Why Smart Women Podcast
Welcome to the Why Smart Women Podcast, hosted by Annie McCubbin. We explore why women sometimes make the wrong choices and offer insightful guidance for better, informed decisions. Through engaging discussions, interviews, and real-life stories, we empower women to harness their intelligence, question their instincts, and navigate life's complexities with confidence. Join us each week to uncover the secrets of smarter decision-making and celebrate the brilliance of women everywhere.
Why Smart Women Podcast
Why is Annie always right? Pt.2
Ever felt absolutely certain about something, only to discover you were blinded by what you wanted to believe? In this eye-opening exploration of confirmation bias, Annie McCubbin and her husband David unravel what psychologists call "the mother of all biases" – our tendency to embrace information that supports our existing beliefs while rejecting anything that challenges them.
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That's right. I know that you have a belief that I don't do as much tidying up as you do.
Speaker 2:Yeah, but that's just reality.
Speaker 1:No, hang on a second. No, it's reality. No, no, that's it.
Speaker 2:Hang on, you're not going to put that on confirmation bias.
Speaker 1:Well, you say that we are. I'm going to get Harry in on this. Hang on, no, no, no, Harry who's messy.
Speaker 2:You are listening to the podcast that helps smart women work out why we repeatedly make the wrong decisions and how to make better ones. From relationships, career choices, finances, to faux fur, jackets and kale smoothies. Every moment of every day, we're making decisions. Let's make them good ones. I'm your host, annie McCubbin, and, as a woman of a certain age, I've made my own share of really bad decisions. Not my husband, I don't mean him, though I did go through some shockers to find him, and I wish this podcast had been around to save me from myself. This podcast will give you insights into the working of your own brain, which will blow your mind. I acknowledge the traditional owners of the land on which I'm recording and you are listening on this day. Always was, always will be Aboriginal land, so welcome back. This is a continuation of our discussion on confirmation bias. I hope you enjoy it. Please stay tuned to the end of the ep because we have a special announcement.
Speaker 1:And I think that there's got to be a strong relationship between confirmation bias and motivated reasoning.
Speaker 2:Motivated reasoning is more conscious.
Speaker 1:It's more conscious, is it? I think every time that I've made those errors, it's because I've had a dream, you know, a big desire. You know, I was pursuing a big, hairy, audacious goal and was blind to the important red flags, and I was distracting myself with signals that indicated that I actually was on the right track, that confirmed that it was possible when probably it was not.
Speaker 2:Yeah, yeah. Well, as we keep saying, confirmation bias is the mother of all biases and you wouldn't have racism without it. You look at a person that has a certain racial identity and you immediately start to confirm the thought you have about them, before you even met them.
Speaker 1:Yes.
Speaker 2:You know the terrible thing about that Asians are bad drivers. So all your brain does is, you know, scan, scan, scan, scan, scan, until you sort of see one Chinese lady behind the wheel of a Volvo doing something, and then that represents everything, right.
Speaker 1:Yeah, that's the Venn diagram. Yeah, a Chinese lady Volvo driver that's right. Forgive me for pointing that out.
Speaker 2:Oh, that's right, it is the Venn diagram. Yeah, yeah.
Speaker 1:And that's confirmation bias 100%.
Speaker 2:You know she could be like well, who's the guy that's just won the…. Oscar Piastri yeah she could be like who's the guy that's just won the Oscar Piastri? Yeah, she could be like Oscar Piastri. We don't know, but we make these assumptions about people.
Speaker 1:Except he's male, not Asian, and he's not driving a Volvo, I know, but still, he must be good. He must be good.
Speaker 2:And this is what we do all the time. We take mental shortcuts, because if we didn't take mental shortcuts, we'd never get out of bed. Because we need mental shortcuts to try and put the world into manageable bites, right.
Speaker 1:And so it follows that it's comforting. You know it's comforting. I know what's going on yeah, when our lovely Greek friend behaves in ways that are stereotypically Greek, it's comforting, it's amusing, it's funny, you know, arriving late with lots of food and being very loud and helpful and nice. Yeah, yeah, yeah yeah.
Speaker 2:And bringing souvlaki. Am I allowed to use that accent?
Speaker 1:Well, I don't know.
