Diamond Mind
Science, philosophy, spirituality, technology, green energy, current affairs. Hosted by scholar, activist and author, Tam Hunt.
Diamond Mind
Diamond Mind #8: Driving on Sunshine: A Discussion of President Trump's Impact on the rEVolution
What if you could drive a vehicle that costs less to operate, requires minimal maintenance, and dramatically reduces your environmental impact? The electric vehicle revolution isn't just coming—it's already here, outpacing even the most optimistic predictions.
Our experts, Noel Morin and Michael Chiacos, dives deep into the remarkable efficiency of electric vehicles—revealing how they operate at 3-4 times the efficiency of conventional gas cars while eliminating routine maintenance headaches like oil changes and spark plug replacements. For many owners, especially those with home solar systems, the joy of "driving on sunshine" creates both environmental benefits and surprising financial advantages.
We explore the rapidly evolving global EV landscape, where sales jumped 26% in 2023 alone, putting over 40 million electric vehicles on roads worldwide. From Norway's astonishing 95% EV adoption rate for new vehicles to the explosion of electric two-wheelers in Asian markets, the electrification of transportation is accelerating across vehicle types and geographies.
We also discuss "Tesla guilt" arising from owning Teslas and Tam shares his philosophy of "love the car, pity the man..."
The conversation tackles common concerns head-on: Are EVs truly affordable? What about charging on road trips? How is the charging infrastructure developing? Our experts provide real-world insights from their combined decades of experience in the electric vehicle ecosystem—from policy development to personal ownership of multiple EV models.
While policy headwinds from the new White House create uncertainty around tax credits and emissions standards, the panel explains why the transition to electric transportation maintains powerful momentum. With battery prices continuing to fall, charging networks expanding, and manufacturers increasing domestic production, electric vehicles are positioned to overcome these challenges.
Ready to understand why your next vehicle should probably be electric? Listen now and discover how this technology could transform your driving experience while helping create a cleaner, more sustainable transportation future.
Cool, let's start guys. Let's go ahead and do a little intro. Noel, could you tell us who you are and what you're about?
Speaker 2:Yeah, noel Morin, based here in Hilo. My career is e-commerce I was with eBay and Jay for between the two of them 30 years before relocating here and I've been involved in clean energy, clean transportation since 2011. I'm currently on the board of nonprofits focused on clean transportation and clean energy, stem education and community resilience, and about a couple of years back, I decided to take on to start working again. Start working with a company called Sustainability Partners and we provide infrastructure funding for infrastructure for durable entities municipalities, hospitals, universities, durable entities. Yep, glad to be a part of this conversation. Certainly a lot to talk about in this space?
Speaker 1:Definitely, yeah, yeah, and thanks for joining us and been an honor to work with you with the Hawaii EV Association and Think Big local nonprofit we're both part of. Also, michael, go ahead.
Speaker 3:Yeah, I've known Tam almost 20 years and been working on clean energy and climate. Tam actually was the energy program director at a clean energy and climate nonprofit in Santa Barbara, California, and he hired me back in 2006, worked together for a few years and I became an energy program director and policy director.
Speaker 3:And, yeah, we have been following and helping the EV and the next generation vehicle market, which is what we call it back in 2008, before the EVs were even there, for over 15 years now and I did a whole host of started a electric vehicle readiness group on the central coast of California working to promote electric vehicles and policy get EV chargers put in place. We did big green car shows with 30,000 people that would attend and big ride and drives. So I've been working in all facets of the EV ecosystem, but primarily around electric vehicle education and adoption, working with consumers, but also with EV charging companies, getting chargers in the ground and then also on the policy side, both at the state level and the more local regional level.
Speaker 1:And you're having me in Bali right now.
Speaker 3:Yeah, so I actually left my full-time work last year and moved the family to Bali for a year. It's interesting, with the EVI out here, seeing all the Chinese brands starting to come into developing markets like Indonesia. We could probably get to that a little later in the conversation, but Wuling BYD they're starting to make a bigger impact in emerging markets, yeah no, it's been really cool to work with you for, like I said, almost 20 years.
Speaker 1:It's amazing how time flies and really cool also just a quick note on technology that we can have this conversation with you in Bali, me in Hawaii, on Hawaii also, but we could also have people in California all in real time with no glitches or latency Quite remarkable, cool. Let's dive in, and I do want to give a little brief roadmap. We're going to talk about what EVs are available, what the sales figures are in Hawaii and California, what the EV charging market looks like. Can you charge a vehicle easily if you don't have charging at home? We're going to get into, toward the end, a bit on new policies being pushed or already implemented by the new administration Definitely not an EV friendly administration in most ways. We'll get into the details there. So let me start by asking you and just either one of you just go ahead and chime in as appropriate what makes EVs so darn amazing?
Speaker 3:Yeah, I can take that one. The main thing is that they're so much more efficient than internal combustion engine gasoline vehicles, so three to four times more efficient. That's why most of these have EPA window stickers over 100, or we're seeing even 130, 140 miles per gallon equivalent. So they're much more efficient because they use a lot less fuel. They can also be much cheaper to operate. When you use electricity it really depends on electricity rates. But some places like here in Indonesia, it's a tenth the cost of gasoline In California. It might be more, in Hawaii maybe more like half as much or approaching the price of gasoline because electricity prices are much higher. But generally most markets you're going to get two, three, four times as many miles on a dollar as you would with a gas car. The performance they're very quick, fun to drive. Oh, and I should mention on the lower total cost of ownership, not just the fueling but maintenance can be a lot less. You don't have to change your spark plugs or various other, there's just a lot less components.
