Tensions Transplanted
Tensions Transplanted – Season 2: As Australia heads into one of the tightest federal elections on record, The Jewish Independent investigates the rising impact of antisemitism and racism in political discourse. Hosted by podcaster and radio producer Rob Kaldor, this season features in-depth analysis from journalists and expert contributors, offering sharp insights into how these tensions are shaping public debate and policy.
Tensions Transplanted
Season 2 - Episode 4 - The Muslim Vote
In Episode 4 of Tensions Transplanted, Rob Kaldor explores how The Muslim Vote could influence the upcoming federal election. He’s joined by Dr Josh Roose from Deakin University to unpack key marginal electorates, the rising political engagement among Muslim Australians, and the emerging — and sometimes uneasy — alliances with the Greens. Together, they consider how the ongoing Israel-Gaza conflict is shaping political discourse in the lead-up to election day.
📖 Read Dr Josh Roose’s articles and more election coverage.
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This podcast has been produced on the traditional lands of the Gadigal and Bidjigal peoples. Coming up on this episode of Tensions Transplanted.
SPEAKER_04:Because the Australian Muslim population as it stands is at 3%. A decade ago, it was at 2.2%. So we're seeing exponential growth, and it will only get more influential as future elections evolve. You've seen this marriage of convenience between the hard left and a more Islamist profile to some of these activists. I think wider Australia, to some extent, is not only fed up with anti-Semitism, but it's fed up with people bringing overseas conflicts here to Australia.
SPEAKER_05:I'm Rob Caldor, and this is Tensions Transplanted, brought to you by The Jewish Independent. This is Series 2, where I explore the upcoming federal election and its potential impact on the Australian Jewish community. This is the penultimate episode. If you haven't listened to the previous series or episodes 1 to 3 of this series, they're on Apple, Spotify, wherever you imbibe your audio. This episode is about the potential impact of the Muslim vote in the upcoming election. There are various seats that the teal-styled, inspired organisation The Muslim Vote is targeting. Whereas the Teals targeted Liberal seats, Muslim votes have a different target. Their convener Sheikh Wasam Shaqarwi explains.
SPEAKER_07:Part of the principle going forward was always to put Labor last.
SPEAKER_05:With Labor the target, the battleground has been slick social media campaigns.
SPEAKER_08:Muslim voters have been taken for granted due to absolute loyalty. Our concerns are ignored. And the Gaza genocide has shown how little our voices matter.
SPEAKER_05:And the Muslim vote is encouraging strategic voting.
SPEAKER_08:By voting as a bloc, we can shape elections. Over 20 seats have a Muslim population larger than the current MP's winning margin. And guess what? The past three governments have won by just one seat margin.
SPEAKER_02:And here's where it gets interesting. Australia uses preferential voting for the House of Representatives. That means the order we rank candidates matters. It's not just about who we vote for first, it's about how we shape these preferences. So we're not telling people who to vote for, we're showing them how to make their vote count for maximum impact.
SPEAKER_06:The opportunity is right in front of us. If we come together, we can make sure our community's voice is heard and respected at the national level.
SPEAKER_01:That's powerful. Imagine the ripple effect if we all take this seriously. It's time to show them what we're capable of.
SPEAKER_05:And to be clear, this is not just about local representation.
SPEAKER_09:Criticise Israel? They call you anti-Semitic. How much more do you need to take action?
SPEAKER_05:So to tell me more about the Muslim vote in the upcoming election, I have Dr Josh Roos, Associate Professor of Politics at Deakin University and current President of the Australian Association for the Study of Religion, for his take. I start by asking Josh, what are some of the seats the Muslim vote are targeting?
SPEAKER_04:We're talking Wills, which is a particular, it's a Labor-held seat. That's being challenged by the former leader of the Victorian Greens, Samantha Ratnam. A lot of work has been done there to mobilise the pro-Palestinian vote there amongst Muslim communities. We're talking the seat of Hume, which is being vacated, where there is a sitting member whose Labor has been replaced by a young Palestinian-Australian man. But there was also... a Muslim independent running, as well as the Greens. We're talking, there is another couple of seats as well, you know, where it could be coming to play. Then we head out to Western Sydney. So we're talking a seat of Blacksland, which is Jason Clare's seat. We're talking Tony Burke in Watson. These are areas of really high concentration of Muslim Australians, not so high that they constitute a majority. We're talking about 35%, up to 40% in some areas. But we're talking an attempt to mobilise that vote as a voting bloc by groups like the Muslim Vote, Muslim Boats Matter and so on, where there's been, for the first time in this particular election, a really concerted push to, obviously, in the context of a backlash against the Labor Party and the Liberal Party, about their support for Israel. There's been a push by some activists in those seats, working in concert at times with the Greens.
