What’s Really Changing in Global Energy and Geopolitics with Robert Johnston

Is the world entering a new era of energy instability — and is Canada ready for it?

In this episode, Stewart Muir is joined by Robert (R.J.) Johnston, Director of Energy and Natural Resources Policy at the University of Calgary and former CEO of Eurasia Group, to unpack the geopolitical forces reshaping global energy markets.

From rising tensions in the Middle East to shifting U.S. policy and growing competition for critical resources, Johnston explains why energy security is once again at the center of global decision-making.

They discuss:

• Why global energy markets are becoming more unstable
 • The changing role of the United States in global trade and energy
 • Canada’s opportunity — and why it hasn’t been fully realized
 • LNG, oil exports, and the importance of market diversification
 • The impact of geopolitical conflict on energy security
 • Critical minerals, AI, and the growing demand for resources like copper
 • The future of energy transition and shifting climate priorities
 • What business leaders are most concerned about right now

This is a conversation about energy, power, and uncertainty in a world where geopolitics and markets are increasingly intertwined.

At a time of global disruption — from Ukraine to the Persian Gulf — energy is no longer just an economic issue, but a strategic one.

The question is no longer whether the world needs reliable energy — but which countries are prepared to supply it.

#PowerStruggle #RobertJohnston #EnergyPolicy #GlobalEnergy #Geopolitics #EnergySecurity #OilAndGas #LNG #CriticalMinerals #CanadaEnergy

The energy conversation is polarizing. But the reality is multidimensional. Get the full story with host Stewart Muir.

Reach out to us with thoughts, questions, or ideas at info@powerstruggle.ca

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Transcript

SPEAKER_01 0:13

Welcome back to Power Struggle. I'm your host, Stuart Muir. Today, we're joined by Robert R.J. Johnston. RJ has spent his career at the intersection of global energy, geopolitics, and public policy. Until recently, he led research at Columbia University Center on Global Energy Policy and previously served as CEO of the Eurasia Group, one of the world's leading geopolitical risk consultancies. His work is focused on energy markets, geopolitics, national policy, and how countries like Canada navigate a world where energy security, climate policy, and global competition are increasingly intertwined. RJ, welcome back to Power Struggle. Great to see you, Stuart. Thanks for having me again. President Trump was coming into office. What I didn't know then was that you were on your way out of New York and back to your home country of Canada. And now you're Director of Energy and Natural Resources Policy at the University of Calgary's School of Public Policy. What's it like to be back in Canada?

SPEAKER_00 1:18

Yeah, it's really great. I uh I was in the U.S. for 25 years and uh mostly between DC and New York. Columbia was a great institution, but um I thought that with everything happening in the world uh for Canada and for Canadian Energy, change of government Ottawa, the tensions with the U.S. and the Trump administration, uh, you know, building new export links, stage specific markets, um, it was a great time to come back. And that, you know, so far so good. It's been people have been very welcoming, and there's been lots of uh interesting projects to dive into.

Global Instability And The US Reset

SPEAKER_01 1:50

Last week you and I were both in Toronto. Critical minerals was on the agenda. We both sat in the room as the energy historian, the great Daniel Jurgen, told us about a future that he sees in which copper, the most sought-after energy medal in the world, emerges as a commodity almost with the strategic weight of oil. Uh, this week we met up in Ottawa. We heard the energy minister of Canada, Tim Hodgson, lay out his pathway for Canada to become this energy superpower. And we've talked about that in Canada since Stephen Harper's time when he started talking about that potential. But we're not there yet. And we've got smoldering oil tankers blocking the Strait of Hormuz. The the energy system of Ukraine is close to collapse, and Putin just doubling down on that. It it is uh a moment for the advice and and uh vision you've got, RJ, to to really come into its own, not that it wasn't we need your help here. Um what's going on in the world?

