Fundamental Analysis is BULLSH*T!

In this episode we break down why fundamental analysis is mostly useless for traders and why so many traders rely on it for the wrong reasons. Most traders are taking 2:1 or 3:1 risk-to-reward trades, which means predicting the economy or reading news headlines isn’t what determines profitability. What actually matters is risk management, positioning, and understanding how price moves around key levels.

We talk about why market narratives constantly change, why news rarely gives precise entries, and why price often reacts at technical areas like supply and demand zones regardless of the fundamental story. If you’ve ever wondered why traders obsess over news while still losing money, this episode explains what really drives consistent trading results.

Transcript

SPEAKER_00 0:00

Welcome back to another episode of the Stoic Trading Psychology podcast. I'm going to be trying to do more of these podcasts. I'm going to try to do one a week. So make sure you guys hold me accountable to that as I'm getting a lot of positive feedback on these podcasts. If you guys don't know who I am, I am FX Telepath. I have a YouTube channel called FX Telepath. Check it out if you're finding me through podcasts. I do weekly forecasts every single Saturday so you guys can follow along with my analysis instead of hindsight, PL, um, fake guru crap. There's none of that on my channel. It's straight up trading. I don't show my face, I don't show my cars, nobody knows what cars I drive, nobody knows how much money I make. It's all there for you guys to see. Predictions before they take place. That is a beautiful thing about my channel. I hope everybody's doing well. This episode will certainly be a little bit controversial. I've been meaning to do this episode for quite a while now, and the topic is fundamental analysis. And in my opinion, fundamental analysis is completely bull, you know what I'm talking about. It does not matter, but it does matter at the same time. It's a little bit confusing, and I'm here to explain my thought process on why I think fundamentals don't matter for your trading. Before we begin, let me be extremely clear. I personally think fundamentals actually move the market. Obviously. If everything is bearish on the dollar, fundamental-wise, whatever, jobs, inflation, all that stuff, the dollar's most likely going to go down. But what people get confused is how do you trade that? And there's so many things to consider here. I don't even really know where to begin. So I don't really think about these podcasts beforehand and write down what I'm going to say. I do have some talking points written out, but I'm just going to go off the cuff here because this is something I'm very passionate about. Because in the last year, I have seen an influx of comments on my channel. Oh, you're not taking into fundamentals. Oh, the dollar's bullish. Literally, go watch my forecasts for the past, I don't know, six months, or really all of 2025, and you'll see I was talking about a monthly demand and a weekly demand on the DXY, which is the US dollar index. I've been talking about this demand zone on the monthly and the weekly time frame on the dollar, saying so. Basically, every time we came back into that demand zone, I was talking about how I was bullish on the dollar. And we saw price react from that demand zone to the upside literally three times. And we are seeing a move right now. That's the time of the recording is March 16th, 2026. We are seeing a move off of that US dollar demand zone on the monthly chart and the weekly chart again. And every time, so price came back into that weekly demand three times. And ever literally every time price came back to that weekly zone. I had a comment on my my forecast saying, well, you're buying the dollar, why would you buy the dollar? It's so the fundamentals are so negative for the US dollar. And maybe they were, but how do we trade that? The reason that fundamental analysis is such BS is because, sure, maybe pri maybe the US dollar is bullish. And let's just say it is so bullish that I'm just gonna use round hole numbers to make it very clear. Let's just say the US dollar is bullish, so that means we're gonna see a move from 100 to 200. Let's just use I know that's not the right numbers, but let's just use those just to make everything very simple. Or we're gonna get from point A to point C. Not point B, point A to point C. Okay, fair enough. Maybe the fundamentals are saying that, and I will agree just for the sake of the argument. But that doesn't mean when we go from point A and we start to cross to point B, price could easily turn around. Just because the fundamentals are positive on the on the dollar, and and which means let's just say guaranteed, guaranteed 100,000 percent price is gonna go from 100 to 3 to 300 or point A to point C. That doesn't mean we're not gonna hesitate at point B or at 200. The price