SPEAKER_05:This attempt to mobilize Muslim voters Has it been going for a while, or would you say Fatima Payman breaking ranks with Labor over their stance on Palestine was the tipping point?
SPEAKER_04:No, not at all. The Australian Muslim population now, we're talking in terms of migration, we're into our second, third, in some cases potentially even fourth generation. And so we're talking a period of 40 years, 50 years plus in terms of a larger population of Australians. And so for decades there's been talk about Muslim political parties and so on. However, the conflict in Gaza has been a catalyst for that mobilisation where activists, and they are a very small amount of highly educated professionals or activists, have been seeking to mobilise. At times they work in concert with the Greens, but there's also an inherent disconnect between Greens' more progressive policies around, for example, drug use, legalisation of different offences related to that,
SPEAKER_05:And sexuality, I'd imagine, as well. Yeah, correct, yep. Has there been any polling or anything around the intentions of Muslim voters?
SPEAKER_04:There may well be, but it's very difficult to poll specifically Muslim voters because the diversity of Australian Muslim communities. For some people, it's at the fore of their identity. For others, it's much like being a cultural Catholic or a cultural Christian or culturally Jewish. It might not be front and mind. when they make their decisions in daily life. And they might not even be contactable to that extent. It's much like if you wanted to contact active Christians, you would go through a church. If you wanted to contact cultural Christians, you've really got very little chance of reaching them in a really methodical manner. So to that extent, any polls that have been done are going to be more likely to be local polls in those seats. And they do show, and recent votes show, that those, whilst on reasonable margins, I think we're talking in some cases 5%, 10%. That's not now, in this day and age, unprecedented for seats with that sort of percentage to fall.
SPEAKER_05:And when we're talking about fall, are we talking only about Labor seats that are being affected by these organizations that are trying to galvanize the Muslim vote?
SPEAKER_04:It is more so Labor seats because that's the concentration. Historically working class. And what we've seen is like any other community, most communities that come here from Lebanon, Turkey, South Asia, other places in the Middle East as well, come and settled and then stayed in place. And as they've stayed in place and own their own houses, in the context of the house prices and everything else, they've become quite settled and somewhat wealthy in some areas. And so you're talking Victoria, Iranian concentration around Doncaster. could come into play, particularly around a seat that used to be quite safe liberal in Menzies is now much more marginal there. But we're talking hypotheticals unless we are able to really dig into keys. And that's the challenge not just faced in understanding it, but by the actual political parties themselves and by those seeking to mobilise that vote.
SPEAKER_05:How much is it about the war in... Israel, Gaza that spilled into Lebanon and even Syria and how much is it about just a frustration on recognition being represented and general respect in society?
SPEAKER_04:For that reason related to respect and society and a period of time particularly post-September 11 for a decade or so where there was some significant securitization of some communities and and so on, and particularly that second and third generation felt that quite heavily. That was when they were talking about building some of these political parties back in the 2010s and late 2000s. But what we've seen is since October 7, and in particular since the war in Gaza, which has almost coincided, we've seen a really strong push, like a really concerted effort to mobilise. But that hasn't just come from this small core of committed Muslim activists. That's come from the political left. That's come from the BDS-type movement, some in the unions who are quite hard left, who have adopted Gaza as their personal cause. And so you've seen this marriage of convenience between the hard left and a more Islamist profile to some of these activists. And so when you go to university campuses, you'll see side-by-side socialists, and Hizb ut-Tahrir at the University of Sydney, for example, quite unprecedented times that we're seeing this, and yet they share many of the same basic core perspectives on authoritarianism, the evil West, the so-called war machine, and so on. So to that extent, that's what we've seen is this more cohesive, larger block emerge.
SPEAKER_05:You mentioned earlier the role of the Greens. How direct
SPEAKER_04:is it? In my opinion, the Greens have sought to mobilise this from day one. They've got leaders like Maureen Faruqi, who are very outspoken and active in this, and they've sought to mobilise this as a particular point. I think, unlike the old Greens, led by Bob Brown, which are very much a principled party focused on the environment, the modern Greens, as they've emerged, have become very much entrenched in real politic, in seeking to actually not only... shape election outcomes and play second fiddle to Labor, but to actually take a real stake in the Australian political process. And to that extent, like any other political party, they've sought to manipulate and to mobilize events to suit their own electoral aims and ambitions. And we've seen that play out in public speech, but also in Greens leaders becoming actively involved in protests and speaking at these protests and seeking to set themselves apart from the other parties.