Speaker 2:Yeah, A friend of Lily's said to me the other day, because I was talking about the fact that, as actors, we can't use Lily, our daughter. A friend of Lily's said to me not, Lily, as actors we're not really allowed to appropriate accents anymore, and I was doing one perhaps inappropriately, but I'm so good at them, it's so tempting. And he said to me yeah, but you're just sort of permanently in rehearsal for something, like you're honing your craft as an actor and I like that.
Speaker 1:Yes.
Speaker 2:Because yeah, I like that.
Speaker 1:That's motivated reasoning.
Speaker 2:That's totally motivated Because you just enjoy accents. I do.
Speaker 1:Because they are sort of viscerally pleasurable.
Speaker 2:Yeah, because they're also yeah.
Speaker 1:And so I actually reckon that there's probably a sprinkling of confirmation bias in that as well. A hundred percent, yeah, okay.
Speaker 2:You know the assumptions we make about people and about events. It's all just confirmation bias. You know, I see a guy you know a heavyset guy, you know walking towards me. You know it's getting dark towards me. You know it's getting dark and maybe I think I'm in a bit of. You know, maybe I then naturally assume that perhaps, maybe I'm in danger.
Speaker 1:It's you know this whole female thing about.
Speaker 2:Obviously we do have to be careful. You know he could be a. You know a doctor who's just done a shift at the local hospital. I don't know who he is yeah but we look for signs that confirm things in order to keep us safe in order to make sense to make sense of the world, really isn't it?
Speaker 1:yeah well, I mean I I think there are a couple of reasons and, and maybe it's actually the same reason, I think the safety thing I think the safety thing is is a big driver. Um, because, uh, the human brain modus operandi, absolute, prime objective is to keep you safe. So I mean I observe you when we're on the street and there's a group of young men, when there's a large group of young men wearing dark clothes walking in our direction, I know that that makes you a little unsettled for no other reason that I think that it's your amygdala going off. Prime objective keep you safe. Have a fear response in that moment.
Speaker 2:And then the brain. Well, if they're loud and a bit drunk, I don't like it.
Speaker 1:I get scared, and then you get the confirmation bias. Yes, I'm right to be scared, because they're badly behaved and don't respect other people's boundaries. Yeah, yeah, yeah.
Speaker 2:And I guess the same thing comes in this notion of I'm having a run, like someone will think why does bad stuff keep happening to me? I'm having a run, like someone will think why does bad stuff keep happening to me? I'm having a run of bad luck yep now are you having a run of bad luck? I think this, you know, the whole bad things happen in threes. People really love this idea.
Speaker 2:It's in my first book. Um, bad things happen in threes. One thing's happened. They wait for the second two to happen, and you'd have, because it's confirmation bias. And then I can wrap that up in a parcel and go there's the three bad things. I can get on with my life, of course.
Speaker 2:What constitutes a bad thing? If you're looking for things happening threes, what are they? You know, did you break your fingernail or did your house, you know, fall into a sinkhole? Like what do you count? So you're just going to look for anything. I'm just going to check the environment and go here's these three bad things. Um, I dropped my keys. The dog got off his lead. Um, you know, the bathroom flooded. There's the three bad things.
Speaker 2:I'm done, but in the interim of those three bad things, there could have been 17 good things. And why are they bad? And it's the the same, with on a roll of good luck, everything's going my way. You know, the day has started really well. Therefore, confirmation bias, I'm going to look out for other things that support the idea that today is going well. Well, the day is just the day. Something good might happen in the morning, something bad might happen at night, or something bad might happen in the morning. It doesn't mean that you're going to have a bad day. But if you do think that, if you think, well, today's a write-off, right, it's a write-off then all your brain is going to notice is that everything went wrong. Does that make sense?
Speaker 1:Yeah, absolutely. And as you're describing it, I'm thinking about how confirmation bias, unchecked, can absolutely destroy a relationship. Okay, I'm not having a bad day. Maybe you know this is a bad relationship, or this is a bad person for me, or this is a really, really destructive work, colleague, you know, for instance, yeah, and what I know can happen is that all you will see in the behavior of other people is the stuff that confirms that you are right to be feeling some sense of, you know, animosity or frustration or irritation with this other person, or you want to feel that.
Speaker 2:whatever you're feeling emotionally is justified.
Speaker 1:Yeah, that's right.
Speaker 2:We don't want to have to go. This emotion I'm having is errant. That's right, Right.
