Less Noise, More Signal
Welcome to Less Noise, More Signal. In a world saturated with news, hype, and endless chatter, finding clarity can seem like searching for a needle in a haystack. I have taken on this challenge and made it my mission to cut through the noise by amplifying the signal.
Who am I? I am Pascal Hügli. With a background in political philosophy, a career in investment management, and a deep expertise in Bitcoin and digital assets, I am here to explore the ideas and connections that others do not bother to see. It’s not just about finding the right answers; it’s about asking the right questions.
In each episode, I interview the most insightful thinkers in their respective fields. Every guest contributes a vital piece to the puzzle, helping us form a clearer picture of the forces shaping our world of macro, finance, and money.
Listen in as my guests and I tilt the balance from noise to signal, one podcast episode at a time. Let’s cut through the clutter and focus on what truly matters. Ready to elevate your understanding? Let’s dive in.
Less Noise, More Signal
The Macro Model You are Using is Probably Broken
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▬▬▬ DISCUSSION ▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬
💬Join the discussion on Telegram: https://t.me/+OgDv1Djbvs80M2Fk
▬▬▬ EPISODE ▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬
In this episode, dive into a comprehensive discussion on modern monetary theory, macroeconomic modeling, and how fiscal flows influence markets and assets like Bitcoin with Douglas Padgett -- a macro researcher and founder of Applied MMT. He shares his insights on government spending, private credit cycles, and the importance of flow analysis for market forecasting.
Follow Douglas Padgett 👉 https://x.com/MMTmacrotrader
▬▬▬ SUPPORT ▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬
⚡️LNMS on Lightning: lnms@ln.mtpelerin.com
₿ BTC-Address: bc1qmk7gfdnrdegnmnrtnacj6rslan0y6v29kdlf9p
💵https://buy.stripe.com/9B600k5Tscv33Ue4zRdby00
Twint: https://go.twint.ch/1/e/tw?tw=acq.Z7L1opJwS72nbGgEMY4w3ILkf67JAEyEFmXrtoKoUbONWSsjLDDQIhNx5ReanPy7.
▬▬▬ LINKS ▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬
📰 LNMS Newsletter: https://lessnoisemoresignal.substack.com/
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🎧 LNMS on Fountain: https://tinyurl.com/5dsbbj5p
🌐 LNMS Website: https://www.lessnoise-moresignal.com/
📖 Bitcoin Book: https://www.amazon.de/dp/1967693013
🎧 LNMS on YouTube: https://tinyurl.com/4jfhr4zn
▬▬▬ SOCIALS ▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬
Follow on X👉 https://x.com/pahueg
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Follow on LinkedIn 👉 https://www.linkedin.com/in/pascal-huegli/
▬▬▬ CHAPTERS ▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬
00:00 Intro
01:32 Why traditional textbooks overlook the real macro regime post-1970s
02:02 Douglas's background: Austrian roots and transition to MMT-based macro analysis
04:18 Core ideas of Modern Monetary Theory and government’s role in creating financial assets
12:39 Defining applied MMT: profits, profits sources, and the profit cycle
15:17 How government spending acts as an asset and profit driver
19:00 The mechanics of government borrowing and liabilities as assets
23:41 The role of repo markets and reserves in government spending
32:15 The real fiscal deficit impulse and its predictive power
44:37 Private debt cycles and leverage in macro analysis
49:35 Deep MMT: advanced forecasting tools and system dynamic models
01:06:01 Correlation between fiscal flows and Bitcoin price movements
01:10:27 Why fiscal flows provide a clearer picture than Fed liquidity
01:13:08 The nature of the Treasury General Account (TGA) and its implications
01:14:33 The relationship between bond issuance, reserves, and fiscal policy
