openly uh gay vice presidential candidate, it just does create uh for conflict on uh let's say some some uh sides of the right. And is this is this where there could be you know flight in votes from Paloma Valencia towards uh the other right-wing candidate, Abelardo de la Esprea? Do you see that happening?

SPEAKER_01 13:26

Yeah, this is uh that's a very interesting thing. First, about the Uribe issue, I would start by saying that in Colombia there's a tradition of former presidents not being able to retire from politics, right? I mean this is this is unbelievable. They never retired. I mean, they are active, they participate in every election, even those that promised to death that they were never gonna be able, uh or they would never be willing to participate in politics after they retire, they are still in the middle of the race. So this is a very particular feature of our of our political conversation that I don't appreciate because it doesn't allow you know generational change and it doesn't allow the conversation being freed of you know the the old politics, the more traditional politics. Uh, but about the the uh Abelardo de la Esprella candidate, I have to say something about that because it it's it's a very interesting question. This is this is we're having right now, I think that it's possible to say that we have two candidates from the right right now. One of them is Paloma Valencia and his formula, Juan Daniel Oviedo, which is the more mainstream uh classic political party uh version of the right. And then you have Abelardo de las Priega, which is a complete outsider. Uh uh Abelardo de las Prieya is a is a it's it's it's a former criminal lawyer with a very you know murky and difficult past because he's been the defender uh of you know very difficult figures in in Colombia, criminals. And of course, somebody might say, well, that's what criminal lawyers do. That's right, you know. But but you know, there's a whole bunch of speculation and things about how he made his fortune and if it has, if it is because it's a very wealthy man, and if it's that related to his um, you know, job as a as a criminal lawyer. And then the other thing is that he has never been part of a political party. And you know that when in in Latin America and in the world, being part of a political party is not good news for the voter. Everybody's hating. You see it, you see it in the polls. It's very, very strong in Latin America. People don't like political parties. So the first strategy that you have in hand when you are running for the presidency is basically to say, I have nothing to do with political parties. And it works, you know, because because they have uh a really people have a very low perception of uh of political parties as institutional um, you know, devices. So that's one thing. He's he's close to Alvaro Uribe, he's close to the right, uh, he has a very right agenda, but I think that the main difference between him and between Paloma Valencia is that Paloma Valencia is a right-wing person, but she's also an institutional person. So I'm gonna give you an example. People ask her, well, you know, you're against abortion, you're against uh gay uh marriage and the right to have kids, uh, which is a very different position from Juan Daniel Oviedo, right? Uh so what do you have to say about that? And she always replies the same thing. She says, yes, I don't agree with with those, you know, positions. I'm not in favor of abortion, I'm not in favor of gay marriage, but the constitutional court in Colombia has already decided that women have the right, you know, for uh the right to interrupt their pregnancies, and it has also decided that uh, you know, gay people can get married. So this is the institutional decision. So I might disagree with that, but I respect the institutional decision. Abelardo de las Prieya is not like that. Abelardo de las Prieya wants to end international organizations, wants to end the Congress, uh, wants to implement a sort of security policy very, very similar to what you see in Bukele, in Bukele's administration in El Salvador. He even, you know, tried to tries to look like Bukele. If you see a picture of the guy, he looks like Bukele and he works on looking more and more similar to Bukele. So this is a person that doesn't care about institutions and doesn't respect institutions. So that's the main difference. And this is something that I think that people are starting to appreciate more and more. And he's he's basically reducing his level of approval in polls uh recently, and I think that it's precisely because you know, Colombian voters might go for populist uh, you know, approaches to things, but they also have a limit. Uh, and I think that he has crossed the limit in trying to be just way too similar to Ukele and to inscribe himself into the whole MAGA thing in the US, too.

SPEAKER_02 18:21

I kind of feel that he he maxed out already. Um he had very favorable wins because of course there was so much time before the uh primary on the right. So he had very favorable rip wins being the sort of the I would say the formal candidate up until a point. But of course, that now that's gone out. And and as you say, you talk about this image control. Oh, go on.