could easily hit 200 and drop and then go up. How many times have you ever looked at a chart and price just goes straight up? Like there's no turnaround at all. Almost never. Okay, fine. Crude oil the past couple weeks has been pretty crazy. It literally shot up almost, I think it was like almost 50% in like two days. Fair enough. That is some crazy times because of the Israel-Iran war. Fair enough. But typically, if the dollar is bullish and the dollar's going to be bullish for an entire month, do you honestly think that you won't be able to get some US dollar short trades? No, you definitely will. And the reason that fundamental analysis is getting so popular now, you're seeing all your favorite trading gurus talk about fundamental analysis now, is because if you go on Google Trends, you type in fundamental analysis, I'm looking at it right now. I know this is an audio podcast. Wish I could do visuals sometimes, but there is a massive spike starting in basically in the in the late summer of 2025, a massive spike in search results, basically over a 300% spike in search results for fundamental analysis. And basically, all of these YouTubers they use these trends. Even I'm a YouTuber myself, so on YouTube in our analytics, there are trends, they show you the trends of what people are searching for and stuff, and fundamental analysis has started a trend. And that is why all of a sudden, your favorite trading guru absolutely needs to use fundamentals. And if you're not using fundamental analysis, you don't have an edge. But which is funny because their whole channel, the entire time, they've been trading just technical analysis, doing just fine, apparently. And then all of a sudden, since the search results have a spike, all of a sudden, oh, you need fundamental analysis. It's complete and utter BS. They are just using the spike in search results to get views, to get people to click because they know that they're searching for it. It is the scummiest marketing tactic ever. That kind of stuff right there. You know, I will admit, there are some things where price is spiking, where it's like, oh, maybe I should do a video on that, right? Like, but it's got to be related to me. Like, I'm not just if if um I don't even know, the SMC trading starts to get really popular next year, I'm not gonna do videos on that because I don't use that. I just because fundamental analysis started spiking, I start I started to see it spike in my YouTube analytics, and I I don't use it. I never have. So I'm not gonna make videos on it. It's really that simple. I'm all I'm trying to be honest here. If I used it, I would promote it. But I don't, so I'm not, and that is the reality. Is this a it's it's a it's been a popular search term, and I think the reason it's becoming more popular is it started to get more popular the search term fundamental analysis when Donald Trump started to do all the tariffs. When all the tariffs started to come into play, all of a sudden the search results the search results for fundamental analysis started to go huge because people are trying to get they're trying to catch that crazy move, they're trying to catch the right side of the move and and spike up. And that is really stupid. If you're trying to predict economic data or economic events, you're gonna get hammered. I promise you that. Promise, promise, promise you that you will get hammered. And that's the reality. You don't need fundamental analysis. One big reason you don't need fundamental analysis is because of the term priced in. I talked about it a little bit on the last podcast, priced in. The insiders are already pricing in the narratives. 100% price already reflects the fundamentals, institutions price in interest rates, uh, economic expectations, geopolitical news, long before we are reading about it. I promise you. Literally, think about that. If fundamentals really work for trading, everybody reading the same news would win. You'd be like, oh, oh, um, Trump or Israel did this to Iran. That's bullish for the dollar. Boom, we all buy, we all become rich. Let's end homelessness, everybody. We could just read a news uh article, and then we're good. It is complete and utter BS. And before I move on even more, I every Sunday in the in the Sunday Zoom or in the Sunday meeting, sorry, in the Sunday forecast, uh, I do talk about fundamentals very quickly. But the only thing I'm pointing out, it is for day traders. We go over, we go to forexfactory.com, we click the red folder news for the week, and we are identifying when the red folder news is coming out. The reason we do that is so that you're not caught in the storm essentially. It's kind of like waiting out the storm, it's kind of like you know that there's a bunch of you're gonna you want to go on a walk and you look at the weather app and you identify, oh, at 8 o'clock it's gonna storm until 8 30. So are you gonna go for a walk at 8 15? No.

unknown 9:28

Right?

