Power Struggle
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The energy conversation is personal: it’s in our homes, in our hands, and now, it’s in our ears. Power Struggle invites you to listen in on honest, non-partisan, and fact-based conversations between host Stewart Muir and the leaders and thinkers designing modern energy.
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Power Struggle
What can Canada learn from California?
California's ambitious EV mandate faces serious challenges with the 2026 requirement of 35% zero-emission vehicles while current market share sits at just 20%. Brian Maas, president of the California New Car Dealers Association, explains the growing tension between political ambition and market realities.
• California leads the US in electric vehicle adoption with one in five vehicles sold being pure EVs
• Upcoming mandate requires 35% of all vehicles manufactured for California to be zero-emission by 2026
• Manufacturers face $20,000 fines per non-compliant vehicle, likely leading to restricted allocation of gas-powered cars
• 64% of Californians oppose the zero-emission vehicle mandate to go 100% by 2035
• Insufficient charging infrastructure remains the top concern preventing consumers from transitioning to EVs
• California needs 1 million public chargers by 2030 but currently has only 178,000
• Price difference between electric and gas vehicles ranges from a few thousand to over $10,000
• California dealers have launched a "Calibrate" campaign asking regulators to pause enforcement
• China's BYD has become the world's largest EV manufacturer, raising trade and policy questions
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The energy conversation is polarizing. But the reality is multidimensional. Get the full story with host Stewart Muir.
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Welcome to Power Struggle. I'm Stuart Muir. Today we're heading south to California, where some of the most ambitious energy and climate policies in North America are already in motion. California gave the world car culture, from the lowriders of East LA to the Teslas of Silicon Valley. This place has shaped how people move, how they dream, how they rebel. It's behind the wheel, but as policymakers push aggressive EV mandates, there's growing tension between political ambition and real-world market realities. Today, on Power Struggle, I'm joined by Brian Moss, the president of the California New Car Dealers Association. He spent over two decades representing 1,000-plus franchised new car dealers across the state. Brian, welcome to Power Struggle.
Brian Maas:Stuart, thanks for having me Really appreciate it.
Stewart Muir:You know there's the people on the front lines, the ones who actually sell the cars. Talk to the buyers. What they're seeing in the showrooms where they meet their customers might surprise you, brian. Tell us about that.
Brian Maas:Sure. So California leads the United States in electric vehicle market share. One out of every five vehicles sold in California is a pure EV. Then when you add hybrid vehicles and plug-in hybrid vehicles on top of that, it's well over 30 plus percent. We deliver what customers want to buy and our EV market share is three times what it is nationally. The problem, as you alluded to, is there are mandates that apply in California and 11 other states that require for the 2026 model year, 35% of all vehicles manufactured for sale in our state must be zero emission, even though the market share right now is 20%. So we've got a mandate that virtually none of the manufacturers our dealers represent are going to be able to meet, and it's going to kick in in a matter of weeks and months as the 26 model year vehicles arrive on dealers lots.
Stewart Muir:Now, just so I'm clear, is this EVs only that need to be 35% of all new cars sold in 2026? Or are there other kinds of lower, zero emission cars that are in this?
Brian Maas:So part of the mandate includes plug-in electric hybrids. But there's strict requirements on what portion of the vehicle's energy has to be electric. So you have to get 50 miles all electric in a plug-in for it to count toward the EV mandate. Unfortunately, most of the plug-in hybrids available today only have a range of between 20 and 40 miles, so they don't count. I drive a plug-in myself. It only gets 40 miles all electric. It wouldn't count for purposes of the EV mandate.
Stewart Muir:So on paper it looks like those plug-in hybrids are accepted, but in practice they're not.
Brian Maas:At least is the way the mandate is presently constituted.
Stewart Muir:Okay. Well, it sounds like there's some friction points that are building here between the reality of today and the aspirations that the California government has set out. How are consumers reacting to this?