Speaker 1:So say, someone that you work with in an open plan area, maybe the story that you've got in your head is that they are unconsiderate, inconsiderate, inconsiderate. That's right, yeah, that they're inconsiderate, that they don't care about anybody else. And every time you hear their voice, that just confirms this.
Speaker 2:Triggers it. Yes, you were right To be true, yeah.
Speaker 1:And so you get you know you get the double-edged sword of feeling more irritated but then being comforted by the fact that you have every right to be irritated.
Speaker 2:Yeah, that's right. Well, we want to feel right, don't we? And there's this interesting research that they've done I can't remember who the researcher was that everybody assumes that there's a group project, that they're doing more Like. Everybody thinks they are carrying the bulk of the work.
Speaker 1:Yes.
Speaker 2:And in marriages it's very, very common for both partners to think that they are the one that does more.
Speaker 1:That's right. I know that you have a belief that I don't do as much tidying up as you do.
Speaker 2:Yeah, but that's just reality.
Speaker 1:Now hang on a second. No, it's reality. No, that's it, You're not going to put that on confirmation bias. Well, you said that we are.
Speaker 2:I'm going to get Harry in on this.
Speaker 1:Hang on. No, no, no. Harry, who's messy? Harry, who's the messy? Do you agree that maybe I'm not quite as messy as Annie thinks that I am, relative to how messy she is?
Speaker 2:Come on, Harry, I'm right.
Speaker 1:I'm right, maybe you're both as bad as each other. Oh, harry, that's it. That's what I was after. Harry, that's exactly what I was after.
Speaker 2:I'm looking for a new producer Because yes, exactly.
Speaker 1:You only see the wet towel on the bed on the rare occasion that I leave it there, but whenever you find a wet towel on the bed, it confirms your story that I always leave a wet towel on the bed, which I don't. Yeah, it's a lot, though it's a lot of times, less than you know relative to the amount of times I use a towel.
Speaker 2:Possibly that's right. So what the researcher is suggesting that you do the researcher, sorry Harry, to drag you into that, you don't care what the researcher is suggesting that you do is actually literally put yourself into their shoes for the day. Like what is it that they like if you're in a workplace and you just assume you're the one actually, for that day, watch everything that they do. Maybe it will confirm that they're lazy and actually they are feckless, or maybe it will confirm that the idea is. And, of course, we're so exquisitely involved in our own internal reality.
Speaker 2:We're just much more aware of what we do as opposed to anybody else. So, yeah, it's very interesting research about group projects, because I know both our children complained endlessly and I think it was probably right, though Maybe it wasn't. Maybe it wasn't right. Confirmation bias, maybe.
Speaker 1:I mean, you know the rabbit holes are plenty that one could go down. Really, just suggest a principle of you know. Try to retain some humility and perspective. And when you're quick to judgment about somebody, be it a work colleague, you know, be it a political candidate, a person on the street, a person on the street or your partner, or your intimate partner.
Speaker 2:Yeah.
Speaker 1:If you start to notice that there's a repetitive story about, they are always like this yeah, yeah. And that's probably a good cue for you to just, you know, slow it down. Yeah, ask yourself what is the you know what's?
Speaker 2:the actual evidence of that and that could also be in the positive in terms of women getting them themselves into relationships where there's coercion and control yeah and I want to be really, really clear about that. If you are highly, highly motivated and in a romantic relationship with someone and you are highly motivated to believe that this is the one, and it's amazing, um, you are going to discount the red flags.
Speaker 2:That's what we do yeah so, um, it's, it's a matter of actually looking with uh, with clear eyes at the behavior of the other person. You know, if they're ringing you three times a night when you're out with friends, just to see how you are, that is not a sign of caring, that is a sign of control.
Speaker 1:Yeah, and I've got to tell you that it's actually not that difficult, I think, for someone who is exerting coercion and control, to articulate a higher purpose for it. It's that idea of listen. This is a dangerous place.
Speaker 2:And I want to keep you safe.
Speaker 1:And I'm only doing this to keep you safe.
Speaker 2:Yeah, yeah, absolutely, absolutely.
Speaker 1:And it can be delivered with the same kind of conviction. You know, listen, you're a danger to yourself. You know you're an easy mark.