SPEAKER_00 9:28

If you are gonna go start, are you gonna start your walk at 8 a.m.? No, you're not. It's the same thing with the with the red folder economic data. If you are a day trader, you need to understand when that economic data is coming out. That's what I talk about every Sunday. I just quickly, at the start of the forecast, I go over all the red folder data and I tell people if you are day trading, you have to be mindful of that data to come out. So, for example, let's say at 8 a.m. CPI is coming out for the US dollar, the consumer price index, that's an inflationary number. That will affect the price of the dollar 100%. Again, let me be clear fundamental analysis fundamentals, economic data will move the market 100%. But we don't, we're not trying to predict that. Nobody is predicting the CPI or whatever. And like, let's say you could predict the CPI. Let's just say you could 100%. It doesn't mean that price is not gonna spike in the in the opposite direction. The banks, the big players could have other expectations. Maybe it's reasonable to expect, you know, during co uh, I don't want to say the word, but during C19, the big sickness in 2020, I remember there was very blatantly odd, like obviously the job numbers were gonna be bad because everybody was losing their job. Everybody knew that. Do you think it was as easy as just shorting the rate as the job numbers came out? No, it was not. It's not that easy. A good thing to ask yourself is, and once as I get older here in my in life, and just in real life, the the one of the best pieces of advice that I've ever read is if it's too good to be true, it probably is. And if it's too good to be true, there's probably some other factors that you know we're not considering. That is so true when it comes to trading. If it's too good to be true, if it's just like obviously everybody's losing their jobs because of the whole sickness in 2020. Well, it's short. No, it doesn't work like that. That's stupid. And you need to identify that that is not how the markets work. Sam Siden is the founder of supply and demand trading. I trade supply and demand zones. He is the founder of the methodology. One of his greatest quotes was trade what is real, not what you feel. When trade and that's the beautiful thing about supply and demand zones, and understanding that fundamentals, you're not going to trade off of fundamentals. Because you can identify without fundamentals where the banks are buying. Because you can identify those explosive candles, and I've talked about this so many times. It is objective reality when you see an explosive candle to the upside, it is completely objective reality that banks and institutions were buying there because people like me and you, I don't have the account size, you don't have the account size to move the market like that at all. So it is object, it is an objective fact that you can identify where they are buying and where they are selling on a price chart by looking at the candles, by trading what is real, not what you feel. And don't get me wrong, it's not a holy grail because yeah, they've bought there before. So let's say price is basing at$100 to$102 for like a couple days, and then all of a sudden, boom, a big spike up to$110. You will see that on a chart, you will see a massive candle on the chart. And what we do as supply and demand traders is we wrap our lines around 100 and 102, because that is where the banks were buying before price shut up, and then when price shot up, buyers clearly exceeded sellers so much that price shot up to 110 in one big candle. But that doesn't mean that that they're gonna buy there again. So it's not a holy grail. If it was, we I would be a multi-trillionaire. We are going to lose, but it is stacking the odds in our favor by identifying when these where these big moves are taking place and where the banks are buying, not predicting what the CPI is, not looking at bogus economic stuff where it's like it's maybe it's bullish, but it doesn't mean we can't get a short trade. And I did a great long course on sent forget trading, supply and demand zones. And in that course, I talk about trade management and how not every trade is going to be the same risk to reward. That was one mistake I was making even like two years ago, where I thought I'd just be like every trade, like looking for a three to one, or four to one, or five to one, whatever I was kind of testing at the time. And it I was doing fine, but my my return, my results started to become much better when I could identify when to be aggressive with my trade management and when to be less aggressive with my trade management. I now have the ability to understand when I should go for a three-to-one to a five to one trade and when to just go for a quick one-to-one and not be greedy. For example, on gold, gold has been crazy lately because of the whole Israel-Iran thing. I don't want to say the W word, I don't know what YouTube thinks or what these apps think. I'm not trying to get banned. And I was pointing out a one-hour demand zone to the members in the daily market breakdown video, and I was talking about how it was a good trade, it's a decent zone. It could be good for a one-to-one. I wouldn't be getting greedy here on gold because of the volatility of gold. And literally three of them posted that trade. Look, they got a quick one-to-one off my zone, and because they paid attention, they listened, they didn't get greedy. And that is what separates a good trader from bad trader is understanding these situations when you can be aggressive, when to be non-aggressive with trade management. And again, maybe the fundamentals are saying that it's bullish on the dollar. So longs are favored, fair enough. But do you honestly think that the dollar will just go straight up to where it's where the fair price is based on those fundamentals? No, absolutely not. We will see moves to the upside, moves to the downside, and we can catch all those moves. I agree that trading with the trend is always going to be better. 