Brian Maas:Because of the impact of the mandate, the fact that this 35% rule kicks in. This year. We've been leading a public affairs campaign in California to try and educate stakeholders, legislators, regulators, the general public about the impact of the mandate and the potential impact it's going to have on state and local sales tax revenue, the availability of vehicles. What have you? In conjunction with that effort, we commissioned a statewide public opinion poll and we asked do you support a zero emission vehicle mandate to go 100% zero emission by 2035? And 64% of Californians said they opposed it. And the opposition was consistent throughout the state, well over 50% in every region of the state, and we're trying to communicate with policymakers that nobody's opposed to the eventual goal of electrification. California's obviously led that effort, but a mandate that nobody can comply with and one that California voters are opposed to deserves to be recalibrated. That's the calibrate is the name of our campaign, and we'd encourage folks to pause enforcement of the rule until we can figure out how to redraft it.
Stewart Muir:Well, I'd like to dig in a little bit later into how this is going over, whether you think that the goal of recalibration in your campaign is going to be successful, but just want to dig into a few other things. So when I think of California and Californians, I think of eco-friendly. You know people who who love the environment. Maybe they get around on the highways of LA on all that asphalt, but they also tend to be much more green in their views than the rest of the country. Fair.
Brian Maas:Yeah, I think that's fairly true. We adopted by ballot initiative a coastal commission to regulate development on our coast. You know, over 50 years ago, and many of the environmental policies that have spread across the country have started in California we were the first to have an air resources agency in the 60s. It actually preceded the Federal Clean Air Act, so we've been on the forefront of environmental policy for a long time.
Stewart Muir:They keep meticulous records. I've viewed what the CARB, the California Air Resources Board, does because it's interesting to see. They consume a lot of Canadian oil there in the refineries to make the gasoline that goes into the fleet. And boy do they keep records. They know the exact numbers of how polluting this blend, if it's from Nigeria or Iraq or Canada or whatever. They've got the figures. It's amazing. No other jurisdiction I'm aware of keeps that kind of information, at least that the public can easily see. That's California. So you have a Democrat governor, right?
Brian Maas:We do.
Stewart Muir:Now he's looking a little more not so Democrat. He's going on Joe Rogan's podcast. What is he trying to do there? Not?
Brian Maas:look as progressive, or what's the deal? Well, governor Newsom is termed out in 2026. So he's in the last two years of his tenure as governor. Some have speculated if he's pivoting to perhaps run for president or some other office or platform. I have no idea what his intentions are, but you know, clearly, appearing on these podcasts, doing a podcast of his own, making what some would consider to be more moderate policy pronouncements, has led to that speculation.
Stewart Muir:I wonder if there's some energy reality that's part of that, in addition to the change in the federal government with President Trump. Do you sense that there is that happening, that the aspirations of a decade ago on these ambitious targets? Maybe some people want to walk back a little.
Brian Maas:Well, I think California has always dreamt big and I don't think that's going to change. I think the challenge has been the mandates that have been put in place don't match the rate of progress in some of the things that the environmental community has asked for. The 20-3500% ZEV mandate is one of those. But we've got clean energy requirements. We were going to shut down our last nuclear power plant in California and then folks realized oh well, that's a quarter of the power provided in the state. What's going to replace it? So we've extended the useful life of that power plant. Similar kinds of inquiries are happening around oil refineries. They seem to be closing more frequently and that puts pressure on our fuel infrastructure because, regardless of how ambitious you want to be about zero emission vehicles, internal combustion vehicles are here for a few more decades and we need gasoline, refined gasoline, to go into the tanks of those cars. And if we don't have the refinery capacity, the price of gas is going to go through the roof.
Stewart Muir:Now consumers feel good about EVs right.
Brian Maas:Yeah, generally speaking they do. I think everybody understands that it's great technology and I think a lot of Californians would like to have one. I mentioned the public opinion poll we did. The number one reason consumers cited for not making the transition to a zero emission vehicle is the lack of public charging infrastructure. We're woefully behind what would be required to move to 100% environment.
Stewart Muir:If you're enjoying Power Struggle, make sure to subscribe, like and share this episode, because it helps us bring fact-based energy conversations to more people across Canada and beyond.