SPEAKER_05:In these seats, Labor potentially has the most to lose. Who are they up against? Is it Greens or is it Independents? How's that going to play out in the various Labor seats at risk?
SPEAKER_04:What we're seeing primarily is where Muslim vote matters and so on, they're either recommending candidates or in some cases they're strongly supporting Independents who voice their views. Senator Payman has started her own party. Australia's voice and they were committed to building and running a candidate in every federal seat. They have expanded their platform a little bit more to cover the economy but a key platform was quote to end the genocide and so again they're seeking to mobilize and in particular the youth vote. We know the youth vote has turned away from the major political parties and so I What we're seeing here is the Greens, but also independent Muslim candidates and some running under these tickets, seeking in particular to target that vote.
SPEAKER_05:Senator Payman's an interesting person to talk about because obviously she was originally elected as a senator for the Labor Party and has since left. How strong will her influence be in this election?
SPEAKER_04:Look, I think it will be marginal. I don't see the minor parties that have just formed, particularly around key issues, gaining that wider traction. There will be a protest vote at this particular election. I mean... If we go back to 2022, as Australia emerged from COVID, there was a backlash, a change of government federally. We saw Labor come in, but probably one of the definitive, two definitive factors shaping this election, the role of October 7 and Gaza. I think for many, that's been a catalyst. I don't think that it's necessarily going to shape the election outcome, but it's going to potentially shift some seats. But also, what we've seen in the cost of living crisis has not gone away. The property crisis and affordability crisis and everything associated with that is really continuing to bite out there in the electorate. People are looking for someone to blame. And we've just had Trump elected, which has just absolutely shaken global politics to the core. This is one of the most complex elections for many reasons that I can remember for a long time.
SPEAKER_05:We will get back to our chat with Dr Josh Roos after this message.
SPEAKER_10:Hi, I'm Dash Lawrence, Executive Director here at The Jewish Independent. If you're enjoying this federal election edition of Tensions Transplanted, and I hope you are, you can show your appreciation by becoming an ongoing donor to The Jewish Independent. Monthly or annual donations help our organisation bring you original and independent journalism about the issues that matter to Australian Jews. Visit thejewishindependent.com.au forward slash donate and Coming out to
SPEAKER_05:the Labor Party, they seem stuck in the middle because they're desperate to show a level of support towards Israel, but also not alienate voters that are supporting the Palestinian cause. How has that played out?
SPEAKER_04:One of the core challenges is that Labor, it's important to remember, has its factions and its ascendant factions. And so the ascendant faction in Labor, both at the state level here in Victoria but also federally, is the socialist left faction who naturally gravitate toward a pro-Palestinian position. And so Albanese is a member and there's many images of him walking around in pro-Palestinian positions. protests and so other things. And that's also played out arguably with Penny Wong's position as well. It is balanced out by the Labor right and there's a strong pro-Israel element within the Labor right. And so they've had to balance not only attempting to maintain that support amongst the Muslim working and middle class, they've also had to look at the potential for what this is going to cost them. in terms of other seats. Now, for the Jewish population here in Australia, it's only 100,000 people. And so only a couple of seats. These are seats where the Jewish vote will play a role. The Jewish influence in terms of public voice, I think, has played a role in shaping wider Australian perceptions of the conflict. And I think wider Australia, to some extent, is not only fed up with anti-Semitism, but it's fed up with people bringing overseas conflicts here to Australia. And I don't think that it's going to shape the wider Australian vote out there where people are just worried about putting food on the table and paying a house off.
SPEAKER_05:You mentioned before the younger vote. It seems like there is a newer generation coming through and you're saying that they're leaving the major parties. Is that across the board?
SPEAKER_04:In a broad sense, yes. And the major parties are realising that they've got to engage. So we see sometimes a lot of use of memes, a lot of use of humour. The use of social media like TikTok, the use of other mechanisms to reach younger voters, in some ways is a little bit more brutal in its depiction of opponents than, say, it might be on a mainstream television ad. We've seen Anthony Albanese bringing influences on his campaign bus. And that seems to be a trend that both parties may well start adopting, the major parties. I know the Greens are already doing so. And bringing influences into the fold to then post to their followers and followers and so on. It's a brand new terrain so far as weaving social media and youth vocabulary and terminology into a campaign.
SPEAKER_05:We've pretty much barely mentioned the Liberal Party in the context of the Muslim vote in this election. Have they just lost any support for Muslim voters, do you think?
