Is the Housing Market Slowing Down… or Is This Your Opportunity? (Green Bay Data Breakdown)

Is the real estate market finally cooling off… or are investors just getting nervous?

In this episode of The Wisconsin Investor, guest host Reese Brown sits down with commercial lender Kolten VanElzen to break down exactly what’s happening in the Green Bay housing market right now, using real data, real trends, and real investor insight.

They dig into what most people are feeling in today’s market versus what the numbers actually show. From rising days on market to tight inventory and steady price growth, this episode separates perception from reality.

Here’s what you’ll learn:
 • Why listings are slightly down, but not in the way people think
 • What rising days on market really says about today’s buyers
 • Why affordability is becoming the biggest factor in deal flow
 • How new construction pricing is shaping the entire market
 • What interest rates are likely to do over the next 12 months
 • Why Northeast Wisconsin continues to outperform most U.S. markets

One of the biggest takeaways? Even with global uncertainty, higher rates, and affordability challenges, deals are still happening and prices are still trending upward in Green Bay. 

If you’re an investor waiting on the sidelines or trying to figure out your next move, this episode gives you a clear, data-backed look at where things stand and where they could be heading.

The market hasn’t stopped, it’s just shifting.

Transcript

Welcome And Guest Introduction

SPEAKER_01 0:38

All right, guys, welcome back to another episode of the Wisconsin Investor Podcast. I am your guest host once again, Reese Brown, filling in for Corey for I think the third or fourth week. And with me today, I have a guest who I'm very excited to introduce here. He is our first repeat guest. I don't know if you know that yet, but uh first time coming back. About a year back, we did a podcast, or Corey did a podcast kind of looking at the current market. And that's what I have Colton Van Elzen here to talk about again today. Colton, how are we doing?

SPEAKER_00 1:10

Appreciate it, Reese. Uh that's a quick introduction and big shoes to Phil being a repeat guest.

Where The Market Feels Today

SPEAKER_01 1:16

So that's uh the the first time we've had that happen. So really, really excited to have you on here. Huge shout out to Colton. I was going through uh this stuff late last night, and I texted Colton this morning if he could come join me for it because I didn't feel comfortable uh going over all this data uh on my own. I knew Colton had a bunch of experience doing this. Colton made it work on about uh what are we seven-hour notice? Appreciate you you making this happen, Colton. Um but with that said, as we we dive into kind of the topic of where are we currently sitting? Um again, did this a year back, Colton. Your kind of general overview right now. Uh where are you kind of feeling our market at? Colton's got a background in uh lending, so you know, factoring that in, but but just as the market as a whole, um, where are you kind of seeing things right now?

SPEAKER_00 2:15

Thanks, Russ. Uh so background is I'm a commercial lender at Bay Bank, and so I see a lot of the commercial side of stuff, right? Um, and get a little bit nibbles of the residential. I'd say one of the things that you're kind of hearing from other investors and you know, some of the customers I talk with is a little bit of sense of hesitancy given a lot of the nature of things that have been going on, right? A year ago, me and Corey were talking about tariffs, you know, and this year yeah, you have a war going on, right? So quite a bit of uncertainty from a macro perspective. But as we look at the data today, you know, and the things that keep showing up year after year with Green Bay is prices continue to chug along and going up and to the right, um, as we'll show in the charts. And activity still continues to happen. Deals continue to happen, listings happen, you know, investor activity, it still continues to go. It's a little slower right now than probably a little bit of a normal season, but still nonetheless, uh, people are still moving and shaking, which is awesome to see in Green Bath.

SPEAKER_01 3:20

Yeah, for sure. With that being said, we'll we'll get right into some of the graphs and charts that um we had talked about going over here today. For the folks that are just listening along, I am sharing my screen right now. We'll try to over-explain everything. We're only looking at a few different charts um here, but some of them being median sale prices, we're also gonna be looking at new listings and where some of that data shakes out. So um, with that being said, we'll start right away with um what was it gonna be, median days on market? Or did you want to talk about newer new listings, Colton?

SPEAKER_00 3:57

Let's start with the new listings as I'll kind of then feed into the median days on market, and then we can end with the uh sales price. Because as everyone knows, uh the sale price is where you make your money. So people want to end order that's we'll keep them hanging around until then.

SPEAKER_01 4:12

Um listings here. We were at I feel like we're we're just looking at a different graph here, though. We were um are we looking at the right one here, cool?