Canada’s Export Projects Gain Leverage

SPEAKER_00 2:45

Aaron Powell Yeah, it's so many different layers to to unpack. You know, I think we have to start with um the things that are most immediate for us, which is what's happening with the United States. Um and I think the question I'm getting more often than anything else is, you know, are are we ever gonna go back to normal? Will it be after the midterms? Will it be in the next presidential administration? And and my answer uh without having a crystal ball is that um I think that some things will renormalize. I think I think the tone will be different. I think that um Canada will be seen as more of a partner in solving problems globally for the US, like we have been historically. But some things also won't change, right? I think the the desire for the US to confront China will still be there. I think the desire for the US to have a more managed trade approach and to um, you know, maybe not be as fully liberalized and globalized as they have been in the past won't change either. And I think globally, um, US will be dealing with a lot more instability in a continued way, whether it's Ukraine, whether it's Taiwan, whether it's uh the Persian Gulf. And and so what can Canada do about all that? I think I would agree with the consensus view that you know the more we can diversify our markets and expand our natural resources sector, you know, the more resilient we're likely to be in in dealing with all this uncertainty.

SPEAKER_01 4:01

Aaron Powell We've had a decade in which the general look back is we fail to grasp the opportunity for Canada to become this superpower country. Clearly that is the case. But where do we go from here?

SPEAKER_00 4:14

Aaron Powell Well I think, you know, there's definitely been uh we haven't lived up to our full potential. But I think we've planned the seeds in a few areas that we can build upon, right? I think that the the Trans Mountain expansion, the LNG Canada project, the the beginnings of a successful model of indigenous partnership has de-risked uh what had been a very fraught area in the past. Not completely, of course, but but progress in the right direction. And we are starting to see the outlines of a of a winning strategy for nuclear and for critical minerals. So I think some of the hard work of the last decade is paying off. Uh, but I agree with you completely that we have to really accelerate uh and we certainly can't afford to wait another decade. Things have to happen a lot faster.

SPEAKER_01 4:56

Aaron Powell You just mentioned two projects that came on in the last 18 months in Canada, last within the last two years, um the Transmountain Expansion and LNG Canada. Let's talk about that because they have measurably made a difference, not just for Canadian GDP, but they've given us a kind of clout in the world, haven't they?

SPEAKER_00 5:13

Aaron Powell I think it's starting to. I think it's certainly interesting that uh, you know, since those projects have come in line, we've seen um you know this deterioration in the Middle East in particular, on top of a particular prior crisis in Russia and Ukraine. Uh, and that is certainly elevating um awareness of insecurity and vulnerability in global oil and gas markets. And it sort of gives Canada a chance to actually demonstrate our potential to help uh versus talking about it in more theoretical terms. So we have real projects that have real links to those global markets. Um however, as you know, those are sort of going to be hitting capacity pretty soon, and we need to add more.

Hormuz Disruption And Energy Security

SPEAKER_01 5:51

Aaron Powell Now, what specifically, say Transmountain, that's getting oil sands product through a new pipeline, putting it on ships, and that is then getting to the world. What do you see as what's going on? Like who's interested in buying this? Why are they interested in buying it? What does it mean that Canada is in those markets?

SPEAKER_00 6:07

Aaron Powell Yeah, it's a great question. I think that under normal market conditions, there's one level of interest, which is you know, the Chinese or Indians want to diversify their markets. Uh they want to have as many suppliers as possible so that they can have some, you know, uh flexibility and competition and access in the market. But these are not normal times. Like clearly now we have significant unprecedented uh supply outages in the Straits of Hormuz in Iran and the Persian Gulf. Uh, and that means that uh we're flipping from sort of normal market diversification to much more acute uh crisis conditions. Now no one knows how long those crisis conditions will last. Will we renormalize? My guess is probably not, not back to where we were a few weeks ago, but perhaps de-escalating from where we are today. Nonetheless, I think the energy security agenda and the appeal of Canada's a partner uh is going to be higher uh than it has been because of this uh you know geopolitical disruption we've seen at really unprecedented levels in both Russia and the Middle East.