100%. But typically, the fundamentals are gonna be somewhat bad maybe for the day as price is pulling back into a demand zone, and we're still I'm still gonna hop on that trade. And listen, look, I've been trading for six years without using fundamentals, fundamental analysis at all, and I'm doing just fine. I really don't think that there's some sort of secret edge when using fundamentals. Um but I will say this if you are looking for massive, massive risk reward trades, like 10 to 1, you're looking for crazy massive risk reward trades, you're basically an investor at that point, then I if you are gonna do that, then okay, fair enough. Learn about GDP, learn about earnings if you're trading stocks, interest rates, all that stuff. Fair enough. If you're holding, like there's people who I who are day trading or they're entering on a one-hour chart and they're talking about fundamentals, like really, it doesn't make if you're day trading a five-minute chart, or even entering on a one-hour chart, how how do fundamentals affect that? Because price doesn't just go straight up, it doesn't. We will see moves to the downside. It could like you know how many times it's economic data is coming out, or it's come out where it's super bearish on the dollar, we see maybe an initial spike down, but then for the rest of the day, we recover and we we fill the gap and we start to push up again. There's tons of money to be made there, and if there's a demand zone, I'm buying that. I don't care what the fundamentals say because I know that everybody's gonna be, oh, it's so negative, and I'm gonna be trading against them. So if you're swing trading one to one, two to one, three to one risk rewards, even five to one risk rewards, you don't need to use fundamental analysis. It's literally just a huge crazy trend right now because of Trump and all the stuff going on. Everybody wants to hop on the big move, everybody's tired of getting stopped out because of that volatility, and I understand, but that's that's the reality. News creates fundamental analysis, it creates volatility, doesn't really create a specific direction at all. For me to understand trend and direction of where price is going, I will literally use a trend line and my way of using and looking at trends. And again, if if fundamentals work for trading, everybody would just read the same news and like oh CPI down, equal good, and I buy now, and now everybody rich. It's stupid. Think about that, and then that's the reality too, is you don't know where to put your stop, right? Fundamentals don't give precise entries. A news narrative might say the US dollar should go up, but it doesn't tell you where to enter, where to put your stop, or where liquidity is at, or where to put your take profit. It doesn't, and the narrative will constantly change as well. One week inflation will matter, the next week job data does matter, then suddenly uh geopolitics matter, and the people who are chasing these narratives are always reacting late. That's the reality as well. So that's why I tell people understand when the fundamentals are coming out, don't predict them. Trade what is real. You can again you can identify on a price chart where the banks are buying. Nobody can sit there and I can pull up one of my demand zones, so I can take anybody on earth, I can pull up one of my demand zones, show the explosive move away, and I will ask them, Did buyers exceed sellers at this price area? And if they have a brain and eyes, they will say yes, because they will see that price shot up aggressively. And then my next question to them will be can retail traders like you and I make this move in the forex market or in the oil market or in the gold market? And if they have brains, if they have a brain, they will say no. So then who created that move? A bank or an institution, somebody with millions and millions of dollars, and we want to trade with them, not with the retail traders. It is that simple. And again, it might sound like I'm saying that supply and demand is a holy grail. Absolutely not. You will take losses 100%. There are supply and demand strategies. If you're looking for a larger risk reward, like one to five, you will literally lose more than you win. I promise you that. You can still make money though. That's what a lot of people don't understand. So I'm I'm kind of wrapping up this podcast because it's kind of just a big rant, but it's just I'm just sick of seeing this. It's like the newest fad in the in