Brian Maas:Woefully behind what would be required to move to 100% environment. And if you live in a multifamily dwelling, an apartment building or something like that, you can't charge at home, so you would have to rely on a public charger. Where do you go to get that charged? And just to give you some data points, the state's Energy Commission has said we need a million public chargers by 2030 and two million public chargers by 2035. We only have 178,000 now and we're adding less than 50,000 public chargers a year. We're just not going to get there fast enough to meet the mandate that's on the books now.
Stewart Muir:A little story. I was Coming into Los Angeles with my family. We flew into LAX, it was kind of late at night, busy time of year, and there were a lot of people went to the budget to get the car. I had a car booked and there was this huge lineup where the back of like 200 people lining up. I'm thinking, well, we have like three hour drive ahead of us, we'll get there. The line's moving.
Stewart Muir:But then an employee from budget was coming down the lineup talking to people, I don't know why. And eventually he got to me and this kindly woman said we have a nice offer for you. If you would like, we have that electric Ford Mustang over there. You can take it right now and you can bypass this huge lineup. It's only 50% charged but we're going to give you a discount. And it was Christmas, I think some sort of you know, seasonal incentive. And I thought I'm driving with my family on the highways that I don't know that well through the night I'm not sure what the charging situation will be. I have to take a pass. So we spent an extra half hour waiting but, you know, not one person out of hundreds would take that offer. I was a little surprised. I thought someone would go for it. Maybe word has gotten around. It feels like the public that I was exposed to maybe there were travelers, maybe there were locals coming home, I don't know were kind of not feeling confident about the California charging infrastructure.
Brian Maas:Yeah, I think you know the anecdotal stories from drivers that are dealers here. Is somebody really wants to? You know the anecdotal stories from drivers that are dealers here. Is somebody really wants to? You know they're environmentally conscious. They want to do their part to combat climate change. I'd like to drive an EV. And then they realize when they get it home oh, where do I charge this car? How fast can I charge it? How much does it cost All those kinds of things? And so, as much as some people want to poo-poo it, range anxiety and the availability of public charging infrastructure is a top of mind issue and again we deserve a lot of credit. We're 20% EV market share. That's fantastic, but to get to the next level we're going to have to make significant investments in the charging infrastructure to have tourists like you, stuart, feel comfortable when you're coming into town and renting a car, and people who live in apartment buildings or other places without a garage charger have them feel comfortable.
Stewart Muir:Now I understand that California and some other states are filing a lawsuit against the Trump administration on the lack of funding for building the EV infrastructure. Are they legit?
Brian Maas:The debate a little bit, little bit. My understanding, based on media accounts of the lawsuit, is during the last administration, when biden was president, congress passed ev charging infrastructure funding mechanisms and california and these other states are suing because trump is trying to stop the distribution of those already authorized funds and they're arguing that Congress passed it, president signed it, the money needs to go out the door and the Trump administration is saying no, we don't want to spend that money and that's the nature of the lawsuit. So they're fighting over already allocated funds At this point. California and the other states want the money and the Trump administration is saying no, we don't want to send you the money, we have different priorities.
Stewart Muir:Right Now I'm talking to you from British Columbia, where the government has pursued what I understand to be the most ambitious EV policy, you know, getting to 100% really quickly. So it's one of those probably rare cases where BC or anywhere else is more green than California is because California is so green. But you know, this issue, I think, is bedeviling people who want to make a good choice for the environment in their next vehicle but at the same time they're counting their pennies. Is it more expensive to buy a family level vehicle that's EV compared to a gasoline one in California?
Brian Maas:Yes, it is. Depending on the vehicle and the manufacturer, it can be a few thousand to more than $10,000 price differential between a non-electric and electric version of the same vehicle. And when you're, you know, pinching pennies. That's a difficult choice to make, no matter what your political stance might be or your motivation to switch to an EV. What your political stance might be, or your motivation to switch to an EV, you've got to figure out how to purchase that vehicle, and 80% of vehicles purchased in California are financed. So then you've got to figure out well, what's the interest rate going to be on my loan and all those kinds of factors you have to consider. So it's just another impediment in the transition to electrification.