SPEAKER_01 7:10

Now, Prime Minister Carney has started his era in office as a globetrotter. Usually that's something that prime ministers do on the way out when they're uh spent force and they're making friends around the world. But he's actually starting. What what is he trying to do? What does it mean that he's gone to um a whole bunch of countries successively? He's signing deals. What do you think RJ is in his mind uh right now?

SPEAKER_00 7:32

Yeah, as as you know, I mean team candidate missions are not new, including to pretty much all the countries he's going to. I think what's new this time is that um energy and resources are playing a prominent role, right? That um if you look at South Korea or or Indonesia or India, um, you know, they're they're all looking for energy and resources, as you know. Um, and can that be the wedge to open up other forms of trade for Canada as well? And not just trade, but also investment, the two-way investment. If we're gonna build out more export infrastructure here, if we're gonna grow our upstream production, build more LNG projects, build critical mineral smelters, build SMR, you know, the giant capital pools that exist in the Middle East and Asia are just as attractive to us as their markets from an extra perspective. So I like an approach balancing both trade and investment. Kearney seems to be leaning into that, also leaning into building kind of geopolitical uh and diplomatic alliances to kind of, you know, the we often hear Kearney talk about hegemon, hegemonic, right? That doesn't refer to the US as that directly, but US, Russia, China all sort of in the same category, and idea of the middle powers kind of uniting against them. So there's a commercial aspect and a diplomatic aspect aspect clearly to his travel.

SPEAKER_01 8:44

Aaron Powell Why don't we just go back a little ways to earlier this year? The Prime Minister went to Davos in Switzerland. He made a speech then. Lots of speeches get made every year at Davos, and you're a regular at Davos, eh? What happened in Davos with with Prime Minister Kearney this year that's different than normal? Aaron Ross Powell, Jr.

SPEAKER_00 9:00

Well, as interesting that came right in the back of the Greenland crisis. It's hard to believe we're calling that a crisis with everything else going on in the world, but it was. Um in the sense that the Europeans in particular were almost at their peak frustration with the Trump administration. Uh and so Kearney's messaging on middle power cooperation, which really means Western Europe, Japan, Korea, some of the big emerging markets like Brazil, India, et cetera, um, was very well received. And that a sense that um if this is the sort of the new way of doing business in the US, then there needs to be a response that it that is firm but is open to you know getting back to more rules-based multilateral trade and and uh and diplomacy. Um but in in the absence of that, there's a strong incentive for these countries to work together. Now, can Canada fall through? It's interesting that right after that, you know, Trump convened this critical mineral summit in Washington, and all the thoughts about middle power cooperation kind of went out the window because a bunch of these countries signed on to a US-led, you know, uh critical mineral stockpiling and price for initiative that I think Canada would have preferred to have been dealt with through, you know, the G7 or the IEA or multilateral channels. So it's one thing to give a speech, another thing to actually get these countries to uh to change their behavior.

SPEAKER_01 10:22

Venezuela seemed pretty easy to topple over. Green land, Trump could push around. How's it gonna go with Iran?

SPEAKER_00 10:30

You know, Iran's had a long, long time to prepare for this. And you know, I think Trump's right that their short to medium term future doesn't seem particularly promising from a military perspective. Um it doesn't look like the Russians and Chinese will help them very much. Um it's not clear how much capacity they have in terms of the drones and missiles that they're relying on. You know, they they haven't really there's two or three things that people have speculated about that haven't fortunately have not happened yet. One is cyber attacks. Uh, two is terrorism in the homeland, meaning US, Western Europe, Canada, uh, and three is the use of some kind of you know dirty bomb or chemical, biological, radiological weapon. Um you know, I think the longer this crisis goes and the more Iran feels isolated and that their survival's at stake, um I think the greater the risk that we see those kinds of firewalls uh break down. You know, attacking and destabilizing the streets of Hormuz also hurts the Iranians and their own efforts to get oil out, but it's a sign of how desperate they are. Alienating their Gulf Cooperation Council, I wouldn't call them allies, but their neighbors, uh, is is destabilizing as well. But it just seems like the Iranians feel like they don't have a choice. So yes, very different than Venezuela. And I think the two key questions are number one, uh, does Trump have a clear end game in mind here or not? And number two, in that end game, what kind of government do we get in Iran? Is it a Western-friendly government? Does the country splinter? Do we get like a Libya or Iraq type situation? What is the relationship with the GCC countries like Saudi Arabia? Uh, and and and do they have the ability to meet basic needs, food, electricity, natural gas, uh, transportation, education, public health? Uh, or will the U.S. and the neighboring countries have to go in and really help provide those services? So, yeah, this is a very different situation in Venezuela and one that uh still I think has some significant chapters ahead.