SPEAKER_01 18:45

No, I I was just gonna say uh that add to what you just said the fact that Colombia's El Salvador suffers from a very endemic security problem, right? So so we're a fertile ground for this type of populism because people are very sick of the security problems that we're suffering from. Uh the thing is that the Centro Democratico Uribe's Party and Paloma Valencia have a very strong proposal in terms of security because they have done it in the past. Uh, you know, during the Uribe administration, this country went from being half of the territory dominated by the FARC and insurgency group to alter completely that equilibrium and making the state stronger and more present in the territory. With problems, of course, but they achieved that. So they have very strong credentials in terms of security. So, you know, fighting against them as an outsider with a security proposal is not easy.

SPEAKER_02 19:43

Yeah, obviously they they hold the calling card on that one. Um I mean, Abelardo de las Playas uh his his his positive side for people was of course that he was a he is an outsider, as you say. He didn't belong to a formal party. And then that allows people to kind of ignore, I say, as an outsider, some of his more your word, murky past and murky business dealings. But I think, you know, I yes, his polling is is in the is is in decline, even with uh, you know, a very formal and and credible and known vice presidential uh candidate pick, uh the José Manuel Restrepo. Perhaps you could just tell, you know, he picked someone who is his recognized and respected in in his circles.

SPEAKER_01 20:32

Another technocrat.

unknown 20:34

Yes. Yeah.

SPEAKER_01 20:35

This is this is uh José Manuel Restrepo comes from being the minister of commerce during the Duque administration. The Duque administration uh it was another uh Centro Democratico Uribe administration. This is this is our sort of uh political compass in Colombia. Um and he's known, you know, he was he was the vice dean and uh well, the vice president and then the president of one of the most important universities here in Bogota, uh private universities, a university with a very uh good reputation. So I think that what Avilardo de Las Prieda was trying to do was basically to whitewash a little bit, you know, his his outsider uh uh sort of proposal, bringing someone with experience, uh, you know, managing the state, knowing the state from the inside, because because Avilardo Las Predas hasn't worked for the state ever. He's not been in public service. So this is a good uh a good strategy. The thing is that you know, if you compare Oviedo with Josemanuel Restrepo, they are both technocrats, but Oviedo is a great politician. José Manuel Restrepo is not, right? I mean, Josemanuel Restrepo is a is a very you know calm, down to earth sort of academic guy. And we academics are not very good at politics. So I know about that. So so so you know and uh But I think that that Restrepo is a person that is going to bring some cool air to the to the Las Priella campaign. Although I think that the his capacity to bring new voters to to the campaign has has you know it's limited. It's not that important because part of the problem with these sort of profiles in politics is that the you know people who know them know that they are really good, that they have a lot of knowledge and experience, but not many people know them in Colombia. You know, a minister of of of commerce, of international commerce is not actually a very you know salient figure in Colombian politics. So my guess, my guess, now that's what the polls say, is that many people in Colombia don't know who he is.

SPEAKER_02 22:54

And also if you were to know who he who he is, he's also you know saddled with the baggage of the Duque administration. Uh you know, he was Minister of Commerce during well, I guess, 2019 and 2021, when we had, you know, nationwide strikes and protests, uh sparked by a lot of desires around tax reform, uh amongst many other things.

SPEAKER_01 23:16

But tax reform was and I think that if the aspiration was to bring through the Duque administration a person who would bring a bit of the Urivismo into the campaign, that's not gonna work because Duque was never, you know, a person with uh with a good relationship with the Uribismo and the Centro Democratico, right? I mean he was a member of this party, he was elected, you know, with this party, but but uh but he didn't have the sort of relationship with the Uribe that Paloma Valencia has. So so he wasn't he wasn't a strong figure within the party, and if the party has to decide if they go, you know, with the Uribe guy or if they go with Paloma Valencia, I think that the decision for them is very easy.