Stewart Muir:Now suppose that California doesn't get to 35% of new cars sold or electric vehicles by 2026. What will happen? Is there some enforcement behind this?
Brian Maas:That's a great question. So really one of two, two things is going to happen. So the regulation stipulates that a manufacturer that doesn't meet the 35% threshold has to pay a fine of over $20,000 per vehicle. What so? The manufacturers have told our dealers they're not going to pay the fines. So then you say, okay, well, what's the other option? Well, the other option is they're going to restrict allocation of non-EVs to our dealers in order to hit the 35% threshold.
Brian Maas:Easy way to think about it. You've got a hypothetical dealer that sells 100 cars in any period of time. Roughly 20% of those are EVs. That's the statewide average. Well, 20% is not 35%. So in order to get that number 20 to count as 35%, you have to reduce the number 100, the total amount of vehicles sent to that dealer, the total amount of vehicles sent to that dealer to a much lower number, so that 20 now is 35% of the total sold.
Brian Maas:So we think there are going to be profound impacts across the state on the number of available vehicles that consumers otherwise would have access to and be willing to buy. That means they may go to Arizona and Nevada to buy vehicles. It's going to screw up allocation of vehicles nationally. You won't be able to find an EV in Nevada and you won't be able to find an internal combustion engine vehicle in California, all those kinds of things and then it'll be a lower number of vehicles sold, totally, so state and local sales tax revenue will be impacted. And then you start thinking well, what about fleet operators, police fire they need vehicles too. Are they going to be able to get the vehicles that they need? So we're trying to communicate these impacts, and it's the mandate that's the problem, not the goal of electrification, and that's the message we're trying to communicate.
Stewart Muir:Right, so this applies to 2026 year model cars. When do those cars start arriving in the lots?
Brian Maas:Some 26 models, believe it or not, are already arriving at dealerships in BC and in California. At dealerships in BC and in California, and you'll probably see the most profound impact, usually by late summer. Early fall is when most manufacturers start moving through their 25-year model vehicles and moving into 2026.
Stewart Muir:So you must hope you're wrong about this prediction about the lack of vehicles for sale.
Brian Maas:Well, what we're hoping is that we take the manufacturers at their word that they're going to throttle inventory to our dealers, and that's why we're asking the regulators to pause enforcement of the mandate. Don't throw the baby out with the bathwater. You can still move toward 100 percent electrification, but you're going to have to adjust the rule at some future point to do this. Maryland's governor, for example, just issued a pause in enforcement for two years in Maryland. Maryland follows California's rules, so we're using that as an example to say this can be done. Let's delay enforcement until we get a better idea of how we can recalibrate the mandate going forward.
Stewart Muir:Okay. So on electric vehicles, California's got this aggressive plan. We'll soon find out whether it's going to work or not work in the short term, but there's other things going on. You mentioned refineries, and California has been phasing out the oil refineries that create the gasoline that is consumed, like in the movies, all over the great state of California. But in phasing out those refineries, has fuel demand disappeared?
Brian Maas:No, Fuel demand has slowed a bit. Obviously, with more EVs sold, it's not perhaps growing at the pace it used to grow, but fuel demand continues to be significant and you know it's a supply and demand marketplace. So our price of gasoline, the premium that California consumers pay for gas, is a couple bucks a gallon more than the rest of the country and that's significant impact on California consumers.
Stewart Muir:That's pretty interesting. Wasn't there a refinery recently that was going to close down, a company that owned? It said we're going to have to close, but then the authority said do you mind not closing?
Brian Maas:Yeah, I mean I think there's considerable pressure on these companies to try and figure out how to stay open, but we have other environmental rules that impact refineries directly. I'm not an expert in that area. We have what's called a low carbon fuel standard and the idea is people who are producing carbon-based fuels have to pay a premium to do that, and those costs are passed on to consumers at the gas pump. So if refineries can't profitably stay open, it's going to impact the availability and price of gasoline for all of the Californians who need it. And again, just taking new vehicles, 80% of new vehicles sold are not EVs. They're internal combustion or hybrids, so they still need gasoline.