Speaker 1:Brake pads.
Speaker 3:Yeah, brake pads. Brake pads, you do need to change.
Speaker 1:Oil Very rarely. Oil and spark change those routine changes Brake pads? Very rarely, yeah.
Speaker 2:My first electric vehicle is a Nissan Leaf. It's probably got about 80,000 miles on it. We gave it to my mother-in-law and it's still on the original set of brake pads.
Speaker 1:Amazing, pretty amazing. Yeah, the regen braking is why that works, because basically, you're braking mostly with the engine or the motor engaging to regenerate, rather than using the brake pads, so they can last for decades. Yeah, brake pads, so they can last for decades.
Speaker 3:And what do you want? Tires though.
Speaker 1:I just think more wear and tear. I agree, because it's heavier.
Speaker 3:So I just want to finish with the environmental aspects, which are huge. So much lower overall footprint. In California it's about a three quarters reduction in greenhouse gas emissions per mile. And when you look at also the manufacturing footprint, it's much, much lower than a gasoline vehicle. And since most grids are getting cleaner around the world, evs actually get cleaner as they, unlike gas engines, which get dirtier as components fail and et cetera. So there's the greenhouse gas benefit and then the zero tailpipe emissions. So much less local air pollution, which is a huge thing in polluted cities or especially with medium heavy duty EVs around warehousing areas or ports, places in China where are very polluted, and you get EVs on the road and you can have a big reduction in the local air pollution as well. Indeed, yeah.
Speaker 1:Sorry, let me add real quick, then I'll go to you, noel. I drive a Tesla Model 3, and we'll get into Tesla guilt in a second here. But my Model 3 gets four times the efficiency of the average equivalent gas car and it's amazing. I think people often lose sight of that. It's four times the efficiency and when you charge it, like I do on solar in my house, it's literally 1% or less the carbon emissions of a regular gas car, which is just remarkable, not to mention the independence benefits. Go ahead, you're going to chime in.
Speaker 2:You're essentially driving on sunshine. Yeah, literally we do the same here, which is pretty amazing. The other thing, just a couple more things noise pollution, right, especially in cities. You can imagine all the noise in Honolulu or these big cities. If everything was electrified, how much more pleasant the environment would be. And then the other thing is convenience with regard to fueling the vehicle. Obviously, it's not the same for everybody, but for most folks who have access to home charging it's a very simple you plug in when you get home. The car's ready to go when you're ready for your next trip. And the same can't be said for a gas vehicle where there's so much inconvenience associated with finding a gas station, dealing with the fumes and all that. Anyway, just wanted to throw that in as well.
Speaker 3:And I would put that out there as a really strong selling point for people. I've talked to a lot of people who are thinking about buying electric vehicles and that is one of the big hangups is oh, how do you charge it? What about when you go on a road trip? How do you find the chargers? And what I point out to them is how often do you drive more than 200 miles in a day on a trip that you're not flying somewhere?
Speaker 3:For most people it's maybe only a few times, or maybe a week or two on a road trip, and you have that 350 days out of the year that are. An EV is much more convenient because you can just charge it up every night or every few nights at home, never have to worry about it when you do a road trip. It can be a little, you have to stop a little longer for your lunch break or whatever, but it's still pretty easy to go on a road trip, and so that's what I like to point out to people is 350 days of the year it may be more convenient than a gas car. That week or two you go on a road trip or drive more than 200 miles in the day, it could be a little less convenient, but overall I like driving an EV more than going to gas stations.
Speaker 1:Yeah, and then, what EVs do you drive?
Speaker 2:So I have a 2013 Tesla Model S and a couple of years back we purchased a Model X and we have a garage queen, a 2011 Roadster we use for our car shows.
Speaker 1:And Michael, you still have your. Model 3?.
Speaker 3:Yeah, so I started with a plug-in hybrid back in 2011. I had a Chevy Volt and had that for six years and we're a one-car household. We have a family of four. We needed something with longer range to be able to get to the mountains, et cetera. But when the first longer range EVs came out the Chevy Bolt and the Tesla Model 3, we got one. So we've had our Tesla Model 3 for six years now and, yeah, we've taken it on a road trip all the way from Santa Barbara to Utah and back, supercharging along the way and going to very remote areas, camping in national parks, et cetera. So, yeah, we have some experience with road tripping in an ET.
Speaker 1:Very cool.
Speaker 1:And I won't dwell on this at all, but I will just address the Tesla Guild issue. I have had a number of people ask me Tim, are you going to sell that now? Elon's gone crazy. I'm like, yes, he has gone crazy. I'm not a fan, but the cars are amazing. So my motto nowadays is pity the man, love the car. And I think it's a fair point, because obviously a lot of people bought their Teslas before he became nuts and they're still amazing cars. Like we said, they're incredibly green, incredibly efficient. So I do urge people to not judge its hosannas too badly.
Speaker 3:Did you get that bumper sticker, the one that says I bought this before we knew Elon?
Speaker 1:was crazy. My car is a lease. I don't really want to get like sticker and goo on it. But we'll see, Maybe I'll be forced into that.
Speaker 3:I just wanted to mention that. It's crazy, witnessing this whole thing. I actually met Elon Musk about what? 12, 13 years ago, and at that point he wasn't very famous and he struck me as just such a remarkable. He was one of my heroes for a very long time Me too. And then in the last few years and then in the last few months, this is like the fastest brand destruction and becoming a toxic brand that I've ever seen and, like Tesla's, moving, losing so much market share in the US, but especially in Europe.