SPEAKER_00 4:24

Yeah, yeah, it's new listings because if you look scroll down just a little bit year over year, we're a little bit below. So last year's uh data.

New Listings And Seasonal Reality

SPEAKER_01 4:31

Yep, yep, yep. Here we go. So new listings year over year. So yeah, what we're looking at here was we're seeing 2023, 24, 25, all in a line graph of this is gonna be the percentage year over year of new listings. So right now, as we're you know, in kind of just approaching that spring market, we're actually down new listings, which I feel like are the consensus, the feel out there right now is that there's way more homes on the market and things aren't moving like they once were. Um, which we'll get into some of that later. But is there is there kind of a reason that we're seeing inventory uh still sort of slipping here, Colton?

SPEAKER_00 5:18

So when you look at the data, it you know, it's not even slipping that much, right? It's still following the same seasonal trend. You're looking at the year over year data, and it's at most 5% off the prior year. Um, you're still above 2023 data. So we're still following in the right trend. Given the last two months, right? You've had a really cold spell, and then you had a winter storm in March. So some of that stuff can just kind of delay when stuff hits the market. So you could still see at the end of April here and in the beginning of the May that that spring uh home selling push kind of starts to materialize, and you start to see that kind of push in listings.

SPEAKER_01 6:00

Yeah, and that goes into to some of the other graphs that we'll look at here in a second. The new inventory that we're seeing, right? That that percentage is kind of right around break even right now. I don't have that up in front of us. I think um it was just under uh like it was a negative 1.5% uh from the year prior. While at the same time, our days on market has actually jumped up a little bit, and that's something that we can look at here in a second. Is there we and we had talked about it for a second uh before we had we had got on the podcast here? Um, what is your takeaway from that seeing that the days on market has increased while inventory has still dropped? What does that tell us about our buyers?

SPEAKER_00 6:53

I think you're kind of seeing that constraint. You know, this is one of the things that's been talked about for years now, with as much as inflation and housing prices have uh skyrocketed and interest rates have spiked, that the housing affordability is at an all-time low. So your buyer pool has, in a sense, not shrunk, but right, their price range of what they could buy hasn't expanded in years. Like you need rates to go down for them to afford a higher monthly payment, or for their monthly payment to you know equate to a larger uh home value. And so right now, you know, we talked about this earlier, but a lot of the new construction, you're not building for under$350. You know, a lot of the new stuff that's coming on from spec builders, home builders is that over that$400,000 mark. And you kind of see that when we get to kind of the sale price, there's really no inventory below$300. You know, you hear it day after day from yellers that they cannot find anything for their buyers of quality in that two to three hundred thousand dollar price range. So, again, as inventory gets more and more expensive, it's gonna take a little bit longer to kind of filter through and find the right buyer to map those prices.

SPEAKER_01 8:06

Yeah, yeah. And that's what we're seeing is essentially the buyers are getting a little bit more pickier uh now. What you know, I've talked to some realtors and I'm gonna be curious to hear your input on this. But it sounds like inspection contingencies, again, are gonna be something we're seeing a lot of uh for for guys that are flipping. Uh, it's gonna be kind of the new normal. Whereas three, four years ago, if you had an inspection contingency, you might as well not even offer it on a property. Um, and that that script is is start starting to flip here. Uh, have you started to see the same exact thing?

SPEAKER_00 8:40

Yeah, we've seen a little bit of that, and again, it comes down to the price range, right? Where the buyer pool is the most and there's the demand, you still have to be competitive with your offers, or else you're not gonna be able to get them. Yeah. Yeah.

SPEAKER_01 8:54

Going to kind of back to the new construction that you brought up too. It seems like we're starting our average sale price in Green Bay. If I can pull, if we can go to median sale price here. I think we're up to like a 360, is it? Yeah, we're up to 360. So that's kind of right where those the the cost to build, and you know more about this than I do, cool. And so I want you to take this um kind of and run with it. But we're starting to approach that, you know, 360 is what you can build for now, and that's our median sale price. Do you see our market uh kind of is it gonna stop appreciating at the rate it has because the cost to build is kind of right where our current market is, or or what do you see there?