SPEAKER_02 24:01

Yeah. Well, it it's a good moment then to we you know we've discussed the right wing and we'll come back to them because there's plenty to talk about. But uh of course we have to talk about the continuity candidate, the pacto histórico, Ivan uh Cepeda on the left. Of course, you know, uh very much uh a very popular figure who will. I mean, the left is an interesting figure, of course, because for so uh for so long the left was tarred by you know what had happened and what has happened in Colombia with the guerrilla conflict, the ELN, the guerrillas, and so on. And Ivan Cepeda himself is a very uh fascinating figure, you know, an orphan of the conflict. His father was a union patriotica and assassinated, so a left-wing uh group, and now he's he's you know he will get we know that the left will always get 33 percent, and he's doing well in the polls, but he hasn't grown uh as as to be perhaps expected. You could talk about Ivan.

SPEAKER_01 25:03

Yes, um Ivan Zebela is a person that comes from the very core of Colombian left, you know, he's he's been a militant his whole life, he's been in Congress representing this this left uh you know forever. He's a very well-known uh congressman. He's a political enemy, but almost a personal enemy to of Albar Uribe, right? This is his nemesis. He's the guy who started a whole judicial process against Uribe. They got he was the one who was about to put Uribe in jail, right? So so this is a figure that that the right hates in this country. Uh, you know, I would say that even more than Petro. So so he's he's he's a very interesting figure because at the very beginning of the whole uh the presidential race, many people say, well, you know, we don't think within the left, including the president, said, well, maybe this is not the best candidate, right? Because we might need something, uh, you know, someone a little bit more pragmatic, someone able to bring some of the centered uh voters, you know, on board, uh, maybe with uh with a more pragmatic, with more capability to negotiate, uh, something like that. And uh once the whole race started, he became stronger and stronger. And he went to a primary and he got a lot of votes, almost two million votes. Uh, so so that was that was it. That was the end of the conversation within the left. Everybody, uh some might like it, some might not, but they decided that this is the candidate that they are gonna run. He had some, you know, people within the left, Roy Barreras, a professional politician that has been part of the right, the center, and the left, all at the same, you know, during the same.

SPEAKER_02 27:00

President of the the United Kingdom.

SPEAKER_01 27:03

Yeah, exactly. Um, so so he was he was trying to get into the race and finally couldn't do it. Many people tried to compete with Ivan Cepeda and they couldn't do it. One of the reasons why some people in the left don't like the idea of him being the candidate is because, you know, part of what's happening, uh of what's happened during the Petro administration is that Petro has decided to co-govern with some members of traditional parties, with some, I would call them professional politicians. Roy Barreras is one example. Armando Benedetti, his right hand, is another example. You have figures that are very polemic because they have been part of corruption scandals. Uh, people don't appreciate the way they do politics because they do clientelism, they do, you know, it's a very traditional way to do politics, and people in the left think that they don't represent what the left uh actually is about, right? Change, a different way of doing politics, being clean, transparent, no corruption, etc., etc., making a big difference, you know, vis-a-vis the traditional political parties in Colombia. Uh so the fact that Petro has decided to bring these people on board and govern with them and make them part of the movement, people like Cepeda and the people who surround Cepeda don't like it that much. So my guess is that a government with Cepeda would be a government that's way less pragmatic and way less willing to negotiate with traditional politicians. Um and I think that the other the other feature is that you know it I would say that it's the way of doing politics. Uh Petro is a person who likes to do politics with him at the center. He has to be the owner of the conversation. Uh, that's the reason why he uses social uh platforms so much, because he needs to be talking, he needs to be setting the agenda. It's all about him. He doesn't know the idea of governing with a team of people. He's all by himself and blaming everyone for the for the failures, you know. Very, very personalistic, you know, style of doing politics. Ivan Cepeda is not like that. I don't think that we're gonna see Ivan Cepeda doing uh social platforms the same way Petro does. I don't think that we're gonna see Ivan Cepeda talking so much as Petro does, right? So so I think that the styles are very different. Um, and I think that in in terms of issues, there's there's a you know, people people seem to be very unsatisfied with the fact that Cepeda is not very strong when it's about condemning uh, you know, criminal activities but organized crime in Colombia. Uh, you know, the the Petro government has advanced this program of uh total peace, which is basically, you know, uh a widespread negotiation with insurgent groups and criminal organizations. Um, it's been kind of hectic, it hasn't worked that well. Um, but Cepeda is is very hesitant to talk about what the Petro administration has done. He he he has decided that he wants, doesn't want to have any opinion about that, and he has decided to talk about his own proposals, but it's very difficult to walk that line, right? Because he he says, for example, I have a big proposal about corruption. And you know, the first reaction is, okay, let's talk about corruption during the Petro administration. You know, we have a we have a lot to talk about corruption during that administration. So if you're gonna be continuity, well, tell us about that. What do you think about the corruption that happened during the Petro administration? And he hasn't, he doesn't want to talk about it. So I think that he's gonna pay a price for not being able to have an opinion or to have a declaration about what the Petro administration is doing. He doesn't want to separate from the Petro administration, but he doesn't want to talk about the Petro administration either. So walking that very thin line is gonna be difficult. He has said that he doesn't want to participate in public debates, which is a problem, you know, that a big problem. Because I think that, you know, we're gonna have the first round of elections at the end of May. And I'm pretty sure that if things keep going the way they have been going so far, we're not gonna have a public debate between candidates, uh, which is just amazing. You know, how are people supposed to decide uh who are they gonna vote for if they don't know the platforms and they don't they they are not able to contrast, you know, the different proposals that they they that they bring to the table.