Speaker 2:You know you're so suggestible and also you're so beautiful. You're so beautiful. Men are going to be looking at you. You're so suggestible.
Speaker 1:You know, so you know. Look, what do you want me to do?
Speaker 2:You know you want me to you, to this wild world that we live in. No, I want to keep you safe, and there is so much of this uber masculinity in the zeitgeist at the moment that we have to be very, very careful about it. It is not protection, it is control. I'm going to play you an excerpt from my second book, why Smart Women Buy the Lies In this segment. Kat and Mrs Kovacic both come to their own conclusions as to who's at fault. In the argument, kat decides it's Alec, the husband's fault, because she doesn't like him and thinks he's had an affair, and Mrs Kovacic thinks it's further proof that there's a curse on the building. Mrs Kovacic thinks it's further proof that there's a curse on the building. A really, really good example of confirmation bias coming to conclusions based on what you already think. If you want to know the real story, then you'll just have to read the book.
Speaker 2:You are making a risotto. You resent the constant stirring but feel it shows commitment to your relationship with Michael. You become aware of raised voices from above. A door slams, causing Susan to pause her kitchen benchtop ablutions and crane her neck towards the ceiling. The window above yours opens with a screech. You hear Charlotte's voice. I want to know who this woman is. A door slams Alec, I want to know. You can't make out the words in Alec's grumbling reply. You widen your eyes at porridge. That doesn't sound good. I hope Charlotte's okay. She must be near the window. Her voice is crystal clear. I deserve to know the truth. Then Alec's voice.
Speaker 1:No, no, I am not talking to you about this.
Speaker 2:The window slams shut. Porridge growls. The angry dialogue continues muted. Now you abandon your risotto and cross to the front door, opening it to the landing just slightly. Mrs Kovacic's door is also ajar. Her eye appears in the crack. Porridge noses your door open. Mrs Kvarchik, you whisper. Doesn't sound good. She opens her door wider.
Speaker 2:No the handsome nephew, I think, is up to no good. Porridge forces himself past your legs and trots to the base of the stairs leading up to Mrs Hume's flat. He puts one paw on the bottom step and growls Porridge, uh-uh, come here, come here. He climbs another step. You are beset with indecision. Should you be striding up the stairs and knocking firmly on their door, or returning to your flat and pretending you were working with a headset on and heard nothing? If you knocked on their door, you can imply you were there in an official capacity. You could say Mr Sanderson had put you in charge of investigating disturbances in the flats. You hear another volley of angry shouts. Porridge barks and climbs another step. Mrs Kovacic opens her door further and looks up the staircase Guess, in full swing.
Speaker 1:she whispers staircase.
Speaker 2:Yes, in full swing. She whispers. Porridge, come here. You say more forcefully. Now he climbs another step. You skirt across the landing. He takes this as permission to advance up the entire staircase. You lunge for his collar and manage to hook it with a single finger. You're trying to yank him back down the stairs.
Speaker 2:When Mrs Hume's door opens, charlotte emerges. Tears streaming down her face. You barely recognise her. Her hair is askew and you can see the grey roots. She's wearing a stained t-shirt that says Believe. She's barefoot and her left ankle is heavily tattooed. Alec appears behind her. Come back inside, charlotte.
Speaker 2:It's clear this exchange is not intended to be public, so you try and make it look like you've chosen that spot on the stairs to check porridge for ticks. Charlotte turns to Alec and throws something at him. A ball of paper bounces off the doorframe. Porridge thinks it's a game of fetch and strains to free himself from your single-finger grip. You're about to lose him. When Charlotte leans forward like a swimmer on the starting blocks, clenches her fists at her side and screams, the sound reverberates round the landing. Porridge cowers, you put your hand to your throat, come inside.
Speaker 2:Alex says again. She looks at you or through you. Then careers down the stairs. You and Porridge spring to the side, but you're not quick enough. She smacks into your shoulder hard. But you're not quick enough. She smacks into your shoulder hard, spinning you into the banister Without apology. She continues across the landing and down the next flight of stairs.
Speaker 2:You hear the bang of the foyer door. You look at Mrs Kovacic who is now standing outside her door, her hand across her mouth. There is a disturbing and profound silence. You can hear your breathing in your ears. You don't know if you should go after Charlotte. Why isn't Alec following her? It's a chilly winter evening. She has no shoes.