Speaker 3:They had a decrease in sales and a lot of their big stock prices is because of the future growth that they're going to see, as well as self-driving potential. But yeah, it's pretty crazy just to see how fast the Tesla brand has become toxic, and this is also a big opportunity for legacy OEMs that are making more compelling EVs and startups like Rivian and Lucid that are only EVs, and so hopefully what we're going to see is like when you prune a plant there's like a bunch of more leaders that grow out and hopefully we'll see a lot more compelling EVs from other companies, as Tesla's market dominance really slows down.
Speaker 1:Yeah, it's really unfortunate to see that transpire.
Speaker 2:I keep reminding folks that, while he is a very prominent component of the brand, he is not Tesla. He alone. Is not Tesla. Right, you've got I don't know how many hundred thousand employees that make up the company. You've got incredible products, incredible IP, and it's just really unfortunate that you've got one individual that is so intricately tied to the brand and one who has gone off the rails. It's really unfortunate.
Speaker 1:Yeah, fully agree on that, and I think we'll leave it at that for now. Let's turn to the state of the EV market overall. Michael, you mentioned that we are seeing some big shifts. Do you want to give a little summary of the EV market in California and then Noel can do the same for Hawaii?
Speaker 3:Yeah, I was actually going to start a little bit just more on the global, because I think it's important to see what's happening around the world and the 2024 data. So 17.3 million EVs were sold, which is a 26% increase from 2023. So that's a very healthy continued growth that we're seeing. And in 2023, electric car sales were 14 million. This is we have more complete data from the, the IEA 40 million EVs on the road. More than one in three new car registrations in China was electric in 2023. One in five in Europe and then one in 10 in the United States and then in some European countries, like Norway is at 95% EV adoption and then sweden at 60. So some markets are already there.
Speaker 1:And then one of the clear sales.
Speaker 3:That's for sales, not for the overall market for sales, yeah, percent of new vehicle sales.
Speaker 3:And then I want to note that china exported over 4 million vehicles in 2023, of which 1.2 million were evs, and so we're going to see a lot more of this, as the Chinese overbuilt factories now are starting to export electric vehicles to emerging markets, as well as to Europe not to the US because of the whole tariff situation, but, yeah, pretty fascinating just to see the overall market, that's 95% of EV sales are in these three biggest markets. And then, when we're getting down to the US market, 2023 numbers, us as a whole was at about 9%, and then battery electric vehicles and then 22% electrified, which includes plug-in hybrids and hybrids. And then with states, we saw a lot of variants. California is up at 26% in new vehicle sales being electric, and then you have other states in the high teens District of Columbia, washington, oregon, colorado, hawaii's 10th at 11% and then you have some laggers like Louisiana, west Virginia, mississippi, north Dakota all at one to 2% of market share. So that's a rundown from the global to then the US numbers Can you tell us about?
Speaker 1:Hawaii's market.
Speaker 2:Yeah, so as far as the counts, this was, as of March, close to 37,000 electric vehicles. It's still a fraction of the million vehicles or so that we have here in the States. We're approaching 4% of the registered passenger vehicles are electric and this is battery electric. And the growth year over year it's 18 to 20% year over year and we're probably going to see it taper off a little bit based on all the things that we've seen here in terms of the potential impact to the tax credits, what's happening in Washington and potentially the price points may increase as a result of what's happening in Washington and potentially the price points, right, may increase as a result of what's happening in the marketplace in general. Yeah, so I think that here in Hawaii it continues to be a great opportunity for folks. There's fuel prices are high, electricity prices are high. Anything we can do to increase adoption by emphasizing efficiency is going to help and thankfully, I think a lot of the barriers to adoption here can be addressed or are related to it, to awareness or the lack thereof.
Speaker 1:Yeah, hawaii in many ways is ideal for EVs because the islands are mostly small, except for the big island. It's easy to drive around the island on a single charge. You can charge solar in your own home, typically California also quite good because it is quite sunny for the most part. It's a bigger state, obviously, but you have a lot more chargers in California than you do in Hawaii. Let's talk about EV chargers. This is an issue we hear a lot that people worry about, as you mentioned earlier, michael, range anxiety. I know you like to talk about range confidence. Do you want to tell us about that a bit in the EV charger market?
Speaker 3:Yeah, Range anxiety was a coin that was termed early on and people did feel it. I drove my mom's Nissan Leaf on a little longer trip and I definitely felt it. I haven't really felt as much with the Tesla or the large battery EVs. But yeah, range confidence is what we're trying to encourage with the huge build out of EV chargers. Some data from late last year from the Biden-Harris administration just during that administration that four years the number of publicly available EV chargers doubled.
Speaker 3:So 192,000 publicly available charging ports. A000 new public chargers were being added each week. And then, getting down to California, there's 65,000 public chargers, 87,000 shared private so these are ones at workplaces or maybe at a condo association. So 152,000 public shared private chargers total. And then remember, of the millions of electric vehicles on the road in California, most people have EV chargers at their home, so a lot of EV charging installed Anecdotally there's. The Tesla superchargers probably remain the most reliable and other manufacturers are now becoming able to use Tesla superchargers. So that's going to be a huge benefit for the whole EV market. Not sure about benefit for the Tesla drivers with more people charging at the Tesla superchargers, but some of the Tesla supercharger sites in California there'll be 12 usually, or 24. Some of them have up to 50 or a hundred superchargers at one site. So massive charging sites, yeah. So that's the rough lay of the land in the U? S, in California.