SPEAKER_00 31:40

This podcast is brought to you by Latin News, the leading source of political and economic news and analysis on Latin America and the Caribbean since 1967. Access Latin News' full portfolio of reports at www.latinnews.com This has been you know something that I've been and we all are obviously been watching with such interest.

SPEAKER_02 32:04

Again, the lack of debates and the lack of actual we I mean we take for granted we know that Paloma Valencia will be you know strong on law and order, uh on illegal groups, and Abelardo de la Estrella, presumably so in the Bukele model, uh, you know, mega prisons and so on. Um and Ivan Serpera, we would assume, you know, socially minded, but actual genuine policy is is very far from the debate right now. It seems more about personalities and the past. This is the petro candidate and this is the Uri Vista candidate. This is not good for as you say, for democracy and for for voters. And I think when you talk about Ivan Sepela walking this very fine line, not criticizing his his predecessor if he if he's elected, and and not really pushing the envelope, it hasn't allowed him to build on, you know, he he's he's he's increased his percentage uh in the polls, but not massively, not in the same circumstances as others. So I mean, do we feel that unless Ivan Cepeda makes a stand and and do we feel that his campaign is stagnated?

SPEAKER_01 33:24

I think that that might be true, but but not only for him, right? I I think that there are two problems here. The the first one is that you know the whole electoral conversation right now is being dominated by the president.

SPEAKER_02 33:44

Yes, right?