Building More Oil And LNG Capacity

SPEAKER_01 12:30

Aaron Powell With Canada emerging as a global exporter of the crude oil that clearly the world needs, what do you think the potential is to develop the resources that we have, primarily in northern Alberta, and get them to the world in greater amounts than we have right now?

SPEAKER_00 12:46

Aaron Powell Well, there's two things. One is the market side, another is the the kind of political side. I think on the market side, um the last two or three years have really been characterized by what I would call an incrementalist approach by industry, right? That they have support for growth from their shareholders, but in a very limited way. Uh brownfield projects, small expansions, kind of reinvestment, but mostly returning their key free cash flow in the firm's form of dividends or share buybacks. Um if the surviving crisis continues uh and the Russia situation continues, the market may move into more of a structural deficit where the industry sees sustained high prices, sustained kind of underproduction, and that could lead to a loosening of the capital controls and more more investment. On the political side, of course, I think there's support broadly for West Coast market access, but there are significant differences on what that looks like. Is it the transmountain expansion enough? Do we need uh what the government of Alberta wants, which is a North Coast pipeline? Is there a third route out there somewhere through Northern BC or Roberts Bank or through Churchill that could make sense? What about Keystone coming back? So it's good that we have this consensus on we need more market access, which is very different than the debate five or ten years ago. But I still think we haven't quite landed on the path. Whereas in LNG, we have, you know, live projects, we have proponents, we have off take, we have indigenous partnerships. And hearing Minister Hodgson, the Prime Minister, talking about 50 million or even 100 million tons of LNG doesn't sound crazy. So that's a good thing.

SPEAKER_01 14:25

Do you think the demand is there for natural gas abroad for LNG?

SPEAKER_00 14:30

I do, but um unfortunately I think uh what's happened in Qatar does help us in one sense. That having an attack against one of the world's largest LNG facilities, having this big sp price spike in LNG, which is quite larger than the oil price spike. Uh unfortunately it does sort of destroy demand too, right? That it makes some of the Asian governments decide, you know, we should be limited to how much LNG we take. We should just stick with coal and try to bring in more renewables over time. Um the flip side of that is I think whatever LNG they want, I think they want to come from more stable markets, which is the opportunity for Canada. So I do think this current crisis is a bit of a headwind for LNG demand growth. Uh, but there's still plenty of demand growth there, and I think it will be swinging towards market like markets like Canada, which have less geopolitical risk.

Climate Policy And Transition Throttle

SPEAKER_01 15:20

Under the last decade, Canada invested heavily in what might be called ESG for shorthand, you know, climate policies, making sure that the story that we bring to the world is of this ever-improving commodity that any country that's signed on to the Paris Accord that wants to improve its use of energy can say, hey, a Canadian product is doing that for us. Have we succeeded with that? Have we been convincing as a country?