Speaker 1:Noel, can you tell us about Hawaii?
Speaker 2:Tim, you and I are very familiar with the situation, which isn't the most rosy, but I think it's improving and I think that once the Nevi hubs are installed I think there are like will be a total of nine or so here on this island. The plan is for five of these hubs. I think things will dramatically change. Tesla has been installing superchargers. They've got a couple, I believe, on Oahu. There's a plan for one.
Speaker 1:Four now. Four now on Oahu, is it?
Speaker 2:four now Wow.
Speaker 1:Okay.
Speaker 2:There is a plan for one over on Maui, and I think they're looking for sites here on Hawaii Island Between Nevi Tesla superchargers and then also the Hawaiian Electric DC fast chargers. I think they've upgraded three of their sites already and there are a couple more or so that need to be remedied. But I think to the point that we talked about earlier, the driving distances are relatively short and those folks who have the opportunity to charge at home rarely have the need to leverage DC fast charging, so it's primarily for the tourists, folks who live in apartments and condos. We certainly have our share of that, so I don't think it's as dire situation as in other states where the driving distances are quite profound. Clearly, there's a lot that can be done and there's some incentives in place to encourage business owners, for example, to adopt these DC fast chargers.
Speaker 1:Yeah, I do worry about Hawaii a lot more than California, I guess because I live here, but I guess in terms of the general public and EV adoption, because Hawaii has had a lot of issues. Even when you have chargers installed, they're often not working. I've had a lot of issues just getting my adapters to work at these chargers. So even though I do charge, mostly at home when I drive across the island, which I do semi-regularly I need to charge over there to get back with some comfort room and there's almost always issues.
Speaker 1:So I'm happy to hear that ECOG has put in three new chargers over in Kona, so they replaced one, put in three new ones. I'm going to try them out, hopefully pretty soon, but I also worry about where we go in five years. So obviously they're building out what's going to be probably the next five or 10 years for EV chargers and we're going to see, hopefully, a massive new growth phase despite the federal administration. So do you see Hawaii keeping pace with the market in terms of having that range confidence from sufficient chargers all over the place?
Speaker 2:It's going to be tough. If we look at the report that Hawaiian Electric had put out, which predicted the number of DC fast chargers and level two charging ports that would be required, what we have today is a fraction of what's required, so I think it's going to be a. It will be a challenge and I think that there will need to be some strategies put in place to encourage the installation of these charging stations. I think some of the things that have happened recently, like the settlement right against DOT, that's inspired funding for charging stations, and I think there's also this need for an awareness that there needs to be a mix, a diversity of solutions. We talk a lot about DC fast chargers, but many level two stations strategically placed can mitigate some of the need for a public charging, like high speed charging right. I think it's going to be a challenge. To answer your question, it will be a challenge. I think it'll need a concerted effort, public and private, to ensure that this doesn't become a deterrent in terms of progress towards our electrification goals.
Speaker 1:Yeah, I agree. And so getting in the weeds a bit further, hawaii Electric they recently pulled their application to install a few dozen more FAT chargers around the islands, and this was after four years of a kind of languishing of the PUC for reasons we don't know. And this is after four years of a kind of languishing of the PUC for reasons we don't know. At the same time, tesla has been very slow deploying their own chargers. Very happy to hear that the state DOT has committed to funding the Nevi chargers, even if Trump cuts off funding for Nevi, which he's trying to do. So we are going to see some new ones. But it seems to me we need to really get diligent now in planning the next wave of installations for three to five years from now. What do you think of that?
Speaker 2:I agree. I agree. I also think we need to take into account the fact that it's not just about the electrification of the transport system, right, the existing transport system. I think there's a realization, I think it's reality everywhere, that you can't just do a shift of every single gas vehicle to electric and find that to be the solution. It's not going to happen in time. It's also not the right thing. So I think, in concert with efforts to reduce VMT right, reduce the need for passenger vehicles or personal passenger vehicles, I think that it may help us to achieve that. It's not just electrification, it's decarbonization of our transport system. That said, assume that we can reduce the need for personal passenger vehicles, they're still going to be the vehicles that need to be electrified, and I think we're going to have to be very persistent in terms of advocating for policies that will encourage local businesses, maybe even encourage that carve out for public subsidies right, so that we can actually get some of these stations out there.
Speaker 2:And one thing that you said, too, I think it's really critical, is it's not just about getting these things deployed, it's ensuring that they're maintained right, they're reliable. It's really frustrating for an EV owner to drive thinking that on the other end of the tunnel there's going to be this charging station that they'll be able to plug into and they'll make it home without any issues. And you get there and it's busted or it's just not performing. We've got to create redundancy and we also need to ensure that these things are maintained.
Speaker 3:Yeah, and I know a lot of the California and, I think, the federal NEVI other grant programs definitely include metrics that EV companies, charger companies need to provide around uptime, et cetera. As having a Tesla and using mostly Tesla EV chargers, it's really been a seamless experience.
Speaker 3:And my dad has had a Bolt and drove it from Santa Barbara to Seattle.
Speaker 3:I was kind of like, oh, dad, you probably don't want to do that, but he was going on this trip and he's also a little older guy. So sometimes there's user errors with just the vast array of charging chargers out there, the different apps, etc. Just the vast array of charging chargers out there, the different apps, et cetera. Whereas Tesla makes it so easy where you just use your vehicle navigation system to pull up to the charger. It always works and you don't even need a credit card or anything, you just plug in and go. And I think the rest of the EV industry, ev charger industry is adopting some of that, like where you can just plug your car in and go. I think that will be very helpful, along with uptime for making fast charging much more accessible and easier for people to use, especially as we go from early adopter to the early majority and get EVs into every driveway or garage and Michael, do you see the California charging networks as adequate for the next five years to get California to its 2030 goals?