Stewart Muir:So if someone says well, I can't buy the gasoline powered car of my choice here in California, so I'm going to look around. I'm going to go to Arizona oh, there's none there. I'm going to keep going. I'm going to go to Texas or wherever they need to go. They'll find that car and bring it home. When they get home will I have to pay that $20,000 penalty?
Brian Maas:We don't know how that's going to impact. So the way the rule is drafted is if you don't meet the 35%, the manufacturer has to pay the penalty. We don't know how the authorities are going to enforce a rule on that hypothetical customer that finds the car in Texas and tries to bring it back and register in California. Because, unlike prior emission requirements, if it had a catalytic converter you could see that the vehicle does or doesn't have it. You could open the hood, you could verify that. That's true. But you can't tell by looking at a car whether it's a California-compliant ICE vehicle or a non-California-compliant ICE vehicle. They're all the same.
Brian Maas:So we're not sure how the rule is going to be enforced. Under the prior regime there was what we call a 7,500-mile rule, where you couldn't register a vehicle that's non-compliant in California until it has 7,500 miles on the odometer. But again, how do you know whether a vehicle you bought in Texas is a non-compliant vehicle? We don't know how that's going to shake out. It's just another uncertainty piled on top of all these other uncertainties. And again, why we're asking for a pause in enforcement until we can figure all this out.
Stewart Muir:Well, look, it's uncanny how similar a lot of the California rules on EVs and what you've been describing are to British Columbia. Like the same years, very similar target numbers, even $20,000. That's a number. Initially there was a penalty of $5,000 per car over this quota in British Columbia, but then they changed it a year ago. I heard when is this coming from? Who's thinking up the exact same thing? And then California and BC are adopting virtually the same policy. Bc's a little more aggressive. Is that coming from the governments themselves or some other source?
Brian Maas:It's a good question. I think there are folks in the environmental community want to accelerate the transition to electrification. They're prevailing upon the leaders of governments to take that mantle and demonstrate to their citizenry and other jurisdictions that this can be done. So that's how you get a 100% zero emission vehicle mandate by 2035 in California. That's how BC gets its mandate. People want to be leaders and demonstrate that they're doing their part to move this transition forward. Unfortunately, when the mandate is too far out front of the market, you have the present situation we've been talking about the last few minutes, stuart is you've got a rule that's far ahead of where the reality is and we're going to have some real difficulty this summer unless there's a pause.
Stewart Muir:I've always wanted to ask this question to someone in your position, Brian. Are gasoline cars getting more efficient in terms of emissions?
Brian Maas:Absolutely. The vehicles on the road today don't emit criteria-pollutant smog-producing gases virtually at all. What the fight is over is greenhouse gases, which is largely carbon dioxide, and if you have an internal combustion engine and you burn fuel, you're going to produce carbon dioxide, but the kind of pollutants that created the smoggy environments in Los Angeles in the 70s. Virtually no vehicle is producing those things anymore in the light duty market. So these are extremely clean vehicles. They're highly fuel efficient. You can buy hybrid sedans that are averaging over 50 miles a gallon and you can buy them for $30,000. So you can get great fuel economy. You can get very clean vehicles with internal combustion engine technologies, but what you can't do, at least as of today, is have an ICE vehicle that doesn't burn CO2. And that, ultimately, is the reason why environmentalists and these regulators want to transition to electric vehicles, because, of course, they don't produce any carbon dioxide.
Stewart Muir:Now is the amount of CO2 released in these latest cars less than it used to be, or the same?
Brian Maas:Sure, especially on a per mile basis, used to be. Or the same Sure, Especially on a per mile basis. You know the more fuel efficient the vehicle is, the less fuel that's going to burn. So if you can add hybrid technology to these vehicles and or you can make them go further on a gallon of gasoline you're burning less gas per mile driven. That helps the environment.