Days On Market And Affordability

SPEAKER_00 9:44

Yeah, it's it's one of those things that's difficult to kind of future forecast on, but builders are not gonna build to lose money, right? So when they go to build, they're looking at hey, what is the end buyer willing to pay for and what can they build or uh pay for? So they're not gonna go and over-build a bunch of inventory just to depress their prices, you know, they're gonna wait to have the buyers, and that's what we kind of see in the median days on market. It's just it's expanded a little bit. Um, you know, and for them it's better to wait a little bit longer, get that confirmed sale, and then start the next project versus having 10 projects out and then hoping the buyers will come in. So as the gap starts to shrink, yeah, you could see a little bit of slowdown in price appreciation. But like you mentioned, prices since 2020 have gone up well over 50 to 60 percent in our metro. So, like, you know, at some point, you know, the historical return on real estate is you know that two to three percent. It kind of mirrors inflation. Um, and so as we kind of get to that new normal, you know, that you're not gonna see the 10% year over year, but you're gonna still continue to see the rate of pricing go up. You know, your contractor's not gonna take less money than he did a year ago or she did a year ago.

SPEAKER_01 11:02

Yeah, so it's gonna continue to streamline. I think something that I had had mentioned to you here earlier, um, and for the folks who are listening in, I I pulled up a graph here. Uh this is all redfin data, and it's long-term median sale prices from I have Green Bay, uh compared, I also have Madison and Milwaukee in here, and I've compared it to there's 14 total metros. We got Phoenix, Seattle, Boston, Tampa, LA, Denver, Philly, Chicago, DC, Houston, and Dallas. So just kind of a mix all over uh the nation here. And if we go back from March of 2016 to March 2026, our market, our average sale in 2016 was 150. Now in Green Bay, this is Green Bay, it was 150 to 2026, is now 360, which is 140% increase, and tops the list. The next up is Phoenix, which is only 108%. So 140% increase to 108. Then Madison's in third at 98, Milwaukee in fifth place at 91. So Wisconsin really seems to be kind of winning here. Is there do you see anything? Like what's your take on some of this data, Colton? What does this tell you?

SPEAKER_00 12:28

I mean, Wisconsin has been just continued to be one of the most robust areas to invest in, and what has given investors I want to say peace of mind, is it's consistency. You're not having the major fluctuations that you're seeing in some of those other metros, like Dallas or some of the Florida markets, where it's like they appreciated 60, 50% in two, three years, and now they're down 20, 30 percent from their highs a couple of years ago.

SPEAKER_01 12:52

Yeah, if you look as you look at the graph, we're looking at that exact spike that Colton just mentioned. He called it.

SPEAKER_00 13:00

So for those listening, uh Reese has pulled up some more Redfit data that's kind of got the chart and looking at the spike from 2020 to 2022, and now you're seeing that trend line. And a lot of it comes down to the metros that build. So, Wisconsin, it's not like we're uh not a builder-friendly state, but we're not nearly as friendly as some of these southern states, and they have just continued to build and build, and at the end of the day, you know, that's what drives right a lot of the pricing is supply and demand. And so, and some of these other metros, when that part of the equation supply goes up, you know, and the demand stays the same, price has to follow down.

SPEAKER_01 13:38

Yeah, and I think the the the the place that I like to compare, you know, Green Bay real estate to maybe some other metros, which we had talked about. It's so hard to compare, you know, real estate's so local that it's hard to compare where where we're at, where we're investing to, you know, uh Tampa or to Colorado. But um the cost, the median home prices in some of those areas are exponentially higher than the difference in cost to build. Um, if you're following me there. So the cost to build a house here, you know, might be that 350. Uh whereas the cost to build. And are you seeing, do you do you know anything about that, Golden? Do you do you also see that that pushing our prices in our market to keep increasing or no?

New Construction Sets A Price Floor

SPEAKER_00 14:27

So as far as so like the reason why the difference in our cost to other states, kind of like other metros, some of that can be just kind of what they're building, you know. Uh it's different quality. Um, you know, in the north, right, we have to build foundations, you know, that's one of the major expenses. And concrete stuff like that that gets imported, or that's a major industrial cost, you know, you get a lot more factors into it. Um, that kind of have been driving the price up.

SPEAKER_01 15:00

Trying to pull up some of this data here. I might not be able to, uh, price per square foot was another one that it kind of uh it kind of can compare apples to apples without just looking at median home price. Yeah. Um, but no, outside of outside of some of these charts, and we could talk about this till I feel like especially me and you, Colton, we could talk about this until we're blue in the face. Um, if we go to some some stuff that you specialize in, but from a lender's perspective here, um what do you see kind of forecasting um over the next 12 months? Is that's what you and Core did a year back? What's the forecast here um for for the lending outlook and and how that could impact kind of some of the things that we're talking about?