Speaker 3:Yeah, california has a very sophisticated process for developing forecasts of how many EV charges we need, because we had the 5 million by 2030 EV goal, which in 1.5 million by 2025, we blew past that.
Speaker 3:The EV market in general has just increased a lot faster than a lot of experts had forecasted, and so then with that, the Energy Commission has very sophisticated reports and analysis on how many EV chargers do we need. And then we have amazing grant programs the best in the US and probably in the world in terms of because we have consistent funding through our cap and trade program and vehicle license tax, where there's just all types of different grant opportunities that come out for EV charging companies to add chargers around the state. And in the early years it's really focused on urban and corridor charging, which is now very well built out. Most of the grants coming out now have a focus more on, like multifamily disadvantaged communities, workplace charging, rural communities, just really making sure that there's EV chargers every mile of California so that people have that range confidence. So I think there's definitely a good plan and funding for it, and it's a strategy that other states should definitely emulate.
Speaker 1:Yeah, let's go back to a point that Noel made. It's not always about having your electric version of your big gas guzzler. There are many other options Two wheelers, three wheelers. Obviously, walking and biking. I won't go there right now, but let's talk about two wheelers and three wheelers. What are you seeing in those markets? And we see electric bikes all the time. Nowadays they're pretty popular.
Speaker 3:Yeah, and actually being here in Indonesia, where there's many more scooters and motorbikes on the road than regular cars, it's a massive opportunity. And I know some data from 2023 again so nearly 6 million electric two-wheelers sold in 2023, 6 million in China and then almost a million in India, and then other Asian countries are quickly catching up as well. The two-wheeler market, which is a big thing in Asia, where most of the global population lives, is exploding, which is a really great thing as well, starting to see more two-wheelers on the road here in Indonesia, and it is interesting seeing when you go to some of the fancier shopping malls, you'll see BYD has a huge display with all their electric vehicles. It's a very aspirational thing for Indonesians who are considering vehicles to go for an electric one. We see a lot of yeah, wuling and BYD, two of the bigger EV companies in China that are making big inroads in the Indonesian market and other Asian and developed emerging markets as well.
Speaker 3:So, yeah, fascinating to see both the two-wheel market, the passenger vehicle market, and then also I've done some work in medium and heavy duty, and this is another place where California is a big leader, trying to get electric buses and trucks on the road, Because these are really the ones where there's a huge impact not just for the climate but also for public health or people that live adjacent to freeways or ports, to be able to clean up, get the diesel trucks off the road and then get electric vehicles in there, and also for many fleets it could be a really good business case because they know how many miles their vehicle's driving each day.
Speaker 3:It's a very predictable route that they can do, especially for hub and spoke and delivery type vehicles. So really excited to see the medium and heavy duty truck and bus market really start growing. I know in Santa Barbara, where I live, we have one of the best electric bus programs in the country and even on my street to Noel's point earlier now that the electric buses are coming by rather than the diesel buses. It's just so much quieter, which is a huge benefit when they go by your window at six in the morning yeah.
Speaker 2:You can imagine Honolulu right, They've got all these garbage trucks as well, flying really early in the morning with all that noise.
Speaker 1:You can just imagine that they transition to zero emission or electric. Sorry, what are you saying for Hawaii in terms of the two-wheeled market, whether it's bikes or scooters, both kinds of scooters. You've got tiny scooters that you stand on.
Speaker 2:You just go to the bigger scooter that you ride, yeah. So, as far as the micros go, I think that I think it's very space, place-based, right. So Honolulu, the city I think it's ideal for micro mobility. I think it's the parking is at a premium can easily get around. For places that are rural, like here, hawaii Island, it's a bit of a challenge. Now, if you live in town, it's probably the most ideal way to get around, primarily if most of your commute is within town. So I think there's an opportunity there.
Speaker 2:I think there are infrastructure considerations for that type of transport mechanism to be adopted, even in the city. It's got to be safe, right, you can't be competing with cars. You've got to have your dedicated paths and it's got to be safe, right, you can't be competing with cars. You've got to have your dedicated paths and it's got to be safe. People need to be comfortable with that safety factor for it to actually take off of a stretch. You can imagine if there was a carve out for bikes. That's a straight path. It's ideal. It's an ideal location. However, it's not safe. You've got cars going 60, 70 miles an hour on that stretch, right, I think there's a future for it and we see the adoption, probably more so in the city compared to in Big Island and other rural areas.
Speaker 3:Yeah, I think micromobilities and e-bikes are a really interesting one to watch and I agree 100%, noel, with the need to reduce vehicle miles traveled and to what California is doing is with most of the new development that's happening. We're really trying to put it into existing downtowns and more urban areas, not the sprawling development, so that when new households are formed or new living units are constructed, people are in those urban areas and in the cities where you may not need to have a second car or even one car at all.