Stewart Muir:Right Now I'm reasonably sure that the car choice I make in British Columbia, or if I was in Quebec or Massachusetts, that choice wouldn't affect the kind of car you have to drive in California. But is it true that the cars you have in California determine the cars that everyone else has to drive?
Brian Maas:Well, to some extent. California is the fourth largest economy in the world. One out of every eight new cars sold in the United States is sold in California, and we have the Air Resources Board that dictates environmental policy not just for California but the 11 other states that follow California.
Stewart Muir:And that's been, from a pollution point of view, pretty positive impact.
Brian Maas:Absolutely. You know as much as I can criticize the current EV mandate as drafted, it's indisputable that the Air Resources Board has done a very effective job in pushing the manufacturers to build more fuel efficient and less polluting vehicles, and society and the industry and everybody deserves a ton of credit for that change. The air is a lot cleaner now than it was 50 years ago, in large part because of the policies the Air Resources Board has adopted.
Stewart Muir:And that's been a profitable business for the manufacturers of those cars, I take it.
Brian Maas:It has. They've had to make lots of significant adjustments to meet those mandates, the prior mandates, but they've done so and have remained profitable, with, of course, the exception of the Great Recession in 2008-09.
Stewart Muir:Now, what are the biggest sellers from American manufacturers of EVs in California, or what brands?
Brian Maas:The top EV sellers in California are Tesla. The Model 3 and the Model Y are the top two EV sellers. Model 3 and the Model Y are the top two EV sellers, but close behind them are some of the Hyundai vehicles, the Ford Mustang, and of the top 25 EVs, four of them are Tesla and the rest are distributed across all the other major manufacturers. So the EV marketplace looks considerably different than it did five or 10 years ago. Tesla dominated the market. They were the only real game in town, with a possible exception of the Nissan Leaf. Well, now virtually every manufacturer's got an EV or multiple EVs, got an EV or multiple EVs, and non-Tesla manufacturers have now exceeded Tesla's market share in EVs for the first time in California.
Stewart Muir:Now I told you about my experience at LAX and you told me about the lack of chargers. Are these EVs flying off the lot?
Brian Maas:No, unfortunately, our sales have stagnated a bit over the last eight quarters. We produce on our website a report every quarter that tracks vehicle registrations in our state and we can see you know what the trends are. What the trends are, and largely because Tesla sales have been dropping substantially even though other EV sales have been increasing, it hasn't been enough to increase the EV market share very much. So we've kind of stagnated at about the 20, 21% EV market share threshold over the last couple of years and we're not making the kind of progress we need to meet the 35% threshold we talked about earlier.
Stewart Muir:So we talked about 2026 models. What do you think will happen in 2027?
Brian Maas:It's a great question. Obviously, the manufacturers have long-term product cycles. It takes something like five years from the concept of a vehicle to be mass-produced. So they were thinking about 2027 vehicles back in 2022. They're coming. There'll be more EVs available in 2027 for consumers to choose from. What happens with the policy environment whether this ZEV mandate stays in place, the impact of tariffs or other public policy changes is going to have a dramatic impact on the market, but the pipeline is already in process for the 27 vehicles.
Stewart Muir:But the pipeline is already in process for the 27 vehicles. Now, against the backdrop of all this happening in California and hey, similar in BC could be available in every driveway in the country if they were allowed to be, and consumers would probably be very happy to have those low-priced cars.
Brian Maas:Yeah, it's a public policy challenge and it's the intersection of whether you allow cheaper, more inexpensive EVs that are produced in China or elsewhere into the market versus the public policy, foreign policy concerns of are they going to undermine the ability of domestic or North American manufacturers from being able to transition to EVs?
Brian Maas:If BYD is the biggest EV manufacturer in the world now it's past Tesla, a large Chinese company. They've had great success in Brazil and Mexico producing EVs. They're substantially cheaper than many of the EVs available now. If you opened up the market to BYD, they'd probably sell a lot of EVs, no doubt, but at the expense of the financial health of North American manufacturers and then their foreign policy concerns. Do we, as Americans, want Chinese companies coming to the United States and dominating what had traditionally been an important domestic or North American industry? And that's the policy debate that's going on right now. Interestingly, both the Biden administration and the Trump administration agreed not to let Chinese vehicles in to the United States, so so far they're not here, but I think that debate is going to continue to rage in the coming years.
