Less Noise, More Signal

Upcoming macro analyst: Global M2 money supply is not a measure for global liquidity!

Pascal Episode 37

In this conversation, Joe Consorti and Pascal Hügli explore the complex relationship between Bitcoin and global liquidity, particularly Global M2. They emphasize the need to move beyond traditional liquidity metrics, introducing a new asset-backed liquidity framework that offers deeper insights into market dynamics and lending activity — both essential for understanding Bitcoin’s value proposition. The discussion also highlights Bitcoin’s ongoing maturation as an asset and its potential role as a hedge against monetary debasement, reflecting the shifting landscape of global finance. Consorti and Hügli also dive into the nuances of liquidity measurement, with a special focus on TBL's liquidity metric. They examine the impact of quantitative tightening (QT) and the Federal Reserve’s balance sheet strategy, underlining the critical role of the U.S. dollar in shaping global markets. The conversation also covers the influence of bond market volatility on economic growth and concludes with sharp insights into the alignment between government policy and the Federal Reserve on interest rates and the future trajectory of financial liquidity.


Chapters:
00:46 Intro 
01:51 Bitcoin and Global M2: An Intriguing Relationship
02:55 Understanding Liquidity: Beyond Global M2
05:53 Bitcoin's Maturation and Market Dynamics
08:47 The Role of Lending Activity in Bitcoin's Value
11:52 Defining Liquidity: A Deeper Dive
14:59 The TBL Liquidity Metric Explained
18:00 Bitcoin as a Forward-Looking Indicator
25:03 Understanding KBL Liquidity Metrics
30:15 The Impact of Quantitative Tightening
34:59 Analyzing the Dollar's Influence on Global Markets
39:33 Bond Volatility and Economic Growth
44:26 Consensus and Future Predictions for Bond Markets

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