Speaker 3:And micromobility can make a big impact. At the same time, we're also investing a huge amount in bike infrastructure, bike and pedestrian infrastructure, and one side benefit of that is that now you see a lot of the electric bikes or even electric scooters or other unicycle micromobility electric devices that are using the bike lane. So I live on a bike lane so I can sit on my front porch and watch, and it's amazing how many different types of vehicles not just push bikes are pedaling down the road or zooming down the road, and so that's another side benefit of building that there's more livable, walkable, bikeable cities is that the micro mobility people can use and that there's only a certain amount of people that will bike. Electric bikes, though, really increase that market to older folks or people that want a bike. Some people would never ride a bike, but they'll ride an electric scooter or some other micromobility device. So that's another side benefit of building more bike lanes and places for these micromobility devices to use.
Speaker 1:Let's turn to pricing. Now there's a notion, I think still pretty common, that EVs are pretty expensive. Can you weigh in on that, Noel?
Speaker 2:It's still the reality. If you compare, you've got manufacturers out there with the same form factor, like a Hyundai Ioniq, for example, right, or a Kona. You can buy a gas version, a hybrid version and an electric version. And you compare the price points, they will be typically more for the electric version. Right, there's more technology, there's the component costs, batteries, etc. They add to the price point.
Speaker 2:However, it's not just about the price of the vehicle. Right, as we talked about earlier, there are savings associated with efficiency. Right, your fuel costs are going to be less. And then there's also the maintenance component. And it's a challenge because selling that to somebody who's just comparing the price of a gas vehicle versus an electric vehicle, they have to be very savvy and educated about total cost of ownership and not just what the upfront price points are when making their purchase decision. The reality is it's approaching price parity and in some cases, when you compare total cost of ownership, the EV version is probably going to be the better version, but it's not quite there yet. It'll get there. The other consideration is that the pre-owned market is significant. Now. There's so many pre-owned vehicles out there that, just like with any vehicle, it doesn't matter if it's gas or electric, you drive it off the lot and it's depreciated right. Many of these vehicles still have a lot of life, a lot of functionality, a lot of range and they certainly are an option, an affordable option, for many.
Speaker 1:And you can get a great deal on many used Teslas right now. Yeah, pretty sure which.
Speaker 3:I did.
Speaker 1:There's actually still. There's a tax credit for used EVs four grand for an EV versus seven and a half grand for a new EV. So you can get, yeah, some great deals, not just Teslas, but all sorts of EVs nowadays used. Noel, when do you see that cost parity being achieved in terms of the, let's say, five-year cost of ownership for an EV compared to a gas version of the same car?
Speaker 2:Are you referring to length of ownership? Before you start to balance?
Speaker 1:When do we see that crossover where EVs are no longer more expensive for the same model, when you factor in, say, five years of ownership based on fuel saving?
Speaker 2:I'd be guessing. I think that, and, michael, you may have some insight on this. If we take a look at just economies of scale, what's happening with manufacturers as they start to ramp up production? You've got platforms being leveraged across different makes and models. You've got battery technology improving constantly and the price of the batteries going down. We're going to see it. We're going to see that price parity. Now.
Speaker 2:The interesting thing, though, is that it doesn't matter right If, at the end of the day, you've got vehicles like gas, vehicles that are going to be obsolete. They're going to be more expensive to operate. Comparing the price point or the MSRP of one vehicle versus the other, I think it's a moot point as far as I'm concerned, especially now that there are many options that are available that are affordable. You don't have to get a BMW electric or compare it against a BMW gas version compared against a BMW gas version. Find another vehicle a Hyundai, a Kia, a Tesla Model 3 or Model Y, so I don't know. I tend to shy away from doing those comparisons because I like to focus on total cost of ownership and all the other benefits that are affiliated with shifting to an electric vehicle. It's almost like what are the value adds, what are all the added value, experiences and cost advantages et cetera that come in with your decision to go electric, and you base it off of that and not just how much does it cost you to purchase it.
Speaker 3:Yeah, one of the biggest value adds. We mentioned the convenience of charging at home, but it sounds like all three of us have solar and our electric vehicles and for me that's an amazing. It's not just a great emotional feeling when you see your solar or EV charging from this home power system that you have. But I know I've had my solar array for about 11 years now and after seven years it was fully paid off and so basically now for 20 years I can charge my electric vehicle for free. And so I tell people like how much do you spend on gas? Is it $2,000 or $3,000 a year? Imagine 20 years of charging your vehicle for free and at home by the solar array that you have on top of your roof. So that's an amazing benefit that I see of driving on sunshine and pairing EV plus PV.
Speaker 3:Back to that initial question about price, I'd say we're there at price parity with the luxury near luxury market because of Tesla and how well they've been able to do, because you can get a Tesla for cheaper than a comparable BMW or Audi or some of the others, and that's why they've done so well and why Tesla has had massive market share.
Speaker 3:Price parity in some of the other more economy cars I think will be reached in the next few years. It'll be a little later for trucks and SUVs because they have much larger batteries and that's the most expensive part of the EV, but battery prices are coming down tremendously year over year, so it's just a matter of time. A lot of the studies that I've seen have put later. 2020s is when we reach price parity for more economy vehicles and then we should see once EVs are cheaper than the comparable gas car plus you get all the savings and you can charge them at home and hopefully there's enough charging infrastructure for people that don't have an EV charger at home. That's really when we reach the tipping point and could see massive adoption of electric vehicles. That's the thing is like. We definitely see the battery prices dropping and it's just a matter of time before EVs are at price parity or cheaper.
Speaker 1:I think we're pretty close.