Stewart Muir:Now I believe the Canadian government, as soon as President Biden did what you just said, followed suit. This whole issue of EVs yes or no, or the pace it can be one of those issues that seems to be assumed to be a proxy for how you feel about the environment or other issues, social or economic issues, fairly or unfairly. How do you think Californians are feeling about this issue? Do they feel divided? Do they feel that they're going down the right road or not? Going down the right road Is? Is this, is this simple issue of what kind of car you buy having, you know, a deeper influence on how people think and feel?
Brian Maas:Yeah, I mean uh, as you said at the top, stuart, I mean California invented car culture and in certain markets of the state you know, especially Los Angeles, what you drive is a representation of who you are and it's very important for those consumers to have the vehicle that they want to represent the kind of person that they are.
Brian Maas:You saw that manifested by the significant market share that Tesla had. Well, now that Mr Musk has become politically controversial and has been participating in the Trump administration, you have a lot of Californians and, frankly, tesla owners across the country who are conflicted by that. On the one hand, they love driving an EV, they want to support electrification and what have you, but they don't necessarily want to be associated with Mr Musk or the Tesla brand any longer. So I think you're starting to see that conflict kind of play itself out in the minds of Californians and those that would like to make a statement about I'm supporting electrification of the vehicle fleet by the vehicle I own. If the vehicle they own is a Tesla, they're conflicted right now. Here in British Columbia, we often look to California as a model for a lot of things. If the vehicle they own is a Tesla they're conflicted right now.
Stewart Muir:Here in British Columbia, we often look to California as a model for a lot of things Same climate goals, same clean energy talk, and both of us on the left coast of our countries, as we say in British Columbia.
Brian Maas:That is another thing in common, Brian from your perspective, what should British Columbians be watching most carefully as we shape our energy path here, as we're following a little bit behind you?
Brian Maas:Yeah, I think, for all of us who are interested in addressing climate change, we have to be willing to accept progress and that progress may not happen as rapidly as some might wish, as rapidly as some might wish, and we have to be willing to take credit for moving the ball forward and understand that things may not happen quite as quickly as some would like, especially when you're transitioning, in the case of electric vehicles, from technology that consumers have been using for over 100 years internal combustion engine vehicles. You can't just snap your fingers and say we're going to go from 100 years of ICE vehicles. We have 280 million ICE vehicles on the road in the United States. We're going to get rid of all those and we're going to go to EVs in a matter of a decade. It's just not going to be possible. So how do we design policies to accelerate that progress while recognizing that it is a transition and it's going to take time?
Stewart Muir:Yeah, and you have all the green electricity you need to do that right.
Brian Maas:Not quite. We're obviously making significant progress in that regard but depending on you know the weather or the status of fires or what have you, we may have to import natural gas. You know solar doesn't work at 3 am. You know solar doesn't work at 3 am, so we need battery storage to get through those things. So we're making significant progress, but we've got a ways to go.
Stewart Muir:Well, it's just as well you didn't shut down that last nuclear plant in the state you mentioned. Look, is there one policy move or structural decision that California has made that you think in BC we would be well advised to replicate?
Brian Maas:That's a good question. I think encouraging a diverse group of renewable energy options is a smart policy and, by and large, california has done a good job of encouraging solar, wind, biofuels, nuclear, whatever it's going to be. A diverse mix is going to make the most sense long term. A one size fits all energy solution, I think, could lead to bottlenecks or problems down the road. So the other thing I would say is it's one thing to encourage these technologies, it's another thing to mandate these technologies and, as we talked about at length about electric vehicles, if you're requiring a certain number, be hit by a certain date and the market isn't ready or prepared to get you there, you're going to have a policy roadblock that's going to create difficulty for BC residents or, in our case, californians.