SPEAKER_04:It's interesting because historically, whilst many new migrants gravitated to Labor... As people became established, there have been Muslim members of the Liberal Party and they've got their own vote. What we've seen emerge in Australia over the last couple of decades is a Muslim professional elite who are doing well in law, in medicine, in finance, in other areas, who don't necessarily identify with the more working class politics and who do tend to lean right in their conservative thinking. Where I think Dutton faces a significant challenge here is that he has come out unabashedly in support of Israel and the Jewish population, very strong in anti-Semitism. And I think while some in the Muslim community will view that favourably because it's showing leadership and they're not anti-Semitic, they're Australian and they value relationships and communities across the board.
SPEAKER_05:Polls have sort of been... pointing towards a hung parliament. Do you think that Palestine, Gaza and general Islamophobia would come up as an issue as part of the negotiating that may happen? I
SPEAKER_04:think almost certainly but we're already seeing that play out behind the scenes in terms of some of the approaches that are being taken. You know, there is a review of Australia's national security legislation at the moment that's occurring, potential impacts that haven't really been widely covered in the media. There's also attempts to shape Australia's foreign policy and shape Australia's voting at the United Nations, but also more broadly shape funding for different bodies. There's been, ever since the Jewish community has been started to be funded, significantly more around the issue of anti-Semitism. There are some in Muslim communities who are complaining. The Jewish community puts its hand out and gets funding without any hassles. But we know that Labor, in particular, if they have to govern with the Greens, whether they like it or not, will have to make compromises and the Greens will push to entrench themselves as supporters of Palestine, as supporters of anti-Israel opposition, but also as supporters of the white and Muslim community and attempt to continue to build that link. And they're very strategic in doing so because the Australian Muslim population as it stands is at 3%. A decade ago, it was at 2.2%. So we're seeing exponential growth and it will only get more influential as future elections evolve.
SPEAKER_05:Have the umbrella Muslim organisations made any calls with regards to voting?
SPEAKER_04:Not that I've seen, and that wouldn't necessarily appeal to very many people anyway, because the dynamic of Muslim religious organisation is such that very few people would say that the imam actually, say that the mufti, for example, ever speaks directly to them. It's such a diverse community. And so in particular amongst the more conservative Muslims and those who are Islamist in outlook, who are seeking to shape the world around them in accordance with their faiths, they're very unlikely to be swayed or influenced at all by what a formal or recognised Muslim political leadership or community leadership would say.
SPEAKER_05:Do you think any seats will fall to an independent sort of that has the Muslim votes behind them?
SPEAKER_04:The one to watch, the bellwether for me to some extent is Will's. because you've got the Greens who have put an enormous amount of resources in to unseating Peter Khalil. There's also a strong anti-Gaza conflict and a war there issue. I think go up the road to Corwell and you'll see, again, a very safe labour seat. If there's a backlash there, that would be quite indicative of what's going on more broadly across the country, including Western Sydney.
SPEAKER_05:May 4th. Who's in power? How's it going to play out?
SPEAKER_04:Based on what I've seen with more recent polling, I think quite ironically, the Trump effect is playing a significant role, particularly amongst younger voters and also amongst the professional class who view that their jobs would be at risk if a Liberal Party were elected. Because if you look at the early announcements by Peter Dutton around having an Australian version of Doge, the Department of Government Efficiency, the rhetoric is is absolutely toxic out there in the Australian electorate. I think people who work in public service, people who work in universities and education and schools, people who have small businesses and so on have seen what's occurring overseas. And there's a real fear that that could occur here in Australia. And I think unless Dutton does more to distinguish himself from that, we may well potentially see a Labor majority government.
SPEAKER_05:A big thank you to Dr Josh Roos. Josh has written pieces for the Jewish Independent and you'll find links to his articles in the show notes. Make sure you check them out. In our final episode, we will talk directly to two of the most prominent Jewish MPs about the current election. The Liberal MP for Barara, Julian Lisa.
SPEAKER_03:So I won't be selling out the rights of Jewish Australians as I wouldn't be selling the rights of any Australian that is suffering racism and persecution in order to achieve bipartisan And
SPEAKER_05:the Labor MP for McNamara, Josh Burns.
SPEAKER_07:Well, look, no political party can direct preferences. It's just a complete fallacy to say that any political party can tell someone what to do. All political parties do is make recommendations.
SPEAKER_05:If you haven't yet explored the Jewish Independent special election series, now's your chance to get involved. Will anti-Semitism or views on Israel shape your vote? Share your thoughts and comments on the Jewish Independent. You'll find us online Hey, it's your third cousin Tammy Sussman here.
SPEAKER_00:Just popping in to remind you that you shouldn't be ashamed to ask all those ignorant questions about Jewish current affairs. Join me and TJI's Dash Lawrence as we cut through some seriously chewy and dewy topics. Listen to the Jewish Independence Ashamed to Admit podcast wherever you're listening to this one.