Speaker 2:Can I just add something? There's this other dimension around affordability, and that is right-sizing. Here in Hawaii especially, you have people that are opting for, let's say, the Ford F-150, the Lightning because there isn't a smaller form factor. I hope that we'll see a Ford Maverick that is all electric or a Tacoma that's all electric right, because the challenge we have right now is that people are just shifting from a gas guzzler SUV to a huge electric SUV and they may not need that. They may not need all of that vehicle right. And with that comes the cost, the carbon footprint, the tire replacements, et cetera, et cetera. So I think there's also a value in educating people that just because there's a more, there's an electrified version of something, if it's not the right thing, it's too much vehicle, it's not right-sized. Rethink that before you make that splurge.
Speaker 1:Yeah, a mutual friend of ours, michael and I, justin, recently downsized from his Tesla Model 3, which he loved, but I think he had some Tesla guilt and he went back to a Fiat EV 500 EV, which actually was my first electric car, and that was a great little car just like 80 miles of range but a perfect little commuter, and they even had two weeks of rental car free rental car access each year to deal with range anxiety. My second EV was a Chevy Bolt not my favorite car but, yeah, he went back to the Fiat EV 500 for his commute vehicle and he loves it. I think there's many options out there and those are quite affordable and we're going to see more and more of those kind of small cars that do the job for most of our needs.
Speaker 3:Yeah, that's one of the things oh sorry, keep going.
Speaker 3:No, go ahead, go ahead. I was going to say that's one of the things that my family's considering, because we've been a one car household for a long time and then had my daughter, who's almost four now, and now we have a one year old and I've had a bike seat for my daughter. But now, with two kids, we're like, ok, do we need a second car? But we're lucky to live in downtown Santa Barbara, which has great bike lanes and a lot of amenities nearby. So probably, instead of getting a second car, which would have been in like an EV, I'm probably going to go for an electric bike with the toddler seats in the back and we see a lot of them in urban areas with a little wagon mom or dad and then two kids hanging on the back of the electric bike.
Speaker 3:So we're going to try that. That's definitely doing the right sizing for our family and hopefully we'll be able to stay in one car family.
Speaker 1:I love it. Yeah, let me turn to a different topic now. We have been hearing a lot of noise from the new administration about eliminating the tax credit, which does provide a big boost to affordability. So again we have $7,500 in tax credit available for a new EV under a certain price limit. I think it's $80,000 now and then $4,000 for a used EV at $25,000 or below. If that tax credit is eliminated, do either of you see that actually changing the EV market substantially, or will the market adjust accordingly?
Speaker 3:I can go first. Yeah, I mean, I definitely think it will hinder EV adoption. The finances is a big part of it and, as Noel and I were talking about EVs, the MSRP may be more expensive than a comparable gas or hybrid vehicle, but when you put in that $7,500 tax credit, then the EV could be cheaper. So if you lose that, then it does change the calculus for a lot of people. I don't think it's going to totally stop the transition to EV. It will just slow the growth. And we have to also remember that this is something that Trump wants to do, but he has to get Congress to act, and there's a lot of things that Trump wants to do, but he has to get Congress to act, and there's a lot of things that.
Speaker 3:Trump wants to do and that he tries to do, that he's not able to do. His track record for turning his ideas into actual policy or policy rollbacks is pretty poor, and so, yeah, hopefully we're going to see some Republican lawmakers stand up to that and be able to keep the EV tax credit.
Speaker 2:Yeah, I share the same. I think there will be some impact, and maybe one of the things that could happen that we could encourage locally would be state action to maybe replace part of it. I know, tam, with this legislative session, we were hoping that there would be some type of rebate, as we had in the past, that could encourage adoption, especially for low, moderate income households. But yeah, it's like, michael, like you said, the intent is there, but to actually make it happen, especially given the adoption that's happening across the board. This is not a blue state versus red state. The benefit is to the people, regardless of their persuasion. I think there will be some headwinds associated with that, but hopefully there will be some maybe state-level intervention that could happen. And this is a short-term thing as well. Right, it's three and a half years more or whatever.
Speaker 1:Looking at the broader policy landscape, we are already seeing some big changes from the new administration and many planned changes. Can either of you talk about what's coming and what's already been done in terms of changes? Michael?
Speaker 3:I think Tim did the research on this one. So, tim, why don't you chime in? I was queuing you up, man.
Speaker 1:So, just very briefly, there has been a rule change with the EPA in terms of a notice rule change to roll back what Trump likes to call the EV mandate. It's actually not an EV mandate, but there is an emissions mandate which translates into a higher proportion of EVs over time. There is also an effort to undo the California waiver, which allows states to actually adopt either the California higher air emissions standard or the federal, and there's various other efforts to eliminate or water down anything in favor of EVs. My personal view is that the biggest boost for the EV market has been and will remain the tax credit, and so I'm actually quite happy that so far, even though we heard back in December or November that we're going to limit it, I've heard nothing concrete yet from the administration about a bill to actually do that. Have you guys started in a different lane? Do you see anything on?
Speaker 2:the horizon for that. No, what's happening right now in Washington is shock and awe. Every day you get some. There's whiplash every single day. But let's assume that.
Speaker 2:I think that the dependence on the tax credits to spur adoption, I think that's a short-lived. It should be a short-lived thing. I think once the price points get to a level that we talked about, there's parity or close to parity, and more and more people recognize the value adds associated with the ownership, it's not going to matter. Think about the credits. There are certain thresholds that need to exist. For it to be relevant, you've got to have a tax liability, so what that automatically means is that there are certain thresholds whereby it wouldn't apply anyway. I think that, especially for the advocates, for us to be able to advise folks about the benefits, the pocketbook benefits, the various value as we talked about previously, will help to keep the momentum going.