Stewart Muir:Quick little game. I'm going to make a statement and you say red flag or green light and give me a sentence on why. Number one tiered EV mandate starting 2027.
Brian Maas:Red flag, and the reason is we're not prepared to meet the mandates that California has developed so far.
Stewart Muir:New hydro megaproject to power chargers.
Brian Maas:I guess I'd say green flag. The challenge is where do you build this hydro project? Which river or lake are you going to dam to produce that power? Hydropower should be part of the solution.
Stewart Muir:Moratorium on new refining capacity.
Brian Maas:Absolute red flag. You can't have an effective transition from ICE to EV by cutting off the ability to fuel ICE vehicles. You've got to have enough refinery capacity to get us through the transition.
Stewart Muir:Subsidy swap Income-tested purchase grants.
Brian Maas:Generally speaking, I'd give that a red flag. If you want to encourage the purchase of vehicles, say you need to price the vehicles at an effective price so that folks of all economic means are interested in buying it. Governments don't have enough credit money to dole out credits to everybody for everything, so it's incentivizing manufacturers to make the vehicles at the retail price that's effective, not adding on government credits Long term. That's not the right solution.
Stewart Muir:Okay, last one Tesla Cybertruck in every driveway.
Brian Maas:Red flag. I represent franchise new car dealers. Tesla doesn't use franchisees, so if they use franchise dealers, love for them to compete and have a Cybertruck in everybody's driveway, but since they don't use franchise dealers, I'm not a fan.
Stewart Muir:This has been absolutely fascinating. I'm curious, though you probably represent, through the dealers that are members of your association, a lot of different brands and models. What's the buzziest car model coming out in 2026 in California? What are people really excited about?
Brian Maas:But boy, that's a. That's a tough question to ask. I think people are looking at new EV models and saying, wow, some of these vehicles. You know you had the VW ID Buzz. You know a reincarnation of the old VW bus. A lot of people were interested in that. Kia and Hyundai are producing larger SUVs that are EVs. A lot of people are looking at those vehicles. Cadillac's coming out with a significant number of EVs, so I think there's a lot of interest in these things. The challenge is, with the policy uncertainty and the discussion around, you know our price is going to go up, or what have you. I think the excitement over the introduction of these new vehicles has been tempered somewhat while we wait to see how the dust settles with some of the policy changes that are happening.
Stewart Muir:How about Rolls-Royce? Do they have an EV yet?
Brian Maas:I'm not aware that they do.
Stewart Muir:I heard they were talking about one, but I didn't see it was out there. What about Bentley or Maybach or some of those ultra prestigious Hollywood star kind of cars?
Brian Maas:Yeah, I think I saw that Bentley was going to be producing an EV, but that's probably out of year in my price range.
Stewart Muir:Yeah, yeah, what do you drive?
Brian Maas:I drive a Lexus plug-in electric hybrid.
Stewart Muir:Lexus plug-in. Well, it must be a good choice, because you have all the information on what's the best car. So I'll remember that one when I go car shopping one of these years.
Brian Maas:Fantastic.
Stewart Muir:Look, Brian, it's been amazing. I'm kind of a car geek, so this could go long, but we better not subject our listeners at Power Struggle to that and we'll leave them with the best of this conversation. So, to our listeners and watchers, if this conversation gave you something to think about, consider subscribing, which you can do through all the usual channels, including YouTube, and if you're listening on Apple or Spotify or any other podcasting app, why not leave a review If you like this? Wherever I go, I go to a lot of conferences People are telling me we're doing good work here. They appreciate it. Power Struggle is addressing what we call the energy trilemma. You know these aren't easy things and what Brian has described this afternoon is not simple stuff. You know, people trying to do the right thing, but also reality intrudes in ways that aren't necessarily expected. So I'd love to hear your comments about what Brian's been talking about today. And to you, Brian, thank you for being here. Really appreciate giving that perspective today. So thanks a lot.
Brian Maas:Thanks for having me, stuart, really enjoyed the conversation.