the trading industry. Before it was SMC or whatever, or ICT, now it's economic data, and you gotta learn the economic data. No, you don't. If you're gonna invest in a company, let's say you trade stocks and you're gonna invest in a company, fair enough. I mean, you should look at you should look at the CEO of the company. Is he buying shares or is he selling shares? Like, is he invested in the company? These are definitely things you need to consider for long-term investing, 100%. However, I've also I use a scanner for stocks, and I scan stocks that are at a massive decline, and I basically identify demand zones on a 12-month or a six-month chart, and I have done this so many times where I buy that demand zone, and this is gonna sound crazy. I haven't taken a loss yet. I've only done it about six, six, seven times, because it does take quite a while for price to come back to a 12-month or six-month demand zone. But I have done just that the concept of buying low. Haven't even looked at the company. Like at the fundamentals of the company. But that's maybe for another discussion. If you want me to talk about that, I will. We could talk about long-term investing. I don't really recommend that unless you know what you're doing. I also have ri I also have a risk system in play where I don't actually have a stop loss in these markets. I basically just buy enough shares where if it went to zero, I'm fine with it. And that has worked out beautifully for me. Just trade just looking at a level where it's like, okay, clearly buyers exceeded sellers here. We can't make those moves. The banks did. I'm buying where they bought before. Maybe they're gonna buy there again, maybe there's leftover buy orders, whatever. So you don't need fundamental analysis. I'm sick of seeing it. Uh, there's pr it's it's just another way for these trading gurus and furus, whatever you want to call them. To sell another course. And you know, full disclosure, I have a course, I have a membership. You guys probably know that by now, but I'm not just gonna oh fundamental trading course 101. What you need to what you need to learn fundamentals in order to trade. I could easily do that and probably make a bunch more money trading that because I can I can identify the Google trend of fundamental analysis and do that. And that's what everybody needs to start understanding is they are just hopping on a trend. And that to me is such a red flag. Um, especially like if if somebody was always using fundamental analysis, maybe they look at CPI and they study the CPI and they've identified this week based on this data, maybe it's better to be buying the dollar. If they've been doing that for the past five years and they have a channel for the past five years, and that's how they've always been trading, that's completely reasonable to me, and I don't think that's a red flag at all. But if somebody just all of a sudden this year, oh fundament you you don't use fundamentals, you don't have an edge. Completely BS. I would comp I would unsubscribe from that person and unfollow that person. It's it's crazy. The it's just but that's the reality of this industry is a lot of scummy people out there. Um we all know who they are. Unfortunately, they just keep um screwing people over. And the reality is all their channels they they make money off of all the newbies in trading. It'd be it's it's amazing how many people I've seen join my group, and they're like, I have spent thousands of dollars, I spent a thousand dollars, two thousand dollars on this person's membership, and you explain more in one Sunday meeting than they explain in their entire course, and I'm not surprised. It's crazy, and it makes me sick. You guys know I I hate these gurus, and okay, you can call me a guru if you want to. Fair enough. I have a channel, I have a course, whatever, but at least I post my I'm posting my forecasts before they take place. I'm not just posting PLs. I could easily create a PNL, I could easily show my PL, but I'm not gonna do that. So, anyways, it's been like a 25-minute rant. I hope you guys learned something here. Um, remember, fundamentals, that's for investors, that's for long-term trades. You're looking for a two-to-one trade, you're not you don't need fundamentals, you really don't. I promise you that. All you need to understand is when the news is coming out, that's important. And again, let me let me reemphasize that fundamentals will drive price, but it doesn't mean that price is is just gonna go from point A to point C. We're gonna go to from point A to point B, most likely drop, dip, where we can then buy the dip, or even short at point B, short at 200, whatever whatever you want to use to just try to create example in my head. I wish I could show you guys in a chart, but it doesn't mean that price is gonna go from point A to point C immediately. If it did, we would all be rich because we just read that headline and boom, we're buying. It's not reality, it's not reality at all. So remember, if you see these guys on here all of a sudden talking about fundamental analysis, they're just hopping on a trend. It is just marketing BS. But again, if if it if this person has always used fundamental and their now fundamental analysis and their overall analysis, fair