SPEAKER_00 15:47

Yeah, I mean, as we look at rates, uh, I don't know if you can pull up the uh CME uh Fed funds rate. So this is the best prediction tool in the market. All of the analysts on CNBC, CNN will kind of uh revert back to it. So if you click the first one, Fed Fed watch right there. For those who are listening, uh Reese's live scrolling through. So if we go to if we scroll down and we'll hit it's called probabilities. So if you want to do this at home, you can do it yourself. It's on the sidebar if you're scrolling through desktop. This is what the live market predicts the Fed's funds rate gonna be at, and pretty much it's flat. So there's a few factors in that, right? We have a new Fed chair that's supposed to be coming in here, uh, Kevin Warsh to be replacing Jerome Powell. So we have a Fed meeting that's actually in two days from this taping, and that's gonna basically you know be another non-change in rate policy. You'll probably hear some verbiage and guidance based on the current inflation environment due to the war going on in the Middle East. But outside of that, it I think the Fed is gonna hold steady. You know, the bond market, the only thing that's gonna really affect it at this point is the change in spreads. Uh and you know, you can kind of see the volatility of the 10-year treasury kind of going up and down. But a lot of it is just gonna probably stay similar as long as the current Fed regime stays in its same mindset of like, hey, we're not gonna raise rates, we're not gonna hike rates, we're just gonna wait and see. Uh mortgage rates are gonna hold pretty steady. There'll be a little bit of volatility, but I think your uh six to seven percent interest rate is gonna be the normal unless something changes significantly from a macro perspective.

Why Wisconsin Outperforms Big Metros

SPEAKER_01 17:32

Yeah, and I know we looked at this, we looked at this a while back. I remember uh uh Colton actually was hosting uh a real estate meetup that we do, RAI Success Club, uh, and and was going through this exact uh forecast and a year is that what was that nine months ago, maybe Colton? Yeah, something like that. Something like that.

SPEAKER_00 17:53

There was like two or three rate cuts, and we had the two or three rate cuts, and now we're now we're even.

SPEAKER_01 18:00

Yeah. So was that was that forecast nine months back comparing to now? Did it did it kind of even with uh what's going on overseas, uh have we still followed that trip trajectory? If not, what has changed because of our our climate right now?

SPEAKER_00 18:18

Yeah, so I we I think when we did this about a year ago, there was about three more rate cuts predicted, and we roughly that's where we came in line with the market was pretty close. And at what at the end of the day, what's gonna change this will be inflation, right? Does inflation start to come back down? Some argue it's already kind of down, and you're kind of seeing that a little bit in some of the service data, service sector data, but with goods inflation due to the war, there's gonna be a little bit more fluctuations going on. So I think the Fed's just gonna continue to hold neutral. And the only other thing that could really factor into that, this is another episode we can kind of get further a deeper dive in, is labor, right? Yeah, where does the labor market? And this is a big factor in real estate, right? If you're starting to see more of that job loss, starting to see more of those layoffs, is it AI, is it the war, whatever it may be, that could affect demand, right? You need a job to be able to afford your mortgage, you need a job to pay your bills, to pay other people, right? So they stay employed. So as long as the unemployment rate stays in check, which it has, if you look at weekly unemployment claims, it hasn't spiked. It's continued to stay at near all-time lows. You know, the market will continue to just kind of chug along and rates will kind of stay at the same pace. So if the labor market gets worse, rates will definitely come down because the Fed's going to want to accommodate it. But right now, everything has kind of remained pretty resilient given uh all things considered.

SPEAKER_01 19:53

Yeah. And I think the other thing to note, going back to kind of the bigger picture and what we started out on, is the affordability of the market that we're in. If we're talking, you know, Green Bay area and the larger metro is when when spikes, if spikes happen in unemployment, say AI takes off and job loss, unemployment increases, our market is typically more recession proof to that because we are much more affordable than some of the say coastal markets, some of the, you know, fucking Phoenix, Colorado, Denver, um, some of those areas. I'm not sure if you you see the same thing, uh, Colton, as I am there.