SPEAKER_00 15:46

Well, I think we will also struggle to convince ourselves of that strategy. But I would say from an industry point of view, not just in Canada, but even in the US, most of the oil and gas companies I talk to still think that the long-term trajectory is for a you know a carbon constrained world where there'll be growing regulatory pressure through carbon pricing, through regulations on the emissions that are coming from oil and gas uh production and consumption. Um but I think those same companies also feel like that's that timeline has gotten a little bit longer and the short-term prioritization has shifted a little bit. But that's different than saying that they've abandoned it completely and moved to a more uh you know pragmatic uh model where they're just not focused on climate at all. So I think the energy transition is sort of um not an on-off switch. I like to think it's more of a throttle up and throttle down. So yes, last 10 years Canada had throttled on almost full blast under the previous government. Um now the throttle has been pulled back. But I do think it's important that Canada continue to invest in both policy and technology that will position us for an energy transition. But we shouldn't we should try if we can to avoid doing that at the expense of the our adjacent opportunities around you know oil and gas as well.

Copper Uranium And AI Demand

SPEAKER_01 17:04

RJ, what was your takeaway from Daniel Jurgen's talk about copper in the age of AI?

SPEAKER_00 17:10

Aaron Ross Powell Fascinating stuff. I was at a big copper mine in Arizona just before that, so I very much had copper on the mind. Um and I think um I'm I'm maybe a little more cautious in the AI story than a lot of other people are. I think that the copper market, the uranium market, the natural gas market have priced in this very strong demand story around AI. And I do think the demand growth is there, but you know, these are really very strong uh market dynamics and reflecting kind of almost like unconstrained AI growth. The IEA has four cases for AI and energy use, and I think you know the markets are pricing in the highest one. Um copper itself, I think, is interesting because unlike say natural gas, I think there are real supply constraints. Right? The constraints around natural gas are really more geopolitical. There's lots of natural gas resources in Russia and Iran and Venezuela and these places with copper, we just don't have enough of it anywhere, right? Deteriorating ore grade, high costs, um, you know, and that's reflected in in the prices, but also the sense that on the same time you're having this unprecedented demand growth around the mega trends of AI and electrification. Um, so can Canada participate in that? It's great to see that we have copper products in our major projects list. It's great to see that those projects have indigenous partnerships. It's great to see about people talking about smelting and refining. Um, but we need a lot more. And I think that means more exploration and trying to shorten those timelines between exploration and actual production on the copper side. Uranium is a great story. Euro PDAC, it was all nuclear, all uranium all the time, which is a good story for Canada as well. Um, and then I think on the natural gas side, yes, the US data centers will be a big magnet for our AI or for our natural gas. Um, the rest of the world, though, I think it's mostly China and the Persian Gulf. And, you know, China will mostly be coal and renewables, the Persian Gulf will supply their own energy. So how do we think about the the U.S. opportunity? Do we want to sell electricity, do we want to sell natural gas, or do we want our own data centers, or do we want to export LNG? And how how do all those pieces come together? So the gas allocation conversation would be very interesting though in the in the years and months ahead.

US Shale Dubai And Canada’s Next Bets

SPEAKER_01 19:19

Let's look at the United States. In only a few years, they went from being an energy importer, oil importer, to an oil exporter, not just any old oil exporter, the biggest in the world. How long will that last? Because it's based on an asset that doesn't have an infinite life. What do you think the future holds for the U.S.? I mean, they they are the king of the world with exporting oil, but they can't even get oil to California without shipping it around through the Panama Canal.

SPEAKER_00 19:46

Trevor Burrus, Jr. Well, there's a lot of questions about shale and sustainability of it, and it's clearly not in the long term as reliable a resource as something like Doyle Sands or some of the deep water plays. And part of me thinks that Trump's sort of focus on oil empire and Venezuela and Iran and doing the deals with the Russians reflects a sense that maybe they don't think the shale will be as stronger for longer uh as they may have thought a few years ago. That said, right now it looks like the main constraints on shale production are things like tariffs and sort of oil prices rather than anything geological. Um but yeah, I'm not sure that the US some people are saying the Saudis are are basically waiting out the US shale, right? That they're holding back their own production uh until there's a time when, you know, maybe five, ten years down the road, US shale is not back to where we were in 2005, but maybe 20%, 40% lower than it is today. That would be a huge change and a big opportunity for Canada, and it's something we should watch closely. Um, but it's not gonna happen uh, you know, it's not gonna happen the next two or three years. I think the U.S. still has a pretty strong run in the short term as an exporter and producer.