SPEAKER_01 33:45

He's the one saying what topics we're supposed to talk about. He is the one uh basically defending his candidate doing politics, even though that's that's uh forbidden in the in in Colombia by constitution, but he's being part of the whole electoral process. And then you have the other candidates from the center and the right, all they do every day, 24-7, is just basically reacting to what Petro says, right? So so this is a very interesting sort of scenario because it's very difficult to bring up a concrete proposal to the table and to open a national conversation about that proposal when you have the president doing that, right? I mean, you have no space in the in the public debate to bring proposals. So uh because people don't want to hear about it, and also because Petro is dominating the conversation. And what Petro does is way more interesting for people than you know, listening to some technical proposal about how to solve the security situation in the country or how to solve the crisis of the of the health uh public sector. You know, it's it's way more interesting what he's doing because he's just igniting the debate and he's starting to, you know, very difficult issues to put on the table and being super aggressive and insulting everyone. And that, of course, uh, you know, brings more people to the debate than than being technical. I think that that's one problem. The other problem is that, and I think that this is not particular to the to the political process in Colombia that happens everywhere. Uh people have discovered that these programs and these proposals, you know, one, people don't read that before they vote, right? Two, people don't pay attention, you know, at the end of the mandate, if you comply or not with your proposals, right? I mean, if you go back, I'm writing a book about Petro's foreign policy, right? And I go back to his proposal and his, you know, his speeches during the campaign and everything. He not only didn't comply with anything that he proposed, but he has done in many fields exactly the opposite to what he proposed, right? But that's not part of the political debate. That's people don't do that. They don't go back and review and do an analysis. They did this, they don't do this, if this is the percentage of things that they did. They don't do that. So I think that political candidates and their campaigns have discovered that you know, paying that much attention to proposals is basically a waste of time when the public conversation is a conversation about a whole different thing. You know, it's a conversation in Colombia because we have this left and right sort of spectrum so, so, so uh polarized at this point. All we're talking about is, you know, social class issues. You know, this is very, very important. Are you privileged or you're not privileged? Uh what you're saying is the result that you, you know, of the fact that you're privileged or that you're not. Uh many post-material stuff, you know, feminism, race, uh, you know, a whole bunch of very interesting debates, but debates that are not translated as you said, in in public policy proposals. So I think that that's gonna be a problem. Um, because because I I think that, you know, whomever wins is not gonna be, you know, has two problems. The fact that they don't have the picture, you know, very well constructed to know how they are gonna move in the four uh in the next four years, but also they are gonna deal with a Congress that it's gonna be very difficult. Because in the past, um, you know, in Colombia, it was very normal that the Congress was always on the side of the president. You know, it was the same political class. Uh, you know, there was a whole transactional approach to the whole thing. And presidents, every time that presidents wanted to do something, they always had the political class in Congress on their side. That's not the case with Petro anymore. And I'm pretty sure it's not gonna be the case with whomever wins the next election.

SPEAKER_02 38:03

Yeah, and this is that's an incredibly important point there from the legislative elections to see how that uh how Congress and the Senate uh obviously panned out. I wanted, before we moved on, and we mustn't overlook is the vice presidential uh nominee for uh Ivan Cepeda, Aida Kilque, Quilque, uh a very very practiced politician, but again, not someone who brings more votes for the table. I mean, she's she's from from but uh but a direct target, if if not at at Paloma Valencia and and history, perhaps you can talk about that.

SPEAKER_01 38:38

Yeah, um Paloma Valencia and Aida Quilque come from the very same department in Colombia, El Cauca, uh, but they come from completely different backgrounds. Paloma Valencia is the granddaughter of a former president in Colombia, uh, the grand-granddaughter of a former president in Colombia. She's part of the, you know, the dominant class in Cauca. In that department, you have a very strong racial division. You have an elite, a white elite, no, and and you also have a very big and important indigenous community, very organized nowadays, and there's a tension, there's a social and political tension, uh, you know, at your classic uh neocolonial or post-colonial sort of tension. Um, and that in of course Paloma Valencia in the past had made very strong proposals about how to manage land and about how to manage the relationship with uh with the indigenous communities. Uh, she has a very strong stance uh, you know, that I would qualify as against those communities in the past. Uh, she's been trying to reconstruct that that sort of approach in the recent election, saying that she respects a lot Ayuda Kilque. Ayuda Kilque, of course, is is one of the leaders and the members of this indigenous community in the Caucasus. So the logic behind uh picking her for the vice presidential formula of the left is a very interesting logic. Um But Paloma has decided to say, well, you know, this is a person that I've interacted with. She's a person that she's a member of an indigenous community. I appreciate and I admire the sort of job that she does. So she's trying to, you know, twist a little bit the past in order to have a different sort of conversation with her. And you're right that Ayuda Kilwe doesn't have, um doesn't bring new votes to the left. But I think that the sort of formula that they are trying to use this time is very similar to the one that Petro used reluctantly because he wasn't convinced about this either, uh, which was basically to pick a vice presidential formula, uh, Francia Marquez, that represented uh African American uh Afro-Colombian communities uh here. And uh she's she's been part of you know civil society organizations for a long, long time working on environmental issues and human rights issues. So um in in in the you know, middle classes in Colombia that didn't like that much Petro uh definitely like Francia Marquez, right? So so she brought many uh middle class, intellectual, uh, you know, that type of vote to the table, and that was useful for Petro. Uh, unfortunately, she basically occupied a very marginal role uh during the Petro administration. She was constantly, you know, in tension with the president, and uh and basically the government didn't allow her to do all the things and to advance all the plans for her community that she wasn't planning, she was planning to advance. So, you know, hopefully it's not gonna happen the same thing with Aida Kilque. But but I think that the the message is the same one, which is basically we need to bring to the political table and to the state uh sectors in Colombia that haven't been part of power and haven't been power of the bureaucracy, uh part of the bureaucracy in the past. And and I do think that this is this is this is a very you know compelling objective. And you know, I I really appreciate that we have that our political spectrum is is way more diverse than it was in the past.