Speaker 2:You look up at Alec who is still standing at the top of the stairs. Cat, he says Porridge growls. You instinctively move down a step, pulling porridge with you. Alec also comes down a step. Don't get involved in this. The harsh overhead light casts a shadow across his good looks. He's wearing all black. His hair is black. It could be a painting Woman and dog on stairs with man above Oil on canvas. What do you mean? I mean don't get involved. Mrs Kovacic steps forward. You don't scare us, mr Alexei. She says. You clench and unclench your hands. He looks at both of you for a couple of seconds, puts his hands in his pockets and shakes his head. He turns around and goes back into the flat Porridge, pads up the stairs after him. Did he just threaten me? You ask If Mr.
Speaker 1:Kovacic's not in a chair, I get him to go upstairs and punch him.
Speaker 2:Charlotte mentioned a woman. Maybe he's having an affair Mrs Kovacic tuts.
Speaker 1:On top of everything else, he's also a philanthropist, what you just say. He has an affair. A philander.
Speaker 2:He's also a philanthropist what you just say. He has an affair. A philanderer, not a philanthropist. You sigh and look up the stairwell. Porridge is returning from his recon. The paper ball is in his mouth. What is it, porridge?
Speaker 2:Porridge ducks under your hands and disappears into your flat. Poor Charlotte, says Mrs Kovacic. Poor poor Charlotte. You touch her on the shoulder. Yes, like volcano. Now you go back into your flat and close the door behind you. You lean on it. Your hands are shaking. You pick up your phone and dial Charlotte's number. It goes to voicemail. Charlotte, are you okay? Call me. Porridge has finished with the paper ball and is chewing on a plastic penguin, now untroubled by the drama on the stairs. You wish you were a dog. Poor Charlotte, you say Mmm. The plot thickens. Is it Alec or is it Charlotte? Who's actually at fault? Or is it the curse, as Mrs Kovacic seems to think? It is. As I said at the beginning of this, if you want to know, you have to read the book why Smart Women Buy the Lies. Here we go back to the interview. I think you talked a lot. Did you think you talked more than me just then, or not?
Speaker 1:That's confirmation bias. I did tell a couple of long stories there. They were good ones, though. I thought that's why you invited me to come and talk.
Speaker 2:Yeah, it was, it's good. So what we're going to do is we're going, because in both my books there's examples of confirmation bias and I'd like to thank my friend I won't say who it was that um that actually looked at her behavior and decided that um, no, there was something in the notion of confirmation bias, and has done something about it. Because to actually look at the way we are in the world and the way we think and the way we feel and apply a critical eye to it is really hard Because, to your point, we always feel right. Whatever I'm feeling, that feeling I think is valid. It always feels valid and you want to make it valid. That's right.
Speaker 2:You know, you wake up with a feeling in the morning and you feel, I don't know, unhappy, or you feel anxious, or you feel unsettled, or you feel disconcerted. So you wake up in the morning and you wake up with a feeling. I often do. I wake up in the morning with a feeling. I might feel anxious, I might feel anxious, I might feel worried, some people might feel depressed or they might feel disconcerted or whatever, and then what you simply do is you go out in the world and you look for somewhere to hang the feeling. So you've got the feeling, and let's call it the red dress, and you put it on and then you go. No, you don't put it on, you go about hanging on to it until you can find a hanger. And we all do it. None of us, none of us, escape this life without falling into a sea of cognitive biases. Yep, you may have the last word. Go on.
Speaker 1:Well, I don't know whether this is too much Is it about yo-yo. It's not about yo-yo, but I was just thinking about a story that unfolded on the other side of the Pacific, where, in an election campaign, oh yes, what is this election campaign you speak of, dave?
Speaker 1:What is this election campaign you speak of, david? Look, they were actually reported that there were a couple of attempts on the life of one of the candidates and so a certain section of the population wanted very much for this candidate to be the right candidate and the fact that that candidate survived those reported assassination attempts. The rationale was that God had a special plan for him.
Speaker 2:Oh yeah, yeah, yeah, true, true, true, true, true, true, true.
Speaker 1:And I mean, you know, if God has a special plan for the candidate, then surely he's the right candidate for yeah, he saved him.
Speaker 2:Yeah, he saved him, yeah, he saved him for that reason.
