Walmart Post-Audit Surge? 50-year Mortgages? Black Friday Forecast?

From a Walmart Post-Audit Surge⚡ to Shutdown Shockwaves🎢  to 50-year Mortgage Math➕ a Black Friday Forecast, this podcast episode is packed with news you can use!  Boyd & Al also delve into the new complexities of the retail industry and offer some encouragement to retail suppliers facing these challenges.

Keywords

#Walmart, #WalmartSuppliers, #RevenueDeductions, #GovernmentShutdown, #50yearMortgages, #BlackFriday, #retailindustry, #postauditclaims, #economicimpact, #consumerconfidence, #HRGAudit, #retailsuppliers

Takeaways

• The end of the government shutdown could boost the U.S. economy.
• 50-year mortgages might increase consumer spending.
• Black Friday's success is crucial for supplier confidence.
• Walmart suppliers face complex year-end post-audit claims.
• Retail industry complexity is increasing with new claim types.
• HRG offers support to suppliers dealing with claim complexities.
• Consumer confidence is key to economic recovery.
• Retail suppliers should focus on current business, not past performance.
• Tariffs and their impact on retailing are a major concern.
• HRG-audit.com is a resource for retail suppliers.

Chapters

• 00:00:00 Introduction and Government Shutdown
• 00:00:00 50-Year Mortgages and Economic Impact
• 00:00:00 Black Friday Outlook
• 00:00:00 Walmart's Year-End Audit Challenges
• 00:00:00 Retail Industry Complexity
• 00:00:00 Encouragement for Retail Suppliers

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Email:  Boyd.Evert@HRG-audit.com

#RetailSupplierDeductions
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#Post-AuditClaims
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"Wiser Decisions, Fewer Deductions"

Transcript

Transcript:  

Welcome into the Savvy Supplier where we save you time and money. I'm Al Frank alongside Boyd Evert the CEO and co-founder of HRG. Boyd, there's just so many hot topics at the moment. Would it be okay if I just kind of pepper you with a sort of lightning round of questions?

Boyd Evert (00:16.676)

Fire away.

Al Frank (00:19.096)

Well, ready or not, here we go. The government shutdown is over. Could that really propel the U.S. economy forward to end the year strong?

Boyd Evert (00:29.69)

I think what it will do is put us on a more solid footing on just understanding where the economy is going. We're probably not going to see the numbers for October per the White House announcement. So I think it's certainly going to help. I think just everything around, there's so much uncertainty of the economy. think that's certainly going to help maybe consumer confidence, which hopefully will translate into sales and help propel the economy.

Al Frank (01:01.932)

What are your thoughts on the idea of 50 year mortgages? Would that be a boost to the economy?

Boyd Evert (01:07.972)

Well, speaking strictly from the supplier standpoint, I think that potentially that could free up some money, some discretionary spending where the consumers might be more willing to spend money around Black Friday and into next year. I think that's going to create some great opportunities for especially for suppliers in the major appliances. We could see an uptick in home purchases.

which even if it's just people moving into existing homes, typically a lot of times when people move in, they want to replace the appliances. So I think that could be a boon for manufacturers of major appliances. And I think more broadly, that potentially could reduce the footprint of housing, right? So maybe somebody sitting around a third of their take-home of the budget, maybe it drops to

to 25 or even 20%. Again, that's going to free up additional funding, additional spending. Now, okay, so there's always two sides to that coin. The other side is that could potentially drive up consumer prices. But hopefully there's enough slack in the supply chain just due to tariffs, people stockpiling inventory that maybe that might just sort of, the two cancel each other out potentially.

Al Frank (02:35.96)

Well, here's another bellwether of the economy coming right around the corner here at us. Black Friday. What's the latest outlook for Black Friday?

Boyd Evert (02:45.498)

I would say we're cautiously optimistic. Where we're sitting right now is, I think we're cautiously optimistic that Black Friday will be a success. If it is, then that's going to signal to the supplier community that next year the economy is on pretty strong footing because of consumer confidence. If it's weak at all, then good news for

for consumers because there'll probably be some great deals maybe before Christmas, but certainly after Christmas getting rid of that excess inventory. Suppliers are going to have to put a lot of merchandise on clearance and markdowns, which there could be a lot of sales from that perspective. Black Friday is always a mixed bag in that regard. mean, what's good for suppliers isn't necessarily good for consumers and vice versa.