SPEAKER_02 42:23

So to bring Los Nadies, as Francia Marquez said, the nobody's the unrepresented people of I mean it is a fascinating battle uh that is taking place, of course, and perhaps using that word, but uh in these elections. And I think we we should mention that now we are 10 years on from the peace accords in 2016. So this is the first elections where the FARC or the former FARC, the Comunes, or the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia, don't get the mandatory seats again as drawn up in the um in the peace accords in 2016. Their political participation has basically well is zero, isn't it? I mean they don't have any, did they get any seats at all? No.

SPEAKER_01 43:04

No, they are they're going to disappear as uh as a political party, and which is you know that that's part of the game. Uh so so if you say we want the political uh you know, but you we want political the political spectrum in Colombia to open up and and you know make space for everyone, and you sign up a peace process with an insurgency group, and you tell them, well, you know, we're gonna give you the chance to to become uh uh a political party and to you know be part of this whole uh process, um, but they don't do well. Uh it it is what it is. You know, that basically means that Colombian society was never in favor of the political proposals and the political platform that they that they brought to the table. Uh so they cannot complain that they didn't have space to participate. They did have space. They had a very privileged space because they didn't have to go to go to elections. They had those seats in Congress for them as a result of the peace process. And, you know, they were part of the presidential coalition. They were part of this leftist coalition that supported Petro. But none of those things was enough for them to consolidate as a political force. And as a result of that, they are going to disappear. Now, we do have a problem, which is basically that, you know, they are not going to have political representation, but simultaneously, we have had two governments that have refused, and I'm talking about the Petro administration and the Duke administration, to implement the peace process. And that's putting at risk former members of the FARC that are not politicians, but you know, people that basically left the arms and are willing to be part of the productive force and want to work and have a normal life. And they are at risk because since the state hasn't been able to implement the peace process that they were supposed to do, um, they don't have protection and they are being threatened by different, you know, uh criminal organizations and insurgent groups that were enemies uh in the past. So that together with not having political representation is going to be an issue that the next government is gonna have to solve.

SPEAKER_02 45:29

Uh it's a good place to to wind this down, Sandra. If you were to, I asked this of many people, of course, I've asked this in the Brazilian elections, the Peruvian elections, uh Ecuadorian elections that we we passed a couple of years ago, but uh if you were to place a bet, uh if you were a gambling academic, uh, who would you bet on being the next president of Colombia?