Speaker 2:And again, it doesn't have to be a brand new vehicle, it could be a used vehicle. It doesn't have to be a big vehicle, it could be a smaller vehicle. And here in Hawaii I think we've got it made. And the reason I say that is Ken, you mentioned this before the commute distances are relatively short, even here on Hawaii Island. Get a 250 mile EV or 200 mile EV, you're good. You should be able to do it With our 2013 Model S. We go to Costco, fill up the car really heavy and make it back without having to charge, and we still have 30%. I mean, it's an ideal location for electric vehicles and if you have charging at home and many people have not yet adopted EVs and they're in single family homes with an outlet that they can plug into I think there's so much that can happen even without the tax credits.
Speaker 1:Yeah, last question. Then we got to wrap it up here. Let's talk about tariffs real quick. This is another great example of major whiplash and I think as of now there is a 25% tariff on all cars imported into the US. That's for today. It might change tomorrow. So there's an interesting effect. There is that I think we can actually reasonably agree with Trump on this one small thing that it probably is a lot better for national security to produce more cars in the US. And also, I swear Trump would not agree to produce more EVs domestically that can be charged with domestic energy, hopefully mostly solar power, wind power, etc. So do you actually see a strange benefit to domestic EV production from this crazy terror situation?
Speaker 2:I think to answer that requires that we have a full comprehension of what it means to onshore EV production from cradle to grave right. I'm not an expert on this, but it's very clear that the supply chain and the various components that are required for vehicles they come from everywhere. There's a big chunk of it come in, including raw materials that come from China, for example, but you've got stuff that are going across border Canada, mexico constantly to be able to make these vehicles happen domestically. I don't know, that's a very difficult question to address because it's a very diversified supply chain and there's so many interdependencies across many different nations. And then you've got the raw material dependencies that right now, unfortunately, china has a big grab on, so- Really rare earth metals et cetera.
Speaker 2:Rare? Yeah, and I think they was that news recently where they were talking about just banning exportation.
Speaker 1:They said they're going to stop it.
Speaker 3:Yeah, yeah I would add also that the Biden administration had already started this with the Inflation Reduction Act and tax credits for onshoring and moving the production to US production to qualify for the tax credit. So I think a lot of the manufacturers for a couple of few years have been planning for more onshoring of electric vehicles and I agree that it can only help us to have more If Tesla can build electric vehicles and grow market share really quickly. Hopefully legacy OEMs can do that as well and create compelling US built at reasonable prices. And then on the whole tariff thing, we don't really know exactly we're getting that tariff whiplash. We don't really know where it's going to settle.
Speaker 3:I know most businesses are just pausing any investment or trying to figure out until there's more certainty about what's going to happen. And even then, as Sam just mentioned, three and a half years is going to pass in the blink of the eye and tariffs are very unpopular. Most people are very upset about the price increases et cetera that are going to happen because of tariffs. I don't really see massive tariffs sticking around for long term, especially as we go out after Trump and yeah, it's really. No one can predict the future. I don't even think Trump knows.
Speaker 1:Yeah, yeah, any final thoughts?
Speaker 2:No, I appreciate this. Michael, I appreciate meeting you and Tam, thanks for finally getting us together. Sorry, it's been like pulling teeth for the past few weeks, but this is definitely a really important topic and I'm glad we had the opportunity to meet and exchange notes here. Thank you.
Speaker 3:Yeah, really good to meet and have this discussion. Just one last thing. I think one topic that we didn't cover that I get asked about a lot is just what about the batteries and the environmental cost of the batteries? And one thing I'd like to point out is that, yes, when you manufacture a battery, there's, depending on the size of it, one to a few metric ton increase in the manufacturing. It's a small percent of the actual total manufacturing impact of a vehicle, but that is pointed out as like a detractor for the move to electric vehicles. But one thing about batteries is that they can be recycled, and so there's a lot of companies that are able to recycle battery components even 95, 98% of those raw materials and so you can get to a circular economy. Yes, we may need to do more mining in the next 10 or 20 years, but at a certain point we'll be able to just recycle these materials and get to that circular economy, whereas gasoline oil you have to just keep pumping it out of the ground.
Speaker 3:You have to keep mining it and it goes into our atmosphere and creates climate pollution. So that is one thing about the batteries and the EVs. That is another benefit.
Speaker 2:Yeah, michael, just to add to that, battery degradation to what? 70%, 80%, 70%? It's okay, it's a recipe for the main pack to be replaced, but those packs still have a lot of capacity and there are companies out there that are leveraging these batteries for stationary storage. So they get upcycled, they have more life as stationary storage solutions and then they get recycled and people they express concern about okay, this is just going to end up in the landfill and the reality of it is they're not. They're like thousands of dollars in a pack. Right, there's misinformation out there that we need to correct, so people understand that this is ultimately going to lead to what you just described, which is a more circular process for batteries.
Speaker 3:Yeah, and actually there's one solar utility scale solar project in Santa Barbara County that has used EV batteries as their energy storage source. So you're right. Hopefully the battery will last in the car for the life of the car 10, 20 years. They're manufactured for that, and then we could go into stationary storage for renewables and then, after another decade or a period of time, then be recycled. So we may not have a huge amount of like batteries for another decade or two to be able to recycle, which is a good thing.
Speaker 1:Yeah, Awesome. Thanks so much, guys. A really good discussion. I'll be in touch about the podcast link et cetera. And otherwise I'll talk to you soon thank you aloha, all right, bye.