SPEAKER_01 20:53

Aaron Powell In the past couple of decades, we've seen the emergence of a place that most of us had never heard of not too long ago, Dubai, to become this incredible city that attracts expats. It has exotic luxury lifestyles and it's on reality TV and everything. What's the story of Dubai? Well, why did the place like that emerge? What does it mean in the world? And now that missiles are and drones are flying into it, what what does its future look like?

SPEAKER_00 21:20

Well, Dubai is one of the of the United Arab Emirates, right? It's one of one of the, uh I believe, six uh provinces of the Emirates within the United Arab Emirates. Abu Dhabi is more the oil superpower, right? They're the ones that have four, four or five million barrels a day of production, a lot of petrochemical activity, a lot of refining activity. Dubai is a f financial center, so it's almost like New York and Houston, uh, with a little bit of Las Vegas thrown in, right? That Dubai is famous for being a financial hub uh for all the other activity in the region, a real estate hub, a tourism hub, um, and and culturally closer to sort of Western, Western lifestyle and and and values. Um, but equally Vulnerable to the attacks from the Iranians in terms of its geography. So I think the success of the UAE has been is both that they've had the traditional oil production from from Abu Dhabi, but also been able to diversify into finance and real estate and technology through Dubai and become a regional transportation hub. So that that suggests that they've had successful market diversification and not just tied to oil as much as they used to be. And they've been seeing the Saudi's sort of little brother as often described, working with them on OPEC, but also on the security side, dealing with Yemen, dealing with Sudan, and of course dealing with Iran. All that puts them very much in the target for the Iranians.

SPEAKER_01 22:43

Now, investors might be wondering: is this the time to go into Dubai? Is this the time to move my business there, to put capital there? Or is it kind of going the other way? What do you think is going to happen?

SPEAKER_00 22:53

Aaron Powell Thinking about Dubai and the opportunity to invest there. Right now may not be the very best time, of course, but pretty good window into a much larger world that most Canadians don't think about, right, which is the entire kind of Indo-Pacific region. We maybe we think about Japan or we think about China, but between Dubai and Vietnam, for example, you're talking, you know, three billion people. And Dubai is a really key gateway for that market. It brings together India, Central Asia, uh the per the Persian Gulf countries, um, Africa. So, yes, I think if you're if you want to be of access to those markets, Dubai is the place to be. But obviously, the next three to six months looks like a very uh challenging time to do anything there on the ground.

SPEAKER_01 23:37

You know, when I was in my twenties, the place to be, as someone on the the west coast of North America, was China, Hong Kong. That's where I spent some some time in my early years of my career. That was a hot place. The Pacific Century. Now it seems like it's shifted to the Middle East. Do you think that's true? Do you think that is kind of a generational vibe?

SPEAKER_00 23:55

Aaron Powell I think there's been a bit of a shift from China further south and further east, uh, in the sense that um the geopolitical tensions between China, Canada, and the U.S. doesn't preclude all forms of investment and trade. It's also been happening for 20 or 30 years, right? The Southeast Asian countries, South Asian countries, the Gulf are newer, to your point, uh, are more threshold markets, and markets where Canada has very little presence. So, yes, there's big opportunities to grow there, even as we continue to harvest opportunities in Northeast Asia as well.

Calgary Leaders And Getting Projects Done

SPEAKER_01 24:30

Aaron Powell RJ, you've come back to Canada. You're in Calgary, the oil capital of the country. It's the the Houston of Canada. What did you find upon your arrival and since you've bedded in there at the university, uh what what do you see as being the evolving story uh for ourselves of how we think of Canada in the world, in in the city that is the center of oil and gas?