Speaker 1:So you know, there's Perfect, perfect confirmation bias. Confirmation bias that the desire to vote in a certain direction. Well, you know, if God wants to save him, then it must be right.
Speaker 2:And that really does just. That is like confirmation writ large the fact that no matter what Trump does, no matter what he does, it's just, it is absolutely discounted and everything is put through the filter of he is going to make America great again. And it's astonishing to watch so many you know millions and millions of people that are just in the thrall of massive confirmation, bias and motivated reasoning. It's true.
Speaker 1:Well, didn't the stock market? You know, bounce back.
Speaker 2:Oh, so it must be right.
Speaker 1:Must be fine, must be the right thing to do you know.
Speaker 2:The other thing is, of course, the conspiracy theorists that believe because I I follow them, as you know, it's a lot of them and um that believe that every cloud in the sky is because the, the government, or the government, as they call it is doing something poisoning us through the clouds oh, the chemtrails the chemtrails.
Speaker 2:So they're constantly posting things um with perfectly innocuous looking clouds in the sky. Obviously they never studied science at school. And these clouds are portentous because what's happening is they're getting poisoned by the government. Yep, it's chemtrails and the pilots are complicit, apparently that fly the planes, and RFK is going to do something about it, which is greatfk is going to do something about it, which is great, but the thing is going to do something about the chem trials apparently yeah so apparently yeah so, and the thing is that then they get sick, right, the conspiracy theorists, and clearly they've all had covid, but they don't believe in covid, right?
Speaker 2:so chem trials so it's the chem trials. So confirmation bias kicks in. They don't believe in COVID. They've got COVID symptoms, including loss of taste and also, you know, really quite serious. But it's the chemtrails and the pilots and everyone's complicit, so it's just classic. So you cannot believe in a conspiracy theory, and once you believe in one conspiracy theory, you're more likely to believe in heaps of them. Like the Queen's, a cannibal, don't even. Anyway. So well she was. Well she's no longer with us, but apparently yeah, and a lizard. There's a lot of lizard people out there.
Speaker 1:That's how she lived so long, I think.
Speaker 2:That's right. So on that weird note, on that note, thank you very much, David, for giving me your time. Thank you, Harry, for involving yourself in marital disputes. Very brave of you.
Speaker 1:Yeah, thank you, Harry. Thank you, Harry. Good answer.
Speaker 2:Even though you could have backed me. And thank you, yo-yo, for your farting company today. You's a good girl. You're a good girl. I wish you could see her listeners. She's very black and adorable.
Speaker 1:Picture really mad eyes.
Speaker 2:And here on the northern beaches in Sydney, australia, it's just beginning to cool down, so it's mid-April and it's been a very, very hot summer, but it's beautiful today, isn't it? It's lovely. I hope, wherever you are in the world, you're having a lovely day and we'll talk next week. See you later. Bye, as of this week, we're going to release a weekly subscriber episode. Um, it's going to be David and myself discussing all things relationship. So if you're navigating a relationship and would like to know how we've managed to stay together for over 30 years I was a child bride then please tune in. Thanks for tuning into why Smart Women with me, annie McCubbin. I hope today's episode has ignited your curiosity and left you feeling inspired by my anti-motivational style.
Speaker 2:Join me next time as we continue to unravel the fascinating layers of our brains and develop ways to sort out the fact from the fiction and the over 6,000 thoughts we have in the course of every day. Remember, intelligence isn't enough. You can be as smart as paint, but it's not just about what you know, it's about how you think. And in all this talk of whether or not you can trust your gut if you ever feel unsafe, whether it's in the street, at work, in a car park, in a bar or in your own home. Please, please, respect that gut feeling. Staying safe needs to be our primary objective. We can build better lives, but we have to stay safe to do that.
Speaker 2:And don't forget to subscribe, rate and review the podcast and share it with your fellow smart women and allies. Together, we're hopefully reshaping the narrative around women and making better decisions. So until next time, stay sharp, stay savvy and keep your critical thinking hat shiny. This is Annie McCubbin signing off from why Smart Women See you later. This episode was produced by Harrison Hess. It was executive produced and written by me, annie McCubbin. The actors reading that excerpt from the book were Odile Leclasio, paul Goddard, georgie Parker, deborah Galanos and, of course, me and writer McCubbin, the gigantic groodle.