Rate Outlook Using FedWatch

SPEAKER_00 20:38

Yeah, it's not only the lower cost, but it's the the diversification of jobs. I would say that's one of the unique things about Northeast Wisconsin, uh, Fox Valley included, right? We have a high degree of manufacturing jobs, we have a high degree of healthcare jobs, we have a high degree of education jobs. So all those different environments, it's say if one sector's you know kind of being sluggish, which manufacturing over the last couple of years has been a little bit slower. All the other industries, construction still is uh continuing on strong in the area, right? New builds are continuing to happen. Uh if you try and get a hold of some contractors, it's like good luck, right? Like they're still really busy. So, like all of that feeds into the local economy and is what really has kept us really resilient. Plus, you know, for uh I'm a Vikings fan and I know you are uh El Salis, but oh god, we better be careful. But the the Packers do help, right? Being in the local Green Bay market, right? They the that tourist money that helps boon the economy every time you know they have a game. So you have a lot of different factors that help to make this market way stronger than your typical uh metro.

SPEAKER_01 21:46

Yeah, and not just stronger, I think it's just the resiliency of hey, if if something does you know happen, I think that's kind of the the feeling that everyone has like what's going on with AI one that's been around for a little bit now, but now what's going on overseas, um, you know, the wars that are going on, like you know, I might just want to sit and hold tight. It's like our market has shown to be so damn resilient um with those things. And I think everything you just mentioned kind of goes in line line with it. We're not just up here making cheese every day, it's not what we're doing.

SPEAKER_00 22:16

And for those who want to go look at historical data, go look at the 08 timeframe, you know, 08 to 2010, and compare our market to the national market, we will remain more resilient. So, even in the worst case scenarios, yeah, Green Bay as a northeast Wisconsin has remained stronger than the other metros.

SPEAKER_01 22:34

So yeah, if I I don't know if I'll be able to pull it up quick enough. But prop metrics, um, this is totally free, and they have a um they have a nationwide kind of map that you can look at and compare right here it is the crash and the percentage changes. I don't know if I'll be able to find all the data I'm looking for. It breaks down into zip codes, but uh pop prop metrics is another place. I don't know if you have other resources, uh Colton, uh where you're finding some of this data. Redfin, obviously, we used, um, but is there anything else that you'd want to throw out there?

SPEAKER_00 23:13

Yeah, I mean Redfin, the CME uh watch tool for the Fed watch, if you you know want to watch interest rate policy. Uh the other one's Fred, um, which is like the Federal Reserve data center. So if you want all of like the national data, it's really good on labor statistics. Uh it'll break it up by construction, manufacturing of the different sectors. So, like if you're looking up in like Marinette, where they're really manufacturing based, heavy, you know, make sure you you know you can kind of see how stuff looking up there. Um, but yeah, those are kind of the different resources. A lot of it's just you know, at the end of the day, you gotta take action and you know, continue to adjust as things adjust. Overall, Northeast Wisconsin has remained pretty uh solid place to invest and live and grow, really.

Data Tools Plus Quick Wrap-Up

SPEAKER_01 23:58

Sweet. Well, good stuff, man. Again, I appreciate you making this last minute. Before I cut you loose, I know we've already asked you this question once since it's your uh it's your second time on here, but um, what is what's the favorite Wisconsin tradition? Although we're we're Vikings fans. What's the Wisconsin tradition for you?

SPEAKER_00 24:18

Well, so outside of watching the Vikings beat the Packers in Lambo Field, Corey's never gonna let me do this again, man. Uh no, favorite Wisconsin tradition. Actually, it's been going up to Door County. Uh, I know this one's been said before. I didn't say this one last night, but uh going up to Bailey's Harbor, hanging out on that uh not Bailey's Harbor, um Sister Bay, going out on the beach right there. I think is it uh the pizza restaurant? Is it wild uh tomato, I believe. It's got really good pizza. You get that, put it on the park and enjoy it, enjoy the view of the uh bay. Can't beat that.

SPEAKER_01 24:53

Nice. No, you can't northern Wisconsin in general, you can't beat it. So sweet man. Well, hey, again, appreciate you making this work and hopping on. I think there's a lot of really cool things that we covered here. One just you know, the summarizing it all is we're in a pretty resilient market, and despite all the stuff that's going on, our days on markets increase slightly, but there's not a whole lot changing here. So again, appreciate it, Colton. And uh we will we'll see you on here maybe for a third time.

SPEAKER_00 25:20

Sounds good, Reese. Appreciate the invite. All right, later. Take care.