SPEAKER_00 24:55

I would say three things. First, that um it's a better time for federal, provincial, and industry indigenous relations than it has been for most of my career. So I think I came at a good time where there's more not a perfect situation, but more cooperation than there was. Um secondly, this university is an amazing place for technology and innovation. And the number of colleagues I have who are working on all aspects of energy transition, energy security, critical minerals uh is amazing. Um and then thirdly, yes, it is an oil capital and a natural gas capital, but a lot of the work that people are interested in here is on small module reactors and nuclear, uh, and and is on things like critical minerals uh and even renewables still, so hydrogen. So hopefully, like Houston, Calgary can transition, that's a tricky word, but be an energy hub just as much as an oil and gas hub.

SPEAKER_01 25:49

When you interact with students, uh what what are you hearing about their hopes and dreams for the future?

SPEAKER_00 25:55

Aaron Powell Great students here, two observations. One is they're not that interested in the US compared to the rest of the world, which is different than my time. And number two, um they're very interested in the age electricity, as the IA calls it, and the opportunities around the grid, around critical minerals and supply chains, around electricity markets, decarbonization, AI, immense interest in those areas. And you know, the the days in the 1990s when I was in school and you wanted to go work for Chevron or for Shell or a big bank, like this this generation feels a little different. Uh and not something that has pros and cons, but uh it's a very smart group of students here.

SPEAKER_01 26:33

You're hearing from leaders, you're hearing from CEOs. Uh what's the most common concern that you feel is in in the minds of the business leaders of the world that come to you for advice?

SPEAKER_00 26:45

Aaron Powell Yeah, I mentioned earlier the concern about the US and what the long-term trajectory is there. I think for Canada specifically, and I'm sure you hear this all the time, Stuart, is you know, the tone is right, the talk is good, but what's the plan to get things into action? The first 14 major projects or projects of national interest are all ones that have a pretty good pathway. But what about the next 14, the 14 after that? You know, that that seems like a much heavier left, and of course the North Coast pipeline illustrates that challenge very well. But that said, I do think, you know, the vibe of PDAC, the vibe of most of the events I go to here is better than it has been as far as energy and resources, but obviously there's concern about the relationship with the U.S. and the situation in the Middle East as well.

SPEAKER_01 27:28

Aaron Ross Powell RJ, it's not long ago that I spoke to another previous energy minister of Canada who told me quite confidently that by the year 2030 the world would be getting off oil, it would start to decline, and that was why there was really no practical reason to want to support the growth of any sort of oil or oil and gas infrastructure in Canada. Um it it it looks to me like that advice has not uh been listened to by the world. What's what is the trend that you're seeing emerge?

SPEAKER_00 27:58

I have a very strong view on that statement, Stuart, and I'm glad you brought that up because I think it's a mistake for government to try to predict the future in either direction, either we're getting off of oil or that we're going back to like 2005 type conditions of an unconstrained growth path for oil. I think what we should do is focus on creating conditions for projects and for companies that know how to take those kind of risks, to take those risks, not at the taxpayer's expense, but figuring out where the customers are, where the opportunities to sell oil and gas are at the project level, and then making their own calculations about um, you know, what pricing will be or what supply and demand are going to be. I'm not sure when the government decided to get in that business of deciding what was and not in demand in the market, but I really strongly feel that that should be left to the industry itself and its investors to take those risks. And right now, I think clearly the markets are tightening for oil and gas. Uh that could change again in the future, but it comes down to an individual project, finding individual customers, and having economics that that work and make sense. And the more I think we can focus on that, and the government can enable that process, the better off we're going to be, and it should avoid kind of declarative statements about the future, which none of us know.

SPEAKER_01 29:09

Well, it's been great spending time with you today. This is RJ Johnston at the University of Calgary. You study the global energy story and your advice is sought after from leaders around the world. If you enjoyed today's discussion, please subscribe to Power Struggle wherever you get your podcasts on Spotify, Apple, on YouTube if you're watching it on video. And we have other platforms too. If this episode gave you a new perspective, share it with someone who cares about energy, these influential future directions. Thanks for listening and stay curious, stay engaged, and we'll see you next time on Power Struggle.