enough. I have nothing wrong with that. Um, I am not targeting those people at all. I really don't know anybody like that. I'm not targeting those people at all. So if you're a day trader, understand when the red folder news is coming out. Go to forexfactory.com and then look at the time, and then for example, let's say the neck economic data is coming out at 8 a.m. I would hold off on trading until after 8.15. Wait for that spike to take place, because it will spike. And and notice notice this as well. Let's say it does spike. Look at the data, look at what came out, identify if it is positive. Let's just say the date the data came out and it's positive where price should spike to the upside. Do you honestly think it's always gonna spike to the upside? No, it's gonna spike to the downside. Maybe the algorithms I've have identified that there are a bunch of stop losses below a certain low, and they're gonna spike them out first and then shoot up. That's why we need to trade what is real. That's why supply and demand trading is so relevant and so objective, and in my opinion, it is the best trading strategy because it's so objective. Where maybe, and again, that doesn't mean that if you trade chart patterns or indicators or whatever, I'm sure there's uh people trading that profitably. I'm not denying that. But uh a triangle pattern doesn't really move the market, the banks move the market, and we can identify in a price chart where the banks are buying and selling. And you hopefully I explained that good enough in this uh in this podcast. Again, I wish this was a visual podcast because it would help a little bit, but um, I hope you guys learned a lot in this podcast. Um, I know it's controversial based off the comments I've been getting, and you don't trade fundamentals, what you idiot? And it's like, yeah, you're just you're just a victim to uh trading guru marketing because of a spike in in uh in search results. It's hilarious. So you don't need it. If if you're gonna be a if you're gonna be an investor, you're gonna learn about companies, fair enough. Look into their earnings, look into the in the GDP of the country, you're you're you're looking to invest in a currency, fair enough. But you also need to consider the chart as well. Trade what is real. Do you think that when price, let's say, let's last, last but not least here, do you think let's just say there's a monthly demand zone and price is dipping significantly. Do you honestly think that the news that the fundamentals are gonna be good as we dip into that that monthly zone? Probably not. Probably not. But we're still gonna buy at that zone because we're looking for two to one, three to one trades here. We're not looking for 15, 20 to 1 trades. And if you're doing that, fair enough. Look at the data, look at the look at the CPI, all that stuff. Fair enough. Come up. I don't even know how to look at all that and what to think about all that. I really don't. Because I'm not looking for 15 to 1 trades. I'm looking to get in and I'm looking to get out. Once you get above 5 to 1 risk reward, pushing towards a 10 to 1, which I don't even recommend because nobody can really handle those losses, because you're gonna lose more. There's no there's a pros and cons to everything. If you're looking for massive risk rewards, you're gonna you're gonna lose more trades. It's it's that simple. So hopefully you guys learned a lot. Let me know what you thought about this podcast. What do you guys think about fundamental analysis? Is it BS? And it's it's kind of a it is kind of a clickbaity title because it's not BS. It does move the market, but it's BS if you're looking for a two to one, three to one risk reward, which is what I see these people trading for. There are literally these gurus day trading, a five-minute, one-minute time frame. They're scalpers and they're talking about fundamentals. It is just hilarious. So, anyways, that's gonna wrap it up. Hope you guys enjoyed this podcast. Make sure you guys check out my YouTube channel at FX Telepath. Follow along with my weekly forecast. Don't just take my word for it. Watch my forecast. Go back, look at the predictions that I've been making. Again, that US dollar monthly demand zone, weekly demand zone I've been talking about. We have seen literally, I'm looking at it right now, one, two, three reactions off of the zone, and we are finally going to where I was talking about. And again, every time we came back into that weekly zone, I had a person commenting on my forecast. You you complete moron. The US dollar is weak. Why would you buy? And they probably lost every single trade that they took trying to short the dollar because the fundamentals or whatever. It's funny. So hope you guys learned a lot. Try to keep it real here, try to keep it as honest as possible. If you guys appreciate that, give me a five-star review on this podcast. Um, subscribe to the YouTube channel as well, FX Telepath, Stoic Trading Psychology Podcast. Hope you guys have a great day. Hoping to do more of these podcasts. I will take any recommendations as well. So leave them in the comments if you want recommendations, if you want to leave me a recommendation for a podcast topic. Alright, guys, take care. See you in the next one.