Al Frank (03:44.398)

Why are Walmart suppliers about to face an avalanche of year-end post-audit claims?

Boyd Evert (03:50.082)

Right. we know at Walmart, have a new audit firm. I should say an audit firm has taken on additional scope, new scope. APL was at Sam's for the past few years, and now they're also covering the Walmart side, the Walmart stores. And that's the level of complexity is much higher on the Walmart side that is on Sam's. It's just true of warehouse clubs, whether it's Costco, BJ, wholesale.

what have you, the way they go to market is vastly different than a discount retailer like Walmart. So I think what we're seeing is the past three quarters, the claim volume, both in the number of claims and the amount, is been lower year over year. So I expect a rather large uptick in claim submissions and deductions in Q4.

which means a lot of suppliers are going to be very busy. It might feel as though they got some coal in the stocking

Al Frank (04:56.75)

You mentioned complexity. Would you say that the retail industry is getting more more complex?

Boyd Evert (05:03.992)

Yeah, I think so. We're seeing new claim types and existing types of claims evolve and become a little bit more technical. so as the industry matures, because this industry goes back to late 60s, early 70s, and now it's a very mature industry. so inside those mature industries, you tend to lean into complexity and trying to

to write, find, and deduct those claims. So yes, as a claim volume goes up, the complexity often goes up, which means it's gonna take you more time to research, more time to dispute. So yeah, this is becoming more and more involved.

Al Frank (05:47.488)

As complexity goes up, so does stress. Do you have any word of encouragement for retail suppliers in the midst of all this?

Boyd Evert (05:50.552)

Yes.

Boyd Evert (05:55.426)

Yes, I would encourage retail suppliers to reach out to HRG because we've got a team of people who know how to deal with the complexity and how to deal with the time crunch and we can handle a large volume of claims. And what I frequently tell suppliers when I'm at industry groups, speaking, is that you're in the business of driving sales, of growing your business.

And part of that shouldn't be looking back to what you did last quarter, last year, or two years ago. You should be focusing on the business at hand. And that's something that HRG can clearly help you focus on your business rather than focus on where you were last year.

Al Frank (06:43.31)

Well, thank you, Boyd. Glad you,

Al Frank (06:55.15)

Let me ask you about the RVCF conference. just spoke there. What was the reaction to your talk on tariffs and the uncertainty about all of that?

Boyd Evert (07:07.638)

Yeah, we had a great group, a lot of good questions. And as we were talking through the impact of tariffs on retailing, there was a lot of heads nodding in agreement with some of the things that we were encouraging them to do and communicating and trying to set expectations clearly. And then also calling out the fact that next year and maybe the next two years, you're going to see these negotiations.

over tariffs and how to manage those price increases come into scope and the auditor is going to step in and try to sort things out and they may or may not get it right. But either way, there's going to be a lot of disputes in the coming months and years. So yeah, the crowd was great. I think there's a lot of concern about the uncertainty of tariffs, not just in the current business, but what does this look like downstream?

And we had a mix of people from people who are dealing with the day-to-day operations, those who are coping with decisions made by upper management, and then they're told to implement them, and they may or may not be aligned with them. But essentially, it's people being asked to do things they normally don't do, which typically does lead to exposure on the post audit side.

Al Frank (08:30.798)

Well, I know they pepper you with questions, just as I have here. If people want to send in a question, you can reach Boyd and all of us here at HRG at HRG-audit.com. HRG-audit.com. Great place to find out more. You can go to our website and see all kinds of frequently asked questions with answers to those. We also want to thank you for subscribing to the podcast. We have more than 2000 subscribers now.

And if you haven't subscribed yet, it's totally free. You can just click subscribe and that will help more people to find the podcast. Very thankful for all the subscribers who are helping us to make this podcast to grow. And as always, our wish for you is this, wiser decisions, fewer deductions. See you next time on the Savvy Supplier.