SPEAKER_01 45:58

I think that you know, if this if the behavior that we've seen of these political forces in the polls were closer to what we saw four years ago or even eight years ago, I would dare to bet. Uh, but the problem is that we're having very mixed results in the polls. We have some polls that say, um, you know, especially the issues with the second round, right? Because in the first round, more or less every single poll is saying the same thing. You have first uh Ivan Cepeda, uh, he's not gonna be able to make it in the first round, apparently, even though they say that they will, but they always say that. But uh, but but I don't think that he's gonna make it in the first round. Then you have, depending on the poll, Paloma Valencia or Abelardo de las Prieya. So so it's gonna be between those three. Uh what the polls basically say is that the issue is with the second round, because clearly, in the second round, Abelardo de las Priega is not gonna be able to beat um Iván Cepeda. But Paloma Valencia is in a in a close tie uh at this point. So so that sort of scenario makes me think that probably we're gonna have a first round with Ivan Cepeda and Paloma Valencia, because I think that Avelardo de La Spreya has stagnated so far. Um, but the second round, uh I'm not quite sure what's gonna happen. And I have to say, though, that this is a key issue because the president has been threatening uh with the idea that he knows that we're gonna have fraud, that the institutions, the the the electoral institutions is not are gonna are not gonna work that well. This is a very similar thing to what Trump does, right? If I win, it's because the institutions worked. If I lose, it's because we had a fraud, right? Uh so this is a very dangerous thing because I think that they they are preparing to say, if they don't win, that the elections are not legitimate. So I really hope that the difference whomever wins is very big.

SPEAKER_02 48:06

It's significant. I I I wonder how uh Petro, President Petro, might react to you having likened him to Trump there. Um, but I'd I'd I'd love to see the letters are huge, man.

SPEAKER_01 48:19

That's not my fault.

SPEAKER_02 48:21

Yeah, that that um that uh that war of words over Twitter at 3 a.m. uh in the morning would be a great one to watch. Uh it will be a relief to have a president in power who does not govern by Twitter and debate by Twitter because it's it's that situation of waking up every morning and going, oh good lord, what now?

SPEAKER_01 48:45

That not to mention the institutional damage of governing that way. So yeah, it would be a relief. I agree.

SPEAKER_02 48:53

So you mentioned, and this is the final point, you mentioned you're writing a book on Petro's foreign policy. When can we expect to see that in the in the shops?

SPEAKER_01 49:02

My plan is the second week of August. I don't want to leave anything out. So it's it's it's very advanced. Uh, and basically what I'm doing is try to keep up with with many things. You have to understand that for the first time, uh, foreign policy analysts have to deal with a whole bunch of tweets that we never had to deal with in the past. So that makes uh the work way more complex. But but the plan is to have it ready right for the when the administration is over.

SPEAKER_02 49:32

Wow. So it's almost like a day-to-day update, uh almost like a journal of Petros. Well, I'll be looking for that in the shops definitely, and and and hope to come to a launch uh when when it's out. Uh and is there a working title?

SPEAKER_01 49:47

Uh not yet. Not yet. All right, we'll just we'll just keep it. I had a lot of suggestions. If you have one, please let us know.

SPEAKER_02 49:54

Sure, sure. I'll think up something. Well, let me uh take this moment to say thank you so much to Sandra Borda, associate professor at the Universidad de los Andes, Los Andes University, at the Department of Global Studies and Political Science, very well respected commentarist on the political spectrum here internationally and in Colombia. It has been an absolute pleasure discussing this with you. And uh I will be looking forward to your updates and and your commentary in the coming weeks as we close in on the elections.

SPEAKER_01 50:24

Now, thank you so much, Richard, for for a great time and uh in a very nice conversation. Thank you.

SPEAKER_02 50:29

Thank you. This is I've been Richard McCall here for the Latin News Podcast. Remember, you can subscribe on all the platforms YouTube, Spotify, iTunes, and beyond, and never miss a fortnightly episode of uh issues about the region. So we'll be back in a two weeks' time discussing further uh items on politics from Latin America. Thank you again for listening. It's been a great show. Goodbye.

SPEAKER_00 50:55

You've been listening to the Latin News Podcast. For more news and analysis on Latin America and the Caribbean, visit www.latinnews.com.